Carrier Global: Long-Term Growth Potential Amid Near-Term ChallengesWe lower estimates on the lower Resi outlook and lower our PT to $90, or ~17x 2026E EBITDA. 2025 Resi Outlook Cut. Carrier management is now expecting 3Q resi volumes to be down ~40% + (prior: down 15%). Price and mix will likely be a few points lower than initially expected, though still up DD. The company expects an aggressive channel destocking, with field inventory down ~15% at the end of 3Q and back to 2017/18 levels exiting 4Q. Given the structurally high resi HVAC margins, flow through will be significant and represents a ~$0.20-$0.25 headwind to 3Q EPS, a ~50% decremental. We are also lowering 4Q estimates by $0.20/shr given the restocking actions. Recent Data. We were not surprised by the reduction in resi demand forecasts as we have noted resi markets will be weak and noisy this year (read HERE).