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Trane Technologies (TT)
NYSE:TT

Trane Technologies (TT) AI Stock Analysis

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TT

Trane Technologies

(NYSE:TT)

Rating:81Outperform
Price Target:
$498.00
â–²(17.74%Upside)
Trane Technologies' strong financial performance and positive earnings call significantly contribute to its high score. Technical indicators show bullish momentum, though valuation suggests the stock is expensive. Corporate events indicate strong governance support, but the analyst 'Sell' rating introduces some caution.
Positive Factors
Analyst Upgrade
Analyst upgrades the rating from equal-weight to overweight based on the belief that Trane Technologies is headed toward top-tier compounder status, valued with a quality-growth premium.
Earnings Performance
Trane’s 4Q24 revenue and EPS came in above both our estimates and consensus, driven primarily by better than forecast Americas and APAC segment.
Long-term Growth Potential
Trane has been upgraded to a Buy, with a DCF-derived target price of USD415, indicating confidence in its long-term growth potential.
Negative Factors
Backlog and Currency Headwinds
Backlog is down ~2% at $6.75bn, however the company adjusted $0.5bn of backlog on currency headwinds, transport normalization, and new down payment policy.
Order Challenges
Tougher order setup for H1, lingering DeepSeek rumblings could create some investor angst.
Tariff and Economic Uncertainty
Uncertainties in the tariff landscape and concerns about consumer and economic growth create an uncertain outlook for US industrial stocks.

Trane Technologies (TT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Trane Technologies Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTrane Technologies plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the designing, manufacturing, selling, and servicing of solutions for heating, ventilation, air conditioning, and transport refrigeration. It offers air conditioners, exchangers, and handlers; airside and terminal devices; auxiliary power units; chillers; coils and condensers; gensets; furnaces; heat pumps; home automation products; humidifiers; hybrid and non-diesel transport refrigeration, and ice energy storage solutions; indoor air quality assessments and related products; large and light commercial unitary products; motor replacements; refrigerant reclamation products; thermostats/controls; transport heater products; variable refrigerant flow products; and water source heat pumps. The company also provides building management, control, ductless, geothermal, package heating and cooling, temporary heating and cooling, and unitary systems; bus, rail, and multi-pipe heating, ventilation, and air conditioning systems; and container, cryogenic, diesel-powered, electric-powered trailer and truck, hybrid-powered trailer, industrial, rail, self-powered truck, trailer, and vehicle-powered truck refrigeration systems, as well as aftermarket and OEM parts and supplies. In addition, it offers energy and facility management, installation and performance contracting, repair and maintenance, and rental services. It markets and sells its products under the Trane and Thermo King brands through sales offices, distributors, and dealers in the United States; and through sales and service companies with a supporting chain of distributors worldwide. The company was formerly known as Ingersoll-Rand Plc and changed its name to Trane Technologies plc in March 2020. Trane Technologies plc was founded in 1885 and is headquartered in Swords, Ireland.
How the Company Makes MoneyTrane Technologies makes money through the sale of HVAC systems, services, and solutions, catering to both residential and commercial markets. The company generates revenue from the manufacturing and sale of its products, as well as from service agreements, maintenance contracts, and parts sales. Key revenue streams include the commercial HVAC segment, which serves businesses and institutions, and the residential segment, which caters to homeowners. Additionally, the company benefits from its transport refrigeration business, providing solutions for temperature-controlled transportation. Strategic partnerships and a focus on energy efficiency and sustainability are critical factors contributing to Trane Technologies' earnings, as they align with global trends towards reducing carbon footprints and improving energy efficiency.

Trane Technologies Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Adjusted EBITDA by Geography
Adjusted EBITDA by Geography
Highlights profitability across different regions, revealing where the company is most efficient and where it may face challenges or opportunities for margin improvement.
Chart InsightsTrane Technologies' Americas segment is experiencing robust growth, with recent quarters showing record EBITDA levels, driven by strong Commercial HVAC bookings. Despite challenges in transport refrigeration and tariff impacts, the company is effectively managing costs. EMEA's EBITDA margin is under pressure due to reinvestment, while APAC faces headwinds in China. Overall, the company's strategic pricing and cost management are expected to sustain high performance, with guidance indicating continued strong growth for 2025.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Trane Technologies Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 19.93%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Trane Technologies reported strong financial performance in Q1 2025 with record bookings in Commercial HVAC and resilient growth in residential and service sectors. However, challenges remain in the China market, transport refrigeration, and from tariff impacts. Despite these challenges, the company is confident in its ability to manage costs and maintain strong shareholder returns.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Q1 Financial Performance
Trane Technologies delivered strong financial results in Q1 2025, with 11% organic revenue growth, adjusted EBITDA margin expansion of 130 basis points, and 26% adjusted EPS growth.
Record Americas Commercial HVAC Bookings
The Americas segment set a new quarterly record for Commercial HVAC bookings, surpassing last year's high, demonstrating robust demand.
Resilient Residential and Service Business Growth
Residential bookings were up mid-teens and revenues up high teens, while the Service business continues to grow with a high single-digit compound annual growth rate since 2019.
Capital Allocation and Shareholder Returns
In Q1, approximately $775 million was deployed through dividends, M&A, and share repurchases, with a 12% dividend increase and $5.6 billion remaining under share repurchase authorizations.
Negative Updates
Challenges in China
The market in China remains challenging with bookings and revenues down low 30s and high 20s, respectively, against tough prior year comparisons.
Transport Refrigeration Market Decline
Transport refrigeration bookings in the Americas were down low single digits, with markets expected to decline about 20% for the year.
Tariff Impacts and Cost Inflation
The company is anticipating a cost impact from tariffs of approximately $250 million to $275 million in 2025 and is implementing pricing actions to offset these costs.
EMEA Margin Decline
Adjusted EBITDA margin in EMEA declined by 190 basis points due to high business reinvestment during the shoulder season.
Company Guidance
In the Trane Technologies Q1 2025 earnings call, the company highlighted strong financial performance with an 11% organic revenue growth and a 130 basis point expansion in adjusted EBITDA margin. Additionally, adjusted EPS grew by 26%, and the book-to-bill ratio was 113% for the enterprise. The Americas segment saw particularly robust bookings, especially in the Commercial HVAC sector, which set a new record. The company's backlog increased by approximately $500 million, with $400 million attributed to the Americas Commercial HVAC business. Despite challenges in the transport refrigeration markets, where end markets were down about 25%, Trane Technologies outperformed with mid-single-digit revenue growth. The company maintained its guidance for 2025, targeting 7% to 8% organic revenue growth and adjusted EPS of $12.70 to $12.90, expecting to perform towards the high end of these ranges. The call emphasized the company's ability to navigate dynamic macroeconomic conditions and mitigate tariff impacts through strategic pricing and cost management.

Trane Technologies Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Trane Technologies demonstrates robust financial health with significant revenue growth, healthy profit margins, and strong cash flow generation. The company maintains a strong balance sheet, although the moderate level of debt presents some risk.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Trane Technologies shows strong performance with a consistent increase in revenue, evidenced by significant revenue growth from 2020 to the TTM period. Gross profit and net profit margins are healthy, with a gross profit margin of 35.97% and a net profit margin of 13.27% in the TTM. The company has maintained stable EBIT and EBITDA margins, demonstrating operational efficiency and profitability.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The company's balance sheet reflects a solid financial position with a reasonable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.49 and an equity ratio of 48.85% in the TTM. Return on equity is robust at 21.09%, indicating effective management of shareholder equity. However, some potential risks include the relatively high total debt, which could impact financial flexibility.
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
Trane Technologies exhibits strong cash flow performance with a substantial free cash flow growth rate in the TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is favorable at 1.56, suggesting efficient cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 1.42 further supports the company's ability to generate cash beyond its earnings, highlighting operational strength.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
20.31B19.84B17.68B15.99B14.14B12.45B
Gross Profit
7.30B7.08B5.86B4.96B4.47B3.80B
EBIT
3.69B3.50B2.89B2.42B2.02B1.53B
EBITDA
4.06B3.86B3.15B2.72B2.32B1.83B
Net Income Common Stockholders
2.74B2.57B2.02B1.76B1.42B854.90M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
860.50M1.59B1.10B1.22B2.16B3.29B
Total Assets
20.12B20.15B19.39B18.08B18.06B18.16B
Total Debt
4.77B4.77B4.78B4.84B4.84B5.27B
Net Debt
3.91B3.18B3.68B3.62B2.68B1.98B
Total Liabilities
12.60B12.66B12.37B11.98B11.79B11.73B
Stockholders Equity
7.49B7.46B7.00B6.11B6.27B6.43B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
2.83B2.77B2.09B1.21B1.37B1.29B
Operating Cash Flow
3.23B3.15B2.39B1.50B1.59B1.44B
Investing Cash Flow
-863.80M-562.90M-1.17B-540.40M-545.70M-376.20M
Financing Cash Flow
-2.35B-2.02B-1.35B-1.85B-2.13B884.30M

Trane Technologies Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price422.96
Price Trends
50DMA
386.10
Positive
100DMA
370.99
Positive
200DMA
377.69
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
9.72
Positive
RSI
58.42
Neutral
STOCH
33.20
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TT, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 422.96 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 427.44, above the 50-day MA of 386.10, and above the 200-day MA of 377.69, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 9.72 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 58.42 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.20 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TT.

Trane Technologies Risk Analysis

Trane Technologies disclosed 30 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Trane Technologies reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Trane Technologies Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
TTTT
81
Outperform
$94.04B35.0838.45%0.89%11.43%28.49%
81
Outperform
$61.51B16.4725.69%1.25%0.14%202.13%
CSCSL
78
Outperform
$16.36B10.3333.11%1.06%-0.14%135.52%
JCJCI
74
Outperform
$67.71B27.4414.92%1.44%-8.39%51.56%
LILII
74
Outperform
$19.70B24.75131.48%0.83%7.78%30.10%
67
Neutral
$6.39B41.2719.85%0.51%8.24%-11.66%
66
Neutral
$4.51B12.295.40%3.67%4.15%-12.21%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TT
Trane Technologies
422.96
92.52
28.00%
AAON
Aaon
75.85
0.74
0.99%
CSL
Carlisle Companies
368.79
-40.71
-9.94%
JCI
Johnson Controls
103.19
33.93
48.99%
LII
Lennox International
550.95
15.28
2.85%
CARR
Carrier Global
72.48
9.06
14.29%

Trane Technologies Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Trane Technologies Shareholders Approve Key Governance Decisions
Positive
Jun 6, 2025

At the 2025 Annual General Meeting, Trane Technologies‘ shareholders elected twelve directors, approved executive compensation, and appointed PriceWaterhouseCoopers as independent auditors for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025. Additionally, shareholders renewed the directors’ authority to issue shares and reallot treasury shares, indicating strong support for the company’s governance and strategic financial decisions.

The most recent analyst rating on (TT) stock is a Sell with a $295.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Trane Technologies stock, see the TT Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board Changes
Trane Technologies Announces Retirement of Senior VP
Neutral
May 28, 2025

On May 28, 2025, Evan M. Turtz, Senior Vice President, General Counsel, and Secretary of Trane Technologies, announced his decision to retire later in the year. His retirement will follow a transition period with his successor to ensure a smooth leadership transition.

The most recent analyst rating on (TT) stock is a Hold with a $407.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Trane Technologies stock, see the TT Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and Financing
Trane Technologies Secures New $1 Billion Credit Agreement
Neutral
May 28, 2025

On May 27, 2025, Trane Technologies entered into a new $1 billion senior unsecured revolving credit agreement, replacing the previous agreement set to expire in 2026. This new agreement, effective until 2030, will be used for working capital, supporting commercial paper programs, and other corporate purposes, with obligations guaranteed by the company and its subsidiaries.

The most recent analyst rating on (TT) stock is a Hold with a $407.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Trane Technologies stock, see the TT Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.