Aaon (AAON) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $8.51B
• Dividend Yield: 0.34%
• Average Volume (3M): 750.43K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 54.9
• Beta (1Y): 1.48
• Revenue Growth: 8.24%
• EPS Growth: -11.66%
• Country: US
• Employees: 4,812
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 90
• Industry: Construction
• EPS (TTM): 0.37
• Shares Outstanding: 81,366,135
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 583,804
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 750,426
• PEG Ratio: -8.87
• Price to Book (P/B): 10.01
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -49.43
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.99
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.73
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 21.53
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 9.22
• 1Y Price Target: $110.00
• Price Target Upside: 10.07% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: $118.00 ▲( 18.07% Upside)

AAON's strong financial fundamentals and strategic investments are tempered by technical weaknesses and valuation concerns. While the company exhibits robust revenue growth and effective balance sheet management, overbought technical indicators and high P/E ratio warrant caution. Earnings call insights suggest growth potential, albeit with notable operational challenges.

Positive Factors

Backlog and Future Performance

Record backlog surpassing $1 billion gives confidence in the company's future performance.

Product Performance

BASX-branded sales growth of 375% significantly exceeded expectations, indicating strong product performance.

Negative Factors

Production Issues

R454B compressor shortages caused production to slow, impacting operations.

Sales and Margins

Oklahoma sales and margins were well below expectations due to customer 'pushouts' related to the refrigerant change.

Aaon Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

AAON, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in engineering, manufacturing, marketing, and selling air conditioning and heating equipment in the United States and Canada. The company operates through three segments: AAON Oklahoma, AAON Coil Products, and BasX. It offers rooftop units, data center cooling solutions, cleanroom systems, chillers, packaged outdoor mechanical rooms, air handling units, makeup air units, energy recovery units, condensing units, geothermal/water-source heat pumps, coils, and controls. The company markets and sells its products to retail, manufacturing, educational, lodging, supermarket, data centers, medical and pharmaceutical, and other commercial industries. It sells its products through a network of independent manufacturer representative organizations and internal sales force. The company was incorporated in 1987 and is based in Tulsa, Oklahoma.

How the Company Makes Money

Aaon generates revenue primarily through the sale of its HVAC equipment to commercial and industrial clients. The company designs and manufactures a wide array of customized HVAC solutions, which are sold directly to end-users or through a network of distributors and independent sales representatives. Aaon's revenue streams are bolstered by its commitment to innovation and product differentiation, which allows it to offer energy-efficient and environmentally-friendly solutions that meet specific customer needs. Additionally, aftermarket services, including parts and maintenance support, contribute to the company's earnings, ensuring ongoing engagement with clients and extending the lifecycle of its products.

Aaon Financial Statement Overview

Summary

AAON has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a 42.6% increase from 2021 to 2025, solid profitability, and a stable financial position with low leverage. However, challenges in cash flow management and slight declines in certain profitability margins are noted.

Income Statement

AAON has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a 42.6% increase from 2021 to 2025. The company maintains solid profitability with a consistent gross profit margin around 31%, and a net profit margin improving to 12.6% in TTM. Despite a slight decline in EBIT margin to 15.6% from 18.2% in 2023, the company's margins remain strong in the industry.

Balance Sheet

AAON exhibits a stable financial position with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.02 in TTM, indicating minimal leverage risk. The return on equity is solid at 19.5%, reflecting efficient use of shareholders' funds. However, the equity ratio decreased to 62.7% in TTM, suggesting a slight increase in liabilities relative to assets.

Cash Flow

The company faces challenges in cash flow management, with negative free cash flow of -$164.995 million in TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio dropped significantly, indicating potential issues in cash conversion. Despite these challenges, the overall cash flow remains positive due to strong operating cash flow historically.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
1.26B	1.20B	1.17B	888.79M	534.52M	514.55M
	Gross Profit
391.23M	397.11M	399.02M	237.57M	137.83M	155.85M
	EBIT
197.26M	209.12M	227.49M	126.76M	69.25M	101.84M
	EBITDA
197.26M	209.12M	241.76M	127.48M	69.39M	120.99M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
158.84M	168.56M	177.62M	100.38M	58.76M	79.01M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
994.00K	14.00K	287.00K	5.45M	2.86M	79.03M
	Total Assets
1.30B	1.18B	941.44M	813.90M	650.18M	449.01M
	Total Debt
267.83M	170.96M	50.55M	78.25M	41.58M	202.00K
	Net Debt
266.84M	170.95M	50.26M	72.80M	38.72M	-78.82M
	Total Liabilities
484.34M	350.65M	206.21M	253.19M	184.01M	98.14M
	Stockholders Equity
815.85M	824.58M	735.22M	560.71M	466.17M	350.87M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-165.00M	-3.13M	49.40M	-14.71M	5.82M	61.01M
	Operating Cash Flow
56.14M	192.53M	158.90M	61.32M	61.18M	128.81M
	Investing Cash Flow
-224.75M	-213.07M	-109.31M	-76.21M	-158.72M	-61.27M
	Financing Cash Flow
107.82M	18.03M	-46.51M	17.36M	18.73M	-29.63M

Aaon Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 99.94
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AAON, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 99.94 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 99.12, above the 50-day MA of 87.88, and below the 200-day MA of 105.08, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 4.52 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 55.99 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 38.73 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AAON.

Aaon Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TT	76 Outperform	$95.85B	35.76	38.45%	0.80%	11.43%	28.49%
JCI	74 Outperform	$64.26B	26.04	14.92%	1.52%	-8.39%	51.56%
LII	74 Outperform	$21.19B	26.61	131.48%	0.81%	7.78%	30.10%
AAON	71 Outperform	$8.51B	54.92	19.85%	0.34%	8.24%	-11.66%
OC	71 Outperform	$12.01B	50.68	11.93%	1.91%	16.16%	-77.11%
CARR	71 Outperform	$64.26B	17.20	25.69%	1.10%	0.14%	202.13%
Sector *	64 Neutral	$4.39B	11.81	5.17%	249.38%	3.98%	-12.17%

Aaon Corporate Events

AAON Announces Board Expansion and Dividend Declaration

On May 13, 2025, AAON, Inc. held its Annual Meeting where stockholders elected board members, ratified Grant Thornton, LLP as the independent public accounting firm for 2025, and approved executive compensation. The company also announced an increase in its Board of Directors from eight to nine members, appointing CEO Matt J. Tobolski as a new director. Additionally, AAON declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.10 per share, payable on June 27, 2025, to stockholders of record as of June 6, 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (AAON) stock is a Buy with a $110.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aaon stock, see the AAON Stock Forecast page.

AAON Reports Strong Q1 2025 Results Amid Challenges

On April 30, 2025, AAON, Inc. announced its first quarter results for 2025, highlighting a strong performance with a 22.9% increase in net sales compared to the previous year. The company reported significant growth in its BASX-branded products, with net sales up 374.8% year-over-year, driven by demand for data center equipment. However, AAON-branded products faced challenges due to supply chain issues with R454B refrigerant components, resulting in a 23.0% decline in net sales for the Oklahoma segment. Despite these challenges, the company achieved a record total backlog of $1.0 billion, reflecting strong bookings for both BASX and AAON-branded equipment.

AAON Executives to Present at Sidoti Conference

On March 17, 2025, AAON announced that key executives, including CEO Gary Fields and CFO Rebecca Thompson, will present at the Sidoti Spring 2025 Small-Cap Conference on March 20, 2025. The presentation, which will be held virtually, is expected to provide insights into AAON’s strategic direction and market positioning, potentially impacting stakeholders’ perception of the company’s future performance.

AAON Reports 2024 Financial Results Amid Challenges

On February 27, 2025, AAON announced its fourth quarter and full year 2024 financial results, highlighting a 2.9% decrease in net sales for the quarter compared to the previous year. Despite challenges such as an industry-regulated refrigerant transition and weakened nonresidential construction activity, the company saw significant growth in its BASX brand, which impacted the data center market with a new liquid cooling solution. The company’s total backlog increased by 70% from the end of 2023, and production capacity was expanded with new facilities in Texas and Tennessee. However, the AAON Oklahoma segment experienced a 16.1% decline in sales due to macroeconomic conditions and the refrigerant transition. The company also announced a $100 million share repurchase program, indicating confidence in its market position.