Aaon (AAON) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $6.78B
• Dividend Yield: 0.43%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.51M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 56.7
• Beta (1Y): 1.52
• Revenue Growth: 5.39%
• EPS Growth: -34.28%
• Country: US
• Employees: 4,812
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 78
• Industry: Construction
• EPS (TTM): 0.22
• Shares Outstanding: 81,530,680
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,144,263
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,513,960
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.95
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 5.14
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 17.93
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 28.40
• 1Y Price Target: $96.75
• Price Target Upside: 16.41% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: $89.00 ▲(7.09% Upside)

AAON's overall stock score reflects strong profitability and a stable balance sheet, but is tempered by cash flow challenges and a high valuation. Technical indicators suggest moderate strength, while recent earnings call and corporate events highlight both opportunities and operational challenges.

Positive Factors

Data Center Projects

The Applied Digital data center order is meaningful and showcases AAON's customization edge.

Order Growth

AAON-branded orders were strong with backlog up 93% year-over-year.

Production Performance

Production has improved as ERP has stabilized, leading to better production rates than before.

Negative Factors

ERP Issues Impact

ERP issues hurt AAON-branded production, causing missed expectations in sales.

Margin Outlook

Shares closed down 16% following disappointing midterm outlooks for both gross margin and top-line growth.

Share Price Reaction

Shares are down 15% on a bigger EPS miss and guide down than analysts thought, due mainly to one-time ERP issues.

Aaon Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

AAON, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in engineering, manufacturing, marketing, and selling air conditioning and heating equipment in the United States and Canada. The company operates through three segments: AAON Oklahoma, AAON Coil Products, and BasX. It offers rooftop units, data center cooling solutions, cleanroom systems, chillers, packaged outdoor mechanical rooms, air handling units, makeup air units, energy recovery units, condensing units, geothermal/water-source heat pumps, coils, and controls. The company markets and sells its products to retail, manufacturing, educational, lodging, supermarket, data centers, medical and pharmaceutical, and other commercial industries. It sells its products through a network of independent manufacturer representative organizations and internal sales force. The company was incorporated in 1987 and is based in Tulsa, Oklahoma.

How the Company Makes Money

Aaon generates revenue primarily through the sale of its HVAC products, which includes packaged units, chillers, and air handling systems. The company focuses on providing energy-efficient solutions that not only meet regulatory standards but also appeal to cost-conscious customers seeking long-term savings on energy costs. Key revenue streams include direct sales to contractors and distributors, as well as large-scale projects with commercial clients. Additionally, Aaon benefits from partnerships with construction firms and mechanical contractors that integrate its products into larger building projects. The company also offers aftermarket services and parts, contributing to recurring revenue. Factors such as rising energy efficiency regulations and increased demand for sustainable building practices provide a favorable market environment for Aaon’s growth.

Aaon Financial Statement Overview

Summary

AAON demonstrates strong profitability and a stable balance sheet, with a robust debt-to-equity ratio and strong return on equity. However, challenges in cash flow management, including negative free cash flow and a decline in revenue growth, are concerning.

Income Statement

Aaon shows strong profitability with a consistent gross profit margin around 28-34% and a net profit margin above 9%. However, recent TTM data indicates a decline in revenue growth rate (-15.9%), which is a concern. Despite this, the company maintains healthy EBIT and EBITDA margins, reflecting operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet is robust with a manageable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.42 in the TTM period, indicating low leverage. Return on equity remains strong at 14.9%, showcasing effective use of equity. The equity ratio is solid, reflecting financial stability.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals challenges, with negative free cash flow in the TTM period and a low operating cash flow to net income ratio of 0.07. Although there was a significant free cash flow growth rate of 35.1%, the negative free cash flow to net income ratio indicates potential liquidity issues.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.26B	1.20B	1.17B	888.79M	534.52M	514.55M
Gross Profit	360.87M	397.11M	399.02M	237.57M	137.83M	155.85M
EBITDA	227.75M	272.42M	274.79M	162.59M	99.73M	120.99M
Net Income	122.09M	168.56M	177.62M	100.38M	58.76M	79.01M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.40B	1.18B	941.44M	813.90M	650.18M	449.01M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	14.00K	14.00K	287.00K	5.45M	2.86M	79.03M
Total Debt	335.78M	170.96M	50.55M	78.25M	41.58M	202.00K
Total Liabilities	566.67M	350.65M	206.21M	253.19M	184.01M	98.14M
Stockholders Equity	832.75M	824.58M	735.22M	560.71M	466.17M	350.87M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-244.72M	-3.13M	54.60M	7.29M	5.82M	61.01M
Operating Cash Flow	-3.91M	192.53M	158.90M	61.32M	61.18M	128.81M
Investing Cash Flow	-227.17M	-213.07M	-109.31M	-76.21M	-158.72M	-61.27M
Financing Cash Flow	182.83M	18.03M	-46.51M	17.36M	18.73M	-29.63M

Aaon Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 83.11
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AAON, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 83.11 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 80.82, above the 50-day MA of 78.76, and below the 200-day MA of 100.01, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.94 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 91.19 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AAON.

Aaon Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TT	75 Outperform	$95.35B	34.00	38.89%	0.83%	10.20%	24.57%
LII	72 Outperform	$21.05B	25.62	112.94%	0.79%	7.92%	29.72%
Sector *	71 Outperform	¥267.81B	14.79	8.32%	2.78%	6.12%	11.24%
JCI	68 Neutral	$68.72B	31.19	12.52%	1.41%	-13.10%	40.62%
OC	68 Neutral	$12.50B	39.43	12.26%	1.72%	13.08%	-67.65%
CARR	68 Neutral	$55.96B	26.24	10.79%	1.32%	-5.24%	-33.37%
AAON	66 Neutral	$6.78B	56.66	15.52%	0.43%	5.39%	-34.28%

Aaon Corporate Events

AAON Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend Announcement

On August 14, 2025, AAON, Inc. announced that its Board of Directors declared a regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.10 per share, payable on September 26, 2025, to stockholders of record as of September 5, 2025. This announcement reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to providing value to its shareholders and may positively impact its market positioning by reinforcing investor confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (AAON) stock is a Buy with a $110.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aaon stock, see the AAON Stock Forecast page.

AAON Reports Q2 2025 Results Amid Sales Decline

On August 11, 2025, AAON, Inc. reported its second quarter 2025 results, revealing a 0.6% decline in net sales to $311.6 million due to supply chain constraints and ERP system implementation challenges. Despite these setbacks, the company experienced strong demand for its BASX-branded data center equipment and anticipates production improvements in the second half of the year. However, the company has revised its full-year 2025 outlook downward due to ongoing inefficiencies, particularly at its Longview facility.

The most recent analyst rating on (AAON) stock is a Buy with a $110.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aaon stock, see the AAON Stock Forecast page.

AAON Hosts Investor Day at NASDAQ MarketSite

On June 10, 2025, AAON will host an Investor Day at NASDAQ MarketSite in New York, featuring presentations from the CEO, CFO, and other executives. The event aims to provide insights into AAON’s strategic direction, highlighting its focus on innovation, customization, and automation in the HVAC industry. The company is transitioning to a brand-based structure to enhance efficiency and better leverage its manufacturing capabilities. This reorganization is expected to improve investor understanding and drive sustainable growth, particularly in the rapidly expanding data center market.

The most recent analyst rating on (AAON) stock is a Buy with a $110.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aaon stock, see the AAON Stock Forecast page.

AAON Expands Loan Agreement to Boost Flexibility

On May 29, 2025, AAON, Inc. and its subsidiaries entered into a Fifth Amendment to their existing Loan Agreement with several lenders, increasing the revolving commitment from $200 million to $500 million. This amendment, which extends the maturity date to May 27, 2030, aims to enhance the company’s financial flexibility by refinancing existing term loans and adjusting the terms of their credit facilities, potentially strengthening AAON’s market position and operational capabilities.

The most recent analyst rating on (AAON) stock is a Buy with a $110.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aaon stock, see the AAON Stock Forecast page.

AAON Announces Board Expansion and Dividend Declaration

On May 13, 2025, AAON, Inc. held its Annual Meeting where stockholders elected board members, ratified Grant Thornton, LLP as the independent public accounting firm for 2025, and approved executive compensation. The company also announced an increase in its Board of Directors from eight to nine members, appointing CEO Matt J. Tobolski as a new director. Additionally, AAON declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.10 per share, payable on June 27, 2025, to stockholders of record as of June 6, 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (AAON) stock is a Buy with a $110.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aaon stock, see the AAON Stock Forecast page.