Aaon (AAON) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $6.13B
• Dividend Yield: 0.53%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.06M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 62.5
• Beta (1Y): 1.45
• Revenue Growth: 8.77%
• EPS Growth: -47.50%
• Country: US
• Employees: 4,812
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Construction
• EPS (TTM): 0.37
• Shares Outstanding: 81,634,056
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 917,225
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,056,329
• PEG Ratio: -10.38
• Price to Book (P/B): 11.63
• Price to Sales (P/S): 7.99
• P/FCF Ratio: -3.07K
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.33
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 6.19
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 23.03
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 39.08
• 1Y Price Target: $119.00
• Price Target Upside: 58.14% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 62 Neutral
• Price Target: $88.00 ▲(16.94% Upside)

AAON's overall stock score is driven by solid financial performance and positive earnings call insights, but is tempered by bearish technical indicators and high valuation concerns. The company's strong revenue growth and effective debt management are significant strengths, while challenges in profitability margins and cash flow generation are notable risks.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Consistent revenue growth indicates strong market demand and effective sales strategies, supporting long-term business expansion.

BASX Brand Performance

The significant growth in the BASX brand backlog highlights strong demand in the data center market, positioning Aaon for future growth.

Leadership Promotion

Leadership changes can drive innovation and strategic growth, leveraging experience to enhance product development and market positioning.

Negative Factors

Profitability Margins

Declining profitability margins can impact financial health, reducing the ability to reinvest in growth and innovation.

Cash Flow Challenges

Cash flow issues may limit operational flexibility and investment capacity, affecting long-term growth and stability.

Operational Inefficiencies

Operational inefficiencies can hinder production efficiency and cost management, impacting overall profitability and competitive positioning.

Aaon Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Aaon, Inc. (AAON) is a leading manufacturer of HVAC (heating, ventilation, and air conditioning) equipment, specializing in high-efficiency and environmentally friendly solutions for commercial and industrial applications. The company operates primarily in two segments: the production of air conditioning and heating products, and the manufacturing of custom air handling units. Aaon is known for its innovative designs and commitment to sustainability, offering products that help customers reduce energy consumption and operational costs.

How the Company Makes Money

Aaon generates revenue primarily through the sale of its HVAC equipment, which includes chillers, rooftop units, and air handlers. The company has a diverse customer base that includes contractors, wholesalers, and property owners in various sectors such as healthcare, education, and manufacturing. Key revenue streams are derived from direct sales, as well as aftermarket services, which include maintenance and replacement parts. Additionally, partnerships with contractors and distributors enhance market reach and facilitate project-based sales. The company's focus on energy-efficient products aligns with growing regulatory demands and customer preferences for sustainable solutions, further bolstering its earnings potential.

Aaon Financial Statement Overview

Summary

AAON shows solid revenue growth and effective debt management, but faces challenges in maintaining profitability margins and generating positive cash flows. The decline in profitability margins and negative cash flow are significant concerns.

Income Statement

The income statement shows a consistent revenue growth trend, with a TTM revenue growth rate of 4.53%. However, there is a noticeable decline in profitability margins, such as the gross profit margin dropping from 33.07% in 2024 to 26.88% in TTM. The net profit margin also decreased from 14.04% in 2024 to 7.62% in TTM. Despite these declines, the company has maintained positive revenue growth, which is a positive indicator.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a strong equity position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.21 in 2024, improving to 0.0 in TTM, indicating effective debt management. The return on equity (ROE) has decreased from 20.44% in 2024 to 12.02% in TTM, suggesting a decline in profitability relative to shareholder equity. The equity ratio remains stable, indicating a solid financial structure.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement reveals challenges in cash generation, with negative operating cash flow and free cash flow in TTM. The free cash flow growth rate improved significantly to 37.36% in TTM, but the operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating cash flow issues. The free cash flow to net income ratio is high at 6.58, suggesting reliance on non-operational cash sources.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.32B	1.20B	1.17B	888.79M	534.52M	514.55M
Gross Profit	353.57M	397.11M	399.02M	237.57M	137.83M	155.85M
EBITDA	208.38M	272.42M	274.79M	162.59M	99.73M	120.99M
Net Income	100.25M	168.56M	177.62M	100.38M	58.76M	79.01M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.53B	1.18B	941.44M	813.90M	650.18M	449.01M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.04M	14.00K	287.00K	5.45M	2.86M	79.03M
Total Debt	360.14M	170.96M	50.55M	78.25M	41.58M	202.00K
Total Liabilities	670.96M	350.65M	206.21M	253.19M	184.01M	98.14M
Stockholders Equity	863.11M	824.58M	735.22M	560.71M	466.17M	350.87M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-231.91M	-3.13M	54.60M	7.29M	5.82M	61.01M
Operating Cash Flow	-17.94M	192.53M	158.90M	61.32M	61.18M	128.81M
Investing Cash Flow	-237.95M	-213.07M	-109.31M	-76.21M	-158.72M	-61.27M
Financing Cash Flow	251.49M	18.03M	-46.51M	17.36M	18.73M	-29.63M

Aaon Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 75.25
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AAON, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 75.25 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 84.13, below the 50-day MA of 92.95, and below the 200-day MA of 86.93, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -5.28 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 31.19 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.85 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AAON.

Aaon Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CSL	70 Outperform	$13.84B	18.58	32.36%	1.28%	0.14%	3.88%
TT	70 Outperform	$86.45B	30.30	37.07%	0.95%	8.58%	20.37%
JCI	70 Outperform	$73.31B	44.24	11.86%	1.27%	-10.19%	100.65%
CARR	66 Neutral	$44.81B	21.41	9.44%	1.65%	-7.93%	-35.00%
LII	64 Neutral	$17.38B	20.87	92.25%	0.96%	3.77%	12.46%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
AAON	62 Neutral	$6.13B	62.47	12.08%	0.53%	8.77%	-47.50%

Aaon Corporate Events

AAON Announces New Executive Vice President Promotion

On December 1, 2025, AAON, Inc. announced the promotion of Doug Wichman to Executive Vice President and General Manager of its AAON Business Unit, effective January 1, 2026. Wichman, who has been with the company since 2012, will succeed Stephen Wakefield, who will transition to an advisory role. This leadership change is expected to continue AAON’s trajectory of innovation and growth, leveraging Wichman’s extensive experience and leadership skills to drive strategic business plans and product development.

Aaon Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend for Shareholders

On November 12, 2025, AAON, Inc. announced that its Board of Directors declared a regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.10 per share, payable on December 18, 2025, to stockholders of record as of November 26, 2025. This announcement reflects AAON’s ongoing commitment to providing value to its shareholders, reinforcing its stable financial position and industry leadership in the HVAC sector.

AAON Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results Amid Market Gains

On November 6, 2025, AAON, Inc. reported strong third-quarter results for 2025, driven by operational improvements and market share gains. The company achieved a 17.4% increase in net sales to $384.2 million, despite a year-over-year decline in GAAP diluted EPS by 41.3%. The quarter saw a record backlog of $1.32 billion, reflecting robust demand, particularly in data center applications. The BASX brand experienced a significant rise in sales, primarily due to increased demand for liquid cooling equipment. Operational efficiencies, including improved ERP system integration, contributed to sequential improvements in production throughput and gross margins. The company remains confident in its growth trajectory, supported by strong bookings and expanded production capacity.

Aaon Highlights Growth at D.A. Davidson Conference

On September 18, 2025, Aaon participated in D.A. Davidson’s Diversified Industrials & Services Conference, where CEO Matt Tobolski presented the company’s strategic growth opportunities and market leadership in the HVAC industry. The presentation highlighted Aaon’s focus on innovation and its strategic positioning in the expanding data center market, which is expected to drive significant growth and returns for stakeholders.