Aaon (AAON) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $6.80B
• Dividend Yield: 0.53%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.06M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 69.2
• Beta (1Y): 1.44
• Revenue Growth: 8.77%
• EPS Growth: -47.50%
• Country: US
• Employees: 4,812
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Construction
• EPS (TTM): 0.37
• Shares Outstanding: 81,634,056
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 917,225
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,056,329
• PEG Ratio: -10.38
• Price to Book (P/B): 11.63
• Price to Sales (P/S): 7.99
• P/FCF Ratio: -3.07K
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.20
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 6.18
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 23.00
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 39.03
• 1Y Price Target: $119.00
• Price Target Upside: 49.10% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 61 Neutral
• Price Target: $83.00 ▲(4.00% Upside)

AAON scores as moderately positive overall, led by solid financial positioning but weighed down by weaker profitability and negative TTM operating/free cash flow. Technicals are the biggest near-term detractor given the stock’s downtrend and negative momentum, while valuation is also a headwind due to a high P/E and low yield. Offsetting these, the latest earnings call and recent corporate actions point to strong demand/backlog (especially BASX) and improving operational/cash-flow outlook.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Consistent revenue growth indicates strong demand for Aaon's products and services, supporting long-term market position and financial health.

Market Demand

The significant increase in BASX backlog reflects strong market demand, particularly in the data center sector, which supports future revenue growth.

Financial Flexibility

The expanded credit facility enhances Aaon's financial flexibility, enabling strategic investments and supporting growth initiatives.

Negative Factors

Profitability Decline

Declining profitability margins can strain financial performance, potentially impacting long-term sustainability and investment capacity.

Operational Inefficiencies

Operational inefficiencies, such as ERP implementation issues, can hinder productivity and profitability, affecting long-term operational efficiency.

Cash Flow Challenges

Negative cash flow indicates potential liquidity issues, which could limit Aaon's ability to invest in growth and manage financial obligations.

Aaon Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

AAON, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in engineering, manufacturing, marketing, and selling air conditioning and heating equipment in the United States and Canada. The company operates through three segments: AAON Oklahoma, AAON Coil Products, and BasX. It offers rooftop units, data center cooling solutions, cleanroom systems, chillers, packaged outdoor mechanical rooms, air handling units, makeup air units, energy recovery units, condensing units, geothermal/water-source heat pumps, coils, and controls. The company markets and sells its products to retail, manufacturing, educational, lodging, supermarket, data centers, medical and pharmaceutical, and other commercial industries. It sells its products through a network of independent manufacturer representative organizations and internal sales force. The company was incorporated in 1987 and is based in Tulsa, Oklahoma.

How the Company Makes Money

Aaon generates revenue primarily through the sale of its HVAC equipment, which includes chillers, rooftop units, and air handlers. The company has a diverse customer base that includes contractors, wholesalers, and property owners in various sectors such as healthcare, education, and manufacturing. Key revenue streams are derived from direct sales, as well as aftermarket services, which include maintenance and replacement parts. Additionally, partnerships with contractors and distributors enhance market reach and facilitate project-based sales. The company's focus on energy-efficient products aligns with growing regulatory demands and customer preferences for sustainable solutions, further bolstering its earnings potential.

Aaon Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Revenue is still growing (TTM revenue growth 4.53%) and leverage appears well-controlled in the statements (debt-to-equity 0.0 in TTM), but profitability has weakened materially (gross margin down to 26.88% TTM from 33.07% in 2024; net margin down to 7.62% from 14.04%) and TTM operating/free cash flow are negative, which drags the score.

Income Statement

The income statement shows a consistent revenue growth trend, with a TTM revenue growth rate of 4.53%. However, there is a noticeable decline in profitability margins, such as the gross profit margin dropping from 33.07% in 2024 to 26.88% in TTM. The net profit margin also decreased from 14.04% in 2024 to 7.62% in TTM. Despite these declines, the company has maintained positive revenue growth, which is a positive indicator.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a strong equity position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.21 in 2024, improving to 0.0 in TTM, indicating effective debt management. The return on equity (ROE) has decreased from 20.44% in 2024 to 12.02% in TTM, suggesting a decline in profitability relative to shareholder equity. The equity ratio remains stable, indicating a solid financial structure.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement reveals challenges in cash generation, with negative operating cash flow and free cash flow in TTM. The free cash flow growth rate improved significantly to 37.36% in TTM, but the operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating cash flow issues. The free cash flow to net income ratio is high at 6.58, suggesting reliance on non-operational cash sources.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.32B	1.20B	1.17B	888.79M	534.52M	514.55M
Gross Profit	353.57M	397.11M	399.02M	237.57M	137.83M	155.85M
EBITDA	208.38M	272.42M	274.79M	162.59M	99.73M	120.99M
Net Income	100.25M	168.56M	177.62M	100.38M	58.76M	79.01M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.53B	1.18B	941.44M	813.90M	650.18M	449.01M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.04M	14.00K	287.00K	5.45M	2.86M	79.03M
Total Debt	377.95M	170.96M	50.55M	78.25M	41.58M	202.00K
Total Liabilities	670.96M	350.65M	206.21M	253.19M	184.01M	98.14M
Stockholders Equity	863.11M	824.58M	735.22M	560.71M	466.17M	350.87M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-231.91M	-3.13M	54.60M	7.29M	5.82M	61.01M
Operating Cash Flow	-17.94M	192.53M	158.90M	61.32M	61.18M	128.81M
Investing Cash Flow	-237.95M	-213.07M	-109.31M	-76.21M	-158.72M	-61.27M
Financing Cash Flow	251.49M	18.03M	-46.51M	17.36M	18.73M	-29.63M

Aaon Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 79.81
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AAON, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 79.81 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 77.86, below the 50-day MA of 86.93, and below the 200-day MA of 86.80, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.29 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.44 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AAON.

Aaon Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CSL	70 Outperform	$14.83B	20.08	32.36%	1.28%	0.14%	3.88%
TT	70 Outperform	$84.64B	29.38	37.07%	0.95%	8.58%	20.37%
JCI	70 Outperform	$67.74B	40.48	11.86%	1.27%	-10.19%	100.65%
CARR	66 Neutral	$47.37B	22.57	9.44%	1.65%	-7.93%	-35.00%
LII	64 Neutral	$18.60B	22.38	92.25%	0.96%	3.77%	12.46%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
AAON	61 Neutral	$6.80B	69.17	12.08%	0.53%	8.77%	-47.50%

Aaon Corporate Events

AAON Expands Revolving Credit Facility to $600 Million

On December 29, 2025, AAON, Inc. activated the accordion feature on its existing revolving credit facility, expanding its available borrowing capacity to $600 million to bolster financial flexibility amid strong fourth-quarter bookings and robust market-driven customer demand. The increased facility is intended to strengthen the company’s ability to fund working capital, capital expenditures and strategic projects, supporting its ongoing growth initiatives while maintaining a disciplined capital structure and reinforcing its positioning in the HVAC market.

The most recent analyst rating on (AAON) stock is a Hold with a $88.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aaon stock, see the AAON Stock Forecast page.

AAON Announces New Executive Vice President Promotion

On December 1, 2025, AAON, Inc. announced the promotion of Doug Wichman to Executive Vice President and General Manager of its AAON Business Unit, effective January 1, 2026. Wichman, who has been with the company since 2012, will succeed Stephen Wakefield, who will transition to an advisory role. This leadership change is expected to continue AAON’s trajectory of innovation and growth, leveraging Wichman’s extensive experience and leadership skills to drive strategic business plans and product development.

The most recent analyst rating on (AAON) stock is a Hold with a $98.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aaon stock, see the AAON Stock Forecast page.

Aaon Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend for Shareholders

On November 12, 2025, AAON, Inc. announced that its Board of Directors declared a regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.10 per share, payable on December 18, 2025, to stockholders of record as of November 26, 2025. This announcement reflects AAON’s ongoing commitment to providing value to its shareholders, reinforcing its stable financial position and industry leadership in the HVAC sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (AAON) stock is a Hold with a $116.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aaon stock, see the AAON Stock Forecast page.

AAON Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results Amid Market Gains

On November 6, 2025, AAON, Inc. reported strong third-quarter results for 2025, driven by operational improvements and market share gains. The company achieved a 17.4% increase in net sales to $384.2 million, despite a year-over-year decline in GAAP diluted EPS by 41.3%. The quarter saw a record backlog of $1.32 billion, reflecting robust demand, particularly in data center applications. The BASX brand experienced a significant rise in sales, primarily due to increased demand for liquid cooling equipment. Operational efficiencies, including improved ERP system integration, contributed to sequential improvements in production throughput and gross margins. The company remains confident in its growth trajectory, supported by strong bookings and expanded production capacity.

The most recent analyst rating on (AAON) stock is a Buy with a $113.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aaon stock, see the AAON Stock Forecast page.