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Carlisle Companies (CSL)
NYSE:CSL

Carlisle Companies (CSL) AI Stock Analysis

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CSL

Carlisle Companies

(NYSE:CSL)

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Outperform 77 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
$449.00
▲(9.77% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/05/26
CSL scores well primarily on strong financial performance—especially robust free cash flow and solid margins—supported by a bullish technical trend and constructive 2026 guidance with significant buybacks. The score is tempered by earnings/margin volatility, some balance-sheet comparability uncertainty, overbought technical readings, and only moderate valuation support (P/E ~20.8, ~1.06% yield).
Positive Factors
Strong free cash flow
Sustained, near-$1B free cash flow over trailing twelve months provides durable funding for buybacks, dividends, bolt-on M&A and reinvestment. High cash conversion improves financial optionality and resilience through cycles, supporting long-term capital-return and growth plans.
High ROIC and healthy margins
Best-in-class ROIC (~25%) and robust EBITDA margins sustain shareholder returns and signal efficient capital deployment across diverse niches. Durable margin strength supports reinvestment in innovation and COS initiatives, enabling long-term competitiveness and high return thresholds for acquisitions.
Clear strategic innovation agenda
Formal Vision 2030 targets and ramped R&D allocate resources to new products and commercialization, building a durable pipeline. Achieving 25% revenue from recent products and automation/COS rollout strengthens product differentiation and recurring aftermarket revenue over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Margin and earnings volatility
Sharp quarterly margin swings and EPS declines illustrate sensitivity to volume, input costs and interest expense. Persistent volatility can impede steady margin expansion, complicate forecasting and raise the risk that structural cost or demand shocks erode long-term profitability targets.
End-market weakness and organic declines
Exposure to new commercial and residential construction creates structural cyclicality; ongoing organic declines reduce fixed-cost absorption and slow top-line momentum. Prolonged softness compresses segment margins, limits pricing leverage and constrains organic growth toward Vision 2030.
Balance-sheet comparability concerns
A sudden move from meaningful debt to reported zero and lower TTM assets raises classification and comparability questions. Uncertainty about true leverage complicates assessment of financial flexibility, covenant risk and the company’s capacity to fund large M&A without altering capital structure.

Carlisle Companies (CSL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Carlisle Companies Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCarlisle Companies Incorporated operates as a diversified manufacturer of engineered products in the United States, Europe, Asia, Canada, Mexico, the Middle East, Africa, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Carlisle Construction Materials, Carlisle Interconnect Technologies, and Carlisle Fluid Technologies. The Carlisle Construction Materials segment produces building envelopes for commercial, industrial, and residential buildings, including single-ply roofing products, rigid foam insulations, spray polyurethane foam, architectural metal products, heating, ventilation and air conditioning hardware and sealants, waterproofing products, and air and vapor barrier systems. The Carlisle Interconnect Technologies segment produces wires and cables, including optical fiber for the commercial aerospace, military and defense electronics, medical device, industrial, and test and measurement markets. It also offers sensors, connectors, contacts, cable assemblies, complex harnesses, racks, trays, and installation kits, as well as engineering and certification services. The Carlisle Fluid Technologies segment produces engineered liquid products, powder products, sealants and adhesives finishing equipment, and integrated system solutions for spraying, pumping, mixing, metering, and curing of coatings used in the automotive manufacture, general industrial, protective coating, wood, and specialty and automotive refinishing markets. The company sells its products under the Carlisle, Binks, DeVilbiss, Ransburg, BGK, MS Powder, Thermax, Tri-Star, LHi Technology, Providien, SynTec, Weatherbond, Hunter Panels, Resitrix, Hertalan, Insulfoam, and Versico brands. Carlisle Companies Incorporated was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Scottsdale, Arizona.
How the Company Makes MoneyCarlisle Companies generates revenue primarily through the sale of its diverse range of products across multiple sectors. Key revenue streams include the manufacturing and distribution of roofing systems and related products, which are sold to contractors, distributors, and building owners. Additionally, the company earns income from its construction materials segment, which focuses on insulation and waterproofing solutions. Strategic partnerships with contractors and distributors enhance Carlisle's market reach and customer base. The company also capitalizes on growth opportunities through acquisitions, expanding its product offerings and market presence, further solidifying its earnings potential.

Carlisle Companies Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Revenue by Segment
Revenue by Segment
Highlights revenue from different business units, indicating which segments are driving growth and which may need strategic adjustments.
Chart InsightsCarlisle Companies' revenue from Construction Materials shows resilience amid market challenges, driven by stable reroofing demand, which constitutes a significant portion of this segment. Despite a flat revenue forecast for 2025, the company's focus on product innovation and strategic acquisitions under Vision 2030 aims to bolster future growth. However, the Weatherproofing Technologies segment faces headwinds from high interest rates impacting new construction, reflected in its performance decline. The company's disciplined capital deployment and commitment to shareholder returns through share buybacks and dividend increases provide a buffer against market uncertainties.
Data provided by:The Fly

Carlisle Companies Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 03, 2026
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call struck a constructive overall tone: Carlisle reported strong full-year financial results driven by high ROIC (≈25%), robust cash generation (operating cash flow > $1B and free cash flow of $972M), aggressive capital returns ($1.3B buybacks and a 10% dividend increase), and clear long-term targets under Vision 2030 supported by product innovation and operational improvements. Near-term headwinds were also acknowledged—organic revenue declines, margin compression in Q4 (300 bps) and a 13% drop in quarterly EPS, soft new construction and residential markets, and a muted M&A environment due to elevated seller valuations. Management provided a conservative but constructive 2026 outlook (low single-digit revenue growth, ~50 bps EBITDA expansion, $1B planned buybacks) and reiterated strategic levers (COS, innovation, disciplined M&A) to reach long-term goals. Overall, positives around cash generation, returns, strategic clarity and innovation outweigh the near-term demand and margin pressures.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Full-Year Revenue and Profitability
Full-year 2025 revenue of $5.0 billion; adjusted EPS of $19.40; adjusted EBITDA margin of 24.4%; ROIC approximately 25% (management describes as best-in-class).
Strong Cash Generation and Free Cash Flow
Fourth consecutive year with operating cash flow > $1.0 billion; record free cash flow of $972 million in 2025 representing a 19.4% free cash flow margin (well ahead of the Vision 2030 target of 15%).
Substantial Capital Returns to Shareholders
Returned nearly $1.5 billion in 2025 including $1.3 billion of share repurchases and $181 million of dividends; August marked the 49th consecutive annual dividend increase (up 10% year-over-year).
Quarterly Revenue Growth and Acquisition Contributions
Q4 consolidated revenue approximately $1.1 billion, up 0.4% year-over-year; recent acquisitions (PlastiFab, ThermoFoam, Bonded Logic) contributed ~$30 million incremental revenue in Q4.
Reaffirmation of Vision 2030 and Innovation Targets
Management reaffirmed Vision 2030 targets (adjusted EPS of $40, ROIC >25%) and increased R&D/product development ambition (targeting 3% of sales), with goal that 25% of revenue comes from products ≤5 years old by 2030; several commercial product launches (ThermaFin, temperature-sensing gun, RapidLock, SameShield, Appeal, VP Tech) already generating revenue.
Operational Excellence & Technology Adoption
Continued deployment of Carlisle Operating System (COS), expansion of automation and AI across manufacturing sites to improve changeover times, scrap, safety and quality; management expects COS and self-help to drive ~50 bps of consolidated EBITDA margin expansion in 2026.
Healthy Liquidity and Disciplined Capital Allocation
Strong balance sheet with $1.1 billion cash and $1.0 billion available on revolver at year-end; disciplined M&A approach focused on bolt-ons (examples: MTL, PlastiFab, ThermoFoam, Bonded Logic) and ongoing plan to repurchase ~$1 billion of shares in 2026.
Negative Updates
Organic Revenue Declines and End-Market Softness
Organic consolidated revenue declined 3% in Q4 2025; CCM revenue down 0.8% in Q4; CWT organic revenue declined 7% in Q4 due to softer residential and nonresidential new construction demand.
Quarterly Profitability Pressure and EPS Decline
Q4 adjusted EBITDA was $249 million with margin of 22.1%, a 300 basis-point decline year-over-year; adjusted EPS for the quarter was $3.90, down 13% year-over-year, driven by lower organic earnings and higher interest expense.
Segment Margin and EBITDA Declines
CCM adjusted EBITDA declined 10% in Q4 with margin down 260 bps to 26.8%; CWT adjusted EBITDA declined 10% with margin down 240 bps to 15.9%, partly due to higher unit costs and fixed-cost absorption on lower volumes.
Weak New Construction and Near-Term Cadence Risk
New commercial construction remained soft in 2025 and management is not projecting a sharp recovery in 2026; guidance assumes Q1 2026 revenue down low-single-digits, Q2 flat, with a stronger second half—introducing near-term cadence risk.
M&A Market Headwinds
M&A market described as challenging with sellers seeking elevated valuations for quality assets; management remained disciplined and limited deployable opportunities in 2025 (acquisitions were $110 million), potentially slowing inorganic progress toward Vision 2030 if valuations persist.
Cost and Interest Headwinds
Higher interest expense contributed to the EPS decline; CWT faced increased unit costs from lower volumes (higher fixed-cost absorption) and mixed raw material trends (some deflationary inputs but steel pressure), limiting near-term margin recovery.
Company Guidance
Carlisle guided 2026 to consolidated revenue growth of low single digits (Q1 down low-single-digits, Q2 flat, with a stronger second half), about +50 basis points of adjusted EBITDA margin expansion versus 2025, a $1.0 billion share repurchase plan, and an expected ROIC of ~25% with free cash flow margin >15%; this guidance is framed against 2025 results of $5.0 billion revenue, $19.40 adjusted EPS, 24.4% adjusted EBITDA margin, ~25% ROIC, $972 million free cash flow (19.4% margin), $1.3 billion of share repurchases and $181 million of dividends, and Q4 2025 of ~$1.1 billion revenue, $249 million adjusted EBITDA (22.1% margin) and $3.90 adjusted EPS (CCM Q4 revenue $827M, EBITDA $222M, 26.8% margin; CWT Q4 revenue $301M, EBITDA $48M, 15.9% margin); management reiterated Vision 2030 targets — $40 adjusted EPS, >25% ROIC, enterprise EBITDA ≥25% (CCM >30%, CWT >25%), R&D to 3% of sales and 25% of revenue from products ≤5 years old — while assuming largely flat pricing and mixed raw-material dynamics with tailwinds beginning in Q2.

Carlisle Companies Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Overall financial quality is strong, led by standout cash generation (TTM operating cash flow ~$1.10B; free cash flow ~$0.97B and solid cash conversion). Profitability and margins are healthy for the industry, with renewed TTM revenue growth (~9.6%). Offsetting factors are earnings/margin volatility (net income down from 2024 to TTM) and some uncertainty in the latest balance sheet comparability (sharp move to reported zero debt and unusually low TTM assets versus prior years).
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
CSL shows strong profitability for a Construction company, with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross margin ~35.7% and net margin ~14.8%, supported by healthy operating profitability. Revenue growth is positive in TTM (about 9.6%) and was also positive in 2024, indicating resilience after the 2023 revenue decline. The key weakness is earnings volatility: net income fell sharply from 2024 to TTM despite similar revenue, and margins stepped down from 2024’s peak levels.
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
The balance sheet improved meaningfully versus prior years, with leverage trending down from 2021–2024 and very strong reported TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) positioning (debt shown as 0 and debt-to-equity 0). Profitability on equity is also strong (return on equity ~36.7% in TTM, and even higher in 2024), highlighting efficient capital use. The main concern is consistency and comparability: the sharp shift from meaningful debt in 2024 to zero debt in TTM, alongside TTM total assets appearing unusually low versus prior years, suggests potential reporting or classification differences that add uncertainty to the leverage read-through.
Cash Flow
86
Very Positive
Cash generation is a standout. TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow is strong (~$1.10B) with free cash flow near ~$0.97B, and free cash flow is sizable relative to earnings (free cash flow to net income ~0.88), indicating good cash conversion. The main weakness is volatility: free cash flow growth dipped in 2024 and then rebounded strongly in TTM, implying swings that investors should monitor for working-capital or cycle sensitivity.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue5.02B5.00B4.59B5.45B3.84B
Gross Profit1.79B1.89B1.63B1.87B1.10B
EBITDA1.22B1.36B1.21B1.46B796.30M
Net Income740.70M1.31B767.40M924.00M421.70M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets6.26B5.82B6.62B7.22B7.25B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.11B753.50M576.70M364.80M324.40M
Total Debt2.88B1.99B2.32B2.62B2.99B
Total Liabilities4.47B3.35B3.79B4.20B4.62B
Stockholders Equity1.80B2.46B2.83B3.02B2.63B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow970.60M945.80M1.07B817.40M292.00M
Operating Cash Flow1.10B1.06B1.21B1.00B426.80M
Investing Cash Flow-240.40M1.23B352.40M-61.10M-1.49B
Financing Cash Flow-503.70M-2.11B-1.35B-862.00M488.10M

Carlisle Companies Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price409.02
Price Trends
50DMA
355.41
Positive
100DMA
338.28
Positive
200DMA
358.64
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
17.72
Negative
RSI
70.25
Negative
STOCH
33.05
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CSL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 409.02 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 382.28, above the 50-day MA of 355.41, and above the 200-day MA of 358.64, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 17.72 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 70.25 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.05 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CSL.

Carlisle Companies Risk Analysis

Carlisle Companies disclosed 11 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Carlisle Companies reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Carlisle Companies Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
79
Outperform
$8.48B28.1638.03%0.66%15.10%23.35%
77
Outperform
$16.58B23.6535.05%1.28%0.14%3.88%
75
Outperform
$13.24B28.2526.50%0.47%2.48%-6.92%
64
Neutral
$15.62B19.891.94%-3.62%3.41%
63
Neutral
$10.79B15.437.44%2.01%2.89%-14.66%
52
Neutral
$12.60B28.6210.06%-6.44%-48.84%
52
Neutral
$11.04B-3.27%2.43%3.47%-148.53%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
CSL
Carlisle Companies
409.02
80.56
24.52%
AWI
Armstrong World
198.92
54.29
37.54%
BLDR
Builders Firstsource
110.55
-28.03
-20.23%
MAS
Masco
75.15
2.47
3.40%
OC
Owens Corning
132.71
-26.62
-16.71%
WMS
Advanced Drainage Systems
170.61
57.16
50.39%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 05, 2026