Builders Firstsource (BLDR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $11.54B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.06M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 26.8
• Beta (1Y): 1.20
• Revenue Growth: -6.44%
• EPS Growth: -48.84%
• Country: US
• Employees: 29,000
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Construction
• EPS (TTM): 1.12
• Shares Outstanding: 110,605,070
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,168,085
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,062,691
• PEG Ratio: -0.46
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.63
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.75
• P/FCF Ratio: 13.43
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.47
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.12
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.68
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 12.33
• 1Y Price Target: $127.69
• Price Target Upside: 22.12% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 15
• EPS Forecast (FY): 5.94
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $15.02B

• Rating: 52 Neutral
• Price Target: $116.00 ▲(10.94% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/18/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/18/26

The score is held back primarily by weakened recent profitability/cash conversion and reduced balance-sheet confidence due to the 2025 data discontinuity. Technicals are mixed with soft momentum (below key moving averages), while valuation is moderate. Earnings call guidance and cost actions provide some offset, but near-term uncertainty remains elevated.

Positive Factors

Scale & M&A-driven footprint

A consistent acquisitive strategy has materially expanded distribution and manufacturing scale, diversifying revenue sources and strengthening supplier and contractor relationships. Scale and localized inventory reduce unit costs and support durable market share gains across housing cycles.

Value‑added mix supports margins

A higher mix of value‑added manufactured products and services sustains gross margins even amid volume weakness, enabling better absorption of fixed costs and improving long‑term margin recovery potential versus pure commodity sellers.

Digital platform & productivity gains

Rapid digital adoption improves lead conversion, pricing consistency and sales productivity at scale. Technology and automation investments are structural enablers that lower SG&A per dollar of sales and support sustainable margin expansion over multiple cycles.

Negative Factors

Material margin deterioration

Sharp multi-year erosion in net and EBITDA margins signals weaker pricing power and higher cost pressure. Sustained lower profitability constrains reinvestment, reduces ROE and limits capacity to self-fund growth or absorb future demand shocks over the medium term.

Weak core demand in housing segments

Significant organic declines in single‑family and multifamily volumes reflect structural softness in key end markets. Prolonged lower starts and reduced value per start will pressure utilization, unit economics and long‑term revenue growth unless housing fundamentals improve.

Balance‑sheet/data uncertainty & working‑cap risk

A discontinuity in reported 2025 equity and debt hampers reliable leverage and solvency assessment. Combined with a guided ~$300M working‑capital headwind for 2026, this raises durable uncertainty about near‑term cash conversion and financial flexibility.

Builders Firstsource Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Builders FirstSource, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and supplies building materials, manufactured components, and construction services to professional homebuilders, sub-contractors, remodelers, and consumers in the United States. It offers lumber and lumber sheet goods comprising dimensional lumber, plywood, and oriented strand board products that are used in on-site house framing; manufactured products, such as wood floor and roof trusses, steel roof trusses, wall panels, stairs, and engineered wood products; and windows, and interior and exterior door units, as well as interior and exterior trims and custom products under the Synboard brand name. The company also offers gypsum, roofing, and insulation products, including wallboards, ceilings, joint treatments, and finishes; and siding, metal, and concrete products, such as vinyl, composite, and wood siding products, as well as exterior trims, other exteriors, metal studs, and cement products. In addition, it provides other building products and services, such as cabinets and hardware, as well as turn-key framing, shell construction, design assistance, and professional installation services. The company was formerly known as BSL Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Builders FirstSource, Inc. in October 1999. Builders FirstSource, Inc. was founded in 1998 and is based in Dallas, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Builders FirstSource generates revenue primarily through the sale of building materials and manufactured products to contractors, builders, and other construction-related businesses. Key revenue streams include sales of lumber, roofing, drywall, and other structural components, as well as manufactured goods like trusses and millwork. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships with suppliers and manufacturers, which enhance its product offerings and pricing competitiveness. Additionally, Builders FirstSource capitalizes on the construction industry's cyclical nature, often experiencing increased demand during housing booms, further contributing to its earnings.

Builders Firstsource Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Recent fundamentals show a clear downshift: 2025 net margin (~2.9%) and EBITDA margin (~5.2%) fell sharply versus prior years, with modest revenue contraction. Cash conversion also weakened in 2025 (OCF < net income; lower FCF-to-NI). The balance sheet signal is difficult to underwrite due to a noted 2025 data discontinuity and very low reported ROE, limiting confidence despite seemingly benign leverage ratios.

Income Statement

Profitability has weakened materially versus prior years: net margin fell to ~2.9% in 2025 (from ~6.6% in 2024 and ~12.1% in 2022), with EBITDA margin also stepping down to ~5.2% (from ~9.7% in 2024 and ~18.8% in 2022). Revenue has been contracting recently (down ~3% in 2025 and slightly down in 2024), pointing to a softer demand/pricing environment. Offsetting this, gross margin remains relatively healthy at ~30% in 2025 (though below 2022–2024 levels), suggesting cost discipline at the product level even as overall earnings power compresses.

Balance Sheet

Leverage has been manageable historically (debt-to-equity generally ~0.7–1.0 from 2021–2024), but the latest 2025 balance sheet shows a major discontinuity: total debt and equity appear orders of magnitude higher than prior years, which makes year-over-year comparability and risk assessment difficult. Using the provided ratios for 2025, leverage screens low (debt-to-equity ~0.15), but the reported return on equity is near zero, implying very weak profitability relative to the stated equity base. Overall, the balance sheet signal is mixed due to the apparent data break and the sharp deterioration in equity returns.

Cash Flow

Cash generation has generally tracked earnings well in the 2021–2024 period, with operating cash flow covering net income (coverage >1x in 2022–2024) and free cash flow running at ~0.79–0.91 of net income—solid conversion for the business. In 2025, cash flow metrics weaken (operating cash flow covers net income at ~0.77x and free cash flow is ~0.70 of net income), indicating reduced cash conversion alongside the earnings decline. Free cash flow growth in 2025 is extremely high, but given the broader 2025 scale shift versus prior years, that growth figure should be treated cautiously.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	15.19B	16.40B	17.10B	22.73B	19.89B
Gross Profit	4.62B	5.38B	6.01B	7.74B	5.85B
EBITDA	1.38B	1.60B	2.73B	4.27B	2.93B
Net Income	435.20M	1.08B	1.54B	2.75B	1.73B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	11.24B	10.58B	10.50B	10.60B	10.71B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	181.75M	153.62M	66.16M	80.44M	42.60M
Total Debt	5.65B	4.33B	3.71B	3.49B	3.40B
Total Liabilities	6.89B	6.29B	5.77B	5.63B	5.91B
Stockholders Equity	4.35B	4.30B	4.73B	4.96B	4.80B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	853.28M	1.49B	1.83B	3.26B	1.52B
Operating Cash Flow	1.22B	1.87B	2.31B	3.60B	1.74B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.47B	-710.72M	-668.29M	-957.48M	-1.34B
Financing Cash Flow	279.42M	-1.07B	-1.65B	-2.60B	-780.11M

Builders Firstsource Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 104.56
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BLDR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 104.56 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 115.42, below the 50-day MA of 114.21, and below the 200-day MA of 120.00, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -3.37 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.58 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.54 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BLDR.

Builders Firstsource Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WMS	76 Outperform	$13.35B	28.48	26.50%	0.47%	2.48%	-6.92%
SSD	71 Outperform	$8.03B	23.49	18.00%	0.69%	4.26%	8.52%
AWI	65 Neutral	$7.43B	24.50	37.24%	0.66%	15.10%	23.35%
MAS	64 Neutral	$14.58B	18.57	―	1.94%	-3.62%	3.41%
OC	64 Neutral	$9.81B	-18.85	-4.21%	2.43%	3.47%	-148.53%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
BLDR	52 Neutral	$11.54B	26.78	10.06%	―	-6.44%	-48.84%