Record Bookings and Backlog
Enterprise organic bookings increased 22% in Q4, driving a record backlog of $7.8 billion. Commercial HVAC backlog rose ~25% in The Americas and nearly 40% in EMEA versus year-end 2024.
Exceptional Commercial HVAC and Applied Solutions Momentum
America's commercial HVAC bookings were up >35% year-over-year; Applied solutions bookings rose >120% with a record book-to-bill of 200%, marking the second consecutive quarter of >100% applied bookings growth.
Top-Line and EPS Growth
Q4 organic revenue grew 4% (7% excluding residential). The company delivered 10% adjusted EPS growth in Q4 and exceeded full-year adjusted EPS guidance for 2025.
Strong Services Performance and Durable Growth Engine
Services represent about one-third of enterprise revenue and have delivered a low-teens CAGR since 2020, contributing consistent, higher-margin recurring revenue and long services tails on applied projects.
Robust Free Cash Flow and Capital Allocation
Free cash flow remained robust with historical free cash flow conversion of ~106% (since 2020). In 2025 the company deployed/committed ~$3.2 billion (≈$840M dividends, ~$720M M&A, ~$1.5B share repurchases) and expects to deploy $2.8–$3.3B in 2026 with $4.7B remaining repurchase authorization.
Long-Term Financial Track Record (Since 2020)
Since 2020: revenue CAGR of 11%, adjusted EPS CAGR of 24%, adjusted EBITDA margin expansion of ~470 basis points, and >$15 billion deployed through the company’s capital allocation strategy.
Confident 2026 Guidance
Initial 2026 guidance: 6%–7% organic revenue growth, adjusted EPS $14.65–$14.85 (≈12%–14% growth), reported revenue growth 8.5%–9.5% (including ~50 bps FX and ~200 bps M&A). Targeting organic incremental leverage ≥25% and free cash flow conversion ≥100%.
Strategic M&A to Enhance Capabilities
Announced acquisition of Stellar Energy (modular data center cooling) expected to close in Q1 2026 and deliver modest EPS accretion in 2026 after integration costs; M&A expected to contribute ~200 bps to reported growth in 2026.
Commercial Outperformance vs End Markets
Commercial HVAC and services outperformed several end markets: Americas transport refrigeration revenues and bookings declined less than broader transport market declines (>20%), and EMEA commercial HVAC delivered mid- to high-teens bookings growth.