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Carrier Global (CARR)
NYSE:CARR
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Carrier Global
(NYSE:CARR)70Outperform
Positive Factors
Earnings
Carrier Global Corp. posted a Q4 EPS of 54 cents, surpassing consensus estimates and internal expectations.
Order Growth
Data center orders tripled in thermal, indicating significant growth in this sector.
Negative Factors
Market Performance
Shares underperformed after reporting Q3 results, with HVAC performance being weaker than expected, leading to a pullback in the stock.
Carrier Global (CARR) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$53.63B
Dividend Yield1.28%
Average Volume (3M)6.57M
Price to Earnings (P/E)132.2
Beta (1Y)1.52
Revenue Growth8.62%
EPS Growth163.53%
CountryUS
Employees48,000
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength66
IndustryConstruction
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.18
Shares Outstanding863,987,550
10 Day Avg. Volume5,999,302
30 Day Avg. Volume6,565,109
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.81
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)2.29
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)104.00
P/FCF Ratio27.70
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$81.73Price Target Upside25.99% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering12
Carrier Global Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionCarrier Global Corporation is a leading global provider of innovative heating, ventilating, air conditioning (HVAC), refrigeration, and fire and security solutions. With a rich history of pioneering technology, Carrier is committed to creating comfortable and sustainable environments through its wide range of products and services. The company serves a diverse clientele, including residential, commercial, and industrial customers across multiple sectors, ensuring efficiency and safety in various building systems.
How the Company Makes MoneyCarrier Global makes money primarily through the sale of HVAC, refrigeration, and fire and security products and services. Its revenue streams are diversified across three main segments: HVAC, Refrigeration, and Fire & Security. The HVAC segment generates revenue from the sale of residential and commercial heating and cooling systems. The Refrigeration segment earns through the provision of transport and commercial refrigeration solutions. The Fire & Security segment contributes to revenues through the sale of fire detection, suppression, and security products. Additionally, Carrier Global benefits from aftermarket services, including maintenance and repair offerings, which further bolster its revenue. Strategic partnerships and global distribution networks also play a critical role in reaching a broad customer base and enhancing revenue generation.
Carrier Global Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Carrier Global's financials show strong revenue growth and improved profitability, with a notable increase in net profit margin. Balance sheet improvements are evident with reduced leverage and higher equity. However, declines in operating and free cash flow suggest challenges in cash generation, which need attention.Income Statement
Carrier Global has shown consistent revenue growth, increasing from $17.46 billion in 2020 to $22.49 billion in 2024. The gross profit margin has been stable, though slightly declining from 29.3% in 2023 to 26.6% in 2024. The net profit margin increased significantly from 6.1% in 2023 to 14.8% in 2024, indicating improved profitability. However, EBIT and EBITDA margins have shown some fluctuations, which suggests potential volatility in operational efficiency.78
Positive
Balance Sheet
Carrier Global's balance sheet shows an improvement in stockholders' equity, rising from $8.68 billion in 2023 to $14.40 billion in 2024. The debt-to-equity ratio decreased from 1.69 in 2023 to 0.80 in 2024, reflecting reduced leverage. However, the equity ratio remains relatively stable, indicating a balanced asset financing structure. Despite these improvements, high total liabilities may pose a risk if not managed carefully.65
Positive
Cash Flow
The company's operating cash flow decreased from $2.61 billion in 2023 to $1.57 billion in 2024, indicating potential challenges in cash generation from operations. Free cash flow also declined from $2.14 billion in 2023 to $1.05 billion in 2024, suggesting reduced capacity for discretionary spending. The operating cash flow to net income ratio has decreased, reflecting reduced cash conversion efficiency despite higher net income.72
Positive
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 22.49B | 22.10B | 20.42B | 20.61B | 17.46B | Gross Profit |
| 5.98B | 6.38B | 5.46B | 5.98B | 5.11B | EBIT |
| 2.65B | 2.30B | 2.41B | 2.65B | 2.10B | EBITDA |
| 4.09B | 2.99B | 2.90B | 2.91B | 2.41B | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 3.34B | 1.35B | 3.53B | 1.66B | 1.98B |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 3.97B | 10.02B | 3.52B | 2.99B | 3.12B | Total Assets |
| 37.40B | 32.82B | 26.09B | 26.17B | 25.09B | Total Debt |
| 11.46B | 14.68B | 9.37B | 10.22B | 11.03B | Net Debt |
| 7.49B | 4.67B | 5.85B | 7.24B | 7.92B | Total Liabilities |
| 23.01B | 23.82B | 18.01B | 19.08B | 18.52B | Stockholders Equity |
| 14.39B | 8.68B | 7.76B | 6.77B | 6.25B |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| 1.05B | 2.14B | 1.39B | 1.89B | 1.38B | Operating Cash Flow |
| 1.57B | 2.61B | 1.74B | 2.24B | 1.69B | Investing Cash Flow |
| -11.03B | -660.00M | 1.75B | -692.00M | 1.11B | Financing Cash Flow |
| -4.64B | 4.61B | -2.93B | -1.56B | -681.00M |
Carrier Global Technical Analysis
Neutral
64.87
Price Trends
66.85
Negative
71.24
Negative
69.67
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.83
Positive
47.38
Neutral
29.33
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CARR, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 64.87 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 65.12, below the 50-day MA of 66.85, and below the 200-day MA of 69.67, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.83 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.38 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.33 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CARR.
Carrier Global Risk Analysis
Carrier Global disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Carrier Global reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Carrier Global Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $53.41B | 30.89 | 11.01% | 1.83% | -4.53% | -14.72% | |
75 Outperform | $20.39B | 25.42 | 94.91% | 0.78% | 7.21% | 36.45% | |
70 Outperform | $53.63B | 132.23 | 23.17% | 1.28% | 8.62% | 163.53% | |
68 Neutral | $135.18B | 23.89 | 33.10% | 2.13% | 5.05% | 2.73% | |
68 Neutral | $76.98B | 30.53 | 0.05% | 0.98% | 12.22% | 28.13% | |
64 Neutral | $6.14B | 37.34 | 20.44% | 0.43% | 2.75% | -5.43% | |
62 Neutral | $8.11B | 13.34 | 1.17% | 3.02% | 4.16% | -15.14% |
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
CARR
Carrier Global
64.87
7.84
13.75%
AAON
Aaon
81.94
1.23
1.52%
HON
Honeywell International
209.62
13.28
6.76%
TT
Trane Technologies
348.65
64.34
22.63%
JCI
Johnson Controls
82.22
22.95
38.72%
LII
Lennox International
588.07
116.83
24.79%
Carrier Global Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date: Feb 11, 2025 | % Change Since: -2.05% | Next Earnings Date: Apr 24, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Carrier demonstrated strong organic growth and successful portfolio transformation in 2024, with significant contributions from commercial HVAC and data center segments. However, challenges in residential HVAC markets and Viessmann underperformance, coupled with geopolitical and currency headwinds, present risks for 2025.Highlights
Organic Growth and Earnings Expansion
Carrier achieved 3% organic growth in 2024, with significant contributions from global commercial HVAC and aftermarket. The company reported a 16% growth in adjusted EPS and 180 basis points of margin expansion.
Successful Portfolio Transformation
Carrier completed its portfolio transformation, integrating Viessmann Climate Solutions and executing divestitures, yielding over $10 billion in proceeds. The company also returned over $2.6 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.
Strong Performance in Data Centers
Carrier's data center sales are expected to double to $1 billion in 2025, driven by the Quantum Leap initiative and comprehensive cooling solutions for hyperscalers and colos.
Viessmann Revenue Synergies
Carrier expects $100 million in revenue synergies from the Viessmann acquisition, with significant contributions from new product introductions and channel expansions.
Lowlights
Challenges in Residential and Light Commercial HVAC
Carrier faced declines in residential and light commercial HVAC in Europe and China, impacting overall segment performance.
Viessmann Underperformance
Viessmann Climate Solutions' performance in 2024 was below expectations due to political and economic uncertainties in Europe, leading to a flat to down mid-single-digit market volume assumption for 2025.
Currency and Tariff Headwinds
Carrier anticipates a $200 million sales headwind from currency translation and potential impacts from tariffs on Chinese and Mexican imports.
Company Guidance
During Carrier's Fourth Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call, the company provided comprehensive guidance for 2025. They expect mid-single-digit organic growth, buoyed by their fifth consecutive year of double-digit growth in aftermarket and global commercial HVAC. Carrier anticipates around 100 basis points of year-over-year margin expansion and a 17% increase in adjusted EPS at the midpoint, with approximately 100% free cash flow conversion. The guidance reflects the strategic positioning following their portfolio transformation, including the integration of Viessmann Climate Solutions and divestitures that yielded over $10 billion in gross proceeds. Capital allocation remains disciplined, with plans to repurchase about $3 billion in shares, supported by an expected $2.4 to $2.6 billion in free cash flow.Carrier Global Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Carrier Global Appoints Amy E. Miles to Board
Positive
Jan 15, 2025
Carrier Global Corporation announced the appointment of Amy E. Miles as an independent director on its Board of Directors, effective January 15, 2025. Ms. Miles, with her extensive experience in business innovation and operational leadership, is expected to enhance the company’s strategic priorities and drive long-term shareholder growth through her customer-centric and innovative approach.
Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Carrier Global Enhances Financial Structure with New Credit Agreement
Positive
Dec 20, 2024
Carrier Global Corporation has entered into a new 5-year senior unsecured revolving credit agreement, replacing its prior credit agreements, with a borrowing capacity of up to $2.5 billion. This Credit Agreement will support the company’s cash requirements and commercial paper program, offering flexibility in U.S. Dollars or Euros. The agreement includes customary covenants and financial ratios, ensuring compliance and stability, and marks the termination of its previous credit facilities, enhancing its financial structure and operational capacity.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.