Carrier Global (CARR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $49.40B
• Dividend Yield: 1.39%
• Average Volume (3M): 5.26M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 121.8
• Beta (1Y): 1.38
• Revenue Growth: 8.62%
• EPS Growth: 163.53%
• Country: US
• Employees: 48,000
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 63
• Industry: Construction
• EPS (TTM): 4.18
• Shares Outstanding: 863,987,550
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,475,842
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 5,255,964
• PEG Ratio: 0.74
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.39
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 108.80
• P/FCF Ratio: 29.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $81.17
• Price Target Upside: 41.96% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 13

Carrier Global's overall score reflects its strong financial growth and strategic improvements, offset by technical weaknesses and cash flow challenges. The company's successful portfolio transformation and positive corporate events support future growth, though concerns over cash generation and market conditions remain significant.

Positive Factors

Business Strategy

Carrier quickly transitioned to the new 454 refrigerant, arguing that any rollback would increase consumer costs rather than reduce them.

Earnings

Carrier Global Corp. posted a Q4 EPS of 54 cents, surpassing consensus estimates and internal expectations.

Growth Opportunities

Upcoming investor day is likely to highlight accelerated growth opportunities with C-HVAC, data centers, services and controls.

Negative Factors

Demand Trends

Viessmann is experiencing softer demand trends, with expectations at the lower end of the guided range.

Financial Performance

Both segments missed on top line and margins, indicating potential challenges in maintaining profitability.

Market Challenges

Weakness in some end markets, such as light commercial and North America truck & trailer, influences the maintenance of a neutral rating.

Carrier Global Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Carrier Global Corporation provides heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC), refrigeration, fire, security, and building automation technologies worldwide. It operates through three segments: HVAC, Refrigeration, and Fire & Security. The HVAC segment provides products, controls, services, and solutions to meet the heating, cooling, and ventilation needs of residential and commercial customers. Its products include air conditioners, heating systems, controls, and aftermarket components, as well as aftermarket repair and maintenance services and building automation solutions. The Refrigeration segment offers transport refrigeration and monitoring products and services, as well as digital solutions for trucks, trailers, shipping containers, intermodal applications, food retail, and warehouse cooling; and commercial refrigeration solutions, such as refrigerated cabinets, freezers, systems, and controls. The Fire & Security segment provides various residential, commercial, and industrial technologies, including fire, flame, gas, smoke, and carbon monoxide detection; portable fire extinguishers; fire suppression systems; intruder alarms; access control systems; video management systems; and electronic controls. Its other fire and security service offerings comprise audit, design, installation, and system integration, as well as aftermarket maintenance and repair and monitoring services. The company offers its products under the Autronica, Det-Tronics, Edwards, Fireye, GST, Kidde, LenelS2, Marioff, Onity, and Supra; Carrier, Automated Logic, Bryant, CIAT, Day & Night, Heil, NORESCO, and Riello; and Carrier Commercial Refrigeration, Carrier Transicold, and Sensitech brands. The company was incorporated in 2019 and is headquartered in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida.

How the Company Makes Money

Carrier Global makes money primarily through the sale of HVAC, refrigeration, and fire and security products and services. Its revenue streams are diversified across three main segments: HVAC, Refrigeration, and Fire & Security. The HVAC segment generates revenue from the sale of residential and commercial heating and cooling systems. The Refrigeration segment earns through the provision of transport and commercial refrigeration solutions. The Fire & Security segment contributes to revenues through the sale of fire detection, suppression, and security products. Additionally, Carrier Global benefits from aftermarket services, including maintenance and repair offerings, which further bolster its revenue. Strategic partnerships and global distribution networks also play a critical role in reaching a broad customer base and enhancing revenue generation.

Carrier Global Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Carrier Global's financials show strong revenue growth and improved profitability, with a notable increase in net profit margin. Balance sheet improvements are evident with reduced leverage and higher equity. However, declines in operating and free cash flow suggest challenges in cash generation, which need attention.

Income Statement

Carrier Global has shown consistent revenue growth, increasing from $17.46 billion in 2020 to $22.49 billion in 2024. The gross profit margin has been stable, though slightly declining from 29.3% in 2023 to 26.6% in 2024. The net profit margin increased significantly from 6.1% in 2023 to 14.8% in 2024, indicating improved profitability. However, EBIT and EBITDA margins have shown some fluctuations, which suggests potential volatility in operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

Carrier Global's balance sheet shows an improvement in stockholders' equity, rising from $8.68 billion in 2023 to $14.40 billion in 2024. The debt-to-equity ratio decreased from 1.69 in 2023 to 0.80 in 2024, reflecting reduced leverage. However, the equity ratio remains relatively stable, indicating a balanced asset financing structure. Despite these improvements, high total liabilities may pose a risk if not managed carefully.

Cash Flow

The company's operating cash flow decreased from $2.61 billion in 2023 to $1.57 billion in 2024, indicating potential challenges in cash generation from operations. Free cash flow also declined from $2.14 billion in 2023 to $1.05 billion in 2024, suggesting reduced capacity for discretionary spending. The operating cash flow to net income ratio has decreased, reflecting reduced cash conversion efficiency despite higher net income.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
22.49B	22.10B	20.42B	20.61B	17.46B
	Gross Profit
5.98B	6.38B	5.46B	5.98B	5.11B
	EBIT
2.65B	2.30B	2.41B	2.65B	2.10B
	EBITDA
4.09B	2.99B	2.90B	2.91B	2.41B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
3.34B	1.35B	3.53B	1.66B	1.98B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
3.97B	10.02B	3.52B	2.99B	3.12B
	Total Assets
37.40B	32.82B	26.09B	26.17B	25.09B
	Total Debt
11.46B	14.68B	9.37B	10.22B	11.03B
	Net Debt
7.49B	4.67B	5.85B	7.24B	7.92B
	Total Liabilities
23.01B	23.82B	18.01B	19.08B	18.52B
	Stockholders Equity
14.39B	8.68B	7.76B	6.77B	6.25B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
1.05B	2.14B	1.39B	1.89B	1.38B
	Operating Cash Flow
1.57B	2.61B	1.74B	2.24B	1.69B
	Investing Cash Flow
-11.03B	-660.00M	1.75B	-692.00M	1.11B
	Financing Cash Flow
-4.64B	4.61B	-2.93B	-1.56B	-681.00M

Carrier Global Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 57.18
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CARR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 57.18 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 64.79, below the 50-day MA of 65.12, and below the 200-day MA of 69.85, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.40 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.21 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.04 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CARR.

Carrier Global Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
JCI	76 Outperform	$47.33B	27.38	9.80%	2.06%	-4.53%	-14.72%
CSL	75 Outperform	$14.45B	18.03	32.60%	1.18%	-1.76%	176.01%
CARR	70 Outperform	$49.40B	121.82	27.44%	1.39%	8.62%	163.53%
LII	69 Neutral	$18.90B	23.57	142.12%	0.86%	7.21%	36.45%
TT	68 Neutral	$71.35B	28.29	35.88%	1.09%	12.22%	28.13%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$7.25B	12.39	3.08%	3.39%	3.63%	-14.32%
AAON	61 Neutral	$6.03B	36.81	21.61%	0.57%	2.75%	-5.43%

Carrier Global Corporate Events

Carrier Global Appoints Amy E. Miles to Board

Carrier Global Corporation announced the appointment of Amy E. Miles as an independent director on its Board of Directors, effective January 15, 2025. Ms. Miles, with her extensive experience in business innovation and operational leadership, is expected to enhance the company’s strategic priorities and drive long-term shareholder growth through her customer-centric and innovative approach.