Baozun (BZUN) AI Stock Analysis

Compare

1,856 Followers

Top Page

Baozun

(NASDAQ:BZUN)

Rating:56Neutral

Price Target:

$3.00

▼(-0.33% Downside)

Baozun's stock score is primarily influenced by its financial performance challenges, including profitability and cash flow issues. Positive technical indicators provide some support, but valuation concerns and operating losses from the earnings call weigh on the overall score.

Positive Factors

Brand Management Performance

Baozun Brand Management reported a 10% growth, spurred by improved order attach rates and new store openings.

Earnings Outlook

The better-than-expected third-quarter results have led to an enhanced full-year earnings outlook.

Revenue Growth

Baozun E-commerce achieved a 14% revenue growth, bolstered by high-quality new distribution businesses and increased services revenue.

Negative Factors

Operating Efficiency

Management's focus on operating efficiency over business expansion may delay growth initiatives.

Target Price Adjustment

The analyst's SOTP-based target price has been adjusted to US$3.1, indicating a cautious earnings growth outlook.

Baozun (BZUN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$184.83M

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)278.87K

Price to Earnings (P/E)―

Beta (1Y)0.68

Revenue Growth6.05%

EPS Growth29.58%

CountryUS

Employees7,650

SectorConsumer Cyclical

Sector Strength81

IndustrySpecialty Retail

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)-0.15

Shares Outstanding58,615,494

10 Day Avg. Volume184,829

30 Day Avg. Volume278,866

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)0.00

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio0.00

Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.16

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.04

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.09

Enterprise Value/Ebitda-6.18

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$3.00

Price Target Upside-0.33% Downside

Rating ConsensusHold

Number of Analyst Covering0

Baozun Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionBaozun Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides e-commerce solutions to brand partners in the People's Republic of China. The company offers IT infrastructure setup and integration, online store design and setup, online store operations, visual merchandising and marketing campaigns, customer services, and warehousing and order fulfilment. It serves brand partners in various categories, including apparel and accessories; appliances; electronics; home and furnishings; food and health products; beauty and cosmetics; fast moving consumer goods, and mother and baby products; and automobiles. The company was formerly known as Baozun Cayman Inc. and changed its name to Baozun Inc. in March 2015. Baozun Inc. was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.

How the Company Makes MoneyBaozun generates revenue through a multi-faceted revenue model that includes service fees and commission-based earnings. The primary revenue streams consist of providing end-to-end e-commerce solutions to brands, which involve setup fees for online stores, transaction-based commissions on sales made through these stores, and ongoing service fees for digital marketing and operational support. Additionally, Baozun earns income from logistics services and value-added services such as data analytics and customer engagement solutions. Significant partnerships with major brands and platforms, including Alibaba and Tencent, bolster its market position and contribute to its earnings by expanding its client base and enhancing service offerings.

Baozun Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 21, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Aug 28, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call highlighted Baozun's steady revenue growth and strong performance in the Brand Management segment, particularly with the Gap brand. However, significant operating losses and challenges in certain services cast a shadow, balancing the positive aspects.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Overall Revenue Growth

Baozun Group achieved a 4.3% year-over-year revenue growth, reaching RMB2.1 billion for Q1 2025.

Brand Management Segment Success

The Brand Management (BBM) segment saw a 23% year-over-year sales growth, driven by the strong performance of the Gap brand.

Improvement in Gross Margin

The blended gross margin for product sales at the group level was 32.4%, with gross profit increasing by 18.9% year-over-year to RMB262 million.

Sustainability Achievements

Baozun achieved a 36% reduction in Scope 1 and 2 carbon emissions versus the base year 2021, and is on track to achieve a 50% reduction by 2030.

Strong Performance in E-Commerce

E-Commerce product sales grew by 7%, with standout categories being Home & Furniture, Alcohol, and Health & Nutrition.

Negative Updates

Adjusted Operating Loss

The adjusted loss from operations was RMB67 million for the quarter, with E-Commerce segment losses attributed to low seasonality and strategic investments.

Challenges in Logistics and IT Services

Revenue from warehouse and logistics, as well as digital marketing and IT services, each declined by a middle single-digit year-over-year.

Operating Loss in Brand Management

BBM's adjusted operating loss totaled RMB21 million, despite an improvement of 28% from the same period last year.

Costs Related to Restructuring

Approximately RMB80 million was incurred in restructure costs related to human resource reform in the quarter.

Company Guidance

During Baozun's First Quarter 2025 earnings call, the company reported a 4.3% increase in total net revenues, reaching RMB2.1 billion. The E-Commerce segment saw a modest growth of 1.4%, while Brand Management revenue surged by 23% to RMB387 million. The blended gross margin for product sales at the group level was 32.4%, with a gross profit increase of 18.9% year-over-year to RMB262 million. Notably, the E-Commerce product sales gross margin improved by 130 basis points to 15%, and BBM's gross margin was 51.6%. Adjusted losses from operations amounted to RMB67 million, driven by strategic investments and restructuring costs. The company also highlighted a 36% reduction in Scope 1 and 2 carbon emissions. Baozun continues to focus on strategic transformation, emphasizing profitability and sustainable growth through omnichannel initiatives and technological innovations.

Baozun Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Baozun's financial performance shows moderate revenue growth but struggles with profitability and cash flow. The balance sheet is stable with manageable leverage, but negative returns and cash flow issues highlight the need for strategic adjustments.

Income Statement

Neutral

Baozun's revenue has shown moderate growth over the years, with a 6.9% increase from 2023 to 2024. However, the company has been struggling with profitability, as indicated by negative EBIT and net income margins in recent years. The gross profit margin remains healthy at around 47.6% for 2024, but the persistent negative net profit margin highlights ongoing challenges in managing costs and achieving profitability.

Balance Sheet

Neutral

The balance sheet indicates a stable equity position, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.64 in 2024, suggesting manageable leverage. However, the equity ratio has decreased slightly, reflecting a potential risk in asset financing. The return on equity remains negative due to net losses, which is a concern for long-term sustainability.

Cash Flow

Neutral

Baozun's cash flow situation is mixed. The operating cash flow has decreased significantly from 2023 to 2024, and free cash flow has turned negative, indicating potential liquidity issues. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is positive, suggesting that the company is generating cash despite net losses, but the negative free cash flow to net income ratio is a concern.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	9.42B	8.81B	8.40B	9.40B	8.85B
Gross Profit	4.49B	3.90B	3.42B	3.46B	3.27B
EBITDA	190.85M	75.95M	-326.85M	109.78M	600.05M
Net Income	-185.20M	-278.42M	-606.79M	-209.26M	425.99M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	10.21B	10.47B	10.12B	12.32B	10.47B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.56B	2.87B	3.04B	4.61B	5.03B
Total Debt	2.52B	2.75B	2.41B	3.98B	2.80B
Total Liabilities	4.43B	4.62B	4.45B	5.84B	4.34B
Stockholders Equity	3.91B	4.10B	4.08B	5.94B	6.11B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-106.99M	283.25M	175.65M	-381.69M	198.96M
Operating Cash Flow	101.28M	448.25M	382.61M	-96.11M	310.01M
Investing Cash Flow	-817.61M	-340.37M	-1.31B	375.82M	-616.37M
Financing Cash Flow	-19.74M	-8.03M	-1.65B	749.95M	2.67B

Baozun Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price3.01

Price Trends

50DMA

2.75

Positive

100DMA

2.77

Positive

200DMA

2.89

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

0.05

Negative

RSI

62.70

Neutral

STOCH

78.32

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BZUN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3.01 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.78, above the 50-day MA of 2.75, and above the 200-day MA of 2.89, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.70 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 78.32 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BZUN.

Baozun Risk Analysis

Baozun disclosed 114 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Baozun reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks

We may incur impairment charges for our goodwill. Q4, 2023

Our plans to innovate, expand our product offerings and successfully implement our growth strategies may not be successful, and implementation of these plans may divert our operational, managerial and administrative resources, which could harm our competitive position and reduce our revenue and profitability. Q4, 2023

We are subject to changing laws and regulations regarding regulatory matters, corporate governance and public disclosure that have increased both our costs and the risk of non-compliance. Q4, 2023

Baozun Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BABA	80 Outperform	$304.08B	16.10	13.04%	1.59%	5.17%	74.55%
VIPS	79 Outperform	$8.44B	9.21	17.79%	2.81%	-5.24%	-12.89%
MNSO	77 Outperform	$7.94B	24.24	22.92%	2.31%	10.93%	-10.83%
BWMX	76 Outperform	$497.06M	16.94	39.74%	9.14%	-8.56%	-57.78%
JD	73 Outperform	$51.11B	9.03	17.26%	3.08%	14.61%	32.78%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$17.75B	12.51	-5.49%	3.06%	1.43%	-14.10%
BZUN	56 Neutral	$184.83M	―	-4.61%	―	6.05%	29.58%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

BZUN

Baozun

3.01

0.79

35.59%

VIPS

Vipshop

17.11

5.28

44.63%

31.81

5.87

22.63%

BABA

Alibaba

124.19

45.88

58.59%

BWMX

Betterware de Mexico

13.32

1.00

8.12%

MNSO

MINISO Group Holding

25.99

10.89

72.12%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 26, 2025