Baozun (BZUN) AI Stock Analysis

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Baozun

(NASDAQ:BZUN)

Rating:51Neutral

Price Target:

$3.00

▲(6.01%Upside)

Baozun's overall stock score reflects a challenging financial position with profitability issues, despite moderate revenue growth and a solid equity base. Technical indicators suggest bearish momentum, while valuation metrics are unfavorable due to negative earnings. The optimistic outlook from the earnings call provides some balance, highlighting strategic advancements and improvements in gross margins.

Positive Factors

Brand Management Performance

Baozun Brand Management reported a 10% growth, spurred by improved order attach rates and new store openings.

Earnings Outlook

The better-than-expected third-quarter results have led to an enhanced full-year earnings outlook.

Revenue Growth

Baozun E-commerce achieved a 14% revenue growth, bolstered by high-quality new distribution businesses and increased services revenue.

Negative Factors

Operating Efficiency

Management's focus on operating efficiency over business expansion may delay growth initiatives.

Target Price Adjustment

The analyst's SOTP-based target price has been adjusted to US$3.1, indicating a cautious earnings growth outlook.

Baozun (BZUN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$170.52M

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)326.02K

Price to Earnings (P/E)―

Beta (1Y)0.86

Revenue Growth6.05%

EPS Growth29.58%

CountryUS

Employees7,650

SectorConsumer Cyclical

Sector Strength58

IndustrySpecialty Retail

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)-0.15

Shares Outstanding58,602,894

10 Day Avg. Volume162,954

30 Day Avg. Volume326,020

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-0.05

Price to Book (P/B)1.64

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio38.14

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$3.53

Price Target Upside24.73% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering1

Baozun Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionBaozun Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides e-commerce solutions to brand partners in the People's Republic of China. The company offers IT infrastructure setup and integration, online store design and setup, online store operations, visual merchandising and marketing campaigns, customer services, and warehousing and order fulfilment. It serves brand partners in various categories, including apparel and accessories; appliances; electronics; home and furnishings; food and health products; beauty and cosmetics; fast moving consumer goods, and mother and baby products; and automobiles. The company was formerly known as Baozun Cayman Inc. and changed its name to Baozun Inc. in March 2015. Baozun Inc. was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.

How the Company Makes MoneyBaozun makes money primarily through its end-to-end e-commerce solutions and services offered to brands looking to enhance their online retail capabilities. The company's revenue model is based on multiple streams including service fees, sales commissions, and value-added services. Service fees are charged for setting up and managing online stores, providing IT solutions, and executing digital marketing campaigns. Sales commissions are earned based on the volume of transactions processed through the online stores managed by Baozun. Additionally, the company generates revenue through value-added services such as warehousing, logistics, and customer support, which are crucial for maintaining efficient and seamless operations for their clients. Baozun's strategic partnerships with major e-commerce platforms like Alibaba's Tmall also play a significant role in facilitating access to a wider consumer base, thus contributing to their earnings.

Baozun Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 21, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: -12.11%|

Next Earnings Date:Aug 21, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call presented a balanced view with strong revenue growth, notable improvements in gross margin, and sustainability achievements. However, the E-Commerce segment faced challenges, highlighted by operating losses and restructuring costs. Despite challenges, the overall sentiment leans towards optimism due to strategic advancements and BBM's strong performance.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Revenue Growth and Diversification

Baozun Group achieved a 4% year-over-year revenue growth with diversified revenue streams. BBM (Baozun Brand Management) accelerated its strong momentum with a 23% year-over-year sales growth.

Gross Margin Improvement

The blended gross margin for product sales at the group level was 32.4%. Gross profit increased by 18.9% year-over-year to RMB262 million for the quarter.

Sustainability Achievements

Baozun achieved a 36% reduction in Scope 1 and 2 carbon emissions versus the base year 2021, progressing towards a 50% reduction by 2030.

Strong Performance in BBM

BBM achieved a 23% year-on-year sales growth, driven by key metrics improvements like same-store sales growth and traffic growth.

Negative Updates

E-Commerce Segment Challenges

Adjusted operating loss from the E-Commerce segment totaled RMB46 million, a decline of RMB58 million from the same period last year due to low seasonality and strategic investments.

Personnel Restructuring Costs

Incurred approximately RMB80 million in restructuring costs related to human resource reform during the quarter.

Challenges in Warehouse and Logistics Revenue

Revenues from warehouse and logistics, as well as digital marketing and IT, declined by middle single-digit year-over-year due to reduced volume from key clients in the Sportswear segment.

Company Guidance

During Baozun's First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company reported a 4.3% year-over-year increase in total net revenues, reaching RMB2.1 billion. Specifically, E-Commerce revenue grew slightly by 1.4% to RMB1.7 billion, while Brand Management revenue rose by 23% to RMB387 million. The gross margin for product sales at the group level was reported at 32.4%, with a gross profit increase of 18.9% year-over-year to RMB262 million. E-Commerce product sales gross margin improved to 15%, up 130 basis points from the previous year, whereas Brand Management's gross margin was 51.6%, slightly down from 53.1% a year ago. The company also highlighted a 36% reduction in Scope 1 and 2 carbon emissions since 2021, progressing towards a 50% reduction target by 2030. Additionally, Baozun's BBM segment, particularly the Gap and Hunter brands, demonstrated robust performance, contributing to an overall positive outlook for the fiscal year 2025.

Baozun Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Baozun's financial performance is mixed, with moderate revenue growth but profitability challenges. The company has a stable gross profit margin but is experiencing negative net profit margins and inconsistent cash flow generation, posing risks to operational efficiency and future investments.

Income Statement

Neutral

Baozun's revenue has shown moderate growth in recent years, but the company has struggled with profitability. The gross profit margin has been stable around 47%, but net profit margins are negative due to consistent net losses. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have also been under pressure, indicating challenges in cost management and operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

Neutral

The balance sheet shows a moderate debt-to-equity ratio with a slight increase in leverage over the past years. The company maintains a healthy equity ratio, indicating a solid equity base relative to its assets. However, the return on equity has been negative due to persistent net losses, highlighting profitability concerns.

Cash Flow

Neutral

Baozun's cash flow position is mixed, with fluctuating free cash flow levels and a declining operating cash flow. The operating cash flow to net income ratio shows some operational cash efficiency, but the negative free cash flow to net income ratio highlights cash flow challenges, potentially impacting future growth and investment capabilities.

TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
9.21B	9.42B	8.81B	8.40B	9.40B	8.85B
	Gross Profit
4.31B	4.49B	3.90B	3.42B	3.46B	3.27B
	EBIT
-181.64M	-114.83M	-206.38M	33.29M	-136.97M	558.68M
	EBITDA
-123.17M	190.85M	75.95M	-326.85M	109.78M	600.05M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-233.74M	-185.20M	-278.42M	-606.79M	-209.26M	425.99M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
2.33B	2.56B	2.87B	3.04B	4.61B	5.03B
	Total Assets
10.02B	10.21B	10.47B	10.12B	12.32B	10.47B
	Total Debt
2.52B	2.52B	2.75B	2.41B	3.98B	2.80B
	Net Debt
1.45B	1.23B	604.90M	269.29M	-626.81M	-780.44M
	Total Liabilities
4.28B	4.43B	4.62B	4.45B	5.84B	4.34B
	Stockholders Equity
3.91B	3.91B	4.10B	4.08B	5.94B	6.11B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
0.00	-106.99M	283.25M	175.65M	-381.69M	198.96M
	Operating Cash Flow
0.00	101.28M	448.25M	382.61M	-96.11M	310.01M
	Investing Cash Flow
0.00	-817.61M	-340.37M	-1.31B	375.82M	-616.37M
	Financing Cash Flow
0.00	-19.74M	-8.03M	-1.65B	749.95M	2.67B

Baozun Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price2.83

Price Trends

50DMA

2.79

Positive

100DMA

3.01

Negative

200DMA

2.95

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.05

Positive

RSI

45.60

Neutral

STOCH

54.55

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BZUN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.83 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.94, above the 50-day MA of 2.79, and below the 200-day MA of 2.95, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.05 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.60 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 54.55 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BZUN.

Baozun Risk Analysis

Baozun disclosed 114 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Baozun reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks

We may incur impairment charges for our goodwill. Q4, 2023

Our plans to innovate, expand our product offerings and successfully implement our growth strategies may not be successful, and implementation of these plans may divert our operational, managerial and administrative resources, which could harm our competitive position and reduce our revenue and profitability. Q4, 2023

We are subject to changing laws and regulations regarding regulatory matters, corporate governance and public disclosure that have increased both our costs and the risk of non-compliance. Q4, 2023

Baozun Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (62)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BABA	81 Outperform	$272.22B	14.78	13.04%	0.87%	4.28%	28.42%
JD	81 Outperform	$52.65B	7.99	19.81%	2.99%	8.13%	91.39%
VIPS	78 Outperform	$7.63B	7.71	19.00%	3.24%	-5.90%	-11.16%
MNSO	76 Outperform	$5.68B	16.11	24.98%	3.70%	9.80%	-6.33%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$6.82B	11.05	2.80%	4.32%	2.67%	-24.92%
BWMX	61 Neutral	$291.44M	9.72	42.07%	17.30%	-5.05%	-55.00%
BZUN	51 Neutral	$170.52M	―	-4.61%	―	6.05%	29.58%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

BZUN

Baozun

2.83

0.48

20.43%

VIPS

Vipshop

14.82

0.04

0.27%

32.76

3.52

12.04%

BABA

Alibaba

112.87

39.55

53.94%

BWMX

Betterware de Mexico

7.81

-6.32

-44.73%

MNSO

MINISO Group Holding

17.66

-2.69

-13.22%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.