Baozun (BZUN) AI Stock Analysis

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Baozun

(NASDAQ:BZUN)

55Neutral

Baozun's overall score reflects a balance between moderate financial performance and positive recent earnings call sentiment. While technical indicators show short-term momentum, the negative valuation metrics and profitability challenges weigh on the stock's appeal. Strategic expansions and solid revenue growth provide a positive outlook, but operational inefficiencies and cash flow concerns remain as key risks.

Positive Factors

Brand Management

Baozun Brand Management booked 17% YoY growth driven by higher sales from Gap brand and new store openings.

Revenue Growth

Baozun E-commerce inked revenue growth of 14%, further improved from 6% driven by introduction of high-quality new distribution businesses and ramp-up of services revenue.

Negative Factors

Operating Efficiency

Analyst expects management to prioritize operating efficiency gains over business expansion, which should achieve non-GAAP OP breakeven in 4Q25.

Baozun (BZUN) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$162.81M

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)369.77K

Price to Earnings (P/E)―

Beta (1Y)1.13

Revenue Growth5.34%

EPS Growth34.89%

CountryUS

Employees7,650

SectorConsumer Cyclical

Sector Strength62

IndustrySpecialty Retail

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)-0.43

Shares Outstanding58,556,194

10 Day Avg. Volume267,915

30 Day Avg. Volume369,772

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)0.00

P/FCF Ratio0.00

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$4.02

Price Target Upside41.55% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering2

Baozun Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionBaozun Inc. (BZUN) is a leading e-commerce service partner in China that focuses on helping brands execute their e-commerce strategies. The company offers a comprehensive range of services including online store operations, digital marketing, customer service, IT solutions, and warehousing and fulfillment. Baozun collaborates with a wide array of international and domestic brands across various sectors such as electronics, apparel, and fast-moving consumer goods to enhance their online presence and drive e-commerce growth.

How the Company Makes MoneyBaozun makes money primarily through its end-to-end e-commerce solutions and services offered to brands looking to enhance their online retail capabilities. The company's revenue model is based on multiple streams including service fees, sales commissions, and value-added services. Service fees are charged for setting up and managing online stores, providing IT solutions, and executing digital marketing campaigns. Sales commissions are earned based on the volume of transactions processed through the online stores managed by Baozun. Additionally, the company generates revenue through value-added services such as warehousing, logistics, and customer support, which are crucial for maintaining efficient and seamless operations for their clients. Baozun's strategic partnerships with major e-commerce platforms like Alibaba's Tmall also play a significant role in facilitating access to a wider consumer base, thus contributing to their earnings.

Baozun Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Baozun is facing significant financial challenges, particularly in profitability. Revenue and profit margins have deteriorated, yet the balance sheet remains stable with manageable debt levels. Cash flow shows resilience, but volatility in free cash flow presents risks. Addressing operational inefficiencies is crucial for improvement.

Income Statement

Neutral

The income statement shows a concerning trend with declining revenue over recent years, highlighted by a negative revenue growth rate from 2020 to 2023. Gross profit margin is stable, but there is a significant deterioration in net profit margin as the company has reported negative net income in the last three years. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are weak, indicating operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

Neutral

The balance sheet reflects a moderate level of financial health. The debt-to-equity ratio remains manageable, indicating the company is not excessively leveraged. However, the return on equity is negative due to recent losses. The equity ratio is stable, suggesting a balanced asset structure, but the decline in stockholders' equity is a concern.

Cash Flow

Neutral

Cash flow analysis reveals some positive trends, with operating cash flow improving slightly, but free cash flow growth is inconsistent. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is positive, suggesting good cash flow management despite reported net losses. However, free cash flow is volatile, highlighting potential liquidity risks.

Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020	Dec 2019
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
8.81B	8.40B	9.40B	8.85B	7.28B
	Gross Profit
3.90B	3.42B	3.46B	3.27B	2.83B
	EBIT
-206.38M	33.29M	-136.97M	558.68M	306.17M
	EBITDA
75.95M	-326.85M	109.78M	600.05M	529.68M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-278.42M	-606.79M	-209.26M	425.99M	281.30M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
2.87B	3.04B	4.61B	5.03B	1.99B
	Total Assets
10.47B	10.12B	12.32B	10.47B	7.10B
	Total Debt
2.75B	2.41B	3.98B	2.80B	2.95B
	Net Debt
604.90M	269.29M	-626.81M	-780.44M	1.80B
	Total Liabilities
4.62B	4.45B	5.84B	4.34B	4.51B
	Stockholders Equity
4.10B	4.08B	5.94B	6.11B	2.57B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
283.25M	175.65M	-381.69M	198.96M	210.13M
	Operating Cash Flow
448.25M	382.61M	-96.11M	310.01M	301.40M
	Investing Cash Flow
-340.37M	-1.31B	375.82M	-616.37M	-1.13B
	Financing Cash Flow
-8.03M	-1.65B	749.95M	2.67B	1.78B

Baozun Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price2.84

Price Trends

50DMA

2.86

Negative

100DMA

2.96

Negative

200DMA

2.85

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.08

Negative

RSI

54.95

Neutral

STOCH

96.56

Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BZUN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.84 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.37, below the 50-day MA of 2.86, and below the 200-day MA of 2.85, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.08 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.95 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 96.56 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BZUN.

Baozun Risk Analysis

Baozun disclosed 114 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Baozun reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Baozun Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BABA	81 Outperform	$300.72B	17.68	11.97%	0.81%	4.28%	28.42%
VIPS	77 Outperform	$6.95B	6.79	20.12%	3.39%	-5.47%	-2.19%
MNSO	75 Outperform	$4.90B	13.48	26.89%	3.19%	10.01%	4.13%
JD	72 Outperform	$60.08B	10.22	17.55%	2.98%	5.20%	77.60%
BWMX	64 Neutral	$344.06M	11.48	42.07%	15.26%	-5.05%	-55.02%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$6.66B	11.71	2.96%	4.01%	2.64%	-20.91%
BZUN	55 Neutral	$162.81M	―	-4.63%	―	5.34%	34.89%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

BZUN

Baozun

2.84

0.13

4.80%

VIPS

Vipshop

14.24

-1.36

-8.72%

34.47

1.76

5.38%

BABA

Alibaba

125.76

45.92

57.52%

BWMX

Betterware de Mexico

9.22

-7.50

-44.86%

MNSO

MINISO Group Holding

18.13

-5.50

-23.28%

Baozun Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Mar 20, 2025

(Q4-2024)

% Change Since: -18.86%|

Next Earnings Date:May 22, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call indicates a positive sentiment with strong revenue growth and profitability improvements, particularly in the e-commerce division and BBM's expansion. Although there were challenges in product sales revenue and gross margins, the positive aspects, including strategic expansions and successful share repurchases, outweigh the negatives.

Q4-2024 Updates

Positive Updates

Revenue Growth

Baozun Group achieved an 8% year-over-year revenue growth in Q4 2024, with e-commerce revenue growing 6% to RMB 2.5 billion and brand management revenue growing 17% to RMB 535 million.

E-Commerce Division Profitability

E-commerce division reported a sustainable 16% increase in non-GAAP operating profits, with annual top line growth resuming after two years of contraction.

Expansion and Performance of BBM

BBM reported a 17% year-over-year revenue increase, with offline revenue growing for the first time since acquisition, and expansion into Tier 2 cities using an asset-light approach.

Douyin Channel Growth

Douyin channel maintained triple-digit growth, contributing 6% of e-commerce revenue, with successful live streaming events and recognition as a Diamond Brand Service Provider.

Successful Share Repurchase Program

Baozun completed a share repurchase program, repurchasing approximately 5.3 million ADS for $14.7 million, representing about 9% of total shares outstanding at the beginning of the program.

Negative Updates

Decrease in Product Sales Revenue

BEC product sales revenue decreased by 4% year-over-year to RMB 572 million, mainly due to weak performance in the appliance category, as Baozun prioritized profitability over revenue growth.

Decline in Gross Margins

Gross margin for e-commerce product sales fell to 10.8% from 12.4% a year ago, and BBM's gross margin decreased to 50.4% from 52.9% due to higher discounts during promotions.

Company Guidance

During Baozun's Fourth Quarter 2024 earnings call, the company reported an 8% year-over-year revenue growth, with their e-commerce division achieving a 16% increase in non-GAAP operating profits and Baozun Brand Management (BBM) narrowing losses by 20%. The company met its annual non-GAAP operating profit breakeven target, supported by positive operating cash flow and a healthy cash balance. Baozun's total net revenues for Q4 2024 reached RMB 3 billion, with e-commerce revenue at RMB 2.5 billion and brand management revenue at RMB 535 million, reflecting a 17% year-over-year increase. The e-commerce services revenue grew 9% year-over-year to RMB 1.9 billion, driven by a 16% increase in online store operations revenue and a 15% increase in digital marketing and IT solutions revenue. BBM also experienced a 17% year-over-year growth in product sales, primarily due to the strong performance of the Gap brand. On a full-year basis, Baozun Group's total revenue was RMB 9.4 billion, marking a 7% year-over-year increase. The company also completed a share repurchase program, acquiring approximately 5.3 ADS for $14.7 million.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.