Baozun (BZUN) AI Stock Analysis

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Baozun

(NASDAQ:BZUN)

Rating:52Neutral

Price Target:

$2.50

▼(-7.75% Downside)

Baozun's overall score is influenced by its financial challenges and valuation concerns, despite positive earnings call sentiment. The lack of clear technical momentum and negative P/E ratio weigh on the stock's attractiveness.

Positive Factors

Brand Management Performance

Baozun Brand Management reported a 10% growth, spurred by improved order attach rates and new store openings.

Earnings Outlook

The better-than-expected third-quarter results have led to an enhanced full-year earnings outlook.

Revenue Growth

Baozun E-commerce achieved a 14% revenue growth, bolstered by high-quality new distribution businesses and increased services revenue.

Negative Factors

Operating Efficiency

Management's focus on operating efficiency over business expansion may delay growth initiatives.

Target Price Adjustment

The analyst's SOTP-based target price has been adjusted to US$3.1, indicating a cautious earnings growth outlook.

Baozun (BZUN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$177.00M

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)291.59K

Price to Earnings (P/E)―

Beta (1Y)0.76

Revenue Growth6.05%

EPS Growth29.58%

CountryUS

Employees7,650

SectorConsumer Cyclical

Sector Strength64

IndustrySpecialty Retail

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)-0.15

Shares Outstanding58,615,494

10 Day Avg. Volume284,093

30 Day Avg. Volume291,589

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)0.00

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio0.00

Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.26

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.04

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.09

Enterprise Value/Ebitda-6.18

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$2.50

Price Target Upside-7.75% Downside

Rating ConsensusHold

Number of Analyst Covering1

Baozun Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionBaozun Inc. (BZUN) is a leading e-commerce solutions provider in China, specializing in helping brands execute their online retail strategies. The company offers end-to-end e-commerce services, including digital marketing, store operations, IT solutions, customer service, and warehousing and fulfillment. Baozun partners with a broad range of brands across various sectors such as fashion, electronics, fast-moving consumer goods, and home and furnishings to optimize their online presence and drive sales growth.

How the Company Makes MoneyBaozun generates revenue primarily through its service offerings to brand partners. The company's revenue model is based on a combination of service fees for its e-commerce solutions and a percentage of sales generated through the online stores it manages. This includes fees for digital marketing, IT solutions, and logistics services. Additionally, Baozun benefits from strategic partnerships with major e-commerce platforms in China, such as Tmall and JD.com, which help expand its reach and enhance service offerings. The company's earnings are significantly influenced by the growth in the e-commerce sector and its ability to attract and retain a diverse range of brand partners.

Baozun Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 21, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: -15.84%|

Next Earnings Date:Aug 21, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call presented a balanced view with strong revenue growth, notable improvements in gross margin, and sustainability achievements. However, the E-Commerce segment faced challenges, highlighted by operating losses and restructuring costs. Despite challenges, the overall sentiment leans towards optimism due to strategic advancements and BBM's strong performance.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Revenue Growth and Diversification

Baozun Group achieved a 4% year-over-year revenue growth with diversified revenue streams. BBM (Baozun Brand Management) accelerated its strong momentum with a 23% year-over-year sales growth.

Gross Margin Improvement

The blended gross margin for product sales at the group level was 32.4%. Gross profit increased by 18.9% year-over-year to RMB262 million for the quarter.

Sustainability Achievements

Baozun achieved a 36% reduction in Scope 1 and 2 carbon emissions versus the base year 2021, progressing towards a 50% reduction by 2030.

Strong Performance in BBM

BBM achieved a 23% year-on-year sales growth, driven by key metrics improvements like same-store sales growth and traffic growth.

Negative Updates

E-Commerce Segment Challenges

Adjusted operating loss from the E-Commerce segment totaled RMB46 million, a decline of RMB58 million from the same period last year due to low seasonality and strategic investments.

Personnel Restructuring Costs

Incurred approximately RMB80 million in restructuring costs related to human resource reform during the quarter.

Challenges in Warehouse and Logistics Revenue

Revenues from warehouse and logistics, as well as digital marketing and IT, declined by middle single-digit year-over-year due to reduced volume from key clients in the Sportswear segment.

Company Guidance

During Baozun's First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company reported a 4.3% year-over-year increase in total net revenues, reaching RMB2.1 billion. Specifically, E-Commerce revenue grew slightly by 1.4% to RMB1.7 billion, while Brand Management revenue rose by 23% to RMB387 million. The gross margin for product sales at the group level was reported at 32.4%, with a gross profit increase of 18.9% year-over-year to RMB262 million. E-Commerce product sales gross margin improved to 15%, up 130 basis points from the previous year, whereas Brand Management's gross margin was 51.6%, slightly down from 53.1% a year ago. The company also highlighted a 36% reduction in Scope 1 and 2 carbon emissions since 2021, progressing towards a 50% reduction target by 2030. Additionally, Baozun's BBM segment, particularly the Gap and Hunter brands, demonstrated robust performance, contributing to an overall positive outlook for the fiscal year 2025.

Baozun Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Baozun's financial performance shows moderate revenue growth but struggles with profitability and cash flow. The balance sheet is stable with manageable leverage, but negative returns and cash flow issues highlight the need for strategic adjustments.

Income Statement

Neutral

Baozun's revenue has shown moderate growth over the years, with a 6.9% increase from 2023 to 2024. However, the company has been struggling with profitability, as indicated by negative EBIT and net income margins in recent years. The gross profit margin remains healthy at around 47.6% for 2024, but the persistent negative net profit margin highlights ongoing challenges in managing costs and achieving profitability.

Balance Sheet

Neutral

The balance sheet indicates a stable equity position, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.64 in 2024, suggesting manageable leverage. However, the equity ratio has decreased slightly, reflecting a potential risk in asset financing. The return on equity remains negative due to net losses, which is a concern for long-term sustainability.

Cash Flow

Neutral

Baozun's cash flow situation is mixed. The operating cash flow has decreased significantly from 2023 to 2024, and free cash flow has turned negative, indicating potential liquidity issues. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is positive, suggesting that the company is generating cash despite net losses, but the negative free cash flow to net income ratio is a concern.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	9.42B	8.81B	8.40B	9.40B	8.85B
Gross Profit	4.49B	3.90B	3.42B	3.46B	3.27B
EBITDA	190.85M	75.95M	-326.85M	109.78M	600.05M
Net Income	-185.20M	-278.42M	-606.79M	-209.26M	425.99M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	10.21B	10.47B	10.12B	12.32B	10.47B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.56B	2.87B	3.04B	4.61B	5.03B
Total Debt	2.52B	2.75B	2.41B	3.98B	2.80B
Total Liabilities	4.43B	4.62B	4.45B	5.84B	4.34B
Stockholders Equity	3.91B	4.10B	4.08B	5.94B	6.11B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-106.99M	283.25M	175.65M	-381.69M	198.96M
Operating Cash Flow	101.28M	448.25M	382.61M	-96.11M	310.01M
Investing Cash Flow	-817.61M	-340.37M	-1.31B	375.82M	-616.37M
Financing Cash Flow	-19.74M	-8.03M	-1.65B	749.95M	2.67B

Baozun Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price2.71

Price Trends

50DMA

2.77

Negative

100DMA

2.81

Negative

200DMA

2.92

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.01

Positive

RSI

46.03

Neutral

STOCH

19.14

Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BZUN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.71 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.80, below the 50-day MA of 2.77, and below the 200-day MA of 2.92, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.03 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 19.14 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BZUN.

Baozun Risk Analysis

Baozun disclosed 114 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Baozun reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks

We may incur impairment charges for our goodwill. Q4, 2023

Our plans to innovate, expand our product offerings and successfully implement our growth strategies may not be successful, and implementation of these plans may divert our operational, managerial and administrative resources, which could harm our competitive position and reduce our revenue and profitability. Q4, 2023

We are subject to changing laws and regulations regarding regulatory matters, corporate governance and public disclosure that have increased both our costs and the risk of non-compliance. Q4, 2023

Baozun Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BABA	79 Outperform	$281.93B	15.39	13.04%	1.69%	5.17%	74.55%
VIPS	75 Outperform	$7.91B	8.05	19.00%	3.13%	-5.90%	-11.16%
MNSO	75 Outperform	$6.06B	17.88	24.98%	3.07%	9.80%	-6.33%
JD	74 Outperform	$50.13B	7.65	19.81%	3.17%	8.13%	91.39%
BWMX	69 Neutral	$489.22M	16.68	39.74%	10.53%	-8.56%	-57.78%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$16.54B	10.12	-9.01%	3.34%	1.45%	-22.43%
BZUN	52 Neutral	$177.00M	―	-4.61%	―	6.05%	29.58%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

BZUN

Baozun

2.71

0.50

22.62%

VIPS

Vipshop

15.35

2.26

17.27%

31.62

6.29

24.83%

BABA

Alibaba

117.04

40.49

52.89%

BWMX

Betterware de Mexico

13.11

0.04

0.31%

MNSO

MINISO Group Holding

19.61

4.60

30.65%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 01, 2025