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JD.com Inc (JD)
NASDAQ:JD
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JD (JD) AI Stock Analysis

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JD

JD

(NASDAQ:JD)

Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
$38.00
▲(14.39%Upside)
JD's strong financial performance and positive earnings call are the primary drivers of its overall score. The stock's valuation is favorable, although technical indicators show mixed signals. The company's strategic initiatives and growth potential further support a positive outlook.
Positive Factors
Consumer Sentiment
JD Retail continues to benefit from a healthy industry backdrop, supported by the ongoing trade-in program and improving consumer sentiment.
Core Retail Growth
Core retail sales are expected to show mid-teens percentage growth year-over-year, driven by strong performance in electronic and home appliances.
Ecommerce Growth
JD.com remains a key beneficiary of solid momentum in China's retail sales and physical goods ecommerce, with 3C and home appliances outperforming.
Negative Factors
Competitive Pressure
Due to lingering competitive pressure, the FY26 margin outlook has been trimmed and the price target reduced to $47 from $53.
Food Delivery Losses
Significant investments in Food Delivery and Instant Commerce have led to a revised 2Q25 non-GAAP net margin forecast lower to 1.5%, factoring in an expected ~RMB 10B loss from these initiatives.
Profit Margin Decline
The expected decline in JD.com's profit margins and earnings estimates reflects the ongoing financial strain from investments in food delivery.

JD (JD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

JD Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionJD.com, Inc. operates as a supply chain-based technology and service provider in the People's Republic of China. The company offers computers, communication, and consumer electronics products, as well as home appliances; and general merchandise products comprising food, beverage and fresh produce, baby and maternity products, furniture and household goods, cosmetics and other personal care items, pharmaceutical and healthcare products, industrial products, books, automobile accessories, apparel and footwear, bags, and jewelry. It also provides online marketplace services for third-party merchants; marketing services; and omni-channel solutions to customers and offline retailers, as well as online healthcare services. In addition, the company develops, owns, and manages its logistics facilities and other real estate properties to support third parties; offers asset management services and integrated service platform; leasing of storage facilities and related management services; and engages in online retail business. Further, it provides integrated data, technology, business, and user management industry solutions to support the digitization of enterprises and institutions; and technology-driven supply chain solutions and logistics services. The company was formerly known as 360buy Jingdong Inc. and changed its name to JD.com, Inc. in January 2014. JD.com, Inc. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.
How the Company Makes MoneyJD.com generates revenue primarily through its online retail operations, where it sells a diverse range of products directly to consumers. A significant portion of its earnings comes from the sale of electronics, home appliances, and general merchandise. The company also earns money through its marketplace services by charging third-party sellers commission fees for sales made through its platform. Additionally, JD benefits from its logistics and technology services, offering supply chain solutions and technology support to various businesses. Strategic partnerships and collaborations with other companies also contribute to its revenue, enhancing its service offerings and expanding its market reach.

JD Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Revenue by Segment
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue by different business segments, revealing which areas are the most lucrative and where JD might face opportunities or challenges.
Chart InsightsJD.com is experiencing robust growth across its segments, with electronics and home appliances leading the charge at a 17% increase, bolstered by strategic focus on user experience and 3P ecosystem expansion. General merchandise and marketplace revenues also show strong gains, reflecting effective customer engagement strategies. Despite challenges in new business operations, JD's commitment to leveraging AI and enhancing supply chain efficiency suggests a promising outlook. The company's strategic initiatives and revenue growth signal a positive trajectory, aligning with its optimistic earnings guidance and strong profit performance.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

JD Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 13, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: -7.85%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 25, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a generally positive outlook for JD.com, showcasing strong revenue and profit growth, increasing user engagement, and successful shareholder returns. Despite some challenges in the new business segment and lower free cash flow, the overall performance and strategic initiatives suggest a positive trajectory.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Robust Revenue Growth
Total revenues were up 16% year-on-year, with healthy growth across all major revenue streams. Electronics and home appliances revenue increased by 17% and general merchandise revenue by 15%.
Significant Profit Increase
Non-GAAP net profit increased by 43% year-on-year to RMB 12.8 billion, with net margin expanding by 82 basis points to 4.2%.
User Growth and Engagement
Quarterly active customer numbers were up double digits year-on-year, with increased shopping frequency and ARPU. JD also recorded double-digit growth in shopping frequency and ARPU.
Strong Momentum in New Business
JD's new business, including food delivery, turned around to positive growth of 18% year-on-year, with food delivery order volume nearing 20 million orders.
Successful Shareholder Returns
JD completed a cash dividend payout of USD 1.44 billion and repurchased 80.7 million Class A ordinary shares, equivalent to 2.8% of shares outstanding.
Negative Updates
Widened Operating Loss in New Business
Non-GAAP operating loss for new business widened to RMB 1.3 billion, driven by fast growth and investments in new initiatives.
Lower Free Cash Flow
Last 12-month free cash flow was RMB 38 billion, down from RMB 61 billion the previous year, primarily due to cash outflows associated with the trading program and efforts to secure product supply.
Company Guidance
During JD.com's Q1 2025 earnings call, the company provided optimistic guidance, emphasizing several key metrics. Total revenues increased by 16% year-over-year, driven by strong performance in its electronics and home appliance category, which saw a 17% revenue growth. The general merchandise category also experienced a 15% revenue growth, with the supermarket segment achieving double-digit growth for the fifth consecutive quarter. JD.com highlighted a 43% increase in non-GAAP net profit to RMB 12.8 billion, alongside an 82 basis points expansion in net margin to 4.2%. The company also reported a double-digit year-on-year growth in quarterly active customers and average user shopping frequency. JD.com emphasized its strategic focus on enhancing user experience and expanding its 3P ecosystem, which contributed to a 16% growth in marketplace and marketing revenues. The company also noted significant advancements in its food delivery business, nearing 20 million daily orders, and shared its commitment to leveraging AI to improve efficiency across its supply chain and advertising operations.

JD Financial Statement Overview

Summary
JD exhibits strong financial performance characterized by robust revenue growth, improved profitability, and a solid balance sheet. The company has effective cash flow management, though there are areas for potential optimization, particularly in free cash flow. Overall, JD's financial position is stable and reflects operational strength.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
JD has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a significant increase from previous periods, particularly the jump from 2020 to the recent TTM. The gross profit margin is healthy, reflecting efficient cost management, while net profit margin has improved drastically over the years, indicating better profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins have also shown improvement, depicting operational efficiency and strong earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.
Balance Sheet
80
Positive
JD maintains a robust balance sheet with a solid equity base, as evidenced by a favorable equity ratio. The debt-to-equity ratio is manageable, suggesting a balanced approach to leveraging. Return on equity shows an upward trend, indicating effective use of equity to generate profits despite some fluctuations in earlier years.
Cash Flow
78
Positive
JD's cash flow statements show a positive trend in operating cash flow, indicating strong cash generation from core operations. Free cash flow has been positive and growing, although there was a dip in the latest TTM compared to the previous year. The ratios of cash flow to net income highlight efficient cash conversion, although recent decreases suggest potential areas for improvement.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.16T1.08T1.05T951.59B745.80B
Gross Profit113.44B159.70B147.07B129.07B109.11B
EBITDA47.36B42.82B23.21B4.14B58.01B
Net Income41.36B24.17B10.38B-3.56B49.41B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets698.23B628.96B595.25B496.51B422.29B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments234.00B190.15B219.96B185.33B146.66B
Total Debt89.77B68.43B65.05B34.14B31.55B
Total Liabilities384.94B332.58B321.13B249.72B200.67B
Stockholders Equity239.35B231.86B213.37B208.91B187.54B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow44.28B39.51B35.84B23.74B34.87B
Operating Cash Flow58.09B59.52B57.82B42.30B42.54B
Investing Cash Flow-871.00M-59.54B-54.03B-74.25B-57.81B
Financing Cash Flow-21.00B-5.81B1.18B19.50B71.07B

JD Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price33.22
Price Trends
50DMA
32.86
Positive
100DMA
35.41
Negative
200DMA
36.96
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.17
Negative
RSI
52.83
Neutral
STOCH
62.60
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JD, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 33.22 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 32.53, above the 50-day MA of 32.86, and below the 200-day MA of 36.96, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.17 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.83 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 62.60 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for JD.

JD Risk Analysis

JD disclosed 111 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. JD reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

JD Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
79
Outperform
$286.88B15.7213.04%1.62%5.17%74.55%
78
Outperform
$162.15B12.5736.31%35.04%22.04%
78
Outperform
$93.37B110.9111.13%30.18%1995.22%
77
Outperform
$53.47B8.1119.81%2.95%8.13%91.39%
75
Outperform
$119.35B57.9149.11%41.92%81.11%
74
Outperform
$54.58B217.356.06%20.88%-80.08%
65
Neutral
€20.20B10.137.83%3.17%0.85%-38.46%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
JD
JD
33.22
6.86
26.02%
MELI
Mercadolibre
2,354.11
727.96
44.77%
BABA
Alibaba
122.15
45.43
59.22%
SE
Sea
160.74
95.70
147.14%
PDD
PDD Holdings
116.76
-6.40
-5.20%
CPNG
Coupang
30.06
9.73
47.86%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 19, 2025