JD (JD) AI Stock Analysis

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JD

(NASDAQ:JD)

Rating:81Outperform

Price Target:

$39.00

▲(19.05%Upside)

JD's financial performance and earnings call insights contribute most significantly to its robust score, highlighting strong revenue and profit growth. The favorable valuation supports the stock's attractiveness. Technical analysis presents some caution due to mixed signals, but overall, JD is positioned well for future growth.

Positive Factors

Earnings

JD delivered strong 1Q25 results, significantly exceeding expectations on both revenue and net profit.

Retail Growth

JD raised its FY25 guidance for JD Retail, projecting double-digit growth in both revenue and net profit.

Share Repurchase

JD has repurchased a total of 40.4 million ADSs, amounting to 2.8% of shares outstanding, with a remaining share repurchase program of US$3.5 billion effective until August 2027.

Negative Factors

Earnings Estimate Downgrades

No guidance for losses in JD's food delivery business is likely to lead to further earnings estimate downgrades.

Food Delivery Investment

The investment in the food delivery market introduces margin uncertainty for the remainder of the year.

Profitability Guidance Withdrawal

JD withdrew its FY25 group-level profitability guidance, citing limited visibility and ongoing market volatility.

JD (JD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$52.65B

Dividend Yield2.99%

Average Volume (3M)11.05M

Price to Earnings (P/E)8.0

Beta (1Y)0.98

Revenue Growth8.13%

EPS Growth91.39%

CountryUS

Employees570,895

SectorConsumer Cyclical

Sector Strength58

IndustrySpecialty Retail

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)1.17

Shares Outstanding1,432,535,000

10 Day Avg. Volume8,446,587

30 Day Avg. Volume11,045,669

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-0.10

Price to Book (P/B)8.73

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio33.59

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$48.77

Price Target Upside48.87% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering13

JD Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionJD.com, Inc. operates as a supply chain-based technology and service provider in the People's Republic of China. The company offers computers, communication, and consumer electronics products, as well as home appliances; and general merchandise products comprising food, beverage and fresh produce, baby and maternity products, furniture and household goods, cosmetics and other personal care items, pharmaceutical and healthcare products, industrial products, books, automobile accessories, apparel and footwear, bags, and jewelry. It also provides online marketplace services for third-party merchants; marketing services; and omni-channel solutions to customers and offline retailers, as well as online healthcare services. In addition, the company develops, owns, and manages its logistics facilities and other real estate properties to support third parties; offers asset management services and integrated service platform; leasing of storage facilities and related management services; and engages in online retail business. Further, it provides integrated data, technology, business, and user management industry solutions to support the digitization of enterprises and institutions; and technology-driven supply chain solutions and logistics services. The company was formerly known as 360buy Jingdong Inc. and changed its name to JD.com, Inc. in January 2014. JD.com, Inc. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.

How the Company Makes MoneyJD.com makes money primarily through its online retail operations, where it sells a diverse array of products directly to consumers. The company generates revenue from the sale of goods on its platform, leveraging its extensive logistics network to offer delivery services. Additionally, JD operates a marketplace model, where third-party sellers can list their products on the site, from which JD earns commission fees. The company also provides advertising services to these third-party sellers and earns revenue through its logistics and technology services offered to businesses. Key partnerships with international brands and technology firms further strengthen its market position and revenue streams.

JD Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Revenue by Segment

Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue by different business segments, revealing which areas are the most lucrative and where JD might face opportunities or challenges.

Chart InsightsJD.com is experiencing robust growth across its segments, with electronics and home appliances leading the charge at a 17% increase, bolstered by strategic focus on user experience and 3P ecosystem expansion. General merchandise and marketplace revenues also show strong gains, reflecting effective customer engagement strategies. Despite challenges in new business operations, JD's commitment to leveraging AI and enhancing supply chain efficiency suggests a promising outlook. The company's strategic initiatives and revenue growth signal a positive trajectory, aligning with its optimistic earnings guidance and strong profit performance.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

JD Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 13, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: -9.13%|

Next Earnings Date:Aug 25, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call presented a generally positive outlook for JD.com, showcasing strong revenue and profit growth, increasing user engagement, and successful shareholder returns. Despite some challenges in the new business segment and lower free cash flow, the overall performance and strategic initiatives suggest a positive trajectory.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Robust Revenue Growth

Total revenues were up 16% year-on-year, with healthy growth across all major revenue streams. Electronics and home appliances revenue increased by 17% and general merchandise revenue by 15%.

Significant Profit Increase

Non-GAAP net profit increased by 43% year-on-year to RMB 12.8 billion, with net margin expanding by 82 basis points to 4.2%.

User Growth and Engagement

Quarterly active customer numbers were up double digits year-on-year, with increased shopping frequency and ARPU. JD also recorded double-digit growth in shopping frequency and ARPU.

Strong Momentum in New Business

JD's new business, including food delivery, turned around to positive growth of 18% year-on-year, with food delivery order volume nearing 20 million orders.

Successful Shareholder Returns

JD completed a cash dividend payout of USD 1.44 billion and repurchased 80.7 million Class A ordinary shares, equivalent to 2.8% of shares outstanding.

Negative Updates

Widened Operating Loss in New Business

Non-GAAP operating loss for new business widened to RMB 1.3 billion, driven by fast growth and investments in new initiatives.

Lower Free Cash Flow

Last 12-month free cash flow was RMB 38 billion, down from RMB 61 billion the previous year, primarily due to cash outflows associated with the trading program and efforts to secure product supply.

Company Guidance

During JD.com's Q1 2025 earnings call, the company provided optimistic guidance, emphasizing several key metrics. Total revenues increased by 16% year-over-year, driven by strong performance in its electronics and home appliance category, which saw a 17% revenue growth. The general merchandise category also experienced a 15% revenue growth, with the supermarket segment achieving double-digit growth for the fifth consecutive quarter. JD.com highlighted a 43% increase in non-GAAP net profit to RMB 12.8 billion, alongside an 82 basis points expansion in net margin to 4.2%. The company also reported a double-digit year-on-year growth in quarterly active customers and average user shopping frequency. JD.com emphasized its strategic focus on enhancing user experience and expanding its 3P ecosystem, which contributed to a 16% growth in marketplace and marketing revenues. The company also noted significant advancements in its food delivery business, nearing 20 million daily orders, and shared its commitment to leveraging AI to improve efficiency across its supply chain and advertising operations.

JD Financial Statement Overview

Summary

JD has demonstrated strong revenue growth, improved profitability, and a robust balance sheet. The company shows effective cash flow management, though there are areas for potential optimization. Overall, JD is in a stable financial position, reflecting its operational strength and strategic financial management.

Income Statement

Very Positive

JD has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a significant increase from previous periods, particularly the jump from 2020 to the recent TTM. The gross profit margin is healthy, reflecting efficient cost management, while net profit margin has improved drastically over the years, indicating better profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins have also shown improvement, depicting operational efficiency and strong earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.

Balance Sheet

Positive

JD maintains a robust balance sheet with a solid equity base, as evidenced by a favorable equity ratio. The debt-to-equity ratio is manageable, suggesting a balanced approach to leveraging. Return on equity shows an upward trend, indicating effective use of equity to generate profits despite some fluctuations in earlier years.

Cash Flow

Positive

JD's cash flow statements show a positive trend in operating cash flow, indicating strong cash generation from core operations. Free cash flow has been positive and growing, although there was a dip in the latest TTM compared to the previous year. The ratios of cash flow to net income highlight efficient cash conversion, although recent decreases suggest potential areas for improvement.

TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
1.20T	1.16T	1.08T	1.05T	951.59B	745.80B
	Gross Profit
155.12B	113.44B	159.70B	147.07B	129.07B	109.11B
	EBIT
41.57B	38.74B	26.02B	19.72B	3.37B	44.23B
	EBITDA
54.27B	47.36B	42.82B	23.21B	4.14B	58.01B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
45.12B	41.36B	24.17B	10.38B	-3.56B	49.41B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
194.16B	234.00B	190.15B	219.96B	185.33B	146.66B
	Total Assets
677.86B	698.23B	628.96B	595.25B	496.51B	422.29B
	Total Debt
87.43B	89.77B	68.43B	65.05B	34.14B	31.55B
	Net Debt
-9.35B	-18.58B	-3.46B	-13.82B	-36.63B	-54.53B
	Total Liabilities
369.19B	384.94B	332.58B	321.13B	249.72B	200.67B
	Stockholders Equity
234.32B	239.35B	231.86B	213.37B	208.91B	187.54B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
30.12B	44.28B	39.51B	35.84B	23.74B	34.87B
	Operating Cash Flow
51.30B	58.09B	59.52B	57.82B	42.30B	42.54B
	Investing Cash Flow
-13.05B	-871.00M	-59.54B	-54.03B	-74.25B	-57.81B
	Financing Cash Flow
-20.85B	-21.00B	-5.81B	1.18B	19.50B	71.07B

JD Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price32.76

Price Trends

50DMA

34.13

Negative

100DMA

37.73

Negative

200DMA

36.85

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.34

Negative

RSI

43.55

Neutral

STOCH

55.42

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 32.76 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 33.20, below the 50-day MA of 34.13, and below the 200-day MA of 36.85, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.34 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 43.55 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 55.42 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JD.

JD Risk Analysis

JD disclosed 111 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. JD reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

JD Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (62)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BABA	81 Outperform	$272.22B	14.78	13.04%	0.87%	4.28%	28.42%
JD	81 Outperform	$52.65B	7.99	19.81%	2.99%	8.13%	91.39%
MELI	80 Outperform	$120.09B	58.35	49.11%	―	41.92%	81.11%
SE	77 Outperform	$91.40B	108.57	11.13%	―	30.18%	1995.22%
CPNG	74 Outperform	$51.02B	203.18	6.06%	―	20.88%	-80.08%
PDD	72 Outperform	$143.64B	10.83	36.31%	―	35.04%	22.04%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$6.82B	11.05	2.80%	4.32%	2.67%	-24.92%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

32.76

3.52

12.04%

MELI

Mercadolibre

2,371.98

812.75

52.13%

BABA

Alibaba

112.87

39.55

53.94%

Sea

154.38

79.46

106.06%

PDD

PDD Holdings

100.58

-47.72

-32.18%

CPNG

Coupang

28.10

7.56

36.81%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.