JD (JD) AI Stock Analysis

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JD

(NASDAQ:JD)

Rating:77Outperform

Price Target:

$38.00

▲(14.39%Upside)

JD's strong financial performance and positive earnings call are the primary drivers of its overall score. The stock's valuation is favorable, although technical indicators show mixed signals. The company's strategic initiatives and growth potential further support a positive outlook.

Positive Factors

Consumer Sentiment

JD Retail continues to benefit from a healthy industry backdrop, supported by the ongoing trade-in program and improving consumer sentiment.

Core Retail Growth

Core retail sales are expected to show mid-teens percentage growth year-over-year, driven by strong performance in electronic and home appliances.

Ecommerce Growth

JD.com remains a key beneficiary of solid momentum in China's retail sales and physical goods ecommerce, with 3C and home appliances outperforming.

Negative Factors

Competitive Pressure

Due to lingering competitive pressure, the FY26 margin outlook has been trimmed and the price target reduced to $47 from $53.

Food Delivery Losses

Significant investments in Food Delivery and Instant Commerce have led to a revised 2Q25 non-GAAP net margin forecast lower to 1.5%, factoring in an expected ~RMB 10B loss from these initiatives.

Profit Margin Decline

The expected decline in JD.com's profit margins and earnings estimates reflects the ongoing financial strain from investments in food delivery.

JD (JD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$53.47B

Dividend Yield2.95%

Average Volume (3M)9.33M

Price to Earnings (P/E)8.1

Beta (1Y)0.94

Revenue Growth8.13%

EPS Growth91.39%

CountryUS

Employees570,895

SectorConsumer Cyclical

Sector Strength64

IndustrySpecialty Retail

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)1.17

Shares Outstanding1,432,535,000

10 Day Avg. Volume11,059,622

30 Day Avg. Volume9,325,123

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.68

Price to Book (P/B)1.41

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio12.49

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$44.36

Price Target Upside33.53% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering14

JD Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionJD.com, Inc. operates as a supply chain-based technology and service provider in the People's Republic of China. The company offers computers, communication, and consumer electronics products, as well as home appliances; and general merchandise products comprising food, beverage and fresh produce, baby and maternity products, furniture and household goods, cosmetics and other personal care items, pharmaceutical and healthcare products, industrial products, books, automobile accessories, apparel and footwear, bags, and jewelry. It also provides online marketplace services for third-party merchants; marketing services; and omni-channel solutions to customers and offline retailers, as well as online healthcare services. In addition, the company develops, owns, and manages its logistics facilities and other real estate properties to support third parties; offers asset management services and integrated service platform; leasing of storage facilities and related management services; and engages in online retail business. Further, it provides integrated data, technology, business, and user management industry solutions to support the digitization of enterprises and institutions; and technology-driven supply chain solutions and logistics services. The company was formerly known as 360buy Jingdong Inc. and changed its name to JD.com, Inc. in January 2014. JD.com, Inc. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.

How the Company Makes MoneyJD.com generates revenue primarily through its online retail operations, where it sells a diverse range of products directly to consumers. A significant portion of its earnings comes from the sale of electronics, home appliances, and general merchandise. The company also earns money through its marketplace services by charging third-party sellers commission fees for sales made through its platform. Additionally, JD benefits from its logistics and technology services, offering supply chain solutions and technology support to various businesses. Strategic partnerships and collaborations with other companies also contribute to its revenue, enhancing its service offerings and expanding its market reach.

JD Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Revenue by Segment

Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue by different business segments, revealing which areas are the most lucrative and where JD might face opportunities or challenges.

Chart InsightsJD.com is experiencing robust growth across its segments, with electronics and home appliances leading the charge at a 17% increase, bolstered by strategic focus on user experience and 3P ecosystem expansion. General merchandise and marketplace revenues also show strong gains, reflecting effective customer engagement strategies. Despite challenges in new business operations, JD's commitment to leveraging AI and enhancing supply chain efficiency suggests a promising outlook. The company's strategic initiatives and revenue growth signal a positive trajectory, aligning with its optimistic earnings guidance and strong profit performance.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

JD Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 13, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: -7.85%|

Next Earnings Date:Aug 25, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call presented a generally positive outlook for JD.com, showcasing strong revenue and profit growth, increasing user engagement, and successful shareholder returns. Despite some challenges in the new business segment and lower free cash flow, the overall performance and strategic initiatives suggest a positive trajectory.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Robust Revenue Growth

Total revenues were up 16% year-on-year, with healthy growth across all major revenue streams. Electronics and home appliances revenue increased by 17% and general merchandise revenue by 15%.

Significant Profit Increase

Non-GAAP net profit increased by 43% year-on-year to RMB 12.8 billion, with net margin expanding by 82 basis points to 4.2%.

User Growth and Engagement

Quarterly active customer numbers were up double digits year-on-year, with increased shopping frequency and ARPU. JD also recorded double-digit growth in shopping frequency and ARPU.

Strong Momentum in New Business

JD's new business, including food delivery, turned around to positive growth of 18% year-on-year, with food delivery order volume nearing 20 million orders.

Successful Shareholder Returns

JD completed a cash dividend payout of USD 1.44 billion and repurchased 80.7 million Class A ordinary shares, equivalent to 2.8% of shares outstanding.

Negative Updates

Widened Operating Loss in New Business

Non-GAAP operating loss for new business widened to RMB 1.3 billion, driven by fast growth and investments in new initiatives.

Lower Free Cash Flow

Last 12-month free cash flow was RMB 38 billion, down from RMB 61 billion the previous year, primarily due to cash outflows associated with the trading program and efforts to secure product supply.

Company Guidance

During JD.com's Q1 2025 earnings call, the company provided optimistic guidance, emphasizing several key metrics. Total revenues increased by 16% year-over-year, driven by strong performance in its electronics and home appliance category, which saw a 17% revenue growth. The general merchandise category also experienced a 15% revenue growth, with the supermarket segment achieving double-digit growth for the fifth consecutive quarter. JD.com highlighted a 43% increase in non-GAAP net profit to RMB 12.8 billion, alongside an 82 basis points expansion in net margin to 4.2%. The company also reported a double-digit year-on-year growth in quarterly active customers and average user shopping frequency. JD.com emphasized its strategic focus on enhancing user experience and expanding its 3P ecosystem, which contributed to a 16% growth in marketplace and marketing revenues. The company also noted significant advancements in its food delivery business, nearing 20 million daily orders, and shared its commitment to leveraging AI to improve efficiency across its supply chain and advertising operations.

JD Financial Statement Overview

Summary

JD exhibits strong financial performance characterized by robust revenue growth, improved profitability, and a solid balance sheet. The company has effective cash flow management, though there are areas for potential optimization, particularly in free cash flow. Overall, JD's financial position is stable and reflects operational strength.

Income Statement

Very Positive

JD has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a significant increase from previous periods, particularly the jump from 2020 to the recent TTM. The gross profit margin is healthy, reflecting efficient cost management, while net profit margin has improved drastically over the years, indicating better profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins have also shown improvement, depicting operational efficiency and strong earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.

Balance Sheet

Positive

JD maintains a robust balance sheet with a solid equity base, as evidenced by a favorable equity ratio. The debt-to-equity ratio is manageable, suggesting a balanced approach to leveraging. Return on equity shows an upward trend, indicating effective use of equity to generate profits despite some fluctuations in earlier years.

Cash Flow

Positive

JD's cash flow statements show a positive trend in operating cash flow, indicating strong cash generation from core operations. Free cash flow has been positive and growing, although there was a dip in the latest TTM compared to the previous year. The ratios of cash flow to net income highlight efficient cash conversion, although recent decreases suggest potential areas for improvement.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.16T	1.08T	1.05T	951.59B	745.80B
Gross Profit	113.44B	159.70B	147.07B	129.07B	109.11B
EBITDA	47.36B	42.82B	23.21B	4.14B	58.01B
Net Income	41.36B	24.17B	10.38B	-3.56B	49.41B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	698.23B	628.96B	595.25B	496.51B	422.29B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	234.00B	190.15B	219.96B	185.33B	146.66B
Total Debt	89.77B	68.43B	65.05B	34.14B	31.55B
Total Liabilities	384.94B	332.58B	321.13B	249.72B	200.67B
Stockholders Equity	239.35B	231.86B	213.37B	208.91B	187.54B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	44.28B	39.51B	35.84B	23.74B	34.87B
Operating Cash Flow	58.09B	59.52B	57.82B	42.30B	42.54B
Investing Cash Flow	-871.00M	-59.54B	-54.03B	-74.25B	-57.81B
Financing Cash Flow	-21.00B	-5.81B	1.18B	19.50B	71.07B

JD Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Neutral

Last Price33.22

Price Trends

50DMA

32.86

Positive

100DMA

35.41

Negative

200DMA

36.96

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

0.17

Negative

RSI

52.83

Neutral

STOCH

62.60

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JD, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 33.22 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 32.53, above the 50-day MA of 32.86, and below the 200-day MA of 36.96, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.17 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.83 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 62.60 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for JD.

JD Risk Analysis

JD disclosed 111 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. JD reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

JD Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (65)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BABA	79 Outperform	$286.88B	15.72	13.04%	1.62%	5.17%	74.55%
PDD	78 Outperform	$162.15B	12.57	36.31%	―	35.04%	22.04%
SE	78 Outperform	$93.37B	110.91	11.13%	―	30.18%	1995.22%
JD	77 Outperform	$53.47B	8.11	19.81%	2.95%	8.13%	91.39%
MELI	75 Outperform	$119.35B	57.91	49.11%	―	41.92%	81.11%
CPNG	74 Outperform	$54.58B	217.35	6.06%	―	20.88%	-80.08%
Sector *	65 Neutral	€20.20B	10.13	7.83%	3.17%	0.85%	-38.46%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

33.22

6.86

26.02%

MELI

Mercadolibre

2,354.11

727.96

44.77%

BABA

Alibaba

122.15

45.43

59.22%

Sea

160.74

95.70

147.14%

PDD

PDD Holdings

116.76

-6.40

-5.20%

CPNG

Coupang

30.06

9.73

47.86%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 19, 2025