Mercadolibre, Inc. (MELI)
NASDAQ:MELI
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Mercadolibre
(NASDAQ:MELI)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$1,804.00
▼(-2.79% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is anchored by strong financial performance—especially very robust and growing free cash flow—plus an earnings outlook that highlights sustained top-line and fintech/commerce momentum. Offsetting this are a weak technical trend (price below major moving averages with negative MACD), a high P/E that raises expectations, and near-term margin pressure from deliberate investments and higher credit provisions.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Very large and growing operating and free cash flow provide durable financial flexibility: supports continued reinvestment in logistics and fintech, funds provisions and card issuance, reduces refinancing dependence, and underpins the company’s ability to pursue long-term growth initiatives.
Negative Factors
Deliberate margin compression
An intentional 'invest-first' strategy can meaningfully depress operating margins for an extended period; persistent lower margins reduce near-term free cash conversion per dollar revenue and leave less buffer for shocks, making long-term returns sensitive to execution and payback timing.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Very large and growing operating and free cash flow provide durable financial flexibility: supports continued reinvestment in logistics and fintech, funds provisions and card issuance, reduces refinancing dependence, and underpins the company’s ability to pursue long-term growth initiatives.
Read all positive factors
Mercadolibre Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where the company is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where the company is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyMercadolibre (MELI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$85.96B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)606.24K
Price to Earnings (P/E)44.8
Beta (1Y)0.89
Revenue Growth42.11%
EPS Growth-6.84%
CountryUS
Employees84,207
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustrySpecialty Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)37.88
Shares Outstanding50,697,180
10 Day Avg. Volume549,283
30 Day Avg. Volume606,241
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio11.34
Price to Book (P/B)15.13
Price to Sales (P/S)3.53
P/FCF Ratio9.48
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.10
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.98
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.78
Enterprise Value/Ebitda28.22
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$2,191.43Price Target Upside18.08% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering14
EPS Forecast (FY)39.35
Revenue Forecast (FY)$40.30B
Mercadolibre Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
MercadoLibre, Inc. operates online commerce platforms in Latin America. It operates Mercado Libre Marketplace, an automated online commerce platform that enables businesses, merchants, and individuals to list merchandise and conduct sales and purc...
How the Company Makes Money
MercadoLibre generates revenue primarily through a mix of commerce (marketplace-related) and fintech (payments and financial services) monetization. On the commerce side, it earns fees and commissions from transactions facilitated on its marketpla...
Mercadolibre Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a strongly positive operational and top-line picture—49% revenue growth, robust GMV and fintech expansion, significant improvements in logistics efficiency and record engagement metrics. Management acknowledges deliberate near-term margin pressure driven by accelerated investments (free shipping, 1P/CBT, credit card scale) and higher upfront provisions as the credit book grows and loan durations extend. While provisioning and NIM compression (especially in Brazil) are meaningful near-term headwinds, management frames these as intentional, disciplined investments with improving cohort performance and long-term payoff.Positive Updates
Record Revenue Growth
Net revenue increased 49% year-over-year in Q1 2026—the strongest growth rate since Q2 2022, driven by broad-based commerce and fintech expansion.
Negative Updates
Margin Compression from Deliberate Investments
Operating margin compressed to 6.9% as management deliberately increased investment intensity across commerce and fintech. Management indicated this investment posture is intentional and likely to persist in the near term.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Revenue Growth
Net revenue increased 49% year-over-year in Q1 2026—the strongest growth rate since Q2 2022, driven by broad-based commerce and fintech expansion.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's guidance was investment-first and fairly specific about near-term posture: they will "invest boldly" across commerce and fintech and have "set the dial" at Q1 intensity—income from operations was $611M (6.9% margin) on net revenue up 49% YoY—and do not expect that margin level to change materially in the near term while retaining the ability to dial it up or down. They cited concrete metrics that justify continued investment: Brazil GMV +38% YoY with items sold +56% (free‑shipping threshold lowered to BRL 19), Mexico GMV +28%, Argentina +41%, Chile +40%; Mercado Pago MAUs +29% YoY, AUM +77%, credit portfolio nearly doubled to $14.6B (credit book growth ~87% YoY), 2.7M credit cards issued this quarter (credit‑card TPV +90% YoY, card MAUs +68%); operational improvements (cost per shipment down 17% YoY and many SKUs in the BRL19–79 band approaching break‑even) support the plan, though they warned higher provisions / cost of risk (noted increase and NIM compression) will continue as the credit business scales and that targeted seller take‑rate cuts implemented at end‑Q1 will begin to impact P&L in Q2.Mercadolibre Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
92
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 31.80B | 28.89B | 20.78B | 15.11B | 10.78B | 7.07B |
| Gross Profit | 13.95B | 12.86B | 9.58B | 7.59B | 5.20B | 3.00B |
| EBITDA | 3.35B | 3.56B | 3.21B | 2.25B | 1.32B | 674.00M |
| Net Income | 1.92B | 2.00B | 1.91B | 987.00M | 482.00M | 83.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 46.93B | 42.67B | 25.20B | 17.61B | 13.74B | 10.10B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 5.46B | 6.30B | 3.75B | 3.75B | 3.03B | 2.79B |
| Total Debt | 12.35B | 11.39B | 6.85B | 5.33B | 5.41B | 3.98B |
| Total Liabilities | 39.65B | 35.92B | 20.84B | 14.54B | 11.91B | 8.57B |
| Stockholders Equity | 7.28B | 6.75B | 4.35B | 3.07B | 1.83B | 1.53B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 10.71B | 10.77B | 7.06B | 4.63B | 2.48B | 355.55M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 11.95B | 12.12B | 7.92B | 5.14B | 2.94B | 965.04M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -5.34B | -6.18B | -8.29B | -3.45B | -3.87B | -1.60B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 3.18B | 2.90B | 1.96B | -267.00M | 916.00M | 1.93B |
Mercadolibre Technical Analysis
Neutral
1855.83
Price Trends
1725.18
Negative
1850.09
Negative
2026.42
Negative
Market Momentum
-24.13
Negative
49.98
Neutral
90.39
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MELI, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 1855.83 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1679.32, above the 50-day MA of 1725.18, and below the 200-day MA of 2026.42, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -24.13 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.98 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 90.39 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for MELI.
Mercadolibre Risk Analysis
Mercadolibre disclosed 1 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Mercadolibre reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Mercadolibre Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $120.19B | 8.39 | 24.04% | ― | 11.69% | -1.85% | |
76 Outperform | $48.52B | 24.00 | 44.12% | 1.38% | 13.15% | 5.89% | |
73 Outperform | $55.45B | 34.36 | 14.24% | ― | 40.54% | 78.98% | |
71 Outperform | $85.96B | 44.77 | 29.58% | ― | 42.11% | -6.84% | |
66 Neutral | $6.45B | 22.95 | -25.47% | ― | 1.78% | 75.71% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
54 Neutral | $29.80B | -183.61 | -3.67% | ― | 13.10% | -163.64% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
MELI
Mercadolibre
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-34.62%
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Mercadolibre Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
MercadoLibre Adopts 2026 Executive Bonus and Retention Plans
Positive
Apr 4, 2026
On March 31, 2026, MercadoLibre’s board set performance goals for its 2026 bonus program, tying payouts for top executives to net revenues and financial income, operating income, adjusted total payment volume through Mercado Pago, and compet...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.