Mercadolibre (MELI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $110.51B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 463.32K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 53.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.94
• Revenue Growth: 38.01%
• EPS Growth: 44.52%
• Country: US
• Employees: 84,207
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Specialty Retail
• EPS (TTM): 8.32
• Shares Outstanding: 50,697,180
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 395,190
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 463,318
• PEG Ratio: 0.49
• Price to Book (P/B): 19.81
• Price to Sales (P/S): 4.15
• P/FCF Ratio: 12.21
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.14
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.80
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 10.64
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 37.93
• 1Y Price Target: $2,783.00
• Price Target Upside: 27.67% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: $2,396.00 ▲(9.92% Upside)

Score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (growth, profitability, and free-cash-flow strength) and a positive earnings call highlighting sustained high growth and improving logistics/fintech traction. The rating is held back by a mixed technical picture (negative MACD and below long-term averages) and a high valuation (P/E ~52), with leverage remaining a key risk despite good capital-market access.

Positive Factors

Consistent High Revenue Growth

Sustained 39% YoY growth and 27 straight quarters above 30% reflect durable product-market fit and strong network effects across Latin America. This scale supports reinvestment in logistics and fintech, deepens marketplace liquidity, and reinforces long-term competitive positioning.

Robust Free Cash Flow Generation

Strong FCF expansion and a 0.90 FCF/net income conversion indicate healthy cash conversion from operations. This durable cash generation funds capex for logistics, fintech lending, or debt repayment, enhancing financial flexibility over multiple quarters.

Improving Logistics Efficiency

An 8% reduction in Brazil unit shipping costs from higher volumes shows logistics scale and operational leverage. Durable cost improvements increase margin sustainability, support free-shipping strategies, and strengthen MercadoLibre’s fulfillment moat versus smaller rivals.

Negative Factors

High Financial Leverage

A 1.57 debt/equity ratio represents elevated leverage that can pressure cash flow flexibility and raise interest expense sensitivity. Over the medium term, high leverage limits strategic optionality and increases refinancing risk if macro conditions or rates worsen.

Margin Pressure from Brazil Investments

Aggressive free-shipping and logistics investments have compressed Brazil contribution margins. If higher volumes or monetization don't fully offset unit economics, sustained promotional and fulfillment costs could erode profitability across future quarters.

Argentina Macroeconomic Risk

Persistent economic volatility in Argentina raises funding costs, currency and pricing risks, and depresses local demand. Given the company's exposure, these structural macro headwinds can meaningfully constrain regional margins and cash generation over a multi-quarter horizon.

Mercadolibre Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

MercadoLibre, Inc. operates online commerce platforms in Latin America. It operates Mercado Libre Marketplace, an automated online commerce platform that enables businesses, merchants, and individuals to list merchandise and conduct sales and purchases online; and Mercado Pago FinTech platform, a financial technology solution platform, which facilitates transactions on and off its marketplaces by providing a mechanism that allows its users to send and receive payments online, as well as allows users to transfer money through their websites or on the apps. The company also offers Mercado Fondo that allows users to invest funds deposited in their Mercado Pago accounts; Mercado Credito, which extends loans to certain merchants and consumers; and Mercado Envios logistics solution that enables sellers on its platform to utilize third-party carriers and other logistics service providers, as well as fulfillment and warehousing services for sellers. In addition, it provides Mercado Libre Classifieds, an online classified listing service, where users can list and purchase motor vehicles, real estate, and services; Mercado Libre Ads, an advertising platform, which enables large retailers and brands to promote their products and services on the Internet; and Mercado Shops, an online storefronts solution that enables users to set-up, manage, and promote their own digital stores. MercadoLibre, Inc. was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in Montevideo, Uruguay.

How the Company Makes Money

Mercadolibre generates revenue through several key streams. The primary source is the fees charged to sellers for listing products and for transactional services on its marketplace platform. These fees include a percentage of the sale price and additional charges for premium listings. The company also earns significant revenue from its fintech operations, particularly through Mercado Pago, which offers payment processing services, digital wallets, and credit services. This segment has seen substantial growth as digital payments become increasingly popular in the region. Additionally, Mercadolibre benefits from logistics and shipping services through Mercado Envios, where it charges sellers for shipping and fulfillment solutions. Strategic partnerships with banks, payment processors, and logistic providers further enhance its revenue potential, allowing the company to capitalize on the growing e-commerce and digital payment markets in Latin America.

Mercadolibre Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mercadolibre exhibits strong financial health with impressive revenue and profit growth, supported by effective cost management. However, the high debt-to-equity ratio warrants attention, though the company maintains a strong return on equity and robust cash flow generation.

Income Statement

Mercadolibre has demonstrated strong revenue growth with an 8.7% increase in the TTM period, supported by a solid gross profit margin of 45.9%. The net profit margin is healthy at 8.5%, indicating effective cost management. However, there is a slight decline in EBIT and EBITDA margins compared to previous years, suggesting potential pressure on operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet shows a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.57, which could pose a risk if not managed carefully. However, the return on equity is impressive at 47.1%, reflecting strong profitability relative to shareholder investments. The equity ratio is moderate, indicating a balanced approach to financing.

Cash Flow

Mercadolibre's cash flow is robust, with a significant free cash flow growth of 32.16% in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.37, suggesting efficient cash generation from operations. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.90 indicates strong cash conversion, although there is room for improvement in operating cash flow coverage.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	26.19B	20.78B	15.11B	10.78B	7.07B	3.97B
Gross Profit	11.82B	9.58B	7.59B	5.20B	3.00B	1.71B
EBITDA	3.32B	3.21B	2.25B	1.32B	674.00M	293.00M
Net Income	2.08B	1.91B	987.00M	482.00M	83.00M	-1.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	36.69B	25.20B	17.61B	13.74B	10.10B	6.53B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	4.08B	3.75B	3.75B	3.03B	2.79B	2.46B
Total Debt	9.88B	6.85B	5.33B	5.41B	3.98B	1.71B
Total Liabilities	30.47B	20.84B	14.54B	11.91B	8.57B	4.87B
Stockholders Equity	6.22B	4.35B	3.07B	1.83B	1.53B	1.65B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	7.94B	7.06B	4.63B	2.48B	355.55M	935.41M
Operating Cash Flow	9.05B	7.92B	5.14B	2.94B	965.04M	1.18B
Investing Cash Flow	-5.84B	-8.29B	-3.45B	-3.87B	-1.60B	-252.18M
Financing Cash Flow	2.11B	1.96B	-267.00M	916.00M	1.93B	242.27M

Mercadolibre Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 2179.80
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MELI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2179.8 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2023.99, above the 50-day MA of 2083.47, and below the 200-day MA of 2269.32, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 21.74 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.00 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.59 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MELI.

Mercadolibre Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MELI	73 Outperform	$110.51B	53.21	40.65%	―	38.01%	44.52%
EBAY	70 Outperform	$41.08B	19.78	42.43%	1.38%	4.89%	17.30%
PDD	70 Outperform	$169.29B	12.71	29.98%	―	12.53%	-6.43%
SE	69 Neutral	$79.42B	57.37	15.66%	―	35.85%	1336.48%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
CPNG	60 Neutral	$41.01B	106.25	8.73%	―	16.63%	-62.54%
ETSY	57 Neutral	$6.04B	42.81	―	―	1.98%	-20.98%

Mercadolibre Corporate Events

MercadoLibre Issues $750M in Senior Unsecured Notes

On December 4, 2025, MercadoLibre, Inc. announced the successful issuance of USD 750 million in 2033 senior unsecured notes, marking its first transaction since achieving Investment Grade status. The offering was significantly oversubscribed, reflecting strong investor confidence in the company’s strategy and financial strength. The proceeds from the notes will be used for general corporate purposes, enhancing MercadoLibre’s liquidity and optimizing its funding structure under favorable market conditions.

The most recent analyst rating on (MELI) stock is a Buy with a $2750.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mercadolibre stock, see the MELI Stock Forecast page.