Alibaba Group (BABA)
NYSE:BABA
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Alibaba
(NYSE:BABA)
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Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
$135.00
▼(-4.26% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/02/26
The score is primarily constrained by weak cash-flow quality (TTM free cash flow deficit) despite steady revenue growth and a strong, low-leverage balance sheet. Earnings-call commentary supports longer-term AI/cloud and quick commerce upside, but acknowledges meaningful near-term profit and free-cash-flow compression from heavy reinvestment. Technically the stock shows a neutral-to-soft trend, and valuation (high P/E with low yield) is an additional drag.
Positive Factors
Strong balance sheet & net cash
Alibaba’s conservative leverage and large net cash position provide durable financial flexibility to fund multi‑year AI, cloud and quick‑commerce investments without immediate refinancing pressure. This balance sheet strength cushions cash-flow variability, supports capital allocation optionality and reduces solvency risk over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Sharp free cash flow deterioration
A large TTM FCF deficit and weaker operating cash flow signal materially reduced cash conversion from reported profits, likely driven by heavy reinvestment and working‑capital pressures. Persistently negative FCF limits internal funding for initiatives, increases reliance on balance sheet liquidity, and reduces margin for execution errors over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong balance sheet & net cash
Alibaba’s conservative leverage and large net cash position provide durable financial flexibility to fund multi‑year AI, cloud and quick‑commerce investments without immediate refinancing pressure. This balance sheet strength cushions cash-flow variability, supports capital allocation optionality and reduces solvency risk over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Alibaba Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down sales across Alibaba’s various business areas, revealing which segments are contributing most to growth and where there might be potential risks or opportunities.
Breaks down sales across Alibaba’s various business areas, revealing which segments are contributing most to growth and where there might be potential risks or opportunities.
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The Fly
The FlyAlibaba (BABA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$323.27B
Dividend Yield1.31%
Average Volume (3M)11.72M
Price to Earnings (P/E)137.7
Beta (1Y)0.89
Revenue Growth4.44%
EPS Growth-16.38%
CountryUS
Employees124,320
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustrySpecialty Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)40.00
Shares Outstanding2,399,134,000
10 Day Avg. Volume15,855,669
30 Day Avg. Volume11,716,258
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.23
Price to Book (P/B)2.23
Price to Sales (P/S)2.26
P/FCF Ratio28.84
Enterprise Value/Market Cap6.76
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.16
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.30
Enterprise Value/Ebitda16.50
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$189.89Price Target Upside34.66% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering17
EPS Forecast (FY)44.98
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.13T
Alibaba Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Alibaba Group Holding Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides technology infrastructure and marketing reach to help merchants, brands, retailers, and other businesses to engage with their users and customers in the People's Republic of China a...
How the Company Makes Money
Alibaba primarily makes money by monetizing commerce activity across its marketplaces and by selling related services to merchants and enterprises. A major revenue stream is customer management and marketing services: merchants and brands pay for ...
Alibaba Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 13, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presents a clear strategic story: strong top-line growth driven by accelerating AI + Cloud momentum (Cloud external revenue +40%, triple-digit AI growth, ARR targets) and improving unit economics in quick commerce, supported by a strong net cash position. However, near-term profitability and free cash flow are under material pressure (adjusted EBITA down 84%, FCF outflow RMB 17.3b) due to deliberate, large-scale investments and heightened capital intensity (compute demand ~10x vs 2022, server cost inflation >100%). Management frames these as intentional, long-term investments with clear monetization paths (MaaS, higher-margin AI services, T-Head chip upside), but the short-term trade-offs on margins and cash are significant. Overall, positives on growth and secular AI positioning are balanced by sizable short-term financial headwinds.Positive Updates
Group Revenue Growth
Total consolidated revenue of RMB 243.4 billion, with like-for-like group revenue growth of 11% year-over-year (excluding Sun Art and Intime).
Negative Updates
Large Decline in Adjusted EBITA
Total adjusted EBITA decreased 84% year-over-year, driven primarily by strategic investments in AI, quick commerce and user experience.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Group Revenue Growth
Total consolidated revenue of RMB 243.4 billion, with like-for-like group revenue growth of 11% year-over-year (excluding Sun Art and Intime).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that investments in AI + Cloud and consumption will continue to drive accelerating revenue and improving margins: group revenue grew 11% YoY to RMB 243.4 billion; Cloud Intelligence external revenue accelerated to 40% growth with AI‑related product revenue of RMB 9 billion this quarter and an annualized run‑rate of ~RMB 36 billion (USD 5.3 billion), accounting for 30% of cloud external revenue and posting triple‑digit growth for the 11th consecutive quarter — management expects AI products to exceed 50% of cloud revenue in about one year and model & application services ARR (platform ARR already >RMB 8 billion) to surpass RMB 10 billion in the June quarter and RMB 30 billion by year‑end; China e‑commerce revenue was RMB 122 billion (+6%) with CMR +1% (or +8% like‑for‑like), quick commerce revenue rose 57% to RMB 20 billion with UE targeted to turn positive by end of FY27; cloud adjusted EBITA margin was 9.1%, group adjusted EBITA fell 84% while GAAP net income rose 96% to RMB 23.5 billion, operating cash flow was RMB 9.4 billion (free cash flow outflow RMB 17.3 billion), net cash ~USD 38 billion (~USD 59 billion excluding long‑dated debt), a USD 1.05 per ADS annual dividend was approved, and management signaled continued heavy CapEx/OpEx to meet an anticipated ~10x 2022 compute demand (potentially exceeding the prior RMB 380 billion estimate) while ramping T‑Head chips (now serving >60% of deployed compute to external customers) to drive future margin expansion.Alibaba Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
67
Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
38
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.01T | 996.35B | 941.17B | 868.69B | 853.06B | 717.29B |
| Gross Profit | 411.95B | 398.06B | 354.85B | 318.99B | 313.61B | 296.08B |
| EBITDA | 132.37B | 182.67B | 164.01B | 153.11B | 128.23B | 217.96B |
| Net Income | 90.38B | 130.11B | 80.01B | 72.78B | 62.25B | 150.58B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.88T | 1.81T | 1.77T | 1.75T | 1.70T | 1.69T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 380.70B | 464.77B | 602.17B | 557.62B | 491.06B | 517.56B |
| Total Debt | 262.91B | 248.49B | 205.69B | 195.63B | 176.85B | 181.68B |
| Total Liabilities | 772.86B | 715.21B | 652.46B | 630.33B | 614.25B | 607.40B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.04T | 1.01T | 986.89B | 990.03B | 949.90B | 938.77B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -60.18B | 78.16B | 150.82B | 165.52B | 87.95B | 181.96B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 91.58B | 164.82B | 184.01B | 199.90B | 140.39B | 223.63B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -134.15B | -206.61B | -26.27B | -137.20B | -190.54B | -235.79B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 11.07B | -57.12B | -104.81B | -64.07B | -68.13B | 29.21B |
Alibaba Technical Analysis
Negative
141.01
Price Trends
131.95
Positive
144.24
Negative
149.38
Negative
Market Momentum
0.80
Positive
49.03
Neutral
24.95
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BABA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 141.01 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 135.39, above the 50-day MA of 131.95, and below the 200-day MA of 149.38, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.80 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.03 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.95 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BABA.
Alibaba Risk Analysis
Alibaba disclosed 70 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Alibaba reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Alibaba Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $139.71B | 11.49 | 26.44% | ― | 9.87% | -12.32% | |
74 Outperform | $2.85T | 18.49 | 23.34% | ― | 14.22% | 35.55% | |
71 Outperform | $83.71B | 52.55 | 29.58% | ― | 42.11% | -6.84% | |
67 Neutral | $44.75B | 13.78 | 6.15% | 3.37% | 12.13% | -67.45% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
54 Neutral | $323.27B | 137.72 | 9.98% | 1.31% | 4.44% | -16.38% | |
54 Neutral | $28.04B | -32.38 | -3.67% | ― | 13.10% | -163.64% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
BABA
Alibaba
131.47
11.99
10.03%
AMZN
Amazon
268.46
65.36
32.18%
MELI
Mercadolibre
1,677.90
-928.11
-35.61%
JD
JD
31.47
-1.08
-3.33%
PDD
PDD Holdings
97.79
-22.01
-18.37%
CPNG
Coupang
15.73
-11.55
-42.34%
Alibaba Corporate Events
Alibaba Issues New Shares Under Equity Incentive Plans in April 2026
Apr 24, 2026
Alibaba Group Holding Limited disclosed changes in its share capital pursuant to Hong Kong Stock Exchange requirements, reporting the issuance of new ordinary shares in April 2026 under its equity incentive plans. The disclosure, furnished to the ...
Alibaba Reports March 2026 Share Issuances and Confirms Hong Kong Public Float Compliance
Apr 8, 2026
Alibaba Group Holding Limited disclosed its Hong Kong Stock Exchange monthly return for the month ended 31 March 2026, filed to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on 8 April 2026, showing no change in authorised share capital, which remai...
Alibaba Keeps Share Capital Stable in February 2026 Hong Kong Monthly Return
Mar 3, 2026
Alibaba Group Holding Limited reported to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on March 3, 2026 that, as part of its obligations as a Hong Kong–listed issuer, it submitted a monthly return to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange covering shar...
Alibaba Reports Minimal Share Issuance and Confirms Public Float in January 2026 Monthly Return
Feb 4, 2026
On February 4, 2026, Alibaba Group Holding Limited filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and submitted its monthly return to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange for the month ended January 31, 2026, detailing movements in its ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.