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Alibaba (BABA)
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Alibaba (BABA) AI Stock Analysis

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BABA

Alibaba

(NYSE:BABA)

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Outperform 74 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$198.00
▲(15.18% Upside)
Alibaba's overall stock score of 74 reflects its strong financial performance and strategic growth initiatives in AI and cloud. However, technical indicators suggest caution due to potential overbought conditions, and valuation metrics indicate a fair market price. Earnings call insights reveal both growth opportunities and financial challenges.
Positive Factors
AI and Cloud Growth
Alibaba's investment in AI and cloud infrastructure is driving significant growth, positioning the company as a leader in these high-demand sectors, which are crucial for future technological advancements and market competitiveness.
Strategic Partnerships
The partnership with SAP enhances Alibaba's global cloud computing presence, leveraging SAP's enterprise software expertise to expand market reach and strengthen Alibaba's competitive position in the cloud industry.
Revenue Growth
Consistent revenue growth indicates strong market demand and effective business strategies, supporting Alibaba's long-term financial health and ability to reinvest in strategic initiatives.
Negative Factors
Decreased Adjusted EBITDA
The decline in adjusted EBITDA highlights challenges in scaling new business segments, which may pressure profitability and require careful management to ensure sustainable growth.
Free Cash Flow Outflow
Significant cash outflows for infrastructure investments could strain liquidity, necessitating efficient cash management to balance growth ambitions with financial stability.
Operating Losses in Quick Commerce
Ongoing losses in the quick commerce segment suggest challenges in achieving profitability, potentially impacting overall financial performance if not addressed effectively.

Alibaba (BABA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Alibaba Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAlibaba Group Holding Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides technology infrastructure and marketing reach to help merchants, brands, retailers, and other businesses to engage with their users and customers in the People's Republic of China and internationally. The company operates through seven segments: China Commerce, International Commerce, Local Consumer Services, Cainiao, Cloud, Digital Media and Entertainment, and Innovation Initiatives and Others. It operates Taobao and Tmall, which are digital retail platforms; Alimama, a proprietary monetization platform; 1688.com and Alibaba.com, which are online wholesale marketplaces; AliExpress, a retail marketplace; Lazada, Trendyol, and Daraz that are e-commerce platforms; Freshippo, a retail platform for groceries and fresh goods; and Tmall Global, an import e-commerce platform. The company also operates Cainiao Network logistic services platform; Ele.me, an on-demand delivery and local services platform; Koubei, a restaurant and local services guide platform; and Fliggy, an online travel platform. In addition, it offers pay-for-performance, in-feed, and display marketing services; and Taobao Ad Network and Exchange, a real-time online bidding marketing exchange. Further, the company provides elastic computing, storage, network, security, database, big data, and IoT services; and hardware, software license, software installation, and application development and maintenance services. Additionally, it operates Youku, an online video platform; Quark, a platform for information search, storage, and consumption; Alibaba Pictures and other content platforms that provide online videos, films, live events, news feeds, literature, music, and others; Amap, a mobile digital map, navigation, and real-time traffic information app; DingTalk, a business efficiency mobile app; Tmall Genie smart speaker; and Qwen, an artificial intelligence chatbot. The company was incorporated in 1999 and is based in Hangzhou, the People's Republic of China.
How the Company Makes MoneyAlibaba generates revenue through multiple key streams. Its primary source of income comes from its e-commerce platforms, where it charges merchants various fees for listing products, transaction commissions, and advertising services. The company also earns money from Alibaba Cloud, which provides cloud computing services and infrastructure to businesses, contributing significantly to its revenue growth. Furthermore, Alibaba has ventured into digital entertainment and media, including video streaming and online gaming, which also contribute to its earnings. Strategic partnerships with various companies, both domestic and international, enhance its market reach and revenue potential. Additionally, Alibaba benefits from its logistics and supply chain management services through Cainiao Network, which supports its e-commerce operations and adds another layer to its revenue model.

Alibaba Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Revenue by Segment
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down sales across Alibaba’s various business areas, revealing which segments are contributing most to growth and where there might be potential risks or opportunities.
Chart InsightsAlibaba's cloud segment is experiencing robust growth, with a notable 18% increase in the latest quarter, driven by AI-related products. However, traditional commerce faces challenges, with a 12% revenue decline in China due to logistics integration. The Taobao and Tmall Group show resilience with a 12% rise in customer management revenue. Despite a significant decrease in free cash flow, Alibaba is committed to shareholder returns, distributing $16.5 billion through dividends and buybacks. The company is strategically focusing on cloud and AI to offset traditional commerce challenges.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Alibaba Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 29, 2025
(Q1-2026)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 13, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted Alibaba's significant progress in AI and cloud growth, strategic partnerships, and consumer engagement through quick commerce. However, these positive developments were tempered by notable challenges, including a decrease in adjusted EBITDA, free cash flow outflow, and continued operating losses in the quick commerce segment.
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth
Excluding revenue from Sun Art and Intime, Alibaba's total revenue on a like-for-like basis grew 10% year-over-year.
AI and Cloud Performance
Cloud Intelligence Group revenue growth accelerated to 26% year-over-year with AI-related product revenue maintaining triple-digit growth for the eighth consecutive quarter.
Strategic Partnerships
Alibaba entered a strategic partnership with SAP focused on cloud and AI, enhancing their global cloud computing presence.
Investment in AI and Cloud
Alibaba announced an investment of RMB 380 billion over the next 3 years to build their cloud and AI infrastructure, with a CapEx investment in AI and cloud infrastructure reaching RMB 38.6 billion this quarter.
Quick Commerce Milestones
Monthly active consumers on the quick commerce business are approaching 300 million, leading to a 25% increase in monthly active consumers on the Taobao app.
Cloud Segment Acceleration
Cloud segment revenue grew by 26%, driven by surge in AI demand and increased customer adoption of public cloud services.
Negative Updates
Decreased Adjusted EBITDA
The adjusted EBITDA decreased 14%, primarily due to strategic focus on scaling quick commerce and partly offset by margin improvements across several businesses.
Free Cash Flow Outflow
Free cash flow was an outflow of RMB 18.8 billion, mainly due to accelerated pace on expanding AI + Cloud infrastructure.
Operating Losses in Quick Commerce
Despite progress, the adjusted EBITDA from Alibaba China e-commerce group decreased by 21%, with losses attributed to investments in the quick commerce business.
Company Guidance
During Alibaba Group's June Quarter 2025 earnings call, the company provided robust guidance, highlighting several key metrics. Excluding revenue from Sun Art and Intime, Alibaba's total revenue on a like-for-like basis grew by 10% year-over-year. The China e-commerce business saw a 10% increase in customer management revenue, while the Cloud Intelligence Group's revenue accelerated by 26% year-over-year, driven by AI-related product revenue growth, which maintained triple-digit growth for the eighth consecutive quarter. AI-related revenue accounted for over 20% of the Cloud segment's revenue from external customers. Alibaba's investments in their AI and cloud infrastructure reached RMB 38.6 billion for the quarter, contributing to a cumulative investment of over RMB 100 billion over the past four quarters. The company also announced a strategic investment of RMB 50 billion in consumption and a commitment of RMB 380 billion over the next three years to AI and cloud infrastructure. The quick commerce business saw monthly active consumers approaching 300 million, leading to a 25% increase in monthly active consumers on the Taobao app, with daily order volume achieving new records. Overall, Alibaba's strategic initiatives in AI and cloud, alongside the integration of multiple e-commerce platforms, are expected to drive long-term growth in the world's largest e-commerce market.

Alibaba Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Alibaba demonstrates strong financial performance with consistent revenue growth, healthy profit margins, and robust cash flow management. The balance sheet shows a strong equity position, though liabilities require monitoring.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Alibaba demonstrates strong income statement metrics with a consistent revenue growth rate of approximately 5.9% in 2025 compared to 2024. The company maintains healthy profit margins, with a gross profit margin at approximately 39.9% and a net profit margin at 13.1% for the latest fiscal year. The EBIT margin is robust at 14.1%, indicating efficient operational management. EBITDA margins also remain strong at 18.3%. These factors suggest a stable and profitable income statement performance.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Alibaba's balance sheet reflects a favorable equity ratio of 55.9%, indicating a strong equity position. The debt-to-equity ratio is reasonable at 0.25, showing balanced leverage. Return on Equity (ROE) is strong at 12.9%, demonstrating effective use of shareholder funds to generate profit. Although the company maintains a solid equity base, the growth in liabilities requires monitoring to ensure long-term financial stability.
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
The cash flow statement indicates a positive trajectory with stable free cash flow, despite a 48.2% decline in free cash flow in 2025 compared to 2024. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is favorable at 1.26, demonstrating strong cash generation from operations. The free cash flow to net income ratio stands at 0.60, highlighting efficient cash conversion. Overall, Alibaba's cash flow management remains robust amid investment activities.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue996.35B996.35B941.17B868.69B853.06B717.29B
Gross Profit398.06B398.06B354.85B318.99B313.61B296.08B
EBITDA188.04B182.67B164.01B153.11B128.23B217.96B
Net Income130.11B130.11B80.01B72.78B62.25B150.58B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.80T1.80T1.76T1.75T1.70T1.69T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments428.09B428.09B571.03B524.47B455.08B483.44B
Total Debt248.35B248.35B205.61B161.35B141.34B149.15B
Total Liabilities714.12B714.12B652.23B630.12B613.36B606.58B
Stockholders Equity1.01T1.01T986.54B989.66B948.48B937.47B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow65.44B77.54B149.66B165.40B89.44B188.60B
Operating Cash Flow163.51B163.51B182.59B199.75B142.76B231.79B
Investing Cash Flow-185.41B-185.41B-21.82B-135.51B-198.59B-244.19B
Financing Cash Flow-76.22B-76.22B-108.24B-65.62B-64.45B30.08B

Alibaba Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price171.91
Price Trends
50DMA
134.08
Positive
100DMA
125.29
Positive
200DMA
117.17
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
11.99
Negative
RSI
71.85
Negative
STOCH
76.73
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BABA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 171.91 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 154.10, above the 50-day MA of 134.08, and above the 200-day MA of 117.17, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 11.99 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 71.85 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.73 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BABA.

Alibaba Risk Analysis

Alibaba disclosed 70 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Alibaba reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Alibaba Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
79
Outperform
$54.48B9.7417.28%2.84%14.61%32.78%
79
Outperform
$180.53B14.1727.06%20.09%-1.83%
74
Outperform
$408.17B19.4415.22%1.15%5.48%128.65%
74
Outperform
$125.14B60.9635.94%38.27%46.21%
72
Outperform
$2.34T33.5421.16%10.87%56.13%
62
Neutral
$58.68B162.087.79%18.69%-65.55%
61
Neutral
$18.38B12.79-2.54%3.03%1.52%-15.83%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
BABA
Alibaba
171.91
67.54
64.71%
AMZN
Amazon
219.78
33.45
17.95%
MELI
Mercadolibre
2,468.42
416.46
20.30%
JD
JD
34.50
-5.50
-13.75%
PDD
PDD Holdings
129.99
-4.82
-3.58%
CPNG
Coupang
32.19
7.64
31.12%

Alibaba Corporate Events

Alibaba Grants Employee Awards Under 2024 Plan
Sep 5, 2025

On September 4, 2025, Alibaba Group Holding Limited announced the grant of awards involving 2,477,630 underlying shares to certain employees under its 2024 Plan. This move, which does not require shareholder approval, aims to attract and retain talent by rewarding employees for their contributions to the company. The awards, which have a mixed vesting schedule ranging from 12 months to 4 years, are intended to align the interests of the grantees with those of the company and its shareholders. This strategic initiative is part of Alibaba’s efforts to incentivize employees and ensure the company’s continued success and development.

Alibaba Initiates Exchange Offer for Senior Notes
Sep 4, 2025

On September 4, 2025, Alibaba Group announced the commencement of an exchange offer for its outstanding senior notes. This offer, which does not represent new financing, aims to satisfy obligations under a registration rights agreement from November 2024. The exchange offer involves swapping existing notes for new ones with similar terms but without transfer restrictions and registration rights. The offer will expire on October 2, 2025, unless extended, and is detailed in a prospectus filed with the SEC.

Alibaba Reports August 2025 Share Capital Movements
Sep 4, 2025

On September 4, 2025, Alibaba Group Holding Limited submitted its monthly return for August 2025 to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, as required by the Hong Kong Listing Rules. The report detailed movements in the company’s share capital, including a decrease of 6,072,000 in the number of issued shares, primarily due to share repurchases in August 2025. This activity reflects Alibaba’s ongoing efforts to manage its capital structure and could have implications for its market valuation and shareholder returns.

Alibaba Reports Share Repurchase Activities in August 2025
Aug 22, 2025

Alibaba Group Holding Limited has disclosed a series of Next Day Disclosure Returns to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, detailing changes in its issued shares and treasury shares. The disclosures, dated August 20, 21, and 22, 2025, highlight the company’s recent activities in share repurchases and cancellations on the New York Stock Exchange. Notably, Alibaba repurchased and canceled shares between July 30 and August 12, 2025, impacting its total number of issued shares. These actions reflect Alibaba’s ongoing efforts to manage its share capital and potentially enhance shareholder value.

Alibaba Reports Share Changes Amid Strategic Repurchases
Aug 8, 2025

On August 8, 2025, Alibaba Group Holding Limited submitted a series of Next Day Disclosure Returns to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, detailing changes in its issued and treasury shares from August 4 to August 8, 2025. These disclosures are part of regulatory requirements and reflect Alibaba’s ongoing share repurchase activities, which include shares repurchased on the New York Stock Exchange in late July and early August 2025. These actions are indicative of Alibaba’s strategic financial management and may impact shareholder value and market perceptions.

Alibaba Reports Share Changes and Repurchases in July 2025
Aug 1, 2025

On August 1, 2025, Alibaba Group Holding Limited reported several Next Day Disclosure Returns to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, detailing changes in its issued shares and treasury shares from July 28 to August 1, 2025. The company also disclosed repurchases of shares on the New York Stock Exchange during July 2025, indicating strategic financial maneuvers that could impact its market positioning and shareholder value.

Alibaba Reports Share Repurchases and Disclosure Returns in July 2025
Jul 25, 2025

On July 25, 2025, Alibaba Group Holding Limited submitted Next Day Disclosure Returns to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange for changes in its issued shares and treasury shares dated July 21, 22, and 23, 2025. The company reported several share repurchases on the New York Stock Exchange between July 14 and July 18, 2025, which are part of its ongoing efforts to manage its share capital effectively. These actions are in compliance with the relevant listing rules and reflect Alibaba’s strategic financial management to enhance shareholder value.

Alibaba Reports Share Changes and Repurchases in July 2025
Jul 18, 2025

On July 18, 2025, Alibaba Group Holding Limited submitted a series of Next Day Disclosure Returns to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, covering the dates from July 14 to July 18, 2025. These disclosures detail changes in the company’s issued shares and treasury shares, as well as share repurchase activities on the New York Stock Exchange. The reports indicate that Alibaba has been actively managing its share structure, which could impact its market positioning and shareholder value.

Alibaba Reports Share Movements and Repurchases in July 2025
Jul 11, 2025

Alibaba Group Holding Limited has recently submitted several Next Day Disclosure Returns to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, detailing changes in its issued shares and treasury shares between July 8 and July 11, 2025. These disclosures are part of Alibaba’s compliance with the Hong Kong Listing Rules, specifically Rule 13.25A, which mandates transparency in share movements. The company has also been actively repurchasing shares on the New York Stock Exchange, with several transactions occurring from June 27 to July 7, 2025. These actions reflect Alibaba’s ongoing efforts to manage its share capital and potentially enhance shareholder value.

Alibaba Completes HK$12 Billion Bond Offering Linked to Health Subsidiary
Jul 9, 2025

On July 9, 2025, Alibaba Group announced the completion of a private offering of HK$12.023 billion in Zero Coupon Exchangeable Bonds due 2032. These bonds are linked to Alibaba Health Information Technology Limited shares and are expected to be listed on the Vienna MTF. The bonds, which are unsecured and unsubordinated, allow holders to exchange them for Alibaba Health shares or cash. This move is part of Alibaba’s strategy to maintain Alibaba Health as a flagship healthcare platform and drive transformation in the ‘AI + Healthcare’ industry.

Alibaba Reports Share Changes and Repurchases in Early July 2025
Jul 7, 2025

Alibaba Group Holding Limited has submitted several Next Day Disclosure Returns to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, detailing changes in its issued shares and treasury shares. The disclosures, dated between June 30 and July 4, 2025, include the issuance of new shares under a share incentive plan and the repurchase and cancellation of shares on the New York Stock Exchange. These actions reflect Alibaba’s ongoing management of its share capital, which could impact shareholder value and market perception.

Alibaba Reports June 2025 Share Movements
Jul 7, 2025

On July 7, 2025, Alibaba Group Holding Limited submitted its monthly return for June 2025 to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, detailing movements in its authorized share capital and issued shares. The report highlighted an increase in issued shares due to the exercise of share options and the issuance of restricted share units, while also noting a decrease in shares due to repurchases. These changes reflect Alibaba’s ongoing efforts to manage its share capital effectively, impacting its financial structure and potentially influencing investor perceptions.

Alibaba Reports Share Changes and Repurchases in Late June 2025
Jun 27, 2025

Alibaba Group Holding Limited has submitted a series of Next Day Disclosure Returns to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, covering changes in its issued shares and treasury shares from June 23 to June 27, 2025. These disclosures, required under Hong Kong Listing Rules, provide transparency regarding Alibaba’s share movements and repurchase activities, which could impact shareholder value and market perception.

Alibaba Releases Annual and ESG Reports for Fiscal Year 2025
Jun 26, 2025

On June 26, 2025, Alibaba Group Holding Limited announced the release of its Annual Report and Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) Report for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2025. These reports are part of Alibaba’s compliance with the listing requirements of The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited. The release of these documents provides stakeholders with insights into the company’s financial performance and its commitment to sustainable practices, potentially impacting investor confidence and market positioning.

Alibaba Reports Share Changes and Repurchases in June 2025
Jun 20, 2025

On June 20, 2025, Alibaba Group Holding Limited submitted a series of Next Day Disclosure Returns to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, detailing changes in its issued shares and treasury shares from June 16 to June 19, 2025. The disclosures included information on share repurchases on the New York Stock Exchange, with specific transactions occurring on June 12 and June 13, 2025. These activities reflect Alibaba’s ongoing management of its share capital, which could impact its market positioning and shareholder value.

Alibaba Reports Share Changes Amid Strategic Repurchases
Jun 13, 2025

Alibaba Group Holding Limited recently submitted a series of Next Day Disclosure Returns to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, detailing changes in its issued shares and treasury shares from June 9 to June 13, 2025. These disclosures are part of the company’s compliance with Hong Kong Listing Rules, reflecting its ongoing share repurchase activities on the New York Stock Exchange. The repurchases indicate Alibaba’s strategic financial management and could impact its stock liquidity and shareholder value.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Sep 25, 2025