Baldwin Insurance Group (BWIN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.80B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 829.71K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.57
• Revenue Growth: 10.69%
• EPS Growth: 32.74%
• Country: US
• Employees: 4,000
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Insurance - Brokers
• EPS (TTM): 0.31
• Shares Outstanding: 95,624,270
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 895,905
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 829,711
• PEG Ratio: 1.36
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.22
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.79
• P/FCF Ratio: 40.25
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.22
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.16
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 13.04
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 24.88
• 1Y Price Target: $33.67
• Price Target Upside: 26.39% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 50 Neutral
• Price Target: $27.00 ▲(1.35% Upside)

The score is held back primarily by weak profitability and negative cash flow, reinforced by a bearish technical setup. Offsetting this, management cited solid organic growth drivers, strong sales velocity, and efficiency initiatives, while recent M&A is strategically positive but adds execution and financing/dilution risk.

Positive Factors

Low leverage / solid capital structure

A TTM debt-to-equity of ~0.20 and a strong equity ratio provide durable financial flexibility, lowering refinancing and interest-rate risk. This capital conservatism supports continued underwriting volatility, paced M&A activity, and room to fund strategic initiatives without over-relying on risky leverage.

Consistent sales velocity and segment growth

Sustained top-decile sales velocity (20%) and 16% organic growth in Underwriting Capacity & Technology Solutions reflect durable distribution strength and product-market fit. Persistent new-business traction supports recurring premium expansion, cross-selling opportunities, and long-term revenue compounding beyond transient cycles.

Scale and capability gains from strategic M&A

The CAC merger and related acquisitions materially expand specialty capabilities, reinsurance/MGA scale and analytics, strengthening competitive positioning. Greater scale and complementary capabilities create durable advantages in pricing, product breadth and client access that support multi-year organic and cross-sell growth.

Negative Factors

Negative operating and free cash flow

Persistent negative operating and free cash flow undermines internal funding capacity for growth, technology investment and M&A integration. Reliance on external financing or equity issuance to fund operations increases dilution risk and constrains the firm's ability to execute strategic initiatives over the medium term.

Ongoing unprofitability and margin pressure

A negative net margin and ROE, combined with a GAAP net loss, indicate the business is not yet converting revenue into sustainable shareholder returns. Without durable margin recovery or successful cost transformation, profitability shortfalls will limit reinvestment capacity and weaken long-term return potential.

Integration complexity and dilution from large deals

Large transactions funded with substantial cash and equity consideration, plus contingent payments and additional share issuances, introduce execution and dilution risks. Complex integrations and newly granted governance influence could distract management and pressure per-share metrics absent clear, timely synergies.

Baldwin Insurance Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. operates as an independent insurance distribution firm that delivers insurance and risk management solutions in the United States. It operates through three segments: Insurance Advisory Solutions; Underwriting, Capacity & Technology Solutions; and Mainstreet Insurance Solutions. The Insurance Advisory Solutions segment provides commercial risk management, employee benefits, and private risk management solutions for businesses and high-net-worth individuals, as well as their families. The Underwriting, Capacity & Technology Solutions segment offers Future platform, that manufactures technology-enabled insurance products suite comprises personal, commercial, and specialty lines; specialty wholesale broker business that delivers professionals, individuals, and niche industry businesses; and reinsurance brokerage services. The Mainstreet Insurance Solutions segment provides personal insurance, commercial insurance, and life and health solutions to individuals and businesses in communities. The company was formerly known as BRP Group, Inc. and changed its name to The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. in May 2024. The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in Tampa, Florida.

How the Company Makes Money

Baldwin Insurance Group generates revenue primarily through the sale of insurance premiums across its various products, including auto, home, life, and commercial insurance. The company earns money by collecting premiums from policyholders, which serve as a major source of income. Additionally, BWIN may receive commissions from insurance carriers for policies sold on their behalf, further contributing to their revenue stream. The company benefits from partnerships with various insurers, allowing it to offer a wide range of products while optimizing pricing and coverage for clients. Investment income from premiums held in reserve also adds to its earnings, as these funds are invested in various financial instruments to generate returns.

Baldwin Insurance Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Baldwin Insurance Group shows modest revenue growth but struggles with profitability and cash flow management. The balance sheet is strong with low leverage, but negative return on equity and cash flow issues highlight the need for strategic improvements.

Income Statement

Baldwin Insurance Group has shown a modest revenue growth rate of 2.04% in the TTM period, indicating a positive trajectory in sales. However, the company struggles with profitability, as evidenced by a negative net profit margin of -1.91% and a declining gross profit margin from previous years. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are relatively low, suggesting operational inefficiencies. Overall, while revenue is growing, profitability remains a significant challenge.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet shows a favorable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.20 in the TTM period, indicating low leverage compared to previous years. However, the return on equity is negative at -4.58%, reflecting ongoing losses. The equity ratio is strong, suggesting a solid capital structure, but the negative ROE highlights the need for improved profitability to enhance shareholder value.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a concerning trend with negative operating cash flow and free cash flow in the TTM period. The free cash flow growth rate is negative, and the operating cash flow to net income ratio is also negative, indicating cash flow challenges. While the free cash flow to net income ratio is high, it is due to negative net income, which is not sustainable. The company needs to address cash flow management to improve liquidity.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.47B	1.38B	1.21B	969.49M	559.97M	231.68M
Gross Profit	356.13M	344.19M	296.38M	250.05M	159.92M	57.56M
EBITDA	186.69M	164.62M	116.93M	87.57M	65.08M	18.75M
Net Income	-28.11M	-24.52M	-90.14M	-41.77M	-30.65M	-15.70M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.79B	3.53B	3.50B	3.46B	2.88B	1.53B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	89.72M	148.12M	116.21M	118.09M	138.29M	108.46M
Total Debt	1.72B	1.64B	1.63B	1.47B	1.04B	391.48M
Total Liabilities	2.67B	2.53B	2.48B	2.32B	1.69B	759.95M
Stockholders Equity	619.69M	583.22M	560.41M	608.10M	608.38M	367.78M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-64.57M	61.10M	23.27M	-24.44M	34.81M	31.35M
Operating Cash Flow	-23.24M	102.15M	44.64M	-2.46M	40.13M	36.82M
Investing Cash Flow	-141.89M	13.30M	-21.92M	-414.36M	-678.47M	-677.81M
Financing Cash Flow	146.36M	-29.64M	-26.23M	419.55M	724.06M	711.94M

Baldwin Insurance Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 26.64
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BWIN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 26.64 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 25.16, above the 50-day MA of 25.60, and below the 200-day MA of 33.03, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.37 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.50 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.74 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BWIN.

Baldwin Insurance Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CRVL	75 Outperform	$3.52B	33.80	32.63%	―	10.43%	29.22%
TWFG	72 Outperform	$1.44B	58.05	8.79%	―	18.54%	-67.02%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
CRD.B	67 Neutral	$527.73M	16.27	18.72%	2.47%	4.39%	61.61%
CRD.A	67 Neutral	$527.73M	16.53	18.72%	2.47%	4.39%	61.61%
SLQT	54 Neutral	$283.31M	-53.85	15.11%	―	13.16%	―
BWIN	50 Neutral	$3.80B	-62.01	-4.63%	―	10.69%	32.74%

Baldwin Insurance Group Corporate Events

Baldwin Insurance Group Closes Major Cobbs Allen Acquisition

On the closing date of a previously announced transaction, Baldwin Insurance Group completed a complex acquisition of Cobbs Allen Capital Holdings and related entities, including all equity interests in CACH Acquisition and CAC Group Life and a 60.19% stake in CAC Holdings, for total upfront consideration of $438 million in cash and 23.2 million Class A shares, plus up to $250 million in contingent payments and an additional $70 million in deferred cash due on the fourth anniversary. In connection with this and other pending acquisitions disclosed earlier in December 2025, the company issued a further 23,951,021 Class A shares in private, exempt offerings to accredited investors, entered into a long-term voting agreement with key sellers, and appointed Cobbs Allen co‑founder Paul Sparks to its board as a Class III director, moves that deepen its insurance and financial services capabilities while giving seller stakeholders meaningful governance influence over at least the medium term.

The most recent analyst rating on (BWIN) stock is a Hold with a $25.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Baldwin Insurance Group stock, see the BWIN Stock Forecast page.

Baldwin Insurance Group Announces Merger with CAC Group

On December 2, 2025, Baldwin Insurance Group announced a merger with CAC Group, a specialty and middle-market insurance brokerage firm, to create one of the largest independent insurance advisory platforms in the U.S. The merger, expected to close in the first quarter of 2026, aims to enhance Baldwin’s specialty capabilities and expand its market reach, positioning the combined entity as the largest majority colleague-owned, publicly-traded insurance broker in the country. The transaction involves a total upfront consideration of $1.026 billion and is anticipated to be accretive to Baldwin’s 2025 Adjusted EPS by over 20%. The merger is set to leverage Baldwin’s reinsurance and MGA operations, while integrating CAC’s industry-leading data and analytics platform, thereby creating new opportunities for clients and colleagues.

The most recent analyst rating on (BWIN) stock is a Sell with a $24.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Baldwin Insurance Group stock, see the BWIN Stock Forecast page.