Baldwin Insurance Group (BWIN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.37B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 829.71K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.66
• Revenue Growth: 10.69%
• EPS Growth: 32.74%
• Country: US
• Employees: 4,000
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Insurance - Brokers
• EPS (TTM): 0.31
• Shares Outstanding: 95,624,270
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 895,905
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 829,711
• PEG Ratio: -1.71
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.72
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.08
• P/FCF Ratio: -23.68
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.20
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.93
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.33
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 15.58
• 1Y Price Target: $29.43
• Price Target Upside: 73.72% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.92B

• Rating: 48 Neutral
• Price Target: $18.50 ▲(9.21% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/27/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/27/26

The score is held down primarily by weak financial quality (ongoing losses and recently negative operating/free cash flow) and bearish technical trend signals despite oversold readings. Offsetting factors include improved leverage, moderately constructive earnings-call outlook with cost initiatives, and positive strategic M&A, but valuation support is limited due to negative earnings.

Positive Factors

Strategic M&A Expansion

The CAC merger materially increases scale, specialty capabilities, and data/analytics reach, creating broader distribution and cross-sell opportunities. Greater scale and complementary capabilities support durable revenue diversification and competitive position over the next 2–6 months and beyond.

High-growth Underwriting & Embedded Platform

Sustained 16% UCTS growth and rapid channel expansion reflect structural demand for underwriting capacity and embedded distribution. Technology-enabled partnerships produce recurring referral volume and higher-margin solutions, supporting durable top-line growth and better product stickiness across distribution channels.

Cost Transformation Program

The multi-year 3B30 automation and AI program targets meaningful structural cost savings, improving operational efficiency and margin levers. Realizing these savings would sustainably lower expense ratios, help convert top-line growth into profit, and strengthen cash flow over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Negative Cash Generation

Persistent negative operating and free cash flow undermines the firm’s internal funding capacity for organic growth, technology investments, and M&A integration. Continued cash deficits will force reliance on external financing or equity issuance, increasing financing risk and constraining long-term flexibility.

Weak Profitability & Returns

Negative margins and ROE signal the company is not converting revenue into sustainable shareholder returns. This persistent profitability gap impairs ability to rebuild equity value, fund strategic initiatives internally, and justify continued investment absent clear margin recovery.

M&A Execution and Dilution Risk

Large share issuances, material contingent payments, and rapid deal activity raise execution, integration, and dilution risks. Near-term capital demands and governance changes increase complexity and could dilute existing shareholders or constrain balance sheet flexibility during integration.

Baldwin Insurance Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. operates as an independent insurance distribution firm that delivers insurance and risk management solutions in the United States. It operates through three segments: Insurance Advisory Solutions; Underwriting, Capacity & Technology Solutions; and Mainstreet Insurance Solutions. The Insurance Advisory Solutions segment provides commercial risk management, employee benefits, and private risk management solutions for businesses and high-net-worth individuals, as well as their families. The Underwriting, Capacity & Technology Solutions segment offers Future platform, that manufactures technology-enabled insurance products suite comprises personal, commercial, and specialty lines; specialty wholesale broker business that delivers professionals, individuals, and niche industry businesses; and reinsurance brokerage services. The Mainstreet Insurance Solutions segment provides personal insurance, commercial insurance, and life and health solutions to individuals and businesses in communities. The company was formerly known as BRP Group, Inc. and changed its name to The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. in May 2024. The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in Tampa, Florida.

How the Company Makes Money

Baldwin Insurance Group generates revenue primarily through the sale of insurance premiums across its various products, including auto, home, life, and commercial insurance. The company earns money by collecting premiums from policyholders, which serve as a major source of income. Additionally, BWIN may receive commissions from insurance carriers for policies sold on their behalf, further contributing to their revenue stream. The company benefits from partnerships with various insurers, allowing it to offer a wide range of products while optimizing pricing and coverage for clients. Investment income from premiums held in reserve also adds to its earnings, as these funds are invested in various financial instruments to generate returns.

Baldwin Insurance Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong revenue growth is offset by persistent net losses and a recent deterioration in operating and free cash flow. Balance-sheet leverage improved materially in the latest year, but negative ROE and weaker cash generation keep financial strength below average.

Income Statement

Revenue growth has been strong over the period (including triple‑digit growth in 2025 vs. 2024), showing continued scale-up. Profitability, however, remains the key weakness: net income is negative every year shown, and the latest year posts a negative net margin despite positive EBITDA margin. The combination of rapid top-line expansion with persistent bottom-line losses suggests cost pressure, integration/operating inefficiency, or other below-the-line drag that has not yet been resolved.

Balance Sheet

Leverage appears materially improved in the latest year, with debt-to-equity dropping to ~0.27 versus ~2.4–2.9 in prior years, which is a meaningful de-risking signal if sustainable. Equity is positive and has held in a relatively steady range, supporting balance-sheet stability. The main concern is continued negative returns on equity across all periods, indicating the company has not been converting its capital base into profits yet, even with the improved leverage profile.

Cash Flow

Cash generation turned weaker in the latest year: operating cash flow and free cash flow are both negative, reversing the positive profile seen in most prior years. While free cash flow has often been positive historically, the recent cash outflow raises questions around working capital needs, acquisition/integration spending, or timing effects. With net losses continuing and cash flow now negative, near-term funding flexibility and consistency of cash conversion are clear watch items.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.47B	1.50B	1.38B	1.21B	969.49M	559.97M
Gross Profit	388.17M	0.00	344.19M	296.38M	250.05M	159.92M
EBITDA	182.69M	73.94M	164.62M	116.93M	87.57M	65.08M
Net Income	-28.11M	-33.81M	-24.52M	-90.14M	-41.77M	-30.65M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.79B	3.86B	3.53B	3.50B	3.46B	2.88B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	89.72M	123.67M	148.12M	116.21M	118.09M	138.29M
Total Debt	1.72B	164.65M	1.64B	1.63B	1.47B	1.04B
Total Liabilities	2.67B	2.78B	2.53B	2.48B	2.32B	1.69B
Stockholders Equity	619.69M	600.22M	583.22M	560.41M	608.10M	608.38M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-64.57M	-68.94M	61.10M	23.27M	-24.44M	34.81M
Operating Cash Flow	-23.24M	-29.42M	102.15M	44.64M	-2.46M	40.13M
Investing Cash Flow	-141.89M	-140.28M	13.30M	-21.92M	-414.36M	-678.47M
Financing Cash Flow	146.36M	203.82M	-29.64M	-26.23M	419.55M	724.06M

Baldwin Insurance Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 16.94
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BWIN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 16.94 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.47, below the 50-day MA of 22.39, and below the 200-day MA of 30.19, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.92 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 31.41 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 42.01 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BWIN.

Baldwin Insurance Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TWFG	72 Outperform	$957.65M	40.55	8.79%	―	18.54%	-67.02%
CRVL	71 Outperform	$2.57B	24.85	32.63%	―	10.43%	29.22%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
CRD.B	67 Neutral	$500.10M	14.88	18.72%	2.47%	4.39%	61.61%
CRD.A	67 Neutral	$500.10M	16.01	18.72%	2.47%	4.39%	61.61%
SLQT	55 Neutral	$155.54M	-14.07	16.44%	―	13.16%	―
BWIN	48 Neutral	$2.37B	-39.43	-4.63%	―	10.69%	32.74%

Baldwin Insurance Group Corporate Events

Baldwin Insurance Group Closes Major Cobbs Allen Acquisition

On the closing date of a previously announced transaction, Baldwin Insurance Group completed a complex acquisition of Cobbs Allen Capital Holdings and related entities, including all equity interests in CACH Acquisition and CAC Group Life and a 60.19% stake in CAC Holdings, for total upfront consideration of $438 million in cash and 23.2 million Class A shares, plus up to $250 million in contingent payments and an additional $70 million in deferred cash due on the fourth anniversary. In connection with this and other pending acquisitions disclosed earlier in December 2025, the company issued a further 23,951,021 Class A shares in private, exempt offerings to accredited investors, entered into a long-term voting agreement with key sellers, and appointed Cobbs Allen co‑founder Paul Sparks to its board as a Class III director, moves that deepen its insurance and financial services capabilities while giving seller stakeholders meaningful governance influence over at least the medium term.

The most recent analyst rating on (BWIN) stock is a Hold with a $25.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Baldwin Insurance Group stock, see the BWIN Stock Forecast page.

Baldwin Insurance Group Announces Merger with CAC Group

On December 2, 2025, Baldwin Insurance Group announced a merger with CAC Group, a specialty and middle-market insurance brokerage firm, to create one of the largest independent insurance advisory platforms in the U.S. The merger, expected to close in the first quarter of 2026, aims to enhance Baldwin’s specialty capabilities and expand its market reach, positioning the combined entity as the largest majority colleague-owned, publicly-traded insurance broker in the country. The transaction involves a total upfront consideration of $1.026 billion and is anticipated to be accretive to Baldwin’s 2025 Adjusted EPS by over 20%. The merger is set to leverage Baldwin’s reinsurance and MGA operations, while integrating CAC’s industry-leading data and analytics platform, thereby creating new opportunities for clients and colleagues.

The most recent analyst rating on (BWIN) stock is a Sell with a $24.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Baldwin Insurance Group stock, see the BWIN Stock Forecast page.