Baldwin Insurance Group (BWIN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.71B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 956.34K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.81
• Revenue Growth: 11.43%
• EPS Growth: 64.61%
• Country: US
• Employees: 4,000
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 77
• Industry: Insurance - Brokers
• EPS (TTM): 0.42
• Shares Outstanding: 71,314,980
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 720,194
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 956,338
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.25
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.22
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 12.10
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 24.66
• 1Y Price Target: $37.50
• Price Target Upside: 17.74% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6

• Rating: 45 Neutral
• Price Target: $33.00 ▲(3.61% Upside)

Baldwin Insurance Group's overall stock score reflects significant challenges in financial performance and valuation, with technical indicators pointing to a bearish trend. While the earnings call provided some positive insights into growth and strategic initiatives, the company's profitability issues and reduced guidance weigh heavily on the score.

Positive Factors

Market Strategy

The tech-enabled go-to-market strategy of Baldwin is expected to drive higher levels of growth.

Partnerships

BWIN recently entered a partnership with MultiStrat, a reinsurance-based MGA platform which is expected to provide an alternative source of capital for BWIN’s ceded clients.

Personal Lines Growth

Baldwin's differentiated personal lines platform should enable double-digit organic growth over the long term.

Negative Factors

Macroeconomic Challenges

Management highlighted tougher macro and pricing environment in the middle market brokerage segment, with pricing being a real headwind in property-heavy sectors.

Revenue Growth Challenges

The company’s near-term challenge of switching to the reciprocal exchange should continue to be a drag on consolidated organic growth and adjusted EPS through the first half of 2026 before potentially becoming a tailwind in the second half.

Revenue Headwinds

Several factors—including deteriorating property rate/exposure trends, a procedural change in the timing of IAS revenue recognition, elevated churn for Medicare renewals, and competitive pressure for E&S homeowners—are expected to create a roughly 6% organic headwind in the second half.

Baldwin Insurance Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. operates as an independent insurance distribution firm that delivers insurance and risk management solutions in the United States. It operates through three segments: Insurance Advisory Solutions; Underwriting, Capacity & Technology Solutions; and Mainstreet Insurance Solutions. The Insurance Advisory Solutions segment provides commercial risk management, employee benefits, and private risk management solutions for businesses and high-net-worth individuals, as well as their families. The Underwriting, Capacity & Technology Solutions segment offers Future platform, that manufactures technology-enabled insurance products suite comprises personal, commercial, and specialty lines; specialty wholesale broker business that delivers professionals, individuals, and niche industry businesses; and reinsurance brokerage services. The Mainstreet Insurance Solutions segment provides personal insurance, commercial insurance, and life and health solutions to individuals and businesses in communities. The company was formerly known as BRP Group, Inc. and changed its name to The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. in May 2024. The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in Tampa, Florida.

How the Company Makes Money

Baldwin Insurance Group generates revenue through various channels within the insurance industry. The primary revenue stream comes from commissions earned on insurance policies sold to clients, which typically range from 5% to 20% of the policy premium, depending on the type of insurance. Additionally, BWIN may charge fees for consulting services, risk assessments, and policy management. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships with leading insurance carriers, which can enhance its product offerings and competitive positioning in the market. Furthermore, BWIN may engage in cross-selling opportunities, increasing the lifetime value of its clients by providing multiple insurance products, thereby boosting overall revenue.

Baldwin Insurance Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Baldwin Insurance Group faces challenges in profitability and cash flow, despite some revenue growth and improved leverage. The company needs to address operational inefficiencies and enhance cash flow generation to improve its financial health.

Income Statement

Baldwin Insurance Group shows modest revenue growth with a TTM increase of 2.45%. However, the company struggles with profitability, as indicated by a negative net profit margin of -1.23% in the TTM. The gross profit margin has declined from previous years, reflecting increased cost pressures. EBIT and EBITDA margins are relatively low, suggesting operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has improved significantly in the TTM, indicating better leverage management. However, the return on equity remains negative, highlighting ongoing profitability issues. The equity ratio is stable, suggesting a solid asset base relative to equity.

Cash Flow

Cash flow performance is weak, with negative operating and free cash flows in the TTM. Despite a significant increase in free cash flow growth, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating cash flow challenges. The free cash flow to net income ratio is positive, suggesting some ability to cover net losses with free cash flow.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.44B	1.38B	1.22B	980.72M	567.29M	240.92M
Gross Profit	383.78M	344.19M	334.21M	174.92M	115.73M	46.64M
EBITDA	188.36M	164.62M	115.26M	88.82M	65.08M	18.75M
Net Income	-17.76M	-24.52M	-90.14M	-76.03M	-58.10M	-29.89M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.74B	3.53B	3.50B	24.08M	82.54M	4.00M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	105.69M	148.12M	116.21M	230.47M	227.74M	142.02M
Total Debt	1.70B	1.64B	1.63B	12.49M	17.50M	5.34M
Total Liabilities	2.69B	2.53B	2.48B	619.00K	592.00K	455.00K
Stockholders Equity	630.80M	583.22M	560.41M	3.46B	2.88B	1.53B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-104.81M	61.10M	23.27M	-24.44M	34.81M	31.35M
Operating Cash Flow	-62.15M	102.15M	44.64M	-2.46M	40.13M	36.82M
Investing Cash Flow	-68.50M	13.30M	-21.92M	-414.36M	-678.47M	-677.79M
Financing Cash Flow	154.18M	-29.64M	-26.23M	419.55M	724.06M	711.92M

Baldwin Insurance Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 31.85
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BWIN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 31.85 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 32.47, below the 50-day MA of 36.91, and below the 200-day MA of 40.18, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.49 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 37.64 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.06 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BWIN.

Baldwin Insurance Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ACT	84 Outperform	$5.66B	8.72	13.47%	2.05%	3.15%	5.70%
THG	79 Outperform	$6.49B	11.94	19.23%	2.00%	4.47%	102.98%
SIGI	75 Outperform	$4.93B	12.97	12.19%	1.90%	12.27%	66.53%
WTM	69 Neutral	$4.64B	22.37	4.47%	0.06%	8.08%	-57.76%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.06B	11.97	10.24%	3.74%	9.75%	1.30%
JXN	63 Neutral	$6.84B	82.50	0.30%	3.14%	27.18%	-100.02%
BWIN	45 Neutral	$3.71B	―	-2.91%	―	11.43%	64.61%

Baldwin Insurance Group Corporate Events

Baldwin Insurance Group’s Shareholders Approve Key Proposals

On June 5, 2025, Baldwin Insurance Group held its Annual Meeting of Shareholders where three key proposals were voted upon. The shareholders elected three Class III Directors to the Board, approved the executive compensation on a non-binding advisory basis, and ratified the appointment of PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025. These decisions are expected to influence the company’s governance and financial oversight positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (BWIN) stock is a Sell with a $34.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Baldwin Insurance Group stock, see the BWIN Stock Forecast page.