Baldwin Insurance Group (BWIN)
NASDAQ:BWIN
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Baldwin Insurance Group
(NASDAQ:BWIN)
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Rating:44Neutral
Price Target:
$19.50
▼(-22.12% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial quality (ongoing losses, high leverage, and pressured free cash flow) and bearish technicals. Valuation is also challenging given the very high P/E and no dividend support. These are only partially offset by a more constructive earnings-call outlook with reaffirmed guidance, strong adjusted EBITDA growth, and synergy/productivity execution.
Positive Factors
Sustained Revenue Scale
The business has materially scaled top line through diversified brokerage and advisory channels, creating durable recurring commission and fee revenue. Size supports carrier access, negotiating leverage, and cross-sell opportunities that underpin multi‑period growth and resilience in commissions.
Negative Factors
High Net Leverage
Elevated net leverage restricts financial flexibility, making debt service and opportunistic M&A more costly. Sustained high leverage increases refinancing risk and limits ability to fund organic investments or weather underwriting cycles without dilutive or restrictive capital actions.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Sustained Revenue Scale
The business has materially scaled top line through diversified brokerage and advisory channels, creating durable recurring commission and fee revenue. Size supports carrier access, negotiating leverage, and cross-sell opportunities that underpin multi‑period growth and resilience in commissions.
Read all positive factors
Baldwin Insurance Group (BWIN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.98B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)829.71K
Price to Earnings (P/E)161.8
Beta (1Y)0.69
Revenue Growth14.18%
EPS Growth-31.38%
CountryUS
Employees4,000
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Brokers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.67
Shares Outstanding97,489,950
10 Day Avg. Volume895,905
30 Day Avg. Volume829,711
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.71
Price to Book (P/B)2.72
Price to Sales (P/S)1.08
P/FCF Ratio-23.68
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.31
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.42
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit13.97
Enterprise Value/Ebitda58.00
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$30.00Price Target Upside19.81% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)2.01
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.01B
Baldwin Insurance Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. operates as an independent insurance distribution firm that delivers insurance and risk management solutions in the United States. It operates through three segments: Insurance Advisory Solutions; Underwriting, Ca...
How the Company Makes Money
Baldwin Insurance Group primarily makes money through insurance brokerage commissions and fees earned for placing and servicing insurance policies on behalf of clients. Key revenue streams typically include: (1) Commissions from insurance carriers...
Baldwin Insurance Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 04, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a mix of meaningful operational and financial positives — including strong adjusted EBITDA growth (+21%), rapid synergy capture at CAC (~$34M realized), robust specialty business growth (Juniper Re +90%, multifamily +10%), and promising AI-driven productivity gains — alongside near-term headwinds: modest reported organic revenue (2%), MIS softness, a sharp decline in E&S homeowners (~30% in Q1), margin compression (~170 bps), a Q1 working capital cash drag, and elevated leverage (~4.3x). Management emphasized that many headwinds are transitory (QBE builder transition lapped May 1, Medicare disruption expected to abate next quarter, IAS accounting procedural items normalize), reaffirmed guidance, and highlighted momentum from partnerships and Catalyst/AI initiatives. Overall the balance of positive execution items and forward-looking operational levers modestly outweighs the short-term challenges.Positive Updates
Solid Top-Line and Adjusted Profitability
Total revenue of $532.2 million in Q1 2026; adjusted EBITDA of $137.2 million, up 21% year-over-year (from $113.8M); adjusted EBITDA margin of 25.8%; adjusted net income of $89.3 million and adjusted diluted EPS of $0.63.
Negative Updates
Modest Reported Organic Revenue Growth
Total organic revenue growth was 2% in Q1 2026 (commission and fee organic growth 3%). Management noted that after normalizing for transitory items organic growth would have been 5% and 9% including March partnerships, but the headline 2% is modest.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Solid Top-Line and Adjusted Profitability
Total revenue of $532.2 million in Q1 2026; adjusted EBITDA of $137.2 million, up 21% year-over-year (from $113.8M); adjusted EBITDA margin of 25.8%; adjusted net income of $89.3 million and adjusted diluted EPS of $0.63.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company reaffirmed full-year guidance and gave Q2 targets of revenue $485–490M, organic revenue growth in the mid-single digits, adjusted EBITDA $113–118M, and adjusted diluted EPS $0.44–0.48; management also reiterated full‑year expectations for double‑digit adjusted free‑cash‑flow growth and said full‑year rate/exposure should be a 100–200 bps headwind (with a sharper 400–500 bps hit expected in Q2 due to heavy property renewals). For Q1 they reported total revenue $532.2M, adjusted EBITDA $137.2M (up 21%) with a 25.8% adjusted EBITDA margin (down ~170 bps), adjusted net income $89.3M or $0.63 per share, GAAP net loss $1.9M (GAAP diluted EPS $0.20), and adjusted free cash flow roughly flat to $26M; balance sheet and capital actions included net leverage of ~4.3x, deployment of ~$50M of a $250M buyback to repurchase 2.2M shares, a ~$145M tax benefit and ~$130M TRA liability (both excluded from adjusted metrics), and an expectation that leverage will hover around 4.0–4.5x while organic growth accelerates through the year (UCTS to high‑single digits in Q2 and into the teens late in the year; legacy IAS roughly flat in Q2 then mid‑to‑high single digits back half).Baldwin Insurance Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
46
Neutral
Balance Sheet
40
Negative
Cash Flow
44
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.62B | 1.50B | 1.38B | 1.21B | 969.49M | 559.97M |
| Gross Profit | 280.03M | 191.98M | 344.19M | 296.38M | 250.05M | 159.92M |
| EBITDA | 67.47M | 196.83M | 164.62M | 116.93M | 87.57M | 65.08M |
| Net Income | -45.41M | -33.81M | -24.52M | -90.14M | -41.77M | -30.65M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 5.94B | 3.86B | 3.53B | 3.50B | 3.46B | 2.88B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 146.41M | 123.67M | 148.12M | 116.21M | 118.09M | 138.29M |
| Total Debt | 2.57B | 1.77B | 1.64B | 1.63B | 1.47B | 1.04B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.39B | 2.78B | 2.53B | 2.48B | 2.32B | 1.69B |
| Stockholders Equity | 963.94M | 600.22M | 583.22M | 560.41M | 608.10M | 608.38M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -14.77M | -68.94M | 61.10M | 23.27M | -24.44M | 34.81M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 28.49M | -29.42M | 102.15M | 44.64M | -2.46M | 40.13M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -622.87M | -140.28M | 13.30M | -21.92M | -414.36M | -678.47M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 751.44M | 203.82M | -29.64M | -26.23M | 419.55M | 724.06M |
Baldwin Insurance Group Technical Analysis
Negative
25.04
Price Trends
22.04
Negative
22.06
Negative
25.04
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.76
Positive
37.76
Neutral
27.32
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BWIN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 25.04 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 21.90, above the 50-day MA of 22.04, and above the 200-day MA of 25.04, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.76 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.76 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 27.32 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BWIN.
Baldwin Insurance Group Risk Analysis
Baldwin Insurance Group disclosed 61 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Baldwin Insurance Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Baldwin Insurance Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $1.03B | 38.71 | 10.80% | ― | 24.76% | -27.04% | |
71 Outperform | $3.02B | 35.99 | 30.14% | ― | 8.06% | 19.97% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
65 Neutral | $186.93M | 0.73 | 15.28% | ― | 10.29% | ― | |
55 Neutral | $483.24M | 24.77 | 10.01% | 2.47% | -3.23% | -41.71% | |
53 Neutral | $483.24M | 24.77 | 10.01% | 2.47% | -3.23% | -41.71% | |
44 Neutral | $2.98B | 161.79 | -6.45% | ― | 14.18% | -31.38% |
* Financial Sector Average
BWIN
Baldwin Insurance Group
19.86
-18.78
-48.60%
CRVL
CorVel
58.82
-54.85
-48.25%
CRD.A
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10.05
-1.10
-9.89%
CRD.B
Crawford & Company B
9.48
-0.96
-9.23%
SLQT
SelectQuote
1.03
-1.24
-54.63%
TWFG
TWFG, Inc. Class A
18.84
-16.49
-46.67%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.