Baldwin Insurance Group (BWIN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.83B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 727.62K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.80
• Revenue Growth: 11.43%
• EPS Growth: 64.61%
• Country: US
• Employees: 4,000
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 69
• Industry: Insurance - Brokers
• EPS (TTM): 0.42
• Shares Outstanding: 71,314,980
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,022,777
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 727,615
• PEG Ratio: 1.36
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.22
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.79
• P/FCF Ratio: 40.25
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.21
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.21
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 16.68
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 28.56
• 1Y Price Target: $37.50
• Price Target Upside: 16.21% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6

• Rating: 42 Neutral
• Price Target: $35.00 ▲(8.46% Upside)

The overall stock score is primarily impacted by the company's weak financial performance, characterized by consistent net losses and high leverage. Technical analysis further supports a bearish outlook with oversold indicators. While the earnings call provided some positive insights into revenue growth, the challenges in profitability and guidance revisions weigh heavily on the stock's prospects.

Positive Factors

New Business Performance

Sales velocity increased to 22% in 2Q25 compared with 14% in 1Q25, which represents top decile new business performance in the industry.

Partnerships and Collaborations

BWIN recently entered a partnership with MultiStrat, a reinsurance-based MGA platform which is expected to provide an alternative source of capital for BWIN’s ceded clients.

Negative Factors

Macro Environment Challenges

Management highlighted a tougher macro and pricing environment in the middle market brokerage segment, with pricing being a real headwind in property-heavy sectors.

Revenue Growth Deceleration

Second-half organic growth is expected to decelerate to roughly 6% from the previous estimate of 11.5%.

Baldwin Insurance Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. operates as an independent insurance distribution firm that delivers insurance and risk management solutions in the United States. It operates through three segments: Insurance Advisory Solutions; Underwriting, Capacity & Technology Solutions; and Mainstreet Insurance Solutions. The Insurance Advisory Solutions segment provides commercial risk management, employee benefits, and private risk management solutions for businesses and high-net-worth individuals, as well as their families. The Underwriting, Capacity & Technology Solutions segment offers Future platform, that manufactures technology-enabled insurance products suite comprises personal, commercial, and specialty lines; specialty wholesale broker business that delivers professionals, individuals, and niche industry businesses; and reinsurance brokerage services. The Mainstreet Insurance Solutions segment provides personal insurance, commercial insurance, and life and health solutions to individuals and businesses in communities. The company was formerly known as BRP Group, Inc. and changed its name to The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. in May 2024. The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in Tampa, Florida.

How the Company Makes Money

BWIN makes money primarily through the collection of insurance premiums from policyholders. These premiums are calculated based on the risk profile of the insured individual or entity and the coverage provided. The company also earns revenue through investment income generated from the funds it holds in reserves, which are often invested in a diversified portfolio of stocks, bonds, and other financial instruments. Additionally, BWIN may receive income from reinsurance agreements, where it shares risks with other insurance companies. Strategic partnerships with financial institutions and affinity groups further enhance its distribution channels and contribute to its revenue streams.

Baldwin Insurance Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Baldwin Insurance Group demonstrates strong revenue growth but struggles with profitability, as indicated by consistent net losses. The high debt-to-equity ratio and declining equity ratio highlight financial stability issues. Cash flow performance is weak, with negative free cash flow posing liquidity risks. While the company shows potential in revenue expansion, addressing profitability and leverage challenges is crucial for financial health.

Income Statement

The revenue has shown a solid growth trajectory, increasing from $567.3M in 2021 to $1.4B in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) 2025. However, the company consistently reports net losses, with a negative net profit margin of -2.28% in TTM 2025. Gross profit margin remains stable around 24.65% in TTM 2025. Despite growth in EBIT and EBITDA margins to 6.24% and 13.03% respectively, the persistence of net losses is concerning.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet shows high leverage, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.64 in TTM 2025, indicating significant reliance on debt. The equity ratio has decreased to 17.45%, reflecting a decline in the company's equity base relative to its assets. While the total assets have grown, the shrinking stockholders' equity and high debt levels pose risks.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow decreased to $35.27M in TTM 2025 from $102.15M in 2024. Free cash flow turned negative in TTM 2025, primarily due to increased capital expenditures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is not favorable, indicating inefficiencies in converting net income into cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is negative due to consistent net losses.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.45B	1.38B	1.22B	980.72M	567.29M	240.92M
Gross Profit	278.52M	344.19M	334.21M	174.92M	115.73M	46.64M
EBITDA	162.66M	164.62M	115.26M	88.82M	65.08M	18.75M
Net Income	-17.76M	-24.52M	-90.14M	-76.03M	-58.10M	-29.89M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.74B	3.53B	3.50B	24.08M	82.54M	4.00M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	105.69M	148.12M	116.21M	230.47M	227.74M	142.02M
Total Debt	176.38M	1.64B	1.63B	12.49M	17.50M	5.34M
Total Liabilities	2.69B	2.53B	2.48B	619.00K	592.00K	455.00K
Stockholders Equity	630.80M	583.22M	560.41M	3.46B	2.88B	1.53B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-104.81M	61.10M	23.27M	-24.44M	34.81M	31.35M
Operating Cash Flow	-62.15M	102.15M	44.64M	-2.46M	40.13M	36.82M
Investing Cash Flow	-68.50M	13.30M	-21.92M	-414.36M	-678.47M	-677.79M
Financing Cash Flow	154.18M	-29.64M	-26.23M	419.55M	724.06M	711.92M

Baldwin Insurance Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 32.27
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BWIN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 32.27 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 38.27, below the 50-day MA of 39.37, and below the 200-day MA of 41.55, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.20 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 32.19 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.12 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BWIN.

Baldwin Insurance Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
THG	81 Outperform	$6.04B	11.12	19.23%	2.10%	4.47%	102.98%
ACT	78 Outperform	$5.48B	8.43	13.47%	2.06%	3.15%	5.70%
SIGI	70 Outperform	$4.76B	12.79	12.19%	1.91%	12.27%	66.53%
JXN	69 Neutral	$6.31B	82.50	0.30%	3.31%	3.55%	8.91%
Sector *	67 Neutral	$17.03B	11.60	9.79%	3.95%	10.64%	1.89%
WTM	65 Neutral	$4.51B	21.76	4.47%	0.06%	-4.09%	-94.77%
BWIN	42 Neutral	$3.83B	―	-2.91%	―	11.43%	64.61%

Baldwin Insurance Group Corporate Events

Baldwin Insurance Group’s Shareholders Approve Key Proposals

On June 5, 2025, Baldwin Insurance Group held its Annual Meeting of Shareholders where three key proposals were voted upon. The shareholders elected three Class III Directors to the Board, approved the executive compensation on a non-binding advisory basis, and ratified the appointment of PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025. These decisions are expected to influence the company’s governance and financial oversight positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (BWIN) stock is a Sell with a $34.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Baldwin Insurance Group stock, see the BWIN Stock Forecast page.