Baldwin Insurance Group (BWIN)
NASDAQ:BWIN
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Baldwin Insurance Group
(NASDAQ:BWIN)
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Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
$20.50
▼(-9.93% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/28/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial quality (ongoing GAAP losses and newly negative operating/free cash flow) and bearish-to-neutral technicals. This is partially offset by a more constructive forward outlook from the earnings call, including 2026 guidance for growth, margin expansion, and synergy-driven EBITDA, plus a share repurchase authorization.
Positive Factors
Balance-sheet de-risking
A sharp reduction in debt-to-equity materially lowers financial risk and interest burden, improving funding flexibility for integration, capex, or opportunistic buybacks. This de‑risking supports multi‑quarter execution of synergies and reduces refinancing sensitivity over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Persistent GAAP losses
Ongoing GAAP losses indicate the company has not converted scale into reported profitability. Persistent below‑the‑line charges, integration costs, or amortization can limit retained earnings, constrain equity returns, and make sustained capital allocation choices more difficult over coming quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Balance-sheet de-risking
A sharp reduction in debt-to-equity materially lowers financial risk and interest burden, improving funding flexibility for integration, capex, or opportunistic buybacks. This de‑risking supports multi‑quarter execution of synergies and reduces refinancing sensitivity over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Baldwin Insurance Group (BWIN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.25B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)829.71K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.65
Revenue Growth10.69%
EPS Growth32.74%
CountryUS
Employees4,000
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Brokers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.31
Shares Outstanding96,721,070
10 Day Avg. Volume895,905
30 Day Avg. Volume829,711
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.71
Price to Book (P/B)2.72
Price to Sales (P/S)1.08
P/FCF Ratio-23.68
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.98
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.14
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.95
Enterprise Value/Ebitda15.24
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$31.00Price Target Upside36.20% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)2.01
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.00B
Baldwin Insurance Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. operates as an independent insurance distribution firm that delivers insurance and risk management solutions in the United States. It operates through three segments: Insurance Advisory Solutions; Underwriting, Ca...
How the Company Makes Money
Baldwin Insurance Group primarily makes money through insurance brokerage commissions and fees earned for placing and servicing insurance policies on behalf of clients. Key revenue streams typically include: (1) Commissions from insurance carriers...
Baldwin Insurance Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a predominantly positive operational and strategic picture: strong adjusted profitability, margin expansion, high-growth pockets (UCTS, embedded channels, renters), clear digital transformation initiatives, and early, ahead-of-schedule synergy execution on recent partnerships. At the same time, the company faces material near-term headwinds—timing and accounting impacts, Medicare disruption, QBE transition, a sizable rate/exposure swing in IAS, GAAP losses, and partnership-related incremental costs—that depressed reported organic growth and free cash flow in 2025 and extend some pressure into early 2026. Management provided constructive 2026 guidance, a focused integration and automation plan (Catalyst), and capital actions (term loan, $250M repurchase authorization) to address value realization and shareholder returns. Taken together, the operational positives and forward-looking actions outweigh the temporary headwinds and one-time items, supporting a constructive outlook but with near-term execution and deleveraging tasks to prove.Positive Updates
Full-Year Organic Growth and Profitability
2025 full-year core commission & fee organic revenue growth of 8% and total organic revenue growth of 7%; adjusted EBITDA grew 9% for the year with a 20 basis point expansion in adjusted EBITDA margin; adjusted diluted EPS grew 11% for the full year.
Negative Updates
Q4 Organic Growth and Idiosyncratic Headwinds
Fourth quarter organic revenue growth of 3% (core commissions & fees 5%) was below historical performance; Main Street total organic growth was negative 4% in Q4 and IAS total organic growth was negative 2% in Q4, driven by timing and market-specific pressures.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Full-Year Organic Growth and Profitability
2025 full-year core commission & fee organic revenue growth of 8% and total organic revenue growth of 7%; adjusted EBITDA grew 9% for the year with a 20 basis point expansion in adjusted EBITDA margin; adjusted diluted EPS grew 11% for the full year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For 2026 the Baldwin Group guided full‑year revenue of $2.01–$2.05 billion, organic growth of mid‑single digits or higher (ramping to double‑digit organic growth by Q4 as they lap QBE and IAS timing impacts), adjusted EBITDA of $460–$480 million (implying margin expansion of 20–70 bps), adjusted diluted EPS of $2.00–$2.10, and double‑digit adjusted free cash flow growth before one‑time transformation/integration costs; they also expect $3–$5 million of 2026 Catalyst savings and disclosed the CAC/OBE/Capstone cohort should deliver roughly $400 million of 2026 revenue and approximately $110 million of adjusted EBITDA post‑synergies. For Q1 they forecast revenue of $520–$530 million, organic growth in the low‑single digits, adjusted EBITDA of $130–$140 million and adjusted diluted EPS of $0.61–$0.65; management also announced a $250 million share repurchase authorization (not modeled into guidance) and reiterated a long‑term leverage target of 3–4x (Q4 net leverage was 4.1x).Baldwin Insurance Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
46
Neutral
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
38
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.50B | 1.38B | 1.21B | 969.49M | 559.97M |
| Gross Profit | 191.98M | 344.19M | 296.38M | 250.05M | 159.92M |
| EBITDA | 196.83M | 164.62M | 116.93M | 87.57M | 65.08M |
| Net Income | -33.81M | -24.52M | -90.14M | -41.77M | -30.65M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 3.86B | 3.53B | 3.50B | 3.46B | 2.88B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 123.67M | 148.12M | 116.21M | 118.09M | 138.29M |
| Total Debt | 1.77B | 1.64B | 1.63B | 1.47B | 1.04B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.78B | 2.53B | 2.48B | 2.32B | 1.69B |
| Stockholders Equity | 600.22M | 583.22M | 560.41M | 608.10M | 608.38M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -68.94M | 61.10M | 23.27M | -24.44M | 34.81M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -29.42M | 102.15M | 44.64M | -2.46M | 40.13M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -140.28M | 13.30M | -21.92M | -414.36M | -678.47M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 203.82M | -29.64M | -26.23M | 419.55M | 724.06M |
Baldwin Insurance Group Technical Analysis
Positive
22.76
Price Trends
20.36
Positive
22.96
Negative
27.69
Negative
Market Momentum
0.40
Negative
58.77
Neutral
64.27
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BWIN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 22.76 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 21.56, above the 50-day MA of 20.36, and below the 200-day MA of 27.69, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.40 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.77 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 64.27 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BWIN.
Baldwin Insurance Group Risk Analysis
Baldwin Insurance Group disclosed 61 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Baldwin Insurance Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Baldwin Insurance Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $2.74B | 35.99 | 30.14% | ― | 10.43% | 29.22% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
66 Neutral | $1.09B | 54.27 | 8.79% | ― | 18.54% | -67.02% | |
58 Neutral | $511.79M | 28.40 | 11.25% | 2.47% | 4.39% | 61.61% | |
58 Neutral | $115.05M | 0.95 | 13.52% | ― | 13.16% | ― | |
53 Neutral | $511.79M | 28.40 | 11.25% | 2.47% | 4.39% | 61.61% | |
50 Neutral | $3.25B | -48.28 | -4.63% | ― | 10.69% | 32.74% |
* Financial Sector Average
BWIN
Baldwin Insurance Group
22.76
-19.68
-46.37%
CRVL
CorVel
53.59
-61.97
-53.63%
CRD.A
Crawford & Company A
10.55
>-0.01
-0.09%
CRD.B
Crawford & Company B
10.46
0.34
3.33%
SLQT
SelectQuote
0.65
-2.82
-81.21%
TWFG
TWFG, Inc. Class A
19.40
-10.80
-35.76%
Baldwin Insurance Group Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Baldwin Insurance Group Closes Major Cobbs Allen Acquisition
Positive
Jan 2, 2026
On the closing date of a previously announced transaction, Baldwin Insurance Group completed a complex acquisition of Cobbs Allen Capital Holdings and related entities, including all equity interests in CACH Acquisition and CAC Group Life and a 60...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.