Baldwin Insurance Group (BWIN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.01B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 829.71K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.64
• Revenue Growth: 10.69%
• EPS Growth: 32.74%
• Country: US
• Employees: 4,000
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Insurance - Brokers
• EPS (TTM): 0.31
• Shares Outstanding: 96,721,070
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 895,905
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 829,711
• PEG Ratio: -1.71
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.72
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.08
• P/FCF Ratio: -23.68
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.02
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.06
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 8.62
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 14.69
• 1Y Price Target: $32.33
• Price Target Upside: 53.51% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.02
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $2.01B

• Rating: 50 Neutral
• Price Target: $20.50 ▼(-2.66% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/28/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/28/26

The score is held back primarily by weak financial quality (ongoing GAAP losses and newly negative operating/free cash flow) and bearish-to-neutral technicals. This is partially offset by a more constructive forward outlook from the earnings call, including 2026 guidance for growth, margin expansion, and synergy-driven EBITDA, plus a share repurchase authorization.

Positive Factors

Balance-sheet de-risking

A sharp reduction in debt-to-equity materially lowers financial risk and interest burden, improving funding flexibility for integration, capex, or opportunistic buybacks. This de‑risking supports multi‑quarter execution of synergies and reduces refinancing sensitivity over the next 2–6 months.

Embedded distribution scale (Westwood)

Deep builder embedding creates a structurally sticky, high-conversion distribution channel with recurring premium flows and lower acquisition costs. High escrow rates and strong builder relationships support durable renewal economics and predictable commission revenue over many quarters.

Digital platform driving retention and margins

Digital migration that meaningfully lifts retention and margins is a scalable structural advantage: higher lifetime value, lower servicing costs, and faster growth in small commercial. Sustained platform adoption supports margin expansion and cash conversion improvements over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Persistent GAAP losses

Ongoing GAAP losses indicate the company has not converted scale into reported profitability. Persistent below‑the‑line charges, integration costs, or amortization can limit retained earnings, constrain equity returns, and make sustained capital allocation choices more difficult over coming quarters.

Negative operating and free cash flow

A recent shift to negative OCF and FCF weakens funding flexibility and increases reliance on external financing for acquisitions and integration spending. This impairs the company’s ability to self‑fund deleveraging or larger buybacks until cash conversion normalizes.

Market/segment headwinds (Medicare, IAS, QBE timing)

Persistent Medicare disruption, IAS rate/exposure swings and the QBE transition create multi‑quarter revenue and margin pressure in key segments. These structural market dynamics can depress organic growth and delay full realization of partnership synergies into 2026 and beyond.

Baldwin Insurance Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. operates as an independent insurance distribution firm that delivers insurance and risk management solutions in the United States. It operates through three segments: Insurance Advisory Solutions; Underwriting, Capacity & Technology Solutions; and Mainstreet Insurance Solutions. The Insurance Advisory Solutions segment provides commercial risk management, employee benefits, and private risk management solutions for businesses and high-net-worth individuals, as well as their families. The Underwriting, Capacity & Technology Solutions segment offers Future platform, that manufactures technology-enabled insurance products suite comprises personal, commercial, and specialty lines; specialty wholesale broker business that delivers professionals, individuals, and niche industry businesses; and reinsurance brokerage services. The Mainstreet Insurance Solutions segment provides personal insurance, commercial insurance, and life and health solutions to individuals and businesses in communities. The company was formerly known as BRP Group, Inc. and changed its name to The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. in May 2024. The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in Tampa, Florida.

How the Company Makes Money

Baldwin Insurance Group primarily makes money through insurance brokerage commissions and fees earned for placing and servicing insurance policies on behalf of clients. Key revenue streams typically include: (1) Commissions from insurance carriers: when BWIN places a policy with a carrier (e.g., property & casualty, employee benefits, or other specialty coverages), it earns a percentage of the premium as commission; renewals can generate recurring commission revenue as policies are renewed annually. (2) Brokerage and advisory/service fees: BWIN may charge clients fees for risk advisory, program administration, consulting, and policy servicing work, depending on the engagement and client segment. (3) Contingent or performance-based compensation: some brokers receive additional compensation from carriers based on factors such as total premium volume, growth, retention, or profitability of the business placed; availability and magnitude depend on carrier agreements and regulatory constraints. (4) Other/ancillary revenue: depending on the company’s operating model, this can include revenue related to managing specialty insurance programs, administering benefits platforms, or providing outsourced insurance-related services; specific product lines and materiality are not available here. The company’s earnings are influenced by premium volumes (which can rise with client growth and insurance rate increases), client retention/renewal rates, mix of higher-commission specialty lines, and the breadth of its carrier partnerships that enable it to quote and place coverage across multiple markets.

Baldwin Insurance Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong revenue scaling, but profitability is still the key issue with recurring GAAP net losses. The balance sheet shows a meaningful improvement in leverage in the latest period, but the latest year’s negative operating cash flow and free cash flow weaken financial quality and funding flexibility.

Income Statement

Revenue growth has been strong over the period (including triple‑digit growth in 2025 vs. 2024), showing continued scale-up. Profitability, however, remains the key weakness: net income is negative every year shown, and the latest year posts a negative net margin despite positive EBITDA margin. The combination of rapid top-line expansion with persistent bottom-line losses suggests cost pressure, integration/operating inefficiency, or other below-the-line drag that has not yet been resolved.

Balance Sheet

Leverage appears materially improved in the latest year, with debt-to-equity dropping to ~0.27 versus ~2.4–2.9 in prior years, which is a meaningful de-risking signal if sustainable. Equity is positive and has held in a relatively steady range, supporting balance-sheet stability. The main concern is continued negative returns on equity across all periods, indicating the company has not been converting its capital base into profits yet, even with the improved leverage profile.

Cash Flow

Cash generation turned weaker in the latest year: operating cash flow and free cash flow are both negative, reversing the positive profile seen in most prior years. While free cash flow has often been positive historically, the recent cash outflow raises questions around working capital needs, acquisition/integration spending, or timing effects. With net losses continuing and cash flow now negative, near-term funding flexibility and consistency of cash conversion are clear watch items.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.50B	1.38B	1.21B	969.49M	559.97M
Gross Profit	191.98M	344.19M	296.38M	250.05M	159.92M
EBITDA	196.83M	164.62M	116.93M	87.57M	65.08M
Net Income	-33.81M	-24.52M	-90.14M	-41.77M	-30.65M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.86B	3.53B	3.50B	3.46B	2.88B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	123.67M	148.12M	116.21M	118.09M	138.29M
Total Debt	1.77B	1.64B	1.63B	1.47B	1.04B
Total Liabilities	2.78B	2.53B	2.48B	2.32B	1.69B
Stockholders Equity	600.22M	583.22M	560.41M	608.10M	608.38M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-68.94M	61.10M	23.27M	-24.44M	34.81M
Operating Cash Flow	-29.42M	102.15M	44.64M	-2.46M	40.13M
Investing Cash Flow	-140.28M	13.30M	-21.92M	-414.36M	-678.47M
Financing Cash Flow	203.82M	-29.64M	-26.23M	419.55M	724.06M

Baldwin Insurance Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 21.06
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BWIN, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 21.06 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.48, below the 50-day MA of 21.69, and below the 200-day MA of 29.15, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.13 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.03 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 37.02 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for BWIN.

Baldwin Insurance Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CRVL	71 Outperform	$2.69B	35.99	32.63%	―	10.43%	29.22%
TWFG	69 Neutral	$1.11B	40.69	8.79%	―	18.54%	-67.02%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
CRD.A	58 Neutral	$462.07M	28.40	11.25%	2.47%	4.39%	61.61%
CRD.B	56 Neutral	$462.07M	28.40	11.25%	2.47%	4.39%	61.61%
SLQT	56 Neutral	$114.62M	0.95	13.52%	―	13.16%	―
BWIN	50 Neutral	$3.01B	-48.28	-4.63%	―	10.69%	32.74%

Baldwin Insurance Group Corporate Events

Baldwin Insurance Group Closes Major Cobbs Allen Acquisition

On the closing date of a previously announced transaction, Baldwin Insurance Group completed a complex acquisition of Cobbs Allen Capital Holdings and related entities, including all equity interests in CACH Acquisition and CAC Group Life and a 60.19% stake in CAC Holdings, for total upfront consideration of $438 million in cash and 23.2 million Class A shares, plus up to $250 million in contingent payments and an additional $70 million in deferred cash due on the fourth anniversary. In connection with this and other pending acquisitions disclosed earlier in December 2025, the company issued a further 23,951,021 Class A shares in private, exempt offerings to accredited investors, entered into a long-term voting agreement with key sellers, and appointed Cobbs Allen co‑founder Paul Sparks to its board as a Class III director, moves that deepen its insurance and financial services capabilities while giving seller stakeholders meaningful governance influence over at least the medium term.

The most recent analyst rating on (BWIN) stock is a Hold with a $25.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Baldwin Insurance Group stock, see the BWIN Stock Forecast page.