Aperam SA (APEMY)
OTHER OTC:APEMY
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Aperam SA
(OTC:APEMY)
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
$56.00
▲(35.43% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/03/26
The score is held back primarily by weak profitability and compressed returns alongside a very high P/E, partially offset by solid cash generation, manageable leverage, and strong price trend/momentum. Earnings call guidance supports a recovery path, but near-term demand and policy/timing uncertainty remain meaningful risks.
Positive Factors
Strong Cash Generation
Consistent trailing‑12‑month operating cash flow and substantial free cash flow provide durable financial flexibility for a cyclical steel firm. This cash generation supports ongoing CapEx, the Leadership Journey investments, potential deleveraging and cushions earnings volatility across cycles.
Negative Factors
Compressed Profitability
Very low trailing margins and a sharp revenue contraction weaken the company’s earnings power and buffer for cyclical downturns. Persistently compressed profitability (TTM net ~0.5%) and low ROE constrain internal reinvestment capacity and lengthen the time needed for returns to normalize even if volumes improve.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong Cash Generation
Consistent trailing‑12‑month operating cash flow and substantial free cash flow provide durable financial flexibility for a cyclical steel firm. This cash generation supports ongoing CapEx, the Leadership Journey investments, potential deleveraging and cushions earnings volatility across cycles.
Read all positive factors
Aperam SA (APEMY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.93B
Dividend Yield5.12%
Average Volume (3M)41.00
Price to Earnings (P/E)197.1
Beta (1Y)1.10
Revenue Growth3.46%
EPS Growth-86.52%
CountryUS
Employees12,007
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustrySteel
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.36
Shares Outstanding78,036,690
10 Day Avg. Volume0
30 Day Avg. Volume41
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-2.98
Price to Book (P/B)0.81
Price to Sales (P/S)0.42
P/FCF Ratio9.42
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.16
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.76
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.76
Enterprise Value/Ebitda13.87
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)2.33
Revenue Forecast (FY)$7.85B
Aperam SA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Aperam S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of stainless and specialty steel products worldwide. It operates through three segments: Stainless & Electrical Steel; Services & Solutions; and Alloys & Specialties. ...
How the Company Makes Money
Aperam makes money primarily by manufacturing and selling stainless steel and specialty steel products. Its core revenue stream is product sales (typically priced per tonne), where realized revenue depends on shipment volumes, product mix (e.g., s...
Aperam SA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 06, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a mix of constructive company-specific progress and near-term market headwinds. Highlights include clear CapEx and investment plans (EUR 200m CapEx in 2026 and EUR 160m site upgrades over 3 years), an articulated Leadership Journey expected to add ~EUR 150m EBITDA (including Universal synergies), a stronger Q1/Q2 EBITDA run-rate (EUR 100m quarterly in H1), improved Brazil performance (EUR ~75m EBITDA) and flexible spare EAF capacity with a 7%–10% potential utilization uplift. Lowlights are primarily market-driven: a Q4 import surge created an H1 inventory overhang, CBAM/trade defense timing and importer behaviors remain uncertain (despite a planned 1 July start), a ~EUR 300/tonne margin gap versus historic averages, and limited forward visibility due to short order books (2.5 months). On balance, company fundamentals, clear targets, capacity to ramp and diversification into alloys/specialties give meaningful upside potential, while the lowlights represent industry and timing risks that management is actively addressing.Positive Updates
Capacity Utilization and Upside Potential
Current European capacity utilization at Aperam is between 65% and 75%. Management expects a 7%–10% utilization lift from replacement of imports under trade defense measures, and notes flexible electric-arc-furnace (EAF) capacity that can be ramped quickly to capture this upside.
Negative Updates
Import Surge and Inventory Overhang
Significant surge of imports at the end of Q4 created an inventory overhang that is expected to depress demand/put pressure on the market into H1 2026 as distributors draw down stocks.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Capacity Utilization and Upside Potential
Current European capacity utilization at Aperam is between 65% and 75%. Management expects a 7%–10% utilization lift from replacement of imports under trade defense measures, and notes flexible electric-arc-furnace (EAF) capacity that can be ramped quickly to capture this upside.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guidance: Q1 EBITDA is expected to be higher than Q4 with a ~EUR100m quarterly run‑rate across H1 2026 (slow start in Q1, ramp in Q2); normalized FY guidance is EUR700–800m (versus a prior ~EUR800m target), built from a 2025 baseline of EUR350m plus ~EUR150m from the Leadership Journey and ~EUR50m of announced investments (full effect by 2029), with the remaining EUR50–75m dependent on trade‑defense/CBAM recovery; CapEx is c. EUR200m in 2026 (including EUR160m of site upgrades over 3 years; continuity CapEx ~EUR150m); current capacity utilization is ~65–75% with safeguard measures expected to lift utilization 7–10%; Brazil delivered ~EUR75m EBITDA in 2025 (low cycle) and higher Brazilian duties (c.12.6%→25%) are expected to add mid‑single‑digit EUR EBITDA per quarter; A&S target ~EUR100m (+ ~EUR60m from Universal and ~EUR9m synergies) and R&R guidance remains around EUR80–85m; order books run ~2.5 months, Q4 import surge may create an H1 overhang, EU trade measures aim to start 1 July 2026, CBAM payments are retroactive to 2027, and nickel exposure is limited with fuel‑alloys positions fully hedged.Aperam SA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
38
Negative
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
Cash Flow
66
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 6.00B | 6.08B | 6.25B | 6.59B | 8.16B | 5.10B |
| Gross Profit | 6.00B | 341.00M | 449.00M | 330.00M | 1.18B | 1.23B |
| EBITDA | 328.95M | 247.00M | 354.00M | 364.00M | 958.00M | 1.20B |
| Net Income | 26.51M | 9.00M | 231.00M | 203.00M | 625.00M | 968.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 5.27B | 5.17B | 5.84B | 6.21B | 6.26B | 5.91B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 237.25M | 324.86M | 216.00M | 443.00M | 457.00M | 524.00M |
| Total Debt | 1.30B | 1.30B | 760.00M | 934.00M | 925.00M | 990.00M |
| Total Liabilities | 2.01B | 1.96B | 2.47B | 2.76B | 2.87B | 2.96B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.24B | 3.19B | 3.35B | 3.44B | 3.38B | 2.94B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 408.26M | 273.75M | 125.00M | 170.00M | 346.00M | 398.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 536.05M | 405.34M | 280.00M | 471.00M | 642.00M | 550.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -178.21M | -565.75M | -155.00M | -303.00M | -297.00M | -183.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -294.13M | 267.99M | -336.00M | -152.00M | -419.00M | -197.00M |
Aperam SA Technical Analysis
Positive
41.35
Price Trends
46.87
Positive
45.74
Positive
39.93
Positive
Market Momentum
2.40
Positive
59.39
Neutral
32.67
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For APEMY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 41.35 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 53.45, below the 50-day MA of 46.87, and above the 200-day MA of 39.93, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.40 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 59.39 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 32.67 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for APEMY.
Aperam SA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $8.41B | 9.25 | 4.74% | 7.02% | -11.93% | ― | |
64 Neutral | $7.77B | 21.86 | 11.88% | 1.02% | 8.38% | 626.64% | |
63 Neutral | $45.38B | 17.20 | 5.35% | 1.03% | -1.31% | 149.74% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
60 Neutral | $5.20B | 12.42 | 4.48% | ― | -5.87% | -81.34% | |
59 Neutral | $3.93B | 197.13 | 0.28% | 5.12% | 3.46% | -86.52% | |
56 Neutral | $8.53B | 9.20 | 2.53% | 2.92% | 4.46% | -47.34% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
APEMY
Aperam SA
56.31
26.57
89.35%
MT
ArcelorMittal
63.16
32.62
106.82%
CMC
Commercial Metals Company
71.08
24.98
54.17%
GGB
Gerdau SA
4.69
2.04
77.11%
SIM
Grupo Simec SA De CV
30.00
1.74
6.16%
TX
Ternium SA
44.56
18.02
67.87%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.