ArcelorMittal (MT) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $48.92B
• Dividend Yield: 1.03%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.82M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 15.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.97
• Revenue Growth: -4.51%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 125,416
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Steel
• EPS (TTM): 0.23
• Shares Outstanding: 775,000,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,752,775
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,821,391
• PEG Ratio: 0.08
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.64
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.57
• P/FCF Ratio: 73.82
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.17
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.93
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.70
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 9.66
• 1Y Price Target: $56.40
• Price Target Upside: -13.50% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 65 Neutral
• Price Target: $66.00 ▲(1.23% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 02/07/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 02/07/26

MT scores mid-range primarily due to solid financial resilience (low leverage) and improved 2025 profitability, tempered by weak recent free-cash-flow conversion. Technically, the uptrend is strong, but overbought indicators increase near-term risk. Valuation is only modestly supportive (mid P/E, low yield), while the latest earnings call adds a positive outlook and project-driven growth narrative with identifiable cost, policy, and legal uncertainties.

Positive Factors

Vertical integration of mining and steel

Owning iron ore and coal upstream reduces input price exposure, secures raw material availability and supports margin stability over time. This structural integration improves operational resilience and provides a durable cost advantage versus peers reliant on third-party raw material markets.

Low financial leverage

A low debt-to-equity ratio provides balance sheet flexibility to fund capital projects, weather cyclical downturns and maintain capital returns. Over the medium term this strength supports disciplined investment in strategic growth and reduces default and refinancing risk in a capital-intensive industry.

Large India renewables expansion

Investing in 1GW of renewables and $0.9bn capex secures long-term, lower‑carbon power for steelmaking, cutting energy cost exposure and CO2 intensity. This enhances competitiveness in low‑carbon steel markets and aligns with structural decarbonization trends that drive premium demand over multiple years.

Negative Factors

Weak free cash flow conversion

A near‑term collapse in free cash flow growth and weak cash conversion signal limited internal funding for capex, dividends and buybacks without relying on external financing. Persistently poor cash conversion undermines reinvestment ability and reduces financial optionality across cycles.

Modest return on equity

A low ROE constrains the company's ability to generate attractive shareholder returns from invested capital. Over the medium term this implies limited capacity to sustainably increase dividends or justify heavy reinvestment unless operational profitability is improved or capital allocation is rebalanced.

Import pressure in Brazil and India

Sustained import-driven low pricing in key markets erodes domestic margins and market share. If trade remedies remain slow, these structural pressures can depress regional profitability and force recurring operational or pricing adjustments, limiting long‑term margin recovery in those markets.

ArcelorMittal Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

ArcelorMittal S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as integrated steel and mining companies in Europe, North and South America, Asia, and Africa. Its principal steel products include semi-finished flat products, including slabs; finished flat products comprising plates, hot- and cold-rolled coils and sheets, hot-dipped and electro-galvanized coils and sheets, tinplate, and color coated coils and sheets; semi-finished long products, which includes blooms and billets; finished long products, including bars, wire-rods, structural sections, rails, sheet piles, and wire-products; and seamless and welded pipes and tubes. The company's principal mining products comprise iron ore lumps, fines, concentrates, pellets, and sinter feeds; and coking and thermal coal, and pulverized coal injections. It sells its products to various customers in the automotive, appliance, engineering, construction, energy, and machinery industries through a centralized marketing organization, as well as distributors. The company has iron ore mining activities in Brazil, Bosnia, Canada, Kazakhstan, Liberia, Mexico, South Africa, and Ukraine; and coal mining activities in Kazakhstan. ArcelorMittal S.A. was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in Luxembourg City, Luxembourg.

How the Company Makes Money

ArcelorMittal generates revenue primarily through the production and sale of steel products. The company's revenue model is centered around its extensive production capabilities, with steel accounting for a significant portion of its income. Key revenue streams include the sale of flat products (such as hot and cold rolled sheets), long products (such as rebar and wire rods), and specialty products tailored for specific industries. Additionally, ArcelorMittal earns revenue from its mining segment, which supplies iron ore and metallurgical coal to its steel operations, reducing dependency on external suppliers and enhancing profit margins. Strategic partnerships with major customers in sectors like automotive and construction further bolster its revenue, enabling the company to secure long-term contracts and stabilize income. Market demand, global pricing of steel and raw materials, and operational efficiency are critical factors influencing ArcelorMittal's earnings.

ArcelorMittal Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Balance sheet strength is solid with manageable leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.20–0.25) and substantial equity (~$54.5B), supporting resilience through steel cycles. Income statement trends improved in 2025 (revenue rebound and higher net income), but profitability remains cyclical with thin margins versus prior peak-cycle levels. Cash flow is the main constraint: operating cash flow is steady, but 2025 free cash flow (~$0.47B) lags net income, signaling weak cash conversion.

Income Statement

Revenue has been volatile, declining in 2023 and 2024 before rebounding in 2025 (annual revenue growth of ~42%). Profitability is positive and improved in 2025 (net income ~$3.2B vs. ~$1.3B in 2024), but margins remain thin for the industry cycle (2025 net margin ~5.1% and gross margin ~9.6%), well below the peak levels seen in 2021–2022. Overall, earnings power looks recovered versus the trough years, but still highly cyclical with compressed margins versus prior highs.

Balance Sheet

Leverage appears manageable with debt consistently low relative to equity (debt-to-equity ~0.20–0.25 in 2021–2025, down from ~0.35 in 2020). Equity is substantial (~$54.5B in 2025) and supports a large asset base (~$97.7B), which helps resilience through steel cycles. Returns on equity improved to ~5.8% in 2025 but remain modest compared with the strong 2021–2022 period, indicating balance-sheet strength is good, while profitability on capital is currently only mid-level.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow has been positive and fairly steady recently (~$4.8B in 2024–2025), but free cash flow is relatively low versus earnings in the latest year (2025 free cash flow ~$0.47B, about ~10% of net income), implying heavier reinvestment, working-capital drag, or less cash conversion. Cash generation was much stronger in 2021–2022 and especially 2022 (free cash flow ~$6.7B), highlighting meaningful cyclicality. The sharp 2025 free-cash-flow growth is off a low base, but overall cash conversion remains a key watch item.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	61.35B	62.44B	68.28B	79.84B	76.57B
Gross Profit	5.91B	5.79B	5.78B	13.96B	19.05B
EBITDA	5.91B	6.06B	5.58B	14.23B	19.15B
Net Income	3.15B	1.34B	919.00M	9.30B	14.96B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	97.70B	89.39B	93.92B	94.55B	90.51B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	5.48B	6.40B	7.69B	9.30B	4.21B
Total Debt	13.41B	11.56B	10.68B	11.65B	8.40B
Total Liabilities	41.17B	38.10B	37.85B	38.96B	39.17B
Stockholders Equity	54.47B	49.22B	53.96B	53.15B	49.11B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	471.00M	447.00M	3.03B	6.74B	6.90B
Operating Cash Flow	4.81B	4.85B	7.64B	10.20B	9.90B
Investing Cash Flow	-4.55B	-4.99B	-5.85B	-4.48B	-340.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.77B	-680.00M	-3.67B	-477.00M	-10.90B

ArcelorMittal Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 65.20
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 65.2 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 59.43, above the 50-day MA of 51.80, and above the 200-day MA of 38.90, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.99 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 70.16 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.48 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MT.

ArcelorMittal Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
RS	70 Outperform	$17.59B	24.07	10.28%	1.63%	-0.88%	-25.15%
STLD	70 Outperform	$28.15B	24.12	13.25%	1.11%	-1.49%	-31.82%
MT	65 Neutral	$48.92B	15.72	6.12%	1.03%	-4.51%	―
NUE	65 Neutral	$42.23B	24.54	8.44%	1.34%	1.66%	-31.25%
TX	65 Neutral	$8.57B	14.93	4.80%	7.02%	-16.69%	585.38%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
PKX	50 Neutral	$19.59B	59.18	0.78%	3.22%	-8.97%	-67.03%

ArcelorMittal Corporate Events

ArcelorMittal Posts Resilient 2025 Results, Lifts 2026 Dividend and Targets Growth as Trade Tools Tighten European Steel Market

On February 5, 2026, ArcelorMittal reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, showing resilient profitability despite industry headwinds, with 2025 EBITDA of $6.5 billion, net income of $3.2 billion and EBITDA per tonne rising to $121, supported by record iron ore shipments from Liberia and growth investments including renewables in India and the full consolidation of the Calvert facility in the US. The group generated $1.9 billion of investable cash flow over the year, invested $1.1 billion in strategic capex, returned $0.7 billion to shareholders, and ended 2025 with net debt of $7.9 billion and total liquidity of $11.0 billion; on the back of its strengthened credit profile and ratings upgrades from Moody’s and S&P, the board has proposed raising the base dividend to $0.60 per share in 2026 and reaffirmed its commitment to returning at least half of post‑dividend free cash flow via buybacks, while outlining a pipeline of growth projects expected to add $1.6 billion of EBITDA from 2026–2028 and forecasting higher steel demand and increased shipments in 2026, particularly in Europe as new trade measures (CBAM and tariff‑rate quotas) tighten imports and support domestic capacity utilization.

The most recent analyst rating on (MT) stock is a Hold with a $58.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ArcelorMittal stock, see the MT Stock Forecast page.

ArcelorMittal Publishes Analyst Consensus for Q4 and Full-Year 2025 Results

On 3 February 2026, ArcelorMittal published fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 sell-side analyst consensus figures compiled by independent data provider Visible Alpha, based on estimates from around 14–15 brokers that cover the stock on a continuous basis. The aggregated consensus points to expected EBITDA of $1.53 billion and net income of $390 million for Q4 2025, and $6.47 billion of EBITDA, $3.32 billion of net income and earnings per share of $4.36 for full-year 2025, giving investors a market-derived benchmark for upcoming results while the company stresses that these forecasts are entirely analyst-driven and not validated by management.

The most recent analyst rating on (MT) stock is a Hold with a $58.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ArcelorMittal stock, see the MT Stock Forecast page.

ArcelorMittal Secures Long-Term Liberia Mining Deal to 2050, Anchoring $1.8 Billion Expansion

On 30 January 2026, the Government of Liberia and ArcelorMittal signed and ratified an amended long-term Mineral Development Agreement extending the company’s mining rights to 2050, with an option for a further 25 years, cementing ArcelorMittal’s commitment to its Liberian iron ore operations and confirming multi‑user access principles for the Tokadeh–Buchanan rail corridor. The deal underpins ArcelorMittal’s $1.8 billion expansion project—centered on a new state-of-the-art iron ore concentrator at Tokadeh and major rail, port and power investments—which will lift iron ore shipments from about 5 million tonnes annually to 20 million tonnes in 2026, with feasibility studies under way for output beyond that level; in return for extended mining rights and reserved rail capacity, ArcelorMittal will pay Liberia $200 million, while the upgraded infrastructure and quadrupling of exports are expected to significantly boost Liberian GDP, tax and royalty receipts, employment and local business activity, reinforcing both the country’s status as a regional mining hub and the company’s long-term position in West African iron ore.

The most recent analyst rating on (MT) stock is a Hold with a $60.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ArcelorMittal stock, see the MT Stock Forecast page.

ArcelorMittal Rejects €7 Billion Mismanagement Claim Over Acciaierie d’Italia, Vows Vigorous Defense

On 29 January 2026, ArcelorMittal disclosed that it has been served with a writ of summons by the extraordinary commissioners of Acciaierie d’Italia (ADI) in extraordinary administration, requiring it to appear before the Court of Milan over claims that the company mismanaged Italian steel plants formerly owned by Ilva and caused ADI about €7 billion in damages. ArcelorMittal firmly denies all allegations, arguing there is no factual or legal basis for the case, and contends that since entering the public‑private partnership with state‑controlled Invitalia it has invested around €2 billion, including significant environmental spending, while being hindered by what it characterises as adversarial actions by Invitalia and the Italian government, the removal in 2019 of legal protections needed to execute an environmental plan, and subsequent measures that placed ADI into extraordinary administration and effectively expropriated its investment. The company notes it already launched an international arbitration against Italy in June 2025 seeking more than €1.8 billion for alleged unlawful expropriation and discriminatory measures, underscoring that the deepening legal dispute over the ADI assets now exposes both ArcelorMittal and Italian authorities to substantial financial and reputational risks and adds further uncertainty around the future of a major part of Italy’s steel industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (MT) stock is a Hold with a $57.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ArcelorMittal stock, see the MT Stock Forecast page.

ArcelorMittal to Double India Renewables with $0.9 Billion, 1GW Project Push

On 22 December 2025, ArcelorMittal announced three new renewable energy projects in India totaling 1GW of solar and wind capacity, backed by $0.9 billion of capital expenditure and scheduled for completion between 2027 and 2028, which will double its Indian renewable capacity to 2GW and lift its global renewable portfolio to 3.3GW. The power will supply its AMNS India steelmaking joint venture, contributing to an expected 4 million tonnes of annual CO2 savings and covering about 35% of the Hazira plant’s projected 2028 electricity needs once all Indian projects are online, reinforcing the company’s strategy to secure clean energy for its operations and strengthen its competitive position in low‑carbon steel production alongside similar renewable ventures in Brazil and Argentina.

The most recent analyst rating on (MT) stock is a Buy with a $43.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ArcelorMittal stock, see the MT Stock Forecast page.

ArcelorMittal Releases 2026 Financial Calendar

On December 12, 2025, ArcelorMittal announced its financial calendar for 2026, detailing the dates for its quarterly earnings results and the Annual General Meeting of Shareholders. This announcement provides stakeholders with a clear timeline for the company’s financial disclosures in the upcoming year, potentially impacting investor relations and market expectations.

The most recent analyst rating on (MT) stock is a Buy with a $43.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ArcelorMittal stock, see the MT Stock Forecast page.

ArcelorMittal Cancels Over 77 Million Treasury Shares

On November 21, 2025, ArcelorMittal announced the cancellation of 77,809,772 treasury shares, reducing its total shares in issue to 775,000,000. This move is part of the company’s strategy to manage its share capital effectively, with the remaining treasury shares being used to fulfill commitments related to its Long-Term Incentive Plan. The cancellation aligns with transparency requirements under Luxembourg law and is expected to impact the company’s shareholding structure and potentially its market valuation.

The most recent analyst rating on (MT) stock is a Buy with a $43.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ArcelorMittal stock, see the MT Stock Forecast page.