ArcelorMittal (MT)
NYSE:MT
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ArcelorMittal
(NYSE:MT)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$61.00
▼(-1.71% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:05/02/26
MT scores as a mid-range opportunity: the strongest factor is a solid, conservatively levered balance sheet, supported by a constructive 2026 outlook and improving EBITDA driven by strategic projects. The score is held back by compressed current-cycle profitability and weak free-cash-flow conversion, plus mixed near-term technical momentum and only moderate valuation support.
Positive Factors
Conservative balance sheet
A low debt-to-equity (~0.25) and sizable equity provide durable financial flexibility for a cyclical industrial. This supports capital allocation through cycles (capex, strategic projects, buybacks, dividends), reduces refinancing risk, and underpins credit stability over the 2–6 month horizon and beyond.
Negative Factors
Thin free-cash-flow conversion
Despite strong operating cash generation, low free-cash-flow conversion (~$0.5B) limits the company's ability to fund growth and returns without leaning on debt or asset sales. Persistent reinvestment needs and modest FCF reduce buffer for downturns and constrain discretionary capital deployment.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Conservative balance sheet
A low debt-to-equity (~0.25) and sizable equity provide durable financial flexibility for a cyclical industrial. This supports capital allocation through cycles (capex, strategic projects, buybacks, dividends), reduces refinancing risk, and underpins credit stability over the 2–6 month horizon and beyond.
Read all positive factors
ArcelorMittal (MT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$42.94B
Dividend Yield1.03%
Average Volume (3M)1.84M
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.2
Beta (1Y)1.14
Revenue Growth-1.31%
EPS Growth149.74%
CountryUS
Employees125,416
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustrySteel
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.75
Shares Outstanding775,000,000
10 Day Avg. Volume1,647,932
30 Day Avg. Volume1,843,428
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.08
Price to Book (P/B)0.64
Price to Sales (P/S)0.57
P/FCF Ratio73.82
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.20
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.83
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.51
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.86
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$66.60Price Target Upside7.32% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)4.64
Revenue Forecast (FY)$66.64B
ArcelorMittal Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
ArcelorMittal S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as integrated steel and mining companies in Europe, North and South America, Asia, and Africa. Its principal steel products include semi-finished flat products, including slabs; finished...
How the Company Makes Money
ArcelorMittal primarily makes money by manufacturing and selling steel and related products, supplemented by earnings from its mining operations and downstream processing. (1) Steel product sales: The company’s largest revenue stream is the sale o...
ArcelorMittal Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Average Steel Selling Price Per Tonne
Indicates the average price at which steel is sold, reflecting market demand, pricing power, and potential revenue growth or pressure.
Indicates the average price at which steel is sold, reflecting market demand, pricing power, and potential revenue growth or pressure.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyArcelorMittal Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was broadly positive: ArcelorMittal reported materially improved underlying earnings ($6.5bn EBITDA; $121/tonne) and demonstrated that strategic projects and portfolio moves are contributing tangible EBITDA uplift ($0.7bn in 2025 with ~$1.6bn additional expected). Management highlighted strong cash generation ($1.9bn investable cash), sustained shareholder returns (dividend increase to $0.60 and 38% reduction in share count over five years) and supportive trade-policy developments (EU TRQ and CBAM) that improve the medium‑term outlook. Key near-term challenges include Q4 Mexico operational disruptions (recovering in Q1), rising raw-material and CO2 costs, unresolved regulatory nuances around CBAM/ETS, and a legal matter at Ilva that could take years to resolve. Overall, positive operational momentum and strategic clarity outweigh the identifiable near-term headwinds and uncertainties.Positive Updates
Strong EBITDA and Margin Improvement
Reported EBITDA of $6.5 billion in 2025 and $121 EBITDA per tonne shipped, described as almost double the margin at previous cyclical lows, indicating a structurally improved earnings power.
Negative Updates
Mexico Operational Disruption in Q4
Operational problems in Mexico in Q4 reduced volumes; management expects recovery in Q1 as Mexican long furnace restarted end of January (approx. 1 million tonne furnace providing two months of production) and flat product maintenance downtime in Q4 will be restored in Q1.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong EBITDA and Margin Improvement
Reported EBITDA of $6.5 billion in 2025 and $121 EBITDA per tonne shipped, described as almost double the margin at previous cyclical lows, indicating a structurally improved earnings power.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
ArcelorMittal reiterated a constructive 2026 outlook, expecting higher steel production and shipments across all regions and continued positive free cash flow, while highlighting 2025 metrics of $6.5bn EBITDA (≈$121/tonne) and $1.9bn investable cash flow (vs $2.0bn in 2024; $23.5bn total since 2021); capital allocation in 2025 deployed $1.1bn to strategic growth, returned $0.7bn to shareholders, used $0.2bn for M&A and assumed $1.7bn net debt, proposed a $0.60 base dividend (doubling over five years) and cut share count 38% over five years; guidance includes $4.5–5.0bn annual CapEx, D&A of ~$2.9–3.0bn for 2026, strategic projects that added $0.7bn in 2025 and are expected to add ~$1.6bn more EBITDA, and a Liberia MDA payment of ~$200m in Q1 (extending the MDA to 2050 and enabling rail capacity up to ~30mt).ArcelorMittal Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 62.01B | 61.35B | 62.44B | 68.28B | 79.84B | 76.57B |
| Gross Profit | 34.15B | 5.91B | 5.79B | 5.78B | 13.96B | 19.05B |
| EBITDA | 5.81B | 5.91B | 6.06B | 5.58B | 14.23B | 19.15B |
| Net Income | 2.92B | 3.15B | 1.34B | 919.00M | 9.30B | 14.96B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 98.27B | 97.70B | 89.39B | 93.92B | 94.55B | 90.51B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 4.36B | 5.48B | 6.40B | 7.69B | 9.30B | 4.21B |
| Total Debt | 13.68B | 13.41B | 11.56B | 10.68B | 11.65B | 8.40B |
| Total Liabilities | 41.06B | 41.17B | 38.10B | 37.85B | 38.96B | 39.17B |
| Stockholders Equity | 55.19B | 54.47B | 49.22B | 53.96B | 53.15B | 49.11B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 512.00M | 471.00M | 447.00M | 3.03B | 6.74B | 6.90B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 5.15B | 4.81B | 4.85B | 7.64B | 10.20B | 9.90B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.85B | -4.55B | -4.99B | -5.85B | -4.48B | -340.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.57B | -1.77B | -680.00M | -3.67B | -477.00M | -10.90B |
ArcelorMittal Technical Analysis
Positive
62.06
Price Trends
58.12
Positive
52.71
Positive
44.04
Positive
Market Momentum
1.75
Negative
62.72
Neutral
84.40
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 62.06 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 55.36, above the 50-day MA of 58.12, and above the 200-day MA of 44.04, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.75 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.72 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.40 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MT.
ArcelorMittal Risk Analysis
ArcelorMittal disclosed 37 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. ArcelorMittal reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
ArcelorMittal Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $18.68B | 14.73 | 11.18% | 1.63% | 8.49% | 9.68% | |
69 Neutral | $33.06B | 16.15 | 15.25% | 1.11% | 10.44% | 23.34% | |
66 Neutral | $51.49B | 13.28 | 11.16% | 1.34% | 5.73% | -10.36% | |
65 Neutral | $8.52B | 17.63 | 3.53% | 7.02% | -11.93% | ― | |
63 Neutral | $42.94B | 17.20 | 5.87% | 1.03% | -1.31% | 149.74% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
51 Neutral | $23.23B | 143.70 | 1.19% | 3.22% | -5.70% | -9.39% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
MT
ArcelorMittal
56.85
26.98
90.33%
NUE
Nucor
226.04
107.35
90.45%
PKX
POSCO
78.71
32.25
69.41%
RS
Reliance Steel
365.85
75.78
26.12%
STLD
Steel Dynamics
229.27
97.93
74.56%
TX
Ternium SA
43.39
16.24
59.81%
ArcelorMittal Corporate Events
ArcelorMittal Posts Strong Q1 2026 and Positions for European Market Upswing
Apr 30, 2026
On April 30, 2026, ArcelorMittal reported resilient first‑quarter 2026 results, with EBITDA per tonne rising to $131, net income of $0.6 billion and record iron ore production and shipments in Liberia. The company highlighted a sharp improve...
ArcelorMittal’s 2025 Sustainability Report Highlights Safety Gains and Deep Emissions Cuts
Apr 23, 2026
On April 23, 2026, ArcelorMittal released its 2025 Sustainability Report, highlighting progress toward safer, lower-carbon and more responsible steelmaking across its global operations. The report, prepared under leading sustainability frameworks,...
ArcelorMittal Calls May 5, 2026 Shareholder Meetings, Proposes Board Changes and Capital Powers
Apr 3, 2026
On April 3, 2026, ArcelorMittal announced it has published the convening notice for its Annual General Meeting and Extraordinary General Meeting of shareholders, both scheduled for May 5, 2026, in Luxembourg. Shareholders of record as of April 21,...
ArcelorMittal Publishes 2025 Statutory Financial Statements for Parent Company
Mar 30, 2026
On March 27, 2026, ArcelorMittal announced that it had published the parent company’s statutory financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2025. The statements have been filed with the electronic database of the Luxembourg Stock Ex...
ArcelorMittal Centralizes Management Share Deal Disclosures Under EU Market Abuse Rules
Mar 17, 2026
On March 17, 2026, ArcelorMittal announced that notifications of share transactions carried out by its designated persons, including directors and executive officers, are now available through the Luxembourg Stock Exchange’s OAM database and...
ArcelorMittal Files 2025 Annual Reports and Details Capital Returns, Shareholder Buyback Deal
Mar 10, 2026
On 6 March 2026 ArcelorMittal filed its 2025 Annual Report on Form 20‑F with the U.S. SEC and published its 2025 annual report in Luxembourg, making audited financial statements and detailed disclosures available to investors and regulators....
ArcelorMittal Discloses Management Share Transaction Under EU Market Abuse Rules
Feb 11, 2026
On February 11, 2026, ArcelorMittal reported that a notification of a share transaction carried out by a designated person, such as a director or executive officer, had been filed in line with EU Market Abuse Regulation requirements. The company s...
ArcelorMittal Commits €1.3bn to Low-Carbon Electric Arc Furnace in Dunkirk
Feb 10, 2026
On 10 February 2026, ArcelorMittal confirmed a €1.3 billion investment to build a 2‑million‑tonne electric arc furnace at its Dunkirk, France, site, scheduled to start up in 2029. The project, hailed during a visit by President E...
ArcelorMittal Posts Resilient 2025 Results, Lifts 2026 Dividend and Targets Growth as Trade Tools Tighten European Steel Market
Feb 5, 2026
On February 5, 2026, ArcelorMittal reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, showing resilient profitability despite industry headwinds, with 2025 EBITDA of $6.5 billion, net income of $3.2 billion and EBITDA per tonne rising to $121...
ArcelorMittal Publishes Analyst Consensus for Q4 and Full-Year 2025 Results
Feb 4, 2026
On 3 February 2026, ArcelorMittal published fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 sell-side analyst consensus figures compiled by independent data provider Visible Alpha, based on estimates from around 14–15 brokers that cover the stock on a con...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.