ArcelorMittal (MT) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $38.09B
• Dividend Yield: 1.03%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.01M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 49.5
• Beta (1Y): 1.10
• Revenue Growth: -4.51%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 125,416
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Steel
• EPS (TTM): 0.23
• Shares Outstanding: 775,000,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,293,747
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,007,302
• PEG Ratio: 0.08
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.64
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.57
• P/FCF Ratio: 73.82
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.23
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.76
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.40
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 7.93
• 1Y Price Target: $60.10
• Price Target Upside: 18.45% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): 4.83
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $67.15B

• Rating: 65 Neutral
• Price Target: $55.00 ▲(8.40% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 02/07/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 02/07/26

MT scores mid-range primarily due to solid financial resilience (low leverage) and improved 2025 profitability, tempered by weak recent free-cash-flow conversion. Technically, the uptrend is strong, but overbought indicators increase near-term risk. Valuation is only modestly supportive (mid P/E, low yield), while the latest earnings call adds a positive outlook and project-driven growth narrative with identifiable cost, policy, and legal uncertainties.

Positive Factors

Balance Sheet Strength

Low leverage and a substantial equity base provide durable financial resilience through steel cycles. This balance‑sheet strength supports funding of strategic capex, capacity expansions and buybacks, preserves liquidity during downturns and underpins credit rating stability over the medium term.

Project‑driven EBITDA Growth

Tangible EBITDA uplift from executed projects shows management can convert capital into sustainable earnings. The announced pipeline ($0.7bn delivered, ~$1.6bn expected) materially boosts structural earnings power, reduces reliance on cyclical price swings and supports medium‑term margin improvement.

Secured Iron‑Ore Supply (Liberia)

Long‑dated mining rights and a major Liberia expansion lock in low‑cost feedstock and logistics optionality. Vertical integration from secured ore volumes reduces exposure to spot ore volatility, lowers structural raw‑material cost risk and supports higher, sustainable steel throughput.

Negative Factors

Weak Free Cash Flow Conversion

Free cash flow significantly undershot net income in 2025, indicating weak cash conversion from earnings. Persistent low FCF versus profits limits debt reduction, funds available for buybacks/dividends, and constrains reinvestment flexibility if cyclicality or working‑capital pressure reappears.

Ilva Legal Claim Risk

A large, unresolved legal claim tied to Ilva creates multi‑year uncertainty. Potential provisions, adverse rulings or reputational damage could materially affect cash, capital allocation and operations in Italy and divert management focus from strategic projects over the long term.

Rising Input and CO₂ / Regulatory Costs

Structural cost pressure from raw materials and rising CO₂ prices — combined with CBAM/ETS uncertainty — can compress margins persistently. Lagged pricing and potential policy tightening increase capital and operating costs, necessitating ongoing decarbonization spending that strains returns.

ArcelorMittal Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

ArcelorMittal S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as integrated steel and mining companies in Europe, North and South America, Asia, and Africa. Its principal steel products include semi-finished flat products, including slabs; finished flat products comprising plates, hot- and cold-rolled coils and sheets, hot-dipped and electro-galvanized coils and sheets, tinplate, and color coated coils and sheets; semi-finished long products, which includes blooms and billets; finished long products, including bars, wire-rods, structural sections, rails, sheet piles, and wire-products; and seamless and welded pipes and tubes. The company's principal mining products comprise iron ore lumps, fines, concentrates, pellets, and sinter feeds; and coking and thermal coal, and pulverized coal injections. It sells its products to various customers in the automotive, appliance, engineering, construction, energy, and machinery industries through a centralized marketing organization, as well as distributors. The company has iron ore mining activities in Brazil, Bosnia, Canada, Kazakhstan, Liberia, Mexico, South Africa, and Ukraine; and coal mining activities in Kazakhstan. ArcelorMittal S.A. was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in Luxembourg City, Luxembourg.

How the Company Makes Money

ArcelorMittal primarily makes money by manufacturing and selling steel and related products, supplemented by earnings from its mining operations and downstream processing. (1) Steel product sales: The company’s largest revenue stream is the sale of steel—typically including flat products (e.g., hot-rolled, cold-rolled, coated steel), long products (e.g., rebar, wire rod, sections), and tubular or other specialized products—sold to industrial customers and distributors. Revenue is driven by shipment volumes and realized steel prices, which reflect market supply/demand, raw material and energy costs, product mix, and regional pricing dynamics. (2) Value-added and downstream solutions: ArcelorMittal generates additional revenue and margin from processing, finishing, and supplying higher-value steels (including grades designed for automotive and other demanding applications) and by providing services that support customer needs (e.g., coating, galvanizing, slitting, and other finishing/processing activities where offered). (3) Mining segment: The company earns revenue from producing iron ore and metallurgical coal. This output can be used internally to supply its steel plants (supporting cost structure and supply security) and, depending on market conditions and asset footprint, can also be sold to third parties; mining earnings are influenced by benchmark commodity prices, production volumes, and operating costs. (4) Trading and other activities: The company may also generate revenue from distribution/trading activities associated with steel products and raw materials, and from other ancillary operations tied to its industrial footprint. Key factors affecting earnings include global and regional steel demand cycles, raw material and energy pricing (iron ore, coal, scrap, electricity, natural gas), capacity utilization, cost efficiency, product mix (commodity vs. higher-value grades), and trade/regulatory conditions (tariffs, quotas, and environmental compliance requirements).

ArcelorMittal Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Balance sheet strength is solid with manageable leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.20–0.25) and substantial equity (~$54.5B), supporting resilience through steel cycles. Income statement trends improved in 2025 (revenue rebound and higher net income), but profitability remains cyclical with thin margins versus prior peak-cycle levels. Cash flow is the main constraint: operating cash flow is steady, but 2025 free cash flow (~$0.47B) lags net income, signaling weak cash conversion.

Income Statement

Revenue has been volatile, declining in 2023 and 2024 before rebounding in 2025 (annual revenue growth of ~42%). Profitability is positive and improved in 2025 (net income ~$3.2B vs. ~$1.3B in 2024), but margins remain thin for the industry cycle (2025 net margin ~5.1% and gross margin ~9.6%), well below the peak levels seen in 2021–2022. Overall, earnings power looks recovered versus the trough years, but still highly cyclical with compressed margins versus prior highs.

Balance Sheet

Leverage appears manageable with debt consistently low relative to equity (debt-to-equity ~0.20–0.25 in 2021–2025, down from ~0.35 in 2020). Equity is substantial (~$54.5B in 2025) and supports a large asset base (~$97.7B), which helps resilience through steel cycles. Returns on equity improved to ~5.8% in 2025 but remain modest compared with the strong 2021–2022 period, indicating balance-sheet strength is good, while profitability on capital is currently only mid-level.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow has been positive and fairly steady recently (~$4.8B in 2024–2025), but free cash flow is relatively low versus earnings in the latest year (2025 free cash flow ~$0.47B, about ~10% of net income), implying heavier reinvestment, working-capital drag, or less cash conversion. Cash generation was much stronger in 2021–2022 and especially 2022 (free cash flow ~$6.7B), highlighting meaningful cyclicality. The sharp 2025 free-cash-flow growth is off a low base, but overall cash conversion remains a key watch item.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	61.35B	62.44B	68.28B	79.84B	76.57B
Gross Profit	5.91B	5.79B	5.78B	13.96B	19.05B
EBITDA	5.91B	6.06B	5.58B	14.23B	19.15B
Net Income	3.15B	1.34B	919.00M	9.30B	14.96B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	97.70B	89.39B	93.92B	94.55B	90.51B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	5.48B	6.40B	7.69B	9.30B	4.21B
Total Debt	13.41B	11.56B	10.68B	11.65B	8.40B
Total Liabilities	41.17B	38.10B	37.85B	38.96B	39.17B
Stockholders Equity	54.47B	49.22B	53.96B	53.15B	49.11B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	471.00M	447.00M	3.03B	6.74B	6.90B
Operating Cash Flow	4.81B	4.85B	7.64B	10.20B	9.90B
Investing Cash Flow	-4.55B	-4.99B	-5.85B	-4.48B	-340.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.77B	-680.00M	-3.67B	-477.00M	-10.90B

ArcelorMittal Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 50.74
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MT, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 50.74 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 61.12, below the 50-day MA of 56.28, and above the 200-day MA of 41.13, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.10 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 32.49 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.06 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for MT.

ArcelorMittal Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
RS	70 Outperform	$15.39B	20.53	10.27%	1.63%	-0.88%	-25.15%
STLD	69 Neutral	$24.72B	21.13	13.31%	1.11%	-1.49%	-31.82%
MT	65 Neutral	$38.09B	49.53	6.11%	1.03%	-4.51%	―
NUE	65 Neutral	$37.24B	21.58	8.49%	1.34%	1.66%	-31.25%
TX	65 Neutral	$7.41B	17.63	3.53%	7.02%	-16.69%	585.38%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
PKX	52 Neutral	$17.00B	37.71	1.03%	3.22%	-8.97%	-67.03%

ArcelorMittal Corporate Events

ArcelorMittal Files 2025 Annual Reports and Details Capital Returns, Shareholder Buyback Deal

On 6 March 2026 ArcelorMittal filed its 2025 Annual Report on Form 20‑F with the U.S. SEC and published its 2025 annual report in Luxembourg, making audited financial statements and detailed disclosures available to investors and regulators. The company highlighted safety improvements in the first year of its three‑year program, disciplined capital allocation with $1.1 billion in strategic capex and $0.7 billion returned to shareholders, stronger credit ratings, rising iron‑ore self‑sufficiency, and increased investments in renewables, electric‑arc furnace capacity and electrical steels.

ArcelorMittal underscored its industry‑leading R&D spend of $335 million in 2025 and a capital‑returns policy that includes a proposed higher FY 2026 dividend and ongoing buybacks of at least half of post‑dividend free cash flow. It also disclosed that its significant shareholder, which holds 44.6% of issued shares, entered a share repurchase agreement on 5 March 2026 to sell stock back to the company in proportion to its stake under the ongoing 2025–2030 buyback programme, a move intended to preserve free float while supporting shareholder returns and balance‑sheet strength.

The most recent analyst rating on (MT) stock is a Buy with a $68.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ArcelorMittal stock, see the MT Stock Forecast page.

ArcelorMittal Discloses Management Share Transaction Under EU Market Abuse Rules

On February 11, 2026, ArcelorMittal reported that a notification of a share transaction carried out by a designated person, such as a director or executive officer, had been filed in line with EU Market Abuse Regulation requirements. The company said details of the insider share dealing are available through the Luxembourg Stock Exchange’s OAM database and its own website, underscoring its adherence to transparency and governance rules for management share transactions.

While the announcement is procedural rather than strategic, it signals continued compliance with European market abuse and disclosure standards, which is closely watched by regulators and investors. By promptly publishing the notice and directing stakeholders to the official records, ArcelorMittal reinforces its corporate governance framework and maintains confidence around insider dealing oversight in its listed securities.

The most recent analyst rating on (MT) stock is a Buy with a $68.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ArcelorMittal stock, see the MT Stock Forecast page.

ArcelorMittal Commits €1.3bn to Low-Carbon Electric Arc Furnace in Dunkirk

On 10 February 2026, ArcelorMittal confirmed a €1.3 billion investment to build a 2‑million‑tonne electric arc furnace at its Dunkirk, France, site, scheduled to start up in 2029. The project, hailed during a visit by President Emmanuel Macron and French ministers, is designed to cut CO₂ emissions from the plant’s steel output to around one‑third of traditional blast furnace levels.

Half of the investment will be backed by France’s Energy Efficiency Certificates scheme, while recent EU moves on tariff‑rate quotas and reform of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, plus a long‑term low‑carbon power contract with EDF, were cited as key to the decision. ArcelorMittal said these conditions underpin its broader European decarbonisation strategy, which also includes a €500 million electrical steel unit coming online this quarter at nearby Mardyck to serve electrification in industrial and automotive markets.

The most recent analyst rating on (MT) stock is a Buy with a $68.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ArcelorMittal stock, see the MT Stock Forecast page.

ArcelorMittal Posts Resilient 2025 Results, Lifts 2026 Dividend and Targets Growth as Trade Tools Tighten European Steel Market

On February 5, 2026, ArcelorMittal reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, showing resilient profitability despite industry headwinds, with 2025 EBITDA of $6.5 billion, net income of $3.2 billion and EBITDA per tonne rising to $121, supported by record iron ore shipments from Liberia and growth investments including renewables in India and the full consolidation of the Calvert facility in the US. The group generated $1.9 billion of investable cash flow over the year, invested $1.1 billion in strategic capex, returned $0.7 billion to shareholders, and ended 2025 with net debt of $7.9 billion and total liquidity of $11.0 billion; on the back of its strengthened credit profile and ratings upgrades from Moody’s and S&P, the board has proposed raising the base dividend to $0.60 per share in 2026 and reaffirmed its commitment to returning at least half of post‑dividend free cash flow via buybacks, while outlining a pipeline of growth projects expected to add $1.6 billion of EBITDA from 2026–2028 and forecasting higher steel demand and increased shipments in 2026, particularly in Europe as new trade measures (CBAM and tariff‑rate quotas) tighten imports and support domestic capacity utilization.

The most recent analyst rating on (MT) stock is a Hold with a $58.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ArcelorMittal stock, see the MT Stock Forecast page.

ArcelorMittal Publishes Analyst Consensus for Q4 and Full-Year 2025 Results

On 3 February 2026, ArcelorMittal published fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 sell-side analyst consensus figures compiled by independent data provider Visible Alpha, based on estimates from around 14–15 brokers that cover the stock on a continuous basis. The aggregated consensus points to expected EBITDA of $1.53 billion and net income of $390 million for Q4 2025, and $6.47 billion of EBITDA, $3.32 billion of net income and earnings per share of $4.36 for full-year 2025, giving investors a market-derived benchmark for upcoming results while the company stresses that these forecasts are entirely analyst-driven and not validated by management.

The most recent analyst rating on (MT) stock is a Hold with a $58.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ArcelorMittal stock, see the MT Stock Forecast page.

ArcelorMittal Secures Long-Term Liberia Mining Deal to 2050, Anchoring $1.8 Billion Expansion

On 30 January 2026, the Government of Liberia and ArcelorMittal signed and ratified an amended long-term Mineral Development Agreement extending the company’s mining rights to 2050, with an option for a further 25 years, cementing ArcelorMittal’s commitment to its Liberian iron ore operations and confirming multi‑user access principles for the Tokadeh–Buchanan rail corridor. The deal underpins ArcelorMittal’s $1.8 billion expansion project—centered on a new state-of-the-art iron ore concentrator at Tokadeh and major rail, port and power investments—which will lift iron ore shipments from about 5 million tonnes annually to 20 million tonnes in 2026, with feasibility studies under way for output beyond that level; in return for extended mining rights and reserved rail capacity, ArcelorMittal will pay Liberia $200 million, while the upgraded infrastructure and quadrupling of exports are expected to significantly boost Liberian GDP, tax and royalty receipts, employment and local business activity, reinforcing both the country’s status as a regional mining hub and the company’s long-term position in West African iron ore.

The most recent analyst rating on (MT) stock is a Hold with a $60.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ArcelorMittal stock, see the MT Stock Forecast page.

ArcelorMittal Rejects €7 Billion Mismanagement Claim Over Acciaierie d’Italia, Vows Vigorous Defense

On 29 January 2026, ArcelorMittal disclosed that it has been served with a writ of summons by the extraordinary commissioners of Acciaierie d’Italia (ADI) in extraordinary administration, requiring it to appear before the Court of Milan over claims that the company mismanaged Italian steel plants formerly owned by Ilva and caused ADI about €7 billion in damages. ArcelorMittal firmly denies all allegations, arguing there is no factual or legal basis for the case, and contends that since entering the public‑private partnership with state‑controlled Invitalia it has invested around €2 billion, including significant environmental spending, while being hindered by what it characterises as adversarial actions by Invitalia and the Italian government, the removal in 2019 of legal protections needed to execute an environmental plan, and subsequent measures that placed ADI into extraordinary administration and effectively expropriated its investment. The company notes it already launched an international arbitration against Italy in June 2025 seeking more than €1.8 billion for alleged unlawful expropriation and discriminatory measures, underscoring that the deepening legal dispute over the ADI assets now exposes both ArcelorMittal and Italian authorities to substantial financial and reputational risks and adds further uncertainty around the future of a major part of Italy’s steel industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (MT) stock is a Hold with a $57.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ArcelorMittal stock, see the MT Stock Forecast page.

ArcelorMittal to Double India Renewables with $0.9 Billion, 1GW Project Push

On 22 December 2025, ArcelorMittal announced three new renewable energy projects in India totaling 1GW of solar and wind capacity, backed by $0.9 billion of capital expenditure and scheduled for completion between 2027 and 2028, which will double its Indian renewable capacity to 2GW and lift its global renewable portfolio to 3.3GW. The power will supply its AMNS India steelmaking joint venture, contributing to an expected 4 million tonnes of annual CO2 savings and covering about 35% of the Hazira plant’s projected 2028 electricity needs once all Indian projects are online, reinforcing the company’s strategy to secure clean energy for its operations and strengthen its competitive position in low‑carbon steel production alongside similar renewable ventures in Brazil and Argentina.

The most recent analyst rating on (MT) stock is a Buy with a $43.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ArcelorMittal stock, see the MT Stock Forecast page.

ArcelorMittal Releases 2026 Financial Calendar

On December 12, 2025, ArcelorMittal announced its financial calendar for 2026, detailing the dates for its quarterly earnings results and the Annual General Meeting of Shareholders. This announcement provides stakeholders with a clear timeline for the company’s financial disclosures in the upcoming year, potentially impacting investor relations and market expectations.

The most recent analyst rating on (MT) stock is a Buy with a $43.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ArcelorMittal stock, see the MT Stock Forecast page.