ArcelorMittal (MT)
NYSE:MT
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ArcelorMittal
(NYSE:MT)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$70.00
â–²(12.79% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/04/26
The score is anchored by solid financial resilience (notably a conservative balance sheet) but held back by modest current-cycle profitability and thin free cash flow conversion. The latest earnings call meaningfully improves the outlook with guidance for Q2 improvement and a credible 2026 EBITDA uplift pipeline, while technicals and valuation are mixed and do not provide strong near-term support.
Positive Factors
Conservative balance sheet
Low leverage and a sizable equity base give ArcelorMittal durable financial flexibility through steel cycles. A conservative balance sheet supports investment in strategic projects, maintains access to capital markets, and reduces refinancing risk, enabling multi-year execution of growth and decarbonization plans.
Negative Factors
Thin FCF conversion
Weak free-cash-flow conversion versus operating cash suggests heavy reinvestment and lumpy timing of working-capital flows. For a capital-intensive steel miner, modest absolute FCF constrains rapid deleveraging, limits discretionary investment pacing, and leaves less margin for error during downturns.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Conservative balance sheet
Low leverage and a sizable equity base give ArcelorMittal durable financial flexibility through steel cycles. A conservative balance sheet supports investment in strategic projects, maintains access to capital markets, and reduces refinancing risk, enabling multi-year execution of growth and decarbonization plans.
Read all positive factors
ArcelorMittal Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Average Steel Selling Price Per Tonne
Indicates the average price at which steel is sold, reflecting market demand, pricing power, and potential revenue growth or pressure.
Indicates the average price at which steel is sold, reflecting market demand, pricing power, and potential revenue growth or pressure.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyArcelorMittal (MT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$49.03B
Dividend Yield1.03%
Average Volume (3M)1.89M
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.2
Beta (1Y)1.19
Revenue Growth-1.31%
EPS Growth149.74%
CountryUS
Employees125,416
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustrySteel
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.82
Shares Outstanding775,000,000
10 Day Avg. Volume2,347,678
30 Day Avg. Volume1,891,902
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.08
Price to Book (P/B)0.64
Price to Sales (P/S)0.57
P/FCF Ratio73.82
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.21
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.96
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.74
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.23
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$60.00Price Target Upside-3.32% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)4.7
Revenue Forecast (FY)$66.78B
ArcelorMittal Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
ArcelorMittal S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as integrated steel and mining companies in Europe, North and South America, Asia, and Africa. Its principal steel products include semi-finished flat products, including slabs; finished...
How the Company Makes Money
ArcelorMittal primarily makes money by manufacturing and selling steel and related products, supplemented by earnings from its mining operations and downstream processing. (1) Steel product sales: The company’s largest revenue stream is the sale o...
ArcelorMittal Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized multiple clear positives: structurally stronger margins (EBITDA $131/tonne; +$15/tonne YoY), a >$2bn annualized underlying free cash flow run‑rate, a defined pipeline of high‑return EAF projects totalling $1.8bn incremental EBITDA from 2026, and supportive trade policy developments in Europe (CBAM and TRQ) that management expects to lift prices and domestic demand. Operational momentum was highlighted across iron ore, EAF ramp (Calvert) and capacity restarts, alongside sustained shareholder return achievements (38% share count reduction; dividend doubled). Headwinds include elevated short‑term European imports/inventories, Q1 Ukraine losses from energy costs, increasing CO2 costs not yet offset in results, a recalibrated 2030 emissions target (-10% vs prior -30%), and persistent North American tariff headwinds. On balance the highlights materially outweigh the lowlights, with management signaling improving visibility into free cash flow and margin recovery for the rest of 2026.Positive Updates
Strong Q1 EBITDA per Tonne
Reported EBITDA of $131/tonne in Q1, up $15/tonne year‑on‑year and ~50% higher than the company's historical average margins, indicating structural earnings improvement.
Negative Updates
European Imports and Inventory Overhang
Imports were elevated in Q4 and remained high into Q1 with some continued elevation into early Q2 as players front‑load before the new TRQ; inventories are higher than normal (though not described as excessive), which could temporarily mute domestic recovery and price pass‑through.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Q1 EBITDA per Tonne
Reported EBITDA of $131/tonne in Q1, up $15/tonne year‑on‑year and ~50% higher than the company's historical average margins, indicating structural earnings improvement.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The guidance emphasized a clear Q2 improvement across Steel segments: Q1 EBITDA was $131/tonne (up $15/tonne YoY and ~50% above historical average) and management expects a step‑up in prices/EBITDA in Q2; underlying free cash flow (ex seasonal working capital and strategic growth CapEx) is annualizing at >$2.0bn; strategic projects (including Dunkirk, Sestao and Gijon) are expected to deliver incremental EBITDA of $1.8bn from 2026 onwards; iron‑ore shipments are targeted at ≥80Mt with full mining capacity in H2; Calvert EAF ran >20–25% in Q1 and should be much higher by end‑Q2 with ramp largely complete by year‑end; Europe shipments are guided higher year‑on‑year with H2 expected to be stronger than H1; trade measures (CBAM and TRQ effective 1 July 2026) have already correlated with ~€100 index price moves and should further benefit results from Q2, though imports may be elevated into Q2 ahead of the TRQ; North America tariff headwinds remain (c. $150m/quarter), Ukraine was EBITDA‑negative in Q1 but energy costs have eased and Q2 should improve, and the company expects to be free‑cash‑flow positive for the year and to continue capital returns above the 50% minimum while maintaining an investment‑grade balance sheet (share count down 38% and dividend doubled over five years).ArcelorMittal Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 62.01B | 61.35B | 62.44B | 68.28B | 79.84B | 76.57B |
| Gross Profit | 34.15B | 5.91B | 5.79B | 5.78B | 13.96B | 19.05B |
| EBITDA | 5.81B | 5.91B | 6.06B | 5.58B | 14.23B | 19.15B |
| Net Income | 2.92B | 3.15B | 1.34B | 919.00M | 9.30B | 14.96B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 98.27B | 97.70B | 89.39B | 93.92B | 94.55B | 90.51B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 4.36B | 5.48B | 6.40B | 7.69B | 9.30B | 4.21B |
| Total Debt | 13.68B | 13.41B | 11.56B | 10.68B | 11.65B | 8.40B |
| Total Liabilities | 41.06B | 41.17B | 38.10B | 37.85B | 38.96B | 39.17B |
| Stockholders Equity | 55.19B | 54.47B | 49.22B | 53.96B | 53.15B | 49.11B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -1.30B | 471.00M | 447.00M | 3.03B | 6.74B | 6.90B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 5.54B | 4.81B | 4.85B | 7.64B | 10.20B | 9.90B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -7.46B | -4.55B | -4.99B | -5.85B | -4.48B | -340.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -426.62M | -1.77B | -680.00M | -3.67B | -477.00M | -10.90B |
ArcelorMittal Technical Analysis
Positive
62.06
Price Trends
57.51
Positive
56.78
Positive
47.46
Positive
Market Momentum
1.53
Negative
61.46
Neutral
81.74
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 62.06 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 60.62, above the 50-day MA of 57.51, and above the 200-day MA of 47.46, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.53 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.46 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 81.74 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MT.
ArcelorMittal Risk Analysis
ArcelorMittal disclosed 37 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. ArcelorMittal reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
ArcelorMittal Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $18.73B | 14.73 | 11.18% | 1.63% | 8.49% | 9.68% | |
73 Outperform | $34.62B | 16.15 | 15.25% | 1.11% | 10.44% | 23.34% | |
69 Neutral | $9.22B | 9.25 | 4.74% | 7.02% | -11.93% | ― | |
67 Neutral | $52.84B | 13.28 | 11.16% | 1.34% | 12.27% | 79.72% | |
63 Neutral | $49.03B | 17.20 | 5.35% | 1.03% | -1.31% | 149.74% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
51 Neutral | $21.77B | 25,672.37 | 1.48% | 3.22% | -5.70% | -6.30% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
MT
ArcelorMittal
66.08
36.02
119.80%
NUE
Nucor
232.00
125.13
117.09%
PKX
POSCO
74.52
31.77
74.32%
RS
Reliance Steel
367.00
79.69
27.73%
STLD
Steel Dynamics
240.03
116.38
94.13%
TX
Ternium SA
46.99
20.79
79.32%
ArcelorMittal Corporate Events
ArcelorMittal Sells 10% Vallourec Stake to Fund $667 Million Share Buyback
May 19, 2026
On May 19, 2026, ArcelorMittal announced it had priced and completed a secondary offering of approximately 23.9 million shares in Vallourec, equal to about 10% of Vallourec’s share capital, at €24.00 per share, raising roughly $667 mil...
ArcelorMittal Establishes New $1 Billion 5.375% Notes Due 2036 via Sixth Supplemental Indenture
May 19, 2026
On May 19, 2026, ArcelorMittal filed a Form 6-K in the United States announcing the execution of a Sixth Supplemental Indenture under its existing senior indenture, enabling the issuance of a new series of U.S.$1 billion 5.375% senior notes due 20...
ArcelorMittal Reports Management Share Transaction Under EU Market Abuse Rules
May 14, 2026
On May 12, 2026, ArcelorMittal announced that a notification of a share transaction by a designated person, such as a director or executive officer, had been filed in line with EU Market Abuse Regulations. The disclosure is available via the Luxem...
ArcelorMittal Prices $1 Billion 2036 Dollar Notes Under New Underwriting Deal
May 13, 2026
On May 12, 2026, ArcelorMittal entered into an underwriting agreement to issue $1 billion of 5.375% notes due 2036 under its existing U.S. shelf registration, with J.P. Morgan Securities acting as representative for a syndicate of global banks. Th...
ArcelorMittal Prices US$1 Billion 5.375% Notes Due 2036
May 13, 2026
On 12 May 2026, ArcelorMittal priced a US$1 billion bond offering of 5.375% notes maturing on 19 May 2036, with net proceeds of about US$987.1 million earmarked for general corporate purposes. The transaction, announced on 13 May 2026 and expected...
ArcelorMittal Posts Resilient Q1 2026 Results as European Policy Shift Bolsters Outlook
May 12, 2026
ArcelorMittal reported resilient first-quarter 2026 results on April 30, 2026, with net income of $0.6 billion and basic earnings per share of $0.76, supported by structurally improved margins and diversified market exposure. The company delivered...
ArcelorMittal Shareholders Back All Proposals at May 5 General Meetings
May 6, 2026
On May 5, 2026, ArcelorMittal held its Annual General Meeting and Extraordinary General Meeting in Luxembourg, where shareholders approved all resolutions with a strong majority, with 82.28% of voting rights represented. The meetings endorsed a di...
ArcelorMittal Posts Strong Q1 2026 and Positions for European Market Upswing
Apr 30, 2026
On April 30, 2026, ArcelorMittal reported resilient first‑quarter 2026 results, with EBITDA per tonne rising to $131, net income of $0.6 billion and record iron ore production and shipments in Liberia. The company highlighted a sharp improve...
ArcelorMittal’s 2025 Sustainability Report Highlights Safety Gains and Deep Emissions Cuts
Apr 23, 2026
On April 23, 2026, ArcelorMittal released its 2025 Sustainability Report, highlighting progress toward safer, lower-carbon and more responsible steelmaking across its global operations. The report, prepared under leading sustainability frameworks,...
ArcelorMittal Calls May 5, 2026 Shareholder Meetings, Proposes Board Changes and Capital Powers
Apr 3, 2026
On April 3, 2026, ArcelorMittal announced it has published the convening notice for its Annual General Meeting and Extraordinary General Meeting of shareholders, both scheduled for May 5, 2026, in Luxembourg. Shareholders of record as of April 21,...
ArcelorMittal Publishes 2025 Statutory Financial Statements for Parent Company
Mar 30, 2026
On March 27, 2026, ArcelorMittal announced that it had published the parent company’s statutory financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2025. The statements have been filed with the electronic database of the Luxembourg Stock Ex...
ArcelorMittal Centralizes Management Share Deal Disclosures Under EU Market Abuse Rules
Mar 17, 2026
On March 17, 2026, ArcelorMittal announced that notifications of share transactions carried out by its designated persons, including directors and executive officers, are now available through the Luxembourg Stock Exchange’s OAM database and...
ArcelorMittal Files 2025 Annual Reports and Details Capital Returns, Shareholder Buyback Deal
Mar 10, 2026
On 6 March 2026 ArcelorMittal filed its 2025 Annual Report on Form 20‑F with the U.S. SEC and published its 2025 annual report in Luxembourg, making audited financial statements and detailed disclosures available to investors and regulators....
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.