United States Steel (X) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $12.42B
• Dividend Yield: 0.36%
• Average Volume (3M): 10.65M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 186.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.59
• Revenue Growth: -14.79%
• EPS Growth: -88.78%
• Country: US
• Employees: 22,053
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 66
• Industry: Steel
• EPS (TTM): -0.39
• Shares Outstanding: 170,038,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 10,122,205
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 10,653,788
• PEG Ratio: -0.07
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.61
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 3.56
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.54
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.11
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.14
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 1.28
• 1Y Price Target: $49.25
• Price Target Upside: -10.19% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: $56.00 ▲(2.12%Upside)

The score reflects a mix of strong technical indicators and a stable balance sheet, countered by operational challenges and a high P/E ratio suggesting overvaluation. The potential positive impact of a strategic partnership is tempered by legal uncertainties.

Positive Factors

Earnings and Financial Performance

US Steel reported adjusted EBITDA of $172m, beating estimates and prior guidance due to better-than-expected results in the Flat Rolled and European operations.

Investment and Modernization

Nippon will invest $14B in US Steel, including significant funds to modernize mills, expand mines, and build new facilities, which should create or save around 100,000 jobs.

Strategic Transformation

US Steel's transformation into a hybrid integrated/mini-mill producer positions the company better for the long term.

Negative Factors

Debt and Financial Burden

Net debt for US Steel increased to $3.56bn, which is more than three times the trailing twelve months EBITDA, due to elevated capital expenditures and a large working capital build.

Operational Challenges

US Steel's blast furnaces are required to run at full capacity for a minimum of ten years, which is viewed negatively for fundamentals over the medium- to long-term.

Partnership Complexity

A more complex partnership could lead to slightly less value for X shareholders.

United States Steel Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

United States Steel Corporation, commonly known as U.S. Steel, is a prominent integrated steel producer headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. The company operates across multiple sectors, primarily focusing on the production and sale of steel products. Its core products include flat-rolled and tubular steel products which are critical components in various industries such as automotive, construction, appliance, energy, containers, and packaging. U.S. Steel is committed to innovating in sustainable steel production and advancing technologies to meet the evolving needs of its customers.

How the Company Makes Money

U.S. Steel generates revenue primarily through the manufacturing and sale of steel products. The company's key revenue streams include the production and distribution of flat-rolled steel products, which are used extensively in the automotive and appliance industries, and tubular products, which serve the energy sector. Additionally, U.S. Steel engages in the sale of raw materials, such as iron ore and coke, which are essential in steelmaking. The company also enters into strategic partnerships and joint ventures to enhance its market reach and leverage technological advancements, contributing to its earnings. Moreover, U.S. Steel's focus on operational efficiency and cost management plays a significant role in maintaining profitability.

United States Steel Financial Statement Overview

Summary

The financial performance of U.S. Steel shows resilience despite challenges. The income statement reveals a decline in revenue and a negative EBIT, pointing to operational inefficiencies, but a positive net income indicates some resilience. The balance sheet is strong with a low debt-to-equity ratio and solid equity, while cash flow analysis highlights negative free cash flow due to high capital expenditures, which needs attention.

Income Statement

The income statement shows a mixed performance. The company experienced a decline in revenue from $20.2 billion in 2021 to $15.2 billion in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), indicating a challenging market environment. Gross profit margin decreased, and the company reported a negative EBIT, reflecting operational inefficiencies. However, the net income remained positive at $97 million, showing some resilience. The company must focus on improving operational efficiency and revenue growth to enhance profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is relatively strong, with a significant stockholders' equity of $16 billion in TTM, providing a solid foundation. The debt-to-equity ratio is low, suggesting prudent financial leverage. The equity ratio is robust at 79.7%, indicating a strong capital structure. However, the company should focus on optimizing asset utilization to drive better returns.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals challenges as the free cash flow is negative at -$1.43 billion in TTM. Despite this, the operating cash flow remains positive, indicating the company's core operations are generating cash. The negative free cash flow, primarily due to high capital expenditures, requires attention to ensure sustainable cash generation.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
15.19B	15.64B	18.05B	21.07B	20.27B	9.74B
	Gross Profit
1.10B	1.58B	2.25B	4.29B	5.74B	183.00M
	EBIT
-107.00M	240.00M	1.90B	3.31B	4.44B	-823.00M
	EBITDA
1.06B	1.38B	2.04B	4.21B	5.45B	-384.00M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
97.00M	384.00M	895.00M	2.52B	4.17B	-1.17B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
594.00M	1.37B	2.95B	3.50B	2.52B	1.99B
	Total Assets
20.08B	20.23B	20.45B	19.46B	17.82B	12.06B
	Total Debt
150.00M	4.25B	4.34B	4.08B	4.03B	5.05B
	Net Debt
-444.00M	2.88B	1.39B	578.00M	1.50B	3.06B
	Total Liabilities
4.08B	8.79B	9.31B	9.15B	8.71B	8.18B
	Stockholders Equity
16.01B	11.35B	11.05B	10.22B	9.01B	3.79B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-1.43B	-1.37B	-476.00M	1.74B	3.23B	-587.00M
	Operating Cash Flow
573.00M	919.00M	2.10B	3.50B	4.09B	138.00M
	Investing Cash Flow
-1.99B	-2.28B	-2.57B	-1.68B	-840.00M	-563.00M
	Financing Cash Flow
-203.00M	-199.00M	-98.00M	-868.00M	-2.75B	1.58B

United States Steel Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 54.84
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For X, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 54.84 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 51.75, above the 50-day MA of 45.94, and above the 200-day MA of 39.28, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.64 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 69.60 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.07 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for X.

United States Steel Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NUE	73 Outperform	$28.20B	21.76	6.54%	1.74%	-10.88%	-66.97%
STLD	72 Outperform	$19.77B	17.60	13.08%	1.50%	-7.42%	-48.08%
MT	67 Neutral	$25.42B	18.06	2.60%	0.76%	-8.56%	68.36%
X	64 Neutral	$12.42B	186.15	0.86%	0.36%	-14.79%	-88.78%
TX	58 Neutral	$5.91B	73.52	-2.75%	11.95%	-10.20%	-152.18%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$2.01B	-1.27	-21.11%	5.15%	2.92%	-30.46%
CLF	48 Neutral	$3.79B	―	-17.57%	―	-15.00%	-423.14%

United States Steel Corporate Events

United States Steel Enters National Security Agreement

On June 13, 2025, United States Steel entered into a National Security Agreement with the U.S. Government, granting the government a ‘Golden Share’ that provides certain rights over non-ordinary course matters, including governance and trade. Additionally, the company executed supplemental indentures related to its Convertible Notes and Senior Notes, affecting the conversion and purchase rights of note holders, with significant implications for the company’s financial structure and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (X) stock is a Hold with a $39.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on United States Steel stock, see the X Stock Forecast page.

United States Steel Announces Historic Partnership

On June 13, 2025, United States Steel Corporation and Nippon Steel Corporation announced a historic partnership approved by President Trump, which aims to invest $11 billion in American steelmaking by 2028. This partnership, celebrated on May 30, 2025, is expected to protect and create over 100,000 jobs, and includes a national security agreement with the U.S. government, ensuring compliance with domestic production and trade commitments.

The most recent analyst rating on (X) stock is a Hold with a $39.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on United States Steel stock, see the X Stock Forecast page.

U.S. Steel and Nippon Steel Await Court Decision

On December 18, 2023, United States Steel Corporation entered into a merger agreement with Nippon Steel North America, but the transaction was prohibited by President Biden on January 3, 2025. Subsequently, a lawsuit was filed challenging the decision. Following a Presidential Memorandum by President Trump on April 6, 2025, the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) was directed to review the transaction, leading to ongoing discussions to resolve the issue. As of June 5, 2025, the U.S. Department of Justice filed a motion to extend the litigation abeyance, with the company and Nippon Steel consenting to the motion, pending court approval.

The most recent analyst rating on (X) stock is a Hold with a $35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on United States Steel stock, see the X Stock Forecast page.

United States Steel Approves Key Amendments at Annual Meeting

On May 6, 2025, United States Steel Corporation held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where several key decisions were made. The stockholders approved the amendment of the company’s Certificate of Incorporation to allow for limited officer exculpation and elected ten directors for a term expiring in 2026. Additionally, the amendment and restatement of the 2016 Omnibus Incentive Compensation Plan were approved, increasing the shares of common stock issuable by 9,730,000. The appointment of PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for 2024 was also ratified.

United States Steel Files Lawsuit Over Blocked Merger

On December 18, 2023, United States Steel Corporation entered into a Merger Agreement with Nippon Steel North America, Inc., and its subsidiaries. However, on January 3, 2025, President Biden issued an order prohibiting the merger, prompting the company and Nippon Steel Corporation to file a lawsuit challenging the order. Subsequently, President Trump directed a de novo review of the merger by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) to assess national security risks, with a recommendation expected by May 21, 2025.

United States Steel Projects Q1 2025 Financial Guidance

On March 20, 2025, United States Steel Corporation announced its first quarter 2025 financial guidance, projecting adjusted net earnings per diluted share between ($0.53) and ($0.49), and an adjusted EBITDA of approximately $125 million. The company highlighted improvements in its Mini Mill segment due to increased volumes from Big River Steel and Big River 2, while the European segment showed better pricing but faced subdued demand. The Tubular segment is under pressure from weak pricing, yet future improvements are anticipated. The company also praised President Trump’s tariff policies and its partnership with Nippon Steel, indicating a positive outlook for its future operations.