United States Steel (X) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $9.97B
• Dividend Yield: 0.45%
• Average Volume (3M): 7.45M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 28.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.88
• Revenue Growth: -13.48%
• EPS Growth: -56.94%
• Country: US
• Employees: 22,053
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 59
• Industry: Steel
• EPS (TTM): 1.49
• Shares Outstanding: 226,405,430
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,845,855
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 7,453,833
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.06
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.72
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $42.20
• Price Target Upside: -4.20% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6

United States Steel's overall stock score reflects a mixed financial performance with strong equity but operational and cash flow challenges. While technical indicators show positive momentum, the high P/E ratio and low dividend yield raise valuation concerns. The blocked merger with Nippon Steel adds strategic uncertainty, impacting growth opportunities. Investors should consider these factors carefully.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

US Steel reported adjusted EBITDA of $172 million, surpassing estimates due to strong results in Flat Rolled and European operations.

Future Earnings

US Steel anticipates significantly higher earnings and expects to be free cash flow positive.

Strategic Transformation

US Steel's transformation into a hybrid integrated/mini-mill producer is positioning the company better for the long term.

Negative Factors

Debt and Expenditures

Net debt for US Steel rose to $3.56 billion, exceeding three times the trailing twelve months EBITDA due to high capital expenditures and increased working capital.

Political Uncertainty

Significant uncertainty remains regarding the Nippon/US Steel transaction due to political factors, affecting the stock's recommendation.

Stock Rating

The current share price is nearing fair fundamental value, resulting in a downgrade from Outperform to Market Perform.

United States Steel Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

United States Steel Corporation produces and sells flat-rolled and tubular steel products primarily in North America and Europe. It operates through four segments: North American Flat-Rolled (Flat-Rolled), Mini Mill, U. S. Steel Europe (USSE), and Tubular Products (Tubular). The Flat-Rolled segment offers slabs, strip mill plates, sheets, and tin mill products, as well as iron ore and coke. This segment serves customers in the service center, conversion, transportation, automotive, construction, container, appliance, and electrical markets. The Mini Mill segment provides hot-rolled, cold-rolled, and coated sheets and electrical products. This segment serves customers in the automotive, appliance, construction, container, transportation, and service center markets. The USSE segment provides slabs, strip mill plates, sheets, tin mill products, and spiral welded pipes. This segment serves customers in the construction, container, appliance and electrical, service center, conversion, oil, gas, and petrochemical markets. The Tubular segment offers seamless and electric resistance welded steel casing and tubing products, as well as standard and line pipe and mechanical tubing products primarily to customers in the oil, gas, and petrochemical markets. The company also engages in the real estate business. United States Steel Corporation was founded in 1901 and is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

How the Company Makes Money

U.S. Steel generates revenue primarily through the sale of steel products. The company's key revenue streams include flat-rolled steel, tubular products, and the sale of raw materials like coke and iron ore. U.S. Steel's integrated steelmaking process allows it to produce a range of high-quality steel products, which are sold to customers in the automotive, construction, appliance, and energy sectors. Additionally, strategic partnerships and joint ventures, such as those in the mining and steel processing sectors, contribute to its earnings by enhancing operational efficiency and expanding market reach. The company's financial performance is also influenced by factors such as global steel demand, raw material prices, and trade policies.

United States Steel Financial Statement Overview

Summary

United States Steel shows a stable balance sheet with strong equity, but the income statement and cash flow statements indicate operational challenges and cash management issues. The company needs to focus on revenue growth and operational efficiency while managing capital expenditures to improve overall financial performance.

Income Statement

The income statement shows a mixed performance. The company experienced a decline in revenue from $20.2 billion in 2021 to $15.2 billion in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), indicating a challenging market environment. Gross profit margin decreased, and the company reported a negative EBIT, reflecting operational inefficiencies. However, the net income remained positive at $97 million, showing some resilience. The company must focus on improving operational efficiency and revenue growth to enhance profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is relatively strong, with a significant stockholders' equity of $16 billion in TTM, providing a solid foundation. The debt-to-equity ratio is low, suggesting prudent financial leverage. The equity ratio is robust at 79.7%, indicating a strong capital structure. However, the company should focus on optimizing asset utilization to drive better returns.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals challenges as the free cash flow is negative at -$1.43 billion in TTM. Despite this, the operating cash flow remains positive, indicating the company's core operations are generating cash. The negative free cash flow, primarily due to high capital expenditures, requires attention to ensure sustainable cash generation.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
15.64B	18.05B	21.07B	20.27B	9.74B
	Gross Profit
1.58B	2.25B	4.29B	5.74B	183.00M
	EBIT
240.00M	1.90B	3.31B	4.44B	-823.00M
	EBITDA
1.38B	2.04B	4.21B	5.45B	-384.00M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
384.00M	895.00M	2.52B	4.17B	-1.17B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.37B	2.95B	3.50B	2.52B	1.99B
	Total Assets
20.23B	20.45B	19.46B	17.82B	12.06B
	Total Debt
4.25B	4.34B	4.08B	4.03B	5.05B
	Net Debt
2.88B	1.39B	578.00M	1.50B	3.06B
	Total Liabilities
8.79B	9.31B	9.15B	8.71B	8.18B
	Stockholders Equity
11.35B	11.05B	10.22B	9.01B	3.79B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-1.37B	-476.00M	1.74B	3.23B	-587.00M
	Operating Cash Flow
919.00M	2.10B	3.50B	4.09B	138.00M
	Investing Cash Flow
-2.28B	-2.57B	-1.68B	-840.00M	-563.00M
	Financing Cash Flow
-199.00M	-98.00M	-868.00M	-2.75B	1.58B

United States Steel Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 44.05
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For X, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 44.05 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 42.17, above the 50-day MA of 40.63, and above the 200-day MA of 37.99, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.79 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.90 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.35 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for X.

United States Steel Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MT	73 Outperform	$25.14B	18.03	2.60%	1.39%	-8.56%	68.36%
NUE	73 Outperform	$25.57B	13.10	6.54%	1.77%	-10.88%	-66.97%
STLD	73 Outperform	$20.23B	17.84	13.08%	1.39%	-7.42%	-48.08%
X	64 Neutral	$9.97B	28.18	0.86%	0.45%	-13.48%	-56.94%
TX	60 Neutral	$5.92B	73.52	-0.44%	10.29%	0.81%	-108.00%
Sector *	49 Neutral	$1.95B	-1.37	-21.20%	3.73%	0.84%	-29.84%
CLF	41 Neutral	$4.39B	―	-10.36%	―	-12.78%	-301.57%

United States Steel Corporate Events

United States Steel Files Lawsuit Over Blocked Merger

On December 18, 2023, United States Steel Corporation entered into a Merger Agreement with Nippon Steel North America, Inc., and its subsidiaries. However, on January 3, 2025, President Biden issued an order prohibiting the merger, prompting the company and Nippon Steel Corporation to file a lawsuit challenging the order. Subsequently, President Trump directed a de novo review of the merger by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) to assess national security risks, with a recommendation expected by May 21, 2025.

Spark’s Take on X Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, X is a Neutral.

United States Steel’s overall stock score reflects its financial volatility and strategic challenges. Despite strong technical indicators suggesting positive price momentum, the high P/E ratio and low dividend yield present valuation concerns. Moreover, the blocked merger with Nippon Steel adds uncertainty, impacting strategic growth opportunities. Investors should weigh these factors when considering the stock.

To see Spark’s full report on X stock, click here.

United States Steel Projects Q1 2025 Financial Guidance

On March 20, 2025, United States Steel Corporation announced its first quarter 2025 financial guidance, projecting adjusted net earnings per diluted share between ($0.53) and ($0.49), and an adjusted EBITDA of approximately $125 million. The company highlighted improvements in its Mini Mill segment due to increased volumes from Big River Steel and Big River 2, while the European segment showed better pricing but faced subdued demand. The Tubular segment is under pressure from weak pricing, yet future improvements are anticipated. The company also praised President Trump’s tariff policies and its partnership with Nippon Steel, indicating a positive outlook for its future operations.