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Nucor Corp. (NUE)
NYSE:NUE

Nucor (NUE) AI Stock Analysis

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NU

Nucor

(NYSE:NUE)

Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$132.00
▲(9.63%Upside)
Nucor's overall stock score is driven primarily by its solid financial foundation and positive earnings call outlook, which are tempered by current technical weaknesses and valuation concerns. The optimism surrounding future demand and strategic initiatives also contributes positively, but investors should be mindful of recent declines in profitability and cash flow strength.
Positive Factors
Growth Strategy
Nucor is executing on a multi-year organic growth plan that should support higher through-cycle profitability and free cash flow.
Steel Tariffs
Nucor remains well-positioned to benefit from the announced doubling of steel tariffs due to its relatively lower utilization rates and diversified product mix.
Valuation
The current valuation of NUE shares looks compelling, trading at a discount to its closest peer, with the risk/reward positively tilted.
Negative Factors
Capital Expenditure
Elevated capex remains a headwind, and the current capex does not account for any impact from tariffs, presenting some risk.
Stock Performance
NUE shares have delivered a relative underperformance YTD, and are currently trading at a discount to its closest peer, making the valuation compelling and the risk/reward positively tilted.

Nucor (NUE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Nucor Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNucor Corporation manufactures and sells steel and steel products. The company's Steel Mills segment produces hot-rolled, cold-rolled, and galvanized sheet steel products; plate steel products; wide-flange beams, beam blanks, and H-piling and sheet piling products; and bar steel products, such as blooms, billets, concrete reinforcing and merchant bars, and special bar quality products. It also engages in the steel trading and rebar distribution businesses. This segment sells its products to steel service centers, fabricators, and manufacturers in the United States, Canada, and Mexico. Its Steel Products segment offers hollow structural section steel tubing products, electrical conduits, steel racking, steel joists and joist girders, steel decks, fabricated concrete reinforcing steel products, cold finished steel products, steel fasteners, metal building systems, insulated metal panels, steel grating and expanded metal products, and wire and wire mesh products primarily for use in nonresidential construction applications. This segment also engages in the piling distribution business. The company's Raw Materials segment produces direct reduced iron (DRI); brokers ferrous and nonferrous metals, pig iron, hot briquetted iron, and DRI; supplies ferro-alloys; and processes ferrous and nonferrous scrap metal, as well as engages in the natural gas drilling operations. This segment sells its ferrous scrap to electric arc furnace steel mills and foundries for manufacturing process; and nonferrous scrap metal to aluminum can producers, secondary aluminum smelters, steel mills and other processors, and consumers of various nonferrous metals. It serves agriculture, automotive, construction, energy and transmission, oil and gas, heavy equipment, infrastructure, and transportation industries through its in-house sales force; and internal distribution and trading companies. Nucor Corporation was incorporated in 1958 and is based in Charlotte, North Carolina.
How the Company Makes MoneyNucor Corporation generates revenue primarily through the production and sale of steel and steel-related products. The company's key revenue streams include the sale of steel mills products, steel products, and raw materials. Nucor operates a highly integrated business model with operations spanning from steelmaking to the production of finished steel goods. The company benefits from its use of electric arc furnaces, which are more energy-efficient and environmentally friendly compared to traditional blast furnaces. Additionally, Nucor maintains strategic partnerships and long-term contracts with suppliers and customers to ensure a steady supply of raw materials and demand for its products. The company's focus on innovation and sustainability further enhances its competitiveness and profitability in the steel industry.

Nucor Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 28, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 3.29%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 17, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong future demand with significant backlog growth, positive impacts from trade policies, and robust capital investments. Despite a decrease in net earnings and challenges in the raw materials segment, Nucor's outlook remains optimistic with expectations of higher earnings in the next quarter.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Backlog Growth
Steel mill segments saw backlogs rise over 30% and steel products nearly 25% in the first quarter, suggesting strong future demand.
Significant Capital Investments
Nucor reinvested nearly $860 million into projects, with several expected to commence operations over the next two years, enhancing long-term growth potential.
Positive Earnings Guidance
Nucor expects earnings to be meaningfully higher in the second quarter compared to the first, driven by stable volumes and higher realized pricing.
Successful Implementation of Trade Policies
Reinstatement and broadening of Section 232 tariffs, along with preliminary anti-dumping duties, are expected to positively impact the U.S. steel industry and Nucor.
Expansion in High-Growth Markets
Nucor's acquisitions and organic growth investments have established platforms like overhead doors and racking, expected to generate significant EBITDA growth in the coming years.
Negative Updates
Decrease in Earnings
Net earnings decreased to $156 million in the first quarter, compared to previous periods, influenced by factors such as pre-operating and startup costs.
Challenges in Raw Materials Segment
The raw materials segment experienced a decrease in pre-tax earnings due to lower realized pricing for DRI and higher operating expenses in scrap processing operations.
Impact of Start-up Costs
Nucor incurred $170 million or $0.56 per share in pre-operating and startup costs, presenting near-term earnings headwinds.
Company Guidance
In the first quarter of 2025, Nucor generated an EBITDA of $696 million and reported an adjusted EPS of $0.77, despite weaker results compared to previous quarters. The company reinvested nearly $860 million, with around two-thirds allocated to projects set to begin operations over the next two years. Nucor returned nearly $430 million to shareholders and raised $1 billion in new senior notes at a weighted average coupon of 4.88%. The company also saw backlogs rise over 30% in its steel mill segments and nearly 25% in steel products. Looking ahead, Nucor expects second-quarter earnings to be significantly higher, driven by stable volumes and increased realized pricing, particularly in its steel mill segment.

Nucor Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Nucor presents a stable financial profile with strong operational efficiency and a robust balance sheet. However, recent declines in revenue growth and profit margins highlight areas needing attention. The company maintains a conservative leverage position, which is a positive sign for financial health. While cash flow generation has faced headwinds, prudent management of capital expenditures could mitigate potential liquidity issues. Overall, Nucor remains well-positioned but should focus on reversing recent declines in profitability and cash flow strength.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Nucor's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue decreased slightly compared to the previous year, indicating a challenge in maintaining revenue growth. The gross profit margin is healthy at approximately 10.5%, but it has decreased from prior years. The net profit margin shows resilience at 4.4%, although it has also declined from previous highs. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust, signifying strong operational efficiency despite top-line challenges.
Balance Sheet
80
Positive
Nucor's balance sheet highlights a solid financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.39, indicating conservative leverage. The equity ratio of 57.8% provides a strong buffer against liabilities. Return on equity (ROE) is solid, though lower compared to past performance, which could be due to the decline in net income. Overall, the balance sheet reflects financial stability and prudent capital management.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Cash flow analysis indicates some challenges. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong, showing efficient cash conversion. However, free cash flow has decreased significantly in the TTM period, reflecting increased capital expenditures. The free cash flow to net income ratio has also weakened, suggesting potential liquidity concerns if this trend continues. The company should monitor capital spending to ensure future cash flow stability.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
30.43B30.73B34.71B41.51B36.48B20.14B
Gross Profit
3.19B4.10B7.82B12.50B11.03B2.23B
EBIT
1.79B2.98B6.24B10.52B9.42B1.60B
EBITDA
3.38B4.49B7.69B11.53B10.23B1.79B
Net Income Common Stockholders
1.34B2.03B4.52B7.61B6.83B721.47M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
4.14B4.14B7.13B4.86B2.62B3.05B
Total Assets
33.94B33.94B35.34B32.48B25.82B20.13B
Total Debt
6.95B6.95B6.95B6.69B5.68B5.34B
Net Debt
3.39B3.39B565.97M2.41B3.32B2.70B
Total Liabilities
12.52B12.52B13.22B12.91B11.22B8.89B
Stockholders Equity
20.29B20.29B20.94B18.41B14.02B10.79B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
521.69M806.00M4.90B8.12B4.61B1.15B
Operating Cash Flow
3.88B3.98B7.11B10.07B6.23B2.70B
Investing Cash Flow
-4.02B-3.73B-2.50B-5.70B-2.87B-1.76B
Financing Cash Flow
-1.25B-3.06B-2.59B-2.51B-3.60B285.85M

Nucor Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price120.40
Price Trends
50DMA
115.16
Positive
100DMA
122.35
Negative
200DMA
132.22
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-1.25
Negative
RSI
60.47
Neutral
STOCH
42.86
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NUE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 120.4 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 114.48, above the 50-day MA of 115.16, and below the 200-day MA of 132.22, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.25 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.47 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 42.86 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NUE.

Nucor Risk Analysis

Nucor disclosed 17 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Nucor reported the most risks in the “Legal & Regulatory” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Nucor Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (50)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
RSRS
78
Outperform
$15.40B21.0010.27%1.57%-5.60%-35.05%
78
Outperform
$18.27B16.2713.08%1.53%-7.42%-48.08%
NUNUE
70
Outperform
$25.23B19.476.54%1.99%-10.88%-66.97%
PKPKX
68
Neutral
$13.09B21.541.64%3.53%-8.83%-43.85%
MTMT
67
Neutral
$24.96B18.002.60%1.46%-8.56%68.36%
XX
58
Neutral
$12.19B182.690.86%0.37%-14.79%-88.78%
50
Neutral
$2.01B-1.12-21.15%3.68%2.69%-30.65%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
NUE
Nucor
120.40
-43.70
-26.63%
MT
ArcelorMittal
30.62
4.32
16.43%
PKX
POSCO
44.31
-23.98
-35.11%
RS
Reliance Steel
301.91
9.30
3.18%
STLD
Steel Dynamics
135.71
5.13
3.93%
X
United States Steel
53.53
14.99
38.89%

Nucor Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Nucor Stockholders Approve 2025 Strategic Plan
Positive
May 14, 2025

On May 8, 2025, Nucor held its Annual Meeting where stockholders elected eight directors to serve until the 2026 meeting. The stockholders ratified PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for 2025 and approved the executive compensation for 2024. Additionally, the 2025 Plan was approved, indicating strong support for the company’s strategic initiatives.

The most recent analyst rating on (NUE) stock is a Buy with a $176.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nucor stock, see the NUE Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Nucor Reports Q1 2025 Financial Results
Neutral
Apr 28, 2025

Nucor Corporation reported its financial results for the first quarter of 2025, showing net earnings of $156 million and net sales of $7.83 billion. Despite a decline in earnings compared to the previous year, the company saw increased steel mill shipments and maintained a strong financial position with $4.06 billion in cash and short-term investments. Nucor’s strategic investments and diverse product offerings continue to position it as a leading North American steel producer, with expectations for improved earnings in the second quarter of 2025 across all segments.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.