Nucor (NUE) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $40.67B
• Dividend Yield: 1.34%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.54M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 23.6
• Beta (1Y): 1.16
• Revenue Growth: 1.66%
• EPS Growth: -31.25%
• Country: US
• Employees: 32,700
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Steel
• EPS (TTM): 1.73
• Shares Outstanding: 228,858,660
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,911,655
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,537,398
• PEG Ratio: -1.94
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.80
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.16
• P/FCF Ratio: -200.16
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.12
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.40
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 11.74
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 10.85
• 1Y Price Target: $165.46
• Price Target Upside: -6.90% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9
• EPS Forecast (FY): 11.85
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $35.64B

• Rating: 76 Outperform
• Price Target: $201.00 ▲(13.10% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by strong technical momentum and a favorable forward outlook from the earnings call (backlogs, shipment growth, and expected EBITDA/FCF improvement). Offsetting these positives are weaker cash-flow dynamics in the financial statements and a valuation that looks demanding (P/E 25.53) with only a modest dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Strong balance sheet and liquidity

Low leverage and a high equity ratio provide durable financial flexibility to fund growth projects, absorb cyclical steel demand swings, and support shareholder returns. This capital structure reduces refinancing risk and underpins multi-year investments and operational continuity.

Robust backlog supporting volumes

Material backlog increases across mills, products and structures create persistent near-term demand visibility, allowing higher planned shipments (~5% guide). Backlogs reduce revenue volatility and support pricing leverage as projects and infrastructure spending convert to steady volumes.

Incremental EBITDA from completed projects

Recently completed mills and lines are expected to add substantial recurring EBITDA as they ramp. This structural capacity and productivity uplift diversifies earnings sources, expands higher-value product exposure, and should sustainably raise company-wide margins once run rates are achieved.

Negative Factors

Weak free cash flow generation

Declining free cash flow and a negative FCF-to-income relationship signal limited cash available for reinvestment and distributions absent asset sales or higher margins. Over multiple quarters this undermines funding flexibility for capex, dividends, and buybacks without increasing leverage.

Elevated start-up costs and ramp risk

Large greenfield and complex project costs raise execution risk and extend payback horizons. If new mills or lines underperform during ramp, margin dilution and additional capital needs could persist beyond 2026, delaying the anticipated EBITDA and cash-flow benefits from these investments.

Exposure to interest-rate-sensitive end markets

Meaningful exposure to cyclical, rate-sensitive sectors like automotive and housing creates structural demand volatility. Sustained weakness in these end markets can cap volume and margin recovery even if infrastructure and industrial segments are strong, limiting long-term revenue resilience.

Nucor Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Nucor Corporation manufactures and sells steel and steel products. The company's Steel Mills segment produces hot-rolled, cold-rolled, and galvanized sheet steel products; plate steel products; wide-flange beams, beam blanks, and H-piling and sheet piling products; and bar steel products, such as blooms, billets, concrete reinforcing and merchant bars, and special bar quality products. It also engages in the steel trading and rebar distribution businesses. This segment sells its products to steel service centers, fabricators, and manufacturers in the United States, Canada, and Mexico. Its Steel Products segment offers hollow structural section steel tubing products, electrical conduits, steel racking, steel joists and joist girders, steel decks, fabricated concrete reinforcing steel products, cold finished steel products, steel fasteners, metal building systems, insulated metal panels, steel grating and expanded metal products, and wire and wire mesh products primarily for use in nonresidential construction applications. This segment also engages in the piling distribution business. The company's Raw Materials segment produces direct reduced iron (DRI); brokers ferrous and nonferrous metals, pig iron, hot briquetted iron, and DRI; supplies ferro-alloys; and processes ferrous and nonferrous scrap metal, as well as engages in the natural gas drilling operations. This segment sells its ferrous scrap to electric arc furnace steel mills and foundries for manufacturing process; and nonferrous scrap metal to aluminum can producers, secondary aluminum smelters, steel mills and other processors, and consumers of various nonferrous metals. It serves agriculture, automotive, construction, energy and transmission, oil and gas, heavy equipment, infrastructure, and transportation industries through its in-house sales force; and internal distribution and trading companies. Nucor Corporation was incorporated in 1958 and is based in Charlotte, North Carolina.

How the Company Makes Money

Nucor generates revenue primarily through the sale of steel and steel products, with key revenue streams including the production of rebar, sheet steel, and structural steel. The company operates a highly efficient production model that focuses on using recycled scrap steel as a primary input, allowing it to minimize costs and capitalize on fluctuating scrap prices. Nucor benefits from strong relationships with suppliers and customers in various industries, including construction, automotive, and energy. Additionally, the company's decentralized management structure enables rapid decision-making and responsiveness to market changes, further enhancing its profitability. Factors contributing to its earnings include demand for steel in construction and manufacturing sectors, global steel pricing trends, and operational efficiencies from its advanced production technologies.

Nucor Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Results reflect a clear downcycle: profitability has cooled materially from 2021–2022 peaks and operating cash flow has fallen sharply, with free cash flow turning slightly negative in 2025. Offsetting this, the balance sheet remains comparatively resilient for the industry with moderate leverage and a stronger equity base.

Income Statement

Profitability has clearly cooled from the 2021–2022 peak: gross margin fell from ~30% (2021–2022) to ~23% (2023) and ~13% (2024), with net margin dropping from ~18–19% to ~6.6% in 2024. Revenue has been volatile (declines in 2023 and 2024, followed by a modest rebound in 2025), reflecting the cyclical steel environment. The positive is that earnings remain solidly positive and 2025 shows slight top-line improvement, but overall margins and earnings power are well below peak-cycle levels.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks manageable and fairly stable: debt-to-equity has generally improved versus 2020 (~0.50) and sits around the low-to-mid 0.30s in 2023–2024. Equity has grown materially since 2020, supporting balance sheet resilience through the cycle. Returns on equity were exceptionally strong in 2021–2022, but have stepped down meaningfully by 2024 as profitability normalized—still, the capital structure appears conservatively positioned for the industry.

Cash Flow

Cash generation has weakened from the very strong 2021–2023 period: operating cash flow fell sharply from ~10.1B (2022) and ~7.1B (2023) to ~4.0B (2024) and ~3.2B (2025). Free cash flow turned negative in 2025 (-0.2B) after being positive in prior years, and free cash flow relative to net income in 2024 was modest (~20%), pointing to lower cash conversion in the latest annual period. Strength remains in the company’s historical ability to generate substantial cash in upcycles, but the most recent trend signals tighter cushion.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	32.49B	30.73B	34.71B	41.51B	36.48B
Gross Profit	3.88B	4.10B	7.82B	12.50B	11.03B
EBITDA	4.11B	4.49B	7.69B	11.57B	10.23B
Net Income	1.74B	2.03B	4.52B	7.61B	6.83B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	35.10B	33.94B	35.34B	32.48B	25.82B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.70B	4.14B	7.13B	4.86B	2.62B
Total Debt	7.12B	6.95B	6.84B	6.69B	5.68B
Total Liabilities	12.98B	12.52B	13.22B	12.91B	11.22B
Stockholders Equity	20.94B	20.29B	20.94B	18.41B	14.02B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-188.00M	806.00M	4.90B	8.12B	4.61B
Operating Cash Flow	3.23B	3.98B	7.11B	10.07B	6.23B
Investing Cash Flow	-3.23B	-3.73B	-2.50B	-5.70B	-2.87B
Financing Cash Flow	-1.31B	-3.06B	-2.59B	-2.51B	-3.60B

Nucor Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 177.72
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NUE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 177.72 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 172.95, above the 50-day MA of 165.22, and above the 200-day MA of 140.92, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 4.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 59.46 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 63.81 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NUE.

Nucor Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NUE	76 Outperform	$40.67B	23.63	8.44%	1.34%	1.66%	-31.25%
RS	74 Outperform	$17.23B	24.10	9.94%	1.63%	-0.88%	-25.15%
MT	71 Outperform	$40.61B	16.41	4.72%	1.03%	-4.51%	―
STLD	68 Neutral	$26.22B	22.47	13.25%	1.11%	-1.49%	-31.82%
CMC	67 Neutral	$8.53B	19.81	10.51%	1.02%	-1.61%	-81.36%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
PKX	61 Neutral	$18.03B	54.11	0.78%	3.22%	-8.97%	-67.03%

Nucor Corporate Events

Nucor Announces Q4 2025 Earnings and Dividend Declaration

On January 26, 2026, Nucor reported fourth-quarter 2025 net earnings attributable to shareholders of $378 million, or $1.64 per diluted share, on net sales of $7.69 billion, with adjusted net earnings of $400 million, or $1.73 per diluted share, after excluding impairment charges tied to closures or repurposing in the steel products segment and asset impairments in steel mills. Segment results showed weaker earnings versus the third quarter as steel mills, steel products and raw materials were all hit by lower volumes, margin compression and scheduled outages, though full-year figures highlighted ongoing profitability and contributions from new facilities in North Carolina, Arizona, Alabama and Indiana that came online in 2025. The company ended the year with $2.70 billion in cash and short-term investments, an undrawn $2.25 billion revolver and sector-leading investment-grade credit ratings, while returning about $1.2 billion to shareholders through buybacks and dividends, including a declared $0.56 per share quarterly dividend payable in February 2026; management signaled confidence for an earnings rebound in the first quarter of 2026 across all operating segments, led by higher volumes and pricing at steel mills and stronger demand supported by robust backlogs and supportive U.S. industrial policy.

The most recent analyst rating on (NUE) stock is a Hold with a $197.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nucor stock, see the NUE Stock Forecast page.

Nucor Announces Leadership Transition with COO Retirement

On December 2, 2025, Nucor Corporation announced the retirement of David A. Sumoski, Chief Operating Officer, effective June 13, 2026. Sumoski, who has been with Nucor since 1995, will step down from his COO role on January 1, 2026, and continue as Executive Vice President until his retirement. Concurrently, Stephen D. Laxton, the current Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President, will be promoted to President and COO, effective January 1, 2026. This leadership transition is part of Nucor’s strategic succession planning, ensuring a seamless transition of responsibilities.

The most recent analyst rating on (NUE) stock is a Buy with a $166.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nucor stock, see the NUE Stock Forecast page.