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Nucor
(NYSE:NUE)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$281.00
â–²(43.46% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/20/26
The score is driven by strong technical momentum and a supportive earnings outlook (higher guided earnings, record shipments, and backlog growth). This is balanced by only mid-cycle financial performance with materially compressed margins and, most importantly, weaker and inconsistent free cash flow generation that reduces near-term quality of shareholder-return capacity.
Positive Factors
Strong balance sheet / controlled leverage
Nucor’s low leverage and rising equity provide lasting financial flexibility to fund capital projects, weather cyclical downturns, and sustain shareholder returns. A conservative capital structure reduces refinancing risk and supports disciplined capex and buyback programs over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Weak and inconsistent free cash flow
Inconsistent FCF constrains the company’s ability to fund large capex, sustain buybacks, or buffer margin shocks. Even with positive operating cash flows, weaker cash conversion raises the risk of volatile shareholder returns and limits flexibility if higher reinvestment or working‑capital needs persist.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong balance sheet / controlled leverage
Nucor’s low leverage and rising equity provide lasting financial flexibility to fund capital projects, weather cyclical downturns, and sustain shareholder returns. A conservative capital structure reduces refinancing risk and supports disciplined capex and buyback programs over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Nucor Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Earnings Before Tax by Segment
Highlights profitability across different business segments, indicating which areas are driving earnings and where there might be challenges or opportunities for growth.
Highlights profitability across different business segments, indicating which areas are driving earnings and where there might be challenges or opportunities for growth.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyNucor (NUE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$50.27B
Dividend Yield1.34%
Average Volume (3M)1.58M
Price to Earnings (P/E)21.8
Beta (1Y)1.23
Revenue Growth12.27%
EPS Growth79.72%
CountryUS
Employees32,700
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustrySteel
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)10.11
Shares Outstanding227,740,950
10 Day Avg. Volume1,881,600
30 Day Avg. Volume1,583,793
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.95
Price to Book (P/B)1.80
Price to Sales (P/S)1.16
P/FCF Ratio-200.16
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.24
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.83
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit13.08
Enterprise Value/Ebitda12.66
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$271.00Price Target Upside38.36% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)15.28
Revenue Forecast (FY)$38.47B
Nucor Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Nucor Corporation is a prominent producer and distributor of steel and diverse steel-related products. Within its Steel Mills division, the company manufactures a comprehensive range of steel goods. These include various sheet steel types like hot...
How the Company Makes Money
Nucor makes money primarily by producing and selling steel and steel-based products, with revenue driven largely by shipment volumes and realized selling prices across its major segments. (1) Steel Mills: This is a core earnings engine where Nucor...
Nucor Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 27, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong operational execution and meaningful financial progress: record shipments, growing backlogs, substantial sequential earnings improvements across segments, robust liquidity and disciplined capital deployment. Growth projects are advancing toward commissioning and several recently completed projects have already turned EBITDA positive. Offsetting these positives are elevated pre-operating/start-up costs, margin pressure in some downstream products from higher input costs, energy cost uncertainty and pockets of softer end-market demand. On balance, the positives — including the earnings beat, record volumes, backlog growth, improved import dynamics and project momentum — outweigh the manageable near-term challenges.Positive Updates
Strong Q1 Financial Performance
Generated EBITDA of approximately $1.5 billion and net earnings of $743 million (EPS $3.23), beating the midpoint of guidance by nearly $0.50 per share.
Negative Updates
Pre-Operating and Start-Up Costs
Recorded $108 million of pre-operating and start-up costs in Q1, and management expects these costs to trend higher as commissioning and startup activity continues through 2026.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Q1 Financial Performance
Generated EBITDA of approximately $1.5 billion and net earnings of $743 million (EPS $3.23), beating the midpoint of guidance by nearly $0.50 per share.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Nucor guided to higher consolidated earnings in Q2 with improvement across all three operating segments—steel mills (stable volumes, increasing metal margins led by sheet and plate), Steel Products (higher volumes, stable pricing) and Raw Materials (higher DRI realizations)—and reiterated that 2026 shipments should grow by more than 5% (after ~6% growth in 2025) while U.S. steel consumption is expected to be flat to up ~2%. Key operating and balance-sheet metrics cited: Q1 EBITDA ≈ $1.5B and net earnings $743M ($3.23/share), record Q1 shipments of 7.0M tons, steel mills backlog of 4.7M tons (up 20% from year-end) and Steel Products backlog +9% from year-end; utilization ~87%; Q1 CapEx was $661M (≈40% toward the West Virginia sheet mill) with FY CapEx guidance of $2.5B; pre‑op/start‑up costs were $108M and will trend higher; cash ≈ $2.5B, liquidity $3.2B, debt/capital 24%; and the company returned $254M to shareholders in the quarter (~34% of Q1 net earnings) while targeting at least 40% of annual net earnings for shareholder returns—with management expecting 2026 earnings and free cash flow to be significantly higher than 2025 and the West Virginia mill commissioning complete by year‑end and commercial ramp in early 2027 (≈50% capacity by end‑2027).Nucor Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
41
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 34.16B | 32.49B | 30.73B | 34.71B | 41.51B | 36.48B |
| Gross Profit | 4.77B | 3.88B | 4.10B | 7.82B | 12.50B | 11.03B |
| EBITDA | 4.93B | 4.11B | 4.49B | 7.69B | 11.57B | 10.23B |
| Net Income | 2.33B | 1.74B | 2.03B | 4.52B | 7.61B | 6.83B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 35.63B | 35.10B | 33.94B | 35.34B | 32.48B | 25.82B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.48B | 2.70B | 4.14B | 7.13B | 4.86B | 2.62B |
| Total Debt | 7.12B | 7.12B | 6.95B | 6.84B | 6.69B | 5.68B |
| Total Liabilities | 13.09B | 12.98B | 12.52B | 13.22B | 12.91B | 11.22B |
| Stockholders Equity | 21.45B | 20.94B | 20.29B | 20.94B | 18.41B | 14.02B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 532.00M | -188.00M | 806.00M | 4.90B | 8.12B | 4.61B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 3.76B | 3.23B | 3.98B | 7.11B | 10.07B | 6.23B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.49B | -3.23B | -3.73B | -2.50B | -5.70B | -2.87B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.20B | -1.31B | -3.06B | -2.59B | -2.51B | -3.60B |
Nucor Technical Analysis
Neutral
195.87
Price Trends
236.72
Negative
206.38
Positive
180.11
Positive
Market Momentum
-3.73
Positive
35.99
Neutral
10.71
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NUE, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 195.87 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 245.57, below the 50-day MA of 236.72, and above the 200-day MA of 180.11, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -3.73 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.99 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.71 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for NUE.
Nucor Risk Analysis
Nucor disclosed 17 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Nucor reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Nucor Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $20.23B | 25.39 | 11.18% | 1.63% | 8.49% | 9.68% | |
70 Outperform | $31.78B | 23.52 | 15.25% | 1.11% | 10.44% | 23.34% | |
67 Neutral | $50.27B | 21.83 | 11.16% | 1.34% | 12.27% | 79.72% | |
63 Neutral | $46.91B | 16.67 | 5.35% | 1.03% | -1.31% | 149.74% | |
62 Neutral | $8.02B | 15.89 | 11.88% | 1.02% | 15.23% | 1535.96% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
41 Neutral | $15.35B | 29.19 | 1.48% | 3.22% | -5.70% | -6.30% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
NUE
Nucor
220.75
84.70
62.26%
MT
ArcelorMittal
63.40
31.08
96.16%
CMC
Commercial Metals Company
61.73
9.77
18.80%
PKX
POSCO
52.12
-4.88
-8.56%
RS
Reliance Steel
372.01
50.27
15.63%
STLD
Steel Dynamics
220.39
88.73
67.39%
Nucor Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Nucor Shareholders Back Board, Auditor and Executive Pay
Positive
May 19, 2026
At its annual meeting of stockholders held on May 14, 2026, Nucor Corporation shareholders elected all eight nominated directors to serve until the 2027 annual meeting, with each nominee receiving more votes in favor than withheld, underscoring br...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Nucor Posts Strong First-Quarter Results and Shareholder Returns
Positive
Apr 27, 2026
On April 27, 2026, Nucor reported a strong first-quarter performance, with net earnings attributable to shareholders rising to $743 million, or $3.23 per diluted share, on net sales of $9.50 billion, sharply higher than both the fourth quarter of ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.