Nucor (NUE) AI Stock Analysis

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Nucor

(NYSE:NUE)

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Outperform 74 (OpenAI - 4o)

Rating:74Outperform

Price Target:

$166.00

▲(12.33% Upside)

Nucor's overall stock score reflects a stable financial position with strong technical momentum and strategic growth initiatives. However, cash flow challenges and a modest valuation score slightly temper the outlook. The earnings call provided a positive sentiment, but upcoming seasonal challenges and market segment difficulties are notable risks.

Positive Factors

Innovative Production Technology

Nucor's use of electric arc furnace technology enhances efficiency and sustainability, providing a competitive edge in steel manufacturing.

Strategic Growth Initiatives

Ongoing expansion projects position Nucor for future growth, enhancing capacity and market presence in key segments.

Credit Rating Upgrade

An upgraded credit rating reflects financial strength and stability, improving access to capital and reducing borrowing costs.

Negative Factors

Cash Flow Challenges

Negative free cash flow indicates potential liquidity issues, limiting Nucor's ability to fund operations and growth initiatives.

Margin Compression

Margin compression in the steel products segment could impact profitability, necessitating cost management and pricing strategies.

Market Segment Challenges

Continued softness in key markets like residential construction may hinder demand for steel, affecting revenue growth.

Nucor (NUE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$33.82B

Dividend Yield1.49%

Average Volume (3M)1.54M

Price to Earnings (P/E)20.8

Beta (1Y)1.26

Revenue Growth1.66%

EPS Growth-31.25%

CountryUS

Employees32,700

SectorBasic Materials

Sector Strength58

IndustrySteel

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)2.63

Shares Outstanding228,858,660

10 Day Avg. Volume1,383,492

30 Day Avg. Volume1,539,063

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-0.26

Price to Book (P/B)1.37

Price to Sales (P/S)0.90

P/FCF Ratio34.51

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.10

Enterprise Value/Revenue1.16

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit10.17

Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.07

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$170.25

Price Target Upside15.21% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering9

EPS Forecast (FY)8.15

Revenue Forecast (FY)$32.70B

Nucor Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNucor Corporation (NUE) is a leading American steel producer headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina. Established in 1940, Nucor operates in the steel and steel products sector, focusing on the production of steel and steel-related products, including rebar, sheet steel, and merchant bars. The company is known for its innovative electric arc furnace technology, which allows for efficient and sustainable steel manufacturing. Nucor also engages in the recycling of scrap metal, positioning itself as a prominent player in the circular economy.

How the Company Makes MoneyNucor generates revenue primarily through the sale of steel and steel products, with key revenue streams including the production of rebar, sheet steel, and structural steel. The company operates a highly efficient production model that focuses on using recycled scrap steel as a primary input, allowing it to minimize costs and capitalize on fluctuating scrap prices. Nucor benefits from strong relationships with suppliers and customers in various industries, including construction, automotive, and energy. Additionally, the company's decentralized management structure enables rapid decision-making and responsiveness to market changes, further enhancing its profitability. Factors contributing to its earnings include demand for steel in construction and manufacturing sectors, global steel pricing trends, and operational efficiencies from its advanced production technologies.

Nucor Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Earnings Before Tax by Segment

Earnings Before Tax by Segment
Highlights profitability across different business segments, indicating which areas are driving earnings and where there might be challenges or opportunities for growth.

Chart InsightsNucor's Steel Mills segment experienced a significant decline in earnings before tax since its peak in 2021, reflecting potential challenges in market demand or pricing pressures. Meanwhile, the Steel Products segment shows a more gradual decline, indicating resilience despite broader industry pressures. The Raw Materials segment has been volatile, with recent improvements suggesting strategic adjustments. Corporate and Eliminations continue to weigh on overall performance, highlighting ongoing cost management challenges. Investors should monitor how Nucor navigates these pressures and any strategic shifts to stabilize earnings.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

Nucor Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 27, 2025

(Q3-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Feb 03, 2026

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

Nucor's earnings call highlighted strong financial performance and strategic growth, including significant achievements in the rebar market and data center segment. However, the outlook for Q4 is tempered by expected seasonal declines and challenges in certain market segments. Overall, while there are notable achievements, the upcoming challenges and expected declines balance the sentiment.

Q3-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Financial Performance

Nucor generated EBITDA of approximately $1.3 billion and earned $2.63 of EPS for the third quarter, exceeding guidance due to stronger-than-expected shipments and favorable corporate adjustments.

Record Rebar Shipments

Nucor's Bar Mill Group set quarterly rebar shipment records twice in 2025, driven by increased demand in nonresidential construction and infrastructure markets.

Credit Rating Upgrade

Nucor's long-term credit ratings were upgraded to A3 by Moody's, making it the only major North American steel producer with this distinction.

Expansion Projects on Track

Nucor is nearing completion of four major projects, including new sheet coating facilities and a new sheet mill in West Virginia, which is 2/3 complete.

Data Center Market Growth

Nucor is capitalizing on the 30% year-over-year growth in data center construction, supplying over 95% of steel products needed for these projects.

Trade Policy Support

Federal actions, including Section 232 measures, have reduced finished steel imports by nearly 11% year-to-date.

Negative Updates

Q4 Earnings Outlook

Nucor expects lower earnings in Q4 due to seasonal effects, fewer shipping days, and scheduled outages at DRI facilities.

Steel Mills Segment Decline

The steel mills segment's pretax earnings decreased by 6% from the prior quarter due to lower profitability in sheet and plate.

Challenges in Certain Markets

Softness in residential construction, consumer durables, heavy equipment, and agricultural machinery is anticipated to continue.

Steel Products Margin Compression

Despite a 4% increase in external shipments, the steel products segment saw a decline in pretax earnings due to less favorable product mix and higher costs.

Company Guidance

During Nucor's Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, the company reported generating approximately $1.3 billion in EBITDA and earning $2.63 per share, surpassing their guidance. Key contributors to this success included stronger-than-expected shipments from steel mills and favorable corporate adjustments. The company reinvested $807 million in growth projects nearing completion and returned about $230 million to shareholders via dividends and share buybacks, totaling nearly $1 billion or 72% of net earnings year-to-date. Nucor's long-term credit ratings were upgraded to A3 by Moody's, making them the only major North American steel producer with A- or A3 ratings from all three agencies. Strategic investments in projects such as new sheet coating facilities and the construction of a new sheet mill in West Virginia are on track, with several projects expected to be EBITDA positive by Q1 2026. The company's focus on data center construction, anticipated to grow by 30% in 2025, positions Nucor to supply over 95% of steel products required in these facilities. Despite anticipated lower earnings in Q4 due to seasonal effects and scheduled outages, Nucor remains optimistic about stable domestic steel demand in 2026.

Nucor Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Nucor's financial performance is stable with a strong balance sheet and moderate income statement metrics. However, cash flow challenges, particularly negative free cash flow, pose a risk. The company shows resilience in revenue growth, but declining margins and cash flow issues need attention to sustain long-term growth.

Income Statement

Positive

Nucor's income statement shows a moderate performance with a gross profit margin of 11.43% and a net profit margin of 5.18% for the TTM period. The revenue growth rate of 3.50% indicates a positive trend, although margins have decreased compared to previous years. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy, reflecting operational efficiency, but have also declined from historical highs.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet is strong with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.33, indicating prudent leverage management. The return on equity (ROE) of 8.11% for the TTM period is decent, though it has decreased from previous years. The equity ratio of 59.72% suggests a solid capital structure, providing stability.

Cash Flow

Positive

Cash flow analysis reveals challenges, with a negative free cash flow growth rate of -14.09% and a negative free cash flow to net income ratio. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 0.74 indicates adequate cash generation relative to net income, but the negative free cash flow is a concern.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	31.88B	30.73B	34.71B	41.51B	36.48B	20.14B
Gross Profit	3.64B	4.10B	7.82B	12.50B	11.03B	2.23B
EBITDA	4.08B	4.49B	7.69B	11.57B	10.23B	1.79B
Net Income	1.65B	2.03B	4.52B	7.61B	6.83B	721.47M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	34.78B	33.94B	35.34B	32.48B	25.82B	20.13B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.75B	4.14B	7.13B	4.86B	2.62B	3.05B
Total Debt	6.85B	6.95B	6.84B	6.69B	5.68B	5.34B
Total Liabilities	12.85B	12.52B	13.22B	12.91B	11.22B	8.89B
Stockholders Equity	20.77B	20.29B	20.94B	18.41B	14.02B	10.79B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-330.77M	806.00M	4.90B	8.12B	4.61B	1.15B
Operating Cash Flow	3.17B	3.98B	7.11B	10.07B	6.23B	2.70B
Investing Cash Flow	-3.47B	-3.73B	-2.50B	-5.70B	-2.87B	-1.76B
Financing Cash Flow	-1.73B	-3.06B	-2.59B	-2.51B	-3.60B	285.85M

Nucor Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price147.78

Price Trends

50DMA

140.41

Positive

100DMA

140.98

Positive

200DMA

131.21

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

1.97

Negative

RSI

58.01

Neutral

STOCH

66.00

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NUE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 147.78 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 145.43, above the 50-day MA of 140.41, and above the 200-day MA of 131.21, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.97 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.01 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.00 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NUE.

Nucor Risk Analysis

Nucor disclosed 17 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Nucor reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Nucor Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
STLD	77 Outperform	$22.70B	20.62	12.47%	1.29%	-1.49%	-31.82%
NUE	74 Outperform	$33.82B	20.77	7.98%	1.49%	1.66%	-31.25%
RS	73 Outperform	$14.13B	19.76	9.94%	1.72%	-0.88%	-25.15%
MT	71 Outperform	$30.80B	11.38	4.72%	1.18%	-4.51%	―
CMC	70 Neutral	$6.54B	79.48	1.99%	1.22%	-1.61%	-81.36%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
PKX	60 Neutral	$16.31B	50.65	0.78%	2.48%	-8.97%	-67.03%

* Basic Materials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

NUE

Nucor

148.67

3.98

2.75%

ArcelorMittal

39.27

14.05

55.71%

CMC

Commercial Metals Company

58.83

0.02

0.03%

PKX

POSCO

53.59

1.32

2.53%

Reliance Steel

266.31

-39.11

-12.81%

STLD

Steel Dynamics

155.07

16.55

11.95%

Nucor Corporate Events

Nucor’s Strong Q3 2025 Performance and Future Outlook

Oct 29, 2025

Nucor Corporation is a leading manufacturer of steel and steel products in North America, known for its extensive recycling operations and diverse product offerings, including carbon and alloy steel, metal building systems, and utility structures.

Nucor’s Earnings Call Highlights Robust Growth Amid Challenges

Oct 29, 2025

Nucor’s recent earnings call painted a picture of robust financial health and strategic growth, with notable achievements in the rebar market and data center segment. However, the sentiment was balanced by cautious optimism due to expected seasonal declines and challenges in certain market segments as the year progresses. Overall, while the company celebrates its successes, it remains vigilant about upcoming challenges.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures

Nucor Reports Q3 2025 Earnings Increase

Neutral

Oct 27, 2025

Nucor Corporation reported consolidated net earnings of $607 million for the third quarter of 2025, showing an increase from both the previous quarter and the same period in 2024. The company continues to expand its steelmaking capabilities and downstream operations while maintaining a strong balance sheet and returning significant capital to shareholders. Despite the positive earnings, Nucor anticipates lower earnings in the fourth quarter due to expected decreases in volumes and selling prices across its segments.

The most recent analyst rating on (NUE) stock is a Buy with a $151.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nucor stock, see the NUE Stock Forecast page.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 13, 2025