Nucor Corp. (NUE)
NYSE:NUE
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Nucor
(NYSE:NUE)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$170.00
▼(-8.66% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/21/26
The score is driven primarily by cooled profitability and weaker recent cash generation (including negative 2025 free cash flow), partially offset by a comparatively strong balance sheet. The latest earnings call adds meaningful support via improving 2026 guidance, strong backlogs, and expected project-driven EBITDA/FCF uplift, while technicals are mixed and valuation looks somewhat rich for a cyclical steel profile.
Positive Factors
Balance sheet resilience
Nucor’s conservative capital structure and improved equity base provide durable financial flexibility through steel cycles. Lower leverage versus 2020 and strong equity cushions reduce refinancing and liquidity risk, enabling continued investment in growth projects and shareholder returns over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Weakened cash generation (2025 negative FCF)
Negative free cash flow in 2025 reflects heavy growth investment and compressed operating cash conversion; if project ramps or margins lag expectations, cash strain could limit flexibility for further growth or shareholder returns and increases sensitivity to cyclical demand over coming quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Balance sheet resilience
Nucor’s conservative capital structure and improved equity base provide durable financial flexibility through steel cycles. Lower leverage versus 2020 and strong equity cushions reduce refinancing and liquidity risk, enabling continued investment in growth projects and shareholder returns over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Nucor (NUE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$42.39B
Dividend Yield1.34%
Average Volume (3M)1.39M
Price to Earnings (P/E)21.6
Beta (1Y)1.18
Revenue Growth1.66%
EPS Growth-31.25%
CountryUS
Employees32,700
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustrySteel
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.73
Shares Outstanding227,774,610
10 Day Avg. Volume1,241,490
30 Day Avg. Volume1,387,932
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.94
Price to Book (P/B)1.80
Price to Sales (P/S)1.16
P/FCF Ratio-200.16
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.13
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.48
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit12.39
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.45
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$195.13Price Target Upside4.84% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)12.41
Revenue Forecast (FY)$36.25B
Nucor Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Nucor Corporation manufactures and sells steel and steel products. The company's Steel Mills segment produces hot-rolled, cold-rolled, and galvanized sheet steel products; plate steel products; wide-flange beams, beam blanks, and H-piling and shee...
How the Company Makes Money
Nucor makes money mainly by producing and selling steel and steel products to customers across construction, manufacturing, energy, infrastructure, and other industrial end markets. Its core revenue streams are: (1) Steel mills: sales of commodity...
Nucor Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Earnings Before Tax by Segment
Highlights profitability across different business segments, indicating which areas are driving earnings and where there might be challenges or opportunities for growth.
Highlights profitability across different business segments, indicating which areas are driving earnings and where there might be challenges or opportunities for growth.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyNucor Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Overall the call conveyed strong strategic and operational momentum: record safety, significant backlog growth, major completed projects entering ramp-up, a favorable trade/import environment, and clear capital allocation discipline. Near-term headwinds included sequential Q4 earnings declines in certain segments, scheduled outages affecting raw materials, elevated start-up costs and a rare negative free cash flow in 2025 tied to heavy investment. Management expects lower CapEx in 2026, meaningful incremental EBITDA from completed projects (approximately $500 million), higher shipments (~5%) and improved free cash flow in 2026 as projects ramp.Positive Updates
Record Safety Performance
Lowest injury and illness rate in company history with eight consecutive years of improvement; the final two months of 2025 were the safest ever recorded, reinforcing commitment to becoming the world's safest steel company.
Negative Updates
Sequential Q4 Earnings Pressure in Steel Mills
Steel mills segment pretax earnings of $516 million in Q4, down roughly 35% from the prior quarter; shipment volumes declined ~8% quarter-over-quarter due to seasonality, fewer shipping days and planned/unplanned outages; lower pricing in sheet and plate offset bar/structural pricing gains.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Safety Performance
Lowest injury and illness rate in company history with eight consecutive years of improvement; the final two months of 2025 were the safest ever recorded, reinforcing commitment to becoming the world's safest steel company.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Nucor guided that 2026 should see domestic steel demand slightly up versus 2025 with Nucor steel mill shipments rising about 5% (Q1 consolidated earnings expected higher and volumes up in each segment), supported by very strong backlogs (steel mills backlog ~+40% YoY, steel products ~+15%, structural backlog >15% above its prior record) and lower import share (foreign finished-steel down from ~25% last year to 16% in Oct and an estimated 14% in Nov). Management expects several recently completed projects to be EBITDA‑positive within the year and cited roughly a $500 million incremental EBITDA benefit (including Brandenburg), while pre‑operating/start‑up costs remain elevated after $496 million in 2025. They guided 2026 CapEx of about $2.5 billion (≈2/3 growth‑oriented) with maintenance capital nearer $800 million annually (2025 CapEx was $3.4 billion), noted Lexington and Kingman should be EBITDA‑positive by end‑Q1 and fully ramped by year‑end, West Virginia mill on track for year‑end completion and Berkeley galvanizing commissioning mid‑2026. Finally, Nucor said it expects meaningfully higher free cash flow in 2026 after negative FCF in 2025, ended 2025 with $2.7 billion cash, returned $1.2 billion to shareholders in 2025 (~70% of net earnings), and finished 2025 with full‑year adjusted EPS $7.71 and EBITDA ≈$4.2 billion.Nucor Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 32.49B | 30.73B | 34.71B | 41.51B | 36.48B |
| Gross Profit | 3.88B | 4.10B | 7.82B | 12.50B | 11.03B |
| EBITDA | 4.11B | 4.49B | 7.69B | 11.57B | 10.23B |
| Net Income | 1.74B | 2.03B | 4.52B | 7.61B | 6.83B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 35.10B | 33.94B | 35.34B | 32.48B | 25.82B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.70B | 4.14B | 7.13B | 4.86B | 2.62B |
| Total Debt | 7.12B | 6.95B | 6.84B | 6.69B | 5.68B |
| Total Liabilities | 12.98B | 12.52B | 13.22B | 12.91B | 11.22B |
| Stockholders Equity | 20.94B | 20.29B | 20.94B | 18.41B | 14.02B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -188.00M | 806.00M | 4.90B | 8.12B | 4.61B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 3.23B | 3.98B | 7.11B | 10.07B | 6.23B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.23B | -3.73B | -2.50B | -5.70B | -2.87B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.31B | -3.06B | -2.59B | -2.51B | -3.60B |
Nucor Technical Analysis
Positive
186.12
Price Trends
174.93
Positive
169.02
Positive
154.32
Positive
Market Momentum
2.70
Negative
69.48
Neutral
96.04
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NUE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 186.12 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 167.82, above the 50-day MA of 174.93, and above the 200-day MA of 154.32, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.70 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 69.48 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 96.04 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NUE.
Nucor Risk Analysis
Nucor disclosed 17 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Nucor reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Nucor Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $16.67B | 20.53 | 10.27% | 1.63% | -0.88% | -25.15% | |
65 Neutral | $42.39B | 21.58 | 8.49% | 1.34% | 1.66% | -31.25% | |
65 Neutral | $45.24B | 11.03 | 5.87% | 1.03% | -4.51% | ― | |
64 Neutral | $7.30B | 21.86 | 11.88% | 1.02% | -1.61% | -81.36% | |
63 Neutral | $27.61B | 21.13 | 13.31% | 1.11% | -1.49% | -31.82% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
49 Neutral | $18.30B | 37.71 | 1.19% | 3.22% | -8.97% | -67.03% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
NUE
Nucor
186.12
76.96
70.50%
MT
ArcelorMittal
60.64
34.32
130.36%
CMC
Commercial Metals Company
65.79
24.43
59.06%
PKX
POSCO
63.14
18.01
39.91%
RS
Reliance Steel
322.20
48.49
17.72%
STLD
Steel Dynamics
190.57
73.41
62.65%
Nucor Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Nucor Announces Executive Vice President Daniel Needham’s Retirement
Neutral
Mar 3, 2026
On March 3, 2026, Nucor Corporation announced that Daniel R. Needham, its Executive Vice President of Commercial, will retire effective June 20, 2026, after nearly 26 years with the company. Needham, 60, joined Nucor in 2000 and advanced through a...
Executive/Board Changes
Nucor Names New Chief Financial Officer and EVP
Positive
Feb 20, 2026
On February 19, 2026, Nucor’s board elected John L. “Jack” Sullivan, then Vice President, Treasurer and General Manager of Investor Relations, as Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer and Executive Vice President, effective March 1,...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Nucor Announces Q4 2025 Earnings and Dividend Declaration
Positive
Jan 26, 2026
On January 26, 2026, Nucor reported fourth-quarter 2025 net earnings attributable to shareholders of $378 million, or $1.64 per diluted share, on net sales of $7.69 billion, with adjusted net earnings of $400 million, or $1.73 per diluted share, a...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.