Steel Dynamics (STLD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $19.39B
• Dividend Yield: 1.46%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.35M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 19.4
• Beta (1Y): 1.22
• Revenue Growth: -5.51%
• EPS Growth: -45.07%
• Country: US
• Employees: 13,000
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 65
• Industry: Steel
• EPS (TTM): 2.01
• Shares Outstanding: 147,204,590
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,385,481
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,354,690
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.15
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.30
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 10.38
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 11.79
• 1Y Price Target: $149.25
• Price Target Upside: 12.47% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8

• Rating: 74 Outperform
• Price Target: $148.00 ▲(11.53% Upside)

Steel Dynamics' overall stock score reflects a solid financial foundation with operational efficiency and strategic growth initiatives. The positive sentiment from recent earnings calls and corporate events supports the stock's outlook. However, challenges in revenue growth and free cash flow generation, along with neutral technical indicators, suggest a cautious but optimistic view.

Positive Factors

Earnings

Sinton's earnings improved despite some supplier-related challenges, with profitability expected to improve further.

Free Cash Flow

Steel Dynamics is well-positioned to generate above-peer free cash flow, with investments having the potential to add significant incremental EBITDA.

Negative Factors

Guidance

STLD shares are expected to underperform due to worse than expected guidance.

Tariffs

50% tariffs on pig iron sourced from Brazil, if implemented, could impact costs, although there is an ability to mitigate the impact by changing the raw material mix.

Steel Dynamics Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Steel Dynamics, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a steel producer and metal recycler in the United States. It operates through three segments: Steel Operations, Metals Recycling Operations, and Steel Fabrication Operations. The Steel Operations segment offers hot roll, cold roll, and coated steel products; parallel flange beams and channel sections, flat bars, large unequal leg angles, and reinforcing bars, as well as standard strength carbon, intermediate alloy hardness, and premium grade rail products; and engineered special-bar-quality products, merchant-bar-quality products, and other engineered round steel bars. The company also engages in turning, polishing, straightening, chamfering, threading, precision saw-cutting, and heat treating of bar products; and cutting to length, straightening, hole punching, shot blasting, welding, galvanizing, and coating of specialty products. Its products are used in construction, automotive, manufacturing, transportation, heavy and agriculture equipment, and pipe and tube markets. This segment sells directly to end-users, steel fabricators, and service centers. The Metals Recycling Operations segment purchases, processes, and resells ferrous and nonferrous scrap metals into reusable forms and grades. Its ferrous products include heavy melting steel, busheling, bundled scrap, shredded scrap, steel turnings, and cast-iron products; and nonferrous products comprise aluminum, brass, copper, stainless steel, and other nonferrous metals. This segment also provides transportation logistics, marketing, brokerage, and scrap management services. The Steel Fabrication Operations segment produces non-residential steel building components, such as steel joists, girders, trusses, and steel deck products. The company also exports its products. Steel Dynamics, Inc. was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Fort Wayne, Indiana.

How the Company Makes Money

Steel Dynamics generates revenue primarily through the sale of steel products, which constitutes the bulk of its income. The Steel Operations segment produces a variety of steel products sold to manufacturers in various industries, including automotive, construction, and energy. The company also benefits from its Metal Recycling segment, which earns revenue through the processing and resale of scrap metal. This segment not only provides a source of raw materials for the steel production process but also contributes to profitability through efficient recycling practices. Additionally, Steel Dynamics has established significant partnerships with various manufacturers and construction companies, enhancing its market position and facilitating steady demand for its products. Factors such as market pricing for steel, global demand, and operational efficiency also play crucial roles in the company’s earnings.

Steel Dynamics Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Steel Dynamics presents a mixed financial picture. The company shows operational efficiency and maintains a solid balance sheet with moderate leverage. However, revenue and net income growth have slowed, impacting profit margins. The negative free cash flow highlights potential challenges in managing liquidity and capital expenditures. Overall, while the company's financial foundation is strong, there are areas that require attention to sustain growth and profitability.

Income Statement

Steel Dynamics shows a mixed performance in its income statement. The TTM gross profit margin stands at 12.56%, indicating a reduction compared to previous years, primarily due to a decline in total revenue. The net profit margin for TTM is 6.07%, which is below the industry average. Revenue has shown a negative growth rate of 2.24% in the most recent TTM period compared to the previous annual period. However, the EBIT and EBITDA margins for the TTM are healthy at 7.53% and 11.05%, respectively, demonstrating operational efficiency despite revenue pressures.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Steel Dynamics is stable with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.43, reflecting moderate leverage and a strong equity position. The return on equity (ROE) for TTM is 11.75%, which is decent, although it shows a decline from previous years. The equity ratio remains strong at 57.03%, indicating a solid foundation of equity over liabilities. Overall, the balance sheet reflects financial strength, with ample equity supporting liabilities.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement indicates some challenges, particularly in free cash flow generation. The TTM free cash flow is negative at $-107 million, compared to positive free cash flow in previous periods, suggesting increased capital expenditures or reduced operating cash flow. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.50, showing strong cash generation relative to profits. However, the negative free cash flow to net income ratio indicates potential liquidity concerns if this trend continues.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	17.15B	17.54B	18.80B	22.26B	18.41B	9.60B
Gross Profit	2.15B	2.80B	4.05B	6.12B	5.36B	1.43B
EBITDA	1.89B	2.52B	3.73B	5.50B	4.61B	1.19B
Net Income	1.04B	1.54B	2.45B	3.86B	3.21B	550.82M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	15.55B	14.94B	14.91B	14.16B	12.53B	9.27B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	497.63M	737.27M	2.12B	2.26B	1.24B	1.37B
Total Debt	3.78B	3.23B	3.07B	3.07B	3.11B	3.10B
Total Liabilities	6.70B	5.99B	6.07B	6.06B	6.21B	4.92B
Stockholders Equity	8.86B	8.93B	8.87B	8.13B	6.30B	4.35B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-107.43M	-23.50M	1.86B	3.55B	1.20B	-211.02M
Operating Cash Flow	1.56B	1.84B	3.52B	4.46B	2.20B	987.03M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.29B	-1.30B	-1.97B	-1.88B	-999.42M	-993.26M
Financing Cash Flow	-647.89M	-1.35B	-1.78B	-2.20B	-1.33B	-7.05M

Steel Dynamics Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 132.70
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For STLD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 132.7 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 126.19, above the 50-day MA of 129.12, and above the 200-day MA of 128.16, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.53 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.97 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.97 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for STLD.

Steel Dynamics Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NUE	75 Outperform	$33.96B	27.00	6.28%	1.46%	-5.78%	-60.07%
RS	74 Outperform	$15.53B	21.49	9.93%	1.59%	-3.91%	-30.31%
STLD	74 Outperform	$19.39B	19.44	11.57%	1.46%	-5.51%	-45.07%
MT	69 Neutral	$27.60B	10.31	4.72%	1.45%	-4.51%	―
PKX	64 Neutral	$16.16B	45.12	0.92%	2.46%	-7.63%	-63.14%
X	64 Neutral		―		―	-14.79%	-88.78%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.31B	6.18	0.76%	2.94%	3.30%	-36.34%

Steel Dynamics Corporate Events

Steel Dynamics to Acquire Remaining Stake in New Process Steel

On August 19, 2025, Steel Dynamics announced its agreement to acquire the remaining 55% equity interest in New Process Steel, a metals solutions and distribution company based in Houston, Texas. This acquisition aims to enhance Steel Dynamics’ exposure to value-added manufacturing opportunities and strengthen its existing customer relationships. New Process Steel, which has a strong reputation for quality and customer service, operates multiple manufacturing locations in the U.S. and Mexico, and is Steel Dynamics’ largest flat roll steel customer. The transaction is subject to customary closing conditions and regulatory approvals.

Steel Dynamics Announces Q3 2025 Cash Dividend

On August 14, 2025, Steel Dynamics, Inc. announced a third quarter 2025 cash dividend of $0.50 per common share, payable to shareholders of record on September 30, 2025, with payment expected around October 10, 2025. This announcement reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to providing value to its shareholders and highlights its stable financial position within the industrial metals industry.

Steel Dynamics Projects Strong Q2 2025 Earnings Growth

On June 18, 2025, Steel Dynamics announced its second quarter 2025 earnings guidance, projecting earnings per diluted share between $2.00 and $2.04, compared to $1.44 in the first quarter and $2.72 in the previous year’s second quarter. The company’s steel operations are expected to see improved profitability due to expanded metal spreads and increased steel pricing, despite a $32 million noncash write-off. Metals recycling earnings are anticipated to remain steady, while steel fabrication earnings may decline due to increased raw material costs. The company also continues to advance its aluminum operations, with successful commissioning in Mississippi and Mexico, and plans to start shipping mid-2025. Additionally, Steel Dynamics repurchased $179 million of its common stock during the second quarter.