Steel Dynamics (STLD)
NASDAQ:STLD
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Steel Dynamics
(NASDAQ:STLD)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$200.00
▲(5.26% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/18/26
The score is anchored by generally healthy fundamentals (profitability and controlled leverage) but tempered by cyclical earnings/cash-flow variability. Near-term technicals are notably weak and valuation is only middling for a cyclical business, while management’s constructive guidance and recent positive corporate updates provide an offsetting support.
Positive Factors
Operational Scale & Utilization
Record shipments and above-industry utilization demonstrate durable scale advantages. Higher utilization (86% vs ~77% industry) supports better fixed-cost absorption, steadier through-cycle cash flow, and a competitive cost position that should persist absent major cyclical collapses.
Negative Factors
Cyclical Margin Sensitivity
Steel earnings remain highly cyclical and sensitive to metal prices and spreads. Compressed flat-rolled margins show that volume alone doesn’t insulate profitability; durable earnings predictability is limited by external price swings in scrap, finished steel and end-market demand.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Operational Scale & Utilization
Record shipments and above-industry utilization demonstrate durable scale advantages. Higher utilization (86% vs ~77% industry) supports better fixed-cost absorption, steadier through-cycle cash flow, and a competitive cost position that should persist absent major cyclical collapses.
Read all positive factors
Steel Dynamics (STLD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$27.53B
Dividend Yield1.11%
Average Volume (3M)1.15M
Price to Earnings (P/E)21.1
Beta (1Y)1.23
Revenue Growth-1.49%
EPS Growth-31.82%
CountryUS
Employees13,000
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustrySteel
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.82
Shares Outstanding144,882,400
10 Day Avg. Volume948,283
30 Day Avg. Volume1,149,973
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.12
Price to Book (P/B)2.80
Price to Sales (P/S)1.38
P/FCF Ratio49.94
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.13
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.70
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit12.99
Enterprise Value/Ebitda14.65
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$193.00Price Target Upside1.58% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)13.88
Revenue Forecast (FY)$21.26B
Steel Dynamics Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Steel Dynamics, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a steel producer and metal recycler in the United States. It operates through three segments: Steel Operations, Metals Recycling Operations, and Steel Fabrication Operations. The St...
How the Company Makes Money
Steel Dynamics generates revenue primarily by selling steel and steel-related products and services across three major areas: (1) Steel operations: The company sells produced steel products (including flat-rolled and long/structural products) to c...
Steel Dynamics Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Type
Breaks down revenue sources, providing insight into the diversity of income streams and potential vulnerabilities or growth areas.
Breaks down revenue sources, providing insight into the diversity of income streams and potential vulnerabilities or growth areas.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlySteel Dynamics Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 20, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized multiple material positives: record shipments, strong cash flow and adjusted EBITDA, robust liquidity, significant share buybacks, substantial progress and early profitability in the new aluminum platform, and outsized mill utilization versus peers. Key near-term challenges include compressed flat-rolled steel margins year-over-year, seasonal/planned outages that reduced Q4 production (~140–150k tons), working capital drag from aluminum ramp (~$155M impact in Q4), and normal commissioning/operational risks (including a limited Sinton transformer failure). On balance, the company conveyed confident execution, a improving free cash flow profile, and high conviction in long-term value creation despite manageable near-term startup and market headwinds.Positive Updates
Record Annual Steel Shipments
Steel Dynamics achieved record 2025 steel shipments of 13,700,000 tons, demonstrating strong volume execution and operational scale.
Negative Updates
Compressed Flat-Rolled Steel Margins
Full-year operating income from steel operations declined to $1,400,000,000 in 2025 from $1.6 billion in 2024 (≈ -12.5%), with compressed flat-rolled margins offsetting record shipments.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Annual Steel Shipments
Steel Dynamics achieved record 2025 steel shipments of 13,700,000 tons, demonstrating strong volume execution and operational scale.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided to continued strong cash generation and disciplined growth: 2026 CapEx is expected around $600M (2025 CapEx was $948M; sustaining CapEx ~$250–300M), liquidity remains >$2.2B and they target net leverage <2.0x through the cycle; combined through‑cycle EBITDA from Aluminum Dynamics (~$650–700M plus $40–50M omni), Sinton (~$475–525M) and four value‑add lines (~$50M each, ~ $200M) exceeds $1.4B; the Columbus aluminum mill shipped ~10,000 t in December (~20% of eventual capability), was EBITDA‑positive in December and is expected to approach ~90% utilization by year‑end 2026 (earlier than prior 75% view) with product‑mix optimization in 2H26 and full optimization in 2027; aluminum working capital reduced FY cash flow by ~ $50M and Q4 cash flow by ~ $155M; 2025 cash from operations was $1.4B, record steel shipments were 13.7M tons, Q4 hot/cold/coated shipments were 942k/122k/1,395k tons, flat‑rolled outages reduced production ~140–150k tons, and 2025 shareholder returns included $900M of buybacks (Q4 $240M) with $81M remaining authorization.Steel Dynamics Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
66
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 18.18B | 17.54B | 18.80B | 22.26B | 18.41B |
| Gross Profit | 2.36B | 2.80B | 4.05B | 6.12B | 5.36B |
| EBITDA | 2.11B | 2.52B | 3.73B | 5.50B | 4.61B |
| Net Income | 1.19B | 1.54B | 2.45B | 3.86B | 3.21B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 16.41B | 14.94B | 14.91B | 14.16B | 12.53B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 769.88M | 737.27M | 2.12B | 2.26B | 1.24B |
| Total Debt | 4.21B | 3.35B | 3.07B | 3.07B | 3.11B |
| Total Liabilities | 7.48B | 5.99B | 6.07B | 6.06B | 6.21B |
| Stockholders Equity | 8.96B | 8.93B | 8.87B | 8.13B | 6.30B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 501.51M | -23.50M | 1.86B | 3.55B | 1.20B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.45B | 1.84B | 3.52B | 4.46B | 2.20B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -974.96M | -1.30B | -1.97B | -1.88B | -999.42M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -294.31M | -1.35B | -1.78B | -2.20B | -1.33B |
Steel Dynamics Technical Analysis
Positive
190.00
Price Trends
184.52
Positive
176.45
Positive
156.14
Positive
Market Momentum
0.51
Negative
61.39
Neutral
81.77
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For STLD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 190 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 174.37, above the 50-day MA of 184.52, and above the 200-day MA of 156.14, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.51 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.39 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 81.77 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for STLD.
Steel Dynamics Risk Analysis
Steel Dynamics disclosed 19 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Steel Dynamics reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Steel Dynamics Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $16.67B | 20.53 | 10.27% | 1.63% | -0.88% | -25.15% | |
65 Neutral | $44.13B | 11.03 | 5.87% | 1.03% | -4.51% | ― | |
65 Neutral | $41.91B | 21.58 | 8.49% | 1.34% | 1.66% | -31.25% | |
63 Neutral | $27.53B | 21.13 | 13.31% | 1.11% | -1.49% | -31.82% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
61 Neutral | $7.27B | 21.86 | 11.88% | 1.02% | -1.61% | -81.36% | |
49 Neutral | $18.73B | 37.71 | 1.19% | 3.22% | -8.97% | -67.03% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
STLD
Steel Dynamics
190.00
71.20
59.93%
MT
ArcelorMittal
59.89
33.44
126.41%
CMC
Commercial Metals Company
65.57
24.19
58.45%
NUE
Nucor
184.00
74.42
67.92%
PKX
POSCO
63.53
17.90
39.23%
RS
Reliance Steel
322.18
47.27
17.20%
Steel Dynamics Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Steel Dynamics Announces Retirement of Two Long-Tenured Directors
Neutral
Mar 27, 2026
On March 25, 2026, Steel Dynamics directors Richard P. Teets, Jr. and Gabriel L. Shaheen notified the board that they intend to retire at the end of their current terms and will not stand for reelection at the May 6, 2026 annual meeting. The compa...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Steel Dynamics Issues Strong First-Quarter 2026 Earnings Outlook
Positive
Mar 18, 2026
On March 17, 2026, Steel Dynamics, Inc. issued first-quarter 2026 earnings guidance of $2.73 to $2.77 per diluted share, sharply above fourth-quarter 2025 earnings of $1.82 and prior-year first-quarter earnings of $1.44, reflecting broad-based ope...
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
Steel Dynamics Raises Quarterly Dividend, Signals Confidence Ahead
Positive
Feb 23, 2026
On February 20, 2026, Steel Dynamics, Inc. announced that its board of directors declared a first‑quarter 2026 cash dividend of $0.53 per common share, a 6% increase over the company’s 2025 quarterly rate. The dividend will be paid on ...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Steel Dynamics Advances Bid for BlueScope’s North American Assets
Positive
Feb 17, 2026
On February 17, 2026, SGH Ltd and Steel Dynamics, Inc. confirmed they had jointly submitted a revised non-binding indicative offer to acquire 100% of Australia’s BlueScope Steel Ltd at A$32.35 per share in cash, valuing the target’s eq...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.