Steel Dynamics (STLD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $25.35B
• Dividend Yield: 1.11%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.19M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 23.0
• Beta (1Y): 1.24
• Revenue Growth: -1.49%
• EPS Growth: -31.82%
• Country: US
• Employees: 13,000
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Steel
• EPS (TTM): 2.74
• Shares Outstanding: 146,034,870
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,364,036
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,185,181
• PEG Ratio: -0.35
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.98
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.01
• P/FCF Ratio: -754.32
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.93
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.34
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 10.26
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 11.70
• 1Y Price Target: $182.30
• Price Target Upside: 5.02% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10
• EPS Forecast (FY): 13.5
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $20.43B

• Rating: 74 Outperform
• Price Target: $192.00 ▲(10.61% Upside)

Score is driven primarily by solid underlying financial stability (notably balance sheet strength) but held back by declining margins and sharply weaker free cash flow. Technicals add support via an intact uptrend with neutral momentum, while valuation is a relative headwind (P/E 22.8, ~1.16% yield). Recent earnings commentary and corporate actions are net positive, though aluminum startup losses and near-term maintenance impacts temper the outlook.

Positive Factors

Balance Sheet Strength

A low debt-to-equity ratio and more than $2.2B of liquidity provide lasting financial flexibility. This capital strength reduces refinancing and covenant risk, supports capital expenditure, acquisitions and share repurchases, and cushions the business through cyclical downturns over the next 2–6 months.

Scale and Operating Footprint

Record shipments reflect durable scale and strong production capability, improving fixed-cost absorption and bargaining power with suppliers and customers. Persistent high volumes support operating leverage, stable throughput and market share resilience across construction, automotive and energy end markets.

Strategic Diversification & M&A

Acquiring New Process Steel and expanding into value-added manufacturing deepens customer relationships and margins over time. Coupled with early aluminum qualification and product certifications, these structural moves diversify revenue streams and create platforms for higher-margin distribution and fabrication growth.

Negative Factors

Free Cash Flow Weakness

Sharp deterioration in free cash flow limits the firm's ability to fund capex, dividends, and M&A without tapping liquidity. Even with solid operating cash flow, weak FCF conversion raises the risk that cash returns or reinvestment will be constrained if capex or working capital needs persist over the medium term.

Declining Margins

Eroding gross and net margins indicate sustained pressure on pricing and cost management. If input cost improvements or pricing power don't reassert, lower margins will compress profitability and return metrics, reducing the pace at which the company can rebuild ROE and fund strategic initiatives.

Aluminum Startup Losses & Operational Headwinds

Significant aluminum startup losses, accelerated certification costs and noted maintenance outages pose structural execution risk. These factors can extend the timeline to profitable diversification, increase near-term cash burn, and combine with coated-product volume/pricing headwinds to delay margin recovery.

Steel Dynamics Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Steel Dynamics, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a steel producer and metal recycler in the United States. It operates through three segments: Steel Operations, Metals Recycling Operations, and Steel Fabrication Operations. The Steel Operations segment offers hot roll, cold roll, and coated steel products; parallel flange beams and channel sections, flat bars, large unequal leg angles, and reinforcing bars, as well as standard strength carbon, intermediate alloy hardness, and premium grade rail products; and engineered special-bar-quality products, merchant-bar-quality products, and other engineered round steel bars. The company also engages in turning, polishing, straightening, chamfering, threading, precision saw-cutting, and heat treating of bar products; and cutting to length, straightening, hole punching, shot blasting, welding, galvanizing, and coating of specialty products. Its products are used in construction, automotive, manufacturing, transportation, heavy and agriculture equipment, and pipe and tube markets. This segment sells directly to end-users, steel fabricators, and service centers. The Metals Recycling Operations segment purchases, processes, and resells ferrous and nonferrous scrap metals into reusable forms and grades. Its ferrous products include heavy melting steel, busheling, bundled scrap, shredded scrap, steel turnings, and cast-iron products; and nonferrous products comprise aluminum, brass, copper, stainless steel, and other nonferrous metals. This segment also provides transportation logistics, marketing, brokerage, and scrap management services. The Steel Fabrication Operations segment produces non-residential steel building components, such as steel joists, girders, trusses, and steel deck products. The company also exports its products. Steel Dynamics, Inc. was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Fort Wayne, Indiana.

How the Company Makes Money

Steel Dynamics generates revenue primarily through the sale of steel products and metal recycling services. The Steel Operations segment, which includes the production of flat-rolled, long, and structural steel products, constitutes the majority of the company's revenue. The company benefits from a diversified customer base across various industries, including construction, automotive, and energy. Key revenue streams include the sale of finished steel products, which are sold to manufacturers and distributors, and the processing of scrap metal, which is sourced from industrial and commercial clients. Additionally, Steel Dynamics has established partnerships with suppliers and customers that enhance its operational efficiency and market reach, contributing to stable earnings. Market demand for steel products, pricing fluctuations in raw materials, and operational efficiencies are significant factors influencing the company's profitability.

Steel Dynamics Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Steel Dynamics demonstrates a stable financial position with a strong balance sheet and moderate income statement performance. However, the company faces challenges in maintaining profitability and cash flow generation, as indicated by declining margins and free cash flow. Continued focus on cost management and operational efficiency will be crucial to enhance financial performance.

Income Statement

Steel Dynamics shows a moderate revenue growth rate of 2.84% in the TTM, recovering from a decline in previous years. The gross profit margin has decreased to 13.03% from higher levels in prior years, indicating some pressure on cost management. The net profit margin is at 6.39%, which is a decline from previous periods, suggesting reduced profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins have also decreased, reflecting challenges in maintaining operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio is stable at 0.42, indicating a balanced approach to leveraging. Return on equity has decreased to 12.65% in the TTM, down from higher levels, suggesting a decline in profitability relative to equity. The equity ratio remains strong, indicating a solid capital structure with a good proportion of equity financing.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow remains robust, but free cash flow has seen a significant decline, with a negative growth rate of -389.49% in the TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy at 0.78, but the free cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.20, indicating challenges in converting income into free cash flow.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	17.63B	17.54B	18.80B	22.26B	18.41B	9.60B
Gross Profit	2.30B	2.80B	4.05B	6.12B	5.36B	1.43B
EBITDA	2.01B	2.52B	3.73B	5.50B	4.61B	1.13B
Net Income	1.13B	1.54B	2.45B	3.86B	3.21B	550.82M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	15.97B	14.94B	14.91B	14.16B	12.53B	9.27B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	770.36M	737.27M	2.12B	2.26B	1.24B	1.37B
Total Debt	3.78B	3.35B	3.07B	3.07B	3.11B	3.10B
Total Liabilities	6.99B	5.99B	6.07B	6.06B	6.21B	4.92B
Stockholders Equity	9.00B	8.93B	8.87B	8.13B	6.30B	4.35B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	310.99M	-23.50M	1.86B	3.55B	1.20B	-211.02M
Operating Cash Flow	1.52B	1.84B	3.52B	4.46B	2.20B	987.03M
Investing Cash Flow	-553.83M	-1.30B	-1.97B	-1.88B	-999.42M	-993.26M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.21B	-1.35B	-1.78B	-2.20B	-1.33B	-7.05M

Steel Dynamics Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 173.58
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For STLD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 173.58 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 172.73, above the 50-day MA of 166.42, and above the 200-day MA of 140.78, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.31 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 55.29 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.06 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for STLD.

Steel Dynamics Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
STLD	74 Outperform	$25.35B	23.03	12.47%	1.11%	-1.49%	-31.82%
NUE	74 Outperform	$39.91B	24.51	7.98%	1.34%	1.66%	-31.25%
RS	74 Outperform	$16.94B	23.70	9.94%	1.63%	-0.88%	-25.15%
MT	71 Outperform	$36.38B	14.81	4.72%	1.03%	-4.51%	―
CMC	67 Neutral	$8.25B	19.18	10.51%	1.02%	-1.61%	-81.36%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
PKX	61 Neutral	$17.00B	52.31	0.78%	3.22%	-8.97%	-67.03%

Steel Dynamics Corporate Events

Steel Dynamics joins bid to acquire BlueScope Steel

On January 5–6, 2026, SGH Ltd and Steel Dynamics, Inc. confirmed they have jointly submitted a non-binding indicative offer for SGH to acquire 100% of BlueScope Steel Ltd via a scheme of arrangement, valuing BlueScope’s equity at AUD$13.2 billion and offering shareholders AUD$30.00 per share in cash, representing premiums of up to 33% over recent trading benchmarks and implying EV/FY25 EBIT and EBITDA multiples of 18.6x and 9.5x respectively. Under the proposal, SGH would retain BlueScope’s Australia and Rest of World operations while on-selling the North American businesses, including the North Star Flat Rolled Steel Mill and Building and Coated Products North America, to Steel Dynamics, in a transaction that both bidders argue would unlock value by separating the businesses geographically, strengthen SDI’s domestic steel platform, provide a cash exit at a substantial premium for BlueScope shareholders and maintain continuity for employees and communities, though the offer remains subject to due diligence, definitive documentation, and regulatory and shareholder approvals with no certainty of completion.

The most recent analyst rating on (STLD) stock is a Buy with a $185.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Steel Dynamics stock, see the STLD Stock Forecast page.

Steel Dynamics Redeems 5% Senior Notes, Simplifying Debt

On December 21, 2025, Steel Dynamics, Inc. fully redeemed and repaid its outstanding 5.000% Senior Notes due 2026, retiring the entire $400 million principal at par plus accrued interest. By paying all remaining sums and delivering the notes for cancellation, the company terminated its obligations under the governing indenture, simplifying its capital structure and reducing debt ahead of the notes’ scheduled maturity.

The most recent analyst rating on (STLD) stock is a Buy with a $173.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Steel Dynamics stock, see the STLD Stock Forecast page.

Steel Dynamics Updates Q4 Earnings Guidance and Outlook

Steel Dynamics announced its fourth quarter 2025 earnings guidance of $1.65-$1.69 per diluted share, a decrease compared to the third quarter due to seasonal demand reductions, lower steel selling values, and extended planned maintenance outages. Various operations, including steel fabrication and metals recycling, experienced seasonal declines but show positive signs for 2026 supported by infrastructure projects, declining interest rates, and steady order activity. The aluminum operations successfully began producing and qualifying products for the industrial, automotive, and beverage can sectors, signaling promising growth prospects as diversification efforts continue.

The most recent analyst rating on (STLD) stock is a Buy with a $190.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Steel Dynamics stock, see the STLD Stock Forecast page.

Steel Dynamics Completes Acquisition of New Process Steel

On December 1, 2025, Steel Dynamics completed the acquisition of the remaining 55% ownership interest in New Process Steel, a Houston-based metals solutions and distribution company. This acquisition aims to enhance Steel Dynamics’ exposure to value-added manufacturing opportunities while continuing to serve its flat rolled steel customers. New Process Steel, known for its high-quality standards and strong customer relationships, operates multiple manufacturing locations in North America and is Steel Dynamics’ largest flat roll steel customer. This strategic move is expected to bolster Steel Dynamics’ market positioning and provide growth opportunities in value-added manufacturing.

The most recent analyst rating on (STLD) stock is a Buy with a $185.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Steel Dynamics stock, see the STLD Stock Forecast page.

Steel Dynamics Completes $792 Million Notes Sale

On November 21, 2025, Steel Dynamics, Inc. completed the sale of $650 million in 4.000% Notes due 2028 and $150 million in 5.250% Notes due 2035, raising approximately $792 million. The proceeds will be used to redeem $400 million of the company’s 5.000% Notes due 2026 and for general corporate purposes. This transaction enhances Steel Dynamics’ financial flexibility and supports its long-term strategy, maintaining its investment-grade credit ratings and providing a strong capital foundation for growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (STLD) stock is a Buy with a $169.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Steel Dynamics stock, see the STLD Stock Forecast page.

Steel Dynamics Appoints New Head of Metals Recycling

On November 11, 2025, Steel Dynamics announced the appointment of Matt Bell as the head of its metals recycling platform. Matt Bell, who joined the company in 2016, has been recognized for his leadership and will now oversee the metals recycling operations as Vice President of Metals Recycling and President of OmniSource. This leadership change is part of the company’s succession planning, following Miguel Alvarez’s transition to lead the aluminum flat rolled products platform.

The most recent analyst rating on (STLD) stock is a Hold with a $165.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Steel Dynamics stock, see the STLD Stock Forecast page.

Steel Dynamics Announces Q4 2025 Cash Dividend

On November 7, 2025, Steel Dynamics, Inc. announced a fourth quarter 2025 cash dividend of $0.50 per common share, payable to shareholders of record on December 31, 2025, and disbursed on or about January 9, 2026. This announcement reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to providing shareholder value and may impact its financial positioning as it continues to diversify its product offerings and expand its operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (STLD) stock is a Hold with a $165.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Steel Dynamics stock, see the STLD Stock Forecast page.