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Steel Dynamics
(NASDAQ:STLD)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$242.00
â–²(20.81% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/19/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial strength (profitability and manageable leverage despite weaker cash conversion) and supportive technical momentum (price above key moving averages with positive MACD). Offsetting factors are a less attractive valuation (high P/E with low dividend yield) and execution risk from the aluminum ramp, which remains a near-term earnings and working-capital headwind despite improving guidance and operational progress.
Positive Factors
High mill utilization
Sustained above-industry utilization lowers per-ton fixed costs and supports margins and cash flow over cycles. Higher throughput reflects operational scale and competitiveness in pricing and delivery, providing a durable cost and service advantage that bolsters returns for 2–6+ months.
Negative Factors
Aluminum startup execution risk
The aluminum platform’s early quality and process setbacks produced meaningful near-term losses, elevated working capital and inventory write-downs. Continued ramp and certification risks can delay expected through-cycle EBITDA contribution and strain cash/returns until steady-state operations are achieved.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High mill utilization
Sustained above-industry utilization lowers per-ton fixed costs and supports margins and cash flow over cycles. Higher throughput reflects operational scale and competitiveness in pricing and delivery, providing a durable cost and service advantage that bolsters returns for 2–6+ months.
Read all positive factors
Steel Dynamics Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Type
Breaks down revenue sources, providing insight into the diversity of income streams and potential vulnerabilities or growth areas.
Breaks down revenue sources, providing insight into the diversity of income streams and potential vulnerabilities or growth areas.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlySteel Dynamics (STLD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$31.78B
Dividend Yield1.11%
Average Volume (3M)1.20M
Price to Earnings (P/E)23.5
Beta (1Y)1.24
Revenue Growth10.44%
EPS Growth23.34%
CountryUS
Employees13,000
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustrySteel
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)9.37
Shares Outstanding144,212,780
10 Day Avg. Volume1,446,053
30 Day Avg. Volume1,198,258
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.12
Price to Book (P/B)2.80
Price to Sales (P/S)1.38
P/FCF Ratio49.94
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.34
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.24
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit16.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda16.75
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$267.33Price Target Upside33.45% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)15.9
Revenue Forecast (FY)$22.71B
Steel Dynamics Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Steel Dynamics, Inc. is a prominent American steel manufacturer and metal recycling enterprise, conducting its operations through three distinct business divisions. The Steel Operations segment is responsible for producing a broad range of steel p...
How the Company Makes Money
Steel Dynamics makes money primarily by producing and selling steel and related metal products, supplemented by earnings from metals recycling and downstream fabrication/processing services.
1) Steel production and sales (core revenue stream): ST...
Steel Dynamics Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 20, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 22, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong overall operational and financial performance driven by record steel shipments, robust pricing, high mill utilization, and excellent recycling and fabrication results. The primary challenge is the aluminum startup, which produced a Q1 operating loss, a temporary production pause and inventory write-down, and increased working capital needs. Management reports that aluminum quality/process issues have been resolved, ramping continues with improving certifications and volume guidance, and the broader business remains highly cash generative with active capital allocation (dividends, buybacks, growth investments). Given the breadth and scale of positive results across steel, recycling, fabrication, and cash generation, and management’s confidence in resolving aluminum startup issues and achieving targeted aluminum through-cycle earnings, the positives materially outweigh the lowlights.Positive Updates
Record Steel Shipments
Achieved record quarterly steel shipments of 3.6 million tons, driven by strong demand across flat rolled and long product segments and higher throughput across mills.
Negative Updates
Aluminum Startup Loss and Inventory Write-Down
Aluminum reported an operating loss of $65 million in Q1; elevated operating costs in January due to startup process issues required a temporary pause and led to an inventory write-down, delaying profitability for the full quarter (Feb–Mar combined roughly breakeven).
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Steel Shipments
Achieved record quarterly steel shipments of 3.6 million tons, driven by strong demand across flat rolled and long product segments and higher throughput across mills.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided 2026 capital spending of about $600 million (Q1 capex $138M) while preserving investment‑grade metrics and ~$2.0 billion of liquidity (cash/investments $800M + $1.2B revolver); they reiterated the three major growth projects target roughly $1.4B of through‑cycle annual EBITDA and put aluminum through‑cycle EBITDA at $650–700M plus $40–50M from recycling, expect the aluminum ramp to ~60–70k tons in Q2 (Q4 shipments ~14k, Q1 ~22k) and to exit 2026 at ~90% monthly capacity with a 2027 target mix of 45% can sheet / 35% automotive / 20% industrial, and noted ~75–80% of flat‑rolled sales are on lagged pricing (about two months) so recent HRC price moves (avg HRC up from $850 to $975/ton q‑o‑q and now >$1,000) should benefit Q2; Q1 reported metrics included record steel shipments of 3.6M tons, adjusted EBITDA $700M, net income $403M ($2.78/diluted share), revenues $5.2B, operating income $538M (steel operating income $557M, metals recycling $47M, fabrication $90M, aluminum operating loss $65M), free cash flow averages of $2.4B over the last five years (or $3.2B excl. certain growth investments), a $115M buyback in Q1 with $687M remaining authorization, and continued focus on dividend growth and disciplined capital allocation.Steel Dynamics Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
68
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
62
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 19.01B | 18.18B | 17.54B | 18.80B | 22.26B | 18.41B |
| Gross Profit | 2.66B | 2.36B | 2.80B | 4.05B | 6.12B | 5.36B |
| EBITDA | 2.54B | 2.11B | 2.52B | 3.73B | 5.50B | 4.61B |
| Net Income | 1.37B | 1.19B | 1.54B | 2.45B | 3.86B | 3.21B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 16.72B | 16.41B | 14.94B | 14.91B | 14.16B | 12.53B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 556.53M | 769.88M | 737.27M | 2.12B | 2.26B | 1.24B |
| Total Debt | 4.20B | 4.21B | 3.35B | 3.07B | 3.07B | 3.11B |
| Total Liabilities | 7.59B | 7.48B | 5.99B | 6.07B | 6.06B | 6.21B |
| Stockholders Equity | 9.16B | 8.96B | 8.93B | 8.87B | 8.13B | 6.30B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 664.75M | 501.51M | -23.50M | 1.86B | 3.55B | 1.20B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.45B | 1.45B | 1.84B | 3.52B | 4.46B | 2.20B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -935.26M | -974.96M | -1.30B | -1.97B | -1.88B | -999.42M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.14B | -294.31M | -1.35B | -1.78B | -2.20B | -1.33B |
Steel Dynamics Technical Analysis
Negative
200.32
Price Trends
244.84
Negative
215.43
Positive
187.82
Positive
Market Momentum
-5.77
Positive
32.55
Neutral
6.30
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For STLD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 200.32 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 255.39, below the 50-day MA of 244.84, and above the 200-day MA of 187.82, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -5.77 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 32.55 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 6.30 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for STLD.
Steel Dynamics Risk Analysis
Steel Dynamics disclosed 19 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Steel Dynamics reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Steel Dynamics Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $18.99B | 24.13 | 11.18% | 1.63% | 8.49% | 9.68% | |
70 Outperform | $31.78B | 23.52 | 15.25% | 1.11% | 10.44% | 23.34% | |
67 Neutral | $50.27B | 21.83 | 11.16% | 1.34% | 12.27% | 79.72% | |
63 Neutral | $47.10B | 16.46 | 5.35% | 1.03% | -1.31% | 149.74% | |
62 Neutral | $6.83B | 11.54 | 11.88% | 1.02% | 15.23% | 1535.96% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
41 Neutral | $15.35B | 29.19 | 1.48% | 3.22% | -5.70% | -6.30% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
STLD
Steel Dynamics
220.39
88.48
67.07%
MT
ArcelorMittal
63.40
31.40
98.10%
CMC
Commercial Metals Company
61.73
11.13
21.99%
NUE
Nucor
220.75
85.61
63.35%
PKX
POSCO
52.12
-3.90
-6.96%
RS
Reliance Steel
372.01
53.41
16.77%
Steel Dynamics Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Steel Dynamics Raises Q2 Guidance on Strong Steel Demand
Positive
Jun 18, 2026
On June 17, 2026, Steel Dynamics issued second-quarter 2026 earnings guidance of $3.51 to $3.55 per diluted share, up from $2.78 in the first quarter and $2.01 a year earlier, despite a $16 million reduction from asset write-downs tied to relocati...
DividendsShareholder Meetings
Steel Dynamics Declares Second-Quarter Cash Dividend Payment
Positive
May 8, 2026
Steel Dynamics, Inc. reported the results of its Annual Meeting of Shareholders held on May 6, 2026, where 90.12% of outstanding shares were represented, ensuring a strong voting quorum and underscoring robust shareholder engagement. All seven boa...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.