Steel Dynamics (STLD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $18.34B
• Dividend Yield: 1.57%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.26M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 18.0
• Beta (1Y): 1.18
• Revenue Growth: -5.51%
• EPS Growth: -45.07%
• Country: US
• Employees: 13,000
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 57
• Industry: Steel
• EPS (TTM): 2.01
• Shares Outstanding: 148,453,870
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,246,622
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,261,828
• PEG Ratio: -0.35
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.98
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.01
• P/FCF Ratio: -754.32
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.22
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.30
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 10.38
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 11.79
• 1Y Price Target: $150.14
• Price Target Upside: 21.54% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: $140.00 ▲(13.33% Upside)

Steel Dynamics' overall stock score of 70 reflects a balance of strengths and weaknesses. The company demonstrates operational efficiency and a stable balance sheet, but faces challenges with negative free cash flow and valuation concerns. Technical analysis suggests bearish momentum, though recent corporate events and strategic advancements in aluminum operations provide a positive outlook. Earnings call sentiment is mixed, highlighting both achievements and challenges.

Positive Factors

Free Cash Flow

Steel Dynamics is well-positioned to generate above-peer free cash flow, with investments having the potential to add significant incremental EBITDA.

Order Backlog

Fabrication operations order activity was solid, with backlog increasing and extending into the future at stable pricing.

Negative Factors

EPS Performance

Steel Dynamics reported Q2’25 EPS that was towards the low-end of its mid-June guidance, but light vs. BofAe and consensus estimates.

Revenues

Revenues of $4,565m were below the Visible Alpha consensus of $4,712m.

Steel Dynamics Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Steel Dynamics, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a steel producer and metal recycler in the United States. It operates through three segments: Steel Operations, Metals Recycling Operations, and Steel Fabrication Operations. The Steel Operations segment offers hot roll, cold roll, and coated steel products; parallel flange beams and channel sections, flat bars, large unequal leg angles, and reinforcing bars, as well as standard strength carbon, intermediate alloy hardness, and premium grade rail products; and engineered special-bar-quality products, merchant-bar-quality products, and other engineered round steel bars. The company also engages in turning, polishing, straightening, chamfering, threading, precision saw-cutting, and heat treating of bar products; and cutting to length, straightening, hole punching, shot blasting, welding, galvanizing, and coating of specialty products. Its products are used in construction, automotive, manufacturing, transportation, heavy and agriculture equipment, and pipe and tube markets. This segment sells directly to end-users, steel fabricators, and service centers. The Metals Recycling Operations segment purchases, processes, and resells ferrous and nonferrous scrap metals into reusable forms and grades. Its ferrous products include heavy melting steel, busheling, bundled scrap, shredded scrap, steel turnings, and cast-iron products; and nonferrous products comprise aluminum, brass, copper, stainless steel, and other nonferrous metals. This segment also provides transportation logistics, marketing, brokerage, and scrap management services. The Steel Fabrication Operations segment produces non-residential steel building components, such as steel joists, girders, trusses, and steel deck products. The company also exports its products. Steel Dynamics, Inc. was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Fort Wayne, Indiana.

How the Company Makes Money

Steel Dynamics makes money through its diversified operations in steel production, metal recycling, and steel fabrication. The steel operations segment generates revenue by producing and selling a variety of steel products, such as hot-rolled, cold-rolled, and coated steel products, to customers in sectors like automotive, construction, and manufacturing. The metals recycling segment contributes revenue by processing and selling ferrous and non-ferrous scrap to steel mills and foundries. The steel fabrication segment generates income through the production and sale of steel joists, girders, and other fabricated products used primarily in non-residential construction. The company's strategic acquisitions and investments in technology and capacity expansion also play a significant role in enhancing its revenue-generating capabilities.

Steel Dynamics Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Steel Dynamics presents a mixed financial picture. The income statement shows operational efficiency with healthy EBIT and EBITDA margins but suffers from reduced revenue growth and net profit margins below industry averages. The balance sheet is stable with moderate leverage, and a strong equity position, but the cash flow statement indicates challenges with negative free cash flow, highlighting potential liquidity concerns.

Income Statement

Steel Dynamics shows a mixed performance in its income statement. The TTM gross profit margin stands at 12.56%, indicating a reduction compared to previous years, primarily due to a decline in total revenue. The net profit margin for TTM is 6.07%, which is below the industry average. Revenue has shown a negative growth rate of 2.24% in the most recent TTM period compared to the previous annual period. However, the EBIT and EBITDA margins for the TTM are healthy at 7.53% and 11.05%, respectively, demonstrating operational efficiency despite revenue pressures.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Steel Dynamics is stable with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.43, reflecting moderate leverage and a strong equity position. The return on equity (ROE) for TTM is 11.75%, which is decent, although it shows a decline from previous years. The equity ratio remains strong at 57.03%, indicating a solid foundation of equity over liabilities. Overall, the balance sheet reflects financial strength, with ample equity supporting liabilities.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement indicates some challenges, particularly in free cash flow generation. The TTM free cash flow is negative at $-107 million, compared to positive free cash flow in previous periods, suggesting increased capital expenditures or reduced operating cash flow. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.50, showing strong cash generation relative to profits. However, the negative free cash flow to net income ratio indicates potential liquidity concerns if this trend continues.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	17.15B	17.54B	18.80B	22.26B	18.41B	9.60B
Gross Profit	2.15B	2.80B	4.05B	6.12B	5.36B	1.43B
EBITDA	1.89B	2.52B	3.73B	5.50B	4.61B	1.19B
Net Income	1.04B	1.54B	2.45B	3.86B	3.21B	550.82M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	15.55B	14.94B	14.91B	14.16B	12.53B	9.27B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	497.63M	737.27M	2.12B	2.26B	1.24B	1.37B
Total Debt	3.78B	3.35B	3.20B	3.07B	3.11B	3.10B
Total Liabilities	6.70B	5.99B	6.07B	6.06B	6.21B	4.92B
Stockholders Equity	8.86B	8.93B	8.87B	8.13B	6.30B	4.35B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-107.43M	-23.50M	1.86B	3.55B	1.20B	-211.02M
Operating Cash Flow	1.56B	1.84B	3.52B	4.46B	2.20B	987.03M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.29B	-1.30B	-1.97B	-1.88B	-999.42M	-993.26M
Financing Cash Flow	-647.89M	-1.35B	-1.78B	-2.20B	-1.33B	-7.05M

Steel Dynamics Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 123.53
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For STLD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 123.53 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 130.43, below the 50-day MA of 130.36, and below the 200-day MA of 128.52, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.83 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.27 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.29 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for STLD.

Steel Dynamics Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PKX	71 Outperform	$15.49B	43.60	0.78%	2.03%	-7.63%	-63.88%
RS	71 Outperform	$15.14B	21.01	9.93%	1.60%	-3.91%	-30.31%
STLD	70 Outperform	$18.34B	18.01	11.57%	1.57%	-5.51%	-45.07%
NUE	69 Neutral	$32.18B	25.17	6.29%	1.58%	-5.78%	-59.98%
X	64 Neutral	$12.42B	186.15	0.86%	0.36%	-14.79%	-88.78%
MT	59 Neutral	$25.52B	9.44	4.72%	1.56%	-4.36%	―
Sector *	44 Neutral	C$861.97M	-6.77	-14.90%	2.79%	16.54%	-27.01%

Steel Dynamics Corporate Events

Steel Dynamics Projects Strong Q2 2025 Earnings Growth

On June 18, 2025, Steel Dynamics announced its second quarter 2025 earnings guidance, projecting earnings per diluted share between $2.00 and $2.04, compared to $1.44 in the first quarter and $2.72 in the previous year’s second quarter. The company’s steel operations are expected to see improved profitability due to expanded metal spreads and increased steel pricing, despite a $32 million noncash write-off. Metals recycling earnings are anticipated to remain steady, while steel fabrication earnings may decline due to increased raw material costs. The company also continues to advance its aluminum operations, with successful commissioning in Mississippi and Mexico, and plans to start shipping mid-2025. Additionally, Steel Dynamics repurchased $179 million of its common stock during the second quarter.

The most recent analyst rating on (STLD) stock is a Buy with a $158.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Steel Dynamics stock, see the STLD Stock Forecast page.

Steel Dynamics Announces Leadership Transition in Aluminum Group

On May 9, 2025, Steel Dynamics announced leadership transitions as Glenn Pushis will retire on October 1, 2025, to become CEO of McBride Capital Partners’ Project Aero, while continuing as a consultant for Steel Dynamics’ new aluminum facilities. Miguel Alvarez will take over as Senior Vice President Aluminum Group, overseeing the company’s aluminum operations and strategic investments. These changes reflect Steel Dynamics’ commitment to leadership development and its strategic focus on aluminum operations, which are expected to enhance its market positioning and operational capabilities.

The most recent analyst rating on (STLD) stock is a Buy with a $158.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Steel Dynamics stock, see the STLD Stock Forecast page.