Steel Dynamics (STLD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $28.15B
• Dividend Yield: 1.11%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.33M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 24.1
• Beta (1Y): 1.23
• Revenue Growth: -1.49%
• EPS Growth: -31.82%
• Country: US
• Employees: 13,000
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Steel
• EPS (TTM): 1.82
• Shares Outstanding: 146,034,870
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,203,431
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,329,730
• PEG Ratio: -1.12
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.80
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.38
• P/FCF Ratio: 49.94
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.11
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.72
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 13.13
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 14.81
• 1Y Price Target: $191.29
• Price Target Upside: 0.22% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): 13.93
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $20.90B

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: $215.00 ▲(12.64% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 02/25/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 02/25/26

The score is driven primarily by solid but cyclical financial performance (profitability down from cycle highs and uneven cash conversion, but with moderate leverage) and supportive technical momentum (price above key moving averages with positive MACD). The latest earnings call adds a positive tilt via strong liquidity, capex discipline, buybacks, and improving aluminum ramp execution, while valuation (P/E 24.12 with ~1.05% yield) remains the main constraint.

Positive Factors

Scale & Utilization

High shipment volumes and above-industry mill utilization indicate durable operational scale and superior fixed-cost absorption. Over a 2–6 month horizon this supports steadier margins through normal cyclical swings and a structural advantage in throughput efficiency.

Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Substantial liquidity, conservative leverage and cutback in growth capex provide persistent financial flexibility. This durable posture supports through-cycle capital allocation, preserves investment‑grade focus, and allows consistent dividends and buybacks under moderate stress.

Business Diversification & Strategic M&A

Early aluminum profitability, stronger recycling margins, and added value‑add distribution via New Process Steel materially diversify revenue and margin streams. These structural shifts reduce sole reliance on flat‑rolled steel cycles and improve long‑term cash generation resilience.

Negative Factors

Compressed Steel Margins

Material margin normalization versus prior cycle highs shows core earnings are sensitive to commodity pricing and demand. Over the medium term this caps sustainable profitability and makes operating results dependent on favorable industry pricing cycles.

Cash-Conversion Volatility

Inconsistent cash conversion and sizable working-capital needs tied to the aluminum ramp create unpredictability in free cash flow. This structural variability can constrain reinvestment, shareholder returns, or require higher liquidity buffers over the next several quarters.

Operational & Commissioning Risks

Recurring maintenance outages and start‑up incidents highlight execution risk during capacity expansions. Near-term commissioning and reliability issues can delay expected aluminum and throughput benefits, pressuring margins and cash generation until systems stabilize.

Steel Dynamics Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Steel Dynamics, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a steel producer and metal recycler in the United States. It operates through three segments: Steel Operations, Metals Recycling Operations, and Steel Fabrication Operations. The Steel Operations segment offers hot roll, cold roll, and coated steel products; parallel flange beams and channel sections, flat bars, large unequal leg angles, and reinforcing bars, as well as standard strength carbon, intermediate alloy hardness, and premium grade rail products; and engineered special-bar-quality products, merchant-bar-quality products, and other engineered round steel bars. The company also engages in turning, polishing, straightening, chamfering, threading, precision saw-cutting, and heat treating of bar products; and cutting to length, straightening, hole punching, shot blasting, welding, galvanizing, and coating of specialty products. Its products are used in construction, automotive, manufacturing, transportation, heavy and agriculture equipment, and pipe and tube markets. This segment sells directly to end-users, steel fabricators, and service centers. The Metals Recycling Operations segment purchases, processes, and resells ferrous and nonferrous scrap metals into reusable forms and grades. Its ferrous products include heavy melting steel, busheling, bundled scrap, shredded scrap, steel turnings, and cast-iron products; and nonferrous products comprise aluminum, brass, copper, stainless steel, and other nonferrous metals. This segment also provides transportation logistics, marketing, brokerage, and scrap management services. The Steel Fabrication Operations segment produces non-residential steel building components, such as steel joists, girders, trusses, and steel deck products. The company also exports its products. Steel Dynamics, Inc. was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Fort Wayne, Indiana.

How the Company Makes Money

Steel Dynamics generates revenue primarily through the sale of steel products and metal recycling services. The Steel Operations segment, which includes the production of flat-rolled, long, and structural steel products, constitutes the majority of the company's revenue. The company benefits from a diversified customer base across various industries, including construction, automotive, and energy. Key revenue streams include the sale of finished steel products, which are sold to manufacturers and distributors, and the processing of scrap metal, which is sourced from industrial and commercial clients. Additionally, Steel Dynamics has established partnerships with suppliers and customers that enhance its operational efficiency and market reach, contributing to stable earnings. Market demand for steel products, pricing fluctuations in raw materials, and operational efficiencies are significant factors influencing the company's profitability.

Steel Dynamics Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability has normalized meaningfully since the 2021–2022 peak (net margin down to ~7% by 2025), and cash generation has been volatile with weaker cash conversion in 2025 despite a free-cash-flow rebound. Offsetting this, leverage remains controlled (debt-to-equity ~0.36–0.49 in 2021–2025) and the equity base is stronger, supporting resilience through the cycle.

Income Statement

Revenue has been relatively stable recently (2025 up ~3% after a modest decline in 2024), but profitability has clearly normalized from the peak steel cycle in 2021–2022. Gross, operating, and net margins stepped down materially from 2022 to 2025 (net margin falling from ~17% to ~7%), and net income declined accordingly. The company remains solidly profitable, but the trajectory highlights earnings sensitivity to industry pricing and demand.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks controlled for a cyclical steel business, with debt-to-equity generally in the ~0.36–0.49 range in 2021–2025 (though higher in 2020). Equity has built meaningfully versus 2020, supporting balance-sheet resilience. Returns on equity were exceptionally high during the upcycle and have reverted to more normal levels by 2025, which reduces headline efficiency but reflects a more sustainable earnings base.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is positive but has been volatile across the cycle. Operating cash flow has declined from 2022–2023 levels, and in 2025 operating cash flow was below net income, suggesting weaker cash conversion versus prior years. Free cash flow rebounded strongly in 2025 after turning slightly negative in 2024, but the multi-year pattern (including negative free cash flow in 2020 and 2024) indicates variability tied to working capital and investment demands.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	18.18B	17.54B	18.80B	22.26B	18.41B
Gross Profit	2.36B	2.80B	4.05B	6.12B	5.36B
EBITDA	2.11B	2.52B	3.73B	5.50B	4.61B
Net Income	1.19B	1.54B	2.45B	3.86B	3.21B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	16.41B	14.94B	14.91B	14.16B	12.53B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	769.88M	737.27M	2.12B	2.26B	1.24B
Total Debt	4.21B	3.35B	3.07B	3.07B	3.11B
Total Liabilities	7.48B	5.99B	6.07B	6.06B	6.21B
Stockholders Equity	8.96B	8.93B	8.87B	8.13B	6.30B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	501.51M	-23.50M	1.86B	3.55B	1.20B
Operating Cash Flow	1.45B	1.84B	3.52B	4.46B	2.20B
Investing Cash Flow	-974.96M	-1.30B	-1.97B	-1.88B	-999.42M
Financing Cash Flow	-294.31M	-1.35B	-1.78B	-2.20B	-1.33B

Steel Dynamics Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 190.87
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For STLD, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 190.87 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 192.09, above the 50-day MA of 180.74, and above the 200-day MA of 149.22, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 4.20 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.28 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 35.89 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for STLD.

Steel Dynamics Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
RS	70 Outperform	$16.58B	23.08	10.28%	1.63%	-0.88%	-25.15%
STLD	69 Neutral	$28.15B	24.12	13.25%	1.11%	-1.49%	-31.82%
CMC	67 Neutral	$8.22B	19.49	10.51%	1.02%	-1.61%	-81.36%
MT	65 Neutral	$49.01B	16.13	6.12%	1.03%	-4.51%	―
NUE	65 Neutral	$40.08B	23.78	8.44%	1.34%	1.66%	-31.25%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
PKX	52 Neutral	$21.00B	61.45	0.78%	3.22%	-8.97%	-67.03%

Steel Dynamics Corporate Events

Steel Dynamics Raises Quarterly Dividend, Signals Confidence Ahead

On February 20, 2026, Steel Dynamics, Inc. announced that its board of directors declared a first‑quarter 2026 cash dividend of $0.53 per common share, a 6% increase over the company’s 2025 quarterly rate. The dividend will be paid on or about April 10, 2026, to shareholders of record as of the close of business on March 31, 2026.

Management framed the dividend hike as a sign of confidence in the company’s consistent cash generation, strong capital structure, and liquidity profile, underscoring its track record of regularly raising dividends alongside growth initiatives. The move signals continued optimism about Steel Dynamics’ strategic expansion and commitment to sustaining an investment‑grade credit rating, which may reassure income‑focused investors and other stakeholders about the company’s financial resilience.

The most recent analyst rating on (STLD) stock is a Hold with a $194.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Steel Dynamics stock, see the STLD Stock Forecast page.

Steel Dynamics Advances Bid for BlueScope’s North American Assets

On February 17, 2026, SGH Ltd and Steel Dynamics, Inc. confirmed they had jointly submitted a revised non-binding indicative offer to acquire 100% of Australia’s BlueScope Steel Ltd at A$32.35 per share in cash, valuing the target’s equity at about A$15 billion (US$11 billion). The bid, positioned as their best and final proposal absent a superior rival, reflects premiums of up to 56% over BlueScope’s historical trading benchmarks and remains subject to due diligence, definitive documentation, and shareholder and regulatory approvals.

Under the proposed structure, SGH would retain BlueScope’s Australia and Rest of World businesses while on-selling the group’s North American operations to Steel Dynamics, aligning with SGH’s industrial platform strategy and Steel Dynamics’ expansion across its steel and building products platforms. The transaction, if completed, would significantly extend Steel Dynamics’ North American reach and consolidate SGH’s role as a key steward of Australian industrial assets, though the parties cautioned that discussions are ongoing and there is no certainty the indicative offer will proceed to a binding deal.

The most recent analyst rating on (STLD) stock is a Buy with a $229.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Steel Dynamics stock, see the STLD Stock Forecast page.

Steel Dynamics joins bid to acquire BlueScope Steel

On January 5–6, 2026, SGH Ltd and Steel Dynamics, Inc. confirmed they have jointly submitted a non-binding indicative offer for SGH to acquire 100% of BlueScope Steel Ltd via a scheme of arrangement, valuing BlueScope’s equity at AUD$13.2 billion and offering shareholders AUD$30.00 per share in cash, representing premiums of up to 33% over recent trading benchmarks and implying EV/FY25 EBIT and EBITDA multiples of 18.6x and 9.5x respectively. Under the proposal, SGH would retain BlueScope’s Australia and Rest of World operations while on-selling the North American businesses, including the North Star Flat Rolled Steel Mill and Building and Coated Products North America, to Steel Dynamics, in a transaction that both bidders argue would unlock value by separating the businesses geographically, strengthen SDI’s domestic steel platform, provide a cash exit at a substantial premium for BlueScope shareholders and maintain continuity for employees and communities, though the offer remains subject to due diligence, definitive documentation, and regulatory and shareholder approvals with no certainty of completion.

The most recent analyst rating on (STLD) stock is a Buy with a $185.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Steel Dynamics stock, see the STLD Stock Forecast page.

Steel Dynamics Redeems 5% Senior Notes, Simplifying Debt

On December 21, 2025, Steel Dynamics, Inc. fully redeemed and repaid its outstanding 5.000% Senior Notes due 2026, retiring the entire $400 million principal at par plus accrued interest. By paying all remaining sums and delivering the notes for cancellation, the company terminated its obligations under the governing indenture, simplifying its capital structure and reducing debt ahead of the notes’ scheduled maturity.

The most recent analyst rating on (STLD) stock is a Buy with a $173.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Steel Dynamics stock, see the STLD Stock Forecast page.

Steel Dynamics Updates Q4 Earnings Guidance and Outlook

Steel Dynamics announced its fourth quarter 2025 earnings guidance of $1.65-$1.69 per diluted share, a decrease compared to the third quarter due to seasonal demand reductions, lower steel selling values, and extended planned maintenance outages. Various operations, including steel fabrication and metals recycling, experienced seasonal declines but show positive signs for 2026 supported by infrastructure projects, declining interest rates, and steady order activity. The aluminum operations successfully began producing and qualifying products for the industrial, automotive, and beverage can sectors, signaling promising growth prospects as diversification efforts continue.

The most recent analyst rating on (STLD) stock is a Buy with a $190.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Steel Dynamics stock, see the STLD Stock Forecast page.

Steel Dynamics Completes Acquisition of New Process Steel

On December 1, 2025, Steel Dynamics completed the acquisition of the remaining 55% ownership interest in New Process Steel, a Houston-based metals solutions and distribution company. This acquisition aims to enhance Steel Dynamics’ exposure to value-added manufacturing opportunities while continuing to serve its flat rolled steel customers. New Process Steel, known for its high-quality standards and strong customer relationships, operates multiple manufacturing locations in North America and is Steel Dynamics’ largest flat roll steel customer. This strategic move is expected to bolster Steel Dynamics’ market positioning and provide growth opportunities in value-added manufacturing.

The most recent analyst rating on (STLD) stock is a Buy with a $185.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Steel Dynamics stock, see the STLD Stock Forecast page.