Steel Dynamics (STLD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $20.31B
• Dividend Yield: 1.39%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.40M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 18.1
• Beta (1Y): 1.16
• Revenue Growth: -7.42%
• EPS Growth: -48.08%
• Country: US
• Employees: 13,000
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 67
• Industry: Steel
• EPS (TTM): 1.44
• Shares Outstanding: 148,453,870
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,822,619
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,402,808
• PEG Ratio: -0.72
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.17
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -121.34
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $147.13
• Price Target Upside: 11.38% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8

• Rating: 78 Outperform
• Price Target: $155.00 ▲(17.34%Upside)

Steel Dynamics exhibits strong operational performance and positive growth prospects, supported by strategic investments and a favorable corporate outlook. While the company faces challenges in profitability margins and free cash flow, the robust technical indicators and positive earnings call sentiment enhance its attractiveness.

Positive Factors

Diversification

The aluminum rolling mill will diversify Steel Dynamics' earnings stream and further improve profitability and free cash flow profile.

Earnings Growth

Steel Dynamics is expected to deliver above-peer free cash flow generation, which should support healthy shareholder returns.

Free Cash Flow

The completion of the company’s capex cycle on its two major recent investments clears the way for higher through-the-cycle free cash flow generation.

Negative Factors

Earnings Drag

Sinton, which has been a material drag on earnings since 2022, is on the cusp of turning around and should start contributing to earnings.

Investment Cycle

Management emphasized a focus on executing the ramp-up of organic growth with funding largely complete, rather than pursuing new growth options.

Steel Prices

STLD is anticipated to have rising earnings, cash flow, and capital returns even if steel prices decrease.

Steel Dynamics Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) is one of the largest domestic steel producers and metal recyclers in the United States, headquartered in Fort Wayne, Indiana. The company operates through three primary segments: steel operations, metals recycling, and steel fabrication. Its core products include flat-rolled steel, structural steel, engineered bar products, and specialty shapes, which are used across a variety of industries including construction, automotive, and manufacturing.

How the Company Makes Money

Steel Dynamics makes money through its diversified operations in steel production, metal recycling, and steel fabrication. The steel operations segment generates revenue by producing and selling a variety of steel products, such as hot-rolled, cold-rolled, and coated steel products, to customers in sectors like automotive, construction, and manufacturing. The metals recycling segment contributes revenue by processing and selling ferrous and non-ferrous scrap to steel mills and foundries. The steel fabrication segment generates income through the production and sale of steel joists, girders, and other fabricated products used primarily in non-residential construction. The company's strategic acquisitions and investments in technology and capacity expansion also play a significant role in enhancing its revenue-generating capabilities.

Steel Dynamics Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Steel Dynamics presents a stable financial position with strong balance sheet metrics. However, declining revenue and profitability margins in TTM highlight challenges in maintaining growth. The negative free cash flow also raises concerns about liquidity management. The company needs to focus on improving revenue streams and profitability to ensure long-term sustainability.

Income Statement

Steel Dynamics shows a mixed performance in its income statement. The TTM revenue shows a decline compared to the previous annual figures, indicating some challenges in maintaining growth. The gross profit margin stands at 13.36% for TTM, which is moderate but shows a decline compared to last year. Net profit margin for TTM is 6.80%, also lower than the previous year, suggesting reduced profitability. The EBITDA margin of 10.93% in TTM reflects a solid operational efficiency despite declining revenue.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Steel Dynamics is strong, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.48 in TTM, indicating moderate leverage. The equity ratio of 55.39% suggests a robust capital structure, providing a cushion against liabilities. Return on equity for TTM is 13.26%, showing a respectable return on shareholders' investment, though it has declined from previous periods.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement reveals some challenges with free cash flow being negative in TTM despite positive operating cash flow. The operating cash flow to net income ratio for TTM is 1.40, indicating solid cash generation relative to net income. However, the inability to generate positive free cash flow poses a risk and may affect future investments or debt repayments.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
17.22B	17.54B	18.80B	22.26B	18.41B	9.60B
	Gross Profit
2.30B	2.80B	4.05B	6.12B	5.36B	1.43B
	EBIT
1.47B	1.94B	3.15B	5.09B	4.30B	847.14M
	EBITDA
1.88B	2.52B	3.73B	5.50B	4.61B	1.19B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
1.17B	1.54B	2.45B	3.86B	3.21B	550.82M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.21B	737.27M	2.12B	2.26B	1.24B	1.37B
	Total Assets
15.93B	14.94B	14.91B	14.16B	12.53B	9.27B
	Total Debt
4.20B	3.23B	3.20B	3.07B	3.11B	3.10B
	Net Debt
3.01B	2.64B	1.80B	1.44B	1.86B	1.73B
	Total Liabilities
7.10B	5.99B	6.07B	6.06B	6.21B	4.92B
	Stockholders Equity
8.82B	8.93B	8.87B	8.13B	6.30B	4.35B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-157.31M	-23.50M	1.86B	3.55B	1.20B	-211.02M
	Operating Cash Flow
1.64B	1.84B	3.52B	4.46B	2.20B	987.03M
	Investing Cash Flow
-1.19B	-1.30B	-1.97B	-1.88B	-999.42M	-993.26M
	Financing Cash Flow
-305.46M	-1.35B	-1.78B	-2.20B	-1.33B	-7.05M

Steel Dynamics Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 132.10
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For STLD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 132.1 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 131.83, above the 50-day MA of 126.53, and above the 200-day MA of 126.57, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.19 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.56 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 62.95 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for STLD.

Steel Dynamics Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
STLD	78 Outperform	$20.31B	18.09	13.08%	1.39%	-7.42%	-48.08%
RS	78 Outperform	$16.21B	22.10	10.27%	1.49%	-5.60%	-35.05%
NUE	70 Outperform	$28.23B	21.78	6.54%	1.79%	-10.88%	-66.97%
MT	67 Neutral	$25.14B	17.98	2.60%	1.47%	-8.56%	68.36%
PKX	66 Neutral	$12.99B	21.14	1.64%	3.55%	-8.83%	-43.85%
X	58 Neutral	$12.17B	182.48	0.86%	0.37%	-14.79%	-88.78%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$2.02B	-1.12	-21.36%	3.65%	2.87%	-30.54%

Steel Dynamics Corporate Events

Steel Dynamics Announces Leadership Transition in Aluminum Group

On May 9, 2025, Steel Dynamics announced leadership transitions as Glenn Pushis will retire on October 1, 2025, to become CEO of McBride Capital Partners’ Project Aero, while continuing as a consultant for Steel Dynamics’ new aluminum facilities. Miguel Alvarez will take over as Senior Vice President Aluminum Group, overseeing the company’s aluminum operations and strategic investments. These changes reflect Steel Dynamics’ commitment to leadership development and its strategic focus on aluminum operations, which are expected to enhance its market positioning and operational capabilities.

The most recent analyst rating on (STLD) stock is a Buy with a $158.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Steel Dynamics stock, see the STLD Stock Forecast page.

Steel Dynamics Projects Strong Q1 2025 Earnings

On March 17, 2025, Steel Dynamics, Inc. announced its first quarter 2025 earnings guidance, projecting earnings per diluted share between $1.36 and $1.40. The company’s steel operations are expected to see increased profitability due to higher shipments, despite some metal margin compression. The Sinton Texas Flat Roll Division operated at over 90% production capacity, indicating a path to profitability by the second quarter. Metals recycling operations are also expected to perform better than the previous quarter, while steel fabrication earnings are anticipated to be lower due to seasonal factors. The company is advancing its aluminum operations, with significant progress in its Columbus, Mississippi mill and San Luis Potosi center. Additionally, Steel Dynamics increased its cash dividend by nine percent and authorized an additional $1.5 billion for share repurchases, reflecting confidence in its financial outlook.