Steel Dynamics (STLD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $19.13B
• Dividend Yield: 1.57%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.27M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 17.0
• Beta (1Y): 1.16
• Revenue Growth: -7.42%
• EPS Growth: -48.08%
• Country: US
• Employees: 13,000
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 63
• Industry: Steel
• EPS (TTM): 1.44
• Shares Outstanding: 148,453,870
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 990,183
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,266,326
• PEG Ratio: -0.74
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.21
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -122.60
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.16
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.31
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 9.59
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 2.15
• 1Y Price Target: $148.83
• Price Target Upside: 13.48% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6

• Rating: 75 Outperform
• Price Target: $148.00 ▲(12.85%Upside)

Steel Dynamics' overall score reflects its strong operational performance and strategic expansions, particularly in the aluminum segment. Despite financial challenges in revenue and profitability margins, the company's future growth potential, robust balance sheet, and positive earnings guidance support a favorable outlook.

Positive Factors

Free Cash Flow

Expectations of rising free cash flow and higher earnings after the completion of current capital expenditures are factors in the positive outlook for Steel Dynamics.

Metal Spreads

STLD expects the steel operation segment's profits to improve due to expanded metal spreads.

Section 232 Tariffs

Steel Dynamics is a best-in-class domestic US steel producer, with a product portfolio that is relatively well-positioned to benefit from expanded Section 232 tariffs.

Negative Factors

Asset Write-Off

The company announced a $32 million noncash asset write-off in their steel segment business.

Guidance

STLD shares are expected to underperform due to worse than expected guidance.

Steel Fabrication Profits

Profits from the steel fabrication segment are guided to be lower due to steady shipments and spread compression.

Steel Dynamics Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) is one of the largest domestic steel producers and metal recyclers in the United States, headquartered in Fort Wayne, Indiana. The company operates through three primary segments: steel operations, metals recycling, and steel fabrication. Its core products include flat-rolled steel, structural steel, engineered bar products, and specialty shapes, which are used across a variety of industries including construction, automotive, and manufacturing.

How the Company Makes Money

Steel Dynamics makes money through its diversified operations in steel production, metal recycling, and steel fabrication. The steel operations segment generates revenue by producing and selling a variety of steel products, such as hot-rolled, cold-rolled, and coated steel products, to customers in sectors like automotive, construction, and manufacturing. The metals recycling segment contributes revenue by processing and selling ferrous and non-ferrous scrap to steel mills and foundries. The steel fabrication segment generates income through the production and sale of steel joists, girders, and other fabricated products used primarily in non-residential construction. The company's strategic acquisitions and investments in technology and capacity expansion also play a significant role in enhancing its revenue-generating capabilities.

Steel Dynamics Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Steel Dynamics maintains a strong balance sheet with a moderate debt-to-equity ratio and solid cash generation capabilities. However, declining revenue and profit margins, along with negative free cash flow, highlight challenges in growth and liquidity management.

Income Statement

Steel Dynamics shows a mixed performance in its income statement. The TTM revenue shows a decline compared to the previous annual figures, indicating some challenges in maintaining growth. The gross profit margin stands at 13.36% for TTM, which is moderate but shows a decline compared to last year. Net profit margin for TTM is 6.80%, also lower than the previous year, suggesting reduced profitability. The EBITDA margin of 10.93% in TTM reflects a solid operational efficiency despite declining revenue.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Steel Dynamics is strong, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.48 in TTM, indicating moderate leverage. The equity ratio of 55.39% suggests a robust capital structure, providing a cushion against liabilities. Return on equity for TTM is 13.26%, showing a respectable return on shareholders' investment, though it has declined from previous periods.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement reveals some challenges with free cash flow being negative in TTM despite positive operating cash flow. The operating cash flow to net income ratio for TTM is 1.40, indicating solid cash generation relative to net income. However, the inability to generate positive free cash flow poses a risk and may affect future investments or debt repayments.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	17.54B	18.80B	22.26B	18.41B	9.60B
Gross Profit	2.80B	4.05B	6.12B	5.36B	1.43B
EBITDA	2.52B	3.73B	5.50B	4.61B	1.19B
Net Income	1.54B	2.45B	3.86B	3.21B	550.82M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	14.94B	14.91B	14.16B	12.53B	9.27B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	737.27M	2.12B	2.26B	1.24B	1.37B
Total Debt	3.23B	3.20B	3.07B	3.11B	3.10B
Total Liabilities	5.99B	6.07B	6.06B	6.21B	4.92B
Stockholders Equity	8.93B	8.87B	8.13B	6.30B	4.35B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-23.50M	1.86B	3.55B	1.20B	-211.02M
Operating Cash Flow	1.84B	3.52B	4.46B	2.20B	987.03M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.30B	-1.97B	-1.88B	-999.42M	-993.26M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.35B	-1.78B	-2.20B	-1.33B	-7.05M

Steel Dynamics Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 131.15
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For STLD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 131.15 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 131.18, below the 50-day MA of 131.37, and above the 200-day MA of 128.41, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.30 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.33 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.14 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for STLD.

Steel Dynamics Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NUE	79 Outperform	$31.93B	24.64	6.54%	1.60%	-10.88%	-66.97%
STLD	75 Outperform	$19.13B	17.03	13.08%	1.57%	-7.42%	-48.08%
RS	72 Outperform	$16.93B	23.09	10.27%	1.47%	-5.60%	-35.05%
PKX	71 Outperform	$16.67B	26.94	1.64%	2.59%	-8.83%	-43.85%
MT	69 Neutral	$27.53B	19.50	2.60%	0.70%	-8.56%	68.36%
Sector *	44 Neutral	AU$1.42B	-6.06	-40.74%	3.89%	-3.45%	-41.76%

Steel Dynamics Corporate Events

Steel Dynamics Projects Strong Q2 2025 Earnings Growth

On June 18, 2025, Steel Dynamics announced its second quarter 2025 earnings guidance, projecting earnings per diluted share between $2.00 and $2.04, compared to $1.44 in the first quarter and $2.72 in the previous year’s second quarter. The company’s steel operations are expected to see improved profitability due to expanded metal spreads and increased steel pricing, despite a $32 million noncash write-off. Metals recycling earnings are anticipated to remain steady, while steel fabrication earnings may decline due to increased raw material costs. The company also continues to advance its aluminum operations, with successful commissioning in Mississippi and Mexico, and plans to start shipping mid-2025. Additionally, Steel Dynamics repurchased $179 million of its common stock during the second quarter.

The most recent analyst rating on (STLD) stock is a Buy with a $158.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Steel Dynamics stock, see the STLD Stock Forecast page.

Steel Dynamics Announces Leadership Transition in Aluminum Group

On May 9, 2025, Steel Dynamics announced leadership transitions as Glenn Pushis will retire on October 1, 2025, to become CEO of McBride Capital Partners’ Project Aero, while continuing as a consultant for Steel Dynamics’ new aluminum facilities. Miguel Alvarez will take over as Senior Vice President Aluminum Group, overseeing the company’s aluminum operations and strategic investments. These changes reflect Steel Dynamics’ commitment to leadership development and its strategic focus on aluminum operations, which are expected to enhance its market positioning and operational capabilities.

The most recent analyst rating on (STLD) stock is a Buy with a $158.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Steel Dynamics stock, see the STLD Stock Forecast page.