Ternium SA (TX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $8.57B
• Dividend Yield: 7.02%
• Average Volume (3M): 249.44K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 14.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.50
• Revenue Growth: -16.69%
• EPS Growth: 585.38%
• Country: US
• Employees: 33,949
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Steel
• EPS (TTM): 0.33
• Shares Outstanding: 196,307,680
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 333,118
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 249,441
• PEG Ratio: -0.02
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.63
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.48
• P/FCF Ratio: -40.04
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.12
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.62
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.09
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 5.92
• 1Y Price Target: $39.00
• Price Target Upside: -10.39% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 65 Neutral
• Price Target: $47.00 ▲(8.00% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/20/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/20/26

TX scores as a mid-range cyclical: financial performance is pressured by weaker revenues/margins and negative 2025 free cash flow, partially offset by a solid balance sheet. Technicals are moderately positive with stable momentum and price above key longer-term averages. Valuation is supported by a high dividend yield and a moderate P/E. Earnings call commentary points to improving EBITDA into 2026 and declining CapEx longer term, but near-term headwinds (safety incidents, below-target margins, and a likely move to modest net debt) cap the score.

Positive Factors

Balance Sheet Strength

A sizable equity base and low industry leverage provide durable financial flexibility through steel cycles. This footing supports ongoing CapEx, dividends and strategic deals (e.g., Usiminas purchase), lowering refinancing risk and enabling investment when markets normalize.

Operating Cash Generation

Consistent multi‑year operating cash flow (~$1.9B–$2.8B historically, $2.3B in 2025) shows the core steel business converts sales to cash even amid price pressure. Strong OCF funds investment, services debt, and underpins a sustainable dividend policy over the medium term.

Downstream Expansion and Industrial Upgrading

New cold‑rolling, galvanizing and finishing capacity plus a slab plant increase value‑added product mix and enable higher‑margin automotive steel. Combined with green financing, the investment supports structural margin improvement and ESG differentiation versus commodity competitors.

Negative Factors

Revenue and Margin Weakness

Falling sales and materially compressed margins reflect weaker pricing and cyclical demand; this undermines sustainable earnings power. Until spreads and volumes recover, reaching management's 15–20% margin target is uncertain and earnings will remain sensitive to steel cycle swings.

Capital Intensity and Near‑Term Cash Strain

Elevated, near‑term CapEx to complete Pesqueria and upstream works will push leverage higher and pressure free cash flow. This reduces financial headroom, limits optionality for buybacks or extra dividends, and increases vulnerability to a prolonged demand downturn.

Safety, Impairments and Legal Risk

Repeated fatal incidents and impairment charges signal operational and governance risks that can create regulatory scrutiny, higher operating costs, insurance and reputational damage. Combined with litigation provisions, these factors increase profit volatility and capital allocation uncertainty.

Ternium SA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ternium S.A. manufactures, processes, and sells various steel products in Mexico, Argentina, Paraguay, Chile, Bolivia, Uruguay, Brazil, the United States, Colombia, Guatemala, Costa Rica, Honduras, El Salvador, and Nicaragua. It operates through two segments, Steel and Mining. The Steel segment offers slabs, billets and round bars, hot rolled flat products, merchant bars, reinforcing bars, stirrups and rods, tin plate and galvanized products, tubes, beams, insulated panels, roofing and cladding, roof tiles, steel decks, pre-engineered metal building systems, and pig iron products; and sells energy. The Mining segment sells iron ore and pellets. The company also provides medical and social; scrap; and engineering and other services, as well as operates as a distribution company. It serves various companies and small businesses in the construction, automotive, home appliances, agro, packaging, transport, and energy industries. The company was founded in 1961 and is based in Luxembourg City, Luxembourg. Ternium S.A. is a subsidiary of Techint Holdings S.à r.l.

How the Company Makes Money

Ternium generates revenue primarily through the sale of steel products, which are used in multiple industries, including construction, automotive, and consumer goods. The company's revenue model is based on direct sales to customers, with a significant portion coming from long-term contracts with major clients in various sectors. Additionally, Ternium benefits from vertical integration, controlling various stages of production from raw materials to finished products, which helps to optimize costs and improve margins. The company also engages in export activities, selling its products to international markets, which contributes to its revenue. Significant partnerships with key players in the automotive and construction industries enhance its market position and ensure steady demand for its products.

Ternium SA Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mixed fundamentals in a cyclical downturn: revenues declined in 2025 and margins compressed versus prior peaks, with a loss in 2024 and only modest profitability recovery in 2025. The balance sheet is a relative strength with manageable leverage, but free cash flow turned negative in 2025 despite healthy operating cash flow, raising near-term cash-conversion and capital discipline risk.

Income Statement

Revenue has been essentially flat in 2023–2024 and declined in 2025 (annual revenue down from ~$17.6B to ~$15.6B). Profitability has also been volatile: strong profits in 2021–2023, a small loss in 2024, and a return to modest profitability in 2025 (~$425M). Margins have compressed materially from 2021 peaks (2024 gross margin ~16% and negative net margin), suggesting weaker pricing/spreads and a more challenging steel cycle; the 2025 profit recovery is a positive, but overall earnings power looks less stable than earlier years.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is a relative strength with a large equity base (~$11.9B in 2024–2025) and moderate leverage (2024 debt-to-equity ~0.15). Total debt increased into 2025 (~$2.6B versus ~$1.8B in 2024), which reduces flexibility versus prior years, but leverage still appears manageable for the industry. Returns on equity swung from strong levels in 2021–2022 to negative in 2024, highlighting cyclicality in profitability even though the capital structure remains solid.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow remains healthy (roughly $1.9B–$2.8B across 2021–2025), indicating the core business is still generating cash through the cycle. However, free cash flow has weakened sharply—strongly positive in 2021–2023, barely positive in 2024, and negative in 2025 (~-$187M), implying heavier investment and/or working-capital pressure. Cash generation quality also deteriorated in 2024 with free cash flow only a small fraction of net results, and the 2025 negative free cash flow is a key near-term risk despite solid operating cash flow.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	15.61B	17.65B	17.61B	16.41B	16.09B
Gross Profit	2.35B	2.89B	5.26B	3.93B	6.20B
EBITDA	1.49B	1.67B	2.16B	3.33B	6.38B
Net Income	425.23M	-53.67M	676.04M	1.77B	3.83B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	23.62B	23.13B	24.18B	17.49B	17.10B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	3.13B	3.85B	3.82B	3.53B	2.57B
Total Debt	2.61B	1.79B	1.47B	771.85M	916.09M
Total Liabilities	7.47B	7.00B	7.37B	3.72B	4.86B
Stockholders Equity	11.94B	11.97B	12.42B	11.85B	10.54B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-187.23M	40.74M	1.04B	2.17B	2.15B
Operating Cash Flow	2.31B	1.91B	2.50B	2.75B	2.68B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.98B	-1.38B	-1.47B	-1.32B	-1.05B
Financing Cash Flow	-500.58M	-488.38M	-766.36M	-1.02B	-854.38M

Ternium SA Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 43.52
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 43.52 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 43.56, above the 50-day MA of 41.13, and above the 200-day MA of 34.44, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.71 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.77 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 44.38 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TX.

Ternium SA Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SIM	73 Outperform	$5.17B	26.95	5.84%	―	-16.81%	-67.68%
CMC	67 Neutral	$8.73B	20.28	10.51%	1.02%	-1.61%	-81.36%
TX	65 Neutral	$8.57B	14.93	4.80%	7.02%	-16.69%	585.38%
GGB	63 Neutral	$7.76B	15.60	5.21%	2.92%	-2.53%	-36.08%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
SID	53 Neutral	$2.17B	-8.19	-10.50%	―	-5.79%	-5.30%
CLF	49 Neutral	$6.02B	―	-22.96%	―	-6.76%	-255.94%

Ternium SA Corporate Events

Ternium Files 2025 Consolidated Results, Books New Provision on Usiminas Litigation

On February 17, 2026, Ternium S.A. filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, furnishing its consolidated financial statements as of December 31, 2025. The filing also includes comparative figures for 2024 and 2023, offering investors and analysts full income, balance sheet, cash flow and equity data for assessing performance trends.

For 2025, Ternium reported net sales of $15.61 billion, down from $17.65 billion in 2024, with gross profit declining to $2.35 billion and operating income dropping to $705 million. Results were further affected by ongoing litigation related to its Usiminas stake, for which Ternium recorded a $117.4 million provision in 2025 following a larger $410.2 million charge in 2024, underscoring continuing legal and financial risks around that investment.

The most recent analyst rating on (TX) stock is a Buy with a $44.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ternium SA stock, see the TX Stock Forecast page.

Ternium Posts Lower 2025 Earnings but Lifts Dividend as Mining Volumes Rise

Ternium S.A. reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on February 18, 2026, showing essentially stable steel shipments but continued softness in pricing and profitability. In the fourth quarter, steel shipments were 3.7 million tons, mining shipments rose to 3.4 million tons, net sales slipped to $3.8 billion, and adjusted EBITDA reached $395 million with a 10.5% margin, while net income came in at $171 million and earnings per ADS were $0.62.

For full-year 2025, Ternium posted $15.6 billion in net sales, down 12% from 2024, with operating income falling 44% to $705 million and adjusted EBITDA declining 24% to $1.54 billion as weaker steel prices weighed on margins. The company generated $528 million in fourth-quarter cash from operations, invested $463 million in capex, and proposed an annual dividend of $2.70 per ADS, signaling a continued commitment to shareholder returns despite a tougher earnings environment and shifting product and mining mix.

The most recent analyst rating on (TX) stock is a Buy with a $44.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ternium SA stock, see the TX Stock Forecast page.

Ternium Completes $315 Million Purchase of Nippon Group’s Remaining Stake in Usiminas Control Block

On February 10, 2026, Ternium S.A. announced that its subsidiary Ternium Investments S.à r.l. completed the acquisition of 153.1 million ordinary shares of Brazilian steelmaker Usiminas from Nippon Steel Corporation and Mitsubishi Corporation. The all-cash deal, valued at approximately $315.2 million, gives Ternium full control over the Nippon Group’s remaining stake in Usiminas’ control group, consolidating Ternium’s influence in the Brazilian steel market and potentially reinforcing its strategic position in the regional steel industry supply chain.

The completion of this previously disclosed transaction marks a significant step in Ternium’s expansion strategy in Brazil’s steel sector. By increasing its shareholding in Usiminas’ control group, Ternium may gain greater operational and governance leverage in one of Latin America’s key steel producers, with implications for competitive dynamics and long-term integration across its regional operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (TX) stock is a Buy with a $44.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ternium SA stock, see the TX Stock Forecast page.