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Ternium SA (TX)
NYSE:TX
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Ternium SA
(NYSE:TX)
Rating:70Neutral
Price Target:
$36.00
▲(10.74% Upside)
Ternium SA (TX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$6.51B
Dividend Yield8.14%
Average Volume (3M)215.33K
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.2
Beta (1Y)0.49
Revenue Growth-16.83%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees33,949
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength65
IndustrySteel
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.28
Shares Outstanding196,307,680
10 Day Avg. Volume194,563
30 Day Avg. Volume215,329
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)N/A
P/FCF RatioN/A
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.49
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.58
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.23
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.68
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$34.40Price Target Upside5.81% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering5
Ternium SA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionTernium SA (TX) is a leading steel manufacturing company based in Latin America, primarily engaged in the production and processing of a wide range of steel products. The company operates in several sectors, including construction, automotive, and appliances, providing high-quality steel solutions to meet diverse industrial needs. Ternium's core products include hot-rolled, cold-rolled, and coated steel sheets, as well as long steel products and steel slabs, which are utilized in various applications across multiple industries.
How the Company Makes MoneyTernium generates revenue primarily through the sale of steel products to various sectors, including construction, automotive, and consumer goods. The company operates on a revenue model that includes both direct sales to end-users and sales through distributors. Key revenue streams consist of the sale of flat steel products, long steel products, and steel processing services. Additionally, Ternium benefits from strategic partnerships with major industries that require substantial steel supplies, which helps secure long-term contracts and stable revenue. Market conditions, such as demand for steel and raw material prices, significantly influence the company's earnings, alongside its operational efficiencies and capacity utilization rates.
Ternium SA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a generally positive outlook with strong EBITDA growth and cash flow generation. However, challenges in the Brazilian market and ongoing litigation adjustments were notable concerns. Despite these challenges, Ternium remains optimistic about future performance and expansion projects.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Improved EBITDA Performance
Ternium's adjusted EBITDA increased by 25% in the second quarter, mainly driven by stronger realized steel prices in Mexico.
Cash Flow and Balance Sheet Strength
Cash from operations in the second quarter totaled $1 billion, aided by a significant reduction in working capital. The cash position remained solid at $1 billion at the end of June.
Positive Outlook for Mexico
Ternium expects sequential growth in shipments in Mexico due to government measures against unfair trade practices, and continued expansion projects in Pesqueria.
Sustainability Commitment
Release of a sustainable report reaffirming Ternium's commitment to environmental performance, social responsibility, and transparency.
Negative Updates
Challenges in the Brazilian Market
The Brazilian steel market faces challenges due to a surge of unfair imported steel, particularly from China, undermining local competitiveness.
Litigation Adjustments
Net income for the second quarter included a $40 million provision adjustment related to ongoing litigation associated with the acquisition of a participation in Usiminas.
Decline in Shipments
Shipments declined primarily in Mexico and the U.S., partially mitigated by higher volumes in the Southern region.
Company Guidance
In the second quarter of 2025, Ternium reported a 25% increase in adjusted EBITDA, primarily due to higher realized steel prices in Mexico, despite a slight rise in cost per ton. The company's net income for the quarter was $259 million, with an adjusted net income of $299 million after excluding a $40 million provision adjustment related to Usiminas litigation. Ternium anticipates a sequential improvement in EBITDA in the third quarter, supported by expected shipment growth in Mexico, Argentina, and stable volumes in Brazil. The company is implementing cost reduction strategies, targeting an additional $300 million in savings for the year, excluding raw material price effects. Ternium's capital allocation strategy involves significant ongoing investments, with a peak CapEx of $800 million in the second quarter and a forecasted total of $2.5 to $2.6 billion for the year. The company remains committed to sustaining dividend payments while managing its extensive CapEx plan.Ternium SA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Ternium SA's financial performance is under pressure with declining revenues and profitability. The balance sheet remains strong with low leverage, but cash flow concerns due to negative free cash flow present liquidity risks.Income Statement
Ternium SA shows a declining revenue trend over the TTM, with a significant drop in net income, resulting in negative net profit margins. The gross profit margin has also decreased, reflecting increased cost pressures. EBIT and EBITDA margins have deteriorated, indicating operational challenges. However, past years showed stronger profitability, hinting at potential recovery.55
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet remains solid with a low debt-to-equity ratio, implying prudent financial leverage. The equity ratio is robust, underscoring strong asset backing. However, the recent decline in stockholders' equity due to net losses could pose future risks if not addressed.75
Positive
Cash Flow
Recent cash flow performance is concerning, with a negative free cash flow in the TTM reflecting high capital expenditures and declining operating cash flows. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong, but the trend of declining free cash flow indicates potential liquidity challenges if the situation persists.40
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 16.71B | 17.65B | 17.61B | 16.41B | 16.09B | 8.74B |
| Gross Profit | 2.29B | 2.88B | 5.26B | 3.93B | 6.20B | 1.64B |
| EBITDA | 1.26B | 1.88B | 2.21B | 3.33B | 5.96B | 1.77B |
| Net Income | -341.77M | -53.67M | 676.04M | 1.77B | 3.83B | 778.47M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 23.72B | 23.13B | 24.18B | 17.49B | 17.10B | 12.86B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 3.75B | 3.85B | 3.82B | 3.53B | 2.57B | 1.35B |
| Total Debt | 2.69B | 2.44B | 1.47B | 1.27B | 1.74B | 2.02B |
| Total Liabilities | 7.18B | 7.00B | 7.37B | 3.72B | 4.86B | 4.41B |
| Stockholders Equity | 12.11B | 11.97B | 12.42B | 11.85B | 10.54B | 7.29B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -299.70M | 40.74M | 1.04B | 2.17B | 2.15B | 1.20B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.59B | 1.91B | 2.50B | 2.75B | 2.68B | 1.76B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.20B | -1.38B | -1.47B | -1.32B | -1.05B | -1.18B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -254.61M | -488.38M | -766.36M | -1.02B | -854.38M | -506.25M |
Ternium SA Technical Analysis
Positive
32.51
Price Trends
31.58
Positive
29.51
Positive
29.23
Positive
Market Momentum
0.43
Negative
53.05
Neutral
66.27
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 32.51 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 32.21, above the 50-day MA of 31.58, and above the 200-day MA of 29.23, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.43 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.05 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.27 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TX.
Ternium SA Risk Analysis
Ternium SA disclosed 47 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ternium SA reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Ternium SA Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $6.44B | 186.98 | 0.88% | 1.26% | -5.64% | -93.26% | |
71 Outperform | $5.93B | 10.84 | 5.77% | 3.56% | -6.55% | -37.93% | |
70 Neutral | $6.51B | 11.25 | 4.89% | 8.14% | -16.83% | ― | |
69 Neutral | $4.69B | 13.33 | 10.49% | ― | -18.58% | -35.32% | |
64 Neutral | ― | ― | -14.79% | -88.78% | |||
61 Neutral | $10.31B | 6.18 | 0.76% | 2.94% | 3.30% | -36.34% | |
50 Neutral | $1.76B | ― | -15.57% | 16.51% | -10.77% | -191.87% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
TX
Ternium SA
32.51
1.66
5.38%
CMC
Commercial Metals Company
57.01
4.91
9.42%
GGB
Gerdau SA
3.06
-0.09
-2.86%
SIM
Grupo Simec SA De CV
26.88
-0.37
-1.36%
SID
Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional
1.39
-0.66
-32.20%
X
United States Steel
54.84
17.59
47.22%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.