Ternium (TX)
NYSE:TX
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Ternium SA
(NYSE:TX)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$51.00
▲(20.57% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is driven primarily by mixed financial performance—solid balance sheet and improving profitability, but weak/negative free cash flow and higher working-capital needs. Technicals are supportive with price above major moving averages and positive momentum, while valuation is appealing (low P/E and strong dividend). Earnings-call guidance is positive but tempered by near-term cost, import, and balance-sheet headwinds.
Positive Factors
Balance Sheet Strength
Ternium’s low reported leverage and a sizable equity base provide durable financial flexibility to fund capex, withstand steel-cycle downturns, and pursue strategic investments without immediate refinancing stress. This structural cushion supports long-term operational continuity and credit resilience.
Negative Factors
Weak Free Cash Flow
A small but persistent negative free cash flow, despite solid operating inflows, signals elevated investment and working-capital absorption. Over 2–6 months this constrains discretionary spending, raises dependence on financing as capex and acquisitions continue, and reduces margin for error in a cyclical downturn.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Balance Sheet Strength
Ternium’s low reported leverage and a sizable equity base provide durable financial flexibility to fund capex, withstand steel-cycle downturns, and pursue strategic investments without immediate refinancing stress. This structural cushion supports long-term operational continuity and credit resilience.
Read all positive factors
Ternium SA (TX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$8.41B
Dividend Yield7.02%
Average Volume (3M)287.54K
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.2
Beta (1Y)0.59
Revenue Growth-11.93%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees33,949
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustrySteel
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.92
Shares Outstanding196,307,680
10 Day Avg. Volume367,225
30 Day Avg. Volume287,541
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.02
Price to Book (P/B)0.63
Price to Sales (P/S)0.48
P/FCF Ratio-40.04
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.15
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.62
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.96
Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.98
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$45.50Price Target Upside7.57% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)4.26
Revenue Forecast (FY)$16.51B
Ternium SA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ternium S.A. manufactures, processes, and sells various steel products in Mexico, Argentina, Paraguay, Chile, Bolivia, Uruguay, Brazil, the United States, Colombia, Guatemala, Costa Rica, Honduras, El Salvador, and Nicaragua. It operates through t...
How the Company Makes Money
Ternium makes money primarily by selling steel products and related value-added steel processing services to industrial customers, distributors, and end users. Its core revenue stream is the sale of finished steel—particularly flat products (e.g.,...
Ternium SA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a constructive tone: operating metrics show clear improvement (12% margin, +21% sequential adjusted EBITDA, $372M net income), Pesqueria project is ahead of plan and innovation/IP wins strengthen long‑term positioning, and Mexican government measures support demand recovery. Offsetting these positives are notable near‑term headwinds — a ~30% surge in Brazilian imports, weaker Argentina demand, rising cost pressures, increased working capital needs, a $48M litigation charge, and an expected move from net cash to net debt this year due to CapEx and an acquisition payment. On balance, the company highlights stronger profitability trends, significant strategic progress and resilience, with manageable but meaningful near‑term challenges.Positive Updates
Margin Recovery and Improved Profitability
Earnings margin recovered to 12% in Q1 2026, reflecting improved market environment in Mexico, focus on profitability over volume in Brazil, and operational efficiency initiatives.
Negative Updates
Mexico 2025 Demand Collapse
Apparent steel consumption in Mexico fell ~10% in 2025 due to uncertainty from U.S. trade actions; while recovery signals are present, the large prior decline weighed on volumes and demand visibility.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Margin Recovery and Improved Profitability
Earnings margin recovered to 12% in Q1 2026, reflecting improved market environment in Mexico, focus on profitability over volume in Brazil, and operational efficiency initiatives.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that Q1 saw a continued recovery with an earnings margin of 12% and adjusted EBITDA up 21% sequentially; Q1 net income was $372 million (including a $122 million deferred tax gain and a $48 million litigation provision), and the quarter closed with net cash of $327 million after a $350 million payment for Usiminas shares and a $150 million Techgen loan collection. They expect adjusted EBITDA margin to keep rising, shipments to trend higher in Q2 (driven by Mexico and Argentina), and sales growth to require higher working capital; Mexico’s apparent steel consumption fell ~10% in 2025 but is forecast to recover ~4% in 2026, Pesqueria’s cold‑roll and galvanizing lines should be near full capacity by October with upstream ramp‑up through 2027 and automotive qualification targeted for 2028. In Brazil, imports jumped ~30% q/q and are expected to normalize by H2 while automotive production is seen growing ~4% this year; CapEx is set to fall from $2.5 billion in 2025 to much lower in 2026 and roughly $1.0–1.2 billion in 2027, and the company expects to move from net cash to net debt this year while maintaining its dividend policy.Ternium SA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
44
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 15.58B | 15.61B | 17.65B | 17.61B | 16.41B | 16.09B |
| Gross Profit | 2.44B | 2.34B | 2.89B | 5.26B | 3.93B | 6.20B |
| EBITDA | 1.62B | 1.42B | 1.67B | 2.16B | 3.33B | 6.38B |
| Net Income | 570.25M | 425.23M | -53.67M | 676.04M | 1.77B | 3.83B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 24.24B | 23.62B | 23.13B | 24.18B | 17.49B | 17.10B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 3.14B | 3.13B | 3.85B | 3.82B | 3.53B | 2.57B |
| Total Debt | 3.01B | 2.61B | 1.79B | 1.47B | 771.85M | 916.09M |
| Total Liabilities | 7.74B | 7.47B | 7.00B | 7.37B | 3.72B | 4.86B |
| Stockholders Equity | 12.20B | 11.94B | 11.97B | 12.42B | 11.85B | 10.54B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -64.72M | -187.23M | 40.74M | 1.04B | 2.17B | 2.15B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.32B | 2.31B | 1.91B | 2.50B | 2.75B | 2.68B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.21B | -1.98B | -1.38B | -1.47B | -1.32B | -1.05B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -321.67M | -500.58M | -488.38M | -766.36M | -1.02B | -854.38M |
Ternium SA Technical Analysis
Positive
42.30
Price Trends
40.60
Positive
40.70
Positive
37.21
Positive
Market Momentum
0.68
Positive
47.95
Neutral
10.43
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 42.3 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 43.13, above the 50-day MA of 40.60, and above the 200-day MA of 37.21, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.68 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.95 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.43 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TX.
Ternium SA Risk Analysis
Ternium SA disclosed 47 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ternium SA reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 2 New Risks
1.
Ternium's strategic growth projects could be delayed, the cost of those projects could increase, or Ternium's competitiveness could be affected, if the operations of certain suppliers of heavy equipment are disrupted by geopolitical risk, adversely affecting Ternium's growth opportunities and profitability. Q4, 2023
2.
Certain Regulatory Risks And Litigation Risks Ternium faces a significant loss contingency in Brazil in connection with its acquisition of a participation in the control group of Usiminas. Q4, 2023
Ternium SA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $8.41B | 9.25 | 4.74% | 7.02% | -11.93% | ― | |
64 Neutral | $7.77B | 21.86 | 11.88% | 1.02% | 8.38% | 626.64% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
60 Neutral | $5.20B | 12.42 | 4.48% | ― | -5.87% | -81.34% | |
56 Neutral | $8.53B | 9.20 | 2.53% | 2.92% | 4.46% | -47.34% | |
48 Neutral | $6.08B | -5.03 | -20.91% | ― | 1.58% | 3.88% | |
41 Neutral | $1.60B | -3.52 | -12.83% | ― | 2.16% | 20.46% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
TX
Ternium SA
42.19
15.28
56.81%
CLF
Cleveland-Cliffs
10.15
2.73
36.79%
CMC
Commercial Metals Company
69.33
22.42
47.81%
GGB
Gerdau SA
4.56
1.89
70.98%
SIM
Grupo Simec SA De CV
30.32
3.28
12.13%
SID
Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional
1.18
-0.44
-27.16%
Ternium SA Corporate Events
Ternium Files First-Quarter 2026 Consolidated Interim Results
May 6, 2026
On May 5, 2026, Ternium S.A. filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, furnishing its consolidated condensed interim financial statements as of March 31, 2026. The filing covers the company’s financial position and r...
Ternium Boosts Profit and Invests Heavily as Q1 2026 Steel Margins Improve
May 5, 2026
For the first quarter ended March 31, 2026, Ternium reported largely stable steel shipments at 3.7 million tons and a 4% year-on-year decline in mining shipments to 2.8 million tons, with net sales flat at $3.93 billion. Operating income more than...
Ternium Trims 2025 Dividend Proposal Ahead of May 12 Shareholder Meeting
Apr 16, 2026
Ternium S.A. has issued a supplement to its March 20, 2026, shareholder meeting materials ahead of its Annual General Meeting in Luxembourg on May 12, 2026, revising the proposed allocation of results for the year ended December 31, 2025. The Boar...
Ternium Cuts 2025 Dividend Proposal to Bolster Balance Sheet Amid Global Uncertainty
Apr 15, 2026
On April 15, 2026, Ternium S.A. announced that its board had revised the proposed dividend for fiscal 2025, cutting the recommended payout to $2.20 per ADS from $2.70, for a total of $432 million including an interim dividend already paid in the f...
Ternium Files 2025 Form 20-F With U.S. SEC
Apr 1, 2026
Ternium S.A., a major Americas-based steel producer with a growing focus on low-carbon technologies and community development in Latin America, has reinforced its positioning as a key supplier to manufacturing and construction customers across the...
Ternium Sets May 12, 2026 Annual Shareholders’ Meeting in Luxembourg
Mar 20, 2026
Ternium S.A. said on March 20, 2026, that its board has called the company’s annual general meeting of shareholders for May 12, 2026, at its registered office in Luxembourg. Holders of ADSs as of March 30, 2026, will be able to direct the de...
Ternium Calls May 12, 2026 Shareholders’ Meeting to Approve 2025 Results and Governance Matters
Mar 20, 2026
Ternium S.A. has convened its Annual General Meeting of Shareholders for May 12, 2026, in Luxembourg, where investors will be asked to approve the company’s consolidated financial statements and annual accounts for the year ended December 31...
Ternium Files 2025 Annual Report with U.S. SEC on Form 6-K
Mar 20, 2026
On March 20, 2026, Ternium S.A. filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to furnish its annual report for the year ended December 31, 2025. The filing, signed by attorneys-in-fact Guillermo Etchepareborda and Sebastiá...
Ternium Files 2025 Consolidated Results, Books New Provision on Usiminas Litigation
Feb 18, 2026
On February 17, 2026, Ternium S.A. filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, furnishing its consolidated financial statements as of December 31, 2025. The filing also includes comparative figures for 2024 and 2023, offerin...
Ternium Posts Lower 2025 Earnings but Lifts Dividend as Mining Volumes Rise
Feb 18, 2026
Ternium S.A. reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on February 18, 2026, showing essentially stable steel shipments but continued softness in pricing and profitability. In the fourth quarter, steel shipments were 3.7 million tons,...
Ternium Completes $315 Million Purchase of Nippon Group’s Remaining Stake in Usiminas Control Block
Feb 10, 2026
On February 10, 2026, Ternium S.A. announced that its subsidiary Ternium Investments S.à r.l. completed the acquisition of 153.1 million ordinary shares of Brazilian steelmaker Usiminas from Nippon Steel Corporation and Mitsubishi Corporation...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.