Ternium SA (TX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $7.13B
• Dividend Yield: 7.43%
• Average Volume (3M): 236.10K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.55
• Revenue Growth: -16.69%
• EPS Growth: 585.38%
• Country: US
• Employees: 33,949
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Steel
• EPS (TTM): 0.25
• Shares Outstanding: 196,307,680
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 199,308
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 236,098
• PEG Ratio: 0.98
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.48
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.32
• P/FCF Ratio: 140.13
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.49
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.68
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.84
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 6.35
• 1Y Price Target: $38.70
• Price Target Upside: 6.52% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: $41.00 ▲(12.85% Upside)

Ternium SA's overall stock score reflects a combination of strong technical indicators and attractive valuation, offset by mixed financial performance and challenges highlighted in the earnings call. The stock's upward momentum and high dividend yield are significant positives, while the financial performance and anticipated EBITDA decline present risks.

Ternium SA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ternium S.A. manufactures, processes, and sells various steel products in Mexico, Argentina, Paraguay, Chile, Bolivia, Uruguay, Brazil, the United States, Colombia, Guatemala, Costa Rica, Honduras, El Salvador, and Nicaragua. It operates through two segments, Steel and Mining. The Steel segment offers slabs, billets and round bars, hot rolled flat products, merchant bars, reinforcing bars, stirrups and rods, tin plate and galvanized products, tubes, beams, insulated panels, roofing and cladding, roof tiles, steel decks, pre-engineered metal building systems, and pig iron products; and sells energy. The Mining segment sells iron ore and pellets. The company also provides medical and social; scrap; and engineering and other services, as well as operates as a distribution company. It serves various companies and small businesses in the construction, automotive, home appliances, agro, packaging, transport, and energy industries. The company was founded in 1961 and is based in Luxembourg City, Luxembourg. Ternium S.A. is a subsidiary of Techint Holdings S.à r.l.

How the Company Makes Money

Ternium generates revenue primarily through the sale of steel products to various sectors, including construction, automotive, and consumer goods. The company operates on a revenue model that includes both direct sales to end-users and sales through distributors. Key revenue streams consist of the sale of flat steel products, long steel products, and steel processing services. Additionally, Ternium benefits from strategic partnerships with major industries that require substantial steel supplies, which helps secure long-term contracts and stable revenue. Market conditions, such as demand for steel and raw material prices, significantly influence the company's earnings, alongside its operational efficiencies and capacity utilization rates.

Ternium SA Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Ternium SA shows a mixed financial performance. The income statement reveals declining revenue growth and reduced profitability margins, with a positive net profit margin of 3.68%. The balance sheet is strong with low leverage, but cash flow challenges are evident with negative free cash flow, indicating potential liquidity issues.

Income Statement

Ternium SA's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM data indicates a decline in revenue growth at -3.38%, reflecting challenges in maintaining sales momentum. Gross profit margin has decreased to 13.36% from higher levels in previous years, indicating pressure on cost management. However, the company has managed to maintain a positive net profit margin of 3.68% in the TTM, recovering from a negative margin in 2024. The EBIT and EBITDA margins remain stable, suggesting operational efficiency despite revenue challenges.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Ternium SA is relatively strong, with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.21, indicating prudent financial leverage. The equity ratio stands at 50.19%, reflecting a solid capital structure. However, the return on equity has decreased to 4.95% in the TTM, down from higher levels in previous years, suggesting reduced profitability on shareholder investments.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals some concerns, with a negative free cash flow in the TTM, indicating potential liquidity issues. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.53, suggesting that cash generation from operations is not fully covering net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting challenges in converting profits into free cash flow.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	15.71B	17.65B	17.61B	16.41B	16.09B	8.74B
Gross Profit	2.20B	2.89B	5.26B	3.93B	6.20B	1.64B
EBITDA	1.68B	1.67B	2.16B	3.33B	5.96B	1.77B
Net Income	293.41M	-53.67M	676.04M	1.77B	3.83B	778.47M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	23.47B	23.13B	24.18B	17.49B	17.10B	12.86B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.76B	3.85B	3.82B	3.53B	2.57B	1.35B
Total Debt	2.05B	2.44B	1.47B	1.01B	1.74B	2.02B
Total Liabilities	7.17B	7.00B	7.37B	3.72B	4.86B	4.41B
Stockholders Equity	11.98B	11.97B	12.42B	11.85B	10.54B	7.29B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-166.57M	40.74M	1.04B	2.17B	2.15B	1.20B
Operating Cash Flow	1.72B	1.91B	2.50B	2.75B	2.68B	1.76B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.01B	-1.38B	-1.47B	-1.32B	-1.05B	-1.18B
Financing Cash Flow	-419.25M	-488.38M	-766.36M	-1.02B	-854.38M	-506.25M

Ternium SA Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 36.33
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 36.33 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 35.48, above the 50-day MA of 34.78, and above the 200-day MA of 30.26, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.41 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.85 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 56.45 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TX.

Ternium SA Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TX	73 Outperform	$7.13B	12.42	4.80%	7.43%	-16.69%	585.38%
SIM	73 Outperform	$4.62B	23.68	5.84%	―	-16.81%	-67.68%
GGB	71 Outperform	$6.71B	13.40	5.21%	3.10%	-2.53%	-36.08%
CMC	70 Neutral	$6.54B	79.48	1.99%	1.22%	-1.61%	-81.36%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
SID	54 Neutral	$2.23B	-5.50	-10.50%	14.25%	-5.79%	-5.30%
CLF	51 Neutral	$6.11B	―	-27.16%	―	-6.76%	-255.94%

Ternium SA Corporate Events

Ternium Expands Stake in Usiminas with $315.2 Million Acquisition

On November 5, 2025, Ternium S.A. announced that its subsidiary, Ternium Investments S.à r.l., has entered into an agreement to acquire the remaining shares from Nippon Steel Corporation and Mitsubishi Corporation in the control group of Usinas Siderúrgicas de Minas Gerais S.A. (Usiminas). This acquisition, valued at approximately $315.2 million, will increase Ternium’s stake in Usiminas from 51.5% to 83.1%, subject to approval by Brazil’s antitrust authorities. This move is set to enhance Ternium’s influence in the Brazilian steel market and aligns with its strategy to maximize Usiminas’ potential, benefiting all stakeholders involved.

Ternium S.A. Reports Decline in Financial Performance as of September 2025

On October 28, 2025, Ternium S.A. released its consolidated financial statements for the period ending September 30, 2025, showing a decline in net sales and gross profit compared to the previous year. The financial results indicate a challenging market environment, impacting the company’s profitability and potentially affecting its strategic positioning in the steel industry.

Ternium S.A. Reports Q3 2025 Financial Results Amid Challenges

On October 28, 2025, Ternium S.A. reported its financial results for the third quarter and the first nine months of 2025, ending September 30. The company experienced a net loss of $270 million in the third quarter, attributed to a $405 million non-cash charge related to a write-down of deferred tax assets at Usiminas and a $32 million loss from ongoing litigation. Despite these challenges, Ternium saw a slight increase in steel and mining product shipments compared to the previous quarter, with adjusted EBITDA rising to $420 million. The company also announced an interim dividend of $0.90 per ADS, reflecting its commitment to returning value to shareholders.