Ternium (TX)
NYSE:TX
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Ternium SA
(NYSE:TX)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$42.00
▲(11.32% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/20/26
TX scores as a mid-range cyclical: financial performance is pressured by weaker revenues/margins and negative 2025 free cash flow, partially offset by a solid balance sheet. Technicals are moderately positive with stable momentum and price above key longer-term averages. Valuation is supported by a high dividend yield and a moderate P/E. Earnings call commentary points to improving EBITDA into 2026 and declining CapEx longer term, but near-term headwinds (safety incidents, below-target margins, and a likely move to modest net debt) cap the score.
Positive Factors
Downstream expansion (Pesqueria ramp-up)
Pesqueria's new cold‑rolling, galvanizing and finishing capacity plus the planned slab plant create upstream-downstream integration that raises the share of higher‑value products. Over 2–6 months this supports pricing power, automotive-grade sales, lower CO2 intensity and durable margin uplift as ramp stabilizes.
Negative Factors
Revenue decline and margin compression
A 2025 revenue decline and materially compressed margins (full‑year EBITDA margin ~10% vs. a 15–20% targeted normalized range) highlight cyclical sensitivity. Structural exposure to commodity price spreads and end‑market demand reduces earnings predictability and long‑run return on invested capital.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Downstream expansion (Pesqueria ramp-up)
Pesqueria's new cold‑rolling, galvanizing and finishing capacity plus the planned slab plant create upstream-downstream integration that raises the share of higher‑value products. Over 2–6 months this supports pricing power, automotive-grade sales, lower CO2 intensity and durable margin uplift as ramp stabilizes.
Read all positive factors
Ternium SA (TX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$7.81B
Dividend Yield7.02%
Average Volume (3M)153.98K
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.6
Beta (1Y)0.52
Revenue Growth-16.69%
EPS Growth585.38%
CountryUS
Employees33,949
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustrySteel
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.33
Shares Outstanding196,307,680
10 Day Avg. Volume117,433
30 Day Avg. Volume153,981
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.02
Price to Book (P/B)0.63
Price to Sales (P/S)0.48
P/FCF Ratio-40.04
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.17
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.59
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.00
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.06
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$39.50Price Target Upside4.69% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)5.04
Revenue Forecast (FY)$16.67B
Ternium SA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ternium S.A. manufactures, processes, and sells various steel products in Mexico, Argentina, Paraguay, Chile, Bolivia, Uruguay, Brazil, the United States, Colombia, Guatemala, Costa Rica, Honduras, El Salvador, and Nicaragua. It operates through t...
How the Company Makes Money
Ternium makes money primarily by selling steel products and related value-added steel processing services to industrial customers, distributors, and end users. Its core revenue stream is the sale of finished steel—particularly flat products (e.g.,...
Ternium SA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 18, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a balanced mix of constructive operational and financial progress (notably $250M of cost savings, $2.3B cash from operations, green financing and downstream capacity ramp-up at Pesqueria) alongside material near-term challenges (multiple fatal safety incidents, a mining impairment charge, Q4 shipment and price pressure, elevated CapEx driving a temporary move to net debt and margins remaining below historical targets). Management is cautiously optimistic about sequential margin improvement in 2026 and longer-term upside from regional trade remedies and Pesqueria’s upstream integration, but significant uncertainties and near-term headwinds temper the outlook.Positive Updates
Cost Reduction Program
Implemented cost reduction and efficiency initiatives that generated $250,000,000 in savings in 2025 versus 2024, including blast furnace stability improvements, service contract renegotiations, optimized iron ore sourcing and logistics gains.
Negative Updates
Fatal Safety Incidents
The company reported multiple fatal accidents in 2025 (Turnure Mexico and Ternium Brazil during the quarter) and a fatality at Usiminas; management described these as significant setbacks and committed to reinforcing safety programs.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Cost Reduction Program
Implemented cost reduction and efficiency initiatives that generated $250,000,000 in savings in 2025 versus 2024, including blast furnace stability improvements, service contract renegotiations, optimized iron ore sourcing and logistics gains.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided to a clear near‑term financial and operational trajectory: 2026 capex is expected to fall to about $2,000,000,000 (down from peak spending, with Q4 capex at $463,000,000), then to roughly $1,200,000,000 in 2027 and ~$800,000,000 in 2028; management expects sequentially higher adjusted EBITDA in Q1 2026 driven by higher EBITDA margins and shipment growth (Mexico shipments seen rising as Canacero forecasts ~4% market growth and Ternium expects to outgrow that via share gains), after reporting a ~10% EBITDA margin in 2025 (company target range remains ~15–20% normalized with a goal of reaching ~15%); cash generation in 2025 was strong at $2,300,000,000, Q4 net income was $171,000,000, Q4 free cash flow was broadly neutral, Q4 net cash stood near $700,000,000 (management expects moving to modest net debt in 2026 before recovery in 2027), cost savings program delivered ~$250,000,000 in 2025, and the board proposed a $2.70/ADS dividend for FY2025 (with $0.90 interim paid), implying a dividend yield north of 6%.Ternium SA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
54
Neutral
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 15.61B | 17.65B | 17.61B | 16.41B | 16.09B |
| Gross Profit | 2.34B | 2.89B | 5.26B | 3.93B | 6.20B |
| EBITDA | 1.42B | 1.67B | 2.16B | 3.33B | 6.38B |
| Net Income | 425.23M | -53.67M | 676.04M | 1.77B | 3.83B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 23.62B | 23.13B | 24.18B | 17.49B | 17.10B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 3.13B | 3.85B | 3.82B | 3.53B | 2.57B |
| Total Debt | 2.61B | 1.79B | 1.47B | 771.85M | 916.09M |
| Total Liabilities | 7.47B | 7.00B | 7.37B | 3.72B | 4.86B |
| Stockholders Equity | 11.94B | 11.97B | 12.42B | 11.85B | 10.54B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -187.23M | 40.74M | 1.04B | 2.17B | 2.15B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.31B | 1.91B | 2.50B | 2.75B | 2.68B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.98B | -1.38B | -1.47B | -1.32B | -1.05B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -500.58M | -488.38M | -766.36M | -1.02B | -854.38M |
Ternium SA Technical Analysis
Positive
37.73
Price Trends
41.35
Negative
39.93
Negative
36.33
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.32
Negative
49.79
Neutral
57.14
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 37.73 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 38.91, below the 50-day MA of 41.35, and above the 200-day MA of 36.33, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.32 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.79 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 57.14 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TX.
Ternium SA Risk Analysis
Ternium SA disclosed 47 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ternium SA reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 2 New Risks
1.
Ternium's strategic growth projects could be delayed, the cost of those projects could increase, or Ternium's competitiveness could be affected, if the operations of certain suppliers of heavy equipment are disrupted by geopolitical risk, adversely affecting Ternium's growth opportunities and profitability. Q4, 2023
2.
Certain Regulatory Risks And Litigation Risks Ternium faces a significant loss contingency in Brazil in connection with its acquisition of a participation in the control group of Usiminas. Q4, 2023
Ternium SA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $5.17B | 61.64 | 6.07% | ― | -16.81% | -67.68% | |
65 Neutral | $7.81B | 17.63 | 3.53% | 7.02% | -16.69% | 585.38% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
61 Neutral | $6.78B | 21.86 | 11.88% | 1.02% | -1.61% | -81.36% | |
61 Neutral | $7.29B | 29.29 | 2.53% | 2.92% | -2.53% | -36.08% | |
45 Neutral | $4.97B | -4.42 | -24.89% | ― | -6.76% | -255.94% | |
45 Neutral | $1.63B | -5.92 | -13.62% | ― | -5.79% | -5.30% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
TX
Ternium SA
39.79
15.62
64.64%
CLF
Cleveland-Cliffs
8.71
0.76
9.56%
CMC
Commercial Metals Company
61.17
17.90
41.37%
GGB
Gerdau SA
3.79
1.35
55.20%
SIM
Grupo Simec SA De CV
30.20
2.88
10.54%
SID
Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional
1.24
-0.22
-15.07%
Ternium SA Corporate Events
Ternium Sets May 12, 2026 Annual Shareholders’ Meeting in Luxembourg
Mar 20, 2026
Ternium S.A. said on March 20, 2026, that its board has called the company’s annual general meeting of shareholders for May 12, 2026, at its registered office in Luxembourg. Holders of ADSs as of March 30, 2026, will be able to direct the de...
Ternium Calls May 12, 2026 Shareholders’ Meeting to Approve 2025 Results and Governance Matters
Mar 20, 2026
Ternium S.A. has convened its Annual General Meeting of Shareholders for May 12, 2026, in Luxembourg, where investors will be asked to approve the company’s consolidated financial statements and annual accounts for the year ended December 31...
Ternium Files 2025 Annual Report with U.S. SEC on Form 6-K
Mar 20, 2026
On March 20, 2026, Ternium S.A. filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to furnish its annual report for the year ended December 31, 2025. The filing, signed by attorneys-in-fact Guillermo Etchepareborda and Sebastiá...
Ternium Files 2025 Consolidated Results, Books New Provision on Usiminas Litigation
Feb 18, 2026
On February 17, 2026, Ternium S.A. filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, furnishing its consolidated financial statements as of December 31, 2025. The filing also includes comparative figures for 2024 and 2023, offerin...
Ternium Posts Lower 2025 Earnings but Lifts Dividend as Mining Volumes Rise
Feb 18, 2026
Ternium S.A. reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on February 18, 2026, showing essentially stable steel shipments but continued softness in pricing and profitability. In the fourth quarter, steel shipments were 3.7 million tons,...
Ternium Completes $315 Million Purchase of Nippon Group’s Remaining Stake in Usiminas Control Block
Feb 10, 2026
On February 10, 2026, Ternium S.A. announced that its subsidiary Ternium Investments S.à r.l. completed the acquisition of 153.1 million ordinary shares of Brazilian steelmaker Usiminas from Nippon Steel Corporation and Mitsubishi Corporation...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.