Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (SID) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.52B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.24M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.26
• Revenue Growth: -5.79%
• EPS Growth: -5.30%
• Country: US
• Employees: 24,924
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Steel
• EPS (TTM): -0.08
• Shares Outstanding: 1,326,094,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,148,662
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,236,455
• PEG Ratio: 0.84
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.98
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.90
• P/FCF Ratio: -10.14
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 3.36
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.11
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 0.41
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 0.75
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.01
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $8.39B

• Rating: 45 Neutral
• Price Target: $1.00 ▼(-46.52% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/17/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/17/26

The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (multi-year losses, high leverage, and sharply negative 2025 operating/free cash flow). Technicals also remain bearish with the stock below key moving averages and negative MACD, despite oversold readings. Offsetting factors are limited: the earnings call showed improving operational results and lower leverage, but valuation support is constrained by ongoing losses and no provided dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Vertical integration and diversified cash engines

CSN's combination of mining, logistics and energy creates durable internal synergies: high-margin mining cashflows and captive transport lower delivered costs for steel and cement. Diversified earnings reduce dependence on cyclical steel demand and support cash generation through cycles.

Operational efficiency driving margin recovery

Sustained EBITDA improvement and margin expansion reflect structural cost reductions and higher product mix quality. Lower steel production costs and multi-segment efficiency improvements indicate enduring competitiveness potential if maintained across cycles and support rebuild of profitability over the medium term.

Formal deleveraging plan to materially cut indebtedness

A board-approved R$15–18B asset-sale program is a structural remedy to elevated leverage. Executing targeted divestments and re-focusing on higher-return mining and infrastructure can materially improve balance-sheet flexibility, lower interest burden, and enable reinvestment in core high-margin businesses.

Negative Factors

Very high leverage and weakened equity base

A very large debt stock relative to equity leaves CSN exposed to refinancing and interest-rate risk and constrains strategic optionality. High leverage reduces resilience to commodity cycles and requires continued asset sales or sustained earnings improvement to restore a healthy capital structure.

Negative operating and free cash flow in 2025

A swing to negative OCF and deeply negative FCF is structurally significant: it limits internal funding for capex, deleveraging and dividends, forcing reliance on asset sales or external financing. Persistent weak cash conversion undermines long-term balance-sheet repair and investment plans.

Structural steel-market headwinds and rising finance costs

Ongoing import competition, plant idling and inventory losses indicate lasting margin pressure in steel. Coupled with higher financial expenses from elevated rates and FX effects, this compresses net profitability and raises the hurdle for returning to sustained net income even if operating EBITDA recovers.

Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional operates as an integrated steel producer in Brazil and Latin America. It operates in five segments: Steel, Mining, Logistics, Energy, and Cement. The company offers flat steel products, such as high, medium, low carbon, micro-alloyed, ultra-low-carbon, and interstitial free slabs; hot-rolled products, including heavy and light-gauge hot-rolled coils and sheets; cold-rolled products comprising cold-rolled coils and sheets; galvanized products; tin mill products that consist of flat-rolled low-carbon steel coils or sheets; and profiles, channels, UPE sections, and steel sleepers for the distribution, packaging, automotive, home appliance, and construction industries. It primarily explores for iron ore reserves at Casa de Pedra and Engenho mines located in the city of Congonhas; and limestone and dolomite at the Bocaina mine located in the city of Arcos in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil, as well as produces tin. In addition, the company operates railway and port facilities; produces and sells cement to construction material stores, home centers, concrete producers, construction companies, mortar industries, and cement artifact producers; and generates electric power from its thermoelectric co-generation and hydroelectric power plants. It also exports its products. The company was incorporated in 1941 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil. Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional operates as a subsidiary of Vicunha Aços S.A.

How the Company Makes Money

CSN generates revenue primarily by selling (1) steel products, (2) iron ore, and (3) cement, supported by (4) logistics and other ancillary activities. 1) Steel (manufacturing and sales): A core source of revenue comes from producing steel and selling it to end markets such as automotive, appliances, construction, and general industry. Revenue is generally recognized from sales of finished steel products, with pricing influenced by domestic and international steel benchmarks, product mix (e.g., flat steel vs. other categories), customer contracts (spot and/or term), and volumes shipped. 2) Mining (iron ore sales): CSN earns revenue from extracting and selling iron ore (and related mining products, where applicable). Iron ore sales may be to external customers and/or used internally as an input to CSN’s steel operations; only external sales are recognized as revenue. Mining profitability and revenue are heavily driven by global iron ore prices, realized quality premiums/discounts, and export volumes. 3) Cement: CSN also makes money by producing and selling cement and related products to construction markets, largely tied to domestic demand cycles, regional pricing, and distribution reach. 4) Logistics and other: CSN owns/operates logistics assets that can generate revenue through services such as transportation/handling and port or terminal-related activities, and also support the company’s own supply chain (internal use reduces cost rather than generating external revenue). Depending on the structure of these operations, earnings can come from third-party service fees, take-or-pay style contracts, and/or throughput-linked tariffs. Key factors that contribute to earnings across the portfolio include: (a) commodity price cycles (steel spreads and iron ore prices), (b) foreign exchange movements (given export exposure and USD-linked benchmarks), (c) input costs (energy, coal/coke, freight, and other consumables), (d) production efficiency and utilization rates, and (e) the degree of vertical integration (mining and logistics) that can reduce delivered input costs and improve margins in the steel business.

Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Weak fundamentals dominate: revenue has been flat-to-down and net income has been negative for three straight years (2023–2025). Leverage remains high versus equity and cash flow deteriorated sharply, with 2025 operating cash flow turning negative and free cash flow deeply negative, despite still-positive EBITDA.

Income Statement

Revenue has been essentially flat to down recently (annual revenue growth of -3.9% in 2024 and -3.3% in 2025). Profitability has weakened meaningfully versus the strong 2020–2021 period: net income turned negative in 2023–2025 (losses in 2024 and 2025), indicating margin compression and/or higher costs below the operating line. Offsetting this, the company still shows solid operating earnings capacity in the latest year (2025 EBIT of ~4.7B and EBITDA of ~8.7B), but the inability to convert this into bottom-line profits keeps the income statement score below average.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is high and has become more pressured over time. Total debt remains very large (about 54.0B in 2025) versus equity (about 12.9B), and the debt-to-equity level was elevated in 2024 (about 4.7x) compared with 2022–2023 (about 2.1–2.6x). Equity also declined from 2021–2023 levels, and returns on equity were negative in 2023–2024, reflecting losses and reduced balance-sheet flexibility. While the asset base is sizable, the combination of high leverage and weaker profitability increases financial risk.

Cash Flow

Cash generation has become volatile and deteriorated recently. Operating cash flow was strong in 2023–2024 (about 7.3B and 8.7B), but flipped negative in 2025 (about -1.0B). Free cash flow also swung from positive in 2023–2024 (about 2.9B–3.2B) to deeply negative in 2025 (about -6.8B), indicating a material cash drain (from weaker operations and/or higher investment needs). Despite a reported rebound in free-cash-flow growth in 2025 (off a tougher prior base), the current-year negative operating and free cash flow drives a low score.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	45.42B	43.92B	43.69B	45.44B	44.36B	47.91B
Gross Profit	12.45B	11.87B	11.70B	11.30B	13.31B	22.07B
EBITDA	6.76B	8.73B	6.85B	8.58B	10.07B	23.08B
Net Income	-1.56B	-1.96B	-2.59B	-318.21M	1.55B	12.26B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	18.93B	100.52B	103.91B	91.53B	85.35B	79.38B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	3.28B	15.06B	24.22B	17.59B	13.46B	19.30B
Total Debt	10.00B	53.99B	57.10B	45.26B	41.55B	32.57B
Total Liabilities	15.67B	84.80B	88.45B	71.84B	63.54B	56.00B
Stockholders Equity	2.66B	12.87B	12.27B	17.50B	19.49B	20.31B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-3.41B	-6.77B	3.16B	2.88B	-3.33B	11.93B
Operating Cash Flow	2.54B	-954.06M	8.65B	7.29B	2.04B	14.79B
Investing Cash Flow	-2.30B	-6.00B	-1.12B	-4.59B	-11.45B	447.93M
Financing Cash Flow	-2.13B	-1.74B	-103.83M	1.32B	4.75B	-8.53B

Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 1.87
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SID, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.87 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.52, above the 50-day MA of 1.73, and above the 200-day MA of 1.57, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.15 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 26.64 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 5.03 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SID.

Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SIM	69 Neutral	$4.90B	61.64	6.07%	―	-16.81%	-67.68%
CMC	67 Neutral	$6.84B	10.04	10.54%	1.02%	-1.61%	-81.36%
TX	65 Neutral	$7.49B	17.63	3.53%	7.02%	-16.69%	585.38%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
GGB	61 Neutral	$6.43B	29.29	2.53%	2.92%	-2.53%	-36.08%
SID	45 Neutral	$1.52B	-19.29	-13.62%	―	-5.79%	-5.30%
CLF	45 Neutral	$4.91B	-4.42	-24.89%	―	-6.76%	-255.94%

Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional Corporate Events

CSN Posts 2025 Revenue Growth on Mining and Logistics Despite Steel-Segment Headwinds

On March 11, 2026, CSN reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, showing net revenue of R$ 11.4 billion in 4Q25, down 3.3% from the prior quarter and 5.2% year on year amid typical year-end seasonality and softer activity in steel and cement. Full-year 2025 net revenue rose 2.5% to R$ 44.8 billion, driven by record operating performance in Mining, stronger results in Logistics and Energy, and higher cargo volumes boosted by the incorporation of the Tora Group.

Cost of goods sold fell 7.1% in 4Q25 versus 3Q25, helping lift quarterly gross margin to 32.2%, while 2025 gross margin improved to 27.7% as operational efficiencies offset competitive pressure in some markets. SG&A rose 7.6% in 4Q25 on year-end costs but declined 4.7% for 2025, largely reflecting weaker commercial activity in steel.

Other operating income and expenses swung to a sharply higher negative balance of R$ 1.54 billion in 4Q25 and R$ 2.08 billion for 2025, mainly due to operational idleness and inventory losses tied to the shutdown of Blast Furnace No. 2 and higher impacts from FX and iron ore hedges. Financial results were also negative, though 4Q25 losses narrowed sequentially on FX gains from overseas investments, while full-year 2025 financial expenses worsened 11.7% amid higher interest rates and currency effects on foreign debt.

Equity income from investees fell 25.4% in 4Q25 on seasonal weakness at rail operator MRS, but rose 15.9% for 2025 as MRS delivered record cargo handling and strong efficiency gains. CSN posted a net loss of R$ 721.2 million in 4Q25, reversing a prior-quarter profit, and full-year losses remained broadly stable versus 2024 as mining and logistics improvements were offset by non-recurring steel segment impacts, underscoring both the strength of its resource and transport businesses and ongoing operational challenges in steel.

The most recent analyst rating on (SID) stock is a Hold with a $2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional stock, see the SID Stock Forecast page.

CSN Narrows 2026 Iron Ore Volume Outlook and Sets New Cash Cost Guidance

On March 11, 2026, CSN disclosed a material fact updating its operational projections for the 2026 mining business. The company adjusted its expected combined volume of iron ore production and third‑party purchases to a narrower range of 45.0–47.0 million tons, slightly tightening the lower and upper bounds of its previous outlook.

CSN also set a new projection for its 2026 mining C1 cash cost, guiding to a range between US$22.0 and US$23.5 per ton. The revisions signal management’s current view on operational efficiency and cost discipline for the mining segment, while explicitly acknowledging that these estimates are subject to market conditions and may change over time.

The most recent analyst rating on (SID) stock is a Hold with a $2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional stock, see the SID Stock Forecast page.

CSN Launches Major Asset Divestment Plan to Cut Debt and Reshape Capital Structure

On January 15, 2026, CSN announced that its board of directors has authorized management to launch a structured divestment program of significant assets as part of a broad plan to address the group’s capital structure. Starting in 2026, the company plans to execute strategic initiatives to reduce indebtedness by approximately R$15 billion to R$18 billion through asset sales, enabling it to refocus on its most profitable and synergistic segments while targeting, over the next eight years, a doubling of EBITDA and a sustainable leverage level of about 1.0x net debt to EBITDA, with all potential transactions subject to customary legal, antitrust and regulatory approvals.

The most recent analyst rating on (SID) stock is a Hold with a $2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional stock, see the SID Stock Forecast page.

CSN Launches 2026 Deleveraging Plan to Fund Mining and Infrastructure-Led Growth

In January 2026, CSN announced a strategic plan approved by its board to begin, in 2026, a series of moves aimed at deleveraging the group and rebalancing its capital structure to support a new growth cycle focused on mining and infrastructure projects under its control. The company plans to divest selected assets in 2026 to reduce leverage by approximately R$16–18 billion, building on the 2025 sale of an 11% stake in logistics operator MRS to CSN Mineração for R$3.35 billion, and intends to sell a significant equity stake in its CSN Infra platform and the controlling stake in its cement operations in 2026, while evaluating strategic alternatives and partnerships in steel to maximize short-term cash generation. Management projects that, with a renewed asset portfolio centered on high-return mining, logistics and energy assets, CSN has the potential to double EBITDA and profitability over roughly eight years while maintaining leverage around 1x, as expansion projects in iron ore (such as the P15 ramp-up), infrastructure, and cement, combined with its renewable energy platform, are expected to enhance margins, operational scale and long-term value creation for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (SID) stock is a Hold with a $2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional stock, see the SID Stock Forecast page.

CSN Transfers Majority of MRS Logística Stake to Mining Subsidiary for R$3.35 Billion

On December 18, 2025, CSN’s board approved and executed a reorganization of its stake in rail operator MRS Logística S.A. by selling up to 11.17% of MRS’s capital to its mining subsidiary CSN Mineração (CMIN) for a total of up to R$3.35 billion, a move that shifts the rail asset from the parent to the mining arm while keeping the investment within the group. The first transaction, completed on December 18, 2025, transferred a 9.17% interest in MRS to CMIN for R$2.75 billion, and a second, already approved transaction for an additional 2% stake for R$600 million remains subject to customary regulatory and legal approvals; after these steps, CSN will retain only common shares equivalent to 13.69% of MRS’s voting capital, still bound by the existing shareholders’ agreement, signaling an internal capital reallocation and potential operational alignment between its mining and logistics businesses without fully exiting the rail concession.

The most recent analyst rating on (SID) stock is a Sell with a $1.40 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional stock, see the SID Stock Forecast page.

CSN Announces Executive Leadership Restructure to Bolster Operations

On December 9, 2025, Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional approved the election of two new executive directors, Tufi Daher Filho for Infrastructure and Logistics and Augusto César Ferreira Lara for Steel Production, as part of a restructured Executive Board with unified terms of office lasting two years. This decision reflects strategic leadership adjustments aimed at strengthening operational oversight and efficiency in the company’s core sectors, potentially enhancing its competitive positioning in the steel and logistics industries.

The most recent analyst rating on (SID) stock is a Sell with a $1.40 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional stock, see the SID Stock Forecast page.