Gerdau SA (GGB)
NYSE:GGB
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Gerdau SA
(NYSE:GGB)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$3.50
▼(-18.03% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/25/26
The score is driven primarily by mixed financial performance: improved top-line and a solid balance sheet are outweighed by sharply weaker margins and weaker cash conversion. The latest earnings call adds modest support via lower 2026 CapEx, conservative leverage and buybacks, while technical indicators and valuation are broadly neutral rather than strong positives.
Positive Factors
North America operating strength
Durable regional diversification: North America's record shipments, above‑average order backlog and growth in downstream/high‑value lines underpin steadier, higher‑margin earnings. This reduces reliance on Brazil cycles and import‑exposed markets, supporting more resilient consolidated EBITDA contribution over months.
Negative Factors
Compressed profitability
Margins have materially deteriorated even as revenue recovered, indicating weaker pricing power or rising input costs. Such sustained margin compression undermines return on capital and makes earnings more sensitive to cyclical downturns, limiting durable improvement unless structural cost or market mix changes occur.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
North America operating strength
Durable regional diversification: North America's record shipments, above‑average order backlog and growth in downstream/high‑value lines underpin steadier, higher‑margin earnings. This reduces reliance on Brazil cycles and import‑exposed markets, supporting more resilient consolidated EBITDA contribution over months.
Read all positive factors
Gerdau SA (GGB) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$7.88B
Dividend Yield2.92%
Average Volume (3M)19.48M
Price to Earnings (P/E)29.3
Beta (1Y)1.09
Revenue Growth-2.53%
EPS Growth-36.08%
CountryUS
Employees30,000
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustrySteel
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.13
Shares Outstanding1,275,397,300
10 Day Avg. Volume21,987,859
30 Day Avg. Volume19,483,494
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.43
Price to Book (P/B)0.76
Price to Sales (P/S)0.58
P/FCF Ratio31.11
Enterprise Value/Market Cap6.81
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.77
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.74
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.13
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$4.90Price Target Upside14.75% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)0.46
Revenue Forecast (FY)$13.80B
Gerdau SA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Gerdau S.A. provides steel products and services. The company operates through Brazil Business, North America Business, South America Business, and Special Steel Business segments. It offers semi-finished products, including billets, blooms, and s...
How the Company Makes Money
Gerdau makes money primarily by producing and selling steel products, with revenue largely driven by shipment volumes and realized selling prices across its product mix. Its core revenue stream is long steel (e.g., rebar, wire rod, merchant and st...
Gerdau SA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 23, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call conveyed a balanced message: strong operational and financial resilience in North America (record shipments, healthy order backlog, downstream growth), improved cash generation and a disciplined capital plan (CapEx reduction, buybacks, leverage ~0.76x). However, material challenges remain in Brazil—higher imports (+7.5% YoY), significant coal cost inflation (~>20%), low asset utilization and BRL 2 billion of noncash impairments—which drove year-on-year EBITDA and adjusted net income declines. Management expects gradual improvement tied to Miguel Burnier ramp-up and trade-defense measures but short-term margin pressure in Brazil is likely.Positive Updates
Strong North America Operating Performance and Demand
North America reported resilient demand, robust operating performance and order backlogs above historical averages (around ~90 days). The region delivered record shipments in December 2025 and materially contributed to consolidated results.
Negative Updates
EBITDA and Adjusted Net Income Contraction
Full-year 2025 EBITDA was BRL 10.1 billion, down 7% versus 2024. Adjusted net income (excluding BRL 2 billion of noncash impairments) was BRL 3.4 billion, down 21% year-on-year, reflecting weaker operating profitability in some regions.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong North America Operating Performance and Demand
North America reported resilient demand, robust operating performance and order backlogs above historical averages (around ~90 days). The region delivered record shipments in December 2025 and materially contributed to consolidated results.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Gerdau’s guidance and forward view: management set 2026 CapEx at BRL 4.7 billion (vs BRL 6.1 billion in 2025, a BRL 1.4 billion reduction) to boost free‑cash‑flow flexibility; 2025 reported EBITDA was BRL 10.1 billion (‑7% y/y) and adjusted net income was BRL 3.4 billion (‑21% y/y) after BRL 2.0 billion of non‑cash impairments; Q4 free cash flow was BRL 1.4 billion and 12‑month cash generation turned positive at BRL 394 million, enabling a year‑end leverage of 0.76x net debt/EBITDA; shareholder returns in 2025 totaled BRL 2.4 billion (dividends + buybacks) and a new buyback for ~2.9% of shares (~BRL 1.2 billion at recent prices) was launched; operationally North America delivered record shipments in Dec‑2025 with order backlog near 90 days and continued resilient demand, while Brazil saw steel imports +7.5% y/y in 2025, melt‑shop utilization under ~60% (mills operating <75%), and short‑term cost pressure from coal (up >20% Q4→Q1); management expects moderate Brazil demand in 2026, margin stability early in the year and a possible move to double‑digit Brazil EBITDA margin in H2‑2026 if Miguel Burnier ramps as planned and trade‑defense measures (HRC antidumping/tariff) hold.Gerdau SA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 69.86B | 67.03B | 68.92B | 82.41B | 78.35B |
| Gross Profit | 7.97B | 9.20B | 11.33B | 18.75B | 20.82B |
| EBITDA | 9.29B | 9.39B | 13.23B | 19.69B | 23.99B |
| Net Income | 1.39B | 4.57B | 7.50B | 11.43B | 15.49B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 81.69B | 86.81B | 74.89B | 73.80B | 73.81B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 6.37B | 8.28B | 5.34B | 5.43B | 6.79B |
| Total Debt | 15.57B | 14.92B | 12.17B | 13.66B | 14.98B |
| Total Liabilities | 27.89B | 28.64B | 25.65B | 27.50B | 31.00B |
| Stockholders Equity | 53.59B | 57.95B | 49.06B | 46.12B | 42.60B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.31B | 5.43B | 5.80B | 6.67B | 9.32B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 7.99B | 11.38B | 11.14B | 11.15B | 12.52B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -7.57B | -5.03B | -5.77B | -4.46B | -3.00B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.72B | -2.69B | -4.13B | -8.26B | -9.98B |
Gerdau SA Technical Analysis
Positive
4.27
Price Trends
3.84
Positive
3.83
Positive
3.46
Positive
Market Momentum
0.14
Negative
73.41
Negative
94.08
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GGB, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4.27 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.67, above the 50-day MA of 3.84, and above the 200-day MA of 3.46, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.14 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 73.41 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 94.08 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GGB.
Gerdau SA Risk Analysis
Gerdau SA disclosed 40 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Gerdau SA reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Gerdau SA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $5.15B | 61.64 | 6.07% | ― | -16.81% | -67.68% | |
65 Neutral | $8.45B | 17.63 | 3.53% | 7.02% | -16.69% | 585.38% | |
64 Neutral | $7.35B | 21.86 | 11.88% | 1.02% | -1.61% | -81.36% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
61 Neutral | $7.88B | 29.29 | 2.53% | 2.92% | -2.53% | -36.08% | |
45 Neutral | $5.33B | -4.42 | -24.89% | ― | -6.76% | -255.94% | |
42 Neutral | $1.72B | -5.92 | -13.62% | ― | -5.79% | -5.30% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
GGB
Gerdau SA
4.27
1.83
74.86%
CLF
Cleveland-Cliffs
9.45
2.27
31.62%
CMC
Commercial Metals Company
65.94
24.74
60.07%
SIM
Grupo Simec SA De CV
30.50
4.04
15.27%
SID
Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional
1.35
-0.12
-8.16%
TX
Ternium SA
43.21
18.33
73.66%
Gerdau SA Corporate Events
Gerdau Posts Strong 2025 North American Results as Brazilian Imports Squeeze Margins
Feb 24, 2026
On February 24, 2026, Gerdau S.A. reported its 2025 results, highlighting 11.6 million tonnes of steel shipments, up 5.9% year on year, and adjusted EBITDA of R$10.1 billion driven by strong North American performance despite weaker conditions in ...
Gerdau Posts Resilient 4Q25 Results and Launches New Share Buyback Program
Feb 23, 2026
Gerdau S.A. reported its fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 23, 2026, highlighting resilient performance in North America that offset seasonal weakness, maintenance shutdowns, and intense import competition in Brazil, and a more challenging e...
Gerdau Announces Interim 2025 Dividend Payout Schedule for Local Shares and ADRs
Feb 23, 2026
On February 23, 2026, the boards of Gerdau S.A. and Metalúrgica Gerdau S.A. approved interim dividend payments as an advance on the minimum dividend for the 2025 fiscal year, signaling continued cash returns to shareholders. The companies set...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.