Gerdau SA (GGB) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $7.94B
• Dividend Yield: 2.92%
• Average Volume (3M): 12.41M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 16.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.93
• Revenue Growth: -2.53%
• EPS Growth: -36.08%
• Country: US
• Employees: 30,000
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Steel
• EPS (TTM): 0.10
• Shares Outstanding: 1,283,097,300
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 17,468,855
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 12,406,999
• PEG Ratio: -0.21
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.64
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.56
• P/FCF Ratio: 6.87
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 6.94
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.79
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.77
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 6.29
• 1Y Price Target: $4.60
• Price Target Upside: 36.50% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 63 Neutral
• Price Target: $5.00 ▲(48.37% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by mixed financial performance—solid balance sheet offset by weakening profitability/revenue and challenged cash generation. Technicals are supportive but overbought conditions temper the outlook, while valuation and dividend provide only moderate support.

Positive Factors

Market Position and Scale

Gerdau's scale and geographic footprint across Brazil and the Americas provide durable advantages: diversified end-markets, purchasing power for raw materials, and ability to serve large construction and industrial customers. Scale supports long-term contract wins and resilience through cycles.

Operational Efficiency / Margins

Sustained positive operating margins indicate effective cost control and production efficiency within steel operations. Durable margin ability supports cash generation for capex and deleveraging, and gives pricing flexibility versus smaller peers during industry slowdowns.

Active Debt Management

Prepaying $500M of bonds reduces future interest obligations and maturity risk, improving liquidity and financial flexibility. This structural deleveraging enhances the balance sheet and lowers refinancing exposure over the medium term, supporting strategic investments.

Negative Factors

Weak Cash Generation

Negative free cash flow growth and operating cash flow trailing net income indicate cash conversion weakness. Over several quarters this constrains capacity to fund capex, dividends, or debt reduction internally and increases reliance on external financing.

Declining Profitability and Revenue Volatility

Eroding gross and net margins alongside volatile revenues reduce earnings predictability and weaken return on capital. Persisting margin pressure hampers reinvestment and shareholder returns, forcing management to defend margins via cost cuts or price strategies with limited visibility.

Weak Top- and Bottom-line Trends & Cyclicality

Negative revenue and steep EPS declines signal weakening demand and profitability. Given steel's sensitivity to economic cycles and infrastructure activity, these trends can persist across 2–6 months, pressuring cash flows and capital allocation until end-market demand stabilizes.

Gerdau SA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Gerdau S.A. provides steel products and services. The company operates through Brazil Business, North America Business, South America Business, and Special Steel Business segments. It offers semi-finished products, including billets, blooms, and slabs; common long rolled products, such as rebars, wire rods, merchant bars, light shapes, and profiles to the construction and manufacturing industries; finished industrial products, including commercial rolled-steel bars, and light profiles and wires; agricultural products that include stakes and smooth wire products; and drawn products comprises barbed and barbless fence wires, galvanized wires, fences, concrete reinforcing wire meshes, nails, and clamps. The company also produces special steel products used in auto parts, light and heavy vehicles, and agricultural machinery, as well as the oil and gas, wind energy, machinery and equipment, mining and rail, and other markets. In addition, it offers flat products, including hot rolled coils and heavy plates; and resells flat steel products, as well as mines and produces iron ore. It sells its products through independent distributors, direct sales from the mills, and through its retail network. The company was founded in 1901 and is based in Sao Paulo, Brazil.

How the Company Makes Money

Gerdau generates revenue primarily through the sale of steel products, including reinforcing bars, wire rods, and flat steel. The company benefits from a diverse portfolio that addresses various market segments, such as construction, automotive, and manufacturing. Key revenue streams include domestic sales in Brazil as well as exports to international markets. Additionally, Gerdau has established strategic partnerships with construction firms and automotive manufacturers to secure long-term contracts, which provide stable income. The company also invests in recycling operations, which not only bolster its sustainability initiatives but also lower production costs, thereby enhancing profit margins. Economic cycles, infrastructure projects, and demand for steel in various industries significantly influence Gerdau's earnings.

Gerdau SA Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mixed fundamentals: balance sheet strength and manageable leverage support stability, but profitability and revenue trends have weakened, and cash flow quality is a key concern (negative free cash flow growth and operating cash flow below net income in TTM).

Income Statement

Gerdau SA's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) data indicates a decline in gross profit margin and net profit margin compared to previous years, reflecting pressure on profitability. Revenue growth has been volatile, with a significant drop in the most recent period. However, the company maintains a positive EBIT and EBITDA margin, suggesting operational efficiency. Overall, while there are strengths in operational margins, declining profitability and revenue growth pose concerns.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Gerdau SA is relatively strong, with a moderate debt-to-equity ratio indicating manageable leverage. The equity ratio is healthy, and the company has maintained a positive return on equity, although it has decreased over the years. The company's financial stability is supported by a solid equity base, but the declining ROE suggests challenges in generating returns on equity.

Cash Flow

Gerdau SA's cash flow statement reveals some challenges. The free cash flow growth rate has been negative, indicating potential issues in generating cash. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is below 1 in the TTM, suggesting that cash generation from operations is not fully covering net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio has also declined, pointing to reduced cash efficiency. These factors highlight potential liquidity concerns.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	69.71B	67.03B	68.92B	82.41B	78.35B	43.81B
Gross Profit	8.14B	9.20B	11.33B	18.75B	20.82B	5.93B
EBITDA	8.76B	9.39B	13.23B	19.69B	23.99B	8.36B
Net Income	3.00B	4.57B	7.50B	11.43B	15.49B	2.37B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	87.26B	86.81B	74.89B	73.80B	73.81B	63.12B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	9.87B	8.28B	5.34B	5.43B	6.79B	7.66B
Total Debt	19.99B	14.92B	12.17B	13.66B	14.98B	18.39B
Total Liabilities	32.52B	28.64B	25.65B	27.50B	31.00B	32.04B
Stockholders Equity	54.54B	57.95B	49.06B	46.12B	42.60B	30.86B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	379.92M	5.43B	5.80B	6.67B	9.32B	4.60B
Operating Cash Flow	7.63B	11.38B	11.14B	11.15B	12.52B	6.41B
Investing Cash Flow	-8.46B	-5.03B	-5.77B	-4.46B	-3.00B	-2.23B
Financing Cash Flow	2.24B	-2.69B	-4.13B	-8.26B	-9.98B	-2.49B

Gerdau SA Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 3.37
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GGB, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3.37 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.17, below the 50-day MA of 3.83, and above the 200-day MA of 3.18, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.18 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.18 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 58.19 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GGB.

Gerdau SA Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SIM	73 Outperform	$5.19B	27.68	5.84%	―	-16.81%	-67.68%
TX	68 Neutral	$8.21B	14.31	4.80%	7.02%	-16.69%	585.38%
CMC	67 Neutral	$8.53B	19.81	10.51%	1.02%	-1.61%	-81.36%
GGB	63 Neutral	$7.94B	16.16	5.21%	2.92%	-2.53%	-36.08%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
CLF	54 Neutral	$7.84B	-4.04	-27.16%	―	-6.76%	-255.94%
SID	53 Neutral	$2.53B	-9.42	-10.50%	―	-5.79%	-5.30%

Gerdau SA Corporate Events

Gerdau Completes 2025 Share Buyback Program at Full Authorized Volume

On December 19, 2025, Gerdau S.A. announced it had completed its 2025 share buyback program, which had been launched on January 20, 2025. Over the course of the program, the company repurchased 1,500,000 common shares (GGBR3) at an average price of R$15.65 and 63,000,000 preferred shares (GGBR4 and ADRs backed by preferred shares) at an average price of R$16.27, reaching 100% of the authorized buyback volume. The conclusion of the program signals a significant capital allocation move by Gerdau, potentially enhancing shareholder value through reduced free float and reflecting management’s confidence in the company’s valuation and long-term prospects.

The most recent analyst rating on (GGB) stock is a Buy with a $4.60 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Gerdau SA stock, see the GGB Stock Forecast page.

Gerdau S.A. Completes $500M Bond Prepayment

On December 2, 2025, Gerdau S.A. announced that its subsidiary, GUSAP III LP, completed the financial settlement for the prepayment of bonds worth $500 million, originally set to mature in 2030. This move, which involved a total redemption amount of over $509 million, reflects Gerdau’s strategic financial management and may impact its financial operations and investor relations positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (GGB) stock is a Buy with a $3.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Gerdau SA stock, see the GGB Stock Forecast page.

Gerdau S.A. Cancels Shares to Optimize Capital Structure

On October 30, 2025, Gerdau S.A. announced the cancellation of 283,900 common shares and 12,650,000 preferred shares, which will not affect the capital stock value. This adjustment aims to streamline the company’s share structure, with the updated share count to be formalized in a future Shareholders’ Meeting. This move could potentially enhance shareholder value and optimize the company’s capital management strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (GGB) stock is a Buy with a $3.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Gerdau SA stock, see the GGB Stock Forecast page.