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Gerdau SA
(NYSE:GGB)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$5.50
▲(14.35% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/06/26
The score is driven primarily by stable-but-subdued fundamentals: strong revenue growth and manageable leverage are offset by materially weaker margins and low returns versus prior-cycle peaks. Technicals add support due to a clear uptrend, but overbought signals temper the outlook. Valuation is the key drag, with a high P/E and only a moderate dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Sustained TTM revenue growth of ~49.8% indicates expanding end-market demand and stronger volume/realized price dynamics. This scale improvement supports capacity utilization, underpins operating leverage and provides a base for continued investment in plants and regional expansion over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Profitability Compression
Margins and returns have materially downshifted versus prior cycles, with net margin around 2.0% and ROE ~2.5% TTM. Persistently compressed profitability limits internal capital generation, reduces cushion against raw material and energy cost swings, and constrains long‑term return on invested capital.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue Growth
Sustained TTM revenue growth of ~49.8% indicates expanding end-market demand and stronger volume/realized price dynamics. This scale improvement supports capacity utilization, underpins operating leverage and provides a base for continued investment in plants and regional expansion over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Gerdau SA (GGB) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$9.04B
Dividend Yield2.57%
Average Volume (3M)16.43M
Price to Earnings (P/E)30.9
Beta (1Y)1.04
Revenue Growth8.98%
EPS Growth-21.39%
CountryUS
Employees30,000
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustrySteel
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.12
Shares Outstanding1,268,017,300
10 Day Avg. Volume16,510,801
30 Day Avg. Volume16,428,560
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.43
Price to Book (P/B)0.76
Price to Sales (P/S)0.58
P/FCF Ratio35.70
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$5.85Price Target Upside21.62% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)0.53
Revenue Forecast (FY)$13.81B
Gerdau SA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Gerdau S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a steel producer company. It operates through Brazil Business, North America Business, and South America Business segments. The company offers rebars, bars, wires, thick plates, hot rolled c...
How the Company Makes Money
Gerdau makes money primarily by producing steel and selling steel products to customers across its operating regions. Its core revenue model is volume multiplied by realized selling prices for its steel products, with revenue driven by (1) shipmen...
Gerdau SA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 23, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 26, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call conveyed a balanced message: strong operational and financial resilience in North America (record shipments, healthy order backlog, downstream growth), improved cash generation and a disciplined capital plan (CapEx reduction, buybacks, leverage ~0.76x). However, material challenges remain in Brazil—higher imports (+7.5% YoY), significant coal cost inflation (~>20%), low asset utilization and BRL 2 billion of noncash impairments—which drove year-on-year EBITDA and adjusted net income declines. Management expects gradual improvement tied to Miguel Burnier ramp-up and trade-defense measures but short-term margin pressure in Brazil is likely.Positive Updates
Strong North America Operating Performance and Demand
North America reported resilient demand, robust operating performance and order backlogs above historical averages (around ~90 days). The region delivered record shipments in December 2025 and materially contributed to consolidated results.
Negative Updates
EBITDA and Adjusted Net Income Contraction
Full-year 2025 EBITDA was BRL 10.1 billion, down 7% versus 2024. Adjusted net income (excluding BRL 2 billion of noncash impairments) was BRL 3.4 billion, down 21% year-on-year, reflecting weaker operating profitability in some regions.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong North America Operating Performance and Demand
North America reported resilient demand, robust operating performance and order backlogs above historical averages (around ~90 days). The region delivered record shipments in December 2025 and materially contributed to consolidated results.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Gerdau’s guidance and forward view: management set 2026 CapEx at BRL 4.7 billion (vs BRL 6.1 billion in 2025, a BRL 1.4 billion reduction) to boost free‑cash‑flow flexibility; 2025 reported EBITDA was BRL 10.1 billion (‑7% y/y) and adjusted net income was BRL 3.4 billion (‑21% y/y) after BRL 2.0 billion of non‑cash impairments; Q4 free cash flow was BRL 1.4 billion and 12‑month cash generation turned positive at BRL 394 million, enabling a year‑end leverage of 0.76x net debt/EBITDA; shareholder returns in 2025 totaled BRL 2.4 billion (dividends + buybacks) and a new buyback for ~2.9% of shares (~BRL 1.2 billion at recent prices) was launched; operationally North America delivered record shipments in Dec‑2025 with order backlog near 90 days and continued resilient demand, while Brazil saw steel imports +7.5% y/y in 2025, melt‑shop utilization under ~60% (mills operating <75%), and short‑term cost pressure from coal (up >20% Q4→Q1); management expects moderate Brazil demand in 2026, margin stability early in the year and a possible move to double‑digit Brazil EBITDA margin in H2‑2026 if Miguel Burnier ramps as planned and trade‑defense measures (HRC antidumping/tariff) hold.Gerdau SA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 69.54B | 69.86B | 67.03B | 68.92B | 82.41B | 78.35B |
| Gross Profit | 9.11B | 7.97B | 9.20B | 11.33B | 18.75B | 20.82B |
| EBITDA | 8.87B | 7.57B | 9.39B | 13.23B | 19.69B | 23.99B |
| Net Income | 2.24B | 1.39B | 4.57B | 7.50B | 11.43B | 15.49B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 81.97B | 81.69B | 86.81B | 74.89B | 73.80B | 73.81B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 5.44B | 6.37B | 8.28B | 5.34B | 5.43B | 6.79B |
| Total Debt | 15.17B | 15.57B | 14.92B | 12.20B | 13.66B | 14.98B |
| Total Liabilities | 28.24B | 27.89B | 28.64B | 25.65B | 27.50B | 31.00B |
| Stockholders Equity | 53.54B | 53.59B | 57.95B | 49.06B | 46.12B | 42.60B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 3.53B | 1.13B | 5.43B | 5.80B | 6.67B | 9.32B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 9.12B | 7.99B | 11.38B | 11.14B | 11.15B | 12.52B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -5.57B | -7.57B | -5.03B | -5.77B | -4.46B | -3.00B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -6.74B | -1.72B | -2.69B | -4.13B | -8.26B | -9.98B |
Gerdau SA Technical Analysis
Positive
4.81
Price Trends
4.59
Positive
4.40
Positive
4.08
Positive
Market Momentum
0.14
Negative
59.63
Neutral
46.55
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GGB, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4.81 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.87, above the 50-day MA of 4.59, and above the 200-day MA of 4.08, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.14 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.63 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 46.55 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GGB.
Gerdau SA Risk Analysis
Gerdau SA disclosed 40 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Gerdau SA reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Gerdau SA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $8.31B | 13.68 | 13.65% | 1.10% | 15.23% | 1535.96% | |
66 Neutral | $10.58B | 15.14 | 4.74% | 4.65% | -0.65% | 18.90% | |
62 Neutral | $9.04B | 30.87 | 2.53% | 2.65% | 8.98% | -21.39% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
61 Neutral | $5.23B | 6.55 | 3.33% | ― | 7.95% | -38.27% | |
53 Neutral | $6.99B | -7.48 | -15.23% | ― | 4.03% | 52.63% | |
41 Neutral | $1.18B | -3.32 | -12.83% | ― | 2.16% | 20.46% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
GGB
Gerdau SA
4.96
2.09
72.76%
CLF
Cleveland-Cliffs
12.49
2.77
28.50%
CMC
Commercial Metals Company
73.21
20.81
39.72%
SIM
Grupo Simec SA De CV
30.79
3.00
10.80%
SID
Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional
0.90
-0.47
-34.31%
TX
Ternium SA
54.80
24.71
82.13%
Gerdau SA Corporate Events
Gerdau Delivers Strong 2Q26 Results and Boosts Energy Self-Generation
Aug 5, 2026
On August 5, 2026, Gerdau reported strong second‑quarter 2026 results, highlighted by shipment growth in Brazil and North America, a 16% quarter‑on‑quarter increase in adjusted EBITDA to R$3.4 billion, and a 45% rise in adjusted ...
Gerdau Posts Stronger 2Q26 Results, Boosts Payouts and Energy Self-Sufficiency
Aug 4, 2026
Brazilian steel producer Gerdau S.A. reported improved results for the second quarter of 2026, with steel shipments rising 3% quarter-on-quarter to 2.9 million tonnes and net sales up 7% to R$17.9 billion. Adjusted EBITDA climbed 16% versus the pr...
Gerdau Announces Interim 2026 Dividends for Local Shares and ADRs
Aug 4, 2026
On August 4, 2026, Gerdau S.A. and Metalúrgica Gerdau S.A. approved interim dividend payments as an advance on the minimum dividend for the 2026 fiscal year, covering common, preferred and ADR shares. Record dates fall on August 19 for local ...
Gerdau Files Mid‑Year 2026 Interim Financials with U.S. SEC
Aug 4, 2026
On August 4, 2026, Gerdau S.A. filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, presenting unaudited condensed consolidated interim financial statements as of June 30, 2026. The filing provides U.S. investors with updated visibil...
Gerdau Completes R$154 Million Acquisition to Expand Renewable Energy Self-Production
Jul 21, 2026
On July 20, 2026, Gerdau S.A. announced it had completed the acquisition of the entire 23.03% equity stake in renewable power producer Dona Francisca Energética S.A. from Centrais Elétricas de Santa Catarina S.A. The deal followed satisf...
Gerdau Moves to Full Control of Dona Francisca Hydroelectric Asset to Boost Renewable Self-Generation
Jun 15, 2026
On June 15, 2026, Gerdau announced it had signed a binding share purchase agreement with Companhia Paranaense de Energia (COPEL) to acquire COPEL’s entire 23.03% equity stake in Dona Francisca Energética S.A. (DFESA) for an enterprise v...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.