Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $4.91B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 19.25M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.89
• Revenue Growth: -6.76%
• EPS Growth: -255.94%
• Country: US
• Employees: 30,000
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Steel
• EPS (TTM): -0.43
• Shares Outstanding: 570,390,500
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 17,415,097
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 19,246,098
• PEG Ratio: -0.05
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.07
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.35
• P/FCF Ratio: -6.39
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.62
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.69
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -15.38
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -102.20
• 1Y Price Target: $13.18
• Price Target Upside: 57.84% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9
• EPS Forecast (FY): -0.32
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $20.19B

• Rating: 45 Neutral
• Price Target: $8.00 ▼(-4.19% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/15/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/15/26

The score is held down primarily by deteriorated financial performance (losses, negative 2025 operating/free cash flow, and higher leverage) and a bearish technical setup (price below key moving averages with weak momentum). These are partially offset by a more optimistic 2026 outlook from the earnings call (shipment, pricing and cost-improvement guidance plus the slab-contract EBITDA benefit), while valuation remains constrained by losses and the absence of a dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Secured OEM Contracts

Multi-year fixed contracts with major OEMs lock in higher-margin, predictable volumes that support long-term utilization and planning. This durable commercial win backs capacity absorption without new plants, stabilizing revenue mix and improving margin sustainability as automotive volumes recover.

Slab Contract Termination Benefit

Removing an unfavorable index-based slab contract creates a structural uplift to realized margins and EBITDA. The one-time plus ongoing conversion economics reduce price leakage versus market HRC spreads, improving long-term profitability potential and accelerating cash flow recovery if spreads persist.

Ample Liquidity and Extended Maturities

Having ~$3.3B liquidity and extended maturities materially increases financial runway to execute turnaround plans, fund capex (Burns Harbor reline) and pursue asset sales without near-term refinancing pressure. This durable buffer supports operational fixes and targeted deleveraging efforts.

Negative Factors

Prolonged Revenue Decline

Three consecutive years of revenue decline signal structural demand and mix issues that compress scale economics. Lower volumes reduce capacity absorption, weaken bargaining power on pricing, and make it harder to restore prior margins; recovery depends on sustained end‑market improvement.

Weak Cash Generation

Persistent negative operating and free cash flow erodes internal funding for capex, debt paydown and working capital. Even with current liquidity, ongoing cash burn forces reliance on asset sales or external financing, limiting strategic flexibility and increasing refinancing and execution risk.

Elevated Leverage

Higher leverage compared with prior years reduces resilience to cyclical downturns and raises interest and refinancing sensitivity. The company must generate sustained EBITDA and cash flow to de-risk the balance sheet; failure would constrain investment and heighten reliance on asset disposals.

Cleveland-Cliffs Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. operates as a flat-rolled steel producer in North America. The company offers carbon steel products, such as hot-rolled, cold-rolled, electrogalvanized, hot-dip galvanized, hot-dip galvannealed, aluminized, enameling, and advanced high-strength steel products; stainless steel products; plates; and grain oriented and non-oriented electrical steel products. It also provides tubular components, including carbon steel, stainless steel, and electric resistance welded tubing. In addition, the company offers tinplate products, such as electrolytic tin coated and chrome coated sheet, and tin mill products; tooling and sampling; raw materials; ingots, rolled blooms, and cast blooms; and hot-briquetted iron products. Further, it owns five iron ore mines in Minnesota and Michigan. The company serves automotive, infrastructure and manufacturing, distributors and converters, and steel producers. Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. was formerly known as Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. and changed its name to Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. in August 2017. The company was founded in 1847 and is headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio.

How the Company Makes Money

Cleveland-Cliffs makes money primarily by producing and selling steel and steel-related products to industrial customers, with revenue largely tied to shipment volumes and realized selling prices under customer contracts and market conditions. The core revenue stream is the sale of flat-rolled steel (including products tailored to automotive and other manufacturing applications) as well as other steel products and services where applicable; these sales are typically priced through a mix of contract arrangements (often linked to recognized steel price indices and/or negotiated terms) and spot/shorter-term pricing depending on product and customer. A secondary, supporting source of value is its production of iron ore and other upstream inputs used in its steelmaking operations; while some upstream output may be sold externally depending on circumstances, the primary economic benefit is supplying internal steel production, which can influence costs and margins versus buying inputs on the open market. Profitability is driven by the spread between steel selling prices and the company’s total cost to produce and deliver steel (raw materials, energy, labor, maintenance, logistics), as well as by product mix (higher-value grades and automotive-oriented products can command better margins), capacity utilization, and the broader steel demand cycle. Additional factors that can materially affect earnings include changes in steel and scrap prices, automotive production levels, infrastructure and construction demand, trade and tariff regimes, and the cost/availability of key inputs such as energy and iron units; if specific partnership details are required, null.

Cleveland-Cliffs Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are weak in the current down-cycle: revenue has declined for three straight years, profitability deteriorated into deeper losses in 2025 (including negative gross profit), leverage increased to a moderate-to-elevated level (debt-to-equity ~1.17–1.19), and cash generation turned unfavorable with negative operating cash flow and worsening negative free cash flow in 2025.

Income Statement

Profitability has deteriorated materially. Revenue has been shrinking for three straight years (2023: -4.3%, 2024: -12.8%, 2025: -6.4%), and the business moved from solid profitability in 2021–2022 (double-digit EBITDA and net margins) to losses in 2024 and deeper losses in 2025 (net margin about -7.9% in 2025). Gross profit also flipped negative in 2025, indicating significant cost/price pressure. Strength: the company has demonstrated it can earn strong margins in up-cycles (2021–2022), but the current down-cycle earnings profile is weak.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is moderate-to-elevated with debt-to-equity around ~1.17–1.19 in 2024–2025, which reduces flexibility during a downturn. The balance sheet was notably stronger in 2022–2023 (debt-to-equity ~0.46–0.60), but leverage has risen sharply since 2023 as debt increased while equity declined. Total assets have been relatively stable, and equity remains sizable, but ongoing losses (negative returns on equity in 2024) are a key risk if they persist.

Cash Flow

Cash generation has weakened significantly. Operating cash flow fell from strong positive levels in 2021–2023 to barely positive in 2024 and turned negative in 2025, while free cash flow was negative in both 2024 and 2025 (worsening in 2025). This combination suggests the company is currently burning cash, which can pressure liquidity and increase reliance on financing. Strength: the company has shown the ability to produce meaningful free cash flow in better markets (2021–2023), but the recent trend is unfavorable.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	18.61B	19.18B	22.00B	22.99B	20.44B
Gross Profit	-763.00M	70.00M	1.39B	2.52B	4.53B
EBITDA	-45.00M	378.00M	1.86B	3.11B	5.04B
Net Income	-1.48B	-754.00M	399.00M	1.33B	2.99B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	20.01B	20.95B	17.54B	18.75B	18.98B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	57.00M	54.00M	198.00M	26.00M	48.00M
Total Debt	8.17B	7.77B	3.59B	4.70B	5.80B
Total Liabilities	13.69B	14.05B	9.41B	10.71B	13.20B
Stockholders Equity	6.12B	6.66B	7.89B	7.79B	5.49B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-1.02B	-590.00M	1.59B	1.48B	2.08B
Operating Cash Flow	-462.00M	105.00M	2.23B	2.42B	2.79B
Investing Cash Flow	-479.00M	-3.21B	-591.00M	-936.00M	-1.38B
Financing Cash Flow	942.00M	2.97B	-1.47B	-1.51B	-1.47B

Cleveland-Cliffs Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 8.35
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CLF, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 8.35 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.20, below the 50-day MA of 12.15, and below the 200-day MA of 11.24, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.95 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 28.52 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 3.58 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CLF.

Cleveland-Cliffs Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
STLD	69 Neutral	$25.25B	21.13	13.31%	1.11%	-1.49%	-31.82%
CMC	67 Neutral	$6.84B	10.04	10.54%	1.02%	-1.61%	-81.36%
MT	65 Neutral	$38.35B	11.03	5.87%	1.03%	-4.51%	―
NUE	65 Neutral	$37.07B	21.58	8.49%	1.34%	1.66%	-31.25%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
GGB	61 Neutral	$6.43B	29.29	2.53%	2.92%	-2.53%	-36.08%
CLF	45 Neutral	$4.91B	-4.42	-24.89%	―	-6.76%	-255.94%

Cleveland-Cliffs Corporate Events

Cleveland-Cliffs Announces Board Leadership and Committee Changes

On February 19, 2026, Cleveland-Cliffs Lead Director Douglas C. Taylor tendered his resignation from the board, following a change in his primary occupation as required under the company’s corporate governance guidelines. The board, acting on a committee recommendation, accepted his resignation effective February 22, 2026, and emphasized that his departure did not stem from any disagreement over operations, policies or practices.

Also on February 22, 2026, the board moved swiftly to reassign Taylor’s former responsibilities, appointing Ralph S. Michael, III as Lead Director and naming Edilson T. Camara as Chairman of the Compensation and Organization Committee. The succession decisions underscore the company’s effort to maintain continuity in board leadership and oversight of executive pay and organizational matters, signaling stable governance for investors and other stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (CLF) stock is a Hold with a $10.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cleveland-Cliffs stock, see the CLF Stock Forecast page.