Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (CLF)
NYSE:CLF
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Cleveland-Cliffs
(NYSE:CLF)
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Rating:45Neutral
Price Target:
$8.00
▼(-6.21% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/15/26
The score is held down primarily by deteriorated financial performance (losses, negative 2025 operating/free cash flow, and higher leverage) and a bearish technical setup (price below key moving averages with weak momentum). These are partially offset by a more optimistic 2026 outlook from the earnings call (shipment, pricing and cost-improvement guidance plus the slab-contract EBITDA benefit), while valuation remains constrained by losses and the absence of a dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Secured OEM Contracts
Multi-year fixed contracts with major OEMs lock in higher-margin, predictable volumes that support long-term utilization and planning. This durable commercial win backs capacity absorption without new plants, stabilizing revenue mix and improving margin sustainability as automotive volumes recover.
Negative Factors
Prolonged Revenue Decline
Three consecutive years of revenue decline signal structural demand and mix issues that compress scale economics. Lower volumes reduce capacity absorption, weaken bargaining power on pricing, and make it harder to restore prior margins; recovery depends on sustained end‑market improvement.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Secured OEM Contracts
Multi-year fixed contracts with major OEMs lock in higher-margin, predictable volumes that support long-term utilization and planning. This durable commercial win backs capacity absorption without new plants, stabilizing revenue mix and improving margin sustainability as automotive volumes recover.
Read all positive factors
Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.87B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)17.73M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.82
Revenue Growth-6.76%
EPS Growth-255.94%
CountryUS
Employees30,000
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustrySteel
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.43
Shares Outstanding570,390,500
10 Day Avg. Volume18,167,873
30 Day Avg. Volume17,732,145
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.05
Price to Book (P/B)1.07
Price to Sales (P/S)0.35
P/FCF Ratio-6.39
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.69
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.70
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-15.63
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-103.83
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$12.75Price Target Upside49.47% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.35
Revenue Forecast (FY)$20.23B
Cleveland-Cliffs Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. operates as a flat-rolled steel producer in North America. The company offers carbon steel products, such as hot-rolled, cold-rolled, electrogalvanized, hot-dip galvanized, hot-dip galvannealed, aluminized, enameling, and adv...
How the Company Makes Money
Cleveland-Cliffs makes money primarily by producing and selling steel and steel-related products to industrial customers, with revenue largely tied to shipment volumes and realized selling prices under customer contracts and market conditions. The...
Cleveland-Cliffs Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 09, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 20, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a constructive and optimistic view for 2026: management highlights meaningful operational fixes completed in 2025 (asset rationalization, labor reductions, coal hedges), improving market dynamics (spot steel at a two‑year high, Canadian import restrictions), a sizeable one‑time benefit from ending the slab contract (~$500M EBITDA estimate), strong liquidity ($3.3B) and multi‑year OEM contracts that underpin a recovery. Near‑term headwinds include 2025 demand weakness, Stelco underperformance, temporary utility/scrap cost pressure, and elevated leverage. Overall, the positives — expected price recovery, cost reductions, order book strength, capacity ready to absorb reshored automotive volumes, and strategic partnership momentum (POSCO) — outweigh the lowlights, supporting a positive outlook for 2026.Positive Updates
Improving Shipments and 2026 Volume Guidance
Q4 shipments were 3.8 million tons; management expects Q1 shipments to return to ~4.0 million tons and full year 2026 shipments of 16.5–17.0 million tons, indicating higher utilizations versus 2025.
Negative Updates
2025 Demand Weakness and Import Pressure
Management cited significant exposure to steel imports in 2025 which poisoned domestic markets, created a demand gap, reduced shipments and asset utilization, and forced asset shutdowns and restructuring actions.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Improving Shipments and 2026 Volume Guidance
Q4 shipments were 3.8 million tons; management expects Q1 shipments to return to ~4.0 million tons and full year 2026 shipments of 16.5–17.0 million tons, indicating higher utilizations versus 2025.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided Q1 shipments of about 4.0 million tons and full‑year 2026 shipments of 16.5–17.0 million tons, and expects price realization to improve roughly $60/ton versus 2025 (Q4 realization was $993/net ton) with an ASP mix of ~35–40% fixed, ~25% CRU month‑lag, ~10% CRU quarter‑lag and ~25–30% spot; unit costs should fall another ~$10/ton for the year (after a $40/ton reduction in 2025) though Q1 costs may be ~+$20/ton before normalizing in Q2. They forecast 2026 CapEx of ~ $700M (2025 was $561M), rising to ~ $900M in 2027 for the Burns Harbor reline and returning to ~ $700M in 2028; coal contracts are expected to save >$100M/year. Management also cited a roughly $500M EBITDA upside from the terminated slab contract (about $700M revenue benefit at current HRC/slab spreads less ~$150M conversion), target asset‑sale proceeds of $425M (≈$60M closed), year‑end liquidity of $3.3B, nearest bond maturity in 2029, ~50% hedging of one‑year gas exposure, and an intent to restore healthy cash flow and prioritize debt paydown in 2026.Cleveland-Cliffs Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
30
Negative
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
28
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 18.61B | 19.18B | 22.00B | 22.99B | 20.44B |
| Gross Profit | -763.00M | 70.00M | 1.39B | 2.52B | 4.53B |
| EBITDA | -45.00M | 378.00M | 1.86B | 3.11B | 5.04B |
| Net Income | -1.48B | -754.00M | 399.00M | 1.33B | 2.99B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 20.01B | 20.95B | 17.54B | 18.75B | 18.98B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 57.00M | 54.00M | 198.00M | 26.00M | 48.00M |
| Total Debt | 8.17B | 7.77B | 3.59B | 4.70B | 5.80B |
| Total Liabilities | 13.69B | 14.05B | 9.41B | 10.71B | 13.20B |
| Stockholders Equity | 6.12B | 6.66B | 7.89B | 7.79B | 5.49B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -1.02B | -590.00M | 1.59B | 1.48B | 2.08B |
| Operating Cash Flow | -462.00M | 105.00M | 2.23B | 2.42B | 2.79B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -479.00M | -3.21B | -591.00M | -936.00M | -1.38B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 942.00M | 2.97B | -1.47B | -1.51B | -1.47B |
Cleveland-Cliffs Technical Analysis
Negative
8.53
Price Trends
10.69
Negative
11.69
Negative
11.31
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.62
Negative
40.84
Neutral
67.59
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CLF, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 8.53 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.51, below the 50-day MA of 10.69, and below the 200-day MA of 11.31, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.62 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 40.84 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.59 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CLF.
Cleveland-Cliffs Risk Analysis
Cleveland-Cliffs disclosed 28 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Cleveland-Cliffs reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Cleveland-Cliffs Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | $39.16B | 11.03 | 5.87% | 1.03% | -4.51% | ― | |
65 Neutral | $38.63B | 21.58 | 8.49% | 1.34% | 1.66% | -31.25% | |
63 Neutral | $25.58B | 21.13 | 13.31% | 1.11% | -1.49% | -31.82% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
61 Neutral | $6.79B | 21.86 | 11.88% | 1.02% | -1.61% | -81.36% | |
61 Neutral | $7.30B | 29.29 | 2.53% | 2.92% | -2.53% | -36.08% | |
45 Neutral | $4.87B | -4.42 | -24.89% | ― | -6.76% | -255.94% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
CLF
Cleveland-Cliffs
8.53
1.67
24.34%
MT
ArcelorMittal
53.34
30.23
130.78%
CMC
Commercial Metals Company
61.27
22.55
58.22%
GGB
Gerdau SA
3.76
1.53
68.69%
NUE
Nucor
169.59
67.46
66.05%
STLD
Steel Dynamics
176.53
67.77
62.31%
Cleveland-Cliffs Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Cleveland-Cliffs Announces Board Leadership and Committee Changes
Neutral
Feb 23, 2026
On February 19, 2026, Cleveland-Cliffs Lead Director Douglas C. Taylor tendered his resignation from the board, following a change in his primary occupation as required under the company’s corporate governance guidelines. The board, acting o...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.