Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (CLF)
NYSE:CLF
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Cleveland-Cliffs
(NYSE:CLF)
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Rating:48Neutral
Price Target:
$9.00
▼(-9.46% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/22/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance—ongoing losses and especially negative operating/free cash flow—plus elevated leverage. This is partially offset by a more positive earnings-call outlook pointing to higher shipments, improving pricing, and expected positive free cash flow in Q2, while technical indicators and valuation remain mixed given the longer-term downtrend and negative P/E.
Positive Factors
Strong order book and OEM demand
A full order book and rising automotive OEM bookings provide durable demand visibility and pricing leverage. Extended lead times support better realization of market prices and higher capacity utilization, underpinning sustainable margin recovery and steadier revenue over coming quarters.
Negative Factors
Negative operating and free cash flow
Sustained negative operating and free cash flow implies the business is burning cash and reliant on external financing or asset sales to fund operations and capex. That constrains reinvestment, limits strategic optionality, and raises vulnerability if market recovery delays.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong order book and OEM demand
A full order book and rising automotive OEM bookings provide durable demand visibility and pricing leverage. Extended lead times support better realization of market prices and higher capacity utilization, underpinning sustainable margin recovery and steadier revenue over coming quarters.
Read all positive factors
Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.57B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)16.46M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.88
Revenue Growth1.58%
EPS Growth3.88%
CountryUS
Employees30,000
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustrySteel
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.40
Shares Outstanding570,414,700
10 Day Avg. Volume12,351,768
30 Day Avg. Volume16,459,058
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.05
Price to Book (P/B)1.07
Price to Sales (P/S)0.35
P/FCF Ratio-6.39
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.43
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.72
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-25.67
Enterprise Value/Ebitda101.14
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$10.49Price Target Upside5.52% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.45
Revenue Forecast (FY)$20.51B
Cleveland-Cliffs Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. operates as a flat-rolled steel producer in North America. The company offers carbon steel products, such as hot-rolled, cold-rolled, electrogalvanized, hot-dip galvanized, hot-dip galvannealed, aluminized, enameling, and adv...
How the Company Makes Money
Cleveland-Cliffs makes money primarily by producing and selling steel and steel-related products to industrial customers, with revenue largely tied to shipment volumes and realized selling prices under customer contracts and market conditions. The...
Cleveland-Cliffs Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 20, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| Next Earnings Date:Jul 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a constructive outlook: clear signs of market strength (rising realized prices, recovering shipments, full order book, solid liquidity and expected positive free cash flow in Q2) outweigh several identifiable near-term headwinds (an $80M energy-related EBITDA hit in Q1, working capital build, higher scrap/fuel costs, Stelco pricing discount and Q2 outages). Management positions most negatives as transitory, highlights multiple levers for improved profitability (pricing realization lag easing over coming quarters, operational optimizations, asset sales, DOE modernization), and remains confident in execution and cash generation over the remainder of the year.Positive Updates
Adjusted EBITDA Recovery
Adjusted EBITDA was $95 million in Q1, a year-over-year improvement of $274 million, driven primarily by increased pricing and operating leverage.
Negative Updates
Q1 Energy Spike Hit
An extreme cold-weather-driven energy price spike and higher electricity/industrial gas costs created an $80 million negative impact to Q1 EBITDA versus historical expectations; natural gas locks and volatile power directly affected integrated plants in unregulated states.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Adjusted EBITDA Recovery
Adjusted EBITDA was $95 million in Q1, a year-over-year improvement of $274 million, driven primarily by increased pricing and operating leverage.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management said results should steadily improve through 2026: Q1 adjusted EBITDA was $95 million (up $274 million YoY) on shipments just over 4.1 million tons (a >300k ton sequential recovery), and they expect Q2 shipments to rise and remain above 4.1M with selling prices roughly $60/ton higher Q1→Q2 (Q1 prices were +$68/ton YoY and +$55/ton sequential); U.S. mix is ~45% HRC-linked and contract mix ~43% fixed, 23% monthly-indexed, 7% quarter-lag, 12% U.S. spot and 15% Stelco spot (Canadian selling prices are ~40% below U.S.); Q1 bore an $80M energy-related EBITDA hit and a ~$130M working-capital build, but management expects Q2 to be the best quarter in nearly two years and a return to meaningful positive free cash flow, with costs expected to tick up ~ $15/ton in Q2 (outages) before falling meaningfully in the back half and Q3 (an outage-light quarter) showing full operating leverage as full-year shipments target ~16.5–17.0 million tons; diesel/freight pressures add roughly $50M/year to mining costs (~$6/ton, ~25M gallons diesel/year), natural gas in mining is ~20% of usage, liquidity remains above $3 billion, and management continues to expect $425M of idle-property sale proceeds (≈$70M received to date, with ~ $50M expected in Q2, ~$100M in Q3 and the remainder in Q4).Cleveland-Cliffs Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
32
Negative
Balance Sheet
48
Neutral
Cash Flow
25
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 18.90B | 18.61B | 19.18B | 22.00B | 22.99B | 20.44B |
| Gross Profit | -528.00M | -763.00M | 70.00M | 1.39B | 2.52B | 4.53B |
| EBITDA | 134.00M | -45.00M | 378.00M | 1.86B | 3.11B | 5.04B |
| Net Income | -1.21B | -1.48B | -754.00M | 399.00M | 1.33B | 2.99B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 20.11B | 20.01B | 20.95B | 17.54B | 18.75B | 18.98B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 45.00M | 57.00M | 54.00M | 198.00M | 26.00M | 48.00M |
| Total Debt | 7.76B | 8.17B | 7.77B | 3.59B | 4.70B | 5.80B |
| Total Liabilities | 14.10B | 13.69B | 14.05B | 9.41B | 10.71B | 13.20B |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.82B | 6.12B | 6.66B | 7.89B | 7.79B | 5.49B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -997.00M | -1.02B | -590.00M | 1.59B | 1.48B | 2.08B |
| Operating Cash Flow | -436.00M | -462.00M | 105.00M | 2.23B | 2.42B | 2.79B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -474.00M | -479.00M | -3.21B | -591.00M | -936.00M | -1.38B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 897.00M | 942.00M | 2.97B | -1.47B | -1.51B | -1.47B |
Cleveland-Cliffs Technical Analysis
Neutral
9.94
Price Trends
9.81
Positive
11.56
Negative
11.40
Negative
Market Momentum
0.02
Negative
61.58
Neutral
94.33
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CLF, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 9.94 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.76, above the 50-day MA of 9.81, and below the 200-day MA of 11.40, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.58 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 94.33 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CLF.
Cleveland-Cliffs Risk Analysis
Cleveland-Cliffs disclosed 28 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Cleveland-Cliffs reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Cleveland-Cliffs Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $32.82B | 16.15 | 15.25% | 1.11% | 10.44% | 23.34% | |
66 Neutral | $48.81B | 21.58 | 8.49% | 1.34% | 5.73% | -10.36% | |
65 Neutral | $43.98B | 11.03 | 5.87% | 1.03% | -1.31% | 149.74% | |
64 Neutral | $7.67B | 21.86 | 11.88% | 1.02% | 8.38% | 626.64% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
61 Neutral | $8.07B | -7.69 | 2.53% | 2.92% | 0.25% | -69.88% | |
48 Neutral | $5.57B | -5.03 | -24.89% | ― | 1.58% | 3.88% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
CLF
Cleveland-Cliffs
10.61
2.20
26.16%
MT
ArcelorMittal
59.03
29.30
98.55%
CMC
Commercial Metals Company
69.53
25.33
57.31%
GGB
Gerdau SA
4.32
1.69
64.51%
NUE
Nucor
215.00
98.01
83.77%
STLD
Steel Dynamics
225.04
97.49
76.43%
Cleveland-Cliffs Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Cleveland-Cliffs Announces Board Leadership and Committee Changes
Neutral
Feb 23, 2026
On February 19, 2026, Cleveland-Cliffs Lead Director Douglas C. Taylor tendered his resignation from the board, following a change in his primary occupation as required under the company’s corporate governance guidelines. The board, acting o...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.