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Cleveland-Cliffs
(NYSE:CLF)
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Rating:53Neutral
Price Target:
$12.00
▲(0.59% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/25/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (losses, negative operating/free cash flow, and elevated leverage). Offsetting this, the latest earnings call indicates a potentially sharp near-term operational inflection with materially higher guided EBITDA, pricing and volume improvements, and planned asset-sale proceeds aimed at deleveraging. Technicals are improving but not fully confirmed long-term, and valuation is difficult to underwrite with negative earnings and no dividend yield provided.
Positive Factors
Vertical integration
Owning iron-ore mining through downstream finishing gives Cleveland-Cliffs structural cost and supply advantages. Vertical integration reduces reliance on third-party inputs, helps stabilize internal feedstock availability and margins across cycles, and supports recovery when pricing improves.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Leverage at ~1.37x equity combined with negative returns on equity increases financial rigidity for a cyclical steel producer. If a downturn or slower-than-expected margin recovery occurs, higher debt amplifies liquidity and refinancing risk and constrains strategic optionality including capex and M&A for multiple quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Vertical integration
Owning iron-ore mining through downstream finishing gives Cleveland-Cliffs structural cost and supply advantages. Vertical integration reduces reliance on third-party inputs, helps stabilize internal feedstock availability and margins across cycles, and supports recovery when pricing improves.
Read all positive factors
Cleveland-Cliffs Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Splits revenue across regions (U.S., Canada, Mexico and export markets), revealing where growth is coming from and the company’s exposure to regional economic cycles, tariffs or trade shifts. Geographic mix affects pricing power, logistics costs and sensitivity to local demand conditions.
Splits revenue across regions (U.S., Canada, Mexico and export markets), revealing where growth is coming from and the company’s exposure to regional economic cycles, tariffs or trade shifts. Geographic mix affects pricing power, logistics costs and sensitivity to local demand conditions.
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The Fly
The FlyCleveland-Cliffs (CLF) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$6.57B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)22.21M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.04
Revenue Growth4.03%
EPS Growth52.63%
CountryUS
Employees25,000
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustrySteel
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.67
Shares Outstanding570,540,040
10 Day Avg. Volume29,450,082
30 Day Avg. Volume22,214,437
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.05
Price to Book (P/B)1.07
Price to Sales (P/S)0.35
P/FCF Ratio-6.39
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit>-0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$11.81Price Target Upside-1.01% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.24
Revenue Forecast (FY)$21.38B
Cleveland-Cliffs Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF) is a U.S.-based steel producer and iron ore supplier focused on flat-rolled steel products. The company operates across the steel value chain, including iron ore mining and beneficiation, steelmaking, and downstream fin...
How the Company Makes Money
Cleveland-Cliffs makes money primarily by selling steel products and related materials/services to industrial customers, with revenue largely driven by shipment volumes, product mix, and realized selling prices tied to a combination of contract te...
Cleveland-Cliffs Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 23, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 26, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a marked operational and financial improvement with a clear path to materially higher EBITDA, positive free cash flow, and a near-term leverage reduction target. Key positives include Q2 adjusted EBITDA of $286M, a strong Q3 guide of $575M, price gains (+$76/ton in Q2, +$55/ton expected in Q3), a $400M property-sale pipeline, and a potential $500M EBITDA boost from contract resets. Offsetting risks are manageable near-term headwinds from Q2 maintenance outages and inventory lag, Canadian finishing-line pressures, valuation gaps in asset-sale processes, and reliance on trade policy and OEM decisions for capacity restarts. Overall, the positive operational momentum and sizable quantified upside outweigh the contained lowlights.Positive Updates
Adjusted EBITDA Recovery and Strong Q3 Guidance
Second-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $286 million (the company's best quarter in 2 years), a sequential improvement that management described as tripling from Q1. Company provided Q3 adjusted EBITDA guidance of approximately $575 million (more than double Q2, ~+101%), and expects Q4 to further outperform Q3 based on the HRC curve.
Negative Updates
Sequential Shipment Decline in Q2 Due to Maintenance
Q2 shipments fell sequentially (despite being over 4.0M tons) because of maintenance outages and lagged contracts, which restrained the demonstration of full asset capability in the quarter.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Adjusted EBITDA Recovery and Strong Q3 Guidance
Second-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $286 million (the company's best quarter in 2 years), a sequential improvement that management described as tripling from Q1. Company provided Q3 adjusted EBITDA guidance of approximately $575 million (more than double Q2, ~+101%), and expects Q4 to further outperform Q3 based on the HRC curve.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company provided concrete near-term guidance: Q2 adjusted EBITDA was $286 million on just over 4.0 million tons shipped (and free cash flow turned positive after two years), and management expects Q3 adjusted EBITDA of approximately $575 million (more than double Q2 and the strongest quarter in three years) with shipments above 4.3 million tons (roughly a 300,000‑ton sequential uplift, about half from automotive), average selling price up $76/ton in Q2 and expected to rise another ~$55/ton in Q3, unit costs forecast to fall about $10/ton into Q3 with further cost improvement into Q4, a working‑capital release of ~$55 million in Q2, the bulk of ~$400 million in property‑sale proceeds expected in H2, an anticipated additional ~ $500 million EBITDA benefit from fixed‑price contract resets, and a path to reach sub‑2.5x leverage by this time next year driven by cash flow plus asset sales (guidance largely tied to the HRC forward curve).Cleveland-Cliffs Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
28
Negative
Balance Sheet
42
Neutral
Cash Flow
22
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 19.20B | 18.61B | 19.18B | 22.00B | 22.99B | 20.44B |
| Gross Profit | -124.00M | -763.00M | 70.00M | 1.39B | 2.52B | 4.53B |
| EBITDA | 622.00M | -99.00M | 378.00M | 1.86B | 3.11B | 5.04B |
| Net Income | -876.00M | -1.48B | -754.00M | 399.00M | 1.33B | 2.99B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 20.11B | 20.01B | 20.95B | 17.54B | 18.75B | 18.98B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 70.00M | 57.00M | 54.00M | 198.00M | 26.00M | 48.00M |
| Total Debt | 7.70B | 8.17B | 7.77B | 3.59B | 4.70B | 5.80B |
| Total Liabilities | 14.30B | 13.69B | 14.05B | 9.41B | 10.71B | 13.20B |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.60B | 6.12B | 6.66B | 7.89B | 7.79B | 5.49B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -857.00M | -1.02B | -590.00M | 1.59B | 1.48B | 2.08B |
| Operating Cash Flow | -251.00M | -462.00M | 105.00M | 2.23B | 2.42B | 2.79B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -489.00M | -479.00M | -3.21B | -591.00M | -936.00M | -1.38B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 750.00M | 942.00M | 2.97B | -1.47B | -1.51B | -1.47B |
Cleveland-Cliffs Risk Analysis
Cleveland-Cliffs disclosed 28 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Cleveland-Cliffs reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Cleveland-Cliffs Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $58.60B | 20.50 | 13.53% | 0.90% | 17.19% | 126.69% | |
64 Neutral | $52.12B | 22.51 | 4.31% | 0.86% | 3.25% | -27.63% | |
64 Neutral | $36.01B | 22.70 | 17.60% | 0.83% | 19.77% | 60.80% | |
62 Neutral | $7.60B | 12.84 | 13.65% | 1.10% | 15.23% | 1535.96% | |
62 Neutral | $9.13B | 30.87 | 2.53% | 2.65% | 4.46% | -47.34% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
53 Neutral | $6.57B | -6.90 | -15.23% | ― | 4.03% | 52.63% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
CLF
Cleveland-Cliffs
11.52
1.81
18.64%
MT
ArcelorMittal
70.14
40.05
133.08%
CMC
Commercial Metals Company
68.72
18.96
38.11%
GGB
Gerdau SA
4.96
2.13
75.14%
NUE
Nucor
257.29
122.12
90.35%
STLD
Steel Dynamics
251.26
131.33
109.51%
Cleveland-Cliffs Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Cleveland-Cliffs Promotes Celso Goncalves to President-CFO
Neutral
Jul 24, 2026
On July 21, 2026, Cleveland-Cliffs’ board appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Celso L. Goncalves Jr. as President and Chief Financial Officer, and named him to the board, while Chairman and CEO Lourenco Goncalves r...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Cleveland-Cliffs Shareholders Back Board, Pay and Auditor
Positive
May 20, 2026
At its May 14, 2026 annual meeting, Cleveland-Cliffs shareholders elected all board nominees, including CEO Lourenco Goncalves, to terms running through the 2027 annual meeting, with more than a majority of votes cast in favor of each director. Sh...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.