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Cleveland-Cliffs
(NYSE:CLF)
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Rating:45Neutral
Price Target:
$9.00
▼(-9.46% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/01/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance—ongoing losses, higher leverage, and negative operating/free cash flow. Technicals also remain unfavorable with the stock trading below all major moving averages. Offsetting factors come from a more constructive earnings-call outlook pointing to improving pricing/shipments and a near-term free-cash-flow inflection, but execution and cost/price risks keep the overall score below average.
Positive Factors
Vertical integration & market position
Owning ore, steelmaking and finishing creates durable supply security and cost control versus peers. This vertical chain lets the company capture upstream margins, support OEM contracts, and flex product mix for automotive and industrial customers, strengthening long-term margin recovery potential.
Negative Factors
Negative free cash flow
Sustained negative operating and free cash flow erodes liquidity over time and forces reliance on asset sales or financing. Until margins and working capital normalize, the company faces constrained internal funding for capex, modernization and debt reduction, increasing long-term execution risk.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Vertical integration & market position
Owning ore, steelmaking and finishing creates durable supply security and cost control versus peers. This vertical chain lets the company capture upstream margins, support OEM contracts, and flex product mix for automotive and industrial customers, strengthening long-term margin recovery potential.
Read all positive factors
Cleveland-Cliffs Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.62B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)18.10M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.13
Revenue Growth1.58%
EPS Growth3.88%
CountryUS
Employees30,000
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustrySteel
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-2.39
Shares Outstanding570,414,700
10 Day Avg. Volume19,324,573
30 Day Avg. Volume18,103,904
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.05
Price to Book (P/B)1.07
Price to Sales (P/S)0.35
P/FCF Ratio-6.39
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.66
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.79
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-28.32
Enterprise Value/Ebitda68.90
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$12.44Price Target Upside25.14% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.44
Revenue Forecast (FY)$20.89B
Cleveland-Cliffs Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. stands as a prominent North American manufacturer specializing in flat-rolled steel. The company's diverse product portfolio encompasses a wide array of carbon steel forms, including hot-rolled, cold-rolled, electrogalvanized...
How the Company Makes Money
Cleveland-Cliffs makes money primarily by selling steel products and related materials/services to industrial customers, with revenue largely driven by shipment volumes, product mix, and realized selling prices tied to a combination of contract te...
Cleveland-Cliffs Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 20, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| Next Earnings Date:Jul 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a constructive outlook: clear signs of market strength (rising realized prices, recovering shipments, full order book, solid liquidity and expected positive free cash flow in Q2) outweigh several identifiable near-term headwinds (an $80M energy-related EBITDA hit in Q1, working capital build, higher scrap/fuel costs, Stelco pricing discount and Q2 outages). Management positions most negatives as transitory, highlights multiple levers for improved profitability (pricing realization lag easing over coming quarters, operational optimizations, asset sales, DOE modernization), and remains confident in execution and cash generation over the remainder of the year.Positive Updates
Adjusted EBITDA Recovery
Adjusted EBITDA was $95 million in Q1, a year-over-year improvement of $274 million, driven primarily by increased pricing and operating leverage.
Negative Updates
Q1 Energy Spike Hit
An extreme cold-weather-driven energy price spike and higher electricity/industrial gas costs created an $80 million negative impact to Q1 EBITDA versus historical expectations; natural gas locks and volatile power directly affected integrated plants in unregulated states.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Adjusted EBITDA Recovery
Adjusted EBITDA was $95 million in Q1, a year-over-year improvement of $274 million, driven primarily by increased pricing and operating leverage.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management said results should steadily improve through 2026: Q1 adjusted EBITDA was $95 million (up $274 million YoY) on shipments just over 4.1 million tons (a >300k ton sequential recovery), and they expect Q2 shipments to rise and remain above 4.1M with selling prices roughly $60/ton higher Q1→Q2 (Q1 prices were +$68/ton YoY and +$55/ton sequential); U.S. mix is ~45% HRC-linked and contract mix ~43% fixed, 23% monthly-indexed, 7% quarter-lag, 12% U.S. spot and 15% Stelco spot (Canadian selling prices are ~40% below U.S.); Q1 bore an $80M energy-related EBITDA hit and a ~$130M working-capital build, but management expects Q2 to be the best quarter in nearly two years and a return to meaningful positive free cash flow, with costs expected to tick up ~ $15/ton in Q2 (outages) before falling meaningfully in the back half and Q3 (an outage-light quarter) showing full operating leverage as full-year shipments target ~16.5–17.0 million tons; diesel/freight pressures add roughly $50M/year to mining costs (~$6/ton, ~25M gallons diesel/year), natural gas in mining is ~20% of usage, liquidity remains above $3 billion, and management continues to expect $425M of idle-property sale proceeds (≈$70M received to date, with ~ $50M expected in Q2, ~$100M in Q3 and the remainder in Q4).Cleveland-Cliffs Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
32
Negative
Balance Sheet
48
Neutral
Cash Flow
25
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 18.90B | 18.61B | 19.18B | 22.00B | 22.99B | 20.44B |
| Gross Profit | -528.00M | -763.00M | 70.00M | 1.39B | 2.52B | 4.53B |
| EBITDA | 217.00M | -99.00M | 378.00M | 1.86B | 3.11B | 5.04B |
| Net Income | -1.21B | -1.48B | -754.00M | 399.00M | 1.33B | 2.99B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 20.11B | 20.01B | 20.95B | 17.54B | 18.75B | 18.98B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 45.00M | 57.00M | 54.00M | 198.00M | 26.00M | 48.00M |
| Total Debt | 7.76B | 8.17B | 7.77B | 3.59B | 4.70B | 5.80B |
| Total Liabilities | 14.10B | 13.69B | 14.05B | 9.41B | 10.71B | 13.20B |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.82B | 6.12B | 6.66B | 7.89B | 7.79B | 5.49B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -997.00M | -1.02B | -590.00M | 1.59B | 1.48B | 2.08B |
| Operating Cash Flow | -436.00M | -462.00M | 105.00M | 2.23B | 2.42B | 2.79B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -474.00M | -479.00M | -3.21B | -591.00M | -936.00M | -1.38B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 897.00M | 942.00M | 2.97B | -1.47B | -1.51B | -1.47B |
Cleveland-Cliffs Technical Analysis
Negative
9.94
Price Trends
11.46
Negative
10.54
Negative
11.69
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.67
Positive
36.68
Neutral
12.23
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CLF, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 9.94 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.87, below the 50-day MA of 11.46, and below the 200-day MA of 11.69, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.67 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.68 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 12.23 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CLF.
Cleveland-Cliffs Risk Analysis
Cleveland-Cliffs disclosed 28 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Cleveland-Cliffs reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Cleveland-Cliffs Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $31.78B | 23.52 | 15.25% | 1.11% | 10.44% | 23.34% | |
67 Neutral | $50.27B | 21.83 | 11.16% | 1.34% | 12.27% | 79.72% | |
63 Neutral | $47.08B | 16.46 | 5.35% | 1.03% | -1.31% | 149.74% | |
62 Neutral | $6.83B | 11.54 | 11.88% | 1.02% | 15.23% | 1535.96% | |
62 Neutral | $7.51B | 30.87 | 2.53% | 2.92% | 4.46% | -47.34% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
45 Neutral | $5.62B | -4.13 | -20.91% | ― | 1.58% | 3.88% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
CLF
Cleveland-Cliffs
9.86
1.04
11.79%
MT
ArcelorMittal
63.40
31.08
96.16%
CMC
Commercial Metals Company
61.73
9.77
18.80%
GGB
Gerdau SA
4.07
1.03
34.06%
NUE
Nucor
220.75
84.70
62.26%
STLD
Steel Dynamics
220.39
88.73
67.39%
Cleveland-Cliffs Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Cleveland-Cliffs Shareholders Back Board, Pay and Auditor
Positive
May 20, 2026
At its May 14, 2026 annual meeting, Cleveland-Cliffs shareholders elected all board nominees, including CEO Lourenco Goncalves, to terms running through the 2027 annual meeting, with more than a majority of votes cast in favor of each director. Sh...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.