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Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF)
NYSE:CLF
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Cleveland-Cliffs
(NYSE:CLF)
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Rating:49Neutral
Price Target:
$10.50
▼(-0.85% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/10/26
Overall score reflects weak current financial performance (losses and negative cash flow) as the biggest drag, partially offset by a more optimistic 2026 earnings-call outlook (expected price/cost improvements and a sizable slab-contract EBITDA benefit). Technicals are soft in the near term, and valuation is difficult to support with losses and no dividend yield provided.
Positive Factors
Strong Liquidity & Extended Maturities
A $3.3B liquidity runway and pushed-out maturities materially reduce near-term refinancing risk and give management time to execute operational fixes, asset sales, and capex. This durable financial flexibility supports a multi-quarter recovery plan and funds 2026 growth initiatives without immediate debt stress.
Secured OEM Contracts & Excess Capacity
Multi-year OEM agreements lock in higher-margin, predictable volumes and reduce revenue cyclicality. Combined with existing idle capacity, this structural commercial win allows revenue and margin recovery without major new plant builds, improving utilization and long-term cash generation potential.
Slab Contract Termination Enables Large EBITDA Upside
Ending the slab contract is a structural commercial change that permanently alters the company's cost/revenue mix, capturing higher spreads between HRC and slab. A near-$500M EBITDA benefit, if realized, meaningfully improves structural profitability and accelerates deleveraging and FCF recovery over multiple quarters.
Negative Factors
Multi-year Revenue Decline & Losses
Sustained revenue erosion and back-to-back losses indicate structural demand or competitive pressures that impaired margins. If industry conditions or mix improvements lag management's plan, ongoing negative profitability could deplete equity, hinder investment, and make sustaining operations without external support more difficult.
Deteriorated Cash Generation
A shift from historically positive FCF to negative operating and free cash flow reduces internal funding for capex, debt repayment, and working capital. This necessitates reliance on liquidity or new financing until margins recover, limiting optionality and increasing execution risk for the turnaround plan.
Elevated Leverage vs. Prior Years
Materially higher leverage increases interest and refinancing vulnerability in a cyclical industry. Even with extended maturities, elevated debt requires sustained EBITDA improvement to restore balance-sheet flexibility; failure to generate expected cash could force asset sales or more dilutive financing.
Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$6.04B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)18.76M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.83
Revenue Growth-6.76%
EPS Growth-255.94%
CountryUS
Employees30,000
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustrySteel
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.43
Shares Outstanding570,390,500
10 Day Avg. Volume21,349,216
30 Day Avg. Volume18,763,849
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.05
Price to Book (P/B)1.07
Price to Sales (P/S)0.35
P/FCF Ratio-6.39
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.36
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.77
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-17.05
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-113.24
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$13.16Price Target Upside24.25% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.32
Revenue Forecast (FY)$20.19B
Cleveland-Cliffs Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionCleveland-Cliffs Inc. operates as a flat-rolled steel producer in North America. The company offers carbon steel products, such as hot-rolled, cold-rolled, electrogalvanized, hot-dip galvanized, hot-dip galvannealed, aluminized, enameling, and advanced high-strength steel products; stainless steel products; plates; and grain oriented and non-oriented electrical steel products. It also provides tubular components, including carbon steel, stainless steel, and electric resistance welded tubing. In addition, the company offers tinplate products, such as electrolytic tin coated and chrome coated sheet, and tin mill products; tooling and sampling; raw materials; ingots, rolled blooms, and cast blooms; and hot-briquetted iron products. Further, it owns five iron ore mines in Minnesota and Michigan. The company serves automotive, infrastructure and manufacturing, distributors and converters, and steel producers. Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. was formerly known as Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. and changed its name to Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. in August 2017. The company was founded in 1847 and is headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio.
How the Company Makes MoneyCleveland-Cliffs generates revenue primarily through the sale of iron ore pellets and steel products. The company has a strong focus on vertical integration, producing iron ore, which is then used in its steelmaking operations. Key revenue streams include the sales of flat-rolled steel, which is sold to various industries including automotive and construction. Additionally, Cleveland-Cliffs benefits from long-term supply agreements with major customers, ensuring consistent demand for its products. The company also capitalizes on market fluctuations in steel prices and iron ore demand, which can significantly impact its earnings. Strategic partnerships and acquisitions, such as the purchase of AK Steel and other steelmaking facilities, further enhance its market position and revenue potential.
Cleveland-Cliffs Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 09, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 17, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a constructive and optimistic view for 2026: management highlights meaningful operational fixes completed in 2025 (asset rationalization, labor reductions, coal hedges), improving market dynamics (spot steel at a two‑year high, Canadian import restrictions), a sizeable one‑time benefit from ending the slab contract (~$500M EBITDA estimate), strong liquidity ($3.3B) and multi‑year OEM contracts that underpin a recovery. Near‑term headwinds include 2025 demand weakness, Stelco underperformance, temporary utility/scrap cost pressure, and elevated leverage. Overall, the positives — expected price recovery, cost reductions, order book strength, capacity ready to absorb reshored automotive volumes, and strategic partnership momentum (POSCO) — outweigh the lowlights, supporting a positive outlook for 2026.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Improving Shipments and 2026 Volume Guidance
Q4 shipments were 3.8 million tons; management expects Q1 shipments to return to ~4.0 million tons and full year 2026 shipments of 16.5–17.0 million tons, indicating higher utilizations versus 2025.
Price Realization Outlook
Q4 price realization was $993 per net ton (down ~ $40/ton vs. prior period). Management expects realized prices to improve starting in 2026 by roughly $60/ton versus 2025 and ASP up ~$60/ton in Q1 2026.
Substantial EBITDA Upside from Slab Contract Termination
Termination of the ArcelorMittal index-based slab contract is expected to materially benefit results — management cited an approximate $500 million EBITDA improvement estimate (Celso characterized as ~ $700 million revenue improvement at current HRC prices with ~$150 million higher conversion costs).
Sustained Unit Cost Reductions and Coal Savings
2025 represented the third straight year of unit cost reductions with another ~$40/ton reduction in 2025. Management locked coal contracts that generate over $100 million of year‑over‑year savings and expects a further ~ $10/ton full‑year cost decline in 2026 (apples‑to‑apples with richer mix the effective reduction is larger).
Strong Liquidity and Balance Sheet Improvements
Total liquidity was $3.3 billion at year-end 2025; debt refinancings moved nearest bond maturity to 2029 and all outstanding bonds are unsecured. ABL draw is the lowest since the Stelco acquisition, providing runway and flexibility.
Operational and Commercial Wins — Automotive Contracts & Capacity
Signed multi‑year fixed‑price contracts with all major OEMs, increasing market share and securing high‑margin business to flow through in 2026. Cleveland‑Cliffs emphasized available installed capacity (no new plants required) to absorb incremental automotive volumes at attractive margins.
Strategic Partnership Momentum (POSCO MOU)
Announced a memorandum of understanding with POSCO; due diligence ongoing with both parties targeting a definitive agreement in 2026. Management described the partnership as the top strategic priority and potentially highly accretive.
Safety Progress
Total recordable incident rate (TRIR), including contractors, was 0.8 per 200,000 hours in 2025, representing a 43% improvement versus 2021 — the lowest TRIR since Cleveland‑Cliffs became a steel producer.
Asset Sale Program and Expected Proceeds
Asset sale process ongoing: $60 million received to date, sale of FPT Florida closed, and management expects $425 million in proceeds from marketed idle assets (with additional larger asset sale opportunities available if needed).
Product Development — Steel Replacing Aluminum
Successfully demonstrated stamping Cleveland‑Cliffs steel into exposed automotive components on existing aluminum forming equipment at production scale with three OEMs, creating a meaningful addressable market opportunity to replace aluminum.
Negative Updates
2025 Demand Weakness and Import Pressure
Management cited significant exposure to steel imports in 2025 which poisoned domestic markets, created a demand gap, reduced shipments and asset utilization, and forced asset shutdowns and restructuring actions.
Q4 Price Realization and Automotive Volume Decline
Q4 price realization declined to $993/ton (≈ $40/ton lower), driven by lagging indices and falling spot prices; automotive volumes fell in 2025 and U.S. vehicle production was down for the third consecutive year, pressuring results.
Stelco Drag and Canadian Market Dislocation
Stelco underperformed in 2025 due to Canadian pricing decoupling from the U.S. because of import dumping; management indicated Stelco was disappointing in 2025 and was a drag on near‑term results (no mill‑level EBITDA disclosed).
Workforce Reductions and Footprint Rationalization
Company reduced ~3,300 employees in 2025 and shut underperforming assets as part of footprint rationalization — a necessary but disruptive cost and operational action.
Near‑Term Cost and Utility Pressures
Recent cold weather drove higher scrap and electricity prices, increasing mini‑mill costs and temporarily pressuring margins; management expects Q1 2026 costs to be up ~ $20/ton before normalizing into Q2.
Elevated Leverage Despite Structural Improvements
Although debt structure was improved (maturities extended), management acknowledged leverage remains too elevated from a pure dollar perspective and emphasized the need to generate EBITDA and cash flow to pay down debt.
Q4 Seasonal Headwinds and Pricing Lags
Q4 shipments were slightly lower than Q3 due to heavier than usual seasonal impacts and pricing lags (monthly/quarterly indices), delaying full visibility to benefits from contract changes until Q2/Q3 2026.
Company Guidance
Management guided Q1 shipments of about 4.0 million tons and full‑year 2026 shipments of 16.5–17.0 million tons, and expects price realization to improve roughly $60/ton versus 2025 (Q4 realization was $993/net ton) with an ASP mix of ~35–40% fixed, ~25% CRU month‑lag, ~10% CRU quarter‑lag and ~25–30% spot; unit costs should fall another ~$10/ton for the year (after a $40/ton reduction in 2025) though Q1 costs may be ~+$20/ton before normalizing in Q2. They forecast 2026 CapEx of ~ $700M (2025 was $561M), rising to ~ $900M in 2027 for the Burns Harbor reline and returning to ~ $700M in 2028; coal contracts are expected to save >$100M/year. Management also cited a roughly $500M EBITDA upside from the terminated slab contract (about $700M revenue benefit at current HRC/slab spreads less ~$150M conversion), target asset‑sale proceeds of $425M (≈$60M closed), year‑end liquidity of $3.3B, nearest bond maturity in 2029, ~50% hedging of one‑year gas exposure, and an intent to restore healthy cash flow and prioritize debt paydown in 2026.Cleveland-Cliffs Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Financials are currently weak: multi-year revenue declines, losses in 2024 with deeper losses in 2025, and gross profit turning negative in 2025. Cash flow has deteriorated to negative operating cash flow in 2025 with negative free cash flow in 2024–2025. Balance sheet leverage has risen materially versus 2022–2023 (debt-to-equity ~1.17–1.19), reducing flexibility in a downturn.Income Statement
Profitability has deteriorated materially. Revenue has been shrinking for three straight years (2023: -4.3%, 2024: -12.8%, 2025: -6.4%), and the business moved from solid profitability in 2021–2022 (double-digit EBITDA and net margins) to losses in 2024 and deeper losses in 2025 (net margin about -7.9% in 2025). Gross profit also flipped negative in 2025, indicating significant cost/price pressure. Strength: the company has demonstrated it can earn strong margins in up-cycles (2021–2022), but the current down-cycle earnings profile is weak.30
Negative
Balance Sheet
Leverage is moderate-to-elevated with debt-to-equity around ~1.17–1.19 in 2024–2025, which reduces flexibility during a downturn. The balance sheet was notably stronger in 2022–2023 (debt-to-equity ~0.46–0.60), but leverage has risen sharply since 2023 as debt increased while equity declined. Total assets have been relatively stable, and equity remains sizable, but ongoing losses (negative returns on equity in 2024) are a key risk if they persist.52
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash generation has weakened significantly. Operating cash flow fell from strong positive levels in 2021–2023 to barely positive in 2024 and turned negative in 2025, while free cash flow was negative in both 2024 and 2025 (worsening in 2025). This combination suggests the company is currently burning cash, which can pressure liquidity and increase reliance on financing. Strength: the company has shown the ability to produce meaningful free cash flow in better markets (2021–2023), but the recent trend is unfavorable.28
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 18.61B | 19.18B | 22.00B | 22.99B | 20.44B |
| Gross Profit | -763.00M | 70.00M | 1.39B | 2.52B | 4.53B |
| EBITDA | -45.00M | 378.00M | 1.86B | 3.11B | 5.04B |
| Net Income | -1.48B | -754.00M | 399.00M | 1.33B | 2.99B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 20.01B | 20.95B | 17.54B | 18.75B | 18.98B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 57.00M | 54.00M | 198.00M | 26.00M | 48.00M |
| Total Debt | 8.17B | 7.77B | 3.59B | 4.70B | 5.80B |
| Total Liabilities | 13.69B | 14.05B | 9.41B | 10.71B | 13.20B |
| Stockholders Equity | 6.12B | 6.66B | 7.89B | 7.79B | 5.49B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -1.02B | -590.00M | 1.59B | 1.48B | 2.08B |
| Operating Cash Flow | -462.00M | 105.00M | 2.23B | 2.42B | 2.79B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -479.00M | -3.21B | -591.00M | -936.00M | -1.38B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 942.00M | 2.97B | -1.47B | -1.51B | -1.47B |
Cleveland-Cliffs Technical Analysis
Negative
10.59
Price Trends
13.06
Negative
12.75
Negative
11.03
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.86
Positive
35.60
Neutral
23.32
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CLF, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 10.59 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.45, below the 50-day MA of 13.06, and below the 200-day MA of 11.03, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.86 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.60 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 23.32 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CLF.
Cleveland-Cliffs Risk Analysis
Cleveland-Cliffs disclosed 28 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Cleveland-Cliffs reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Cleveland-Cliffs Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $27.87B | 24.53 | 13.25% | 1.11% | -1.49% | -31.82% | |
67 Neutral | $8.22B | 19.49 | 10.51% | 1.02% | -1.61% | -81.36% | |
65 Neutral | $49.01B | 16.13 | 6.12% | 1.03% | -4.51% | ― | |
65 Neutral | $40.08B | 23.78 | 8.44% | 1.34% | 1.66% | -31.25% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
61 Neutral | $7.72B | 15.75 | 5.21% | 2.92% | -2.53% | -36.08% | |
49 Neutral | $6.04B | -3.62 | -22.96% | ― | -6.76% | -255.94% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
CLF
Cleveland-Cliffs
10.79
0.22
2.08%
MT
ArcelorMittal
67.12
38.58
135.18%
CMC
Commercial Metals Company
74.58
25.31
51.36%
GGB
Gerdau SA
4.15
1.39
50.42%
NUE
Nucor
175.48
42.62
32.08%
STLD
Steel Dynamics
191.53
59.57
45.14%
Cleveland-Cliffs Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Cleveland-Cliffs Announces Board Leadership and Committee Changes
Neutral
Feb 23, 2026
On February 19, 2026, Cleveland-Cliffs Lead Director Douglas C. Taylor tendered his resignation from the board, following a change in his primary occupation as required under the company’s corporate governance guidelines. The board, acting on a committee recommendation, accepted his resignation effective February 22, 2026, and emphasized that his departure did not stem from any disagreement over operations, policies or practices.
Also on February 22, 2026, the board moved swiftly to reassign Taylor’s former responsibilities, appointing Ralph S. Michael, III as Lead Director and naming Edilson T. Camara as Chairman of the Compensation and Organization Committee. The succession decisions underscore the company’s effort to maintain continuity in board leadership and oversight of executive pay and organizational matters, signaling stable governance for investors and other stakeholders.
The most recent analyst rating on (CLF) stock is a Hold with a $10.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cleveland-Cliffs stock, see the CLF Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.