Adjusted EBITDA Recovery
Adjusted EBITDA was $95 million in Q1, a year-over-year improvement of $274 million, driven primarily by increased pricing and operating leverage.
Shipments and Volume Recovery
First quarter shipments totaled just over 4.1 million tons, a sequential recovery of more than 300,000 tons (roughly +8% quarter-on-quarter); management expects Q2 shipments to increase further and remain above the 4.1 million ton level.
Pricing Momentum
Average selling prices rose $68/ton year-over-year and $55/ton sequentially in Q1; company expects prices to increase ~ $60/ton from Q1 to Q2 and continued realization of market price strength into Q2 and Q3 due to extended lead times and strong order book.
Strong Market Position & Demand
Order book described as full with tight production schedules and extended lead times; automotive OEM demand increasing and evidence of meaningful steel-for-aluminum substitution across automotive, building products, appliances and truck trailers.
Liquidity and Cash/Asset Plan
Liquidity remains above $3.0 billion. Management reiterates a $425 million target from idle property sales (two additional properties under contract) and has received $70 million so far, with a suggested cadence of ~$50M in Q2, ~$100M in Q3 and the remainder in Q4.
Operational and Strategic Progress
DOE-funded modernization projects (Butler electrical steel expansion and Middletown Works modernization) progressing on schedule (Butler & Middletown targeted for 2028 completion); footprint optimization (consolidation to 160-inch mill at Burns Harbor; idling Gary plate finishing) with no layoffs; SG&A at near all-time low post-acquisitions indicating strong cost discipline.
Customer & Quality Recognition
Received Toyota Quality Excellence Award in February, confirming high quality, consistency and reliability which supports share gains and OEM relationships.
Near-Term Cash Flow Outlook
Q1 free cash flow was negative as expected due to working capital timing, but management expects Q2 to deliver meaningful positive free cash flow (Q2 called the best quarter in nearly two years) and Q3 to show the company's earnings power as outages are light and utilization improves.