Capacity Utilization and Upside Potential
Current European capacity utilization at Aperam is between 65% and 75%. Management expects a 7%–10% utilization lift from replacement of imports under trade defense measures, and notes flexible electric-arc-furnace (EAF) capacity that can be ramped quickly to capture this upside.
Near-Term EBITDA Momentum (H1 2026)
Guidance that Q1 2026 EBITDA will be higher than Q4 2025 and a EUR 100 million quarterly run-rate is expected in the first half of 2026, with sequential ramping and stronger momentum in Q2.
Brazil Performance and Protective Duties
Brazil EBITDA improved to approximately EUR 75 million in the period reported and is considered a normalized low-cycle run-rate for 2026. Announced increases in Brazilian duties for certain product categories (from 12.6% to 25%) are expected to have a positive impact, estimated at mid-single-digit EBITDA contribution per quarter and to help pick up results from end-Q2 / early-Q3.
Leadership Journey and M&A Synergies
Management outlines a Leadership Journey adding roughly EUR 150 million incremental EBITDA (including Universal synergies). Additional announced investments are expected to add around EUR 50 million of EBITDA (ramping into 2028 with full effect by 2029).
Normalized EBITDA Guidance and Floor
Company sets a normalized EBITDA target range of EUR 700 million–EUR 800 million. Management explains the range reflects a conservative floor (EUR 700m) with upside tied to trade defense/CBAM effectiveness and margin recovery versus prior cycles.
CapEx Clarity and Multi-Year Investment Plan
2026 CapEx guided at around EUR 200 million. A EUR 160 million site-upgrade program over 3 years is included in the 2026 figure; continuity CapEx around EUR 150 million with similar levels expected in 2027–2028 absent new growth projects.
Recycling & Renewables and Alloys & Specialties Targets
R&R guidance remains at EUR 80–85 million and is considered achievable. Alloys & Specialties expected to reach around EUR 100 million plus ~EUR 60 million contribution from Universal and ~EUR 9 million identified synergies, pointing to >EUR 160 million run-rate by year-end as ramps complete.
Limited Exposure to Nickel Volatility
Management states limited exposure to LME nickel volatility for core stainless business because most nickel requirements are met from scrap; the fuels/alloys business that is LME-related is fully hedged. Alloy surcharge increases in February are deemed of limited relevance to European volumes.