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Assurant (AIZ)
NYSE:AIZ

Assurant (AIZ) AI Stock Analysis

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AIZ

Assurant

(NYSE:AIZ)

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Outperform 72 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$247.00
â–²(7.65% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/20/26
The score is driven primarily by solid and improving financial performance (profitability and cash flow strength with manageable leverage) and supportive earnings-call outlook/capital returns. These positives are tempered by currently weak technical momentum and ongoing risks around earnings volatility (reserve/CAT sensitivity and corporate investment drag), while valuation appears reasonable.
Positive Factors
Diversified business model
Assurant’s multi-segment model (housing, lifestyle, automotive) and broad product set create durable revenue diversification and distribution reach. This structure reduces dependence on any single market, enables cross-selling with large partners, and supports stable long-term cash flows and scale advantages.
Strong cash generation
Material improvement in operating and free cash flow gives the company sustained internal funding for share repurchases, dividends, M&A and growth investments. Reliable cash generation enhances financial flexibility and lowers reliance on external financing over the medium term.
Improving profitability and returns
Margin rebound and healthy ROE indicate the business is capturing underwriting and operational improvements. Higher and more consistent profitability supports capital accumulation, reinvestment and shareholder returns, and suggests the firm can sustain improved returns if underwriting discipline holds.
Negative Factors
Reserve volatility (PYD tailwind)
Earnings are sensitive to reserve development; the removal of a $113M favorable PYD creates a structural headwind that management must offset with underlying business growth. This reserving volatility makes medium-term earnings less predictable and increases forecasting risk.
Catastrophe exposure
Meaningful recurring CAT load is a structural underwriting risk that can compress margins and capital if losses spike. Persistent catastrophe exposure raises earnings volatility and necessitates prudent reinsurance, capital buffers and pricing discipline to protect return metrics over time.
Early-stage home warranty drag
Investments to scale a newly launched home warranty business and related corporate drag will weigh on consolidated profitability until scale and margin improvements materialize. Execution risk and upfront losses can persist for multiple quarters, pressuring near-term cash returns and ROI.

Assurant (AIZ) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Assurant Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAssurant, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides lifestyle and housing solutions that support, protect, and connect consumer purchases in North America, Latin America, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. The company operates through two segments: Global Lifestyle and Global Housing. The Global Lifestyle segment offers mobile device solutions, and extended service products and related services for mobile devices, consumer electronics, and appliances; vehicle protection and related services; and credit protection and other insurance products. The Global Housing segment provides lender-placed homeowners insurance, manufactured housing, and flood insurance; and renters insurance and related products, as well as voluntary manufactured housing insurance, voluntary homeowners insurance, and other specialty products. The company was formerly known as Fortis, Inc. and changed its name to Assurant, Inc. in February 2004. Assurant, Inc. was founded in 1892 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
How the Company Makes MoneyAssurant generates revenue through multiple key streams. Its Global Housing segment derives income from property and casualty insurance policies, predominantly in the rental market, providing coverage for landlords and tenants. The Global Lifestyle segment earns revenue by offering protection plans for mobile devices, appliances, and consumer electronics, as well as extended warranty services. The Global Automotive segment focuses on vehicle service contracts and related products, capturing revenue from automotive dealers and consumers. Additionally, Assurant benefits from strategic partnerships with leading retailers and service providers, enhancing its distribution capabilities and expanding its customer base. The company's revenue is further supported by the effective management of its investment portfolio, which generates income through interest and investment gains.

Assurant Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Adjusted EBITDA by Segment
Adjusted EBITDA by Segment
Reveals profitability across different business units, highlighting which segments are driving earnings and where there may be opportunities or challenges.
Chart InsightsGlobal Housing and Global Lifestyle are the real engines here — both show sustained recovery and recent acceleration tied to lender‑placed strength, renter-channel expansion and new Connected Living/automotive partnerships, which underpins management’s upgraded EBITDA outlook. That momentum is at risk of being partially offset by rising Corporate & Other losses as Assurant invests in an adjacent program and by FX headwinds against Lifestyle; Preneed remains inert. The takeaway: operating momentum is strong, but corporate investment and currency noise will pressure near-term cash flow volatility.
Data provided by:The Fly

Assurant Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 10, 2026
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed predominantly positive momentum: strong multi‑year financial performance, robust growth in Global Housing and Connected Living, new partnerships, significant subscriber and policy growth, active capital returns, and a constructive 2026 outlook on an underlying basis. Key near‑term headwinds include the removal of a $113 million favorable prior‑year reserve development tailwind, planned corporate investments to build the home warranty business (~$15–$20 million in 2026), catastrophe exposure (estimated $180–$185 million CAT load), and a few one‑time charges. Overall, management expects to overcome the PYD and investments and to deliver mid‑to‑high single‑digit underlying growth in 2026, which supports a positive forward view despite these manageable risks.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Sustained Profitable Growth
Ninth consecutive year of profitable growth; 2025 delivered double-digit growth: adjusted EBITDA +11% and adjusted EPS +12% excluding catastrophes, and adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS grew in a 16%–19% range including catastrophes.
Strong Multi-Year Financial Performance
Since 2020, adjusted EBITDA excluding CATS increased by well over $700 million (≈11% CAGR); adjusted EPS excluding CATS reached $22.81 per share with a high‑teens CAGR; five-year average ROE ≈14% and return on tangible equity >30%; total shareholder return of 93% over the period.
Global Housing Momentum
Global Housing adjusted EBITDA grew double digits excluding catastrophes and exceeded $1 billion in 2025 (more than doubled since 2022); achieved an underlying combined ratio of 80% excluding favorable prior‑year reserve development.
Lender-Placed and Renters Growth
Lender-placed in-force policies increased ~5% year‑over‑year and four major lender‑placed partnerships were renewed covering >4 million loans; renters policies rose 15% with new portfolios and PMC signings.
Connected Living Subscriber and Revenue Growth
Added nearly 2 million protected devices in 2025, protecting >66 million devices globally; Connected Living adjusted EBITDA grew mid‑single digits (Connected Living underlying Q4 EBITDA +7%, +$9 million); Global Lifestyle net earned premiums, fees and other income increased 7%.
Global Automotive Progress
Global Automotive delivered mid‑single‑digit earnings growth in 2025 and now protects ~57 million vehicles (nearly 2 million more than prior year); GAP product and claims process improvements contributed to loss improvement.
Strategic Partnerships and New Wins
Expanded partnerships including a new device protection plan with Verizon’s Total Wireless and a multiyear reverse logistics agreement with T‑Mobile; expanded Best Buy Geek Squad partnership and launched long‑term home warranty agreement with Compass International Holdings across six real‑estate brands.
Capital Returns and Liquidity
Returned $138 million to shareholders in the quarter ($94 million repurchases, $44 million dividends); 2025 share repurchases totaled $300 million (top end of range); year‑end liquidity of $887 million; 2026 repurchase plan increased to $250–$350 million.
M&A and Technology Investments
Completed four small acquisitions in 2025, including RL Circular Operations (Australia/New Zealand) to strengthen reverse logistics and AI capabilities; continued investments in AI, robotics and device care automation.
2026 Outlook (Underlying Growth)
Company expects 2026 adjusted EBITDA and EPS to be consistent with 2025 excluding CATS; excluding the $113 million favorable prior‑year development in 2025, expects mid‑ to high‑single‑digit growth in adjusted EBITDA and EPS excluding CATS, with Global Lifestyle leading growth (high single‑digit earnings expansion).
Negative Updates
Prior-Year Reserve Development Tailwind
2025 included $113 million of favorable prior‑year reserve development (PYD); 2026 guidance excludes PYD, requiring the company to overcome this $113 million tailwind (management expects to generate >$130 million EBITDA growth to offset PYD and investments).
Catastrophe and Cat Load Exposure
Q4 included $9 million of reportable catastrophes; company estimates 2026 annual CAT load of $180–$185 million, representing continued exposure to catastrophe losses.
Corporate Investment Drag (Home Warranty)
Corporate EBITDA loss expected at ~ $140 million in 2026, which includes incremental investments (~$15–$20 million in 2026) to build out the Assurant home warranty business and related operating costs before scaling benefits.
Quarterly Adjustments and One-offs Impacting Results
Global Lifestyle Q4 adjusted EBITDA grew only 2% year‑over‑year, impacted by a $7 million non‑run‑rate mobile inventory adjustment; excluding that item underlying Q4 growth was 6%.
Below-the-Line Charges
Q4 included $29 million of restructuring costs (real estate optimization and resource model changes) and an $11 million loss on subsidiary held for sale (legacy long‑term care entity), which weighed on reported results.
Regional Variability and Market Risk
While lender‑placed growth was strong in California and the Midwest, Florida was flat to slightly down, and there is regulatory scrutiny (state regulators exploring profit caps) that could pose risk in certain jurisdictions.
Execution and Early-Stage Investment Risk in Home Warranty
Home warranty is an early rollout (six real‑estate brands); investments are required before scale and there is execution risk as the business is integrated and scaled back into an operating segment from corporate.
Company Guidance
Assurant expects 2026 adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS to be roughly consistent with 2025 on an excluding‑CATs basis (2025 included $113M of favorable prior‑year reserve development); excluding that PYD, management forecasts mid‑ to high‑single‑digit growth in both adjusted EBITDA and EPS excluding CATS and plans to generate >$130M of EBITDA growth to overcome the $113M PYD plus incremental Assurant Home Warranty investment (~$15–$20M). Global Lifestyle is expected to lead with high‑single‑digit earnings growth, Global Housing to deliver solid underlying growth with low‑ to mid‑80s combined ratios, the annual CAT load assumption is $180–185M, Corporate EBITDA loss is expected to be about $140M (including home‑warranty spend), year‑end liquidity was $887M, and capital return plans include $250–350M of share repurchases in 2026 (up from $200–300M) after $300M repurchased in 2025 (+$30M through Feb. 6) and a recently raised dividend (10% increase in Nov.).

Assurant Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Improving fundamentals with steady revenue growth, a meaningful profitability rebound since 2022, and strong 2025 operating/free cash flow. Balance sheet leverage is manageable and trending better, but results have shown notable volatility and earnings are increasingly dependent on Global Housing performance and reserve/underwriting outcomes.
Income Statement
78
Positive
Revenue has grown steadily over the last several years, accelerating into 2023–2025 (2025 revenue up ~2% vs. 2024). Profitability has also improved meaningfully from the 2022 trough, with net margin rising from ~2.7% (2022) to ~6.8% (2025) and operating profitability improving as well. Strengths include the consistent top-line expansion and a solid return on equity (~14.9% in 2024–2025). Key weakness is volatility: 2021 margins were unusually high, followed by a sharp profitability dip in 2022, highlighting earnings sensitivity and less predictable margin performance.
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Leverage appears manageable and improving, with debt-to-equity trending down from ~0.50 (2022) to ~0.38 (2025), supported by rising equity ($4.23B in 2022 to $5.87B in 2025). Returns on equity are healthy in recent periods (~14.9% in 2024–2025), suggesting effective capital use. The main drawback is that total debt remains meaningful in absolute terms (~$2.2B), and balance-sheet strength is still tied to maintaining profitability given the historical earnings variability.
Cash Flow
81
Very Positive
Cash generation strengthened significantly, with operating cash flow rising to ~$1.83B in 2025 from ~$1.33B in 2024 and ~$0.60B in 2022. Free cash flow also expanded sharply in 2025 and was strong relative to earnings (free cash flow roughly matching net income in 2025, and solid coverage in prior years). Weaknesses include notable variability over time (downturn in 2021–2022 before rebounding) and inconsistent free-cash-flow growth year to year, which can complicate forecasting.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue12.81B11.88B11.13B10.19B10.19B
Gross Profit9.89B9.11B8.61B7.83B4.15B
EBITDA1.45B1.26B1.11B640.20M1.05B
Net Income872.70M760.20M642.50M276.60M1.36B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets36.29B35.02B33.64B33.12B33.92B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments10.41B4.19B3.73B7.98B9.50B
Total Debt2.21B2.08B2.08B2.13B2.20B
Total Liabilities30.42B29.91B28.83B28.89B28.46B
Stockholders Equity5.87B5.11B4.81B4.23B5.46B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow1.60B1.11B935.60M410.60M594.30M
Operating Cash Flow1.83B1.33B1.14B596.90M781.70M
Investing Cash Flow-1.46B-657.80M-637.70M-262.10M157.60M
Financing Cash Flow-364.20M-477.50M-403.90M-818.40M-1.09B

Assurant Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price229.44
Price Trends
50DMA
233.53
Negative
100DMA
225.88
Positive
200DMA
212.75
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-3.01
Negative
RSI
51.46
Neutral
STOCH
80.10
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AIZ, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 229.44 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 228.83, below the 50-day MA of 233.53, and above the 200-day MA of 212.75, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -3.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.46 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.10 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AIZ.

Assurant Risk Analysis

Assurant disclosed 41 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Assurant reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Assurant Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
76
Outperform
$5.75B8.8212.35%1.88%2.78%-0.50%
72
Outperform
$11.41B13.4415.90%1.36%6.91%17.60%
68
Neutral
$5.70B8.4514.31%1.89%2.20%9.90%
68
Neutral
$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
66
Neutral
$7.14B11.6911.95%3.58%25.99%426.44%
57
Neutral
$10.40B84.579.94%0.93%22.77%-34.97%
54
Neutral
$14.34B23.897.93%3.69%3.91%55.78%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AIZ
Assurant
229.59
22.91
11.09%
FNF
Fidelity National Financial
52.88
-7.46
-12.36%
FAF
First American Financial
70.11
7.23
11.50%
MTG
MGIC Investment
26.53
2.48
10.33%
ESNT
Essent Group
60.84
4.38
7.75%
RYAN
Ryan Specialty Group
39.35
-29.37
-42.74%

Assurant Corporate Events

Executive/Board Changes
Assurant appoints Lynn Blake to board of directors
Positive
Jan 28, 2026

On January 28, 2026, Assurant appointed former State Street Investment Management executive Lynn Blake to its Board of Directors, with immediate effect, assigning her to the Finance and Risk Committee and the Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee, subject to customary regulatory approvals. Blake brings more than 30 years of asset management experience, including leadership in systematic equity strategies, index fund development, and sustainability and stewardship functions, and her appointment is expected to strengthen Assurant’s financial strategy, risk oversight and governance as it pursues its strategic priorities. As part of the board refresh, the company also announced that director Debra Perry will retire from the Board effective as of Assurant’s 2026 annual shareholder meeting, in line with its director retirement policy.

The most recent analyst rating on (AIZ) stock is a Buy with a $255.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Assurant stock, see the AIZ Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 20, 2026