MGIC Investment Corp (MTG)
NYSE:MTG
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MGIC Investment
(NYSE:MTG)
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Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
$30.00
▲(7.26% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/01/26
The score is driven by strong financial quality (profitability, conservative leverage, solid cash conversion) and supportive valuation (low P/E with a dividend). This is moderated by weaker technical trend signals (below major moving averages) and some earnings-call risks, including modest credit normalization indicators and aggressive capital return relative to earnings.
Positive Factors
Conservative balance sheet and reinsuranceed capital
Zero TTM debt, sizable balance-sheet capital ($6.0B) and a reinsurance program that cut PMIERs required assets by about $3.1B materially reduce balance-sheet volatility and regulatory strain. This durable capital cushion supports underwriting capacity and loss absorption across business cycles.
Negative Factors
Sharp TTM revenue contraction
A dramatic TTM revenue decline of roughly 75% materially weakens the top-line base that underpins future premium recognition and scaling economics. If sustained, this can pressure underwriting leverage, reduce scale benefits and strain earnings resiliency despite current margin strength.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Conservative balance sheet and reinsuranceed capital
Zero TTM debt, sizable balance-sheet capital ($6.0B) and a reinsurance program that cut PMIERs required assets by about $3.1B materially reduce balance-sheet volatility and regulatory strain. This durable capital cushion supports underwriting capacity and loss absorption across business cycles.
Read all positive factors
MGIC Investment (MTG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.48B
Dividend Yield1.89%
Average Volume (3M)2.07M
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.6
Beta (1Y)0.57
Revenue Growth-1.24%
EPS Growth4.62%
CountryUS
Employees555
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.15
Shares Outstanding211,490,260
10 Day Avg. Volume2,180,593
30 Day Avg. Volume2,069,066
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.04
Price to Book (P/B)1.28
Price to Sales (P/S)5.43
P/FCF Ratio7.74
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.08
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.92
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.26
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.31
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$28.33Price Target Upside1.30% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)3.05
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.21B
MGIC Investment Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
MGIC Investment Corporation, through its subsidiaries, provides private mortgage insurance, other mortgage credit risk management solutions, and ancillary services to lenders and government sponsored entities in the United States, Puerto Rico, and...
How the Company Makes Money
MGIC makes money primarily by underwriting and servicing private mortgage insurance on residential mortgage loans. Its core revenue stream is net premiums earned: lenders (or, depending on loan/servicing arrangements, borrowers) pay recurring insu...
MGIC Investment Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 29, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted solid operating and capital strength: strong net income and ROE, 10% YoY book value growth, a 41% increase in NIW, favorable reserve development, and a robust reinsurance and capital position. Management emphasized disciplined capital allocation via a new $750M repurchase authorization and continued dividends, while maintaining expense discipline and stable premium yields. Offsetting items were modest credit-normalization signs—delinquency up modestly (14 bps YoY), persistency down 1 percentage point, slight increase in new-notice severity due to larger loan sizes, and flat investment income. Overall, positive operating and capital metrics materially outweigh the limited credit and macro uncertainties discussed.Positive Updates
Strong Quarterly Earnings and ROE
Net income of $165 million in Q1 2026, delivering an annualized return on equity of 13% and EPS of $0.76 per diluted share (vs. $0.75 a year ago).
Negative Updates
Modest Increase in Delinquency Rate
Account-based delinquency rate increased 14 basis points year over year and 1 basis point sequentially. Management noted less pronounced seasonal tailwinds and some servicer reporting timing effects contributed to the sequential uptick.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Quarterly Earnings and ROE
Net income of $165 million in Q1 2026, delivering an annualized return on equity of 13% and EPS of $0.76 per diluted share (vs. $0.75 a year ago).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that they expect 2026 insurance‑in‑force to be “relatively flat,” with annual persistency to remain elevated (84% reported this quarter, down from 85% last quarter, with a quarterly run‑rate nearer 80%), and the in‑force premium yield to stay roughly flat at 38 bps; they reiterated a strong capital position with $6.0 billion of balance‑sheet capital and a reinsurance program that reduced PMIERs required assets by $3.1 billion (≈52%), and emphasized disciplined capital allocation including a board‑authorized $750 million repurchase program, an approved $0.15/share dividend payable May 21 (and $35 million paid this quarter), continued share repurchases (7.2 million shares/$193 million in Q1 and an additional 1.7 million/$47 million through April 24), noting that repurchases plus dividends totaled $888 million over the prior four quarters (repurchases $750M + dividends $138M) equal to a 123% payout of net income; other metrics and assumptions underpinning guidance included Q1 net income $165 million (annualized ROE 13%), book value per share $23.63 (+10% YoY), NIW $14.0 billion (+41% YoY, refinance share ~20–21%), investment income $62 million with a ~4% book yield (reinvestment rates exceeding book yield), favorable reserve development of $31 million (initial claim rate assumption 7.5%), Q1 underwriting & other expenses $48 million with full‑year operating expense guidance of $190–$200 million, and continued monitoring of macro drivers (rates, unemployment, affordability) that could alter these outcomes.MGIC Investment Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
88
Very Positive
Cash Flow
79
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.20B | 1.21B | 1.21B | 1.16B | 1.17B | 1.19B |
| Gross Profit | 1.13B | 1.15B | 1.21B | 1.17B | 1.41B | 1.11B |
| EBITDA | 939.32M | 971.09M | 1.02B | 974.36M | 1.19B | 939.15M |
| Net Income | 718.19M | 738.35M | 762.99M | 712.95M | 865.35M | 634.98M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 6.42B | 6.64B | 6.55B | 6.54B | 6.21B | 7.33B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 5.94B | 375.51M | 6.08B | 6.09B | 5.74B | 6.87B |
| Total Debt | 646.51M | 646.14M | 644.67M | 643.20M | 662.81M | 1.15B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.38B | 1.49B | 1.37B | 1.47B | 1.57B | 2.46B |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.04B | 5.15B | 5.17B | 5.07B | 4.64B | 4.86B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 704.96M | 851.77M | 723.86M | 710.96M | 646.76M | 692.20M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 706.05M | 852.80M | 725.03M | 712.96M | 650.01M | 696.32M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 242.78M | 228.37M | -142.00M | -179.19M | 410.49M | -160.75M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -912.03M | -940.28M | -719.04M | -496.04M | -1.03B | -527.29M |
MGIC Investment Technical Analysis
Negative
27.97
Price Trends
26.65
Negative
26.85
Negative
27.16
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.29
Positive
46.23
Neutral
35.79
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MTG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 27.97 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 27.00, above the 50-day MA of 26.65, and above the 200-day MA of 27.16, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.29 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.23 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 35.79 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MTG.
MGIC Investment Risk Analysis
MGIC Investment disclosed 28 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. MGIC Investment reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
MGIC Investment Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
85 Outperform | $5.57B | 7.98 | 12.01% | 1.88% | 1.34% | 2.64% | |
80 Outperform | $6.01B | 8.61 | 12.74% | 2.02% | 1.98% | 3.55% | |
77 Outperform | $4.91B | 9.13 | 12.01% | 2.78% | 7.69% | 3.24% | |
76 Outperform | $5.48B | 8.58 | 14.00% | 1.89% | -1.24% | 4.62% | |
76 Outperform | $2.85B | 7.19 | 0.06% | ― | 7.29% | 6.16% | |
73 Outperform | $6.84B | 12.41 | 12.56% | 3.58% | 27.63% | 328.74% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
* Financial Sector Average
MTG
MGIC Investment
26.38
0.36
1.37%
FAF
First American Financial
68.61
11.43
19.99%
RDN
Radian Group
37.85
4.56
13.70%
ESNT
Essent Group
62.07
4.19
7.23%
NMIH
NMI Holdings
38.56
-0.07
-0.18%
ACT
Enact Holdings
44.04
7.85
21.69%
MGIC Investment Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
MGIC Shareholders Back Directors, Pay Plan and Auditor
Positive
Apr 23, 2026
At MGIC Investment’s annual meeting of shareholders held on April 23, 2026, investors elected the full slate of directors nominated in the 2026 proxy statement, including C. Edward Chaplin, Curt S. Culver, Jay C. Hartzell, Martin P. Klein, T...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.