MGIC Investment (MTG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $5.91B
• Dividend Yield: 1.89%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.94M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.59
• Revenue Growth: 2.20%
• EPS Growth: 9.90%
• Country: US
• Employees: 555
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Insurance - Specialty
• EPS (TTM): 0.83
• Shares Outstanding: 223,740,980
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,201,601
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,937,980
• PEG Ratio: 0.51
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.20
• Price to Sales (P/S): 5.14
• P/FCF Ratio: 8.57
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.98
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.74
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.88
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 5.79
• 1Y Price Target: $29.00
• Price Target Upside: 9.72% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 76 Outperform
• Price Target: $29.00 ▲(9.72% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (high profitability, strong cash conversion, and conservative leverage) and supportive valuation (low P/E with a dividend). This is partially offset by weak technical momentum (price below all major moving averages with negative MACD and oversold readings) and earnings-call risk factors including rising delinquencies and cost pressures.

Positive Factors

Market leadership / scale

A $300B+ insurance-in-force base is a durable competitive asset: it spreads fixed costs, deepens borrower/lender relationships, and provides extensive loss-history data for pricing and underwriting. Scale supports long-term market share and resilience through credit cycles.

Balance sheet strength

A near-term debt-free balance sheet with sizable equity enhances capital flexibility to underwrite new policies, absorb loss volatility, and return capital. This structural strength reduces refinancing risk and supports conservative capital management over multiple cycles.

Cash generation and profitability

High-quality cash conversion and robust operating cash flow indicate earnings are well-supported by cash, enabling sustained dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment. This durable cash generation underpins capital returns and financial resilience across economic cycles.

Negative Factors

TTM revenue contraction

A meaningful trailing‑12‑month revenue decline signals pressure on the top line that can persistently limit growth capacity. Sustained revenue contraction could constrain underwriting scale, reduce operating leverage benefits, and ultimately pressure long-term earnings and capital return ability.

Rising delinquency trends

Rising delinquencies are a structural underwriting risk that can increase loss reserves and claims over time. Persistent upward trends erode margin sustainability, raise capital needs, and may force tighter pricing or higher capital charges that weaken long-term profitability.

Potential increased competition

New entrants or intensified competition could pressure pricing and market share in mortgage insurance over the medium term. Structural margin compression would challenge sustained high profitability and could require increased marketing, product investment, or reduced capital returns to defend position.

MGIC Investment Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

MGIC Investment Corporation, through its subsidiaries, provides private mortgage insurance, other mortgage credit risk management solutions, and ancillary services to lenders and government sponsored entities in the United States, Puerto Rico, and Guam. The company offers primary mortgage insurance that provides mortgage default protection on individual loans, as well as covers unpaid loan principal, delinquent interest, and various expenses associated with the default and subsequent foreclosure. It also provides contract underwriting services, as well as reinsurance. The company serves originators of residential mortgage loans, including savings institutions, commercial banks, mortgage brokers, credit unions, mortgage bankers, and other lenders. MGIC Investment Corporation was founded in 1957 and is headquartered in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

How the Company Makes Money

MGIC generates revenue primarily through the sale of mortgage insurance premiums. When lenders require mortgage insurance for loans with low down payments, they pay premiums to MGIC. This creates a steady stream of income for the company. Additionally, MGIC earns money through investment income generated from its portfolio of invested premiums and reserves. The company also benefits from reinsurance arrangements, which allow it to manage risk effectively while enhancing its revenue potential. Key partnerships with mortgage lenders and brokers play a crucial role in expanding MGIC's market reach, further driving revenue growth. Overall, the company's earnings are influenced by housing market conditions, default rates, and broader economic factors.

MGIC Investment Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong fundamentals driven by very high profitability, a strong/debt-free balance sheet in TTM, and robust cash generation with free cash flow closely tracking net income (~0.99x). The main offset is the recent TTM revenue contraction (-17.6%) and some volatility/data-consistency flags in certain reported ratios.

Income Statement

Profitability is a clear strength, with consistently high net margins (~54%–74% in the annual periods shown) and strong earnings power across the cycle. Revenue has been fairly stable in recent years, but growth is mixed: modest growth in 2024 followed by a notable decline in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) (revenue growth rate -17.6%). Net income remains resilient (TTM ~$754M vs. 2024 ~$763M), but the top-line contraction and some margin volatility are key watch items.

Balance Sheet

Balance sheet quality looks strong, highlighted by low leverage historically and a debt-free position in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) (total debt shown as 0; debt-to-equity 0.0). Equity is sizable (~$5.17B) and returns on equity are solid and steady (~13%–19% over the period). The main caveat is that total debt was meaningful in prior years (~$0.64B–$1.24B), so the shift to zero debt may reflect reporting/definition changes or a significant capital structure move—either way, leverage risk appears contained based on the data provided.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is very strong and high quality: free cash flow closely tracks net income in every period (~0.99x), suggesting earnings are well-supported by cash. Operating and free cash flow are consistently robust (TTM operating cash flow ~$804M; free cash flow ~$803M). The key weakness is volatility in growth rates (including declines in 2021–2022 and a very large jump in TTM free cash flow growth), and one annual period shows a zero operating cash flow coverage ratio, indicating some inconsistency in reported coverage/inputs.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.22B	1.21B	1.16B	1.17B	1.19B	1.20B
Gross Profit	1.18B	1.21B	1.17B	1.41B	1.11B	821.99M
EBITDA	996.30M	1.02B	974.36M	1.19B	939.15M	676.67M
Net Income	753.74M	762.99M	712.95M	865.35M	634.98M	446.09M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	6.63B	6.55B	6.54B	6.21B	7.33B	7.35B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	271.79M	6.08B	6.09B	5.74B	6.87B	6.95B
Total Debt	0.00	644.67M	643.20M	662.81M	1.15B	1.24B
Total Liabilities	1.45B	1.37B	1.47B	1.57B	2.46B	2.66B
Stockholders Equity	5.17B	5.17B	5.07B	4.64B	4.86B	4.70B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	803.49M	723.86M	710.96M	646.76M	692.20M	729.00M
Operating Cash Flow	804.42M	725.03M	712.96M	650.01M	696.32M	732.31M
Investing Cash Flow	113.06M	-142.00M	-179.19M	410.49M	-160.75M	-772.51M
Financing Cash Flow	-945.30M	-719.04M	-496.04M	-1.03B	-527.29M	167.82M

MGIC Investment Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 26.43
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MTG, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 26.43 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 27.43, below the 50-day MA of 28.21, and below the 200-day MA of 27.04, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.59 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.46 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.01 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for MTG.

MGIC Investment Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ACT	82 Outperform	$5.68B	9.03	12.75%	2.02%	2.40%	1.18%
ESNT	81 Outperform	$6.00B	9.04	12.35%	1.88%	2.78%	-0.50%
NMIH	79 Outperform	$2.92B	8.11	16.17%	―	8.86%	9.51%
MTG	76 Outperform	$5.91B	8.50	14.40%	1.89%	2.20%	9.90%
FAF	74 Outperform	$6.50B	13.71	9.28%	3.58%	25.99%	426.44%
RDN	72 Outperform	$4.46B	8.22	12.56%	2.78%	-3.68%	3.65%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%

MGIC Investment Corporate Events

MGIC Investment Board Member Announces Resignation

On December 11, 2025, Analisa M. Allen, a member of the Board of Directors of MGIC Investment Corporation, announced her intention to resign effective January 31, 2026. Her decision to step down was not due to any disagreements regarding the company’s operations, policies, or practices.

The most recent analyst rating on (MTG) stock is a Hold with a $28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MGIC Investment stock, see the MTG Stock Forecast page.

MGIC Investment Appoints New Board Members

On October 22, 2025, MGIC Investment Corporation’s Board of Directors elected Martin P. Klein and Daniela A. O’Leary-Gill as new members. Mr. Klein, with extensive experience in financial roles at Athene Holdings LTD and Genworth Financial, joins the Risk Management and Securities Investment Committees. Ms. O’Leary-Gill, who has held senior roles at BMO Financial Group and Discover Financial Services, joins the Audit and Business Transformation & Technology Committees. On October 31, 2025, both will receive restricted stock units valued at $36,302.00 under the MGIC Investment Corporation Deferred Compensation Plan for Non-Employee Directors, reflecting a pro-rated annual grant for non-management directors.

The most recent analyst rating on (MTG) stock is a Buy with a $31.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MGIC Investment stock, see the MTG Stock Forecast page.