NMI Holdings (NMIH) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.15B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 461.28K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.62
• Revenue Growth: 8.86%
• EPS Growth: 9.51%
• Country: US
• Employees: 230
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Insurance - Specialty
• EPS (TTM): 1.20
• Shares Outstanding: 76,867,930
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 594,897
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 461,277
• PEG Ratio: 0.73
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.22
• Price to Sales (P/S): 4.49
• P/FCF Ratio: 7.55
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: -12.87
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: -58.47
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -63.45
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -76.43
• 1Y Price Target: $46.25
• Price Target Upside: 13.03% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 82 Outperform
• Price Target: $47.00 ▲(14.86% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (high profitability, improving leverage, and solid cash generation) and supportive earnings-call takeaways (record results, strong capital/reinsurance position, and ongoing buybacks). Technicals add moderate momentum support, while valuation is favorable due to the low P/E. The main risk tempering the score is rising defaults/claims and persistency normalization, alongside some inconsistencies in the provided 2025 financial-statement fields.

Positive Factors

High and Stable Profitability

Consistently elevated net margins indicate durable underwriting economics and pricing power in the mortgage insurance franchise. High margins support strong internal capital generation, fund buybacks and reinvestment, and provide a buffer against rising claims or cyclical loss spikes over a multi-quarter horizon.

Improving Balance Sheet & Low Leverage

Material decline in leverage and rising equity capital point to greater financial flexibility and lower default risk from the balance sheet. Conservative leverage enables sustained buybacks, absorbing underwriting volatility, and supports regulatory capital requirements that underpin long-term franchise stability.

Durable Risk Transfer & Capital Cushion

Long-dated quota-share and excess-of-loss treaties extend capital capacity and shift tail risk to reinsurers. Combined with a reported PMIERs asset excess, this structural risk-transfer program allows the company to scale NIW with controlled capital consumption and predictable cost of capital over multiple years.

Negative Factors

Persistency Decline

Lower persistency reduces the average life of active policies, forcing higher new insurance written to sustain earned premium and exacerbating acquisition and onboarding costs. Over several quarters this can depress earned yields, increase turnover of higher-quality vintages, and compress long-term profitability.

Rising Defaults and Claims

A rising default count and higher claims directly increase loss emergence and reserve needs, pressuring underwriting results and potentially raising reinsurance pricing. If defaults trend upward for multiple quarters, the company may face margin erosion and higher capital consumption to support claim payouts.

Reinsurance Dependency & Yield Volatility

Heavy use of quota-share and other reinsurance shifts yield and profit commission volatility to the company’s net results. Changes in reinsurance pricing or cancellation earnings can materially affect net yields and earnings predictability over multiple quarters, making margins more sensitive to external reinsurance markets.

NMI Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

NMI Holdings, Inc. provides private mortgage guaranty insurance services in the United States. The company offers mortgage insurance services; and outsourced loan review services to mortgage loan originators. It serves national and regional mortgage banks, money center banks, credit unions, community banks, builder-owned mortgage lenders, internet-sourced lenders, and other non-bank lenders. NMI Holdings, Inc. was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Emeryville, California.

How the Company Makes Money

NMI Holdings generates revenue primarily through the premiums collected from its private mortgage insurance policies. The company charges lenders a premium to insure a portion of the mortgage amount, which provides coverage against borrower defaults. Additionally, NMIH earns income from investment income on the premiums it receives before claims are paid out. The company also benefits from economies of scale as it grows its insurance portfolio, allowing it to spread risk across a larger base. Significant partnerships with mortgage lenders, as well as a focus on expanding its market share in the PMI industry, contribute positively to its earnings. Furthermore, NMI Holdings' commitment to advanced technology and data analytics enhances its underwriting processes and risk assessment, improving profitability.

NMI Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong fundamentals: steady revenue growth (2020–2025) with exceptional and consistent net margins, improving leverage (debt-to-equity down to ~0.16), and solid operating/FCF generation with high cash conversion. Main offset is data reliability/consistency concerns in 2025 balance sheet and cash-flow coverage fields, which reduces confidence in trend comparability.

Income Statement

Revenue has grown steadily from 2020 to 2025 (annual revenue up from ~$436M to ~$706M), with especially strong growth in 2025. Profitability is a clear strength: net profit margins are consistently very high (roughly ~48% to ~56%) and operating profitability remains strong across the period. A watch-out is that margins have been fairly stable rather than expanding recently, and the 2025 revenue growth rate appears unusually elevated versus prior years, which could indicate a one-off boost.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is conservative and improving: debt-to-equity trends down from ~0.29 (2020) to ~0.16 (2025), while equity has grown materially over time. This points to strengthening balance sheet flexibility and lower financial risk. The main weakness is data consistency: 2025 total assets are shown as an extreme outlier versus prior years and return on equity is listed as 0.0 for 2025, which reduces confidence in period-to-period comparability.

Cash Flow

Cash generation looks solid and generally improves over time: operating cash flow rises from ~$253M (2020) to ~$419M (2025), and free cash flow is consistently close to net income (roughly ~95% to ~100%), suggesting good earnings quality. Free cash flow growth is positive in most years, though it dipped in 2022 and then accelerated sharply in 2025. A key concern is coverage data quality: operating cash flow coverage is extremely high in some years, 0.0 in 2020, and near-zero in 2025, implying potential metric instability or definitional differences.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	692.21M	705.58M	650.97M	579.00M	524.46M	485.64M
Gross Profit	637.91M	647.93M	618.70M	555.61M	526.96M	470.82M
EBITDA	529.50M	528.28M	512.24M	456.46M	421.34M	339.75M
Net Income	380.88M	388.93M	360.11M	322.11M	292.90M	231.13M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.73B	3.84T	3.35B	2.94B	2.52B	2.45B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	505.83M	43.94B	54.22M	95.35M	42.25M	73.48M
Total Debt	416.55M	417.03M	415.15M	397.60M	396.05M	394.62M
Total Liabilities	1.21B	1.25T	1.13B	1.01B	902.30M	884.79M
Stockholders Equity	2.51B	2.59B	2.22B	1.93B	1.61B	1.57B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	386.85M	419.30M	386.70M	333.31M	302.82M	313.48M
Operating Cash Flow	393.38M	419.30M	393.60M	342.68M	313.39M	325.72M
Investing Cash Flow	-284.94M	-316.47M	-339.29M	-200.00M	-289.79M	-374.18M
Financing Cash Flow	-111.32M	-113.20M	-96.70M	-90.42M	-55.83M	-1.83M

NMI Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 40.92
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NMIH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 40.92 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 38.94, above the 50-day MA of 39.48, and above the 200-day MA of 38.68, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.38 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.10 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 62.04 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NMIH.

NMI Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NMIH	82 Outperform	$3.15B	8.33	16.17%	―	8.86%	9.51%
ACT	82 Outperform	$6.29B	9.64	12.75%	2.02%	2.40%	1.18%
ESNT	81 Outperform	$6.33B	9.54	12.35%	1.88%	2.78%	-0.50%
AGO	70 Outperform	$4.00B	10.63	7.06%	1.50%	7.56%	-38.23%
MTG	68 Neutral	$6.12B	8.71	―	1.89%	2.20%	9.90%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
RDN	63 Neutral	$4.64B	8.55	12.56%	2.78%	-3.68%	3.65%

NMI Holdings Corporate Events

NMI Holdings Adds Independent Director to Strengthen Governance

On February 12, 2026, NMI Holdings expanded its board to ten members and appointed Renu Agrawal as an independent director, also naming her to the Audit and Risk Committees. Agrawal will receive cash and equity retainers under the company’s standard non-employee director compensation program, and she is subject to stock ownership guidelines and a standard indemnification agreement.

Agrawal brings extensive board and executive experience in banking, insurance, and financial services, including senior leadership roles at Wells Fargo and directorships at multiple financial and insurance-related firms. Her appointment is expected to strengthen National MI’s governance and risk oversight as it pursues continued value creation for shareholders in the mortgage insurance sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (NMIH) stock is a Buy with a $48.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NMI Holdings stock, see the NMIH Stock Forecast page.