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NMI Holdings (NMIH)
NASDAQ:NMIH
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NMI Holdings
(NASDAQ:NMIH)
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Rating:82Outperform
Price Target:
$44.00
▲(20.05% Upside)
NMI Holdings receives a strong overall score driven by robust financial performance and positive earnings call insights. The company's efficient operations and attractive valuation further support its stability and growth potential. Technical analysis presents a neutral outlook, slightly tempering the overall score.
Positive Factors
Strong Revenue Growth
NMI Holdings' record revenue growth indicates strong market demand and effective business strategies, supporting long-term financial stability and expansion.
Efficient Cost Management
Efficient cost management and low expense ratios enhance profitability, allowing NMI Holdings to reinvest in growth opportunities and maintain competitive pricing.
Robust Balance Sheet
A robust balance sheet with low leverage provides financial flexibility and resilience, enabling NMI Holdings to withstand economic fluctuations and pursue strategic investments.
Negative Factors
Increase in Claims Expense
Rising claims expenses can pressure margins and profitability, potentially impacting NMI Holdings' financial performance if the trend continues.
Potential Macro Risks
Macro risks such as labor market strain and consumer confidence issues could affect the housing market, impacting NMI Holdings' revenue and growth prospects.
Geographic Market Pressures
Geographic market pressures, with declining house price appreciation, may affect demand for mortgage insurance, challenging NMI Holdings' growth in affected regions.
NMI Holdings (NMIH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.86B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)395.47K
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.5
Beta (1Y)0.62
Revenue Growth8.86%
EPS Growth9.51%
CountryUS
Employees230
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.21
Shares Outstanding77,574,120
10 Day Avg. Volume457,508
30 Day Avg. Volume395,472
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.53
Price to Book (P/B)1.32
Price to Sales (P/S)4.51
P/FCF Ratio7.59
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.20
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.97
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.20
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.53
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$45.00Price Target Upside22.78% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)4.91
Revenue Forecast (FY)$602.13M
NMI Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionNMI Holdings, Inc. (NMIH) is a leading provider of mortgage insurance and risk management solutions in the United States. The company operates in the financial services sector, primarily focusing on the provision of private mortgage insurance (PMI) to lenders and investors, facilitating home ownership for borrowers with lower down payments. NMIH's core products include mortgage insurance policies that protect lenders against defaults on residential mortgage loans, as well as risk management services tailored to the needs of the housing finance market.
How the Company Makes MoneyNMI Holdings generates revenue primarily through the issuance of private mortgage insurance policies. The company earns premium income from mortgage insurers, which is calculated based on the amount of coverage provided and the risk associated with the underlying mortgage loans. Additionally, NMIH collects fees for its risk management services, which may include consulting and analytics services to help lenders manage their mortgage portfolios effectively. The company's revenue is also supported by its strategic partnerships with various lending institutions, which ensure a steady flow of business. Factors contributing to its earnings include the overall health of the housing market, interest rates, and the demand for mortgage financing.
NMI Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Nov 04, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 17, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call for National MI in the third quarter of 2025 reflected strong financial performance and growth, with record revenues and a robust insured portfolio. However, challenges such as increased claims expenses and potential macroeconomic risks were noted. Overall, the positive aspects of strong operational performance and efficient cost management outweighed the challenges discussed.Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Revenue and Growth
Total revenue for the third quarter was a record $178.7 million, with GAAP net income reaching $96 million or $1.22 per diluted share, and a 15.6% return on equity.
Strong Primary Insurance-in-Force
Primary insurance-in-force grew to a record $218.4 billion, up 2% from the second quarter and 5% compared to the third quarter of 2024.
High Persistency Rate
12-month persistency was 83.9% in the third quarter compared to 84.1% in the second quarter, indicating strong retention in the insured portfolio.
Efficient Cost Management
Underwriting and operating expenses were $29.2 million, with a record low expense ratio of 19.3%, demonstrating significant operating leverage and cost management efficiency.
Share Repurchase Program
Repurchased $24.6 million of common stock, retiring 628,000 shares at an average price of $39.13, with $256 million of repurchase capacity remaining.
Negative Updates
Increase in Claims Expense
Claims expense in the third quarter was $18.6 million compared to $13.4 million in the second quarter, reflecting normal seasonal activity and the continued growth and seasoning of the portfolio.
Potential Macro Risks
While the macro environment and housing market remain resilient, there are potential risks on the horizon, including labor market strain and consumer confidence issues.
Geographic Market Pressures
Certain geographies, such as Florida, Texas, the Sunbelt, and Mountain West, are experiencing a declining pace of house price appreciation or a turn in prices with inventory building.
Company Guidance
During the third quarter of 2025, NMI Holdings reported strong operational and financial performance, marked by a record $178.7 million in total revenue and a GAAP net income of $96 million, translating to $1.22 per diluted share. The company achieved a 15.6% return on equity and noted a $13 billion volume of new insurance written (NIW), bringing its primary insurance-in-force to an all-time high of $218.4 billion, a 5% increase from the prior year. Persistency was recorded at 83.9%, with net premiums earned reaching a record $151.3 million. Investment income rose to $26.8 million, reflecting positive market dynamics. The firm maintained an expense ratio of 19.3%, underscoring operational efficiency. NMI also reported a slight increase in defaults to 7,093, with a default rate of 1.05%. The company continued its strategic share repurchase program, retiring 628,000 shares, and ended the quarter with $3.1 billion in total cash and investments.NMI Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
NMI Holdings demonstrates strong financial performance with high profitability and efficient operations. The income statement shows robust margins and consistent revenue growth. The balance sheet is solid with low leverage and strong equity support, while cash flows indicate effective cash management.Income Statement
NMI Holdings demonstrates strong profitability with a high gross profit margin of 97.36% and a robust net profit margin of 55.57% for TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). The company shows consistent revenue growth, with a TTM growth rate of 1.75%. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also strong at 75.57% and 76.44%, respectively, indicating efficient operations. Overall, the income statement reflects a stable and profitable business model with positive growth trends.88
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet of NMI Holdings is solid, with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.17, indicating prudent financial leverage. The return on equity (ROE) is healthy at 16.50%, showcasing effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio stands at 67.39%, reflecting a strong equity base relative to total assets. The company maintains a stable financial position with manageable debt levels and strong equity support.82
Very Positive
Cash Flow
NMI Holdings exhibits strong cash flow performance with a free cash flow growth rate of 3.25% in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.22, indicating efficient cash generation relative to earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio is slightly above 1, suggesting that the company effectively converts its earnings into cash. Overall, the cash flow statement reflects a healthy cash generation capability, supporting ongoing operations and potential growth investments.85
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 692.21M | 650.97M | 579.00M | 524.46M | 485.64M | 436.19M |
| Gross Profit | 477.94M | 618.70M | 555.61M | 526.96M | 470.82M | 374.10M |
| EBITDA | 526.40M | 512.24M | 456.46M | 421.34M | 339.75M | 252.42M |
| Net Income | 380.88M | 360.11M | 322.11M | 292.90M | 231.13M | 171.57M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.73B | 3.35B | 2.94B | 2.52B | 2.45B | 2.17B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 130.44M | 54.22M | 95.35M | 42.25M | 73.48M | 121.38M |
| Total Debt | 416.55M | 415.15M | 397.60M | 396.05M | 394.62M | 393.30M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.21B | 1.13B | 1.01B | 902.30M | 884.79M | 797.08M |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.51B | 2.22B | 1.93B | 1.61B | 1.57B | 1.37B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 391.98M | 386.70M | 333.31M | 302.82M | 313.48M | 240.44M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 393.38M | 393.60M | 342.68M | 313.39M | 325.72M | 252.60M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -284.94M | -339.29M | -200.00M | -289.79M | -374.18M | -629.55M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -111.32M | -96.70M | -90.42M | -55.83M | -1.83M | 462.80M |
NMI Holdings Technical Analysis
Neutral
36.65
Price Trends
37.66
Negative
38.55
Negative
37.61
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.20
Negative
49.07
Neutral
62.22
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NMIH, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 36.65 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 36.33, below the 50-day MA of 37.66, and below the 200-day MA of 37.61, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.20 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.07 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 62.22 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for NMIH.
NMI Holdings Risk Analysis
NMI Holdings disclosed 44 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. NMI Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
NMI Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
82 Outperform | $2.86B | 7.54 | 16.17% | ― | 8.86% | 9.51% | |
80 Outperform | $5.30B | 8.26 | 12.75% | 2.14% | 2.40% | 1.18% | |
78 Outperform | $6.28B | 9.02 | 14.40% | 2.00% | 2.20% | 9.90% | |
78 Outperform | $4.61B | 8.49 | 12.56% | 2.98% | -3.68% | 3.65% | |
73 Outperform | $6.10B | 9.02 | 12.94% | 1.99% | 4.79% | -0.76% | |
71 Outperform | $3.90B | 8.92 | 8.38% | 1.62% | 5.89% | -27.45% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
* Financial Sector Average
NMIH
NMI Holdings
36.65
-0.45
-1.21%
AGO
Assured Guaranty
86.88
0.69
0.80%
MTG
MGIC Investment
28.03
4.08
17.04%
RDN
Radian Group
34.87
2.37
7.29%
ESNT
Essent Group
61.11
6.98
12.89%
ACT
Enact Holdings
37.00
3.99
12.09%
NMI Holdings Corporate Events
NMI Holdings Reports Steady Q3 2025 Financial Results
Nov 5, 2025
NMI Holdings, Inc., operating under the brand National MI, is a private mortgage insurance company based in the United States, providing insurance solutions to protect lenders and investors from borrower defaults, primarily in the housing and mortgage sector.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.