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NMI Holdings
(NASDAQ:NMIH)
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Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
$43.00
▲(7.53% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/16/26
The score is driven primarily by strong fundamentals (high profitability, growing revenue, and solid cash generation) and an attractive low P/E valuation. This is tempered by weak technical momentum (below key moving averages with negative MACD) and earnings-call risks tied to credit normalization (higher defaults/claims and modestly lower persistency), with corporate events providing only modest incremental support.
Positive Factors
Profitability & Returns
NMI demonstrates consistently strong operating and net margins with adjusted net income of $99.4M and an adjusted ROE of 15.2%. Sustainable profitability and free cash flow alignment provide durable earnings, support capital returns, and fund disciplined underwriting and risk management over time.
Negative Factors
Rising Defaults
Defaults rising to 8,044 and a 1.17% default rate indicate credit normalization as post‑COVID vintages season. Higher default frequency raises expected claims and reserve volatility, which can erode underwriting margins and require pricing or reinsurance adjustments over multiple quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Profitability & Returns
NMI demonstrates consistently strong operating and net margins with adjusted net income of $99.4M and an adjusted ROE of 15.2%. Sustainable profitability and free cash flow alignment provide durable earnings, support capital returns, and fund disciplined underwriting and risk management over time.
Read all positive factors
NMI Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Primary Insurance In-Force
Total outstanding mortgage insurance coverage the company currently guarantees. Size and trends in in-force reflect the scale of future premium income and the company’s exposure to borrower defaults—growing in-force suggests expansion, while declines signal shrinking business or tighter underwriting.
Total outstanding mortgage insurance coverage the company currently guarantees. Size and trends in in-force reflect the scale of future premium income and the company’s exposure to borrower defaults—growing in-force suggests expansion, while declines signal shrinking business or tighter underwriting.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyNMI Holdings (NMIH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.12B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)558.67K
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.3
Beta (1Y)0.54
Revenue Growth7.29%
EPS Growth6.16%
CountryUS
Employees230
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)5.00
Shares Outstanding75,971,890
10 Day Avg. Volume550,952
30 Day Avg. Volume558,673
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.73
Price to Book (P/B)1.22
Price to Sales (P/S)4.49
P/FCF Ratio7.68
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.03
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.50
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.02
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.05
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$44.75Price Target Upside11.90% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)5.16
Revenue Forecast (FY)$629.77M
NMI Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
NMI Holdings, Inc. is a company operating within the United States that offers private mortgage guaranty insurance. In addition to its core insurance products, the firm also delivers outsourced loan assessment services, specifically catering to mo...
How the Company Makes Money
NMIH primarily makes money through its private mortgage insurance business. Its core revenue stream is insurance premiums earned on policies written to cover a portion of a lender’s or investor’s credit losses if a borrower defaults on an insured ...
NMI Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong operating and financial performance — record revenue, robust NIW ($12.3B), record insurance-in-force ($222.3B), solid adjusted net income ($99.4M) and disciplined capital management including buybacks and meaningful PMIERs excess. These positives were balanced against emerging normalization in credit metrics: higher defaults and a modest increase in reserves per default driven by larger loan sizes and post‑COVID vintages, a small dip in persistency, and macro risks (rate volatility and geopolitical uncertainty) that could temper refinance volumes and future credit trends. On balance, management presented the quarter as a continuation of outperformance while signaling prudent risk management as normalization unfolds.Positive Updates
Record Top Line and Revenue Growth
Total revenue was a record $183.5 million in Q1 2026, up 2% sequentially and up 6% year-over-year.
Negative Updates
Rising Defaults and Default Rate
Defaults increased to 8,044 at March 31 (from 7,661 at December 31), and the reported default rate was 1.17% at quarter end, indicating modest upward credit pressure.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Top Line and Revenue Growth
Total revenue was a record $183.5 million in Q1 2026, up 2% sequentially and up 6% year-over-year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management did not give formal forward‑looking guidance but offered clear directional guidance: they expect 2026 volume to be broadly similar to 2025 and to continue disciplined pricing, risk selection and reinsurance while pursuing continued growth in their high‑quality insured portfolio (Q1 NIW $12.3B; primary insurance‑in‑force $222.3B); they highlighted a robust earnings and capital position (Q1 total revenue $183.5M; adjusted net income $99.4M; adj. EPS $1.28; adj. ROE 15.2%; net premiums earned $154.8M; net yield 28 bps; core yield 34 bps; investment income $28.6M), disciplined cost management (Q1 expenses $30.6M; expense ratio 19.8%; expect modest absolute expense increases over time), strong credit metrics (defaults 8,044; default rate 1.17%; claims expense $20.7M; reserve per new notice $14.2k), ongoing capital return (Q1 buybacks $27.7M; $198M repurchase capacity remaining) and solid regulatory capital excess (PMIERs available assets $3.6B; required $2.2B; excess $1.5B), while planning for possible macro stress and aiming for continued outperformance.NMI Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
79
Positive
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 716.41M | 705.58M | 650.97M | 579.00M | 524.46M | 485.64M |
| Gross Profit | 642.30M | 647.93M | 618.70M | 555.61M | 526.96M | 470.82M |
| EBITDA | 532.71M | 539.54M | 512.24M | 456.46M | 421.34M | 339.75M |
| Net Income | 385.70M | 388.93M | 360.11M | 322.11M | 292.90M | 231.13M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.91T | 3.84B | 3.35B | 2.94B | 2.52B | 2.45B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 469.85M | 448.37M | 54.22M | 95.35M | 42.25M | 2.16B |
| Total Debt | 417.52M | 417.03M | 415.15M | 397.60M | 396.05M | 394.62M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.28T | 1.25B | 1.13B | 1.01B | 902.30M | 884.79M |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.63T | 2.59B | 2.22B | 1.93B | 1.61B | 1.57B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 428.06M | 412.52M | 386.70M | 333.31M | 302.82M | 313.48M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 434.24M | 419.30M | 393.60M | 342.68M | 313.39M | 325.72M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -316.72M | -316.47M | -339.29M | -200.00M | -289.79M | -374.18M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -121.05M | -113.20M | -96.70M | -90.42M | -55.83M | -1.83M |
NMI Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
39.99
Price Trends
38.15
Positive
38.39
Positive
38.30
Positive
Market Momentum
0.54
Negative
71.61
Negative
88.92
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NMIH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 39.99 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 37.79, above the 50-day MA of 38.15, and above the 200-day MA of 38.30, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.54 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 71.61 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.92 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NMIH.
NMI Holdings Risk Analysis
NMI Holdings disclosed 4 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. NMI Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
NMI Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
85 Outperform | $5.92B | 9.14 | 12.01% | 1.88% | 1.34% | 2.64% | |
80 Outperform | $6.38B | 9.91 | 12.74% | 2.02% | 1.98% | 3.55% | |
76 Outperform | $3.12B | 8.29 | 0.06% | ― | 7.29% | 6.16% | |
76 Outperform | $5.96B | 8.97 | 14.00% | 1.89% | -1.24% | 4.62% | |
72 Outperform | $5.01B | 9.16 | 12.01% | 2.78% | 7.69% | 3.24% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
65 Neutral | $3.55B | 9.36 | 7.38% | 1.50% | 2.70% | 3.06% |
* Financial Sector Average
NMIH
NMI Holdings
41.09
-1.79
-4.17%
AGO
Assured Guaranty
80.16
-4.98
-5.85%
MTG
MGIC Investment
28.20
0.62
2.26%
RDN
Radian Group
37.67
2.18
6.15%
ESNT
Essent Group
64.28
4.18
6.96%
ACT
Enact Holdings
45.71
8.85
24.01%
NMI Holdings Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
NMI Holdings Shareholders Back Board, Pay and Auditor
Positive
May 15, 2026
NMI Holdings held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders on May 14, 2026, with 90.64% of the 76.2 million eligible shares represented, and shareholders elected all nominated directors, including Executive Chairman Bradley M. Shuster and Chief Executiv...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.