NMI Holdings (NMIH)
NASDAQ:NMIH
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NMI Holdings
(NASDAQ:NMIH)
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Rating:82Outperform
Price Target:
$47.00
▲(25.20% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/13/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (high profitability, improving leverage, and solid cash generation) and supportive earnings-call takeaways (record results, strong capital/reinsurance position, and ongoing buybacks). Technicals add moderate momentum support, while valuation is favorable due to the low P/E. The main risk tempering the score is rising defaults/claims and persistency normalization, alongside some inconsistencies in the provided 2025 financial-statement fields.
Positive Factors
High and Stable Profitability
Consistently elevated net margins indicate durable underwriting economics and pricing power in the mortgage insurance franchise. High margins support strong internal capital generation, fund buybacks and reinvestment, and provide a buffer against rising claims or cyclical loss spikes over a multi-quarter horizon.
Negative Factors
Persistency Decline
Lower persistency reduces the average life of active policies, forcing higher new insurance written to sustain earned premium and exacerbating acquisition and onboarding costs. Over several quarters this can depress earned yields, increase turnover of higher-quality vintages, and compress long-term profitability.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High and Stable Profitability
Consistently elevated net margins indicate durable underwriting economics and pricing power in the mortgage insurance franchise. High margins support strong internal capital generation, fund buybacks and reinvestment, and provide a buffer against rising claims or cyclical loss spikes over a multi-quarter horizon.
Read all positive factors
NMI Holdings (NMIH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.85B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)462.34K
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.3
Beta (1Y)0.61
Revenue Growth8.86%
EPS Growth9.51%
CountryUS
Employees230
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.20
Shares Outstanding76,032,620
10 Day Avg. Volume491,153
30 Day Avg. Volume462,342
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.73
Price to Book (P/B)1.22
Price to Sales (P/S)4.49
P/FCF Ratio7.68
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.13
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.58
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.99
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.02
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$46.25Price Target Upside23.20% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)5.15
Revenue Forecast (FY)$630.23M
NMI Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
NMI Holdings, Inc. provides private mortgage guaranty insurance services in the United States. The company offers mortgage insurance services; and outsourced loan review services to mortgage loan originators. It serves national and regional mortga...
How the Company Makes Money
NMI Holdings generates revenue primarily through the premiums collected from its private mortgage insurance policies. The company charges lenders a premium to insure a portion of the mortgage amount, which provides coverage against borrower defaul...
NMI Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Primary Insurance In-Force
Total outstanding mortgage insurance coverage the company currently guarantees. Size and trends in in-force reflect the scale of future premium income and the company’s exposure to borrower defaults—growing in-force suggests expansion, while declines signal shrinking business or tighter underwriting.
Total outstanding mortgage insurance coverage the company currently guarantees. Size and trends in in-force reflect the scale of future premium income and the company’s exposure to borrower defaults—growing in-force suggests expansion, while declines signal shrinking business or tighter underwriting.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyNMI Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 10, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized multiple record achievements — revenue, insured in force, policies outstanding, full-year net income and EPS growth, improved book value, strong reinsurance deals, and disciplined capital returns — while acknowledging manageable portfolio seasoning effects: a modest decline in persistency, a sequential rise in defaults and claims tied to growth and seasonality, and macro/consumer risks to monitor. Management presented these headwinds as expected or contained within its risk framework and reinforced strong capital and reinsurance positions that mitigate downside risk.Positive Updates
Record Revenue and Strong Full-Year Financial Performance
Total revenue reached a record $180.7M in Q4 and $706.4M for full-year 2025, up ~9% year-over-year. GAAP net income for 2025 was a record $388.9M, up 8% versus 2024, with full-year diluted EPS of $4.92, up 11% year-over-year, and a full-year return on equity of 16.2%.
Negative Updates
Persistency Decline
Twelve-month persistency declined to 83.4% in Q4 from 83.9% in Q3, a 50 basis point sequential decrease driven by rate movement and increased refinance/purchase activity; management expects persistency to trend back toward historical norms over time.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Revenue and Strong Full-Year Financial Performance
Total revenue reached a record $180.7M in Q4 and $706.4M for full-year 2025, up ~9% year-over-year. GAAP net income for 2025 was a record $388.9M, up 8% versus 2024, with full-year diluted EPS of $4.92, up 11% year-over-year, and a full-year return on equity of 16.2%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's guidance emphasized stability and continued disciplined growth: they expect core yield to remain generally stable (Q4 core yield 34 bps; net yield 28 bps), persistency to stay well above historical norms despite Q4 12‑month persistency of 83.4% (down 50 bps Q/Q) and to trend toward historical levels over time, and they expect the private MI market to remain strong in 2026 (industry NIW ~ $310B in 2025) if rates hold. They secured quota‑share and excess‑of‑loss reinsurance providing forward‑flow coverage through 2028 at an estimated 4% pre‑tax cost of capital, plan to continue disciplined capital returns (roughly $25M/quarter buyback pace — Q4 repurchases $31M; $226M remaining capacity; $349M repurchased to date), and aim to sustain mid‑teens returns (2025 ROE 16.2%) while growing book value (book value per share $33.98; ex‑unrealized $34.58, +4% Q/Q, +16% YoY). Key balance‑sheet/operating reference points cited were $221.4B primary insurance in force (up 1.4% Q/Q, 5.4% YoY), $49B NIW in 2025 ($14.2B in Q4), year‑end available PMIERs assets $3.5B vs. required $2.1B (excess $1.4B), and Q4 financials of total revenue $180.7M, net premiums earned $152.5M, investment income $27.5M, underwriting & operating expenses $31.1M (expense ratio 20.4%), claims $21.2M, and GAAP net income $94.2M (Q4 EPS $1.20; FY GAAP net income $388.9M, EPS $4.92).NMI Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
90
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
86
Very Positive
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 705.58M | 650.97M | 579.00M | 524.46M | 485.64M |
| Gross Profit | 647.93M | 618.70M | 555.61M | 526.96M | 470.82M |
| EBITDA | 528.28M | 512.24M | 456.46M | 421.34M | 339.75M |
| Net Income | 388.93M | 360.11M | 322.11M | 292.90M | 231.13M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 3.84B | 3.35B | 2.94B | 2.52B | 2.45B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 43.94M | 54.22M | 95.35M | 42.25M | 73.48M |
| Total Debt | 417.03M | 415.15M | 397.60M | 396.05M | 394.62M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.25B | 1.13B | 1.01B | 902.30M | 884.79M |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.59B | 2.22B | 1.93B | 1.61B | 1.57B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 412.52M | 386.70M | 333.31M | 302.82M | 313.48M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 419.30M | 393.60M | 342.68M | 313.39M | 325.72M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -316.47M | -339.29M | -200.00M | -289.79M | -374.18M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -113.20M | -96.70M | -90.42M | -55.83M | -1.83M |
NMI Holdings Technical Analysis
Negative
37.54
Price Trends
38.61
Negative
38.74
Negative
38.68
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.42
Negative
44.51
Neutral
67.38
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NMIH, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 37.54 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 37.47, below the 50-day MA of 38.61, and below the 200-day MA of 38.68, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.42 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 44.51 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.38 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NMIH.
NMI Holdings Risk Analysis
NMI Holdings disclosed 44 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. NMI Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
NMI Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
82 Outperform | $2.85B | 8.30 | 15.80% | ― | 8.86% | 9.51% | |
82 Outperform | $5.85B | 8.72 | 12.83% | 2.02% | 2.40% | 1.18% | |
76 Outperform | $5.59B | 9.33 | 12.35% | 1.88% | 2.78% | -0.50% | |
70 Outperform | $4.59B | 8.52 | 12.59% | 2.78% | -3.68% | 3.65% | |
69 Neutral | $3.65B | 8.74 | 8.92% | 1.50% | 7.56% | -38.23% | |
68 Neutral | $5.70B | 8.93 | 14.33% | 1.89% | 2.20% | 9.90% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
* Financial Sector Average
NMIH
NMI Holdings
37.54
1.66
4.63%
AGO
Assured Guaranty
81.10
-1.62
-1.95%
MTG
MGIC Investment
26.52
2.72
11.42%
RDN
Radian Group
33.65
1.76
5.52%
ESNT
Essent Group
59.16
3.62
6.51%
ACT
Enact Holdings
41.35
7.14
20.86%
NMI Holdings Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
NMI Holdings Adds Independent Director to Strengthen Governance
Positive
Feb 12, 2026
On February 12, 2026, NMI Holdings expanded its board to ten members and appointed Renu Agrawal as an independent director, also naming her to the Audit and Risk Committees. Agrawal will receive cash and equity retainers under the company’s ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.