Assured Guaranty (AGO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.91B
• Dividend Yield: 1.5%
• Average Volume (3M): 337.06K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 10.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.60
• Revenue Growth: 7.56%
• EPS Growth: -38.23%
• Country: US
• Employees: 361
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Insurance - Specialty
• EPS (TTM): 2.57
• Shares Outstanding: 46,109,097
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 453,220
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 337,060
• PEG Ratio: -0.29
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.87
• Price to Sales (P/S): 5.89
• P/FCF Ratio: 102.08
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.39
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 5.72
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.30
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 8.84
• 1Y Price Target: $104.00
• Price Target Upside: 22.57% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: $92.00 ▲(8.43% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by strong profitability and a solid balance sheet, supported by an attractive P/E valuation. Recent earnings-call fundamentals and shareholder returns (buybacks) are positive, but the score is held back by weak technical momentum and risks signaled by revenue decline and cash flow conversion concerns.

Positive Factors

Strong Financial Guarantee Production

The significant increase in financial guarantee production indicates robust demand for Assured Guaranty's services, enhancing its market position and revenue potential.

Investment Portfolio Success

Successful investment strategies contribute to strong returns, supporting financial stability and enabling further growth opportunities.

Record High Adjusted Book Value Per Share

Record high book value per share reflects strong financial health and shareholder value, indicating effective management and strategic execution.

Negative Factors

Revenue Decline

A decline in revenue suggests potential challenges in market demand or competition, which could impact long-term growth prospects.

Challenges with Brightline Transportation Exposure

Operational challenges with Brightline may affect Assured Guaranty's financial performance and risk exposure, impacting future profitability.

Reduction in Short-term Investment Portfolio Earnings

A decline in short-term investment earnings could reduce overall income, affecting cash flow and financial flexibility in the long term.

Assured Guaranty Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Assured Guaranty Ltd., through its subsidiaries, provides credit protection products to public finance, infrastructure, and structured finance markets in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Insurance and Asset Management. It offers financial guaranty insurance that protects holders of debt instruments and other monetary obligations from defaults in scheduled payments. The company insures and reinsures various debt obligations, including bonds issued by the United States state governmental authorities; and notes issued to finance infrastructure projects. It also insures and reinsures various the U.S. public finance obligations, such as general obligation, tax-backed, municipal utility, transportation, healthcare, higher education, infrastructure, housing revenue, investor-owned utility, renewable energy, and other public finance bonds. Further, it is involved in insuring and reinsuring of non-U.S. public finance obligations comprising regulated utilities, infrastructure finance, sovereign and sub-sovereign, renewable energy bonds, pooled infrastructure, and other public finance obligations; and the U.S. and non-U.S. Structured finance obligations, including residential mortgage-backed securities, life insurance transactions, consumer receivables securities, pooled corporate obligations, financial products, and other structured finance securities. Additionally, the company offers specialty insurance and reinsurance that include life and aircraft residual value insurance transactions; and asset management services comprising investment advisory services, including management of collateralized loan obligations, and opportunity and liquid strategy funds. It markets its financial guaranty insurance directly to issuers and underwriters of public finance and structured finance securities, as well as to investors in such obligations. Assured Guaranty Ltd. was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Hamilton, Bermuda.

How the Company Makes Money

Assured Guaranty generates revenue primarily through the issuance of financial guaranty insurance policies, for which it charges premiums. These premiums are typically paid upfront and can be structured as one-time payments or ongoing annual fees. The company also earns investment income from its portfolio of invested premiums and reserves, which is a significant revenue stream. Additionally, Assured Guaranty may receive fees for structured finance transactions and advisory services. Strategic partnerships with municipalities, public authorities, and other financial institutions enhance its market presence and contribute to its earnings by broadening its client base and increasing the volume of insured transactions.

Assured Guaranty Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability is strong (TTM gross margin 67.41%, net margin 38.88%, EBIT/EBITDA margins ~43%) and leverage is moderate (debt-to-equity 0.30, equity ratio 46.76%). Offsetting factors include a 5.26% TTM revenue decline and weak cash conversion signals (operating cash flow to net income ratio 0.0), despite 16.67% free cash flow growth.

Income Statement

Assured Guaranty shows strong profitability with a TTM gross profit margin of 67.41% and a net profit margin of 38.88%. However, the company experienced a revenue decline of 5.26% in the TTM period, indicating potential challenges in revenue generation. Despite this, the EBIT and EBITDA margins remain robust at 43.04% and 43.52%, respectively, reflecting efficient cost management.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a healthy balance sheet with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.30, indicating moderate leverage. The return on equity (ROE) is 7.16%, showing reasonable profitability relative to shareholder equity. The equity ratio stands at 46.76%, suggesting a solid equity base relative to total assets.

Cash Flow

Assured Guaranty has shown improvement in cash flow with a 16.67% growth in free cash flow in the TTM period. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.0, indicating that the company generates sufficient cash to cover its net income. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.0, which may suggest potential issues in converting income into cash flow.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	954.00M	814.00M	1.01B	684.00M	698.00M	1.08B
Gross Profit	866.00M	820.00M	840.00M	654.00M	904.00M	865.00M
EBITDA	617.00M	579.00M	758.00M	229.00M	564.00M	498.00M
Net Income	402.00M	376.00M	739.00M	124.00M	389.00M	362.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	12.10B	11.90B	12.54B	16.84B	18.21B	15.33B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.49B	2.46B	8.06B	8.04B	9.55B	9.79B
Total Debt	1.70B	1.70B	1.69B	1.68B	1.67B	1.22B
Total Liabilities	6.36B	6.35B	6.77B	11.55B	11.71B	8.63B
Stockholders Equity	5.66B	5.50B	5.71B	5.06B	6.29B	6.64B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	266.00M	47.00M	461.00M	-2.45B	-1.94B	-853.00M
Operating Cash Flow	266.00M	47.00M	461.00M	-2.48B	-1.94B	-853.00M
Investing Cash Flow	514.00M	780.00M	286.00M	1.74B	23.00M	788.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-791.00M	-983.00M	-670.00M	612.00M	1.96B	183.00M

Assured Guaranty Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 84.85
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AGO, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 84.85 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 86.32, below the 50-day MA of 88.48, and above the 200-day MA of 84.70, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.36 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.11 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 61.96 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AGO.

Assured Guaranty Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ACT	82 Outperform	$5.74B	9.22	12.75%	2.02%	2.40%	1.18%
ESNT	81 Outperform	$6.08B	9.24	12.35%	1.88%	2.78%	-0.50%
NMIH	79 Outperform	$2.98B	8.09	16.17%	―	8.86%	9.51%
MTG	76 Outperform	$6.02B	8.68	14.40%	1.89%	2.20%	9.90%
RDN	72 Outperform	$4.46B	8.28	12.56%	2.78%	-3.68%	3.65%
AGO	70 Outperform	$3.91B	10.44	7.06%	1.50%	7.56%	-38.23%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%

Assured Guaranty Corporate Events

Assured Guaranty Enters Annuity Reinsurance Market with Acquisition

On January 21, 2026, Assured Guaranty UK Holdings, a wholly owned subsidiary of Assured Guaranty Ltd., closed the approximately $158 million cash acquisition of Warwick Company (UK) Limited, the ultimate parent of Bermuda-based life and annuity reinsurer Warwick Re Limited, after receiving required regulatory clearance from the Bermuda Monetary Authority. The transaction, which includes Warwick Re’s balance sheet, infrastructure, staff and related subsidiaries, immediately positions Assured Guaranty in the annuity reinsurance market and has led to the rebranding of Warwick Re as Assured Life Reinsurance Ltd., which will focus on fixed-term annuities and pension risk transfer annuities, supported in part by guarantees from AA-rated affiliate Assured Guaranty Re Overseas Ltd., thereby broadening the group’s product set and creating a dedicated platform for growth in annuity reinsurance under the leadership of long-time executive Dan Bevill.

The most recent analyst rating on (AGO) stock is a Buy with a $108.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Assured Guaranty stock, see the AGO Stock Forecast page.

Assured Guaranty Releases September 2025 Financial Supplement

On November 7, 2025, Assured Guaranty Ltd. announced the availability of its September 30, 2025, Financial Supplement and Fixed Income Investor Presentation on its website. This release provides stakeholders with updated financial information and insights into the company’s performance, potentially impacting investor perceptions and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (AGO) stock is a Buy with a $89.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Assured Guaranty stock, see the AGO Stock Forecast page.