Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO)
NYSE:AGO
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Assured Guaranty
(NYSE:AGO)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$94.00
▲(14.69% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:02/28/26
AGO scores solidly due to strong profitability and balance-sheet resilience, supported by an undemanding valuation (low P/E). The score is held back by historically volatile cash flow and uneven operating trends, alongside neutral-to-soft technical momentum and some ongoing credit/liquidity and capital-allocation risks highlighted on the earnings call.
Positive Factors
Market leadership in municipal insurance
A dominant 58% share of new-issue municipal insured par and >$25B wrapped provides durable competitive scale. This market leadership secures privileged deal flow, distribution advantages and pricing power, supporting steadier PVP generation and underwriting volume over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Volatile operating cash generation
Historic swings from deeply negative OCF to a large 2025 inflow indicate inconsistent cash conversion. That variability undermines predictability for underwriting capital, buybacks and dividend policy, complicates multiyear planning and increases reliance on timing-sensitive investment and financing decisions.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Market leadership in municipal insurance
A dominant 58% share of new-issue municipal insured par and >$25B wrapped provides durable competitive scale. This market leadership secures privileged deal flow, distribution advantages and pricing power, supporting steadier PVP generation and underwriting volume over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Assured Guaranty (AGO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.68B
Dividend Yield1.5%
Average Volume (3M)337.06K
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.7
Beta (1Y)0.61
Revenue Growth7.56%
EPS Growth-38.23%
CountryUS
Employees361
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.32
Shares Outstanding44,948,770
10 Day Avg. Volume453,220
30 Day Avg. Volume337,060
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.19
Price to Book (P/B)0.78
Price to Sales (P/S)5.58
P/FCF Ratio16.97
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.36
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.93
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.30
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.66
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$106.50Price Target Upside29.94% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)6.85
Revenue Forecast (FY)$827.21M
Assured Guaranty Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Assured Guaranty Ltd., through its subsidiaries, provides credit protection products to public finance, infrastructure, and structured finance markets in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Insurance and As...
How the Company Makes Money
Assured Guaranty generates revenue primarily through the issuance of financial guaranty insurance policies, for which it charges premiums. These premiums are typically paid upfront and can be structured as one-time payments or ongoing annual fees....
Assured Guaranty Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized multiple material accomplishments—record per-share metrics, strong adjusted operating income growth (Q4 per-share +83%, full-year per-share +28%), market leadership in new-issue municipal insurance (58% market share), a tripling of secondary market activity, solid alternative investment performance (full-year pretax alternatives +33%), completion of a strategic acquisition (Assured Life Re), and $500 million of share repurchases. Offsetting these positives are mix-driven limits on PVP and premium per par due to fewer large BBB deals, outstanding UK water (Thames) and other stressed credits (e.g., Brightline) that remain unresolved risks, modest holding company liquidity (~$130M), and potential tradeoffs between buybacks and capital deployment into the new annuity reinsurance platform. Overall, the company portrayed a strong operational and financial year with manageable but notable credit and capital-allocation risks.Positive Updates
Record Per-Share and Equity Metrics
Reached new per-share highs at year-end 2025: adjusted book value $186.43, adjusted operating shareholders' equity $126.78, and shareholders' equity $125.32.
Negative Updates
PVP Impacted by Business Mix Shift
PVP was constrained by the mix of business in 2025 — fewer large BBB-category transactions versus 2024 — meaning insured par skewed toward higher-rated credits that produce less premium per dollar of par and lower capital charges.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Per-Share and Equity Metrics
Reached new per-share highs at year-end 2025: adjusted book value $186.43, adjusted operating shareholders' equity $126.78, and shareholders' equity $125.32.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that Assured Guaranty is well positioned for growth in 2026, citing a robust transaction pipeline and an expectation of strong results across all three financial‑guarantee product lines, with several large transactions already closed in early 2026; they also launched the Assured Life Re annuity‑reinsurance platform (Warwick Re acquisition in Jan‑2026) and expect to deploy excess capital to write substantial new business there. Key metrics cited to support the outlook included 2025 PVP of $286 million (U.S. public finance $206M; non‑U.S. public finance + global structured finance $80M, comprised of $37M non‑U.S. and $43M structured), more than $27 billion of municipal par guaranteed (+16% YoY), over $25 billion of new‑issue par wrapped (58% of new‑issue insured par sold), >900 new‑issue deals (+15% YoY), secondary market insured par of ~$2 billion (+~240% YoY, generating $44M of PVP), alternative investments fair value >$1 billion with an inception‑to‑date IRR of ~13%, and prior capital actions that included $500M of 2025 share repurchases (5.8M shares, ~12% of 12/31/24 outstanding at an average $85.92), $69M of dividends in 2025 and a 12% increase in the quarterly dividend to $0.38; management noted remaining repurchase authorization of $204M and holding‑company liquidity of ~ $130M (≈$48M at AGL), and said they will provide an update on Assured Life Re on the Q1 call.Assured Guaranty Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
76
Positive
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 788.00M | 814.00M | 1.01B | 684.00M | 698.00M |
| Gross Profit | 732.00M | 820.00M | 840.00M | 654.00M | 904.00M |
| EBITDA | 751.00M | 579.00M | 758.00M | 229.00M | 564.00M |
| Net Income | 503.00M | 376.00M | 739.00M | 124.00M | 389.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 12.18B | 11.90B | 12.54B | 16.84B | 18.21B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 6.76B | 2.46B | 8.06B | 8.04B | 9.55B |
| Total Debt | 1.70B | 1.70B | 1.69B | 6.99B | 1.67B |
| Total Liabilities | 6.39B | 6.35B | 6.77B | 11.55B | 11.71B |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.66B | 5.50B | 5.71B | 5.06B | 6.29B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 259.00M | 47.00M | 461.00M | -2.45B | -1.94B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 259.00M | 47.00M | 461.00M | -2.48B | -1.94B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 641.00M | 780.00M | 286.00M | 1.74B | 23.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -616.00M | -983.00M | -670.00M | 612.00M | 1.96B |
Assured Guaranty Technical Analysis
Negative
81.96
Price Trends
84.29
Negative
86.22
Negative
84.27
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.60
Negative
46.24
Neutral
74.41
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AGO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 81.96 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 81.83, below the 50-day MA of 84.29, and below the 200-day MA of 84.27, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.60 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.24 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.41 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AGO.
Assured Guaranty Risk Analysis
Assured Guaranty disclosed 58 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Assured Guaranty reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Assured Guaranty Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
82 Outperform | $2.94B | 8.14 | 15.80% | ― | 8.86% | 9.51% | |
82 Outperform | $5.92B | 8.72 | 12.83% | 2.02% | 2.40% | 1.18% | |
76 Outperform | $5.72B | 9.33 | 12.35% | 1.88% | 2.78% | -0.50% | |
70 Outperform | $4.66B | 8.52 | 12.59% | 2.78% | -3.68% | 3.65% | |
69 Neutral | $3.68B | 8.74 | 8.92% | 1.50% | 7.56% | -38.23% | |
68 Neutral | $5.85B | 8.93 | 14.33% | 1.89% | 2.20% | 9.90% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
* Financial Sector Average
AGO
Assured Guaranty
81.96
1.29
1.60%
MTG
MGIC Investment
27.20
3.42
14.37%
RDN
Radian Group
34.17
2.47
7.81%
ESNT
Essent Group
60.51
5.93
10.86%
NMIH
NMI Holdings
38.61
4.26
12.40%
ACT
Enact Holdings
41.93
7.11
20.42%
Assured Guaranty Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Assured Guaranty Posts 2025 Financial Supplement and Audit
Positive
Feb 27, 2026
On February 27, 2026, Assured Guaranty Ltd. announced that it had posted Assured Guaranty Inc.’s December 31, 2025 financial supplement and a fixed income investor presentation for the same period on its investor relations website, providing...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Assured Guaranty Enters Annuity Reinsurance Market with Acquisition
Positive
Jan 21, 2026
On January 21, 2026, Assured Guaranty UK Holdings, a wholly owned subsidiary of Assured Guaranty Ltd., closed the approximately $158 million cash acquisition of Warwick Company (UK) Limited, the ultimate parent of Bermuda-based life and annuity re...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.