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Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO)
NYSE:AGO
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Assured Guaranty
(NYSE:AGO)
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Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$97.00
▲(7.93% Upside)
Assured Guaranty's strong financial performance, positive technical indicators, and favorable earnings call contribute to a solid overall stock score. The company's profitability and efficient cost management are significant strengths, while the positive market momentum and reasonable valuation further support the stock's attractiveness. Challenges in revenue growth and cash flow conversion are areas to watch.
Positive Factors
Strong Financial Guarantee Production
The significant increase in financial guarantee production indicates robust demand for Assured Guaranty's services, enhancing its market position and revenue potential.
Investment Portfolio Success
Successful investment strategies contribute to strong returns, supporting financial stability and enabling further growth opportunities.
Record High Adjusted Book Value Per Share
Record high book value per share reflects strong financial health and shareholder value, indicating effective management and strategic execution.
Negative Factors
Revenue Decline
A decline in revenue suggests potential challenges in market demand or competition, which could impact long-term growth prospects.
Challenges with Brightline Transportation Exposure
Operational challenges with Brightline may affect Assured Guaranty's financial performance and risk exposure, impacting future profitability.
Reduction in Short-term Investment Portfolio Earnings
A decline in short-term investment earnings could reduce overall income, affecting cash flow and financial flexibility in the long term.
Assured Guaranty (AGO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.08B
Dividend Yield1.53%
Average Volume (3M)307.31K
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.8
Beta (1Y)0.59
Revenue Growth7.56%
EPS Growth-38.23%
CountryUS
Employees361
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.57
Shares Outstanding46,109,097
10 Day Avg. Volume213,393
30 Day Avg. Volume307,314
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.29
Price to Book (P/B)0.87
Price to Sales (P/S)5.89
P/FCF Ratio102.08
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.47
Enterprise Value/Revenue6.28
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.92
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.72
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$104.00Price Target Upside15.72% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)7.8
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.01B
Assured Guaranty Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionAssured Guaranty Ltd. is a global financial guaranty insurance company that provides credit enhancement products for municipal bonds, infrastructure projects, and structured finance transactions. Operating primarily in the financial services sector, Assured Guaranty offers a range of services designed to improve the creditworthiness of its clients' obligations, thereby enabling them to secure more favorable borrowing rates. The company's core products include financial guaranty insurance, which protects bondholders against the risk of default, and related services that enhance marketability and liquidity.
How the Company Makes MoneyAssured Guaranty generates revenue primarily through the issuance of financial guaranty insurance policies, for which it charges premiums. These premiums are typically paid upfront and can be structured as one-time payments or ongoing annual fees. The company also earns investment income from its portfolio of invested premiums and reserves, which is a significant revenue stream. Additionally, Assured Guaranty may receive fees for structured finance transactions and advisory services. Strategic partnerships with municipalities, public authorities, and other financial institutions enhance its market presence and contribute to its earnings by broadening its client base and increasing the volume of insured transactions.
Assured Guaranty Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Nov 06, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 26, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a strong performance in financial guarantee production and U.S. public finance, supported by record high adjusted book value per share and successful investment strategies. However, modest declines in quarterly operating income and challenges with specific investments like Brightline tempered the overall outlook.Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record High Adjusted Book Value Per Share
Adjusted book value per share reached $181.37, and adjusted operating shareholders' equity per share was $123.10, both setting new record highs by the end of the third quarter.
Increased Adjusted Operating Income
Year-to-date adjusted operating income was $6.77 per share, marking a 17% increase compared to the same period last year.
Strong Financial Guarantee Production
Third-quarter financial guarantee production was $91 million of PVP, 44% more than the same quarter last year and 42% more than the second quarter of 2025.
U.S. Public Finance Performance
U.S. public finance secondary market business insured $1.5 billion of par, 2.5 times the amount in 2024. U.S. municipal bond issuance increased by more than $50 billion in the first three quarters compared to the same period last year.
Investment Portfolio Success
Alternative investments, including those managed by Sound Point and Assured Healthcare Partners, have had an annualized internal rate of return of approximately 13% through September.
Share Repurchase Program
An additional $100 million in share repurchases was authorized, bringing the total authorization to over $330 million.
Negative Updates
Modest Decline in Third Quarter Operating Income
Adjusted operating income in the third quarter was $124 million, a slight decrease from $130 million in the third quarter of the previous year.
Challenges with Brightline Transportation Exposure
Brightline experienced growing pains related to service availability and route structure, resulting in pressure on deals.
Reduction in Short-term Investment Portfolio Earnings
Earnings from the short-term investment portfolio declined by $7 million due to lower interest rates and average balances.
Company Guidance
During the third quarter of 2025, Assured Guaranty Limited achieved significant financial milestones, reporting an adjusted book value per share of $181.37 and an adjusted operating shareholders' equity per share of $123.10, both record highs. The company generated an adjusted operating income of $6.77 per share, marking a 17% increase from the previous year. Financial guarantee production was robust, with $91 million in PVP for the quarter, a 44% increase from the prior year. Year-to-date, the company produced $194 million, with U.S. public finance contributing $152 million. The secondary market flourished, insuring $1.5 billion of par, a 2.5x increase from 2024. Global structured finance added $42 million of PVP year-to-date. The investment portfolio benefited from alternative investments, achieving an annualized internal rate of return of 13% through Sound Point and Assured Healthcare Partners. Additionally, the Board authorized the repurchase of an additional $100 million in common shares, increasing the total authorization to over $330 million.Assured Guaranty Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Assured Guaranty demonstrates strong profitability with high gross and net profit margins and efficient cost management. However, the decline in revenue and challenges in converting income into cash flow could pose risks. The company should focus on revenue growth and improving cash flow conversion to enhance financial stability.Income Statement
Assured Guaranty shows strong profitability with a TTM gross profit margin of 67.41% and a net profit margin of 38.88%. However, the company experienced a revenue decline of 5.26% in the TTM period, indicating potential challenges in revenue generation. Despite this, the EBIT and EBITDA margins remain robust at 43.04% and 43.52%, respectively, reflecting efficient cost management.72
Positive
Balance Sheet
The company maintains a healthy balance sheet with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.30, indicating moderate leverage. The return on equity (ROE) is 7.16%, showing reasonable profitability relative to shareholder equity. The equity ratio stands at 46.76%, suggesting a solid equity base relative to total assets.68
Positive
Cash Flow
Assured Guaranty has shown improvement in cash flow with a 16.67% growth in free cash flow in the TTM period. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.0, indicating that the company generates sufficient cash to cover its net income. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.0, which may suggest potential issues in converting income into cash flow.65
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 954.00M | 814.00M | 1.01B | 684.00M | 698.00M | 1.08B |
| Gross Profit | 866.00M | 820.00M | 840.00M | 654.00M | 904.00M | 865.00M |
| EBITDA | 617.00M | 579.00M | 758.00M | 229.00M | 564.00M | 498.00M |
| Net Income | 402.00M | 376.00M | 739.00M | 124.00M | 389.00M | 362.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 12.10B | 11.90B | 12.54B | 16.84B | 18.21B | 15.33B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.49B | 2.46B | 8.06B | 8.04B | 9.55B | 9.79B |
| Total Debt | 1.70B | 1.70B | 1.69B | 1.68B | 1.67B | 1.22B |
| Total Liabilities | 6.36B | 6.35B | 6.77B | 11.55B | 11.71B | 8.63B |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.66B | 5.50B | 5.71B | 5.06B | 6.29B | 6.64B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 266.00M | 47.00M | 461.00M | -2.45B | -1.94B | -853.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 266.00M | 47.00M | 461.00M | -2.48B | -1.94B | -853.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 514.00M | 780.00M | 286.00M | 1.74B | 23.00M | 788.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -791.00M | -983.00M | -670.00M | 612.00M | 1.96B | 183.00M |
Assured Guaranty Technical Analysis
Positive
89.87
Price Trends
84.73
Positive
83.56
Positive
84.05
Positive
Market Momentum
1.14
Positive
58.14
Neutral
21.66
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AGO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 89.87 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 88.68, above the 50-day MA of 84.73, and above the 200-day MA of 84.05, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.14 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 58.14 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 21.66 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AGO.
Assured Guaranty Risk Analysis
Assured Guaranty disclosed 54 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Assured Guaranty reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Assured Guaranty Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
82 Outperform | $5.45B | 8.67 | 12.75% | 2.07% | 2.40% | 1.18% | |
79 Outperform | $2.88B | 8.21 | 16.17% | ― | 8.86% | 9.51% | |
78 Outperform | $6.48B | 9.31 | 14.40% | 1.93% | 2.20% | 9.90% | |
73 Outperform | $6.10B | 9.02 | 12.35% | 1.96% | 2.78% | -0.50% | |
73 Outperform | $4.08B | 10.85 | 7.06% | 1.53% | 7.56% | -38.23% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
66 Neutral | $4.84B | 8.92 | 12.56% | 2.86% | -3.68% | 3.65% |
* Financial Sector Average
AGO
Assured Guaranty
89.87
1.24
1.40%
MTG
MGIC Investment
29.09
5.05
21.01%
RDN
Radian Group
35.82
3.27
10.05%
ESNT
Essent Group
64.48
10.44
19.32%
NMIH
NMI Holdings
39.52
1.55
4.08%
ACT
Enact Holdings
39.33
5.75
17.12%
Assured Guaranty Corporate Events
Financial Disclosures
Assured Guaranty Releases September 2025 Financial Supplement
Neutral
Nov 7, 2025
On November 7, 2025, Assured Guaranty Ltd. announced the availability of its September 30, 2025, Financial Supplement and Fixed Income Investor Presentation on its website. This release provides stakeholders with updated financial information and insights into the company’s performance, potentially impacting investor perceptions and market positioning.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.