Assured Guaranty (AGO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.87B
• Dividend Yield: 1.62%
• Average Volume (3M): 293.80K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.70
• Revenue Growth: 5.89%
• EPS Growth: -27.45%
• Country: US
• Employees: 361
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Insurance - Specialty
• EPS (TTM): 1.01
• Shares Outstanding: 47,615,220
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 226,716
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 293,804
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.62
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 6.18
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.82
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 9.33
• 1Y Price Target: $102.33
• Price Target Upside: 25.91% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: $89.00 ▲(9.51% Upside)

Assured Guaranty's strong financial performance and attractive valuation are key strengths, supported by record-high book values and market share gains. However, technical indicators suggest bearish momentum, and challenges in operating income and insurance segment losses need addressing.

Assured Guaranty Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Assured Guaranty Ltd., through its subsidiaries, provides credit protection products to public finance, infrastructure, and structured finance markets in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Insurance and Asset Management. It offers financial guaranty insurance that protects holders of debt instruments and other monetary obligations from defaults in scheduled payments. The company insures and reinsures various debt obligations, including bonds issued by the United States state governmental authorities; and notes issued to finance infrastructure projects. It also insures and reinsures various the U.S. public finance obligations, such as general obligation, tax-backed, municipal utility, transportation, healthcare, higher education, infrastructure, housing revenue, investor-owned utility, renewable energy, and other public finance bonds. Further, it is involved in insuring and reinsuring of non-U.S. public finance obligations comprising regulated utilities, infrastructure finance, sovereign and sub-sovereign, renewable energy bonds, pooled infrastructure, and other public finance obligations; and the U.S. and non-U.S. Structured finance obligations, including residential mortgage-backed securities, life insurance transactions, consumer receivables securities, pooled corporate obligations, financial products, and other structured finance securities. Additionally, the company offers specialty insurance and reinsurance that include life and aircraft residual value insurance transactions; and asset management services comprising investment advisory services, including management of collateralized loan obligations, and opportunity and liquid strategy funds. It markets its financial guaranty insurance directly to issuers and underwriters of public finance and structured finance securities, as well as to investors in such obligations. Assured Guaranty Ltd. was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Hamilton, Bermuda.

How the Company Makes Money

Assured Guaranty generates revenue primarily through the sale of financial guaranty insurance, which involves charging premiums for the credit enhancement services it provides. The company's key revenue streams include upfront premiums paid by issuers of debt at the time of the issuance, as well as ongoing renewal premiums over the life of the insured bond. Additionally, AGO earns investment income from the portfolio of investments it maintains with the premiums collected, as well as from any claim recoveries when it pays out on guaranteed bonds. The company's solid financial standing and strong credit ratings enable it to maintain a competitive edge in the market. Strategic partnerships with municipalities and other issuers also play a significant role in driving revenue by increasing the volume of insured transactions.

Assured Guaranty Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Assured Guaranty demonstrates strong profitability with high margins and significant revenue growth. However, there are concerns with operating efficiency and cash flow management, which need attention for sustained growth.

Income Statement

Assured Guaranty shows strong profitability with a high gross profit margin of 90.66% and a net profit margin of 46.02% in TTM. The revenue growth rate of 89.3% in TTM indicates a significant recovery from previous declines. However, the EBIT margin has slightly decreased from 71.13% in 2024 to 65.78% in TTM, suggesting some pressure on operating efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a healthy debt-to-equity ratio of 0.30 in TTM, indicating moderate leverage. Return on equity has improved to 8.34% in TTM, reflecting better profitability. However, the equity ratio has decreased slightly, suggesting a need for careful management of assets and liabilities.

Cash Flow

Free cash flow has grown by 9.62% in TTM, showing improvement in cash generation. The free cash flow to net income ratio remains stable at 1.0, indicating efficient cash conversion. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is zero, highlighting potential concerns in cash flow management.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.02B	814.00M	950.00M	806.00M	809.00M	982.00M
Gross Profit	922.00M	830.00M	733.00M	818.00M	904.00M	887.00M
EBITDA	674.00M	517.00M	730.00M	268.00M	470.00M	471.00M
Net Income	468.00M	376.00M	739.00M	124.00M	389.00M	362.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	12.10B	11.90B	12.54B	16.84B	18.21B	15.33B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.15B	2.46B	8.06B	8.04B	9.55B	9.79B
Total Debt	1.70B	1.70B	1.69B	1.68B	1.67B	1.22B
Total Liabilities	6.37B	6.35B	6.77B	11.55B	11.71B	8.63B
Stockholders Equity	5.63B	5.50B	5.71B	5.06B	6.29B	6.64B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	228.00M	47.00M	461.00M	-2.45B	-1.94B	-853.00M
Operating Cash Flow	228.00M	47.00M	461.00M	-2.48B	-1.94B	-853.00M
Investing Cash Flow	791.00M	780.00M	286.00M	1.74B	23.00M	788.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-810.00M	-983.00M	-670.00M	612.00M	1.96B	183.00M

Assured Guaranty Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 81.27
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AGO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 81.27 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 82.05, below the 50-day MA of 82.30, and below the 200-day MA of 84.95, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.28 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.04 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 69.26 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AGO.

Assured Guaranty Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
RDN	―	$4.52B	8.41	13.07%	3.00%	0.24%	3.14%
MTG	―	$6.31B	8.97	14.85%	1.97%	3.26%	12.70%
ESNT	―	$5.90B	8.73	12.94%	2.00%	4.79%	-0.76%
AGO	―	$3.87B	8.85	8.38%	1.62%	5.89%	-27.45%
Sector *	―	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
AMBC	―	$392.56M	-27.64	-4.09%	―	-17.06%	-118.90%
MBI	―	$338.78M	-1.46	―	―	―	66.83%

Assured Guaranty Corporate Events

Assured Guaranty Earnings Call: Record Highs Amid Challenges

The recent earnings call for Assured Guaranty presented a balanced mix of positive developments and challenges. The company reported record-high book values and strong municipal issuance, which were offset by decreased operating income and increased loss expenses. Despite these financial hurdles, strategic initiatives and positive credit ratings affirmations underscore a stable position for the company.

Assured Guaranty Reports Strong Q2 2025 Earnings

Assured Guaranty Ltd., a Bermuda-based holding company, provides credit enhancement products to the U.S. and non-U.S. public finance, infrastructure, and structured finance markets, and participates in asset management through its interest in Sound Point Capital Management.

Assured Guaranty Releases June 2025 Financial Supplement

On August 8, 2025, Assured Guaranty Ltd. released its June 30, 2025 Financial Supplement and Fixed Income Investor Presentation on its website. These materials provide insights into the company’s financial performance and strategic positioning, potentially impacting investor perceptions and stakeholder decisions.

The most recent analyst rating on (AGO) stock is a Buy with a $110.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Assured Guaranty stock, see the AGO Stock Forecast page.