Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO)
NYSE:AGO
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Assured Guaranty
(NYSE:AGO)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$80.00
▼(-5.66% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/01/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial fundamentals (strong margins and manageable leverage) and attractive valuation (low P/E). These positives are tempered by weak technicals (price below major moving averages and negative MACD) and some earnings-call risks around quarterly income softness, credit loss development, and non-recurring items despite a positive 2026 outlook and improved production.
Positive Factors
High Profitability
Sustained high net margins reflect durable underwriting discipline and investment income mix that supports cash generation. Strong profitability provides a recurring buffer to absorb credit volatility, funds reinvestment and capital returns, and improves resilience over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Weak Revenue Momentum
Persistent top-line declines reduce confidence in the sustainability of earnings despite strong margins. If premium volumes remain uneven, underwriting leverage and investment income must compensate, increasing reliance on capital actions and potentially limiting organic growth over the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High Profitability
Sustained high net margins reflect durable underwriting discipline and investment income mix that supports cash generation. Strong profitability provides a recurring buffer to absorb credit volatility, funds reinvestment and capital returns, and improves resilience over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Assured Guaranty (AGO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.35B
Dividend Yield1.5%
Average Volume (3M)337.06K
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.4
Beta (1Y)0.55
Revenue Growth2.70%
EPS Growth3.06%
CountryUS
Employees361
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)8.57
Shares Outstanding44,282,463
10 Day Avg. Volume453,220
30 Day Avg. Volume337,060
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.19
Price to Book (P/B)0.78
Price to Sales (P/S)5.58
P/FCF Ratio16.97
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.40
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.92
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.20
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.76
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$92.33Price Target Upside8.88% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)7.1
Revenue Forecast (FY)$817.24M
Assured Guaranty Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Assured Guaranty Ltd., operating through its various subsidiaries, specializes in offering credit protection solutions across the public finance, infrastructure, and structured finance sectors, serving both domestic U.S. and international clients....
How the Company Makes Money
Assured Guaranty primarily makes money by writing financial guaranty insurance and investing the premiums and capital supporting those insurance policies. Key earnings drivers include: (1) Insurance premiums: The company earns premiums for providi...
Assured Guaranty Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Overall the call presented a predominantly positive operational and strategic outlook: strong new business production (PVP nearly doubled year-over-year), sizable growth in asset management income, attractive long-term alternative investment returns (12% IRR), record per-share valuations, and a robust pipeline of large transactions. Offsetting these positives were lower adjusted operating income versus a year-ago quarter (partly due to a large one-time prior-year litigation benefit), reduced near-term buyback pace, modest economic loss development related to Brightline and PREPA, and some decline in alternative investment income driven by CLO marks. Management framed the buyback slowdown as a deliberate reallocation of capital to growth opportunities (notably annuity reinsurance) while maintaining focus on ROE and rating/regulatory considerations.Positive Updates
Strong New Business Production (PVP Nearly Doubled)
Total PVP of $73 million in Q1 2026 vs $39 million in Q1 2025 (≈+87%), with U.S. public finance leading at $48 million (a 92% year-over-year increase). Structured finance and non-U.S. public finance also contributed $17 million and $8 million of PVP, respectively.
Negative Updates
Decline in Adjusted Operating Income vs Prior Year
Adjusted operating income of $115 million ($2.50 per share) in Q1 2026 versus $162 million ($3.18 per share) in Q1 2025 — a decline of ~29% in total and ~21% on a per-share basis (prior-year quarter included an $82 million after-tax litigation benefit).
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong New Business Production (PVP Nearly Doubled)
Total PVP of $73 million in Q1 2026 vs $39 million in Q1 2025 (≈+87%), with U.S. public finance leading at $48 million (a 92% year-over-year increase). Structured finance and non-U.S. public finance also contributed $17 million and $8 million of PVP, respectively.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Assured guided that 2026 should be a strong year, reiterating expectations for continued demand and growth while remaining selective to meet ROE hurdles: Q1 adjusted operating income was $115 million ($2.50 per share) versus $162 million ($3.18) in Q1 2025, driven by $73 million of PVP (up from $39 million) — U.S. public finance $48M, non‑U.S. public $8M and global structured finance $17M — and $44M of Asset Management adjusted operating income (nearly 4x prior year); the company insured $4 billion of par in Q1 (insuring 53% of insured municipal par) and increased secondary market policies to 227 (vs. 144); deferred premium revenue held at $3.8 billion and earned premiums/credit derivative revenues were $90M (vs. $89M); alternative investments (fair value $965M) have a 12% inception‑to‑date IRR and produced $35M pretax in Q1, while the fixed‑maturity average yield was ~4.2% over the past 3 years and the other AFS/short‑term portfolio generated $82M of net investment income (vs. $75M); Q1 included $21M after‑tax carried interest and a $33M one‑time tax benefit, economic loss development was $44M (Brightline/PREPA), and capital actions include repurchasing 882,000 shares for $75M at an $85.58 average, paying $18M of dividends, cutting buybacks to a $30M target over the next three months to fund growth (holding company liquidity ~$153M, $56M at AGL), while noting Q2 pipeline commitments already include ~$636M (Houston), ~$300M (Burbank‑Glendale‑Pasadena) and ~$130M (Morgan State); the life/annuity reinsurance build‑out could require ~$50–150M of capital and target steady‑state returns of ~10–12% in 2–3 years, and adjusted operating shareholders’ equity and adjusted book value reached record per‑share levels of $128.61 and $188.74, respectively.Assured Guaranty Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
71
Positive
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 951.00M | 788.00M | 814.00M | 1.01B | 684.00M | 698.00M |
| Gross Profit | 900.00M | 732.00M | 820.00M | 840.00M | 654.00M | 904.00M |
| EBITDA | 534.00M | 751.00M | 579.00M | 758.00M | 229.00M | 564.00M |
| Net Income | 415.00M | 503.00M | 376.00M | 739.00M | 124.00M | 389.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 12.63B | 12.18B | 11.90B | 12.54B | 16.84B | 18.21B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.34B | 2.43B | 2.46B | 8.06B | 8.04B | 9.55B |
| Total Debt | 1.71B | 1.70B | 1.70B | 1.69B | 6.99B | 1.67B |
| Total Liabilities | 7.07B | 6.39B | 6.35B | 6.77B | 11.55B | 11.71B |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.54B | 5.66B | 5.50B | 5.71B | 5.06B | 6.29B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 362.00M | 259.00M | 47.00M | 461.00M | -2.45B | -1.94B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 362.00M | 259.00M | 47.00M | 461.00M | -2.48B | -1.94B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 447.00M | 641.00M | 780.00M | 286.00M | 1.74B | 23.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -660.00M | -616.00M | -983.00M | -670.00M | 612.00M | 1.96B |
Assured Guaranty Technical Analysis
Neutral
84.80
Price Trends
78.91
Negative
81.46
Negative
83.03
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.92
Negative
49.88
Neutral
77.33
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AGO, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 84.8 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 75.54, above the 50-day MA of 78.91, and above the 200-day MA of 83.03, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.92 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.88 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 77.33 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AGO.
Assured Guaranty Risk Analysis
Assured Guaranty disclosed 58 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Assured Guaranty reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Assured Guaranty Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
85 Outperform | $5.34B | 7.98 | 12.01% | 1.88% | 1.34% | 2.64% | |
80 Outperform | $5.87B | 8.88 | 12.74% | 2.02% | 1.98% | 3.55% | |
76 Outperform | $5.39B | 7.77 | 14.00% | 1.89% | -1.24% | 4.62% | |
76 Outperform | $2.79B | 7.32 | 0.06% | ― | 7.29% | 6.16% | |
72 Outperform | $4.54B | 8.44 | 12.01% | 2.78% | 7.69% | 3.24% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
65 Neutral | $3.35B | 8.36 | 7.38% | 1.50% | 2.70% | 3.06% |
* Financial Sector Average
AGO
Assured Guaranty
76.46
-6.90
-8.27%
MTG
MGIC Investment
25.81
-0.45
-1.70%
RDN
Radian Group
34.66
1.39
4.19%
ESNT
Essent Group
58.38
1.05
1.83%
NMIH
NMI Holdings
37.05
-3.29
-8.16%
ACT
Enact Holdings
42.41
7.54
21.62%
Assured Guaranty Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Assured Guaranty Posts New Q1 2026 Investor Materials
Neutral
May 8, 2026
On May 8, 2026, Assured Guaranty Ltd. announced that it had posted new investor materials on its website, including the Assured Guaranty Inc. March 31, 2026 Financial Supplement. The company also made available a Fixed Income Investor Presentation...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Assured Guaranty Shareholders Approve Directors, Pay and Auditors
Positive
May 5, 2026
Assured Guaranty held its annual general meeting of shareholders on May 1, 2026, at which shareholders elected all nominated directors to the board, with each candidate receiving a strong majority of votes cast despite some variation in support le...
Executive/Board Changes
Assured Guaranty Announces Retirement of Chief Credit Officer
Neutral
Mar 19, 2026
Assured Guaranty Ltd. announced that its Chief Credit Officer, Stephen Donnarumma, notified the company on March 13, 2026, of his decision to retire from his role effective September 30, 2026, after more than three decades of service. He will rema...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.