Assured Guaranty (AGO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $4.10B
• Dividend Yield: 1.63%
• Average Volume (3M): 337.93K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.69
• Revenue Growth: -4.43%
• EPS Growth: -45.42%
• Country: US
• Employees: 361
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 77
• Industry: Insurance - Specialty
• EPS (TTM): 3.18
• Shares Outstanding: 49,091,145
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 309,206
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 337,929
• PEG Ratio: 0.43
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.75
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 19.85
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.38
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.50
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.84
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 2.87
• 1Y Price Target: $107.50
• Price Target Upside: 28.57% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: ―

Assured Guaranty shows a solid financial foundation, with recent growth in revenue and profitability. However, the high debt levels and cash flow volatility are significant concerns. Technical indicators suggest a stable short-term outlook, with valuation appealing due to a low P/E ratio and reasonable dividend yield. The earnings call supports a positive strategic outlook but notes some risks, including increased loss expenses.

Assured Guaranty Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) is a leading financial guaranty insurance company, primarily engaged in providing credit protection products to public finance, infrastructure, and structured finance sectors. The company's core products include municipal bond insurance, which enhances the creditworthiness of bonds issued by municipalities and other governmental entities, as well as structured finance products that help manage risk and improve financial flexibility for its clients.

How the Company Makes Money

Assured Guaranty makes money primarily by charging premiums for providing financial guaranty insurance on bonds and other financial obligations. When the company insures a bond, it guarantees the payment of principal and interest to investors in case of default, thereby enhancing the bond's credit rating and reducing borrowing costs for issuers. AGO earns revenue from the upfront and installment premiums paid by issuers of the insured bonds. Additionally, the company invests the premiums it receives, generating investment income which contributes to its overall earnings. Significant factors that contribute to AGO's revenue include the volume of new insurance policies underwritten, prevailing interest rates affecting investment income, and the credit environment influencing demand for its products.

Assured Guaranty Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Assured Guaranty has demonstrated resilience in revenue recovery and improved profitability in 2023. However, it faces challenges with high leverage and cash flow volatility. The strong equity base is offset by considerable debt levels.

Income Statement

The revenue has shown inconsistency, with a decline from 2020 to 2022, but a rebound in 2023. The gross profit margin remained strong, and there was a significant improvement in net income for 2023. However, EBIT and EBITDA margins have not been consistently reported, limiting complete profitability analysis.

Balance Sheet

Assured Guaranty maintains a strong equity base, reflected in a healthy equity ratio. However, a high debt-to-equity ratio remains a concern, although it's stable. The company shows a fluctuating ROE, with a notable increase in recent years, indicating improved profitability.

Cash Flow

Cash flow from operations has improved in 2023, showing a positive trend after consecutive years of negative free cash flow. The operating cash flow to net income ratio indicates better cash management, but historical volatility in cash flows presents a risk.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	956.00M	814.00M	950.00M	684.00M	698.00M	1.08B
Gross Profit	826.00M	794.00M	733.00M	517.00M	519.00M	887.00M
EBITDA	294.00M	517.00M	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Net Income	443.00M	376.00M	739.00M	124.00M	389.00M	362.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	11.94B	11.90B	12.54B	16.84B	18.21B	15.33B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	6.59B	2.46B	132.00M	8.04B	9.55B	9.79B
Total Debt	1.70B	1.70B	1.69B	1.68B	1.67B	1.22B
Total Liabilities	6.28B	6.35B	6.77B	11.55B	1.67B	1.22B
Stockholders Equity	5.59B	5.50B	5.71B	5.06B	6.29B	6.64B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	208.00M	47.00M	461.00M	-2.45B	-1.94B	-853.00M
Operating Cash Flow	208.00M	47.00M	461.00M	-2.48B	-1.94B	-853.00M
Investing Cash Flow	661.00M	780.00M	286.00M	1.74B	23.00M	788.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-826.00M	-983.00M	-670.00M	612.00M	1.96B	183.00M

Assured Guaranty Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 83.61
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AGO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 83.61 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 85.47, below the 50-day MA of 85.66, and below the 200-day MA of 86.59, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.41 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.33 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.51 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AGO.

Assured Guaranty Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
RDN	78 Outperform	$4.55B	8.61	13.22%	3.01%	2.95%	4.08%
MTG	77 Outperform	$6.00B	8.40	15.12%	2.06%	4.64%	15.36%
ESNT	74 Outperform	$5.68B	8.20	13.29%	2.21%	9.87%	3.41%
Sector *	67 Neutral	$16.77B	11.74	9.77%	3.75%	12.07%	-8.28%
AGO	66 Neutral	$4.10B	9.81	7.90%	1.63%	-4.43%	-45.42%
AMBC	50 Neutral	$329.63M	65.47	-2.23%	―	10.50%	-92.02%
MBI	28 Underperform	$223.14M	―	26.69%	―	583.33%	6.59%

Assured Guaranty Corporate Events

Assured Guaranty Releases 2024 Financial Supplement

On March 14, 2025, Assured Guaranty Ltd. released its financial supplement and fixed income investor presentation for the period ending December 31, 2024. The audited financial statements indicate a stable financial position with a fair presentation of the company’s operations and cash flows, as confirmed by PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, reflecting the company’s adherence to US GAAP standards.