MBIA Inc (MBI)
NYSE:MBI
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MBIA
(NYSE:MBI)
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Rating:45Neutral
Price Target:
$6.00
▼(-3.54% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
MBI scores low mainly due to significant balance-sheet strain (deeply negative equity and high debt) alongside continued losses, which outweigh the improving TTM cash flow and better year-over-year results discussed on the earnings call. Technicals also lean bearish with the stock below major moving averages, while valuation is not clearly supportive given the negative P/E and no stated dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Improved cash generation
Sustained positive operating and free cash flow (TTM $48M, +~26% YoY) strengthens liquidity to fund portfolio runoff, pay claims and service debt without immediate external capital. Durable internal cash generation reduces reliance on volatile investment returns and eases short-term financing pressure.
Negative Factors
Deeply negative equity and high leverage
A severely stressed balance sheet—negative consolidated equity and nearly $2.9B of debt—materially limits strategic flexibility, elevates regulatory and solvency risk, and increases funding costs. Negative equity constrains options for dividends, share repurchases or growth until capital is meaningfully rebuilt.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improved cash generation
Sustained positive operating and free cash flow (TTM $48M, +~26% YoY) strengthens liquidity to fund portfolio runoff, pay claims and service debt without immediate external capital. Durable internal cash generation reduces reliance on volatile investment returns and eases short-term financing pressure.
Read all positive factors
MBIA Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
MBIA (MBI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$311.72M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)337.94K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.96
Revenue Growth109.30%
EPS Growth64.74%
CountryUS
Employees57
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-3.11
Shares Outstanding50,934,040
10 Day Avg. Volume273,402
30 Day Avg. Volume337,939
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.03
Price to Book (P/B)-0.16
Price to Sales (P/S)4.41
P/FCF Ratio9.29
Enterprise Value/Market Cap11.62
Enterprise Value/Revenue40.24
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit106.52
Enterprise Value/Ebitda106.52
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$7.25Price Target Upside16.56% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.42
Revenue Forecast (FY)$21.70M
MBIA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
MBIA Inc. provides financial guarantee insurance services to public finance markets. It operates through United States (U.S.) Public Finance Insurance, and International and Structured Finance Insurance segments. The company issues financial guara...
How the Company Makes Money
MBIA’s earnings have historically been driven by its financial guarantee insurance business model. The company generates revenue primarily from (1) premiums/insurance revenue earned for providing guarantees on debt obligations (often collected upf...
MBIA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated a materially improved operating and capital performance versus FY2024: GAAP losses narrowed substantially, adjusted results returned to profitability, National returned to statutory profitability and increased statutory capital, and portfolio runoff reduced leverage. However, material legacy issues persist — most notably an unresolved PREPA exposure ($425M remaining) tied to legal uncertainty, negative consolidated book value per share, FX losses, and constrained surplus at MBIA Insurance Corporation. Overall, results show meaningful progress but legacy legal and balance‑sheet constraints remain important risks.Positive Updates
Significant Full‑Year GAAP Loss Improvement
Consolidated GAAP net loss improved from $447 million in FY2024 to $177 million in FY2025, a $270 million (≈60%) reduction in the annual GAAP loss.
Negative Updates
MBIA Inc. Negative Book Value Per Share
MBIA Inc.'s book value per share decreased $3.28 to a negative $44.27 per share as of 12/31/2025; included in that is a negative $53.35 per share of MBIA Insurance Corporation's book value.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Significant Full‑Year GAAP Loss Improvement
Consolidated GAAP net loss improved from $447 million in FY2024 to $177 million in FY2025, a $270 million (≈60%) reduction in the annual GAAP loss.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management gave limited forward guidance: the priority remains resolving National’s PREPA exposure, but they said substantive progress is unlikely until legal issues involving members of the Financial Oversight and Management Board are resolved; they are continuously evaluating a potential special dividend (no commitment or timetable; regulator approval required) and said the likelihood/size would increase as the portfolio runs off and PREPA exposure declines. Key metrics cited on the call: National gross par outstanding fell by ~$3.0 billion to about $22 billion (leverage of 24:1, down from 28:1), National statutory capital was $937 million (up $25 million Y/Y) with claims‑paying resources of $1.4 billion, National statutory net income was $5 million in Q4 and $88 million for FY‑2025 (vs statutory losses of $10M and $133M in 2024), MBIA Insurance Corporation statutory capital was $79 million (down from $88M) with claims‑paying resources of $317 million and insured gross par ≈ $2 billion (down ~13% Y/Y), MBIA Inc. corporate assets were ≈ $653 million with $357 million of unencumbered cash/liquid assets (vs $380M at 12/31/2024) and ~$183 million pledged to GIA holders, National paid a $63 million as‑of‑right dividend to MBIA Inc., consolidated GAAP net loss was $51 million (Q4‑2025, −$1.01/sh) and $177 million (FY‑2025, −$3.58/sh) versus $447 million (FY‑2024, −$9.43/sh), adjusted results were $23 million (adjusted net income, FY‑2025, $0.46/sh) versus an adjusted net loss of $184 million in FY‑2024 (Q4 adjusted net loss was −$12M, −$0.24/sh), and MBIA Inc. book value per share was −$44.27 as of 12/31/2025 (down $3.28), including a −$53.35 per‑share component for MBIA Insurance Corporation.MBIA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
22
Negative
Balance Sheet
12
Very Negative
Cash Flow
48
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 90.00M | 80.00M | 42.00M | 7.00M | 154.00M | 159.00M |
| Gross Profit | 34.00M | 12.00M | -146.00M | -175.00M | 108.00M | -197.00M |
| EBITDA | 34.00M | 16.00M | -232.00M | -273.00M | 32.00M | -264.00M |
| Net Income | -155.00M | -177.00M | -444.00M | -487.00M | -203.00M | -445.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.98B | 2.01B | 2.17B | 2.61B | 3.38B | 4.70B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.50B | 1.52B | 1.50B | 107.00M | 2.23B | 2.69B |
| Total Debt | 3.38B | 3.35B | 3.22B | 3.16B | 3.10B | 3.21B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.26B | 4.24B | 4.24B | 4.25B | 4.25B | 5.00B |
| Stockholders Equity | -2.28B | -2.24B | -2.09B | -1.66B | -882.00M | -313.00M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 48.00M | 38.00M | -176.00M | -195.00M | -418.00M | 510.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 48.00M | 38.00M | -176.00M | -195.00M | -418.00M | 511.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 30.00M | 25.00M | 287.00M | 767.00M | 623.00M | -61.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -69.00M | -79.00M | -132.00M | -542.00M | -285.00M | -457.00M |
MBIA Technical Analysis
Positive
6.22
Price Trends
5.94
Positive
6.24
Negative
6.75
Negative
Market Momentum
0.03
Negative
52.54
Neutral
58.23
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MBI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6.22 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.00, above the 50-day MA of 5.94, and below the 200-day MA of 6.75, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.54 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 58.23 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MBI.
MBIA Risk Analysis
MBIA disclosed 21 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. MBIA reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
MBIA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $4.83B | 9.13 | 12.01% | 2.78% | 7.69% | 3.24% | |
74 Outperform | $455.50M | 16.91 | 14.03% | 4.20% | 7.19% | 27.90% | |
68 Neutral | $3.40B | 10.51 | 7.38% | 1.50% | 2.70% | 3.06% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
64 Neutral | $958.78M | 57.08 | 6.87% | ― | 12.10% | ― | |
45 Neutral | $311.72M | -1.84 | 6.98% | ― | 109.30% | 64.74% |
* Financial Sector Average
MBI
MBIA
6.12
1.57
34.51%
AGO
Assured Guaranty
76.19
-7.71
-9.19%
ITIC
Investors Title Company
242.39
15.02
6.61%
RDN
Radian Group
35.72
2.54
7.65%
TRUP
Trupanion
21.86
-25.92
-54.24%
MBIA Corporate Events
Financial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
MBIA to Release Q1 2026 Operating Supplement
Neutral
May 7, 2026
On May 7, 2026, MBIA plans to publish on its website a Quarterly Operating Supplement for the first quarter of 2026, along with statutory quarterly statements for MBIA Insurance Corporation and National Public Finance Guarantee Corporation, and de...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
MBIA Enhances Transparency With New 2025 Financial Disclosures
Positive
Feb 26, 2026
On February 26, 2026, MBIA announced it would post on its website fourth-quarter 2025 Quarterly Operating Supplements and Statutory Statements, as well as 2025 Annual Statements for MBIA Insurance Corporation and National Public Finance Guarantee ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.