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MBIA
(NYSE:MBI)
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Rating:45Neutral
Price Target:
$5.00
▼(-11.66% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/07/26
MBI scores low primarily due to weak financial performance (large ongoing losses and a highly leveraged, negative-equity balance sheet), reinforced by bearish technicals (price below key moving averages with negative MACD). The earnings call adds a modest offset from statutory improvements and de-risking progress, but PREPA uncertainty, continued consolidated losses, and declining liquidity keep the overall risk profile elevated; valuation provides limited support given negative earnings and no dividend yield provided.
Positive Factors
Statutory profitability at insurance subsidiaries
Sustained statutory profitability and rising statutory capital at the insurance subsidiaries strengthen regulatory solvency metrics and claims-paying credibility. That durable improvement supports ongoing runoff management, reduces near-term capital calls, and increases options for managing legacy exposures over months.
Negative Factors
Highly strained balance sheet and negative equity
Material negative equity combined with very large debt materially constrains financial flexibility. Over months this increases refinancing and solvency risk, limits ability to raise capital, and forces management to prioritize liability management over organic investment or growth initiatives.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Statutory profitability at insurance subsidiaries
Sustained statutory profitability and rising statutory capital at the insurance subsidiaries strengthen regulatory solvency metrics and claims-paying credibility. That durable improvement supports ongoing runoff management, reduces near-term capital calls, and increases options for managing legacy exposures over months.
Read all positive factors
MBIA Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
MBIA (MBI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$260.69M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)337.94K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.78
Revenue Growth-8.74%
EPS Growth36.99%
CountryUS
Employees57
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-2.90
Shares Outstanding51,016,445
10 Day Avg. Volume273,402
30 Day Avg. Volume337,939
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.03
Price to Book (P/B)-0.16
Price to Sales (P/S)4.41
P/FCF Ratio9.29
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda>-0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$7.25Price Target Upside28.09% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.42
Revenue Forecast (FY)$21.90M
MBIA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
MBIA Inc. focuses on providing insurance services that guarantee financial obligations, predominantly within the public finance arena. The company operates through two main divisions: one dedicated to U.S. Public Finance Insurance, and another cov...
How the Company Makes Money
MBIA’s historical core business model has been financial guarantee insurance (bond insurance). It made money primarily by (1) earning insurance premiums in exchange for guaranteeing timely payment of interest and principal on insured bonds and oth...
MBIA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call conveyed a mix of constructive operational and statutory developments (portfolio runoff, improved leverage, positive statutory income at subsidiaries, available buyback capacity and custodial receipts) alongside persistent and material challenges (continued consolidated losses, negative book value, significant PREPA litigation and settlement uncertainty, and modest cash decline). Progress on PREPA exposure and portfolio reductions are positives, but unresolved legal and political risks and reliance on one-time items to reduce GAAP losses temper the outlook.Positive Updates
Reduction in PREPA Exposure
National's outstanding PREPA exposure declined by $35 million to $390 million gross par value due to policy claims paid on bonds that matured July 1, 2026.
Negative Updates
Consolidated GAAP Losses Year-to-Date
MBIA reported a consolidated net loss of $46 million in Q2 2026 and a consolidated net loss of $86 million for the first six months of 2026, contributing to pressure on book value.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Reduction in PREPA Exposure
National's outstanding PREPA exposure declined by $35 million to $390 million gross par value due to policy claims paid on bonds that matured July 1, 2026.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated that resolving National's PREPA exposure is the top priority and gave detailed metrics: PREPA gross par declined $35M to $390M after July 1 payments; the Oversight Board nearly doubled its offer from $1.6B to ~ $3B (rejected by bondholders representing ~90%); remaining PREPA debt service is $20M in 2027 and $20M in 2028. They noted National's insured gross par fell ~$1.5B to ~$20.8B, with leverage (gross par to statutory capital) improving to 21:1 from 24:1 at year‑end 2025, claims‑paying resources of $1.4B and statutory capital of ~ $968–970M. Corporate liquidity metrics: total corporate assets ~$635M, unencumbered cash/liquid assets $337M (down from $357M), $183M pledged to GIA holders, $66M at MBIA Services; $71M buyback capacity remains and up to $35M in custodial receipts could be sold. Reported results: Q2 consolidated GAAP net loss $46M (‑$0.91/sh), adjusted net loss $7M (‑$0.14/sh), YTD net loss $86M driving MBIA Inc. book value to ‑$45.58/sh (including ‑$54.26/sh for MBIA Insurance Corp.), and management said any dividends, buybacks or sale process will depend on further PREPA progress while they manage liquidity.MBIA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
18
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
12
Very Negative
Cash Flow
32
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 94.00M | 80.00M | 42.00M | 7.00M | 154.00M | 159.00M |
| Gross Profit | 28.00M | 12.00M | -146.00M | -175.00M | 108.00M | -197.00M |
| EBITDA | -2.00M | 16.00M | -232.00M | -273.00M | 32.00M | -264.00M |
| Net Income | -145.00M | -177.00M | -444.00M | -487.00M | -203.00M | -445.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.98B | 2.01B | 2.17B | 2.61B | 3.38B | 4.70B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.16B | 1.52B | 1.50B | 107.00M | 2.23B | 2.69B |
| Total Debt | 2.92B | 3.35B | 3.22B | 3.16B | 3.10B | 3.21B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.30B | 4.24B | 4.24B | 4.25B | 4.25B | 5.00B |
| Stockholders Equity | -2.33B | -2.24B | -2.09B | -1.66B | -882.00M | -313.00M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 10.00M | 38.00M | -176.00M | -195.00M | -418.00M | 510.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 10.00M | 38.00M | -176.00M | -195.00M | -418.00M | 511.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 11.00M | 25.00M | 287.00M | 767.00M | 623.00M | -61.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -70.00M | -79.00M | -132.00M | -542.00M | -285.00M | -457.00M |
MBIA Technical Analysis
Negative
5.66
Price Trends
6.03
Negative
5.99
Negative
6.44
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.29
Positive
28.46
Positive
28.02
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MBI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 5.66 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.75, below the 50-day MA of 6.03, and below the 200-day MA of 6.44, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.29 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 28.46 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 28.02 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MBI.
MBIA Risk Analysis
MBIA disclosed 21 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. MBIA reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
MBIA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $4.91B | 9.34 | 11.81% | 2.64% | 27.93% | -2.18% | |
74 Outperform | $547.22M | 13.54 | 14.03% | 3.71% | 8.67% | 21.89% | |
68 Neutral | $1.18B | 50.92 | 5.96% | ― | 11.80% | 108.73% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
64 Neutral | $3.34B | 11.66 | 6.26% | 1.69% | 1.45% | -17.74% | |
45 Neutral | $260.69M | -1.76 | 6.98% | ― | -8.74% | 36.99% |
* Financial Sector Average
MBI
MBIA
5.11
-0.92
-15.26%
AGO
Assured Guaranty
75.43
-5.25
-6.51%
ITIC
Investors Title Company
289.84
68.72
31.08%
RDN
Radian Group
36.91
3.72
11.21%
TRUP
Trupanion
26.99
-22.50
-45.46%
MBIA Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
MBIA Enhances Transparency With Updated Quarterly Financial Disclosures
Positive
Aug 6, 2026
On August 6, 2026, MBIA announced it would post its second-quarter 2026 Quarterly Operating Supplement and statutory financial statements for MBIA Insurance Corporation and National Public Finance Guarantee Corporation on its website, along with d...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.