MBIA Inc (MBI)
NYSE:MBI
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MBIA
(NYSE:MBI)
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Rating:46Neutral
Price Target:
$6.00
▼(-3.54% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/01/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial fundamentals—persistent losses, severely negative equity, and high leverage—despite improving cash flow. Technicals also reflect a soft trend with the stock trading below key moving averages. The earnings call adds some support from a narrowing GAAP loss and stable claims-paying resources, but unresolved PREPA exposure, negative book value, and near-term PREPA cash needs remain significant constraints.
Positive Factors
Improved Cash Generation
Transitioning from multi-year negative cash flow to sustained positive operating and free cash flow improves MBIA's ability to service obligations, fund opportunistic debt repurchases, and absorb shocks. Durable FCF reduces short-term refinancing dependence despite accounting losses.
Negative Factors
Deeply negative equity
Persistently negative book equity is a structural weakness: it limits capital-raising options, elevates regulatory and solvency risk, and constrains strategic flexibility. Negative equity can impede transactions, increase cost of capital, and magnify shocks to claims-paying credibility.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improved Cash Generation
Transitioning from multi-year negative cash flow to sustained positive operating and free cash flow improves MBIA's ability to service obligations, fund opportunistic debt repurchases, and absorb shocks. Durable FCF reduces short-term refinancing dependence despite accounting losses.
Read all positive factors
MBIA Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
MBIA (MBI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$309.68M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)337.94K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.91
Revenue Growth109.30%
EPS Growth64.74%
CountryUS
Employees57
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-3.11
Shares Outstanding50,934,040
10 Day Avg. Volume273,402
30 Day Avg. Volume337,939
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.03
Price to Book (P/B)-0.16
Price to Sales (P/S)4.41
P/FCF Ratio9.29
Enterprise Value/Market Cap11.69
Enterprise Value/Revenue40.24
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit106.51
Enterprise Value/Ebitda106.51
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$7.00Price Target Upside12.54% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.42
Revenue Forecast (FY)$21.70M
MBIA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
MBIA Inc. focuses on providing insurance services that guarantee financial obligations, predominantly within the public finance arena. The company operates through two main divisions: one dedicated to U.S. Public Finance Insurance, and another cov...
How the Company Makes Money
MBIA’s historical core business model has been financial guarantee insurance (bond insurance). It made money primarily by (1) earning insurance premiums in exchange for guaranteeing timely payment of interest and principal on insured bonds and oth...
MBIA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mix of positive operational and financial developments (narrower GAAP loss, stronger statutory results at National, stable claims-paying resources, modest reduction in leverage and portfolio runoff) but also material negatives (negative book value per share, unchanged PREPA exposure with legal delays, near-term PREPA cash needs, and no change in adjusted net loss). Strategic options remain undecided and legal uncertainty on PREPA resolution is a meaningful constraint.Positive Updates
Improved Consolidated GAAP Result
Consolidated GAAP net loss narrowed to $40 million (−$0.80/share) in Q1 2026 from $62 million (−$1.28/share) in Q1 2025, an improvement of $22 million (~35% reduction in GAAP net loss).
Negative Updates
Negative Book Value Per Share and Further Decline
MBIA Inc.'s book value per share decreased $0.55 in the quarter to a negative $44.82 as of March 31, 2026. Included in that is a negative $53.59 per share attributable to MBIA Insurance Corp.'s book value.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Improved Consolidated GAAP Result
Consolidated GAAP net loss narrowed to $40 million (−$0.80/share) in Q1 2026 from $62 million (−$1.28/share) in Q1 2025, an improvement of $22 million (~35% reduction in GAAP net loss).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company’s guidance centered on resolving its Puerto Rico PREPA exposure and managing corporate liquidity and debt: PREPA gross par remains unchanged at $425 million with approximately $35 million of PREPA-related debt service expected for the rest of 2026, but management said substantive progress is unlikely until legal issues with the Oversight Board are resolved (a Supreme Court decision in the Lisa Cook matter could allow the Puerto Rico case to resume and three Board seats could then be filled). Key Q1 metrics cited were consolidated GAAP net loss of $40 million (‑$0.80/share) versus a $62 million loss (‑$1.28) a year ago, adjusted net loss of $8 million (‑$0.16/share) unchanged year‑over‑year, MBIA Inc. book value per share down $0.55 to negative $44.82 (including MBIA Insurance Corp. negative $53.59/share), National gross par outstanding of about $21.5 billion (down ~$900 million since year‑end 2025) with a leverage ratio of 23:1 (down from 24:1), National statutory capital of $950 million (up $13 million) and claims‑paying resources of $1.4 billion, National statutory net income of $11 million (vs. $4 million), MBIA Insurance Corp. statutory capital of $79 million and claims‑paying resources of $316 million (insured gross par just under $2 billion, down ~7%), and a corporate segment balance sheet with ~$639 million total assets, ~$353 million unencumbered cash/liquid assets (vs. $357 million at year‑end) and ~$181 million of assets pledged to GIA holders; management also reiterated focus on repaying holding‑company debt maturing in 2027–2028 and opportunistically repurchasing debt at discounts (with larger opportunities expected as maturities move into the 2030s).MBIA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
22
Negative
Balance Sheet
12
Very Negative
Cash Flow
48
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 90.00M | 80.00M | 42.00M | 7.00M | 154.00M | 159.00M |
| Gross Profit | 34.00M | 12.00M | -146.00M | -175.00M | 108.00M | -197.00M |
| EBITDA | 34.00M | 16.00M | -232.00M | -273.00M | 32.00M | -264.00M |
| Net Income | -155.00M | -177.00M | -444.00M | -487.00M | -203.00M | -445.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.98B | 2.01B | 2.17B | 2.61B | 3.38B | 4.70B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.50B | 1.52B | 1.50B | 107.00M | 2.23B | 2.69B |
| Total Debt | 3.38B | 3.35B | 3.22B | 3.16B | 3.10B | 3.21B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.26B | 4.24B | 4.24B | 4.25B | 4.25B | 5.00B |
| Stockholders Equity | -2.28B | -2.24B | -2.09B | -1.66B | -882.00M | -313.00M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 48.00M | 38.00M | -176.00M | -195.00M | -418.00M | 510.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 48.00M | 38.00M | -176.00M | -195.00M | -418.00M | 511.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 30.00M | 25.00M | 287.00M | 767.00M | 623.00M | -61.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -69.00M | -79.00M | -132.00M | -542.00M | -285.00M | -457.00M |
MBIA Technical Analysis
Neutral
6.22
Price Trends
6.00
Positive
6.08
Positive
6.66
Negative
Market Momentum
0.05
Negative
51.46
Neutral
67.88
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MBI, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 6.22 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.01, above the 50-day MA of 6.00, and below the 200-day MA of 6.66, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.46 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.88 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for MBI.
MBIA Risk Analysis
MBIA disclosed 21 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. MBIA reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
MBIA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $487.82M | 12.81 | 14.03% | 4.20% | 7.19% | 27.90% | |
72 Outperform | $4.61B | 8.45 | 12.01% | 2.78% | 7.69% | 3.24% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
65 Neutral | $3.39B | 8.37 | 7.38% | 1.50% | 2.70% | 3.06% | |
64 Neutral | $1.03B | 39.70 | 6.87% | ― | 12.10% | ― | |
46 Neutral | $309.68M | -1.95 | 6.98% | ― | 109.30% | 64.74% |
* Financial Sector Average
MBI
MBIA
6.08
1.71
39.13%
AGO
Assured Guaranty
76.52
-9.13
-10.66%
ITIC
Investors Title Company
258.38
57.20
28.43%
RDN
Radian Group
34.70
-0.51
-1.44%
TRUP
Trupanion
23.54
-32.91
-58.30%
MBIA Corporate Events
Financial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
MBIA to Release Q1 2026 Operating Supplement
Neutral
May 7, 2026
On May 7, 2026, MBIA plans to publish on its website a Quarterly Operating Supplement for the first quarter of 2026, along with statutory quarterly statements for MBIA Insurance Corporation and National Public Finance Guarantee Corporation, and de...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.