MBIA (MBI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $332.45M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 320.83K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.89
• Revenue Growth: 583.33%
• EPS Growth: 6.59%
• Country: US
• Employees: 57
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 67
• Industry: Insurance - Specialty
• EPS (TTM): -0.17
• Shares Outstanding: 50,488,743
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 571,605
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 320,829
• PEG Ratio: 0.09
• Price to Book (P/B): -0.15
• Price to Sales (P/S): 7.30
• P/FCF Ratio: -1.74
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 11.15
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 617.67
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 137.26
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -11.88
• 1Y Price Target: $7.50
• Price Target Upside: 18.86% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2

• Rating: 28 Underperform
• Price Target: ―

The overall stock score for MBIA is low at 28, reflecting serious financial instability, poor technical indicators, and unattractive valuation metrics. While there are some improvements in loss reduction, significant risks remain, such as high liabilities and unresolved debt issues, which overshadow any positive developments.

MBIA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

MBIA Inc. (MBI) is a financial services company that primarily operates in the insurance and financial guarantee sectors. The company offers financial guarantee insurance, which provides credit enhancement and loss protection to issuers of various types of debt obligations, including municipal and structured finance bonds. MBIA is headquartered in the United States and serves a diverse range of clients, including municipalities, utilities, and other public finance entities.

How the Company Makes Money

MBIA makes money primarily through premiums earned from its financial guarantee insurance products. The company collects premiums from clients in exchange for providing insurance that guarantees the timely payment of principal and interest on bonds and other securities. This insurance is particularly valuable to issuers of municipal bonds, as it enhances the credit quality of the bonds, potentially lowering borrowing costs for issuers and providing security for investors. Additionally, MBIA may earn investment income from its portfolio of invested assets, which includes the premiums collected and other funds. The company's revenue is also influenced by the overall health of the financial markets, interest rates, and the creditworthiness of its insured entities.

MBIA Financial Statement Overview

Summary

MBIA is facing severe financial difficulties across all fronts. Persistent losses and negative cash flows, coupled with an unsustainable balance sheet, highlight significant financial instability. The company must address its debt and improve operational efficiency to stabilize its financial health.

Income Statement

The income statement shows a negative trajectory with declining revenue over recent years. The company has consistently negative EBIT and net income, reflecting poor profitability. The gross profit margin is misleadingly high due to negligible costs, but the net profit margin is deep in the negative, indicating significant losses.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is concerning, with negative stockholders' equity suggesting insolvency risk. The debt-to-equity ratio is negative due to negative equity, indicating an unsustainable capital structure. The equity ratio is also negative, highlighting that liabilities exceed assets significantly.

Cash Flow

Cash flow statements reflect operational struggles, with negative operating cash flow and free cash flow over several years. Although there was a slight improvement in operating cash flow from 2023 to 2024, it remains negative, indicating ongoing cash flow challenges.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	6.00M	42.00M	6.00M	150.00M	159.00M	282.00M
Gross Profit	27.00M	-146.00M	6.00M	74.00M	62.00M	190.00M
EBITDA	-312.00M	-441.00M	0.00	32.00M	0.00	0.00
Net Income	-420.00M	-444.00M	-491.00M	-149.00M	-445.00M	-578.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.13B	2.17B	2.61B	3.38B	4.70B	5.75B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.48B	1.01B	107.00M	2.23B	2.69B	2.71B
Total Debt	3.26B	2.74B	3.16B	3.10B	3.21B	3.56B
Total Liabilities	4.25B	4.24B	4.25B	4.25B	3.21B	3.56B
Stockholders Equity	-2.13B	-2.09B	-1.66B	-882.00M	-313.00M	136.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-189.00M	-176.00M	-195.00M	-418.00M	510.00M	-390.00M
Operating Cash Flow	-189.00M	-176.00M	-195.00M	-418.00M	511.00M	-390.00M
Investing Cash Flow	186.00M	287.00M	767.00M	623.00M	-61.00M	1.74B
Financing Cash Flow	-72.00M	-132.00M	-542.00M	-285.00M	-457.00M	-1.26B

MBIA Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 6.31
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MBI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6.31 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.16, above the 50-day MA of 4.69, and above the 200-day MA of 5.32, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.46 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 72.26 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.15 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MBI.

MBIA Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
RDN	78 Outperform	$4.53B	8.43	13.07%	3.00%	2.95%	4.08%
ACT	78 Outperform	$5.34B	8.23	13.47%	2.11%	3.15%	5.70%
MTG	75 Outperform	$6.23B	8.86	14.85%	2.04%	3.26%	12.70%
Sector *	67 Neutral	$17.03B	11.50	9.79%	3.95%	10.63%	1.98%
AGO	66 Neutral	$4.23B	10.11	7.90%	1.54%	-4.43%	-45.42%
AMBC	55 Neutral	$396.49M	76.55	-2.23%	―	10.50%	-92.02%
MBI	28 Underperform	$332.45M	―	26.69%	―	583.33%	6.59%

MBIA Corporate Events

MBIA to Update Financial Statements for Q4 2024

MBIA announced that on February 27, 2025, it will update its website with the Quarterly Operating Supplement and Quarterly and Annual Statements for the fourth quarter of 2024. These updates will include detailed information about MBIA Insurance Corporation and National Public Finance Guarantee Corporation. Additionally, MBIA will provide insights into its insured portfolios as of December 31, 2024, with further updates to its Frequently Asked Questions section expected on or around February 28, 2025.

MBIA Approves $10M Retention Awards for Executives

On February 11, 2025, MBIA Inc.’s Board of Directors approved special cash retention awards totaling $10,175,000 for four executive officers under its Omnibus Incentive Plan. These awards aim to retain the executives crucial for managing the company’s runoff portfolios and ensuring shareholder value through 2028. The vesting of these awards is contingent upon continued employment until 2028, with conditions for early vesting in case of a qualifying termination.