MBIA (MBI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $342.31M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 337.94K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.95
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: 67.72%
• Country: US
• Employees: 57
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Insurance - Specialty
• EPS (TTM): 1.03
• Shares Outstanding: 50,488,743
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 273,402
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 337,939
• PEG Ratio: 0.09
• Price to Book (P/B): -0.15
• Price to Sales (P/S): 7.30
• P/FCF Ratio: -1.74
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 10.83
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 41.64
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 34.96
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -142.54
• 1Y Price Target: $7.75
• Price Target Upside: 4.59% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 49 Neutral
• Price Target: $7.50 ▲(1.21% Upside)

MBIA's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its weak financial performance, characterized by significant losses and financial instability. While technical indicators show positive momentum, the valuation remains unattractive due to negative earnings. The earnings call provided some positive developments, but ongoing challenges and uncertainties weigh heavily on the stock's prospects.

MBIA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

MBIA Inc. provides financial guarantee insurance services to public finance markets. It operates through United States (U.S.) Public Finance Insurance, and International and Structured Finance Insurance segments. The company issues financial guarantees for municipal bonds, including tax-exempt and taxable indebtedness of the U.S. political subdivisions and territories, as well as utilities, airports, health care institutions, higher educational facilities, student loan issuers, housing authorities, and other similar agencies and obligations issued by private entities. It also insures the non-U.S. public finance and global structured finance, including asset-backed obligations; and sovereign-related and sub-sovereign bonds, utilities, and privately issued bonds used for the financing of projects that include toll roads, bridges, airports, public transportation facilities, and other types of infrastructure projects, as well as offers third-party reinsurance services. MBIA Inc. was founded in 1973 and is headquartered in Purchase, New York.

How the Company Makes Money

MBIA generates revenue primarily through the sale of insurance policies that enhance the credit quality of municipal and structured finance securities. The company's core revenue streams include premiums collected from policyholders, which are based on the amount of insurance provided and the credit risk associated with the underlying bonds. Additionally, MBIA earns investment income from its portfolio of fixed-income securities, which is bolstered by the premiums received. The company may also benefit from strategic partnerships with financial institutions and municipalities, enabling it to expand its client base and generate additional revenue through advisory services and risk management solutions. Overall, the combination of insurance premium income and investment returns forms the backbone of MBIA's revenue model.

MBIA Financial Statement Overview

Summary

MBIA faces significant financial challenges across all verticals. The income statement reflects ongoing losses and declining revenues, while the balance sheet shows high leverage and negative equity, indicating financial instability. Although there is some improvement in cash flow, the overall financial health of the company remains weak, with substantial risks and limited profitability.

Income Statement

The income statement reveals significant challenges, with negative net profit margins and declining revenue growth. The TTM data shows a net profit margin of -198.88%, indicating substantial losses. Revenue has decreased by 13.59% in the TTM period, reflecting a downward trend. The company struggles with profitability, as evidenced by negative EBIT and EBITDA margins.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet indicates financial instability, with a negative stockholders' equity and a high debt-to-equity ratio of -1.31 in the TTM period. This suggests high leverage and potential solvency issues. The return on equity is positive but low, reflecting minimal returns on shareholders' investments. Overall, the balance sheet highlights significant financial risk.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement shows some improvement, with a positive operating cash flow in the TTM period. However, the free cash flow growth rate is negative, and the operating cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.29, indicating limited cash generation relative to net losses. The company faces challenges in maintaining positive cash flow amidst ongoing losses.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	89.00M	42.00M	7.00M	154.00M	159.00M	282.00M
Gross Profit	106.00M	-146.00M	-175.00M	108.00M	-197.00M	-258.00M
EBITDA	-26.00M	-232.00M	-273.00M	32.00M	-264.00M	-350.00M
Net Income	-174.00M	-444.00M	-487.00M	-203.00M	-445.00M	-578.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.06B	2.17B	2.61B	3.38B	4.70B	5.75B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.57B	1.50B	107.00M	2.23B	2.69B	2.71B
Total Debt	3.35B	3.22B	3.16B	3.10B	3.21B	3.56B
Total Liabilities	4.23B	4.24B	4.25B	4.25B	5.00B	5.60B
Stockholders Equity	-2.18B	-2.09B	-1.66B	-882.00M	-313.00M	136.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	51.00M	-176.00M	-195.00M	-418.00M	510.00M	-390.00M
Operating Cash Flow	51.00M	-176.00M	-195.00M	-418.00M	511.00M	-390.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-29.00M	287.00M	767.00M	623.00M	-61.00M	1.74B
Financing Cash Flow	-27.00M	-132.00M	-542.00M	-285.00M	-457.00M	-1.26B

MBIA Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 7.41
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MBI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 7.41 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.20, above the 50-day MA of 7.22, and above the 200-day MA of 5.83, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.18 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.96 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.68 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MBI.

MBIA Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ITIC	80 Outperform	$504.51M	14.40	13.12%	5.62%	13.47%	26.15%
AGO	73 Outperform	$4.03B	10.72	7.06%	1.54%	7.56%	-38.23%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
RDN	66 Neutral	$4.68B	8.61	12.56%	2.86%	-3.68%	3.65%
TRUP	62 Neutral	$1.56B	98.37	4.49%	―	12.50%	―
AMBC	58 Neutral	$395.62M	―	-4.14%	―	-37.46%	-117.36%
MBI	49 Neutral	$342.31M	-1.48	―	―	―	67.72%

MBIA Corporate Events

MBIA Inc. Reports Q3 2025 Financial Results Amid Challenges

MBIA Inc. is a financial services company operating primarily in the financial guarantee insurance industry, offering insurance for U.S. public finance, corporate, and international and structured finance sectors. In its latest earnings report for the quarter ending September 30, 2025, MBIA Inc. reported a net loss of $8 million, reflecting ongoing challenges in its insured portfolios and restructuring efforts. Key financial metrics showed total revenues of $15 million, a decrease from the previous year, and total expenses of $22 million, highlighting the company’s efforts to manage its financial obligations amid a challenging market environment. Despite these challenges, MBIA Inc. continues to focus on strategic initiatives, including the restructuring of its Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (PREPA) exposure and the dissolution of MBIA Mexico. Looking ahead, MBIA Inc.’s management remains focused on navigating market uncertainties and optimizing its financial position through strategic adjustments and risk management practices.

MBIA Inc. Earnings Call: Mixed Outlook with Financial Gains and Challenges

The recent earnings call for MBIA Inc. presented a mixed outlook, highlighting both significant financial improvements and ongoing challenges. The company demonstrated strong financial management with reductions in net losses and positive adjustments in National’s PREPA exposure. However, MBIA Insurance Corp.’s financial difficulties and the legal and regulatory uncertainties surrounding PREPA remain significant hurdles. Overall, the sentiment was balanced, reflecting both positive strides and persistent challenges.

MBIA to Update Website with Q3 2025 Financials

On November 4, 2025, MBIA announced it will update its website with the third quarter 2025 financial information, including operating supplements and statutory statements for MBIA Insurance Corporation and National Public Finance Guarantee Corporation. Additionally, the company will provide details on its insured portfolios as of September 30, 2025. This update is expected to offer stakeholders comprehensive insights into MBIA’s financial health and portfolio status, potentially impacting investor perceptions and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (MBI) stock is a Hold with a $6.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MBIA stock, see the MBI Stock Forecast page.

MBIA Sells $374 Million in Custodial Receipts

On August 14, 2025, National sold Custodial Receipts (CRs) representing bankruptcy claims in a transaction involving approximately $374 million face amount of CRs. This sale, which follows similar transactions in October 2021 and January 2022, reduces potential volatility and ongoing risk for National’s remaining PREPA exposure, as the Title III case remains uncertain.

The most recent analyst rating on (MBI) stock is a Buy with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MBIA stock, see the MBI Stock Forecast page.