MBIA (MBI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $383.75M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 337.94K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.89
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: 67.72%
• Country: US
• Employees: 57
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Insurance - Specialty
• EPS (TTM): 1.03
• Shares Outstanding: 50,493,626
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 273,402
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 337,939
• PEG Ratio: 0.09
• Price to Book (P/B): -0.15
• Price to Sales (P/S): 7.30
• P/FCF Ratio: -1.74
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 9.66
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 41.64
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 34.96
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -142.54
• 1Y Price Target: $7.75
• Price Target Upside: 1.97% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 45 Neutral
• Price Target: $7.50 ▼(-1.32% Downside)

Overall score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (large losses, declining revenue, negative equity and leverage risk). Technicals are modestly supportive with price above key moving averages but not strong momentum, while valuation is constrained by negative earnings. The latest earnings call shows improvement versus last year, but persistent negative book value and PREPA-related uncertainty cap the upside.

Positive Factors

Recurring insurance and advisory revenue

MBIA's core revenue streams—premiums, underwriting fees, investment income and advisory services—are structurally recurring. This fee-and-investment model benefits from ongoing municipal and structured finance issuance demand, supporting a durable revenue base and long-term cash flows.

Reduction in PREPA exposure via claim sale

Selling $374M of PREPA-related bankruptcy claims materially reduces legacy exposure, lowering reserve volatility and potential future loss recognition. This structural de-risking improves balance-sheet loss absorbency and enhances sustainable earnings potential across multiple quarters.

Positive operating cash flow

Positive operating cash flow in the trailing twelve months indicates core insurance operations generate cash despite accounting losses. Durable cash generation supports claims-paying ability, ongoing operations, and gives management flexibility to address liabilities and fund strategic actions during a multi-quarter recovery.

Negative Factors

Negative consolidated book value

Consolidated negative book value per share (-$43.17) signals capital erosion and solvency strain. Persistent negative equity undermines regulatory capital metrics, limits the ability to write new business or absorb losses, and constrains strategic options until capital is restored.

Large losses and declining revenue trends

A TTM net margin of -198.88% and 13.6% revenue decline reflect sustained underwriting and operating losses. Prolonged negative profitability erodes capital, strains reserves, and makes recovery dependent on continued reserve releases, asset dispositions, or structural improvement in underwriting economics.

Protracted PREPA legal and bondholder uncertainty

Broad bondholder opposition and active litigation create prolonged uncertainty around PREPA recoveries. That delays claim resolution, sustains reserve volatility and complicates capital planning, creating a lasting headwind to earnings stability and balance-sheet repair over multiple quarters.

MBIA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

MBIA Inc. provides financial guarantee insurance services to public finance markets. It operates through United States (U.S.) Public Finance Insurance, and International and Structured Finance Insurance segments. The company issues financial guarantees for municipal bonds, including tax-exempt and taxable indebtedness of the U.S. political subdivisions and territories, as well as utilities, airports, health care institutions, higher educational facilities, student loan issuers, housing authorities, and other similar agencies and obligations issued by private entities. It also insures the non-U.S. public finance and global structured finance, including asset-backed obligations; and sovereign-related and sub-sovereign bonds, utilities, and privately issued bonds used for the financing of projects that include toll roads, bridges, airports, public transportation facilities, and other types of infrastructure projects, as well as offers third-party reinsurance services. MBIA Inc. was founded in 1973 and is headquartered in Purchase, New York.

How the Company Makes Money

MBIA generates revenue primarily through the premiums collected from providing insurance on municipal bonds and structured finance transactions. The company earns underwriting fees when it guarantees the payment of principal and interest on bonds, which adds a layer of security for investors. Additionally, MBIA derives income from investment income on its portfolio of municipal bonds and other fixed income securities. The company's revenue is further supported by advisory services and risk management solutions offered to clients. Significant partnerships with financial institutions and municipalities also contribute to its earnings, as they rely on MBIA's insurance products to enhance the credit quality of their debt offerings.

MBIA Financial Statement Overview

Summary

MBIA faces significant financial challenges across all verticals. The income statement reflects ongoing losses and declining revenues, while the balance sheet shows high leverage and negative equity, indicating financial instability. Although there is some improvement in cash flow, the overall financial health of the company remains weak, with substantial risks and limited profitability.

Income Statement

The income statement reveals significant challenges, with negative net profit margins and declining revenue growth. The TTM data shows a net profit margin of -198.88%, indicating substantial losses. Revenue has decreased by 13.59% in the TTM period, reflecting a downward trend. The company struggles with profitability, as evidenced by negative EBIT and EBITDA margins.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet indicates financial instability, with a negative stockholders' equity and a high debt-to-equity ratio of -1.31 in the TTM period. This suggests high leverage and potential solvency issues. The return on equity is positive but low, reflecting minimal returns on shareholders' investments. Overall, the balance sheet highlights significant financial risk.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement shows some improvement, with a positive operating cash flow in the TTM period. However, the free cash flow growth rate is negative, and the operating cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.29, indicating limited cash generation relative to net losses. The company faces challenges in maintaining positive cash flow amidst ongoing losses.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	89.00M	42.00M	7.00M	154.00M	159.00M	282.00M
Gross Profit	106.00M	-146.00M	-175.00M	108.00M	-197.00M	-258.00M
EBITDA	-26.00M	-232.00M	-273.00M	32.00M	-264.00M	-350.00M
Net Income	-174.00M	-444.00M	-487.00M	-203.00M	-445.00M	-578.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.06B	2.17B	2.61B	3.38B	4.70B	5.75B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.57B	1.50B	107.00M	2.23B	2.69B	2.71B
Total Debt	3.35B	3.22B	3.16B	3.10B	3.21B	3.56B
Total Liabilities	4.23B	4.24B	4.25B	4.25B	5.00B	5.60B
Stockholders Equity	-2.18B	-2.09B	-1.66B	-882.00M	-313.00M	136.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	51.00M	-176.00M	-195.00M	-418.00M	510.00M	-390.00M
Operating Cash Flow	51.00M	-176.00M	-195.00M	-418.00M	511.00M	-390.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-29.00M	287.00M	767.00M	623.00M	-61.00M	1.74B
Financing Cash Flow	-27.00M	-132.00M	-542.00M	-285.00M	-457.00M	-1.26B

MBIA Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 7.60
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MBI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 7.6 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.24, above the 50-day MA of 7.31, and above the 200-day MA of 6.02, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -0.09 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.11 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 63.10 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MBI.

MBIA Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ITIC	80 Outperform	$479.04M	13.30	13.12%	4.20%	13.47%	26.15%
AGO	73 Outperform	$4.17B	11.03	7.06%	1.50%	7.56%	-38.23%
RDN	72 Outperform	$4.88B	8.90	12.56%	2.78%	-3.68%	3.65%
TRUP	69 Neutral	$1.56B	101.21	4.49%	―	12.50%	―
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
MBI	45 Neutral	$383.75M	-2.13	―	―	―	67.72%

MBIA Corporate Events

MBIA to Update Website with Q3 2025 Financials

On November 4, 2025, MBIA announced it will update its website with the third quarter 2025 financial information, including operating supplements and statutory statements for MBIA Insurance Corporation and National Public Finance Guarantee Corporation. Additionally, the company will provide details on its insured portfolios as of September 30, 2025. This update is expected to offer stakeholders comprehensive insights into MBIA’s financial health and portfolio status, potentially impacting investor perceptions and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (MBI) stock is a Hold with a $6.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MBIA stock, see the MBI Stock Forecast page.