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MBIA Inc (MBI)
NYSE:MBI
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MBIA
(NYSE:MBI)
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Rating:49Neutral
Price Target:
$7.50
▼(-0.66% Downside)
MBIA's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its weak financial performance, characterized by significant losses and financial instability. While technical indicators show positive momentum, the valuation remains unattractive due to negative earnings. The earnings call provided some positive developments, but ongoing challenges and uncertainties weigh heavily on the stock's prospects.
Positive Factors
Improved Adjusted Net Income
The significant improvement in adjusted net income indicates effective cost management and operational improvements, enhancing financial stability.
Positive Developments in PREPA Exposure
Reducing PREPA exposure decreases risk and potential liabilities, improving the company's financial outlook and resilience.
Increased Statutory Net Income for National
The increase in statutory net income reflects stronger financial performance, contributing to overall company health and investor confidence.
Negative Factors
Negative Book Value Per Share
A negative book value per share indicates financial distress, potentially limiting future investment and growth opportunities.
High Leverage and Financial Instability
High leverage and negative equity suggest potential solvency issues, posing risks to long-term financial health and operational capacity.
Regulatory and Legal Uncertainty
Ongoing legal and regulatory challenges create uncertainty, potentially delaying strategic initiatives and impacting financial performance.
MBIA (MBI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$342.31M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)337.94K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.95
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS Growth67.72%
CountryUS
Employees57
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.03
Shares Outstanding50,488,743
10 Day Avg. Volume273,402
30 Day Avg. Volume337,939
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.09
Price to Book (P/B)-0.15
Price to Sales (P/S)7.30
P/FCF Ratio-1.74
Enterprise Value/Market Cap10.83
Enterprise Value/Revenue41.64
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit34.96
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-142.54
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$7.75Price Target Upside2.65% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
MBIA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionMBIA Inc. provides financial guarantee insurance services to public finance markets. It operates through United States (U.S.) Public Finance Insurance, and International and Structured Finance Insurance segments. The company issues financial guarantees for municipal bonds, including tax-exempt and taxable indebtedness of the U.S. political subdivisions and territories, as well as utilities, airports, health care institutions, higher educational facilities, student loan issuers, housing authorities, and other similar agencies and obligations issued by private entities. It also insures the non-U.S. public finance and global structured finance, including asset-backed obligations; and sovereign-related and sub-sovereign bonds, utilities, and privately issued bonds used for the financing of projects that include toll roads, bridges, airports, public transportation facilities, and other types of infrastructure projects, as well as offers third-party reinsurance services. MBIA Inc. was founded in 1973 and is headquartered in Purchase, New York.
How the Company Makes MoneyMBIA generates revenue primarily through the premiums collected from providing insurance on municipal bonds and structured finance transactions. The company earns underwriting fees when it guarantees the payment of principal and interest on bonds, which adds a layer of security for investors. Additionally, MBIA derives income from investment income on its portfolio of municipal bonds and other fixed income securities. The company's revenue is further supported by advisory services and risk management solutions offered to clients. Significant partnerships with financial institutions and municipalities also contribute to its earnings, as they rely on MBIA's insurance products to enhance the credit quality of their debt offerings.
MBIA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Nov 04, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 26, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed outlook. Significant reductions in net losses and positive adjustments in National's PREPA exposure reflect strong financial management and strategic gains. However, MBIA Insurance Corp.'s financial challenges and ongoing legal and regulatory uncertainties related to PREPA represent considerable hurdles. The sentiment is balanced, with positive financial improvements countered by persistent challenges.Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Significant Reduction in Net Loss
The company recorded a consolidated GAAP net loss of $8 million for Q3 2025, a significant improvement from a $56 million net loss in Q3 2024.
National's Losses and LAE Benefit
National reported a net benefit of $54 million in losses and LAE for Q3 2025, compared to a loss of $2 million in Q3 2024, primarily due to adjustments in PREPA loss reserves.
Improved Adjusted Net Income
Adjusted net income was $51 million for Q3 2025, compared to an adjusted net loss of $174,000 for Q3 2024, mainly due to gains in National’s LAE benefit.
Increased Statutory Net Income for National
National reported statutory net income of $73 million for Q3 2025, up from $19 million in Q3 2024.
Positive Developments in PREPA Exposure
National's PREPA exposure reduced through the sale of $374 million of bankruptcy claims and higher estimated recoveries, now amounting to $425 million of gross par outstanding.
Negative Updates
MBIA Insurance Corp. Statutory Net Loss
MBIA Insurance Corp. reported a statutory net loss of $25 million for Q3 2025, compared with statutory net income of $2 million for Q3 2024, mainly due to lower expected recoveries from Zohar CDOs.
Negative Book Value Per Share
MBIA Inc.'s consolidated book value per share as of September 30, 2025, was a negative $43.17, largely due to MBIA Insurance Corp.'s negative book value per share of $52.64.
Challenges with PREPA Bondholder Consensus
Ongoing opposition to PREPA's proposed plan from bondholders representing approximately 90% of PREPA’s bondholders, delaying resolution.
Regulatory and Legal Uncertainty
Continued litigation and administrative changes regarding the Puerto Rico Financial Oversight and Management Board are causing delays in resolving PREPA exposure.
Company Guidance
During MBIA Inc.'s third quarter 2025 financial results conference call, the company reported a consolidated GAAP net loss of $8 million or a negative $0.17 per share, which was a significant improvement compared to a $56 million net loss in the same period of 2024. This improvement was largely attributed to a net benefit of $54 million in losses and loss adjustment expenses (LAE) related to National's PREPA exposure. National's leverage ratio of gross par to statutory capital was reported as 23:1, with claims paying resources of $1.5 billion and statutory capital and surplus of nearly $1 billion. Additionally, the company's adjusted net income, a non-GAAP measure, was $51 million or $1.03 per share, marking a favorable change from an adjusted net loss of $174,000 in the previous year. The call also highlighted the sale of $374 million of National's PREPA-related bankruptcy claims and noted a decline in National's insured portfolio by approximately $2.1 billion from year-end 2024, bringing it to about $23.2 billion as of September 30, 2025.MBIA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
MBIA faces significant financial challenges across all verticals. The income statement reflects ongoing losses and declining revenues, while the balance sheet shows high leverage and negative equity, indicating financial instability. Although there is some improvement in cash flow, the overall financial health of the company remains weak, with substantial risks and limited profitability.Income Statement
The income statement reveals significant challenges, with negative net profit margins and declining revenue growth. The TTM data shows a net profit margin of -198.88%, indicating substantial losses. Revenue has decreased by 13.59% in the TTM period, reflecting a downward trend. The company struggles with profitability, as evidenced by negative EBIT and EBITDA margins.25
Negative
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet indicates financial instability, with a negative stockholders' equity and a high debt-to-equity ratio of -1.31 in the TTM period. This suggests high leverage and potential solvency issues. The return on equity is positive but low, reflecting minimal returns on shareholders' investments. Overall, the balance sheet highlights significant financial risk.20
Very Negative
Cash Flow
The cash flow statement shows some improvement, with a positive operating cash flow in the TTM period. However, the free cash flow growth rate is negative, and the operating cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.29, indicating limited cash generation relative to net losses. The company faces challenges in maintaining positive cash flow amidst ongoing losses.30
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 89.00M | 42.00M | 7.00M | 154.00M | 159.00M | 282.00M |
| Gross Profit | 106.00M | -146.00M | -175.00M | 108.00M | -197.00M | -258.00M |
| EBITDA | -26.00M | -232.00M | -273.00M | 32.00M | -264.00M | -350.00M |
| Net Income | -174.00M | -444.00M | -487.00M | -203.00M | -445.00M | -578.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.06B | 2.17B | 2.61B | 3.38B | 4.70B | 5.75B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.57B | 1.50B | 107.00M | 2.23B | 2.69B | 2.71B |
| Total Debt | 3.35B | 3.22B | 3.16B | 3.10B | 3.21B | 3.56B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.23B | 4.24B | 4.25B | 4.25B | 5.00B | 5.60B |
| Stockholders Equity | -2.18B | -2.09B | -1.66B | -882.00M | -313.00M | 136.00M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 51.00M | -176.00M | -195.00M | -418.00M | 510.00M | -390.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 51.00M | -176.00M | -195.00M | -418.00M | 511.00M | -390.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -29.00M | 287.00M | 767.00M | 623.00M | -61.00M | 1.74B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -27.00M | -132.00M | -542.00M | -285.00M | -457.00M | -1.26B |
MBIA Technical Analysis
Positive
7.55
Price Trends
7.22
Positive
7.08
Positive
5.87
Positive
Market Momentum
0.07
Positive
53.03
Neutral
64.30
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MBI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 7.55 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.53, above the 50-day MA of 7.22, and above the 200-day MA of 5.87, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.07 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 53.03 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 64.30 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MBI.
MBIA Risk Analysis
MBIA disclosed 21 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. MBIA reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
MBIA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $468.29M | 13.05 | 13.12% | 4.21% | 13.47% | 26.15% | |
73 Outperform | $4.16B | 11.06 | 7.06% | 1.51% | 7.56% | -38.23% | |
69 Neutral | $1.60B | 102.38 | 4.49% | ― | 12.50% | ― | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
66 Neutral | $4.85B | 8.94 | 12.56% | 2.84% | -3.68% | 3.65% | |
49 Neutral | $342.31M | -1.48 | ― | ― | ― | 67.72% | |
48 Neutral | ― | ― | -4.14% | ― | -37.46% | -117.36% |
* Financial Sector Average
MBI
MBIA
7.55
1.15
17.97%
AGO
Assured Guaranty
90.22
1.37
1.54%
ITIC
Investors Title Company
250.56
-6.27
-2.44%
RDN
Radian Group
35.88
3.16
9.66%
AMBC
Ambac Financial
8.33
-5.22
-38.52%
TRUP
Trupanion
36.35
-17.80
-32.87%
MBIA Corporate Events
Financial Disclosures
MBIA to Update Website with Q3 2025 Financials
Neutral
Nov 4, 2025
On November 4, 2025, MBIA announced it will update its website with the third quarter 2025 financial information, including operating supplements and statutory statements for MBIA Insurance Corporation and National Public Finance Guarantee Corporation. Additionally, the company will provide details on its insured portfolios as of September 30, 2025. This update is expected to offer stakeholders comprehensive insights into MBIA’s financial health and portfolio status, potentially impacting investor perceptions and market positioning.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.