MBIA (MBI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $398.86M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 486.10K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.89
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: 66.83%
• Country: US
• Employees: 57
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 73
• Industry: Insurance - Specialty
• EPS (TTM): -0.17
• Shares Outstanding: 50,488,743
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 561,947
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 486,095
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 9.29
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 35.98
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 71.27
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -55.31
• 1Y Price Target: $7.50
• Price Target Upside: -7.06% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3

• Rating: 56 Neutral
• Price Target: $7.50 ▼(-7.06% Downside)

MBIA's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its poor financial performance, which raises concerns about its stability and liquidity. Technical analysis shows strong bullish momentum, but valuation metrics and mixed earnings call results highlight ongoing challenges.

MBIA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

MBIA Inc. provides financial guarantee insurance services to public finance markets. It operates through United States (U.S.) Public Finance Insurance, and International and Structured Finance Insurance segments. The company issues financial guarantees for municipal bonds, including tax-exempt and taxable indebtedness of the U.S. political subdivisions and territories, as well as utilities, airports, health care institutions, higher educational facilities, student loan issuers, housing authorities, and other similar agencies and obligations issued by private entities. It also insures the non-U.S. public finance and global structured finance, including asset-backed obligations; and sovereign-related and sub-sovereign bonds, utilities, and privately issued bonds used for the financing of projects that include toll roads, bridges, airports, public transportation facilities, and other types of infrastructure projects, as well as offers third-party reinsurance services. MBIA Inc. was founded in 1973 and is headquartered in Purchase, New York.

How the Company Makes Money

MBIA generates revenue primarily through the sale of insurance policies that enhance the credit quality of municipal and structured finance securities. The company's core revenue streams include premiums collected from policyholders, which are based on the amount of insurance provided and the credit risk associated with the underlying bonds. Additionally, MBIA earns investment income from its portfolio of fixed-income securities, which is bolstered by the premiums received. The company may also benefit from strategic partnerships with financial institutions and municipalities, enabling it to expand its client base and generate additional revenue through advisory services and risk management solutions. Overall, the combination of insurance premium income and investment returns forms the backbone of MBIA's revenue model.

MBIA Financial Statement Overview

Summary

MBIA is facing severe financial difficulties across all fronts. Persistent losses and negative cash flows, coupled with an unsustainable balance sheet, highlight significant financial instability. The company must address its debt and improve operational efficiency to stabilize its financial health.

Income Statement

The income statement shows a negative trajectory with declining revenue over recent years. The company has consistently negative EBIT and net income, reflecting poor profitability. The gross profit margin is misleadingly high due to negligible costs, but the net profit margin is deep in the negative, indicating significant losses.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is concerning, with negative stockholders' equity suggesting insolvency risk. The debt-to-equity ratio is negative due to negative equity, indicating an unsustainable capital structure. The equity ratio is also negative, highlighting that liabilities exceed assets significantly.

Cash Flow

Cash flow statements reflect operational struggles, with negative operating cash flow and free cash flow over several years. Although there was a slight improvement in operating cash flow from 2023 to 2024, it remains negative, indicating ongoing cash flow challenges.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	103.00M	42.00M	6.00M	150.00M	159.00M	282.00M
Gross Profit	52.00M	27.00M	6.00M	74.00M	-197.00M	190.00M
EBITDA	-67.00M	-441.00M	-273.00M	32.00M	-264.00M	-350.00M
Net Income	-225.00M	-447.00M	-491.00M	-195.00M	-445.00M	-578.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.13B	2.17B	2.61B	3.38B	4.70B	5.75B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.06B	1.01B	107.00M	2.23B	2.69B	2.71B
Total Debt	2.81B	2.74B	3.16B	3.10B	3.21B	3.56B
Total Liabilities	4.30B	4.24B	4.25B	4.25B	5.00B	5.60B
Stockholders Equity	-2.18B	-2.09B	-1.66B	-882.00M	-313.00M	136.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-178.00M	-176.00M	-195.00M	-418.00M	510.00M	-390.00M
Operating Cash Flow	-178.00M	-176.00M	-195.00M	-418.00M	511.00M	-390.00M
Investing Cash Flow	172.00M	287.00M	767.00M	623.00M	-61.00M	1.74B
Financing Cash Flow	-25.00M	-132.00M	-542.00M	-285.00M	-457.00M	-1.26B

MBIA Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 8.07
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MBI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 8.07 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.75, above the 50-day MA of 5.45, and above the 200-day MA of 5.55, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.74 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 80.81 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 93.70 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MBI.

MBIA Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ACT	84 Outperform	$5.62B	8.66	13.47%	2.07%	3.15%	5.70%
RDN	78 Outperform	$4.70B	8.74	13.07%	2.91%	0.24%	3.14%
MTG	75 Outperform	$6.42B	9.13	14.85%	1.95%	3.26%	12.70%
AGO	69 Neutral	$3.88B	8.86	8.38%	1.62%	5.89%	-27.45%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$17.89B	12.03	10.28%	3.73%	9.80%	1.66%
MBI	56 Neutral	$398.86M	―	26.69%	―	―	66.83%
AMBC	51 Neutral	$404.16M	64.08	-4.09%	―	-17.06%	-118.90%

MBIA Corporate Events

MBIA Sells $374 Million in Custodial Receipts

On August 14, 2025, National sold Custodial Receipts (CRs) representing bankruptcy claims in a transaction involving approximately $374 million face amount of CRs. This sale, which follows similar transactions in October 2021 and January 2022, reduces potential volatility and ongoing risk for National’s remaining PREPA exposure, as the Title III case remains uncertain.

MBIA to Release Q2 2025 Financial Statements

MBIA announced that it will release its Quarterly Operating Supplement and Quarterly Statements for the second quarter of 2025 on August 6, 2025. These documents, along with updates to the company’s insured portfolios and investor inquiries, will be made available on MBIA’s website, providing stakeholders with detailed insights into the company’s financial performance and insurance operations.