Radian Group (RDN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $4.38B
• Dividend Yield: 2.78%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.32M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 7.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.69
• Revenue Growth: -3.68%
• EPS Growth: 3.65%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,000
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Insurance - Specialty
• EPS (TTM): 1.16
• Shares Outstanding: 135,489,060
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,318,532
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,316,502
• PEG Ratio: 1.53
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.04
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.98
• P/FCF Ratio: 14.57
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.31
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.60
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.98
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 6.58
• 1Y Price Target: $42.33
• Price Target Upside: 23.52% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: $36.00 ▲(5.05% Upside)
• Action: Upgraded Date: 02/21/26
• Date: Action: Upgraded 02/21/26

The score is primarily driven by solid underlying financial performance (strong profitability and improving leverage, tempered by cash-flow volatility) and very attractive valuation (low P/E with a ~3.1% dividend). These positives are partially offset by weak technical signals (below key moving averages with negative MACD) and execution/visibility risks discussed on the earnings call around the Inigo integration, near-term liquidity reduction, and higher defaults.

Positive Factors

High Profitability & ROE

Radian’s underwriting yields and investment income produce persistently high net margins and a mid‑teens/low‑teens ROE profile, supporting durable earnings power. Strong margins cushion earnings through mortgage cycles and provide capacity for reserves, dividends, and opportunistic capital returns.

Solid Capital & Regulatory Cushion

A well‑above‑required PMIERs cushion and materially reduced leverage give Radian regulatory and financial flexibility. The capital buffer supports dividend flows from the insurer, reinsurance usage and targeted buybacks while lowering solvency risk across housing cycles.

Strategic Diversification via Inigo

Adding Inigo meaningfully diversifies Radian away from sole reliance on U.S. private mortgage insurance, creating multi-line underwriting capabilities and geographic reach. If integration preserves Inigo’s returns, the move should stabilize revenue cyclicality and improve long-term capital deployment options.

Negative Factors

Volatile Cash Generation

Radian’s free cash flow has been uneven: a sharp negative operating/free cash flow year in 2024 followed by a rebound in 2025 highlights inconsistent cash conversion. This volatility constrains reliable funding for dividends, buybacks and organic investment, increasing execution risk over the medium term.

Rising Defaults & Claim Inventory

An increasing default inventory and higher new defaults raise provisioning needs and potential claim severity. Persistent or worsening credit trends would erode underwriting margins and capital over time, making credit performance a key driver of medium‑term profitability and reserve adequacy.

Post‑Acquisition Liquidity & Integration Uncertainty

Funding the Inigo purchase materially reduced holding‑company liquidity, increasing near‑term reliance on subsidiary dividends and planned divestitures. Incomplete purchase accounting and integration tasks add earnings and amortization uncertainty, which can constrain capital actions until metrics and accounting are clarified.

Radian Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Radian Group Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the mortgage and real estate services business in the United States. Its Mortgage segment offers credit-related insurance coverage primarily through private mortgage insurance on residential first-lien mortgage loans, as well as other credit risk management, contract underwriting, and fulfillment solutions. This segment primarily serves mortgage originators, such as mortgage banks, commercial banks, savings institutions, credit unions, and community banks. The company's Homegenius segment offers title services, including a suite of insurance and non-insurance title, tax and title data, centralized recording, document retrieval and default curative title services, and deed and property reports, as well as closing and settlement services comprising electronic execution and traditional signing services; real estate valuation products and services; and asset management services, as well as a suite of real estate technology products and services to facilitate real estate transactions, such as software as a service solutions. This segment serves consumers, mortgage lenders, mortgage and real estate investors, government-sponsored enterprises, and real estate brokers and agents. The company was founded in 1977 and is headquartered in Wayne, Pennsylvania.

How the Company Makes Money

Radian Group generates revenue primarily through the sale of mortgage insurance premiums, which are collected from lenders who require coverage for loans with higher risk profiles. The company also earns income from its risk management services, which include analytics and consulting for mortgage lenders and investors. Additionally, Radian benefits from investment income derived from its portfolio of investments, which includes fixed-income securities. Significant partnerships with various financial institutions enhance Radian's market reach and contribute to its earnings, as these partnerships often lead to increased business volume and cross-selling opportunities.

Radian Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong profitability and a generally sound balance sheet (improving leverage) support the score, but it is held back by uneven revenue/earnings momentum and volatile cash flow, including a sharp negative year in 2024 and weaker cash conversion in 2025.

Income Statement

Profitability is a clear strength: net margins remain very high (roughly mid‑40% to low‑60% over the period) and operating profitability is consistently strong. However, growth has been uneven—revenue has been roughly flat over time with multiple down years (including 2025), and earnings peaked in 2022 and have trended lower since, indicating moderating momentum despite still-strong profitability.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks manageable and improving: debt relative to equity is moderate overall and materially lower in 2025 versus 2024, while equity has generally grown across the period. Returns on equity are solid but have cooled from the 2022 peak, suggesting profitability is still healthy but not as strong as it was a few years ago.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is the main swing factor. Free cash flow is positive in most years, but 2024 saw a sharp reversal with negative operating and free cash flow, followed by a rebound to positive free cash flow in 2025—creating volatility and limiting confidence in consistency. The 2025 cash conversion also appears weaker than earlier years based on the relatively low operating cash flow compared with earnings.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.25B	1.29B	1.24B	1.19B	1.33B
Gross Profit	1.15B	1.23B	1.22B	1.42B	1.18B
EBITDA	872.38M	953.78M	946.10M	1.11B	924.76M
Net Income	582.80M	604.44M	603.12M	742.93M	600.67M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	8.12B	8.66B	7.59B	7.06B	7.84B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	24.83M	5.64B	5.87B	5.48B	6.22B
Total Debt	1.11B	2.34B	1.58B	1.57B	1.56B
Total Liabilities	3.34B	4.04B	3.20B	3.14B	3.58B
Stockholders Equity	4.78B	4.62B	4.40B	3.92B	4.26B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	340.79M	-666.75M	513.15M	370.63M	544.51M
Operating Cash Flow	340.79M	-663.57M	529.43M	388.30M	557.11M
Investing Cash Flow	231.77M	327.75M	-300.84M	-5.17M	-1.86M
Financing Cash Flow	-568.44M	357.23M	-265.09M	-479.18M	-496.78M

Radian Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 34.27
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RDN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 34.27 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 32.98, above the 50-day MA of 34.18, and above the 200-day MA of 34.00, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -0.18 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.23 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 52.22 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for RDN.

Radian Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NMIH	82 Outperform	$3.02B	7.88	16.17%	―	8.86%	9.51%
ACT	82 Outperform	$6.11B	9.37	12.75%	2.02%	2.40%	1.18%
ESNT	76 Outperform	$5.92B	8.88	12.35%	1.88%	2.78%	-0.50%
RDN	70 Outperform	$4.38B	7.81	12.72%	2.78%	-3.68%	3.65%
AGO	70 Outperform	$4.01B	10.66	7.06%	1.50%	7.56%	-38.23%
MTG	68 Neutral	$5.99B	8.53	―	1.89%	2.20%	9.90%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%

Radian Group Corporate Events

Radian Group Announces Key Executive and Finance Leadership Changes

Effective February 12, 2026, Radian Group Inc. announced the departure of President and Chief Financial Officer Sumita Pandit, who will receive severance benefits tied to a qualifying termination, and elevated long-tenured finance executives to strengthen continuity. The board appointed Daniel Kobell as Senior Executive Vice President and interim Chief Financial Officer, and Robert J. Quigley as Senior Executive Vice President, Controller and Chief Accounting Officer, formalizing their leadership over the company’s finance, accounting, reporting, and control functions.

Also effective February 12, 2026, Radian restructured leadership of its core Mortgage Insurance business by naming veterans Meghan Bartholomew and Steve Keleher as Senior Executive Vice Presidents and Co-Heads of Mortgage Insurance. Bartholomew will oversee credit and counterparty risk, claims, and policy relationships, while Keleher will lead pricing, portfolio management, underwriting, and sales, signaling a commitment to experienced internal leadership to guide the company’s mortgage insurance strategy and risk management.

The most recent analyst rating on (RDN) stock is a Buy with a $42.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Radian Group stock, see the RDN Stock Forecast page.

Radian Group Expands Board with New Insurance Leader

On February 9, 2026, Radian Group Inc. announced that its board expanded from 11 to 12 members and appointed veteran insurance executive Seraina Macia as a director. The move underscores Radian’s push to bolster its board with deep global insurance and technology expertise as it advances its strategy as a global multi-line specialty insurer.

Macia brings more than 35 years of international insurance leadership, including senior roles at AIG, Zurich Insurance, XL and Swiss Re, and is expected to strengthen the board’s focus on innovation and technology-driven growth. On the same date, the company also disclosed that long-time director Gregory Serio, who has served since 2012, plans to retire at the end of his term in May 2026, marking a planned transition in board composition and governance.

The most recent analyst rating on (RDN) stock is a Hold with a $35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Radian Group stock, see the RDN Stock Forecast page.

Radian Group Completes Transformational Acquisition of Inigo Limited

On February 2, 2026, Radian Group and its subsidiary Radian US Holdings completed the previously announced acquisition of UK-based specialty insurer Inigo Limited for $1.67 billion in largely cash consideration, a price representing roughly 1.4 times Inigo’s estimated 2025 tangible equity, with a portion of management’s payout taken in Radian stock and $25 million of retention cash awards granted to Inigo’s senior team. The deal, funded from Radian’s available liquidity and excess capital at its mortgage insurance unit, transforms Radian from a primarily U.S. private mortgage insurer into a global, diversified multi-line specialty insurer, with Inigo operating as a standalone London-based business unit under its existing leadership and brand, and is expected to roughly double Radian’s annual revenue, optimize use of surplus capital and strengthen its competitive position across insurance cycles; in tandem, Radian amended its short-term incentive plan and adopted a UK sub-plan under its equity compensation program to integrate Inigo’s employees into its broader reward structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (RDN) stock is a Buy with a $35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Radian Group stock, see the RDN Stock Forecast page.

Radian Group Announces Planned Retirement of Longtime Board Member

Radian Group announced that board member Gregory Serio, who has served on the company’s Board of Directors since 2012, notified the company on January 21, 2026, that he will not stand for reelection at the 2026 annual meeting of stockholders and will retire from the Board at the end of his current term at that meeting. The company indicated that Serio’s decision was not the result of any disagreement over Radian’s operations, policies or practices, suggesting an orderly and non-contentious board transition for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (RDN) stock is a Buy with a $35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Radian Group stock, see the RDN Stock Forecast page.

Radian Group funds Inigo acquisition with intercompany note

On December 29, 2025, Radian Group Inc. entered into a $600 million, ten-year intercompany note with its wholly owned subsidiary Radian Guaranty Inc., bearing interest at 6.50% annually, to help fund the purchase price for its planned acquisition of U.K.-based Inigo Limited, which the company expects to close in February 2026, subject to customary conditions. The note, approved by the Pennsylvania Insurance Department, comes with enhanced regulatory reporting and liquidity protections, including a requirement that Radian prepay the note if Radian Guaranty needs funds to meet policyholder obligations, prior regulatory approval for all Radian Guaranty dividends for at least three years, and a minimum policyholders’ surplus of $500 million, underscoring tighter oversight as Radian pursues its expansion strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (RDN) stock is a Hold with a $41.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Radian Group stock, see the RDN Stock Forecast page.