Radian Group Inc. (RDN)
NYSE:RDN
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Radian Group
(NYSE:RDN)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$36.00
â–²(4.11% Upside)
Action:UpgradedDate:02/21/26
The score is primarily driven by solid underlying financial performance (strong profitability and improving leverage, tempered by cash-flow volatility) and very attractive valuation (low P/E with a ~3.1% dividend). These positives are partially offset by weak technical signals (below key moving averages with negative MACD) and execution/visibility risks discussed on the earnings call around the Inigo integration, near-term liquidity reduction, and higher defaults.
Positive Factors
High Profitability & ROE
Radian’s underwriting yields and investment income produce persistently high net margins and a mid‑teens/low‑teens ROE profile, supporting durable earnings power. Strong margins cushion earnings through mortgage cycles and provide capacity for reserves, dividends, and opportunistic capital returns.
Negative Factors
Volatile Cash Generation
Radian’s free cash flow has been uneven: a sharp negative operating/free cash flow year in 2024 followed by a rebound in 2025 highlights inconsistent cash conversion. This volatility constrains reliable funding for dividends, buybacks and organic investment, increasing execution risk over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High Profitability & ROE
Radian’s underwriting yields and investment income produce persistently high net margins and a mid‑teens/low‑teens ROE profile, supporting durable earnings power. Strong margins cushion earnings through mortgage cycles and provide capacity for reserves, dividends, and opportunistic capital returns.
Read all positive factors
Radian Group (RDN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.71B
Dividend Yield2.78%
Average Volume (3M)1.50M
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.5
Beta (1Y)0.68
Revenue Growth-3.68%
EPS Growth3.65%
CountryUS
Employees1,000
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.16
Shares Outstanding136,272,420
10 Day Avg. Volume818,922
30 Day Avg. Volume1,498,843
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.53
Price to Book (P/B)1.04
Price to Sales (P/S)3.98
P/FCF Ratio14.76
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.23
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.67
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.05
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.67
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$41.00Price Target Upside18.57% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)4.8
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.63B
Radian Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Radian Group Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the mortgage and real estate services business in the United States. Its Mortgage segment offers credit-related insurance coverage primarily through private mortgage insurance on reside...
How the Company Makes Money
Radian Group generates revenue primarily through the sale of mortgage insurance premiums, which are collected from lenders who require coverage for loans with higher risk profiles. The company also earns income from its risk management services, w...
Radian Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 18, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong core operating performance across mortgage insurance — record in‑force, higher NIW, stable premium yields, solid ROE, double‑digit book value growth, favorable credit reserve development and meaningful capital returns. Management also announced a transformative acquisition (Inigo) funded with internal liquidity that they expect to be accretive and to materially expand revenue and returns. Key near‑term risks discussed include an increased default inventory (seasonal/seasoning driven), a temporary reduction in holding company liquidity post‑acquisition and incomplete purchase accounting/integration items for Inigo which limit short‑term visibility. Overall, positive financial momentum and strategic progress outweigh the manageable near‑term challenges.Positive Updates
All‑time High Mortgage Insurance In‑Force
Mortgage insurance in‑force reached an all‑time high of $283 billion, up 3% year‑over‑year, supported by $55 billion of new insurance written (NIW) in 2025, a 6% increase versus 2024 (Q4 NIW $15.9 billion vs. $13.2 billion prior‑year quarter).
Negative Updates
Increase in Defaults and Higher Default Inventory
New defaults in Q4 were approximately 14,200 and total defaults rose to ~25,000 loans at quarter end, producing a portfolio default rate of 2.56% (increase driven by seasonal trends and seasoning of a large in‑force portfolio).
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
All‑time High Mortgage Insurance In‑Force
Mortgage insurance in‑force reached an all‑time high of $283 billion, up 3% year‑over‑year, supported by $55 billion of new insurance written (NIW) in 2025, a 6% increase versus 2024 (Q4 NIW $15.9 billion vs. $13.2 billion prior‑year quarter).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's guidance highlighted that the Inigo acquisition (purchase price ~$1.67B; estimated tangible equity ~$1.16B, ~1.4x tangible equity) should double annual revenues and be accretive to EPS and returns—Inigo is expected to earn mid‑teens returns through the cycle (Dan estimated roughly $170M pretax incremental income on $1.7B, implying north of 200 bps ROE accretion after tax)—and that Radian expects at least $600M of dividends from Radian Guaranty to Radian Group in 2026 (including $140M in Q1) to allow repayment of the $200M revolver draw and to rebuild holding‑company liquidity (holding company liquidity was $1.8B at year‑end pre‑close and ~ $350M post‑close); other guidance/targets include maintaining a PMIERs cushion of $1.6B, relying on reinsurance (an excess‑of‑loss agreement covering ~ $373M), keeping in‑force premium yield generally stable at ~38 bps, preserving strong persistency (Q4 persistency 82%), targeting leverage below 20% (18.3% YE), and potentially resuming opportunistic share repurchases as capital allows.Radian Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
76
Positive
Cash Flow
52
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.25B | 1.29B | 1.24B | 1.19B | 1.33B |
| Gross Profit | 1.15B | 1.23B | 1.22B | 1.42B | 1.18B |
| EBITDA | 872.38M | 953.78M | 946.10M | 1.11B | 924.76M |
| Net Income | 582.80M | 604.44M | 603.12M | 742.93M | 600.67M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 8.12B | 8.66B | 7.59B | 7.06B | 7.84B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 5.90B | 5.64B | 5.87B | 5.48B | 6.22B |
| Total Debt | 1.13B | 2.34B | 1.58B | 1.57B | 1.56B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.34B | 4.04B | 3.20B | 3.14B | 3.58B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.78B | 4.62B | 4.40B | 3.92B | 4.26B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 336.58M | -666.75M | 513.15M | 370.63M | 544.51M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 340.79M | -663.57M | 529.43M | 388.30M | 557.11M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 231.77M | 327.75M | -300.84M | -5.17M | -1.86M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -568.44M | 357.23M | -265.09M | -479.18M | -496.78M |
Radian Group Technical Analysis
Positive
34.58
Price Trends
33.38
Positive
34.09
Positive
34.07
Positive
Market Momentum
0.21
Negative
63.48
Neutral
87.03
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RDN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 34.58 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 33.23, above the 50-day MA of 33.38, and above the 200-day MA of 34.07, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.21 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.48 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.03 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for RDN.
Radian Group Risk Analysis
Radian Group disclosed 34 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Radian Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Radian Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
82 Outperform | $2.99B | 8.30 | 15.80% | ― | 8.86% | 9.51% | |
82 Outperform | $6.03B | 8.72 | 12.83% | 2.02% | 2.40% | 1.18% | |
76 Outperform | $5.82B | 9.33 | 12.35% | 1.88% | 2.78% | -0.50% | |
70 Outperform | $4.71B | 8.52 | 12.59% | 2.78% | -3.68% | 3.65% | |
69 Neutral | $3.75B | 8.74 | 8.92% | 1.50% | 7.56% | -38.23% | |
68 Neutral | $5.97B | 8.93 | 14.33% | 1.89% | 2.20% | 9.90% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
* Financial Sector Average
RDN
Radian Group
34.58
3.95
12.90%
AGO
Assured Guaranty
83.49
4.80
6.09%
MTG
MGIC Investment
27.76
5.05
22.21%
ESNT
Essent Group
61.53
8.48
15.99%
NMIH
NMI Holdings
39.33
6.10
18.36%
ACT
Enact Holdings
42.72
8.63
25.33%
Radian Group Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Radian Group Announces Key Executive and Finance Leadership Changes
Neutral
Feb 12, 2026
Effective February 12, 2026, Radian Group Inc. announced the departure of President and Chief Financial Officer Sumita Pandit, who will receive severance benefits tied to a qualifying termination, and elevated long-tenured finance executives to st...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Radian Group Expands Board with New Insurance Leader
Positive
Feb 9, 2026
On February 9, 2026, Radian Group Inc. announced that its board expanded from 11 to 12 members and appointed veteran insurance executive Seraina Macia as a director. The move underscores Radian’s push to bolster its board with deep global in...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Radian Group Completes Transformational Acquisition of Inigo Limited
Positive
Feb 3, 2026
On February 2, 2026, Radian Group and its subsidiary Radian US Holdings completed the previously announced acquisition of UK-based specialty insurer Inigo Limited for $1.67 billion in largely cash consideration, a price representing roughly 1.4 ti...
Executive/Board Changes
Radian Group Announces Planned Retirement of Longtime Board Member
Neutral
Jan 22, 2026
Radian Group announced that board member Gregory Serio, who has served on the company’s Board of Directors since 2012, notified the company on January 21, 2026, that he will not stand for reelection at the 2026 annual meeting of stockholders...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Radian Group funds Inigo acquisition with intercompany note
Positive
Dec 29, 2025
On December 29, 2025, Radian Group Inc. entered into a $600 million, ten-year intercompany note with its wholly owned subsidiary Radian Guaranty Inc., bearing interest at 6.50% annually, to help fund the purchase price for its planned acquisition ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.