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Radian Group
(NYSE:RDN)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$42.00
▲(18.74% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/28/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (strong profitability and improving leverage) and an attractive valuation (low P/E with a meaningful dividend). The latest earnings call supports the outlook through planned capital returns and deleveraging steps, while the main constraint is mixed technical momentum and the financial risk signal from historical cash-flow volatility.
Positive Factors
Rebounding Revenue & Profitability
A rebound to +11.9% TTM revenue growth alongside strong margins indicates the core mortgage and services businesses are regaining momentum. Durable revenue lift supports underwriting scale, stabilizes earnings through cycles, and underpins return-on-equity and capital deployment over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Cash‑Flow Volatility
Material swings in operating and free cash flow reduce predictability for dividends, buybacks and reserve funding. Volatility driven by reserve and working-capital timing can constrain strategic capital deployment, raise liquidity premiums and complicate near-term planning and refinancing strategies.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Rebounding Revenue & Profitability
A rebound to +11.9% TTM revenue growth alongside strong margins indicates the core mortgage and services businesses are regaining momentum. Durable revenue lift supports underwriting scale, stabilizes earnings through cycles, and underpins return-on-equity and capital deployment over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Radian Group (RDN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.05B
Dividend Yield2.78%
Average Volume (3M)1.25M
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.2
Beta (1Y)0.63
Revenue Growth7.69%
EPS Growth3.24%
CountryUS
Employees1,000
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.13
Shares Outstanding132,975,190
10 Day Avg. Volume1,315,611
30 Day Avg. Volume1,246,916
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.55
Price to Book (P/B)1.04
Price to Sales (P/S)3.98
P/FCF Ratio42.94
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.13
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.08
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.66
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.74
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$45.00Price Target Upside27.23% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)5.05
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.12B
Radian Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Operating across the United States, Radian Group Inc. and its various subsidiaries are key players in the mortgage and real estate services sector. Through its Mortgage segment, the company delivers crucial credit-related insurance, predominantly ...
How the Company Makes Money
Radian primarily makes money from its mortgage insurance business. (1) Insurance premiums: Radian earns premiums by insuring portions of residential mortgage credit risk for lenders and investors. For each insured loan, Radian receives premium rev...
Radian Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized multiple strong operating and financial outcomes — notably the successful acquisition of Inigo, substantial consolidated revenue growth (+58% YoY), higher adjusted EPS (+22% YoY), improved return on equity (+130 bps), book value growth (+10% YoY), robust mortgage portfolio metrics, and immediate capital returns (share repurchases and dividends). Challenges discussed were generally manageable and expected given the acquisition and market cycle: partial-period contribution from Inigo, a softening pricing environment in some specialty lines, some GAAP one-time impacts, rising claim severity trends to monitor, and short-term liquidity/leverage items (revolver outstanding and a 2027 debt maturity). Overall, positives and strategic advances materially outweigh the manageable risks and near-term items, supporting a constructive outlook for the combined company.Positive Updates
Strategic Acquisition of Inigo Completed
Closed acquisition of Inigo in early February for ~$1.7 billion, adding a complementary global specialty insurance franchise and providing immediate diversification across Mortgage and Specialty insurance businesses; Inigo contributed two months of results in Q1 and management described performance as consistent with expectations.
Negative Updates
Inigo Contribution Was Only Partial-Quarter
Inigo's results included only two months (Feb–Mar) in the quarter, limiting the baseline for full-quarter performance comparisons and leaving some uncertainty around full-year cadence and seasonality.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strategic Acquisition of Inigo Completed
Closed acquisition of Inigo in early February for ~$1.7 billion, adding a complementary global specialty insurance franchise and providing immediate diversification across Mortgage and Specialty insurance businesses; Inigo contributed two months of results in Q1 and management described performance as consistent with expectations.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Radian's guidance focused on capital deployment and liquidity: management expects at least $600 million of dividends from Radian Guaranty to Radian Group in 2026 (including the $140 million already paid in Q1), expects to repay the $150 million outstanding on the $200 million revolver and retire that borrowing in full during 2026, and projects holding‑company leverage of 20.2% at quarter end falling to below 20% by year‑end 2026 with holding‑company liquidity of $391 million; they estimate $200–$250 million of excess capital could be available for opportunistic share repurchases for the full year (having repurchased $115 million / 3.3 million shares through April, including $50 million / 1.5 million shares in Q1), paid a $35 million shareholder dividend in Q1, maintain a $1.6 billion PMIERs cushion, expect to complete divestitures by end‑Q3 (entities held for sale now carry $61 million after returning $108 million since the program began), and currently plan to refinance the roughly $450 million senior note due March 2027.Radian Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.40B | 1.25B | 1.29B | 1.24B | 1.19B | 1.33B |
| Gross Profit | 1.22B | 1.15B | 1.23B | 1.22B | 1.42B | 1.18B |
| EBITDA | 845.23M | 872.38M | 953.78M | 946.10M | 1.11B | 924.76M |
| Net Income | 562.33M | 582.80M | 604.44M | 603.12M | 742.93M | 600.67M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 10.30B | 8.12B | 8.66B | 7.59B | 7.06B | 7.84B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 87.98M | 5.90B | 5.64B | 5.87B | 5.48B | 6.22B |
| Total Debt | 1.15B | 1.13B | 2.34B | 1.58B | 1.57B | 1.56B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.49B | 3.34B | 4.04B | 3.20B | 3.14B | 3.58B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.81B | 4.78B | 4.62B | 4.40B | 3.92B | 4.26B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 333.21M | 115.66M | -666.75M | 513.15M | 370.63M | 544.51M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 337.07M | 119.86M | -663.57M | 529.43M | 388.30M | 557.11M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -159.58M | 127.29M | 327.75M | -300.84M | -5.17M | -1.86M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -111.34M | -243.10M | 357.23M | -265.09M | -479.18M | -496.78M |
Radian Group Technical Analysis
Positive
35.37
Price Trends
35.72
Positive
34.57
Positive
34.35
Positive
Market Momentum
0.74
Negative
69.78
Neutral
91.15
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RDN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 35.37 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 35.55, below the 50-day MA of 35.72, and above the 200-day MA of 34.35, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.74 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 69.78 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 91.15 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for RDN.
Radian Group Risk Analysis
Radian Group disclosed 34 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Radian Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Radian Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
85 Outperform | $5.98B | 9.15 | 12.01% | 1.88% | 1.34% | 2.64% | |
80 Outperform | $6.33B | 9.77 | 12.74% | 2.02% | 1.98% | 3.55% | |
76 Outperform | $5.97B | 8.96 | 14.00% | 1.89% | -1.24% | 4.62% | |
76 Outperform | $3.12B | 8.21 | 0.06% | ― | 7.29% | 6.16% | |
72 Outperform | $5.05B | 9.19 | 12.01% | 2.78% | 7.69% | 3.24% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
65 Neutral | $3.71B | 9.76 | 7.38% | 1.50% | 2.70% | 3.06% |
* Financial Sector Average
RDN
Radian Group
37.94
3.29
9.48%
AGO
Assured Guaranty
83.67
0.29
0.35%
MTG
MGIC Investment
28.23
1.41
5.28%
ESNT
Essent Group
64.85
6.30
10.77%
NMIH
NMI Holdings
41.04
-0.15
-0.36%
ACT
Enact Holdings
45.34
8.79
24.03%
Radian Group Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Radian Stockholders Approve 2026 Equity and Governance Changes
Positive
May 27, 2026
On May 21, 2026, Radian stockholders approved the 2026 Equity Compensation Plan and the board’s Compensation and Human Capital Management Committee granted 2026 long-term incentive awards to executive officers, heavily weighted toward perfor...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Radian Group Announces CEO Transition and Leadership Succession
Positive
May 22, 2026
Radian Group Inc. has initiated a planned leadership transition, appointing veteran mortgage and consumer lending executive Michael Weinbach as CEO-elect effective June 1, 2026, with his promotion to chief executive officer and board member set fo...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Radian Group Announces Retirement of Chief Digital Officer
Neutral
Apr 21, 2026
Radian Group Inc. reported that Eric R. Ray, its Senior Executive Vice President and Chief Digital Officer, notified the company on April 20, 2026, of his decision to retire. His retirement from both the role and the company will be effective July...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.