Essent Group (ESNT)
NYSE:ESNT
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Essent Group
(NYSE:ESNT)
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Rating:85Outperform
Price Target:
$74.00
▲(19.26% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (high profitability, low leverage, and robust cash generation) and a very attractive valuation (low P/E with a solid dividend). Technical indicators are supportive but not strongly bullish, and the earnings call was constructive on capital strength and shareholder returns, tempered by expected seasoning-driven defaults and some near-term expense and P&C margin headwinds.
Positive Factors
Conservative balance sheet and capital
Very low leverage, rising equity (≈$4.24B in 2021 to ~$5.76B in 2025) and strong statutory cushions provide durable regulatory and rating resilience. This capital depth supports underwriting capacity, cushions losses from portfolio seasoning, and enables sustained dividends and buybacks under stress.
Negative Factors
Seasoning-driven default pressure
As loans season, rising defaults are expected and will increase loss provisioning and earnings volatility. Over the next 2–6 months this can compress underwriting margins, increase reserve funding needs, and require capital absorption if cures fall or home prices weaken, stressing profitability.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Conservative balance sheet and capital
Very low leverage, rising equity (≈$4.24B in 2021 to ~$5.76B in 2025) and strong statutory cushions provide durable regulatory and rating resilience. This capital depth supports underwriting capacity, cushions losses from portfolio seasoning, and enables sustained dividends and buybacks under stress.
Read all positive factors
Essent Group (ESNT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.72B
Dividend Yield1.88%
Average Volume (3M)636.98K
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.0
Beta (1Y)0.58
Revenue Growth1.34%
EPS Growth2.64%
CountryUS
Employees555
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)7.09
Shares Outstanding92,152,860
10 Day Avg. Volume547,682
30 Day Avg. Volume636,983
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio12.91
Price to Book (P/B)1.12
Price to Sales (P/S)5.10
P/FCF Ratio7.58
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.06
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.72
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.42
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.07
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$64.75Price Target Upside4.35% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)7.07
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.22B
Essent Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Essent Group Ltd., through its subsidiaries, provides private mortgage insurance and reinsurance for mortgages secured by residential properties located in the United States. Its mortgage insurance products include primary, pool, and master policy...
How the Company Makes Money
Essent primarily makes money by collecting insurance premiums for providing private mortgage insurance (PMI) on residential mortgage loans. Its core revenue stream is net premiums earned: lenders (and ultimately borrowers) pay premiums—either mont...
Essent Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a generally positive outlook anchored by strong capital, liquidity, and credit metrics (robust PMIERs sufficiency, $6.6B cash and investments, $5.7B GAAP equity), solid per-share earnings, active capital returns (repurchases and a $0.35 dividend), and strategic reinsurance diversification that positions the company for longer-term growth. Offsetting items include portfolio seasoning that is driving higher defaults (expected to continue), a slight decline in persistency, near-term immaterial earnings contribution from new P&C activities and higher P&C combined ratios, and rate-sensitive title results tied to origination recovery. On balance, the positive items (capital strength, earnings, returns, and strategic initiatives) outweigh the near-term operational and market headwinds.Positive Updates
Mortgage Insurance in Force Growth
Insurance in force of $247.9 billion at March 31, 2026, essentially flat vs Dec 31, 2025 and up $3.2 billion (1.3%) versus March 31, 2025; supports franchise scale and market presence.
Negative Updates
Persistency Slightly Declined
Twelve-month persistency fell to 84.7% at March 31, 2026 from 85.7% at December 31, 2025 (down 1.0 percentage point), reflecting the rate environment and elevated note-rate composition of the book.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Mortgage Insurance in Force Growth
Insurance in force of $247.9 billion at March 31, 2026, essentially flat vs Dec 31, 2025 and up $3.2 billion (1.3%) versus March 31, 2025; supports franchise scale and market presence.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management’s guidance emphasized measured, diversified capital deployment and continued portfolio stability: the board approved a $0.35 common dividend for 2026, management repurchased ~3.5 million shares YTD for >$200M (2.6M/$157M in Q1; 934k/$57M in April), and holding‑company liquidity includes $6.6B of cash & investments (with $1.1B at holding companies) plus $500M undrawn revolver; trailing‑12‑month operating cash flow was $827M and GAAP equity stood at $5.7B. They expect Essent Re to write ~ $120M of Lloyd’s premium in 2026 on a $50M deposit and ~ $200M from a whole‑account quota share, with P&C combined ratios in the mid‑ to high‑90s and only an immaterial near‑term earnings impact but longer‑term accretion; on the MI side insurance in force was $247.9B (≈+1% YoY), 12‑month persistency 84.7%, avg FICO 747, avg original LTV 93%, default rate ~2.54%, MI net premium earned $216M, average base premium 41 bps/average net premium 35 bps, MI loss provision $37.6M, MI operating expenses $37.6M (expense ratio 17.4%), PMIERs sufficiency 174% with $1.6B excess available assets, Q1 aggregate yield 4.2% and new‑money yields ≈5%.Essent Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
90
Very Positive
Cash Flow
86
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.29B | 1.26B | 1.27B | 1.13B | 1.02B | 1.03B |
| Gross Profit | 1.12B | 1.11B | 1.19B | 1.10B | 1.19B | 997.45M |
| EBITDA | 859.38M | 859.79M | 896.59M | 857.66M | 1.01B | 833.98M |
| Net Income | 686.34M | 689.97M | 729.40M | 696.39M | 831.35M | 681.78M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 7.57B | 7.44B | 7.11B | 6.43B | 5.72B | 5.72B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 6.18B | 6.23B | 6.01B | 141.79M | 333.27M | 5.04B |
| Total Debt | 495.64M | 495.30M | 493.96M | 421.92M | 420.86M | 419.82M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.87B | 1.68B | 1.51B | 1.32B | 1.26B | 1.49B |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.70B | 5.76B | 5.60B | 5.10B | 4.46B | 4.24B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 818.57M | 848.69M | 854.77M | 759.00M | 584.84M | 706.76M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 826.53M | 856.05M | 861.53M | 763.00M | 588.82M | 709.26M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -193.69M | -154.74M | -706.93M | -525.57M | -398.87M | -583.17M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -712.64M | -709.75M | -164.91M | -176.88M | -190.20M | -147.43M |
Essent Group Technical Analysis
Positive
62.05
Price Trends
60.37
Positive
61.17
Positive
61.36
Positive
Market Momentum
0.03
Positive
53.65
Neutral
50.89
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ESNT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 62.05 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 61.78, above the 50-day MA of 60.37, and above the 200-day MA of 61.36, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 53.65 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.89 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ESNT.
Essent Group Risk Analysis
Essent Group disclosed 51 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Essent Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Essent Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
85 Outperform | $5.72B | 7.98 | 12.01% | 1.88% | 1.34% | 2.64% | |
80 Outperform | $6.06B | 8.61 | 12.74% | 2.02% | 1.98% | 3.55% | |
77 Outperform | $5.00B | 9.13 | 12.01% | 2.78% | 7.69% | 3.24% | |
76 Outperform | $5.57B | 8.58 | 14.00% | 1.89% | -1.24% | 4.62% | |
76 Outperform | $2.91B | 7.19 | 0.06% | ― | 7.29% | 6.16% | |
73 Outperform | $6.95B | 12.41 | 12.56% | 3.58% | 27.63% | 328.74% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
* Financial Sector Average
ESNT
Essent Group
61.90
5.31
9.38%
FAF
First American Financial
67.84
14.30
26.71%
MTG
MGIC Investment
26.17
0.62
2.41%
RDN
Radian Group
37.21
4.53
13.87%
NMIH
NMI Holdings
37.76
-0.01
-0.03%
ACT
Enact Holdings
43.40
8.63
24.84%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.