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Ambac Financial Group (AMBC)
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Ambac Financial (AMBC) AI Stock Analysis

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AMBC

Ambac Financial

(NYSE:AMBC)

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Neutral 58 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
$10.50
▲(16.28% Upside)
Ambac Financial's overall score is driven by significant financial challenges and a negative valuation outlook. Positive technical indicators and strategic initiatives from the earnings call provide some optimism, but financial instability remains a major concern.

Ambac Financial (AMBC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Ambac Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAmbac Financial Group, Inc. (AMBC) is a financial services holding company primarily focused on the municipal bond insurance industry. The company provides financial guarantees and credit enhancement to a diverse range of public sector transactions, including municipal bonds, structured finance, and other debt obligations. Ambac operates mainly in the United States but also engages in international markets, offering products and services designed to enhance the credit quality of issuers and facilitate their access to capital markets.
How the Company Makes MoneyAmbac Financial generates revenue primarily through the issuance of financial guarantees and credit enhancements for municipal bonds and structured finance products. The company collects premiums from issuers for providing these guarantees, which are based on the risk associated with the underlying debt. Additionally, Ambac earns income from investment income generated from its own portfolio of investments, which include fixed-income securities. The company may also receive fees for advisory services and asset management. Partnerships with municipalities and financial institutions further bolster its revenue streams, as these relationships help Ambac to secure a steady flow of business in both the public and private sectors.

Ambac Financial Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 10, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a transformative period for Octave Specialty Group, with significant achievements in rebranding, capital management, and organic growth initiatives. However, the net loss, increased loss ratios, and adjusted EBITDA loss indicate ongoing financial challenges. While the highlights of strategic progress are notable, the financial setbacks present a balanced view.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Launch of Octave Specialty Group
The company announced its transformation into Octave Specialty Group, a pure-play specialty P&C insurance company, marking a major milestone in its strategic vision.
Share Repurchase and Capital Management
Octave completed repurchases totaling 3,100,000 shares, equivalent to 6.5% of weighted average shares outstanding, as part of its capital management plan.
Successful Sale of Legacy Business
Octave successfully sold its legacy financial guarantee business to Oaktree for $420 million.
Organic Growth Initiatives
The company launched new professional lines MGAs and converted an investment in a recently launched MGA to a majority stake, contributing to strong organic growth.
Insurance Distribution Segment Revenue Growth
The insurance distribution segment saw an 80% increase in revenue compared to 2024, driven by 40% organic growth.
Expense Reductions
Material corporate expense reductions were undertaken, resulting in over a $10 million decrease in run rate adjusted corporate expenses.
Negative Updates
Net Loss from Continuing Operations
Octave reported a net loss from continuing operations of $32 million, which was higher than the $18 million loss reported in 2024.
Increased Loss Ratio in Everspan
Everspan's loss ratio increased to 84.5% in 2025 from 74.4% in 2024, due to adverse development in runoff commercial auto programs.
Reduced Everspan Premiums
Net written and net earned premium in Everspan were down from $33 million and $27 million, respectively, in 2024 to $18 million and $17 million.
Adjusted EBITDA Loss
Adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations was a loss of $3 million compared to a gain of less than $2 million in 2024.
Company Guidance
During the Octave Specialty Group's third-quarter 2025 earnings call, comprehensive guidance was provided, highlighting several key metrics and strategic initiatives. The company announced the successful launch of the new corporate brand, Octave Specialty Group, and executed a capital management plan that included repurchasing 3.1 million shares, equivalent to 6.5% of the weighted average shares outstanding. They achieved over $10 million in corporate expense reductions and completed the sale of their legacy financial guarantee business for $420 million. Additionally, they announced significant acquisitions, including ArmadaCare, and launched three new MGA startups. Organic growth initiatives were emphasized, with the insurance distribution segment experiencing an 80% revenue increase and a 40% organic growth rate, while adjusted EBITDA for the segment grew by 183% to $6 million. Everspan's net premiums saw a decline due to strategic nonrenewals, with an 84.5% loss ratio reported. The company's strategy includes a continued focus on organic growth, expense reduction with a target of $30 million in adjusted expenses for 2026, and disciplined capital allocation to support startups, share repurchases, and technology investments, aiming for robust performance in 2026 and beyond.

Ambac Financial Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Ambac Financial is facing significant financial challenges, with a dramatic net loss and declining revenues. The elimination of debt is a positive step, but the low equity ratio and poor cash flow metrics highlight vulnerabilities.
Income Statement
30
Negative
Ambac Financial's income statement reveals significant challenges. The company experienced a dramatic net loss in 2024, with a negative net profit margin of -235.9%, down from a modest profit in 2023. Revenue growth has been erratic, with a decrease of 12.3% in 2024 following a decline from 2022 to 2023. The absence of EBIT and EBITDA in 2024 further highlights operational difficulties.
Balance Sheet
45
Neutral
The balance sheet shows a decrease in stockholders' equity, reducing from $1.36 billion in 2023 to $379 million in 2024, indicating a weakened equity position. However, the company has removed its debt obligations, improving its debt-to-equity ratio from high levels in previous years. Despite this, the equity ratio is relatively low at 6.1%, suggesting potential financial instability.
Cash Flow
35
Negative
Cash flow analysis shows a sharp decline in operating cash flow from $200 million in 2023 to $762,000 in 2024, illustrating cash generation issues. The free cash flow has also deteriorated, reflected in a negligible free cash flow growth rate. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is unfavorable, reflecting poor cash conversion efficiency.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue99.13M235.81M124.73M53.61M247.00M156.00M
Gross Profit-16.86M98.65M47.99M24.36M319.00M-69.00M
EBITDA-141.81M-30.52M-18.99M-31.91M246.00M-160.00M
Net Income-780.16M-556.45M3.63M521.25M-17.00M-437.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets2.15B8.06B8.43B7.97B12.30B13.22B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments478.69M331.90M354.96M1.93B1.85B2.83B
Total Debt0.00150.00M3.48B3.75B6.45B7.23B
Total Liabilities1.00B6.86B7.00B6.65B11.19B12.07B
Stockholders Equity843.38M856.91M1.36B1.25B1.04B1.08B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-34.95M762.00K200.00M70.37M-131.00M-353.00M
Operating Cash Flow-34.95M762.00K200.00M70.37M-131.00M-175.00M
Investing Cash Flow112.78M-166.37M435.00M-41.16M776.00M432.00M
Financing Cash Flow-78.88M194.22M-423.00M-19.23M-657.00M-303.00M

Ambac Financial Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price9.03
Price Trends
50DMA
8.75
Positive
100DMA
8.51
Positive
200DMA
8.46
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.20
Negative
RSI
53.02
Neutral
STOCH
42.81
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AMBC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 9.03 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.79, above the 50-day MA of 8.75, and above the 200-day MA of 8.46, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.20 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.02 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 42.81 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AMBC.

Ambac Financial Risk Analysis

Ambac Financial disclosed 53 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ambac Financial reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Ambac Financial Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
$6.22B8.9414.40%2.01%2.20%9.90%
73
Outperform
$6.10B9.0212.35%1.99%2.78%-0.50%
73
Outperform
$4.03B10.727.06%1.54%7.56%-38.23%
68
Neutral
$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
66
Neutral
$4.68B8.6112.56%2.86%-3.68%3.65%
58
Neutral
$395.62M-4.14%-37.46%-117.36%
49
Neutral
$342.31M-1.4867.72%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AMBC
Ambac Financial
8.69
-3.62
-29.41%
AGO
Assured Guaranty
88.05
-2.31
-2.55%
MBI
MBIA
7.41
0.83
12.61%
MTG
MGIC Investment
28.00
3.55
14.52%
RDN
Radian Group
34.94
1.91
5.78%
ESNT
Essent Group
61.61
6.84
12.49%

Ambac Financial Corporate Events

Ambac Financial Group Reports Q3 2025 Results
Nov 12, 2025

Ambac Financial Group, Inc. is an insurance holding company that operates in the specialty property and casualty insurance sector, offering a diverse range of insurance underwriting and distribution services in the U.S. and U.K. The company is publicly traded on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol AMBC.

Octave Specialty Group’s Transformative Earnings Call Highlights
Nov 12, 2025

The recent earnings call for Octave Specialty Group, formerly known as Ambac Financial Group, highlighted a transformative phase for the company. While there were significant achievements in rebranding, capital management, and organic growth initiatives, the financial challenges such as net loss, increased loss ratios, and adjusted EBITDA loss were also evident. This presents a balanced view of strategic progress against ongoing financial hurdles.

Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing Changes
Ambac Financial Rebrands to Octave Specialty Group
Positive
Nov 10, 2025

On November 10, 2025, Ambac Financial Group, Inc. announced its rebranding to Octave Specialty Group, Inc., marking a significant shift in its strategic focus towards becoming a leading specialty insurance platform. This rebranding follows the sale of its legacy financial guarantee business and reflects its commitment to acquiring and building high-performing managing general agency businesses in the U.S., U.K., and Bermuda. The company will trade under the new ticker symbol ‘NYSE: OSG’ starting November 20, 2025. The rebrand includes a new identity for its divisions, with Cirrata Group becoming Octave Partners and Beat Capital Partners becoming Octave Ventures, while maintaining existing brands for its MGAs and hybrid fronting carrier, Everspan Group. The new brand identity symbolizes Octave’s dedication to innovation, collaboration, and performance, aiming to create long-term shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (AMBC) stock is a Hold with a $8.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ambac Financial stock, see the AMBC Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Ambac Financial Completes Acquisition of ArmadaCorp Capital
Positive
Nov 3, 2025

On October 31, 2025, Ambac Financial Group completed its acquisition of ArmadaCorp Capital, LLC, a subsidiary of Sirius Acquisitions Holding Company, for approximately $250 million. The acquisition was funded through a combination of a $100 million term loan, $20 million from a revolving credit facility, and cash on hand. This strategic move is expected to strengthen Ambac’s financial profile and diversify its distribution platform, with ArmadaCare continuing to operate as a wholly owned subsidiary under its existing management.

The most recent analyst rating on (AMBC) stock is a Hold with a $8.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ambac Financial stock, see the AMBC Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesM&A Transactions
Ambac Financial Accelerates Vesting After Assurance Sale
Neutral
Sep 30, 2025

On September 30, 2025, Ambac Financial Group, Inc. accelerated the vesting of performance stock unit awards for its top executives following the sale of Ambac Assurance Corporation on September 29, 2025. The acceleration was due to the completion of legacy business activities tied to the sale, resulting in 368,313 PSUs vesting for CEO Claude LeBlanc, 89,071 for CFO David Trick, and 79,441 for COO R. Sharon Smith.

The most recent analyst rating on (AMBC) stock is a Buy with a $15.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ambac Financial stock, see the AMBC Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Ambac Financial to Acquire ArmadaCare for $250 Million
Positive
Sep 29, 2025

On September 29, 2025, Ambac Financial Group announced its agreement to acquire ArmadaCare, a leading supplemental health insurance program manager, for $250 million from SiriusPoint Ltd. This acquisition is expected to significantly enhance Ambac’s market position, accelerate its growth trajectory, and strengthen its specialty insurance distribution strategy. The transaction is anticipated to close in the fourth quarter of 2025, subject to customary closing conditions. Ambac plans to finance the acquisition through cash on hand and newly issued debt, including a $120 million commitment from Truist Bank. The acquisition is expected to be accretive to Ambac shareholders by 2026, enhancing the company’s financial profile and offering substantial revenue synergy opportunities.

The most recent analyst rating on (AMBC) stock is a Hold with a $9.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ambac Financial stock, see the AMBC Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board Changes
Ambac Financial Announces New Executive Employment Agreements
Neutral
Sep 29, 2025

On September 29, 2025, Ambac Financial Group, Inc. entered into new employment agreements with key executives, including Claude LeBlanc, David Trick, and R. Sharon Smith, to continue their roles within the company. These agreements include provisions for base salaries, bonuses, and special awards, with conditions for termination and non-renewal outlined. Additionally, the company announced leadership changes following the resignation of Daniel McGinnis and Stephen M. Ksenak, with R. Sharon Smith and Lawrence F. Metz assuming new roles. The company also appointed Cristina Ahn as Chief Accounting Officer following the sale of Ambac Assurance Corporation.

The most recent analyst rating on (AMBC) stock is a Hold with a $9.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ambac Financial stock, see the AMBC Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Ambac Financial Completes Sale of Legacy Businesses
Positive
Sep 29, 2025

On September 29, 2025, Ambac Financial Group completed the sale of its legacy financial guarantee businesses, Ambac Assurance Corporation and Ambac Assurance UK Limited, to Oaktree Capital Management for $420 million in cash. This transaction marks a strategic transformation for Ambac, allowing it to focus on becoming a pure-play MGA and specialty insurance platform, which is expected to drive long-term growth and value creation.

The most recent analyst rating on (AMBC) stock is a Hold with a $9.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ambac Financial stock, see the AMBC Stock Forecast page.

Ambac Financial Group’s Earnings Call: Growth Amid Challenges
Aug 13, 2025

Despite Ambac Financial Group’s robust growth in premiums and revenue, the recent earnings call painted a mixed picture, balancing positive strides with significant financial challenges. The company showcased strong operational performance, yet faced notable financial losses and increased expenses, reflecting a complex financial landscape.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 12, 2025