Trupanion (TRUP)
NASDAQ:TRUP
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Trupanion
(NASDAQ:TRUP)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$26.00
▲(1.29% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/14/26
The score is driven mainly by a clear 2025 financial improvement and constructive 2026 guidance (profitability, cash flow, and growth outlook). These positives are meaningfully offset by weak technical momentum and a demanding valuation (high P/E with no dividend support).
Positive Factors
Subscription Scale & Pet Count Growth
Consistent subscription growth and a >1M pet base underpin predictable recurring revenue and unit economics. A large, growing pool of enrolled pets strengthens renewal momentum, widens distribution via veterinary channels, and supports durable revenue compounding over multiple years.
Negative Factors
Thin, Historically Volatile Profitability
Although 2025 returned to profitability, net margins remain thin and past years show multi-year losses. This limited profit cushion raises sensitivity to underwriting cost shocks, vet inflation, or marketing spend, making sustained net income dependent on consistent pricing and retention.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Subscription Scale & Pet Count Growth
Consistent subscription growth and a >1M pet base underpin predictable recurring revenue and unit economics. A large, growing pool of enrolled pets strengthens renewal momentum, widens distribution via veterinary channels, and supports durable revenue compounding over multiple years.
Read all positive factors
Trupanion (TRUP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.11B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)386.58K
Price to Earnings (P/E)82.6
Beta (1Y)1.31
Revenue Growth12.50%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees1,130
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.13
Shares Outstanding43,430,170
10 Day Avg. Volume287,817
30 Day Avg. Volume386,581
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.28
Price to Book (P/B)4.18
Price to Sales (P/S)1.12
P/FCF Ratio21.30
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.98
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.76
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.90
Enterprise Value/Ebitda21.16
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$43.25Price Target Upside68.48% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)0.49
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.58B
Trupanion Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Trupanion, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides medical insurance for cats and dogs on a monthly subscription basis in the United States, Canada, Puerto Rico, and Australia. The company operates in two segments, Subscription Business and...
How the Company Makes Money
Trupanion primarily makes money by collecting recurring premiums from pet owners (monthly subscription-style payments) for its cat and dog insurance policies. Revenue is recognized as earned premiums over the coverage period, while the company pay...
Trupanion Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Pets Enrolled
Tracks the number of pets covered by Trupanion's insurance plans, indicating market penetration, customer growth, and potential for future revenue.
Tracks the number of pets covered by Trupanion's insurance plans, indicating market penetration, customer growth, and potential for future revenue.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyTrupanion Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted a strong, record 2025 with meaningful margin expansion, robust free cash flow growth, improved retention and accelerating new-pet acquisition — and it included constructive 2026 guidance. Key challenges were higher CAC, a sequential decline in quarterly IRR, continued deceleration of the lower-margin 'other business' segment, and a small adverse reserve development and goodwill impairment. On balance, the positives around revenue growth, AOI expansion, cash generation, retention improvement, and a strengthened balance sheet materially outweigh the noted operational and investment-related headwinds.Positive Updates
Record 2025 Financial and Operating Performance
2025 was a record year: nearly $1.0B in subscription revenue, ~15% annual subscription adjusted operating margin, $152.0M operating income for the year, and nearly 1,000,000 pets protected. Over the past 60 months the company added over $900.0M in revenue and generated $518.0M in adjusted operating income.
Negative Updates
Pressure on Vet-Pays/Value Proposition and Adverse Reserve Development
Subscription business cost of paying veterinary invoices in Q4 produced a 'value proposition' metric of 69.1%, slightly below the prior-year period reference (70%). Q4 experienced adverse development of ~$900,000 (~30 basis points).
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record 2025 Financial and Operating Performance
2025 was a record year: nearly $1.0B in subscription revenue, ~15% annual subscription adjusted operating margin, $152.0M operating income for the year, and nearly 1,000,000 pets protected. Over the past 60 months the company added over $900.0M in revenue and generated $518.0M in adjusted operating income.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For full-year 2026 Trupanion guided total revenue of $1,550M–$1,582M, subscription revenue of $1,117M–$1,137M (about 14% year‑over‑year growth at the midpoint), and total adjusted operating income of $173M–$187M (about 19% YoY at the midpoint), assuming veterinary inflation in line with current trends and using a 73% conversion rate for guidance; for Q1 2026 they projected total revenue of $376M–$382M, subscription revenue of $265M–$268M (≈14% YoY at the midpoint), and adjusted operating income of $38M–$41M (≈27% YoY at the midpoint), while noting pricing will remain a primary revenue driver though at a lower contribution than in 2025 as gross ads and pet‑count contribution are expected to increase.Trupanion Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
67
Positive
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.44B | 1.29B | 1.11B | 905.18M | 698.99M |
| Gross Profit | 410.33M | 178.80M | 131.02M | 122.19M | 104.35M |
| EBITDA | 51.59M | 21.33M | -20.48M | -29.01M | -23.25M |
| Net Income | 19.43M | -9.63M | -44.69M | -44.67M | -35.53M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 915.04M | 806.85M | 782.95M | 671.63M | 562.58M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 370.73M | 307.38M | 277.17M | 222.41M | 213.41M |
| Total Debt | 111.78M | 128.89M | 128.93M | 69.46M | 0.00 |
| Total Liabilities | 531.11M | 483.58M | 479.23M | 366.33M | 230.38M |
| Stockholders Equity | 383.94M | 323.27M | 303.72M | 305.30M | 332.20M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 75.36M | 38.57M | 358.00K | -25.09M | -4.90M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 89.49M | 48.29M | 18.64M | -8.00M | 7.46M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -95.89M | -13.46M | 7.64M | -67.52M | -51.91M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -22.86M | -3.96M | 59.13M | 60.74M | -1.13M |
Trupanion Technical Analysis
Negative
25.67
Price Trends
28.00
Negative
32.04
Negative
39.21
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.64
Negative
43.80
Neutral
47.24
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TRUP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 25.67 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 25.64, below the 50-day MA of 28.00, and below the 200-day MA of 39.21, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.64 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 43.80 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 47.24 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TRUP.
Trupanion Risk Analysis
Trupanion disclosed 56 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Trupanion reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Trupanion Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $438.31M | 13.39 | 13.19% | 4.20% | 13.47% | 26.15% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
65 Neutral | $690.05M | 13.17 | 15.26% | ― | 34.48% | ― | |
64 Neutral | $1.11B | 82.61 | 5.39% | ― | 12.50% | ― | |
63 Neutral | $633.58M | 15.46 | 17.91% | 6.64% | -1.73% | -18.36% | |
59 Neutral | $828.96M | 95.96 | 1.04% | 2.94% | 1.69% | -52.43% | |
49 Neutral | $639.36M | 19.65 | 4.37% | 1.31% | 4.44% | 22.40% |
* Financial Sector Average
TRUP
Trupanion
25.74
-9.23
-26.39%
AMSF
Amerisafe
33.87
-11.83
-25.89%
EIG
Employers Holdings
42.65
-3.49
-7.57%
ITIC
Investors Title Company
233.88
15.55
7.12%
TIPT
Tiptree Financial
17.28
-3.99
-18.77%
HIPO
Hippo Holdings
26.06
3.31
14.55%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.