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Trupanion (TRUP)
NASDAQ:TRUP

Trupanion (TRUP) AI Stock Analysis

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Trupanion

(NASDAQ:TRUP)

Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$49.00
▼(-0.77%Downside)
Trupanion's stock score reflects strong revenue growth and positive cash flow improvements, which are offset by ongoing profitability challenges and valuation concerns. The recent earnings call provides a positive outlook with robust guidance and improved retention, enhancing the overall score. The approval of a significant dividend adds to the positive sentiment, despite some market share challenges and adverse reserve developments.
Positive Factors
Customer Retention
Despite the price increases, customer retention remains high at roughly 98%.
Earnings
The company reported Q3 results that were ahead on revenue and adj. operating income.
Negative Factors
Financial Performance
Management expressed confidence that after months of significant margin pressure, Trupanion is approaching a sustainable margin position to support increased pet acquisition spend.

Trupanion (TRUP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Trupanion Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTrupanion, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides medical insurance for cats and dogs on a monthly subscription basis in the United States, Canada, Puerto Rico, and Australia. The company operates in two segments, Subscription Business and Other Business. It serves pet owners and veterinarians. The company was formerly known as Vetinsurance International, Inc. changed its name to Trupanion, Inc. in 2013. The company was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Seattle, Washington.
How the Company Makes MoneyTrupanion makes money primarily through the sale of pet insurance policies. The company generates revenue by collecting monthly premiums from pet owners who purchase their insurance plans. These premiums vary based on factors such as the pet’s breed, age, and location, which help determine the risk and cost associated with insuring each pet. Trupanion also establishes partnerships with veterinary clinics to facilitate direct payment of claims, providing a seamless experience for both pet owners and veterinarians and helping drive customer acquisition and retention. Additionally, Trupanion may earn revenue through ancillary services and products that complement its core insurance offerings.

Trupanion Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Pets Enrolled
Pets Enrolled
Tracks the number of pets covered by Trupanion, reflecting customer base size and potential for revenue growth through increased enrollments.
Chart InsightsTrupanion's total pets enrolled have been declining since late 2023, contrasting with steady growth in subscription enrollments. Despite this, the earnings call highlights strong financial performance, with a 16% increase in subscription revenue, driven by higher average revenue per pet. Operational efficiencies and improved retention rates are contributing to profitability. However, challenges remain in first-year customer retention and market share. The company is optimistic, raising its 2025 revenue guidance, indicating confidence in overcoming these hurdles and sustaining growth.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Trupanion Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 01, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 35.51%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Trupanion's first quarter of 2025 showed strong financial performance and growth in key areas such as revenue, adjusted operating income, and operational efficiencies. However, the company faced challenges with adverse reserve development and retention of first-year customers. Despite market share losses in the previous year, the company is optimistic about future growth and improvements. Overall, the positive aspects of increased profitability, improved retention, and operational efficiencies outweigh the challenges faced.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Start to Fiscal Year 2025
Trupanion reported overachievement on both total revenue and total adjusted operating income in Q1 2025. Subscription adjusted operating income increased 53% year-over-year to over $30 million.
Core Subscription Business Growth
Revenue was $233 million, up 16% year-over-year, driven primarily by increases in average revenue per pet and a modest lift from growth in enrolled pets.
Improved Operational Efficiencies
The company achieved a substantial year-over-year increase of 350 basis points in value proposition, ending the quarter at 71.8% due to operational efficiencies and transition to the Vision technology platform.
Increase in Pet Acquisition Investment
Investment in pet acquisition increased 18% year-over-year, maintaining a 31% internal rate of return. The average profit per Trupanion Pet was up 46% year-over-year.
Improved Retention Rates
Monthly average retention improved quarter-on-quarter for the first time in 12 quarters to 98.28%, driven by improvements within the core Trupanion product.
Positive Financial Outlook for 2025
Full-year guidance was increased, with total revenue expected to be in the range of $1.39 billion to $1.425 billion and total adjusted operating income expected to grow by 15% year-over-year at the midpoint.
Negative Updates
Adverse Reserve Development
Q1 experienced adverse development from prior periods totaling $1.7 million or approximately 70 basis points of revenue.
Challenges in First-Year Retention
Retention for first-year customers declined significantly, attributed to a lack of focus on this segment as efforts were directed towards managing existing members with high rate increases.
Market Share Challenges
Trupanion experienced market share losses in 2024, attributed to the pullback on pet acquisition costs to focus on margin expansion.
Company Guidance
During Trupanion's first quarter 2025 earnings call, the company provided robust guidance, highlighting several key metrics. The subscription adjusted operating income surged by 53% year-over-year to over $30 million, driven by an improved loss ratio and operational efficiencies. Subscription revenue reached $233 million, marking a 16% increase compared to the previous year, largely due to a higher average revenue per pet and growth in enrolled pets. The value proposition also rose by 350 basis points, ending the quarter at 71.8%. Trupanion's focus on retention yielded results, as the monthly average retention improved to 98.28%, the first quarterly uptick in three years. The pet acquisition investment increased by 18% year-over-year, with an internal rate of return holding at 31%. Additionally, the company raised its full-year 2025 revenue guidance to between $1.39 billion and $1.425 billion, with subscription revenue expected to grow by approximately 14% year-over-year at the midpoint. For the second quarter, Trupanion forecasted total revenue to range from $344 million to $350 million, with subscription revenue anticipated to grow by 15% year-over-year at the midpoint.

Trupanion Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Trupanion shows strong revenue growth and improving cash flows. However, profitability is a concern with ongoing net losses and negative net profit margins. The balance sheet is stable but not particularly strong in generating returns for shareholders.
Income Statement
60
Neutral
Trupanion has demonstrated consistent revenue growth with a TTM revenue increase of approximately 2.79% compared to the previous annual period. However, the company continues to face profitability challenges, with negative net income and negative EBIT margins. The gross profit margin stands at 14.65%, indicating some efficiency in revenue generation, but the negative net profit margin of -0.32% highlights ongoing losses.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The balance sheet reflects a reasonable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.39, suggesting moderate leverage. The equity ratio of 39.86% indicates a balanced capital structure. However, the return on equity remains negative at -1.28%, which is a concern for shareholder returns. The company's financial position is stable but not overly strong, given the negative profitability metrics.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Trupanion's cash flow statement shows positive growth in operating cash flow, with a TTM operating cash flow to net income ratio of 14.50. The free cash flow has also improved significantly, showing a growth rate of 37.99% from the previous period. The positive free cash flow to net income ratio of 12.48 indicates better cash management despite net losses.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
1.32B1.29B1.11B905.18M698.99M502.03M
Gross Profit
193.67M178.80M131.02M122.19M104.35M81.90M
EBIT
-4.54M-9.51M-40.66M-42.75M-35.02M-4.35M
EBITDA
26.39M21.33M-20.48M-29.01M-23.25M2.73M
Net Income Common Stockholders
-4.26M-9.63M-44.69M-44.67M-35.53M-5.84M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
321.82M307.38M277.17M222.41M213.41M229.74M
Total Assets
837.16M806.85M782.95M671.63M562.58M498.25M
Total Debt
128.88M128.89M128.93M69.46M0.000.00
Net Debt
-37.43M-31.41M-18.57M3.85M-87.40M-139.88M
Total Liabilities
503.49M483.58M479.23M366.33M230.38M158.31M
Stockholders Equity
333.67M323.27M303.72M305.30M332.20M339.94M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
53.24M38.57M358.00K-25.09M-4.90M14.09M
Operating Cash Flow
61.82M48.29M18.64M-8.00M7.46M21.54M
Investing Cash Flow
-19.69M-13.46M7.64M-67.52M-51.91M-76.75M
Financing Cash Flow
-4.13M-3.96M59.13M60.74M-1.13M170.85M

Trupanion Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price49.38
Price Trends
50DMA
40.36
Positive
100DMA
40.93
Positive
200DMA
44.96
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
2.17
Negative
RSI
69.48
Neutral
STOCH
77.94
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TRUP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 49.38 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 45.88, above the 50-day MA of 40.36, and above the 200-day MA of 44.96, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.17 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 69.48 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 77.94 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TRUP.

Trupanion Risk Analysis

Trupanion disclosed 57 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Trupanion reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
We are subject to numerous laws and regulations in multiple jurisdictions, and ongoing compliance may be challenging for us. Q4, 2024
2.
In Canada, we are planning a significant ramp of underwriting activity by our subsidiary GPIC during 2025, while simultaneously reducing our business written through Accelerant. This transition may be delayed or may be not be successful. Q4, 2024
3.
We may face unexpected costs as a result of owning our own headquarters office building. Q4, 2024

Trupanion Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
EIEIG
72
Outperform
$1.17B11.799.84%2.51%-0.88%-12.63%
72
Outperform
$907.37M19.2016.89%3.16%-2.51%-22.68%
67
Neutral
$2.00B-1.34%14.08%84.28%
65
Neutral
$856.43M18.5711.12%1.05%15.76%105.98%
64
Neutral
$12.79B9.717.54%16971.00%12.07%-7.53%
55
Neutral
$619.62M-15.58%77.44%85.53%
44
Neutral
$365.38M72.67-2.23%10.50%-92.02%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TRUP
Trupanion
49.38
20.62
71.70%
AMSF
Amerisafe
47.14
7.13
17.82%
EIG
Employers Holdings
48.50
8.37
20.86%
AMBC
Ambac Financial
7.79
-6.02
-43.59%
TIPT
Tiptree Financial
22.77
5.35
30.71%
HIPO
Hippo Holdings
24.35
6.51
36.49%

Trupanion Corporate Events

DividendsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Trupanion Receives Approval for $26M Dividend
Positive
May 15, 2025

On May 15, 2025, the New York Department of Financial Services approved a $26 million extraordinary dividend to be paid to Trupanion, Inc. by its wholly-owned subsidiary, American Pet Insurance Company. This approval could enhance Trupanion’s financial flexibility and potentially improve its market positioning, benefiting stakeholders by possibly increasing shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (TRUP) stock is a Hold with a $30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Trupanion stock, see the TRUP Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.