Amerisafe (AMSF)
NASDAQ:AMSF
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Amerisafe
(NASDAQ:AMSF)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$35.00
▲(4.07% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:02/28/26
The score is driven mainly by decent underlying financial strength (low leverage, consistent profitability) and supportive valuation (moderate P/E and high yield), but is meaningfully offset by weak technicals (price below key moving averages with negative momentum) and earnings-call headwinds around negative rate outlook and elevated claim severity that pressured year-over-year earnings.
Positive Factors
Conservative balance sheet / low leverage
Near-zero leverage and a conservatively positioned balance sheet provide durable financial flexibility for underwriting volatility, large claim shocks, and capital actions. Low debt reduces refinancing risk and supports dividends and reinsurance buying power over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Rising claim severity and frequency of large losses
A growing count of $1M+ claims and a higher accident-year loss pick materially increase reserve risk and earnings volatility. Persistent severity trends can erode underwriting margins, force higher pricing or reinsurance, and lengthen cash outflows for claim settlement over multiple years.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Conservative balance sheet / low leverage
Near-zero leverage and a conservatively positioned balance sheet provide durable financial flexibility for underwriting volatility, large claim shocks, and capital actions. Low debt reduces refinancing risk and supports dividends and reinsurance buying power over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Amerisafe (AMSF) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$632.07M
Dividend Yield6.64%
Average Volume (3M)130.32K
Price to Earnings (P/E)15.5
Beta (1Y)0.22
Revenue Growth-1.73%
EPS Growth-18.36%
CountryUS
Employees362
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.51
Shares Outstanding18,794,882
10 Day Avg. Volume129,357
30 Day Avg. Volume130,317
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.05
Price to Book (P/B)2.90
Price to Sales (P/S)2.30
P/FCF Ratio81.71
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.91
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.82
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.91
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.67
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$40.50Price Target Upside20.43% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)2.22
Revenue Forecast (FY)$338.97M
Amerisafe Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
AMERISAFE, Inc., an insurance holding company, underwrites workers' compensation insurance in the United States. The company's workers' compensation insurance policies provide benefits to injured employees for temporary or permanent disability, de...
How the Company Makes Money
Amerisafe generates revenue primarily through underwriting workers' compensation insurance policies. The company's key revenue stream is the collection of premiums from policyholders, which are calculated based on the level of risk associated with...
Amerisafe Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 22, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveys a cautiously positive outlook: AMERISAFE delivered solid top-line growth (GPW up 11.7% in the quarter; voluntary premium growth ~10%+), maintained strong ROE (18.5%) and a sub-100 combined ratio (91.3%), sustained retention (93.7%) and showed meaningful favorable prior-year development. At the same time, the business faces notable headwinds — a soft market with mid-single-digit negative rate expectations, higher claim severity including more $1M+ claims, medical inflation pressures, a meaningful year-over-year decline in audit premium, and lower full-year investment income — which compressed net income versus 2024 (~15% decline). Overall, the positives (growth, profitability, strong capital and underwriting discipline) outweigh the negatives, though the call emphasizes ongoing vigilance on severity, rates and medical cost inflation.Positive Updates
Strong Return on Equity and Conservative Combined Ratio
ROE of 18.5% for FY2025 and a combined ratio of 91.3%, indicating continued underwriting profitability and disciplined underwriting despite market pressure.
Negative Updates
Current Accident Year Loss Ratio and Increased Severity
Current accident year loss ratio was 72% for the full year (up from 71% earlier and higher than prior year assumptions). The company recorded 25 claims with incurred values over $1,000,000 (vs. 18 in prior year), prompting an upward adjustment to the loss pick.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Return on Equity and Conservative Combined Ratio
ROE of 18.5% for FY2025 and a combined ratio of 91.3%, indicating continued underwriting profitability and disciplined underwriting despite market pressure.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management gave limited forward guidance: they expect 2026 filed rate changes to be negative in the mid-single-digit range and said they are inclined to carry a 72% accident‑year loss pick into 2026 (up from 71%), noting continued pressure from rising severity (25 claims >$1.0M in the year) and mid‑single‑digit underlying loss cost trends; retention was strong at 93.7% in Q4, gross premium written grew 11.7% in the quarter (6.7% full year) with voluntary premium up 10.5% (Q) and 10.2% (FY) and audit premium adding $3.5M (Q) / $12.6M (FY), net premium earned was $73.6M (Q) / $283.0M (FY), wage growth was 6.1% in Q4, combined ratio finished at 91.3% with ROE of 18.5%, net income was $10.4M ($0.55 diluted) in the quarter and $47.1M for the year (operating net income $9.8M / $0.51 Q, $41.8M FY), book value per share was $13.39 after a special dividend, invested assets totaled roughly $797M, and the tax‑equivalent book yield rose to 3.83% with a portfolio duration of 4.3 years.Amerisafe Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
66
Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 317.25M | 309.11M | 306.91M | 294.69M | 316.01M |
| Gross Profit | 147.31M | 128.09M | 306.91M | 142.38M | 155.22M |
| EBITDA | 59.59M | 70.15M | 0.00 | 68.95M | 80.47M |
| Net Income | 47.15M | 55.44M | 62.11M | 55.60M | 65.76M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.03B | 1.05B | 1.11B | 1.15B | 1.30B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 61.93M | 44.05M | 38.68M | 61.47M | 70.72M |
| Total Debt | 491.00K | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Total Liabilities | 878.95M | 900.45M | 936.71M | 951.85M | 1.00B |
| Stockholders Equity | 251.60M | 257.34M | 292.45M | 317.43M | 399.32M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 8.92M | 23.35M | 29.29M | 26.11M | 36.68M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 11.07M | 24.19M | 29.84M | 28.19M | 37.98M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 68.42M | 72.37M | 43.88M | 75.43M | 70.96M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -61.61M | -91.20M | -96.51M | -112.87M | -99.97M |
Amerisafe Technical Analysis
Neutral
33.63
Price Trends
34.79
Negative
36.31
Negative
38.83
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.22
Negative
49.96
Neutral
61.43
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AMSF, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 33.63 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 33.14, below the 50-day MA of 34.79, and below the 200-day MA of 38.83, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.22 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.96 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 61.43 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AMSF.
Amerisafe Risk Analysis
Amerisafe disclosed 28 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Amerisafe reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Amerisafe Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
65 Neutral | $692.13M | 13.17 | 15.26% | ― | 34.48% | ― | |
63 Neutral | $632.07M | 15.46 | 17.91% | 6.64% | -1.73% | -18.36% | |
61 Neutral | $291.44M | 6.16 | 7.44% | 0.63% | -19.08% | 56.21% | |
59 Neutral | $818.63M | 95.96 | 1.04% | 2.94% | 1.69% | -52.43% | |
49 Neutral | $649.97M | 19.65 | 4.37% | 1.31% | 4.44% | 22.40% |
* Financial Sector Average
AMSF
Amerisafe
33.69
-12.75
-27.46%
EIG
Employers Holdings
41.78
-5.21
-11.08%
TIPT
Tiptree Financial
17.25
-5.19
-23.13%
JRVR
James River Group
6.32
2.05
47.97%
HIPO
Hippo Holdings
27.21
2.60
10.56%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.