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Amerisafe (AMSF)
NASDAQ:AMSF
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Amerisafe
(NASDAQ:AMSF)
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Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$43.00
▲(16.56% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:12/30/25
The score is driven primarily by strong underlying financial quality (high margins and a near debt-free balance sheet) and supportive shareholder returns (high dividend yield). This is tempered by weak technical trends and signs of softer recent earnings/cash flow, while the earnings call was generally positive on underwriting performance and premium growth despite investment-income and large-loss headwinds.
Positive Factors
Financial Stability
Amerisafe's zero-debt position enhances its financial flexibility and stability, allowing it to navigate economic uncertainties without the burden of interest obligations.
Gross Written Premiums Growth
Growth in gross written premiums suggests effective market penetration and demand for Amerisafe's insurance products, supporting long-term revenue growth.
Policy Retention
High policy retention rates indicate strong customer loyalty and satisfaction, which can lead to sustained revenue streams and reduced costs associated with acquiring new customers.
Negative Factors
Cash Flow Decline
A decline in free cash flow indicates challenges in cash generation, which could hinder Amerisafe's capacity to fund operations and growth without external financing.
Increased Expenses
Rising expenses can pressure profit margins and reduce financial efficiency, potentially limiting Amerisafe's ability to invest in strategic growth areas.
Decreased Net Income
The significant drop in net income reflects challenges in profitability, which could impact the company's ability to reinvest in growth initiatives and maintain competitive positioning.
Amerisafe (AMSF) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$704.93M
Dividend Yield6.64%
Average Volume (3M)130.32K
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.3
Beta (1Y)0.23
Revenue Growth-1.73%
EPS Growth-18.36%
CountryUS
Employees362
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.51
Shares Outstanding18,924,398
10 Day Avg. Volume129,357
30 Day Avg. Volume130,317
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.74
Price to Book (P/B)3.82
Price to Sales (P/S)3.18
P/FCF Ratio42.10
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.91
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.06
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.87
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$55.00Price Target Upside49.09% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)2.28
Revenue Forecast (FY)$334.14M
Amerisafe Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionAMERISAFE, Inc., an insurance holding company, underwrites workers' compensation insurance in the United States. The company's workers' compensation insurance policies provide benefits to injured employees for temporary or permanent disability, death, and medical and hospital expenses. It serves small to mid-sized employers engaged in hazardous industries, including construction, trucking, logging and lumber, agriculture, manufacturing, telecommunications, and maritime. The company was incorporated in 1985 and is based in DeRidder, Louisiana.
How the Company Makes MoneyAmerisafe generates revenue primarily through underwriting workers' compensation insurance policies. The company's key revenue stream is the collection of premiums from policyholders, which are calculated based on the level of risk associated with the insured's industry and the size of their workforce. Amerisafe's profitability is influenced by its ability to accurately assess risks, set appropriate premium rates, and manage claims efficiently. The company also earns investment income from its portfolio, which consists of premiums collected and held in reserve to pay future claims. Strategic partnerships with independent insurance agencies and brokers help Amerisafe expand its market reach and maintain a steady flow of new business.
Amerisafe Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveys a cautiously positive outlook: AMERISAFE delivered solid top-line growth (GPW up 11.7% in the quarter; voluntary premium growth ~10%+), maintained strong ROE (18.5%) and a sub-100 combined ratio (91.3%), sustained retention (93.7%) and showed meaningful favorable prior-year development. At the same time, the business faces notable headwinds — a soft market with mid-single-digit negative rate expectations, higher claim severity including more $1M+ claims, medical inflation pressures, a meaningful year-over-year decline in audit premium, and lower full-year investment income — which compressed net income versus 2024 (~15% decline). Overall, the positives (growth, profitability, strong capital and underwriting discipline) outweigh the negatives, though the call emphasizes ongoing vigilance on severity, rates and medical cost inflation.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Return on Equity and Conservative Combined Ratio
ROE of 18.5% for FY2025 and a combined ratio of 91.3%, indicating continued underwriting profitability and disciplined underwriting despite market pressure.
Top-Line Growth — Gross Premiums Written
Gross premium written (GPW) grew 11.7% in the quarter and 6.7% for the full year; this marked the seventh consecutive quarter of top-line growth.
Voluntary Premium Growth and Net Premium Earned
Voluntary premium, the primary GPW component, rose 10.5% in the quarter and 10.2% for the year (vs. 4.6% in 2024). Net premium earned increased 10.7% in the quarter to $73.6M and 4.6% for the year to $283.0M.
Strong Retention and Policy Count Expansion
Renewal retention for policies offered renewal was 93.7% for the quarter; in-force policy count increased 10.2% for the year, evidencing successful distribution and retention efforts.
Favorable Prior-Accident-Year Development
Favorable development from prior accident years totaled $7.6M in the quarter (10.4%) and $33.9M for the full year (12%), helping mitigate current-year loss pressure.
Improving Investment Yield and High-Quality Portfolio
Tax-equivalent book yield increased to 3.83% (up 3 basis points vs. 2024). Investment portfolio is high quality (average AA- rating) with $797M of cash and invested assets and a 4.3-year duration.
Profitability Maintained — Positive Operating Results
Company reported FY2025 net income of $47.1M and net operating income of $41.8M, and Q4 net income of $10.4M ($0.55/share) and operating net income of $9.8M ($0.51/share), demonstrating continued profitability.
Distribution and Operational Efficiency Gains
Improved agency effectiveness: contracted agency count reduced by over one-third in four years while producing more opportunities and binds; operational collaboration (sales, safety, underwriting) described as sustainable and effective.
Niche and Product Mix Growth
Notable growth in select segments: services line increased from 5.3% to 5.8% of the book and agriculture from 6.0% to 7.3%, showing expansion within existing footprints and classes.
Balance Sheet Strength and Capital Actions
Strong capital position highlighted with $797M of invested assets and cash; book value per share reported at $13.39 after a special dividend in December 2025.
Negative Updates
Current Accident Year Loss Ratio and Increased Severity
Current accident year loss ratio was 72% for the full year (up from 71% earlier and higher than prior year assumptions). The company recorded 25 claims with incurred values over $1,000,000 (vs. 18 in prior year), prompting an upward adjustment to the loss pick.
Deterioration in Reported Loss Ratios vs. Prior Year
Reported loss ratio was 64.5% for the quarter (vs. 56.4% in 2024, an increase of 8.1 percentage points) and 60.0% for the year (vs. 58.1% in 2024, up 1.9 percentage points), reflecting pressure from severity and rate environment.
Earnings Decline Year-over-Year
FY2025 net income decreased to $47.1M from $55.4M in 2024 (approximately a 15.0% decline). Net operating income fell to $41.8M from $48.4M (approximately a 13.6% decline), reflecting margin pressure and claim cost headwinds.
Investment Income Weakness on the Year
Net investment income decreased 7.6% for the full year to $27.0M, which weighed on overall earnings despite a modest quarter-over-quarter increase cited for the quarter.
Audit Premiums Moderating
Audit premium and adjustments contributed $12.6M for the full year vs. $20.2M in 2024, a decline of roughly 37.6%, consistent with the expected moderating trend in audit activity.
Ongoing Rate Pressure in Soft Market
Company faces a prolonged soft workers' compensation market with 12 consecutive years of rate declines; filed rates are expected to be negative mid-single-digits for 2026, continuing pricing pressure on loss ratios.
Medical Inflation and Cost Pressures
Management called out persistent medical cost pressures — notably home health and prosthetics (DME) — contributing to higher severity and upward pressure on claim costs.
Net Unrealized Losses on Available Investments
Net unrealized loss on the investment portfolio was $5.5M at quarter end (held-to-maturity securities carried at amortized cost, so unrealized losses do not impact book value but are noted).
Lumpiness and Volatility in Large Claims
Management characterized the increase in $1M+ claims as lumpy frequency of severity; such volatility resulted in reserving and loss-pick changes and introduces earnings unpredictability.
Expense and Operating Margin Pressure
Expense ratio was 29.2% for the quarter and 30.4% for the full year; combined with elevated loss costs, this contributed to compression of underwriting margins versus prior periods.
Company Guidance
Management gave limited forward guidance: they expect 2026 filed rate changes to be negative in the mid-single-digit range and said they are inclined to carry a 72% accident‑year loss pick into 2026 (up from 71%), noting continued pressure from rising severity (25 claims >$1.0M in the year) and mid‑single‑digit underlying loss cost trends; retention was strong at 93.7% in Q4, gross premium written grew 11.7% in the quarter (6.7% full year) with voluntary premium up 10.5% (Q) and 10.2% (FY) and audit premium adding $3.5M (Q) / $12.6M (FY), net premium earned was $73.6M (Q) / $283.0M (FY), wage growth was 6.1% in Q4, combined ratio finished at 91.3% with ROE of 18.5%, net income was $10.4M ($0.55 diluted) in the quarter and $47.1M for the year (operating net income $9.8M / $0.51 Q, $41.8M FY), book value per share was $13.39 after a special dividend, invested assets totaled roughly $797M, and the tax‑equivalent book yield rose to 3.83% with a portfolio duration of 4.3 years.Amerisafe Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Strong profitability and a standout balance sheet support the score: net margin ~16% and EBIT margin ~20%, with essentially no debt and solid equity. Offsetting this, revenue growth is muted (~1% TTM) and both earnings and cash generation have softened versus 2024 (TTM net income ~$49.9M vs. ~$55.4M; TTM FCF ~$9.3M vs. ~$23.4M).Income Statement
AMSF shows strong profitability for the sector, with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) net margin at ~16% and EBIT margin at ~20%. Revenue has been essentially flat (TTM growth ~1.1%; 2024 growth ~0.7%), and earnings are down versus 2024 (TTM net income ~$49.9M vs. ~$55.4M), pointing to some margin/underwriting pressure. Overall, solid margins but a muted growth profile and some recent profit softening.78
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet is a clear strength: the company reports essentially no debt (debt-to-equity ~0) across periods, providing high financial flexibility and low solvency risk. Equity is sizable (~$275M in TTM period), and return on equity remains positive (TTM ~10%), though it has stepped down meaningfully from 2023–2024 levels (~21%), suggesting weaker recent profitability relative to the capital base.90
Very Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is positive but has weakened in the most recent period: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow is ~$11.3M and free cash flow ~$9.3M, well below 2024 levels (operating cash flow ~$24.2M; free cash flow ~$23.4M). Free cash flow still covers a large portion of earnings (TTM free cash flow to net income ~0.82), but the year-to-year drop in cash flow raises questions about near-term cash conversion stability even as free cash flow growth is shown as positive off a lower base.64
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 309.75M | 309.11M | 306.91M | 294.69M | 316.01M | 339.50M |
| Gross Profit | 131.26M | 128.09M | 306.91M | 142.38M | 155.22M | 339.50M |
| EBITDA | 63.78M | 70.15M | 0.00 | 68.95M | 80.47M | 106.92M |
| Net Income | 49.92M | 55.44M | 62.11M | 55.60M | 65.76M | 86.60M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.16B | 1.16B | 1.23B | 1.27B | 1.40B | 1.47B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 144.24M | 130.55M | 133.43M | 396.71M | 70.72M | 61.76M |
| Total Debt | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 395.00K | 499.00K |
| Total Liabilities | 890.17M | 900.45M | 936.71M | 951.85M | 1.00B | 1.03B |
| Stockholders Equity | 274.77M | 257.34M | 292.45M | 317.43M | 399.32M | 438.82M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 9.29M | 23.35M | 29.29M | 26.11M | 36.68M | 62.48M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 11.27M | 24.19M | 29.84M | 28.19M | 37.98M | 63.40M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 71.44M | 72.37M | 43.88M | 75.43M | 70.96M | 43.37M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -91.63M | -91.20M | -96.51M | -112.87M | -99.97M | -88.83M |
Amerisafe Technical Analysis
Negative
36.89
Price Trends
38.12
Negative
38.72
Negative
40.93
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.22
Positive
40.24
Neutral
17.25
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AMSF, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 36.89 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 37.96, below the 50-day MA of 38.12, and below the 200-day MA of 40.93, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.22 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.24 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.25 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AMSF.
Amerisafe Risk Analysis
Amerisafe disclosed 30 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Amerisafe reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Amerisafe Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $704.93M | 14.26 | 16.95% | 6.64% | -1.73% | -18.36% | |
69 Neutral | $903.66M | 87.56 | 5.86% | 2.94% | 1.69% | -52.43% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
63 Neutral | $627.50M | 14.63 | 10.46% | 1.31% | 4.44% | 22.40% | |
63 Neutral | $730.92M | 12.83 | 25.65% | ― | 34.48% | ― | |
60 Neutral | $306.59M | -3.19 | -6.97% | 0.63% | -19.08% | 56.21% |
* Financial Sector Average
AMSF
Amerisafe
36.89
-10.90
-22.80%
EIG
Employers Holdings
41.60
-8.12
-16.32%
TIPT
Tiptree Financial
16.93
-5.87
-25.75%
JRVR
James River Group
6.63
1.80
37.27%
HIPO
Hippo Holdings
27.44
-0.55
-1.96%
Amerisafe Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Amerisafe CFO Anastasios Omiridis Resigns, Search Begins
Neutral
Nov 3, 2025
On November 3, 2025, AMERISAFE announced the resignation of its Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Anastasios Omiridis, effective November 30, 2025, as he plans to pursue another opportunity. The company will initiate a search for a new CFO, with President and CEO G. Janelle Frost temporarily assuming the financial responsibilities. This transition is not due to any conflicts within the company, and operations are expected to continue smoothly during the search for a successor.
The most recent analyst rating on (AMSF) stock is a Hold with a $45.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Amerisafe stock, see the AMSF Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.