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Amerisafe (AMSF)
NASDAQ:AMSF
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Amerisafe
(NASDAQ:AMSF)
Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:―
Positive Factors
Earnings
Analyst reiterates a Market Outperform rating on Amerisafe following strong results.
Premium Growth
Voluntary premium growth accelerated by 9%, reflecting increased policy count and strong retention.
Negative Factors
Financial Performance
Operating EPS was below the initial estimate, driven by a higher expense ratio and slightly lower net investment income.
Amerisafe (AMSF) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$852.87M
Dividend Yield10.06%
Average Volume (3M)132.09K
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.0
Beta (1Y)0.23
Revenue Growth-0.86%
EPS Growth-11.19%
CountryUS
Employees362
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength71
IndustryInsurance - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.53
Shares Outstanding18,990,652
10 Day Avg. Volume139,171
30 Day Avg. Volume132,093
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)0.00
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.98
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.73
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.91
Enterprise Value/Ebitda17.97
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$65.00Price Target Upside44.73% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
Amerisafe Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionAMERISAFE, Inc., an insurance holding company, underwrites workers' compensation insurance in the United States. The company's workers' compensation insurance policies provide benefits to injured employees for temporary or permanent disability, death, and medical and hospital expenses. It serves small to mid-sized employers engaged in hazardous industries, including construction, trucking, logging and lumber, agriculture, manufacturing, telecommunications, and maritime. The company was incorporated in 1985 and is based in DeRidder, Louisiana.
How the Company Makes MoneyAmerisafe generates revenue primarily through underwriting workers' compensation insurance policies. The company's key revenue stream is the collection of premiums from policyholders, which are calculated based on the level of risk associated with the insured's industry and the size of their workforce. Amerisafe's profitability is influenced by its ability to accurately assess risks, set appropriate premium rates, and manage claims efficiently. The company also earns investment income from its portfolio, which consists of premiums collected and held in reserve to pay future claims. Strategic partnerships with independent insurance agencies and brokers help Amerisafe expand its market reach and maintain a steady flow of new business.
Amerisafe Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 24, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: 3.05%|
Next Earnings Date:Oct 22, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong performance in premium growth, financial results, and return on equity, supported by effective capital management strategies. However, challenges such as a reduction in audit premiums, increased expense ratio, and a decrease in investment income were noted alongside pressure on the loss ratio. Despite these lowlights, the positive aspects of the company's performance were more pronounced.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Increase in Premiums and Policy Count
AMERISAFE reported a 12.8% growth in voluntary premiums for policies written in the quarter, with an in-force policy count growth of 3.4%, supported by new business growth and 93.8% renewal retention.
Financial Performance and Share Repurchase Program
AMERISAFE reported net income of $14 million, or $0.73 per diluted share. The company's Board of Directors reauthorized a $25 million share repurchase program, reflecting confidence in long-term business value.
Dividend and Capital Management
A regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.39 per share was declared. Book value per share increased to $13.96, up 3.3% year-to-date.
Strong Underwriting Profitability
Despite a competitive market, AMERISAFE maintained a current accident year loss ratio at 71% and achieved $8.6 million of favorable development in the quarter.
Industry-Leading Return on Equity
AMERISAFE achieved an industry-leading operating ROE of 14.9%.
Negative Updates
Moderation in Audit Premiums
Audit premiums decreased, contributing $1.5 million to the top line compared with $7.3 million in the year-ago period, indicating a moderation in audit premium growth.
Increase in Expense Ratio
Total underwriting and other expenses increased to $21.7 million, resulting in an expense ratio of 31.3% compared with 29.8% in the prior year quarter.
Decline in Investment Income
Net investment income decreased by 10.2% to $6.7 million, driven by a decrease in investable assets following the payment of the special dividend.
Pressure on Loss Ratio
There is ongoing pressure on the 71% accident year loss ratio due to continued declines in loss costs and potential market changes.
Company Guidance
During the AMERISAFE Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, the company highlighted several key financial metrics and strategic initiatives. AMERISAFE reported a 12.8% growth in voluntary premiums for policies written in the quarter, with an in-force policy count increase of 3.4% and a renewal retention rate of 93.8%. The current accident year loss ratio stood at 71%, and there was $8.6 million in favorable development for the quarter. Additionally, the Board approved a $25 million share repurchase program, while a regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.39 per share was declared. The company reported net income of $14 million, or $0.73 per diluted share, and operating net income of $10 million, or $0.53 per diluted share. Gross written premiums rose by 4.3% year-over-year to $79.7 million. The expense ratio was noted at 31.3%, reflecting ongoing investments in growth, and the effective tax rate was 20.1%. The investment portfolio remained robust with a tax-equivalent book yield of 3.85%, and the company repurchased 63,000 shares during the quarter.Amerisafe Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Amerisafe demonstrates strong financial stability with zero debt and a healthy equity position, but faces challenges in maintaining profitability margins and cash flow growth. The company is well-positioned in terms of financial health but could benefit from strategies to boost revenue growth and cash flow efficiency.Income Statement
Amerisafe's income statement shows a stable revenue base with a gross profit margin of approximately 89.8% in 2024. However, the net profit margin decreased from 20.2% in 2023 to 17.9% in 2024, indicating a slight decline in profitability. The company experienced a modest revenue growth rate of 0.7% from 2023 to 2024, which suggests stability but limited growth potential. EBIT and EBITDA margins are unavailable for 2024, affecting the assessment of operational efficiency.75
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reflects a strong equity position with zero total debt in 2024, resulting in a debt-to-equity ratio of 0, which is excellent for financial stability. The return on equity (ROE) decreased to 21.5% in 2024 from 21.2% in 2023, but remains robust. The equity ratio is 22.2% in 2024, showing a consistent reliance on equity financing. The absence of debt enhances financial flexibility.80
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis indicates a decrease in free cash flow from $29.3M in 2023 to $23.3M in 2024, resulting in a negative free cash flow growth rate of -20.2%. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.44 in 2024, highlighting a need for improved cash generation relative to profits. The free cash flow to net income ratio stands at 0.42, suggesting that cash management strategies could be optimized.70
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 309.04M | 306.91M | 294.69M | 316.01M | 339.50M |
| Gross Profit | 277.54M | 306.91M | 142.38M | 155.22M | 339.50M |
| EBITDA | 70.15M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Net Income | 55.44M | 62.11M | 55.60M | 65.76M | 86.60M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.16B | 1.23B | 1.27B | 1.40B | 1.47B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 351.80M | 355.75M | 396.71M | 70.72M | 61.76M |
| Total Debt | 0.00 | 267.00K | 336.00K | 395.00K | 499.00K |
| Total Liabilities | 900.45M | 936.71M | 951.85M | 1.00B | 1.03B |
| Stockholders Equity | 257.34M | 292.45M | 317.43M | 399.32M | 438.82M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 23.35M | 29.29M | 26.11M | 36.68M | 62.48M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 24.19M | 29.84M | 28.19M | 37.98M | 63.40M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 72.37M | 43.88M | 75.43M | 70.96M | 43.37M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -91.20M | -96.51M | -112.87M | -99.97M | -88.83M |
Amerisafe Technical Analysis
Positive
44.91
Price Trends
44.61
Positive
46.57
Negative
48.83
Negative
Market Momentum
0.07
Positive
51.13
Neutral
42.89
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AMSF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 44.91 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 44.88, above the 50-day MA of 44.61, and below the 200-day MA of 48.83, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.07 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.13 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 42.89 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AMSF.
Amerisafe Risk Analysis
Amerisafe disclosed 30 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Amerisafe reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Amerisafe Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (67)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | $3.04B | 8.33 | 16.91% | ― | 9.99% | 11.47% | |
72 Outperform | $968.68M | 10.03 | 9.60% | 2.95% | 2.32% | -11.91% | |
72 Outperform | $434.12M | 13.15 | 12.55% | 6.89% | 15.28% | 26.05% | |
72 Outperform | $852.87M | 17.03 | 17.80% | 10.06% | -0.86% | -11.19% | |
67 Neutral | $17.22B | 11.28 | 10.45% | 3.94% | 10.30% | 1.07% | |
65 Neutral | $836.25M | 17.20 | 11.98% | 1.08% | 6.22% | 79.14% | |
52 Neutral | $259.43M | ― | -13.01% | 1.43% | -20.88% | 1.34% |
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
AMSF
Amerisafe
44.91
2.44
5.75%
EIG
Employers Holdings
41.34
-2.80
-6.34%
ITIC
Investors Title Company
229.99
31.63
15.95%
NMIH
NMI Holdings
39.25
1.86
4.97%
TIPT
Tiptree Financial
22.30
4.25
23.55%
JRVR
James River Group
5.65
-1.74
-23.55%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.