Amerisafe (AMSF)
NASDAQ:AMSF
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Amerisafe
(NASDAQ:AMSF)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$34.00
▲(0.00% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/24/26
The score is driven mainly by strong underlying financial quality (solid profitability and very low leverage). This is tempered by notably weak technicals (below key moving averages with negative MACD) and some recent softening in cash flow. Valuation is a partial offset due to the high dividend yield and reasonable P/E, while the latest earnings call was generally positive on disciplined growth but acknowledged pricing and earnings pressure.
Positive Factors
Conservative balance sheet / very low leverage
AMERISAFE's near-zero debt and large cash & invested assets (~$774M) provide durable financial flexibility. This conservatism lets the company absorb underwriting volatility, maintain capacity to write targeted premium, support buybacks/dividends, and preserves strategic optionality during multi-quarter industry cycles.
Negative Factors
Prolonged soft pricing and competitive market
Sustained soft pricing compresses rate adequacy over multiple quarters, forcing tighter underwriting or acceptance of lower margins. For a specialty workers' comp insurer, prolonged price weakness increases risk of underwriting deterioration, slower premium growth, and greater reliance on expense control or investment income to sustain returns.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Conservative balance sheet / very low leverage
AMERISAFE's near-zero debt and large cash & invested assets (~$774M) provide durable financial flexibility. This conservatism lets the company absorb underwriting volatility, maintain capacity to write targeted premium, support buybacks/dividends, and preserves strategic optionality during multi-quarter industry cycles.
Read all positive factors
Amerisafe (AMSF) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$561.86M
Dividend Yield6.64%
Average Volume (3M)130.32K
Price to Earnings (P/E)19.2
Beta (1Y)0.34
Revenue Growth7.83%
EPS Growth-1.76%
CountryUS
Employees362
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.44
Shares Outstanding18,703,772
10 Day Avg. Volume129,357
30 Day Avg. Volume130,317
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.05
Price to Book (P/B)2.90
Price to Sales (P/S)2.30
P/FCF Ratio81.71
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.93
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.61
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.38
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.95
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$39.50Price Target Upside16.18% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)2.11
Revenue Forecast (FY)$337.24M
Amerisafe Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
AMERISAFE, Inc., an insurance holding company, underwrites workers' compensation insurance in the United States. The company's workers' compensation insurance policies provide benefits to injured employees for temporary or permanent disability, de...
How the Company Makes Money
AMERISAFE makes money primarily through (1) underwriting income from workers’ compensation insurance and (2) investment income on its invested asset portfolio (the “float” generated from collecting premiums before paying claims). Underwriting reve...
Amerisafe Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 22, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
AMERISAFE reported solid, disciplined performance with mid-single-digit to high-single-digit growth in key premium metrics, improving expense efficiency, favorable prior-year development, a strong balance sheet and improving investment yields. Headline underwriting profitability (combined ratio 93.2%) and share repurchases support shareholder value. Offsetting items include industry-wide soft pricing and claim severity pressure, a slight decline in operating and GAAP earnings versus the prior year quarter, lower audit premium, and modest unrealized losses in the investment portfolio. Overall, the positives around premium growth, underwriting discipline, expense improvement and capital strength outweigh the challenges.Positive Updates
Premium Growth
Net premiums earned grew 9% year-over-year to $75.1 million. Gross premiums written increased 5.6% to $88.5 million (Q1 2026 vs Q1 2025). New and renewal voluntary premium rose 8.2%.
Negative Updates
Industry Pricing Pressure and Market Competitiveness
The workers' compensation market remains competitive with a prolonged soft pricing environment and downward pressure from filed loss costs, creating modest upward pressure on current accident year loss ratios.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Premium Growth
Net premiums earned grew 9% year-over-year to $75.1 million. Gross premiums written increased 5.6% to $88.5 million (Q1 2026 vs Q1 2025). New and renewal voluntary premium rose 8.2%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's guidance emphasized sustained, thoughtful growth and continued margin discipline: they are targeting mid‑single‑digit premium growth, expect NCCI filed loss costs to decline mid‑single‑digits for the year (five largest states range ~‑9% to ‑1.2%), and highlighted a 92.4% renewal retention and 4.5% payroll/wage growth in Q1 as offsets to rate pressure. They anchored that outlook to Q1 operating metrics — gross premiums written $88.5M (+5.6% YoY), net earned premiums $75.1M (+9% YoY), combined ratio 93.2%, current accident‑year loss ratio 72%, $7.6M of favorable prior‑year development (10.1 pts) yielding a net loss ratio of 61.9%, expense ratio 29.7% (underwriting & other expenses $22.3M) — and cited capital and investment strength: cash & invested assets ~$774M, portfolio duration 4.4 years (avg. credit AA‑), tax‑equivalent yield 3.9% (new money +174 bps vs roll‑off), net investment income $6.6M, nearly 120,000 shares repurchased for $4M (avg $33.60) with $12.9M remaining authorization, and book value per share $13.18.Amerisafe Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
88
Very Positive
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 324.76M | 317.25M | 309.11M | 306.91M | 294.69M | 316.01M |
| Gross Profit | 154.57M | 147.31M | 128.09M | 306.91M | 142.38M | 155.22M |
| EBITDA | 58.32M | 59.59M | 70.15M | 0.00 | 68.95M | 80.47M |
| Net Income | 46.34M | 47.15M | 55.44M | 62.11M | 55.60M | 65.76M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.12B | 1.13B | 1.16B | 1.23B | 1.27B | 1.40B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 123.79M | 149.36M | 130.55M | 133.43M | 396.71M | 469.92M |
| Total Debt | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Total Liabilities | 876.36M | 878.95M | 900.45M | 936.71M | 951.85M | 1.00B |
| Stockholders Equity | 246.60M | 251.60M | 257.34M | 292.45M | 317.43M | 399.32M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 7.99M | 8.92M | 23.35M | 29.29M | 26.11M | 36.68M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 10.16M | 11.07M | 24.19M | 29.84M | 28.19M | 37.98M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 46.00M | 68.42M | 72.37M | 43.88M | 75.43M | 70.96M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -66.69M | -61.61M | -91.20M | -96.51M | -112.87M | -99.97M |
Amerisafe Technical Analysis
Neutral
34.00
Price Trends
34.45
Negative
36.10
Negative
38.67
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.09
Negative
53.45
Neutral
62.03
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AMSF, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 34 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 33.29, below the 50-day MA of 34.45, and below the 200-day MA of 38.67, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.09 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.45 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 62.03 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AMSF.
Amerisafe Risk Analysis
Amerisafe disclosed 28 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Amerisafe reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Amerisafe Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $715.73M | 23.71 | 27.46% | ― | 20.77% | ― | |
68 Neutral | $561.86M | 19.19 | 17.85% | 6.64% | 7.83% | -1.76% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
64 Neutral | $640.95M | 11.22 | 4.37% | 1.31% | -47.59% | -58.70% | |
63 Neutral | $757.08M | 24.21 | 0.83% | 2.94% | 0.41% | -91.81% | |
51 Neutral | $281.79M | -8.14 | 7.44% | 0.63% | -2.83% | ― |
* Financial Sector Average
AMSF
Amerisafe
30.04
-14.05
-31.87%
EIG
Employers Holdings
41.50
-5.57
-11.83%
TIPT
Tiptree Financial
17.06
-4.12
-19.43%
JRVR
James River Group
6.13
1.34
28.03%
HIPO
Hippo Holdings
27.49
3.47
14.45%
Amerisafe Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Amerisafe Appoints Guillermo Ramos as New Chief Financial Officer
Positive
Apr 16, 2026
On April 15, 2026, AMERISAFE’s board appointed Guillermo A. Ramos as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, with his tenure effective May 7, 2026, following a career leading finance strategy at Hiscox US and senior financial r...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.