YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $14.90B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 3.18M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.67
• Revenue Growth: -2.76%
• EPS Growth: 56.81%
• Country: US
• Employees: 21,594
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Integrated
• EPS (TTM): -0.53
• Shares Outstanding: 393,261,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,107,315
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,182,561
• PEG Ratio: -0.05
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.47K
• Price to Sales (P/S): 897.70
• P/FCF Ratio: 80.44
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.33
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: <0.01
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 0.02
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 0.04
• 1Y Price Target: $39.08
• Price Target Upside: 10.58% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 72 Outperform
• Price Target: $40.00 ▲(13.19% Upside)

YPF's overall stock score reflects a balanced view of its current position. The strong operational performance and strategic advancements in shale oil and LNG projects are significant positives. However, concerns about declining revenue growth, operational margins, and increased net debt weigh on the score. The technical indicators suggest positive momentum, but caution is warranted due to potential overbought conditions.

Positive Factors

Shale Oil Production Growth

The significant increase in shale oil production demonstrates YPF's strategic focus on expanding its upstream capabilities, potentially leading to enhanced revenue and market position in the long term.

LNG Project Progress

Advancements in the LNG project signal YPF's commitment to diversifying its energy portfolio, which can enhance its global market presence and long-term revenue streams.

Downstream Processing Levels

Record downstream processing levels indicate operational efficiency and capacity utilization, strengthening YPF's competitive advantage in refining and distribution.

Negative Factors

Revenue Decline

The decline in revenue reflects challenges in maintaining sales growth, which could impact YPF's ability to invest in future projects and sustain its market position.

Negative Free Cash Flow

Negative free cash flow indicates potential liquidity issues, limiting YPF's ability to fund operations and strategic initiatives without increasing debt.

Increased Net Debt

Rising net debt levels can strain YPF's financial flexibility, increasing the risk of financial distress and limiting future investment opportunities.

YPF Sociedad Anonima Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

YPF Sociedad Anónima, an energy company, engages in the oil and gas upstream and downstream activities in Argentina. The company's upstream operations include the exploration, development, and production of crude oil, natural gas, and NGLs. Its downstream operations include the refining, marketing, transportation, and distribution of oil, petroleum products, petroleum derivatives, petrochemicals, LPG, and bio-fuels, as well as in gas separation, natural gas distribution operations, and power generation. As of December 31, 2021, it had interests in 119 oil and gas fields; approximately 643 million barrels (mmbbl) of oil; and approximately 2,447 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas. It also had a retail distribution network of 1,654 YPF-branded service stations; and 18 exploration permits. In addition, the company owns and operates three refineries with combined annual refining capacity of approximately 120 mmbbl; approximately 2,800 kilometers of crude oil pipelines with approximately 640,000 barrels of aggregate daily transportation capacity of refined products; and crude oil tankage of approximately 7 mmbbl, as well as maintains terminal facilities at five Argentine ports. Further, it participates in 21 power generation plants with an aggregate installed capacity of 3,091 megawatts; offers diesel, fertilizers, lubricants, phytosanitary products, and ensiling bags; and supplies diesel, gasoline, fuel oil, coal, asphalts, paraffin, and sulfur, CO2, decanted oil, and aromatic extract. The company was founded in 1977 and is headquartered in Buenos Aires, Argentina.

How the Company Makes Money

YPF generates revenue through multiple key streams: the exploration and production of oil and natural gas, where it sells crude oil and natural gas to domestic and international markets; refining operations, which transform crude oil into a variety of petroleum products such as gasoline, diesel, and lubricants for sale at retail stations and wholesale customers; and marketing activities, which include the distribution of its products through a widespread network of service stations. Additionally, YPF earns revenue from petrochemical operations and is increasingly investing in renewable energy projects, contributing to its earnings. Strategic partnerships with international oil companies and collaborations on technology and infrastructure projects further enhance its revenue potential.

YPF Sociedad Anonima Financial Statement Overview

Summary

YPF's financial statements present a mixed picture. While the company shows profitability and cash flow generation, the significant decline in revenue growth and operational margins in the TTM period raises concerns. The balance sheet remains relatively stable with manageable leverage, but the company needs to address revenue and margin challenges to improve its financial health.

Income Statement

YPF's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM data indicates a significant decline in revenue growth rate at -22.77%, which is concerning. However, the company maintains a positive gross profit margin of 25.77% and a net profit margin of 7.18%, reflecting some stability in profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have decreased compared to the previous year, indicating potential operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a moderate financial position. The debt-to-equity ratio of 0.90 suggests a balanced leverage, while the return on equity (ROE) of 11.80% indicates decent profitability relative to equity. The equity ratio is not explicitly calculated, but the overall asset base appears stable.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a positive free cash flow growth rate of 17.14% in the TTM, which is a positive sign. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is low at 1.49%, suggesting limited cash generation relative to net income. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is exceptionally high, indicating strong cash flow generation relative to earnings.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.86T	19.12B	17.00B	18.44B	13.38B	692.51B
Gross Profit	1.04T	5.21B	3.14B	4.75B	2.75B	70.67B
EBITDA	552.83B	4.95B	3.96B	6.71B	4.80B	107.06B
Net Income	-310.64B	2.35B	-1.31B	2.23B	26.00M	-69.65B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	40.80T	29.39B	25.04B	25.91B	23.29B	22.88B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.40T	1.51B	1.39B	1.09B	1.11B	993.84M
Total Debt	15.50T	9.69B	8.86B	7.65B	7.92B	8.62B
Total Liabilities	24.74T	17.52B	15.98B	15.36B	15.03B	14.75B
Stockholders Equity	16.05T	11.65B	8.95B	10.45B	8.18B	8.06B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-223.00M	213.43B	183.27B	204.53B	165.21B	94.60B
Operating Cash Flow	3.66B	5.60T	1.77T	736.66B	400.01B	209.22B
Investing Cash Flow	-4.04B	-5.23T	-1.52T	-523.02B	-243.99B	-109.16B
Financing Cash Flow	373.00M	-293.66B	33.16B	-157.10B	-150.66B	-121.11B

YPF Sociedad Anonima Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 35.34
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For YPF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 35.34 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 36.89, above the 50-day MA of 30.63, and above the 200-day MA of 32.52, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.47 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 56.32 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 21.32 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for YPF.

YPF Sociedad Anonima Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
E	79 Outperform	$56.48B	18.54	5.31%	6.07%	-3.84%	15.75%
NFG	78 Outperform	$7.21B	14.03	17.45%	2.60%	28.56%	593.72%
PBR	77 Outperform	$79.57B	5.95	18.20%	12.71%	-11.63%	-15.67%
EC	74 Outperform	$19.95B	7.29	13.79%	18.60%	-7.47%	-28.81%
YPF	72 Outperform	$14.90B	―	-4.00%	―	-2.76%	56.81%
EQNR	69 Neutral	$57.02B	10.68	13.46%	7.59%	1.53%	-35.81%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%

YPF Sociedad Anonima Corporate Events

YPF Reports Mixed Q3 2025 Results Amid Rising Debt

In its third quarter 2025 report, YPF Sociedad Anónima announced a slight increase in adjusted EBITDA by 21% compared to the previous quarter, despite a 12% year-over-year decline in revenues. The company faced a net loss of $198 million, attributed to a decrease in hydrocarbon production and exports. However, YPF achieved a notable 17% increase in shale oil production, reflecting its strategic focus on this segment. The report highlights a challenging financial environment with a significant rise in net debt and free cash flow deficits, impacting its operational stability and market positioning.

YPF Reports Financial Results for Nine-Month Period Ending September 2025

On November 7, 2025, YPF Sociedad Anónima’s Board of Directors approved the condensed interim financial statements for the nine-month period ending September 30, 2025. The company reported a net loss of 181,638 million pesos for the period, despite achieving a total comprehensive income of 3,772,560 million pesos. This financial performance reflects the company’s ongoing challenges and strategic adjustments in the energy sector, impacting its stakeholders and market positioning.

YPF Advances in LNG Export Project with Key Agreements Finalized

On November 4, 2025, YPF Sociedad Anónima announced that the conditions for the Bareboat Charter Agreement with GOLAR MK II CORPORATION, initiated on May 2, 2025, have been fulfilled. This includes the Final Investment Decision by Southern Energy S.A., where YPF holds a 25% indirect interest, and the issuance of a 30-year Free Export Authorization for LNG by the National Secretariat of Energy. This development marks a significant step in YPF’s involvement in the LNG export sector, potentially enhancing its market position and offering long-term benefits to stakeholders.

YPF Completes Full Acquisition of Refinor

On October 28, 2025, YPF Sociedad Anónima acquired the remaining 50% shareholding in Refinería del Norte S.A. (Refinor), securing full ownership by purchasing 45,803,655 class ‘A’ shares from Hidrocarburos del Norte S.A. for $25.2 million. This strategic move allows YPF to consolidate its operations in the industrialization and marketing of hydrocarbons, potentially strengthening its market position and operational efficiency in the energy sector.

YPF Completes Share Buyback Program in October 2025

On October 14, 2025, YPF Sociedad Anónima completed the acquisition of 343,654 of its Class D ordinary shares on the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange at an average price of AR$40,832.70 per share, totaling AR$14,032,321,620. This strategic move, adhering to market regulations, marks the conclusion of a share buyback process approved by the company’s Board of Directors, potentially strengthening YPF’s market position and shareholder value.

YPF Announces Board of Directors Change Following Resignation

On October 9, 2025, YPF Sociedad Anónima announced a change in its Board of Directors, with the resignation of Class D Alternate Director, Mr. Hugo Rodríguez Cancina, due to personal reasons. This change in leadership could impact the company’s strategic direction and stakeholder relations, as board members play a crucial role in corporate governance and decision-making.

YPF Approves AR$19 Billion Share Buyback Plan

On October 9, 2025, YPF Sociedad Anónima’s Board of Directors approved a plan to acquire up to AR$19,056,000,000 worth of its own shares. This move is aimed at implementing share compensation plans and is backed by a reserve fund of AR$34,205,000,000, ensuring the company’s liquidity and solvency remain intact. The acquisition will occur within 90 days, with a daily purchase limit set by market regulations, potentially impacting the company’s stock value and shareholder interests.

YPF Announces Full Redemption of 2026 Notes

On October 9, 2025, YPF Sociedad Anónima announced its decision to fully redeem its outstanding 4.000%/9.000% Step Up Secured and Export-Backed Notes due 2026. The redemption is scheduled for November 12, 2025, at a redemption price equal to 100% of the principal amount plus accrued interest. This move reflects YPF’s strategic financial management and could impact its financial obligations and investor relations positively.

YPF Completes Acquisition of Vaca Muerta Inversiones

On September 29, 2025, YPF Sociedad Anónima completed the acquisition of Vaca Muerta Inversiones S.A.U., acquiring 100% of its share capital from Total Austral S.A. This strategic acquisition, previously announced on August 6, 2025, strengthens YPF’s position in the Vaca Muerta region, a key area for unconventional oil and gas development, and signifies a consolidation of its assets without any outstanding financial obligations between the companies.

YPF Announces Organizational Restructuring Amid Strategic Focus

On August 18, 2025, YPF Sociedad Anonima announced significant changes to its organizational structure, effective August 19, 2025. The company’s Board of Directors approved the division of the CFO Vice-Presidency into two separate roles: the Vice-Presidency of Administration and Reporting, led by Juan José Mata, and the Vice-Presidency of Finance, led by Pedro Kearney. Additionally, Ariel Polotnianka was appointed as the interim Chief Audit Officer. These changes are part of YPF’s 4 x 4 Plan, aimed at enhancing administrative efficiency and addressing strategic project challenges. The company also accepted the resignation of Federico Barroetaveña from the CFO position for personal reasons.

YPF Releases Interim Financial Statements for June 2025

YPF Sociedad Anónima has released its condensed interim consolidated financial statements for the period ending June 30, 2025. These statements provide insights into the company’s financial position, including assets, liabilities, and equity, as well as comprehensive income and cash flow. The release of these financial statements is crucial for stakeholders to assess YPF’s financial health and operational efficiency, impacting its market positioning and investor confidence.