YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $14.49B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.77M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.61
• Revenue Growth: -2.76%
• EPS Growth: 56.81%
• Country: US
• Employees: 21,594
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Integrated
• EPS (TTM): -0.53
• Shares Outstanding: 393,261,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,190,954
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,771,546
• PEG Ratio: -0.02
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.43
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.96
• P/FCF Ratio: 35.99K
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.37
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: <0.01
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: <0.01
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: <0.01
• 1Y Price Target: $40.35
• Price Target Upside: 15.19% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 54 Neutral
• Price Target: $37.00 ▲(5.62% Upside)

YPF's overall score reflects significant challenges in financial performance, particularly in profitability and cash flow. However, strong operational achievements in shale oil production and strategic initiatives provide a positive outlook. The technical analysis suggests potential bullish momentum, but valuation concerns remain due to ongoing losses.

Positive Factors

Shale Oil Production Growth

The significant increase in shale oil production enhances YPF's competitive position in the energy sector, contributing to long-term operational efficiency and cost reduction.

LNG Export Project

The LNG export project positions YPF as a key player in the global LNG market, potentially boosting revenue and market share over the long term.

Downstream Processing Levels

Record downstream processing levels indicate strong operational capabilities, supporting sustained revenue generation and market presence.

Negative Factors

Negative Free Cash Flow

Negative free cash flow reflects liquidity challenges, potentially limiting YPF's ability to invest in growth opportunities and manage debt effectively.

Increased Net Debt

Rising net debt levels can strain financial flexibility, impacting YPF's capacity to navigate economic fluctuations and invest in strategic initiatives.

Revenue Decline

A decline in revenue indicates potential challenges in market demand or pricing power, affecting YPF's ability to maintain profitability and growth.

YPF Sociedad Anonima Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

YPF Sociedad Anónima, an energy company, engages in the oil and gas upstream and downstream activities in Argentina. The company's upstream operations include the exploration, development, and production of crude oil, natural gas, and NGLs. Its downstream operations include the refining, marketing, transportation, and distribution of oil, petroleum products, petroleum derivatives, petrochemicals, LPG, and bio-fuels, as well as in gas separation, natural gas distribution operations, and power generation. As of December 31, 2021, it had interests in 119 oil and gas fields; approximately 643 million barrels (mmbbl) of oil; and approximately 2,447 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas. It also had a retail distribution network of 1,654 YPF-branded service stations; and 18 exploration permits. In addition, the company owns and operates three refineries with combined annual refining capacity of approximately 120 mmbbl; approximately 2,800 kilometers of crude oil pipelines with approximately 640,000 barrels of aggregate daily transportation capacity of refined products; and crude oil tankage of approximately 7 mmbbl, as well as maintains terminal facilities at five Argentine ports. Further, it participates in 21 power generation plants with an aggregate installed capacity of 3,091 megawatts; offers diesel, fertilizers, lubricants, phytosanitary products, and ensiling bags; and supplies diesel, gasoline, fuel oil, coal, asphalts, paraffin, and sulfur, CO2, decanted oil, and aromatic extract. The company was founded in 1977 and is headquartered in Buenos Aires, Argentina.

How the Company Makes Money

YPF generates revenue through multiple key streams: the exploration and production of oil and natural gas, where it sells crude oil and natural gas to domestic and international markets; refining operations, which transform crude oil into a variety of petroleum products such as gasoline, diesel, and lubricants for sale at retail stations and wholesale customers; and marketing activities, which include the distribution of its products through a widespread network of service stations. Additionally, YPF earns revenue from petrochemical operations and is increasingly investing in renewable energy projects, contributing to its earnings. Strategic partnerships with international oil companies and collaborations on technology and infrastructure projects further enhance its revenue potential.

YPF Sociedad Anonima Financial Statement Overview

Summary

YPF's financial performance is challenged by strong revenue growth but negative profitability and cash flow issues. The balance sheet shows moderate leverage, but inefficiencies in generating returns and liquidity risks are concerning.

Income Statement

YPF's income statement reveals a mixed performance. The TTM data shows a significant revenue growth rate of 11.37%, indicating strong top-line expansion. However, the company is struggling with profitability, as evidenced by a negative net profit margin of -6.39% and a negative EBIT margin of -3.76%. This suggests challenges in cost management or operational efficiency. Historical data shows fluctuating margins, with periods of profitability followed by losses, highlighting volatility in earnings.

Balance Sheet

YPF's balance sheet shows a moderate financial position. The debt-to-equity ratio of 0.97 in the TTM period indicates a balanced leverage level, but the negative return on equity of -7.72% suggests inefficiencies in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio is stable, reflecting a solid asset base, but the company's ability to generate profit from its equity is a concern.

Cash Flow

YPF's cash flow statement highlights some concerns. The TTM free cash flow is negative, indicating cash outflows, and the free cash flow growth rate is -5.16%, showing a decline in cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is extremely low, suggesting that net income is not translating effectively into cash flow. These factors point to potential liquidity challenges.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	21.53T	17.90T	5.48T	2.53T	1.32T	692.51B
Gross Profit	5.58T	4.94T	969.46B	650.78B	294.87B	70.67B
EBITDA	4.77T	3.90T	1.08T	631.62B	367.45B	107.06B
Net Income	-550.51B	2.08T	-1.56T	289.06B	257.00M	-69.65B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	42.21T	30.27T	17.96T	4.59T	2.39T	1.92T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.45T	1.55T	995.29B	193.36B	113.69B	83.55B
Total Debt	16.04T	9.98T	6.35T	1.36T	812.84B	724.58B
Total Liabilities	25.60T	18.05T	11.47T	2.72T	1.54T	1.24T
Stockholders Equity	16.29T	12.00T	6.42T	1.85T	839.89B	677.23B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-259.10B	477.00M	-7.57B	204.53B	165.21B	94.60B
Operating Cash Flow	4.30T	5.87B	1.58T	736.66B	400.01B	209.22B
Investing Cash Flow	-5.35T	-5.51B	-1.55T	-523.02B	-243.99B	-109.16B
Financing Cash Flow	1.31T	-293.00M	249.65B	-157.10B	-150.66B	-121.11B

YPF Sociedad Anonima Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 35.03
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For YPF, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 35.03 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 36.56, above the 50-day MA of 32.97, and above the 200-day MA of 32.49, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.41 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.20 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.14 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for YPF.

YPF Sociedad Anonima Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
E	79 Outperform	$56.96B	18.78	5.31%	5.44%	-3.84%	15.75%
NFG	78 Outperform	$7.43B	14.47	17.45%	2.57%	28.56%	593.72%
EC	74 Outperform	$20.17B	7.37	13.79%	18.39%	-7.45%	-28.80%
EQNR	69 Neutral	$58.28B	10.94	13.46%	7.43%	1.53%	-35.81%
PBR	69 Neutral	$76.65B	5.68	18.20%	13.69%	-11.63%	-15.67%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
YPF	54 Neutral	$14.49B	-29.04	-4.00%	―	-2.76%	56.81%

YPF Sociedad Anonima Corporate Events

YPF S.A. Repurchases Class XXI Notes Ahead of Maturity

YPF Sociedad Anónima announced that it repurchased a total of Ps. 29,308,529,179 of its Class XXI Notes between December 2 and December 3, 2025. These notes, which mature in January 2026, were initially issued in January 2023 under the company’s Frequent Issuer framework. The repurchase was executed at an average price of 99.46% of their nominal value, indicating a strategic move to manage its debt portfolio effectively.

YPF and Partners Sign Long-Term Shale Oil Export Agreement with ENAP

On December 5, 2025, YPF Sociedad Anónima, along with Vista Energy Lach S.A., Shell Argentina S.A., and Equinor Argentina SAU, announced a long-term agreement with Chile’s Empresa Nacional de Petróleo (ENAP) to export shale oil from the Vaca Muerta formation until June 2033. This agreement involves an initial export volume of 32,000 barrels per day by YPF, contributing to a total of up to 70,000 barrels per day, potentially generating $12 billion in revenue over the contract’s duration. The deal underscores the strategic collaboration among leading energy companies to enhance production and export capabilities, positioning Argentina as a reliable energy supplier to global markets.

YPF Announces Board of Directors Change Amidst Strategic Adjustments

On November 18, 2025, YPF Sociedad Anónima announced a change in its Board of Directors, with the resignation of Mr. Carlos Manuel Bastos as Regular Director for Class D shares due to personal reasons. Mr. Lisandro Catalán has been appointed as the new Regular Director for Class D shares by the Supervisory Committee, serving until the next Shareholders’ Meeting. This change reflects the company’s ongoing governance adjustments and may impact its strategic direction.

YPF Releases Q3 2025 Financial Statements

YPF Sociedad Anónima released its condensed interim consolidated financial statements for the period ending September 30, 2025. The report provides detailed financial information, including statements of financial position, comprehensive income, changes in shareholders’ equity, and cash flow. These statements are crucial for stakeholders to assess YPF’s financial health and operational performance, reflecting its strategic positioning in the energy market.

YPF Reports Mixed Q3 2025 Results Amid Rising Debt

In its third quarter 2025 report, YPF Sociedad Anónima announced a slight increase in adjusted EBITDA by 21% compared to the previous quarter, despite a 12% year-over-year decline in revenues. The company faced a net loss of $198 million, attributed to a decrease in hydrocarbon production and exports. However, YPF achieved a notable 17% increase in shale oil production, reflecting its strategic focus on this segment. The report highlights a challenging financial environment with a significant rise in net debt and free cash flow deficits, impacting its operational stability and market positioning.

YPF Reports Financial Results for Nine-Month Period Ending September 2025

On November 7, 2025, YPF Sociedad Anónima’s Board of Directors approved the condensed interim financial statements for the nine-month period ending September 30, 2025. The company reported a net loss of 181,638 million pesos for the period, despite achieving a total comprehensive income of 3,772,560 million pesos. This financial performance reflects the company’s ongoing challenges and strategic adjustments in the energy sector, impacting its stakeholders and market positioning.

YPF Advances in LNG Export Project with Key Agreements Finalized

On November 4, 2025, YPF Sociedad Anónima announced that the conditions for the Bareboat Charter Agreement with GOLAR MK II CORPORATION, initiated on May 2, 2025, have been fulfilled. This includes the Final Investment Decision by Southern Energy S.A., where YPF holds a 25% indirect interest, and the issuance of a 30-year Free Export Authorization for LNG by the National Secretariat of Energy. This development marks a significant step in YPF’s involvement in the LNG export sector, potentially enhancing its market position and offering long-term benefits to stakeholders.

YPF Completes Full Acquisition of Refinor

On October 28, 2025, YPF Sociedad Anónima acquired the remaining 50% shareholding in Refinería del Norte S.A. (Refinor), securing full ownership by purchasing 45,803,655 class ‘A’ shares from Hidrocarburos del Norte S.A. for $25.2 million. This strategic move allows YPF to consolidate its operations in the industrialization and marketing of hydrocarbons, potentially strengthening its market position and operational efficiency in the energy sector.

YPF Completes Share Buyback Program in October 2025

On October 14, 2025, YPF Sociedad Anónima completed the acquisition of 343,654 of its Class D ordinary shares on the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange at an average price of AR$40,832.70 per share, totaling AR$14,032,321,620. This strategic move, adhering to market regulations, marks the conclusion of a share buyback process approved by the company’s Board of Directors, potentially strengthening YPF’s market position and shareholder value.

YPF Announces Board of Directors Change Following Resignation

On October 9, 2025, YPF Sociedad Anónima announced a change in its Board of Directors, with the resignation of Class D Alternate Director, Mr. Hugo Rodríguez Cancina, due to personal reasons. This change in leadership could impact the company’s strategic direction and stakeholder relations, as board members play a crucial role in corporate governance and decision-making.

YPF Approves AR$19 Billion Share Buyback Plan

On October 9, 2025, YPF Sociedad Anónima’s Board of Directors approved a plan to acquire up to AR$19,056,000,000 worth of its own shares. This move is aimed at implementing share compensation plans and is backed by a reserve fund of AR$34,205,000,000, ensuring the company’s liquidity and solvency remain intact. The acquisition will occur within 90 days, with a daily purchase limit set by market regulations, potentially impacting the company’s stock value and shareholder interests.

YPF Announces Full Redemption of 2026 Notes

On October 9, 2025, YPF Sociedad Anónima announced its decision to fully redeem its outstanding 4.000%/9.000% Step Up Secured and Export-Backed Notes due 2026. The redemption is scheduled for November 12, 2025, at a redemption price equal to 100% of the principal amount plus accrued interest. This move reflects YPF’s strategic financial management and could impact its financial obligations and investor relations positively.

YPF Completes Acquisition of Vaca Muerta Inversiones

On September 29, 2025, YPF Sociedad Anónima completed the acquisition of Vaca Muerta Inversiones S.A.U., acquiring 100% of its share capital from Total Austral S.A. This strategic acquisition, previously announced on August 6, 2025, strengthens YPF’s position in the Vaca Muerta region, a key area for unconventional oil and gas development, and signifies a consolidation of its assets without any outstanding financial obligations between the companies.