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YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF)
NYSE:YPF
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YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF) AI Stock Analysis

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YPF

YPF Sociedad Anonima

(NYSE:YPF)

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Neutral 64 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$25.00
▲(2.46% Upside)
YPF's overall stock score reflects a balance of mixed financial performance and bearish technical indicators, offset by a favorable valuation and positive strategic developments from the earnings call. The company's challenges with revenue growth and cash flow are significant, but its strategic focus on production growth and cost efficiency offers potential upside.
Positive Factors
Production Growth
YPF's record shale oil production growth indicates strong operational capabilities and potential for increased market share in the oil sector.
Cost Efficiency
Significant reduction in lifting costs enhances YPF's operational efficiency, supporting margin sustainability and long-term profitability.
Strategic Acquisition
The acquisition strengthens YPF's asset base in a key region, potentially boosting production capacity and competitive advantage.
Negative Factors
Revenue Growth Decline
A decline in revenue growth poses challenges for YPF's ability to sustain financial performance and invest in future growth initiatives.
Negative Free Cash Flow
Negative free cash flow indicates potential liquidity challenges, limiting YPF's ability to fund operations and strategic projects.
Crude Oil Production Decrease
A decrease in crude oil production could impact YPF's revenue and market position, especially if not offset by other production gains.

YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

YPF Sociedad Anonima Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionYPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF) is Argentina's leading integrated oil and gas company, primarily engaged in the exploration, production, refining, and marketing of hydrocarbons. Established in 1922, YPF operates across various sectors, including upstream oil and gas exploration and production, downstream refining and distribution of petroleum products, and the provision of petrochemical products. The company also has a significant presence in renewable energy initiatives. YPF focuses on delivering energy solutions while contributing to the sustainable development of Argentina's energy resources.
How the Company Makes MoneyYPF generates revenue through multiple key streams: the exploration and production of oil and natural gas, where it sells crude oil and natural gas to domestic and international markets; refining operations, which transform crude oil into a variety of petroleum products such as gasoline, diesel, and lubricants for sale at retail stations and wholesale customers; and marketing activities, which include the distribution of its products through a widespread network of service stations. Additionally, YPF earns revenue from petrochemical operations and is increasingly investing in renewable energy projects, contributing to its earnings. Strategic partnerships with international oil companies and collaborations on technology and infrastructure projects further enhance its revenue potential.

YPF Sociedad Anonima Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 31, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted significant achievements in production growth, cost reduction, and strategic investments, showcasing a positive trajectory for YPF. However, challenges like international price volatility and negative cash flow indicate areas of concern.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record High Shale Oil Production
Achieved record high shale oil production of approximately 165,000 barrels per day, marking significant growth from 110,000 barrels per day in November '23. This represents a 70% increase in organic production in 25 months.
Significant Reduction in Lifting Costs
Achieved a 24% interannual reduction in lifting costs due to divesting mature fields and operational efficiencies.
VMOS Financial Closing and Expansion
Secured a syndicated loan for $2 billion to finance VMOS, marking the largest commercial loan for an infrastructure project in Argentina. This will enable YPF to ramp up production capacity significantly.
Technological Advancements in Operations
Launched three real-time intelligence centers to enhance operational efficiency and introduced micro pricing and smart fuel projects to increase profitability.
Strategic Acquisition
Acquired Prime Tier 1 Shell acreage from Total for $500 million, enhancing YPF's position in the Vaca Muerta region with a well inventory of over 500 wells.
Negative Updates
Impact of International Price Volatility
Realization price of oil decreased by 12% sequentially due to international market volatility, affecting revenue and profit margins.
Negative Free Cash Flow
Recorded a negative free cash flow of $355 million in Q2, mainly due to negative contributions from mature fields.
Decrease in Crude Oil Production
Crude oil production decreased by 8% sequentially, primarily driven by lower output from mature fields and divestments.
Company Guidance
During the second quarter of 2025 earnings call, YPF provided guidance on several key metrics and strategic developments, highlighting the company's resilience amidst international oil price volatility. Despite a 12% sequential decrease in the realization price of oil, YPF achieved a record high production of approximately 165,000 barrels per day. The company also emphasized a significant 24% interannual reduction in lifting costs, bolstered by its ongoing divestment from mature fields. YPF's adjusted EBITDA was reported at $1.12 billion, reflecting a 10% sequential decline, largely due to Brent price fluctuations and the impact of mature field exits. The company anticipates a net leverage ratio of 1.8x by year-end, following strategic acquisitions and refinancing activities. Additionally, YPF is progressing with its 4x4 plan, notably advancing midstream infrastructure projects like VMOS, which secured a $2 billion syndicated loan, and targeting further growth to close the year at around 190,000 barrels per day. The company also underscored its focus on becoming a pure unconventional ethane company by divesting conventional assets, aiming for enhanced profitability and resilience.

YPF Sociedad Anonima Financial Statement Overview

Summary
YPF has demonstrated strong recovery and growth with improved revenue, profitability, and equity management. The gross profit margin and net profit margin have improved significantly. However, high total liabilities and the potential impact of capital expenditures remain concerns.
Income Statement
65
Positive
YPF has shown a strong recovery with significant growth in total revenue from $6.6 billion in 2020 to $17.9 billion in 2024. The gross profit margin improved to 27.63% in 2024 from 5.06% in 2020, and net profit margin turned positive at 11.61% after a loss in prior years. EBIT and EBITDA margins also reflect robust profitability. However, revenue growth might slow as recent growth rates are based on recovery from a low base.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The company's debt-to-equity ratio improved from 1.07 in 2020 to 0.83 in 2024, indicating better leverage management. Return on equity (ROE) surged to 17.30%, showcasing enhanced profitability for shareholders. The equity ratio increased to 39.66%, reflecting solid equity backing for assets. Despite improvements, high total liabilities remain a concern for financial stability.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
The operating cash flow to net income ratio stands strong, indicating good cash generation relative to profits. However, free cash flow growth is modest given the large capital expenditures. The free cash flow to net income ratio suggests limited cash buffer, though operating cash flows have been robust. Cash management appears effective, albeit with some risks tied to capital expenditures.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue14.88T17.90T5.48T2.53T1.32T692.51B
Gross Profit3.94T4.94T969.46B650.78B294.87B33.39B
EBITDA3.15T3.90T2.84T631.62B424.00B107.06B
Net Income1.07T2.08T-1.56T2.23B257.00M-69.65B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets29.02B30.29T20.20T4.59T2.39T1.92T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.01B1.51B995.29B1.09B1.11B83.55B
Total Debt10.55B10.01T7.15T1.36T812.84B724.58B
Total Liabilities17.09B18.06T12.90T2.72T1.54T1.24T
Stockholders Equity11.69B12.01T7.22T1.85T839.89B677.23B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow327.25B213.43B183.27B204.53B165.21B94.60B
Operating Cash Flow3.26T5.60T1.77T736.66B400.01B209.22B
Investing Cash Flow-2.75T-5.23T-1.52T-523.02B-243.99B-109.16B
Financing Cash Flow-371.74B-293.66B33.16B-157.10B-150.66B-121.11B

YPF Sociedad Anonima Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price24.40
Price Trends
50DMA
29.32
Negative
100DMA
31.54
Negative
200DMA
34.00
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-1.23
Negative
RSI
50.24
Neutral
STOCH
46.85
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For YPF, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 24.4 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 25.63, below the 50-day MA of 29.32, and below the 200-day MA of 34.00, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.23 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.24 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 46.85 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for YPF.

YPF Sociedad Anonima Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
$53.76B20.384.83%5.11%-6.31%-33.87%
76
Outperform
$8.06B33.378.00%2.37%19.59%-21.86%
73
Outperform
$18.60B6.2715.94%19.93%-7.51%-29.04%
73
Outperform
$76.61B5.7919.48%13.67%-13.68%-13.96%
73
Outperform
$63.39B8.3919.22%8.69%1.19%-7.87%
65
Neutral
$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
64
Neutral
$10.32B7.8310.88%4.28%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
YPF
YPF Sociedad Anonima
24.40
-0.48
-1.93%
EC
Ecopetrol SA
8.98
1.11
14.10%
E
Eni SPA
35.41
5.55
18.59%
NFG
National Fuel Gas Company
85.81
27.07
46.08%
PBR
Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras
11.96
-0.94
-7.29%
EQNR
Equinor ASA
24.12
0.37
1.56%

YPF Sociedad Anonima Corporate Events

YPF Announces Board of Directors Change Following Resignation
Oct 9, 2025

On October 9, 2025, YPF Sociedad Anónima announced a change in its Board of Directors, with the resignation of Class D Alternate Director, Mr. Hugo Rodríguez Cancina, due to personal reasons. This change in leadership could impact the company’s strategic direction and stakeholder relations, as board members play a crucial role in corporate governance and decision-making.

YPF Approves AR$19 Billion Share Buyback Plan
Oct 9, 2025

On October 9, 2025, YPF Sociedad Anónima’s Board of Directors approved a plan to acquire up to AR$19,056,000,000 worth of its own shares. This move is aimed at implementing share compensation plans and is backed by a reserve fund of AR$34,205,000,000, ensuring the company’s liquidity and solvency remain intact. The acquisition will occur within 90 days, with a daily purchase limit set by market regulations, potentially impacting the company’s stock value and shareholder interests.

YPF Announces Full Redemption of 2026 Notes
Oct 9, 2025

On October 9, 2025, YPF Sociedad Anónima announced its decision to fully redeem its outstanding 4.000%/9.000% Step Up Secured and Export-Backed Notes due 2026. The redemption is scheduled for November 12, 2025, at a redemption price equal to 100% of the principal amount plus accrued interest. This move reflects YPF’s strategic financial management and could impact its financial obligations and investor relations positively.

YPF Completes Acquisition of Vaca Muerta Inversiones
Sep 30, 2025

On September 29, 2025, YPF Sociedad Anónima completed the acquisition of Vaca Muerta Inversiones S.A.U., acquiring 100% of its share capital from Total Austral S.A. This strategic acquisition, previously announced on August 6, 2025, strengthens YPF’s position in the Vaca Muerta region, a key area for unconventional oil and gas development, and signifies a consolidation of its assets without any outstanding financial obligations between the companies.

YPF Announces Organizational Restructuring Amid Strategic Focus
Aug 19, 2025

On August 18, 2025, YPF Sociedad Anonima announced significant changes to its organizational structure, effective August 19, 2025. The company’s Board of Directors approved the division of the CFO Vice-Presidency into two separate roles: the Vice-Presidency of Administration and Reporting, led by Juan José Mata, and the Vice-Presidency of Finance, led by Pedro Kearney. Additionally, Ariel Polotnianka was appointed as the interim Chief Audit Officer. These changes are part of YPF’s 4 x 4 Plan, aimed at enhancing administrative efficiency and addressing strategic project challenges. The company also accepted the resignation of Federico Barroetaveña from the CFO position for personal reasons.

YPF Releases Interim Financial Statements for June 2025
Aug 14, 2025

YPF Sociedad Anónima has released its condensed interim consolidated financial statements for the period ending June 30, 2025. These statements provide insights into the company’s financial position, including assets, liabilities, and equity, as well as comprehensive income and cash flow. The release of these financial statements is crucial for stakeholders to assess YPF’s financial health and operational efficiency, impacting its market positioning and investor confidence.

YPF Announces Board and Audit Committee Changes
Aug 7, 2025

On August 7, 2025, YPF Sociedad Anónima announced changes to its Board of Directors, with the resignation of Mr. Omar Gutierrez as Regular Director for Class D shares due to personal reasons. Mr. Guillermo Gustavo Koenig, previously an alternate director, was appointed as his replacement and also joined the Audit Committee, reflecting a strategic realignment in the company’s governance structure.

YPF Reports Strong Financial Performance in First Half of 2025
Aug 7, 2025

On August 7, 2025, YPF Sociedad Anónima’s Board of Directors approved the condensed interim financial statements for the six-month period ending June 30, 2025. The company reported a total net profit of 61,695 million pesos, with comprehensive income reaching 2,077,329 million pesos. The financial results reflect YPF’s robust performance and its strategic positioning in the energy sector, with significant contributions from both shareholders and non-controlling interests.

YPF Reports Mixed Results in Q2 2025 with Revenue Growth Amid Production Challenges
Aug 7, 2025

In its second quarter of 2025, YPF Sociedad Anónima reported a slight increase in revenues by 1% compared to the previous quarter, reaching $4,641 million. However, the company’s adjusted EBITDA saw a decline of 10% from the first quarter, while the net result showed a significant drop of 89% year-over-year. The company also reported a decrease in crude oil production by 8% and a decline in refinery utilization rates. Despite these challenges, YPF managed to increase its natural gas production by 6% quarter-over-quarter and reported a 20% rise in crude oil exports.

YPF Acquires Vaca Muerta Inversiones for $500 Million
Aug 6, 2025

On August 6, 2025, YPF Sociedad Anónima announced a significant strategic move by entering into a share purchase agreement with Total Austral S.A. to acquire Vaca Muerta Inversiones S.A.U. for USD 500 million. This acquisition, pending certain conditions, will grant YPF a 45% interest in the La Escalonada and Rincón La Ceniza blocks in Neuquén, enhancing its position in the Vaca Muerta region and potentially impacting its market standing and stakeholder interests.

YPF S.A. Receives Credit Rating Upgrade from Moody’s
Jul 23, 2025

On July 22, 2025, Moody’s Ratings upgraded YPF S.A.’s senior unsecured and secured notes ratings to ‘B2’ from ‘Caa1’, with a stable outlook. This upgrade, which also includes the Corporate Family Rating, reflects positively on YPF’s financial stability and could enhance its reputation and attractiveness to investors.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 02, 2025