Ypf Sociedad Anonima (YPF)
NYSE:YPF
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YPF Sociedad Anonima
(NYSE:YPF)
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Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
$44.00
▲(8.40% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/11/26
Overall score reflects mixed fundamentals (earnings/FCF volatility and recent net loss) partially offset by a strong latest earnings-call picture (record EBITDA, strong FCF, deleveraging, and shale growth targets). Technicals are mildly constructive but not strong, while valuation is weakened by the negative P/E and lack of dividend data.
Positive Factors
Shale production ramp-up
A rapid, sustained shift to shale (205k bpd, 76% of oil) increases high‑margin, scalable production that lowers unit economics and supports predictable volume growth. This structural mix change boosts long‑term cash generation and reduces reliance on mature conventional assets.
Negative Factors
Profitability volatility
Earnings and margin volatility undermine predictability of cash available for debt reduction and capex. Swinging to a 2025 net loss despite solid EBITDA indicates non‑operating, tax or FX exposures and raises the risk that cyclical downturns could erode equity and constrain long‑term investment plans.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Shale production ramp-up
A rapid, sustained shift to shale (205k bpd, 76% of oil) increases high‑margin, scalable production that lowers unit economics and supports predictable volume growth. This structural mix change boosts long‑term cash generation and reduces reliance on mature conventional assets.
Read all positive factors
YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$19.81B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.01M
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.2
Beta (1Y)0.23
Revenue Growth-4.12%
EPS Growth-132.96%
CountryUS
Employees21,594
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Integrated
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-3062.76
Shares Outstanding393,261,000
10 Day Avg. Volume2,291,137
30 Day Avg. Volume2,005,298
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.11
Price to Book (P/B)1.31
Price to Sales (P/S)0.78
P/FCF Ratio-120.11
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.48
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$52.17Price Target Upside28.52% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)5.94
Revenue Forecast (FY)$21.22B
YPF Sociedad Anonima Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
YPF Sociedad Anónima, an energy company, engages in the oil and gas upstream and downstream activities in Argentina. The company's upstream operations include the exploration, development, and production of crude oil, natural gas, and NGLs. Its do...
How the Company Makes Money
YPF generates revenue primarily through an integrated oil and gas model spanning upstream and downstream activities. Upstream, it earns sales revenue from producing crude oil, natural gas, and associated liquids and selling these volumes into dome...
YPF Sociedad Anonima Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a strong operational and financial quarter: record Q1 adjusted EBITDA and margin, robust shale production growth (205k bpd, +39% YoY), meaningful free cash flow generation ($871m) and rapid deleveraging (net leverage 1.57x). Operational efficiency gains (lower lifting costs, drilling/fracturing records) and strategic wins (La Angostura Sur scale, Halliburton electric fracturing, strong LNG project interest and M&A proceeds) dominate the narrative. Key challenges cited—demand softness prompting a temporary fuel passthrough pause, natural gas and conventional volume declines, infrastructure evacuation bottlenecks, and a higher estimated capex for Argentina LNG—are material but appear manageable given the company’s liquidity, deleveraging progress and planned midstream capacity expansions. Overall, positives materially outweigh the negatives.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth
Revenues of $4.95 billion, up 9% quarter-over-quarter and up 7% year-over-year, driven by rising international prices and alignment of domestic gasoline/diesel with international parity.
Negative Updates
Domestic Demand Contraction and Temporary Price Pass-Through Freeze
Late-March gasoline demand fell ~10% vs early March. YPF proactively postponed further passthrough of international price increases for 45 days (buffer mechanism) to mitigate demand impact—adds short-term commercial/market uncertainty.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth
Revenues of $4.95 billion, up 9% quarter-over-quarter and up 7% year-over-year, driven by rising international prices and alignment of domestic gasoline/diesel with international parity.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reaffirmed 2026 CapEx guidance of $5.5–$5.8 billion and said it will accelerate capital deployment in later quarters after Q1’s ~$1.0 billion invested (down 10% q/q), while targeting shale oil production of ~215,000 bpd for the year with a December exit rate of 250,000 bpd (Q1 shale = 205,000 bpd, +5% q/q, +39% y/y and 76% of total oil); a 19‑rig program is planned by year‑end and La Angostura Sur is guided toward a ~100,000 bpd plateau (current ~55,000 bpd, ~25% of YPF shale, breakeven < $40/bbl, lifting cost ≈ $3/bbl, ~19% developed). They expect continued deleveraging (net leverage 1.57x at Q1, down from a 2.1x peak; liquidity $1.7bn), reiterated strong cash generation (Q1 free cash flow $871m; ~ $504m M&A proceeds collected), maintained midstream/downstream throughput strength (Q1 processing 344,000 bpd) and margins ($19.1/boe in Q1, ≈$24/boe in April), and signaled a year‑end target for a final investment decision on the ~$24bn Argentina LNG project (including upstream) plus a CESA SPA for 2 Mtpa from late‑2027; management will reassess the temporary 45‑day domestic fuel pass‑through buffer when it ends mid‑May.YPF Sociedad Anonima Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
48
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 26.53T | 17.90T | 5.48T | 2.53T | 1.32T |
| Gross Profit | 7.16T | 4.94T | 969.46B | 650.78B | 294.87B |
| EBITDA | 7.32T | 3.90T | 1.08T | 631.62B | 367.45B |
| Net Income | -1.20T | 2.08T | -1.56T | 289.06B | 257.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 42.72T | 30.27T | 17.96T | 4.59T | 2.39T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.73T | 1.55T | 995.29B | 193.36B | 113.69B |
| Total Debt | 16.18T | 9.98T | 6.35T | 1.36T | 812.84B |
| Total Liabilities | 26.69T | 18.05T | 11.47T | 2.72T | 1.54T |
| Stockholders Equity | 15.69T | 12.00T | 6.42T | 1.85T | 839.89B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -171.22B | 477.00M | -7.57B | 204.53B | 165.21B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 7.20T | 5.87B | 1.58T | 736.66B | 400.01B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -8.02T | -5.51B | -1.55T | -523.02B | -243.99B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 750.17B | -293.00M | 249.65B | -157.10B | -150.66B |
YPF Sociedad Anonima Technical Analysis
Positive
40.59
Price Trends
43.42
Positive
40.07
Positive
35.90
Positive
Market Momentum
1.29
Negative
64.24
Neutral
80.13
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For YPF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 40.59 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 44.81, below the 50-day MA of 43.42, and above the 200-day MA of 35.90, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.29 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.24 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.13 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for YPF.
YPF Sociedad Anonima Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $121.78B | 5.38 | 27.02% | 14.10% | 3.35% | 133.76% | |
69 Neutral | $7.72B | 9.01 | 20.37% | 2.57% | 26.21% | 1517.69% | |
68 Neutral | $28.69B | 9.85 | 10.79% | 18.88% | -6.14% | -33.61% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
65 Neutral | $80.78B | 16.84 | 5.25% | 5.41% | -3.06% | 9.20% | |
64 Neutral | $99.81B | 8.48 | 13.33% | 7.43% | -1.94% | -30.62% | |
58 Neutral | $19.81B | 11.21 | -2.87% | ― | -4.12% | -132.96% |
* Energy Sector Average
YPF
YPF Sociedad Anonima
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E
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54.39
26.19
92.88%
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PBR
Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras
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EQNR
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38.81
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69.68%
YPF Sociedad Anonima Corporate Events
YPF Repurchases US$25 Million of Class XXX Notes Ahead of July 2026 Maturity
May 11, 2026
Between May 5 and May 8, 2026, YPF S.A. repurchased Class XXX Notes (YMCWO) with a total amount of Ps. 34,848,253,227.54, equivalent to a par value of US$25,016,631, and will hold the securities in its portfolio. The notes, originally issued in Ju...
YPF Delivers Record Shale and Refining Performance, Boosting Profit and Cash in Q1 2026
May 7, 2026
In the first quarter of 2026, YPF reported revenues of $4.95 billion and a sharp improvement in profitability, with adjusted EBITDA rising 24% quarter on quarter and 28% year on year to $1.59 billion, lifting its margin to 32%. Net income swung to...
YPF Reports Strong Q1 2026 Net Profit but Marginal Comprehensive Gain Amid Heavy OCI Hit
May 7, 2026
On May 7, 2026, YPF’s board approved the condensed interim financial statements for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, reporting a net profit of ARS 611,861 million, of which ARS 606,289 million was attributable to shareholders. However, nega...
YPF Boosts Vaca Muerta Control with Vista Energy Deal Closure
May 7, 2026
On May 7, 2026, YPF closed a previously announced transaction to acquire additional interests in three Vaca Muerta blocks from Vista Energy for about US$163 million plus an estimated US$41 million in adjustments and contingent consideration. The d...
YPF Shareholders Approve 2025 Results, Reserves Plan and Subsidiary Merger at April 30 Meeting
May 1, 2026
On April 30, 2026, YPF held a General Ordinary and Extraordinary and Special Class A and D shareholders’ meeting in Buenos Aires with 86.32% of capital represented, approving without changes the 2025 annual financial statements, the performa...
YPF Renews Board Chairman Horacio Marin’s Mandate on April 30, 2026
May 1, 2026
On April 30, 2026, the Board of Directors of YPF Sociedad Anónima met in Buenos Aires and resolved to renew the appointment of Horacio Daniel Marin as Chairman of the Board until the end of his current term. The decision, formally communicate...
YPF Takes Full Control of Southern Hub Assets After Pluspetrol Exit
May 1, 2026
On April 30, 2026, YPF Sociedad Anónima closed a previously announced transaction in which Pluspetrol S.A. transferred its entire interest in the Meseta Buena Esperanza, Aguada Villanueva and Las Tacanas areas, known collectively as the South...
YPF S.A. Buys Back Portion of Class XXX Notes Ahead of July 2026 Maturity
May 1, 2026
Between April 22 and April 29, 2026, YPF Sociedad Anónima repurchased its Class XXX Notes (YMCWO) for a total of Ps. 8,868,534,397.93, equivalent to a par value of US$6,373,594, to be held in the company’s portfolio. The notes, original...
YPF Moves to Absorb YPF Ventures and Pipeline Unit in Internal Merger
Apr 20, 2026
On April 17, 2026, YPF filed with the Argentine Securities Commission a prospectus and preliminary merger agreement for a merger by absorption of its wholly owned subsidiaries YPF Ventures S.A.U. and Oleoducto Loma Campana Lago Pellegrini S.A.U. U...
YPF Sets April 30, 2026 Shareholder Votes on 2025 Results, Reserves and New Share-Based Incentive Plan
Apr 9, 2026
On April 8, 2026, YPF’s board released its proposals for the April 30, 2026 general and special shareholders’ meetings, covering approval of the 2025 annual and consolidated financial statements and formal designation of government and...
YPF Calls April 30, 2026 Shareholders’ Meeting to Approve 2025 Results and Merger Moves
Apr 1, 2026
YPF has convened an Ordinary, Extraordinary and Special Class A and D shareholders’ meeting for April 30, 2026 in Buenos Aires to review and approve its financial statements for fiscal year 2025, address accumulated results and loss absorpti...
YPF Buys Back US$8 Million of Class XXX Notes Ahead of July 2026 Maturity
Mar 30, 2026
Between March 26 and March 30, 2026, YPF S.A. repurchased Class XXX notes (YMCWO) with a total outlay of ARS 10.9 billion, equivalent to a par value of US$7.99 million, which will be held in the company’s portfolio. The securities, originall...
YPF Files 2025 Form 20-F With U.S. SEC, Reinforcing Market Transparency
Mar 27, 2026
On March 26, 2026, YPF S.A. announced that it had filed its Annual Report on Form 20-F for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The filing, made available on both the SEC’s website and YPF...
YPF Repurchases US$15.7 Million of Class XXX Notes Ahead of 2026 Maturity
Mar 26, 2026
Between March 17 and March 20, 2026, YPF repurchased Class XXX Notes (YMCWO) with a par value of US$15.66 million, paying about Ps. 21.77 billion and an average 99.18% of nominal value, and will hold these securities in its portfolio. The notes, o...
YPF Repurchases 2026 Notes as Part of Liability Management Drive
Mar 17, 2026
Between March 10 and March 13, 2026, YPF S.A. repurchased portions of its Class XXX (YMCWO) and Class XXVII (YMCTO) notes, paying 11.4 billion pesos for Class XXX and 4.2 billion pesos for Class XXVII, equivalent to par values of US$8.2 million an...
YPF Announces Board Change for Class D Shares on March 13, 2026
Mar 13, 2026
On March 13, 2026, YPF’s board of directors accepted the resignation of Andrea Confini as Regular Director for Class D shares, citing strictly personal reasons. At the same meeting, the Supervisory Committee for Class D shares appointed Maxi...
YPF Approves Internal Merger to Absorb Venture and Pipeline Subsidiaries
Mar 13, 2026
At a board meeting held on March 13, 2026, YPF Sociedad Anónima approved a merger by absorption of its wholly owned subsidiaries YPF Ventures S.A.U. and Oleoducto Loma Campana Lago Pellegrini S.A.U., with retroactive effect from January 1, 20...
YPF Repurchases $35.5 Million in Class XXX Notes Ahead of July 2026 Maturity
Mar 10, 2026
Between March 3 and March 9, 2026, YPF repurchased Class XXX notes for 49.8 billion Argentine pesos, equivalent to a par value of $35.5 million, and will keep these securities in its portfolio. The peso‑denominated buyback, executed at an av...
YPF Files 2025 Consolidated Financials in Form 6-K Submission
Mar 6, 2026
On March 2026, YPF Sociedad Anónima filed its Form 6-K with U.S. regulators, providing consolidated financial statements for the fiscal years ended December 31, 2025, 2024 and 2023 in both U.S. dollars and Argentine pesos. The extensive filin...
YPF Board Clears 2025 Results and Proposes Major Reserve Reallocation
Feb 27, 2026
On February 26, 2026, YPF’s board approved the company’s consolidated financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2025, reporting a net loss of Ps. 1,048,272 million but total comprehensive income of Ps. 3,794,721 million unde...
YPF Posts Higher EBITDA but Swings to Loss on Softer 2025 Output and Prices
Feb 27, 2026
YPF reported its full-year 2025 and fourth-quarter 2025 results to the Argentine securities regulator on February 26, 2026, showing slightly lower annual revenues but higher adjusted EBITDA and a return to net losses after a profitable 2024. The c...
YPF Confirms Permanent Chief Audit Officer Appointment in February 2026
Feb 27, 2026
On February 26, 2026, YPF informed Argentine market authorities of a change in its first-level organizational structure, confirming the appointment of Ariel Polotnianka as Chief Audit Officer on a permanent basis. The decision, which follows an ea...
YPF Replaces Failed Manantiales Behr Sale With New US$410 Million Deal in Chubut
Feb 19, 2026
On February 18, 2026, YPF reported that its January 16, 2026 agreement to assign 100% of the conventional exploitation concession over the Manantiales Behr area in Chubut to Limay Energía became null and void on February 13, 2026 because the ...
YPF Brings Eni and XRG on Board Argentina LNG as Shell Pact Ends
Feb 12, 2026
On February 12, 2026, YPF announced it has signed a binding Joint Development Agreement with Eni and XRG to advance the Argentina LNG project, an integrated gas and liquefaction venture centered on unlocking the Vaca Muerta shale basin. The same d...
YPF to Redeem US$177.7 Million Class XXIX Notes Early on February 27, 2026
Feb 12, 2026
On February 11, 2026, YPF announced that it will carry out an early redemption of its Class XXIX notes, originally issued on May 28, 2024, with an initial nominal value of US$177.7 million and scheduled to mature on May 28, 2026. The notes, which ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.