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YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF)
NYSE:YPF
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YPF Sociedad Anonima
(NYSE:YPF)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$37.00
▲(51.58% Upside)
YPF's strong financial recovery and operational achievements are offset by financial challenges, including increased debt and negative free cash flow. The technical analysis indicates mixed market momentum, and while the valuation suggests potential undervaluation, the lack of dividend yield is a downside. The earnings call highlighted both significant achievements and financial pressures, resulting in a balanced stock score.
Positive Factors
Shale Oil Production Growth
The significant increase in shale oil production enhances YPF's competitive position in the energy sector, contributing to long-term revenue growth and market share expansion.
High Refinery Utilization
Achieving a high refinery utilization rate indicates operational efficiency and strong demand for YPF's refined products, supporting sustained profitability and competitive advantage.
LNG Project Approvals
Advancements in LNG projects position YPF to capitalize on future energy demand shifts, diversifying its portfolio and enhancing long-term growth prospects.
Negative Factors
Negative Free Cash Flow
Negative free cash flow indicates potential liquidity constraints and limits YPF's ability to invest in growth opportunities, posing a risk to financial stability.
Higher Net Debt
Increased net debt levels can strain YPF's financial flexibility and elevate risk, impacting its ability to manage economic downturns or invest in strategic initiatives.
Mature Fields Impact
The financial impact of mature fields highlights challenges in maintaining profitability and cash flow, potentially hindering YPF's operational efficiency and growth potential.
YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$10.91B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.17M
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.7
Beta (1Y)0.71
Revenue Growth4.28%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees21,594
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Integrated
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.13
Shares Outstanding393,261,000
10 Day Avg. Volume3,065,464
30 Day Avg. Volume2,171,865
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)N/A
P/FCF RatioN/A
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.02
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$39.30Price Target Upside61.00% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
YPF Sociedad Anonima Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionYPF Sociedad Anónima, an energy company, engages in the oil and gas upstream and downstream activities in Argentina. The company's upstream operations include the exploration, development, and production of crude oil, natural gas, and NGLs. Its downstream operations include the refining, marketing, transportation, and distribution of oil, petroleum products, petroleum derivatives, petrochemicals, LPG, and bio-fuels, as well as in gas separation, natural gas distribution operations, and power generation. As of December 31, 2021, it had interests in 119 oil and gas fields; approximately 643 million barrels (mmbbl) of oil; and approximately 2,447 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas. It also had a retail distribution network of 1,654 YPF-branded service stations; and 18 exploration permits. In addition, the company owns and operates three refineries with combined annual refining capacity of approximately 120 mmbbl; approximately 2,800 kilometers of crude oil pipelines with approximately 640,000 barrels of aggregate daily transportation capacity of refined products; and crude oil tankage of approximately 7 mmbbl, as well as maintains terminal facilities at five Argentine ports. Further, it participates in 21 power generation plants with an aggregate installed capacity of 3,091 megawatts; offers diesel, fertilizers, lubricants, phytosanitary products, and ensiling bags; and supplies diesel, gasoline, fuel oil, coal, asphalts, paraffin, and sulfur, CO2, decanted oil, and aromatic extract. The company was founded in 1977 and is headquartered in Buenos Aires, Argentina.
How the Company Makes MoneyYPF makes money through a diversified revenue model that includes upstream and downstream operations. In the upstream sector, the company generates revenue from the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas, which are sold in domestic and international markets. In the downstream sector, YPF earns income from refining crude oil into various petroleum products, which are then marketed and distributed through its extensive network of service stations across Argentina. Additionally, YPF is involved in the production of petrochemicals, which contribute to its earnings. The company also has strategic partnerships and joint ventures that enhance its operational capabilities and market reach, further supporting its revenue streams.
YPF Sociedad Anonima Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 31, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted significant achievements in production growth, cost reduction, and strategic investments, showcasing a positive trajectory for YPF. However, challenges like international price volatility and negative cash flow indicate areas of concern.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record High Shale Oil Production
Achieved record high shale oil production of approximately 165,000 barrels per day, marking significant growth from 110,000 barrels per day in November '23. This represents a 70% increase in organic production in 25 months.
Significant Reduction in Lifting Costs
Achieved a 24% interannual reduction in lifting costs due to divesting mature fields and operational efficiencies.
VMOS Financial Closing and Expansion
Secured a syndicated loan for $2 billion to finance VMOS, marking the largest commercial loan for an infrastructure project in Argentina. This will enable YPF to ramp up production capacity significantly.
Technological Advancements in Operations
Launched three real-time intelligence centers to enhance operational efficiency and introduced micro pricing and smart fuel projects to increase profitability.
Strategic Acquisition
Acquired Prime Tier 1 Shell acreage from Total for $500 million, enhancing YPF's position in the Vaca Muerta region with a well inventory of over 500 wells.
Negative Updates
Impact of International Price Volatility
Realization price of oil decreased by 12% sequentially due to international market volatility, affecting revenue and profit margins.
Negative Free Cash Flow
Recorded a negative free cash flow of $355 million in Q2, mainly due to negative contributions from mature fields.
Decrease in Crude Oil Production
Crude oil production decreased by 8% sequentially, primarily driven by lower output from mature fields and divestments.
Company Guidance
During the second quarter of 2025 earnings call, YPF provided guidance on several key metrics and strategic developments, highlighting the company's resilience amidst international oil price volatility. Despite a 12% sequential decrease in the realization price of oil, YPF achieved a record high production of approximately 165,000 barrels per day. The company also emphasized a significant 24% interannual reduction in lifting costs, bolstered by its ongoing divestment from mature fields. YPF's adjusted EBITDA was reported at $1.12 billion, reflecting a 10% sequential decline, largely due to Brent price fluctuations and the impact of mature field exits. The company anticipates a net leverage ratio of 1.8x by year-end, following strategic acquisitions and refinancing activities. Additionally, YPF is progressing with its 4x4 plan, notably advancing midstream infrastructure projects like VMOS, which secured a $2 billion syndicated loan, and targeting further growth to close the year at around 190,000 barrels per day. The company also underscored its focus on becoming a pure unconventional ethane company by divesting conventional assets, aiming for enhanced profitability and resilience.YPF Sociedad Anonima Financial Statement Overview
Summary
YPF has demonstrated strong recovery and growth with improved revenue, profitability, and equity management. The gross profit margin and net profit margin have improved significantly. However, high total liabilities and the potential impact of capital expenditures remain concerns.Income Statement
YPF has shown a strong recovery with significant growth in total revenue from $6.6 billion in 2020 to $17.9 billion in 2024. The gross profit margin improved to 27.63% in 2024 from 5.06% in 2020, and net profit margin turned positive at 11.61% after a loss in prior years. EBIT and EBITDA margins also reflect robust profitability. However, revenue growth might slow as recent growth rates are based on recovery from a low base.85
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
The company's debt-to-equity ratio improved from 1.07 in 2020 to 0.83 in 2024, indicating better leverage management. Return on equity (ROE) surged to 17.30%, showcasing enhanced profitability for shareholders. The equity ratio increased to 39.66%, reflecting solid equity backing for assets. Despite improvements, high total liabilities remain a concern for financial stability.78
Positive
Cash Flow
The operating cash flow to net income ratio stands strong, indicating good cash generation relative to profits. However, free cash flow growth is modest given the large capital expenditures. The free cash flow to net income ratio suggests limited cash buffer, though operating cash flows have been robust. Cash management appears effective, albeit with some risks tied to capital expenditures.72
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 19.21T | 17.90T | 5.39T | 2.53T | 1.24T | 659.60B |
| Gross Profit | 5.07T | 4.94T | 3.14B | 602.50B | 214.89B | 33.39B |
| EBITDA | 3.15T | 3.90T | ― | 6.71B | 424.00B | 205.22B |
| Net Income | 1.52T | 2.08T | -1.56T | 2.23B | 26.00M | -71.02B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 32.05T | 30.29T | 20.20T | 4.59T | 2.39T | 1.92T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.33T | 1.51B | 995.29B | 193.36B | 113.69B | 83.55B |
| Total Debt | 11.07T | 10.01T | 6.35T | 1.36T | 812.84B | 724.58B |
| Total Liabilities | 19.10T | 18.06T | 11.47T | 2.72T | 1.54T | 1.24T |
| Stockholders Equity | 12.61T | 12.01T | 6.42T | 1.85T | 839.89B | 677.23B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 279.36B | 213.43B | 183.27B | 204.53B | 165.21B | 94.60B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.52T | 5.60T | 1.77T | 736.66B | 400.01B | 209.22B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.07T | -5.23T | -1.52T | -523.02B | -243.99B | -109.16B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -543.55B | -293.66B | 33.16B | -157.10B | -150.66B | -121.11B |
YPF Sociedad Anonima Technical Analysis
Negative
24.41
Price Trends
31.31
Negative
32.57
Negative
35.22
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.62
Positive
31.20
Neutral
23.36
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For YPF, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 24.41 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 29.02, below the 50-day MA of 31.31, and below the 200-day MA of 35.22, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.62 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 31.20 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 23.36 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for YPF.
YPF Sociedad Anonima Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | 53.26B | 20.13 | 4.99% | 6.77% | -6.31% | -33.87% | |
74 Outperform | 62.03B | 8.16 | 19.62% | 8.71% | 1.19% | -7.87% | |
73 Outperform | 135.95B | 10.75 | 13.37% | 5.76% | -10.73% | -36.76% | |
73 Outperform | 19.07B | 6.46 | 14.38% | 19.86% | -7.51% | -29.04% | |
73 Outperform | 80.07B | 6.09 | 18.86% | 13.02% | -13.68% | -13.96% | |
72 Outperform | $10.91B | 8.74 | 10.88% | ― | 4.28% | ― | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% |
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
YPF
YPF Sociedad Anonima
24.41
0.76
3.21%
EC
Ecopetrol SA
9.01
0.79
9.61%
E
Eni SPA
35.07
4.54
14.87%
NFG
National Fuel Gas Company
87.38
28.86
49.32%
PBR
Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras
12.81
0.21
1.67%
EQNR
Equinor ASA
24.57
1.45
6.27%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.