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YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF)
NYSE:YPF
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YPF Sociedad Anonima
(NYSE:YPF)
Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$37.00
▲(19.70%Upside)
Positive Factors
Macroeconomic Environment
Supportive macroeconomic factors, such as inflation decompressing and better fiscal figures, provide a positive backdrop for the stock.
Operational Performance
YPF's adjusted EBITDA came in 6% above expectations, indicating strong operational performance.
Strategic Development
The company's strategy to focus on the development of Vaca Muerta is highlighted by the reduction in lifting costs for unconventional fields.
Negative Factors
Cash Flow Challenges
There is concern about strong stock oil price volatility and the fact that YPF is free cash flow negative with no dividends expected in the foreseeable future.
Financial Concerns
FCFE remained negative due to high capital expenditure on the development of Vaca Muerta, leading to an increase in net debt.
Market Reaction
A negative market reaction is expected due to the miss versus consensus.
YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$12.15B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.63M
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.2
Beta (1Y)0.74
Revenue Growth8.58%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees21,594
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength42
IndustryOil & Gas Integrated
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.04
Shares Outstanding393,261,000
10 Day Avg. Volume1,285,515
30 Day Avg. Volume1,630,253
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.40
Price to Book (P/B)1.28
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio-31.13
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$45.00Price Target Upside45.58% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
YPF Sociedad Anonima Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionYPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF) is an integrated energy company based in Argentina, primarily engaged in the exploration, production, refining, and distribution of oil and gas. The company operates across various sectors, including upstream activities such as exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas, and downstream operations like refining, marketing, and distribution of petroleum products. YPF also produces a range of petrochemicals and has a presence in the renewable energy sector.
How the Company Makes MoneyYPF makes money through a diversified revenue model that includes upstream and downstream operations. In the upstream sector, the company generates revenue from the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas, which are sold in domestic and international markets. In the downstream sector, YPF earns income from refining crude oil into various petroleum products, which are then marketed and distributed through its extensive network of service stations across Argentina. Additionally, YPF is involved in the production of petrochemicals, which contribute to its earnings. The company also has strategic partnerships and joint ventures that enhance its operational capabilities and market reach, further supporting its revenue streams.
YPF Sociedad Anonima Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: 2.11%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 07, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mix of strong operational performance, particularly in shale oil production and refinery utilization, alongside strategic advancements in LNG projects. However, financial challenges such as a net loss, negative cash flow, and increased debt were also highlighted. The sentiment is balanced with notable achievements and significant financial pressures.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Adjusted EBITDA Growth
Adjusted EBITDA reached $1.24 billion, marking a significant sequential growth of 48%.
Record Shale Oil Production
Shale oil production increased by 31% compared to Q1 last year, representing 55% of total oil production.
High Refinery Utilization
Reached a record high refinery utilization rate of 94% with enhanced operational efficiency.
Digital Transformation Initiatives
Inaugurated a real-time intelligence center for the downstream segment to optimize resource utilization.
LNG Project Approvals
Significant progress in LNG projects, including environmental approvals and agreements for future capacity expansion.
Debt Refinancing Success
Issued a 9-year unsecured international bond for $1.1 billion at a yield of 8.5%.
Oil Export Growth
Oil exports grew by 34% inter-annually, reaching 36,000 barrels per day.
Negative Updates
Net Loss Reported
Q1 net result was a loss of $10 million, although an improvement from Q4 last year.
Negative Free Cash Flow
Reported negative free cash flow of $957 million, impacted by mature fields and acquisitions.
Revenue Decline
Revenue of $4.61 billion in Q1 reflected a 3% sequential decline.
Higher Net Debt
Net debt increased to $8.3 billion, with a net leverage ratio of 1.8x.
Mature Fields Impact
Mature fields resulted in an adjusted EBITDA loss of $106 million and a significant cash flow impact.
Company Guidance
During the first quarter of 2025, YPF reported a strong performance with adjusted EBITDA reaching $1.24 billion, marking a 48% sequential growth. This growth was largely attributed to increased profitability from mature fields and improved refining and marketing margins. Shale oil production saw a 31% year-over-year increase, representing 55% of total oil production. YPF also achieved record drilling performance, with a standout achievement of drilling 551 meters per day. The company reported a Q1 revenue of $4.61 billion, a 3% sequential decline but a 7% year-over-year increase, driven by shale activity and higher local fuel prices. YPF's CapEx for Q1 was $1.21 billion, with 75% allocated to unconventional assets, aligning with their annual guidance of $5 billion to $5.2 billion. The company maintained a net debt of $8.3 billion and a net leverage ratio of 1.8x, with plans to reduce it to 1.5x-1.6x by year-end. YPF also made strides in its LNG projects, securing agreements expected to be operational between 2027 and 2028.YPF Sociedad Anonima Financial Statement Overview
Summary
YPF has demonstrated strong recovery and growth with improved revenue, profitability, and equity management. The gross profit margin and net profit margin have improved significantly. However, high total liabilities and the potential impact of capital expenditures remain concerns.Income Statement
YPF has shown a strong recovery with significant growth in total revenue from $6.6 billion in 2020 to $17.9 billion in 2024. The gross profit margin improved to 27.63% in 2024 from 5.06% in 2020, and net profit margin turned positive at 11.61% after a loss in prior years. EBIT and EBITDA margins also reflect robust profitability. However, revenue growth might slow as recent growth rates are based on recovery from a low base.85
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
The company's debt-to-equity ratio improved from 1.07 in 2020 to 0.83 in 2024, indicating better leverage management. Return on equity (ROE) surged to 17.30%, showcasing enhanced profitability for shareholders. The equity ratio increased to 39.66%, reflecting solid equity backing for assets. Despite improvements, high total liabilities remain a concern for financial stability.78
Positive
Cash Flow
The operating cash flow to net income ratio stands strong, indicating good cash generation relative to profits. However, free cash flow growth is modest given the large capital expenditures. The free cash flow to net income ratio suggests limited cash buffer, though operating cash flows have been robust. Cash management appears effective, albeit with some risks tied to capital expenditures.72
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 17.90T | 5.39T | 2.53T | 1.24T | 659.60B |
| Gross Profit | 4.94T | 3.14B | 602.50B | 214.89B | 33.39B |
| EBITDA | 3.90T | ― | 6.71B | 424.00B | 205.22B |
| Net Income | 2.08T | -1.56T | 2.23B | 26.00M | -71.02B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 30.29T | 20.20T | 4.59T | 2.39T | 1.92T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.55T | 995.29B | 193.36B | 113.69B | 83.55B |
| Total Debt | 10.01T | 6.35T | 1.36T | 812.84B | 724.58B |
| Total Liabilities | 18.06T | 11.47T | 2.72T | 1.54T | 1.24T |
| Stockholders Equity | 12.01T | 6.42T | 1.85T | 839.89B | 677.23B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 213.43B | 183.27B | 204.53B | 165.21B | 94.60B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 5.60T | 1.77T | 736.66B | 400.01B | 209.22B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -5.23T | -1.52T | -523.02B | -243.99B | -109.16B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -293.66B | 33.16B | -157.10B | -150.66B | -121.11B |
YPF Sociedad Anonima Technical Analysis
Negative
30.91
Price Trends
33.99
Negative
33.58
Negative
34.44
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.89
Positive
40.09
Neutral
29.98
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For YPF, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 30.91 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 32.41, below the 50-day MA of 33.99, and below the 200-day MA of 34.44, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.89 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.09 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.98 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for YPF.
YPF Sociedad Anonima Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (67)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
83 Outperform | $18.38B | 5.38 | 18.64% | 70.35% | -2.26% | -20.04% | |
78 Outperform | $138.79B | 10.19 | 11.75% | 4.59% | -9.86% | -32.59% | |
75 Outperform | $76.56B | 9.36 | 11.25% | 27.24% | -10.84% | -61.73% | |
73 Outperform | $50.24B | 18.48 | 4.78% | 3.38% | -2.17% | -25.00% | |
73 Outperform | $65.17B | 8.10 | 18.28% | 5.75% | 3.96% | -1.69% | |
72 Outperform | $12.15B | 7.17 | 15.54% | ― | 8.58% | ― | |
67 Neutral | $14.98B | 9.65 | 6.33% | 5.29% | 4.07% | -66.96% |
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
YPF
YPF Sociedad Anonima
30.91
10.72
53.10%
EC
Ecopetrol SA
8.88
-0.86
-8.83%
E
Eni SPA
33.00
3.87
13.29%
PBR
Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras
12.30
-0.69
-5.31%
EQNR
Equinor ASA
25.73
1.17
4.76%
TTE
TotalEnergies
61.74
-3.51
-5.38%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.