YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $13.67B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.04M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 7.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.85
• Revenue Growth: 8.58%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 21,594
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 48
• Industry: Oil & Gas Integrated
• EPS (TTM): -0.04
• Shares Outstanding: 393,261,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,703,450
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,044,727
• PEG Ratio: 0.04
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.50
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 4.85
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $41.00
• Price Target Upside: 14.14% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3

• Rating: 72 Outperform
• Price Target: $37.00 ▲(3.01%Upside)

YPF's strong financial recovery and operational achievements are offset by financial challenges, including increased debt and negative free cash flow. The technical analysis indicates mixed market momentum, and while the valuation suggests potential undervaluation, the lack of dividend yield is a downside. The earnings call highlighted both significant achievements and financial pressures, resulting in a balanced stock score.

Positive Factors

Macroeconomic Environment

Supportive macroeconomic factors, such as inflation decompressing and better fiscal figures, provide a positive backdrop for the stock.

Operational Performance

YPF's adjusted EBITDA came in 6% above expectations, indicating strong operational performance.

Strategic Partnerships

YPF has just announced a project development agreement with Shell for the first phase of its Argentina LNG project, which is expected to enhance its growth prospects.

Negative Factors

Financial Performance

FCFE remained negative due to high capital expenditure on the development of Vaca Muerta, leading to an increase in net debt.

Market Reaction

A negative market reaction is expected due to the miss versus consensus.

Stock Price Volatility

There is concern about strong stock oil price volatility and the fact that YPF is free cash flow negative with no dividends expected in the foreseeable future.

YPF Sociedad Anonima Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

YPF Sociedad Anónima, an energy company, engages in the oil and gas upstream and downstream activities in Argentina. The company's upstream operations include the exploration, development, and production of crude oil, natural gas, and NGLs. Its downstream operations include the refining, marketing, transportation, and distribution of oil, petroleum products, petroleum derivatives, petrochemicals, LPG, and bio-fuels, as well as in gas separation, natural gas distribution operations, and power generation. As of December 31, 2021, it had interests in 119 oil and gas fields; approximately 643 million barrels (mmbbl) of oil; and approximately 2,447 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas. It also had a retail distribution network of 1,654 YPF-branded service stations; and 18 exploration permits. In addition, the company owns and operates three refineries with combined annual refining capacity of approximately 120 mmbbl; approximately 2,800 kilometers of crude oil pipelines with approximately 640,000 barrels of aggregate daily transportation capacity of refined products; and crude oil tankage of approximately 7 mmbbl, as well as maintains terminal facilities at five Argentine ports. Further, it participates in 21 power generation plants with an aggregate installed capacity of 3,091 megawatts; offers diesel, fertilizers, lubricants, phytosanitary products, and ensiling bags; and supplies diesel, gasoline, fuel oil, coal, asphalts, paraffin, and sulfur, CO2, decanted oil, and aromatic extract. The company was founded in 1977 and is headquartered in Buenos Aires, Argentina.

How the Company Makes Money

YPF makes money through a diversified revenue model that includes upstream and downstream operations. In the upstream sector, the company generates revenue from the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas, which are sold in domestic and international markets. In the downstream sector, YPF earns income from refining crude oil into various petroleum products, which are then marketed and distributed through its extensive network of service stations across Argentina. Additionally, YPF is involved in the production of petrochemicals, which contribute to its earnings. The company also has strategic partnerships and joint ventures that enhance its operational capabilities and market reach, further supporting its revenue streams.

YPF Sociedad Anonima Financial Statement Overview

Summary

YPF has demonstrated strong recovery and growth with improved revenue, profitability, and equity management. The gross profit margin and net profit margin have improved significantly. However, high total liabilities and the potential impact of capital expenditures remain concerns.

Income Statement

YPF has shown a strong recovery with significant growth in total revenue from $6.6 billion in 2020 to $17.9 billion in 2024. The gross profit margin improved to 27.63% in 2024 from 5.06% in 2020, and net profit margin turned positive at 11.61% after a loss in prior years. EBIT and EBITDA margins also reflect robust profitability. However, revenue growth might slow as recent growth rates are based on recovery from a low base.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio improved from 1.07 in 2020 to 0.83 in 2024, indicating better leverage management. Return on equity (ROE) surged to 17.30%, showcasing enhanced profitability for shareholders. The equity ratio increased to 39.66%, reflecting solid equity backing for assets. Despite improvements, high total liabilities remain a concern for financial stability.

Cash Flow

The operating cash flow to net income ratio stands strong, indicating good cash generation relative to profits. However, free cash flow growth is modest given the large capital expenditures. The free cash flow to net income ratio suggests limited cash buffer, though operating cash flows have been robust. Cash management appears effective, albeit with some risks tied to capital expenditures.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
17.90T	5.39T	2.53T	1.24T	659.60B
	Gross Profit
4.94T	3.14B	602.50B	214.89B	33.39B
	EBIT
1.16T	-1.25B	399.20B	148.95B	-38.31B
	EBITDA
3.90T	―	6.71B	424.00B	205.22B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
2.08T	-1.56T	2.23B	26.00M	-71.02B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.55T	995.29B	193.36B	113.69B	83.55B
	Total Assets
30.29T	20.20T	4.59T	2.39T	1.92T
	Total Debt
10.01T	6.35T	1.36T	812.84B	724.58B
	Net Debt
8.86T	5.55T	1.22T	750.16B	669.96B
	Total Liabilities
18.06T	11.47T	2.72T	1.54T	1.24T
	Stockholders Equity
12.01T	6.42T	1.85T	839.89B	677.23B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
213.43B	183.27B	204.53B	165.21B	94.60B
	Operating Cash Flow
5.60T	1.77T	736.66B	400.01B	209.22B
	Investing Cash Flow
-5.23T	-1.52T	-523.02B	-243.99B	-109.16B
	Financing Cash Flow
-293.66B	33.16B	-157.10B	-150.66B	-121.11B

YPF Sociedad Anonima Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 35.92
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For YPF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 35.92 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 35.63, above the 50-day MA of 33.13, and above the 200-day MA of 33.24, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.42 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 55.94 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 48.84 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for YPF.

YPF Sociedad Anonima Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TTE	78 Outperform	$128.26B	9.99	11.75%	5.46%	-9.86%	-32.59%
EC	77 Outperform	$18.54B	5.47	18.64%	69.18%	-2.26%	-20.04%
PBR	75 Outperform	$71.85B	8.83	11.25%	8.92%	-10.84%	-61.73%
E	74 Outperform	$47.47B	17.41	4.78%	3.62%	-2.17%	-25.00%
EQNR	73 Outperform	$68.65B	7.94	18.28%	5.87%	3.96%	-1.69%
YPF	72 Outperform	$13.67B	7.82	15.54%	―	8.58%	―
Sector *	58 Neutral	$7.37B	3.39	-4.49%	10.01%	0.82%	-49.15%