YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF)
NYSE:YPF
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YPF Sociedad Anonima
(NYSE:YPF)
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Rating:57Neutral
Price Target:
$45.00
▲(5.41% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/13/26
The score is held back primarily by volatile financial results (2025 net loss, inconsistent free cash flow, and rising leverage). Offsetting this are supportive technical momentum and a constructive earnings-call outlook with clear 2026 targets and expected leverage improvement, while valuation is penalized by a negative P/E and no dividend yield provided.
Positive Factors
Rapid shale production ramp
Sustained, high-percentage shale growth indicates scalable, repeatable development in Vaca Muerta. Larger shale volumes materially raise long-term cash generation potential, deepen competitive advantage in Argentina, and support higher recovery and reserves conversion even through commodity cycles.
Negative Factors
Very high capex and Argentina LNG scale-up risk
Large, multi-year capital commitments for LNG and upstream expansion require sustained external financing and create execution risk. Cost overruns, funding shortfalls or delays can push out returns, raise leverage and crowd out free cash flow for ordinary distributions and organic projects.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Rapid shale production ramp
Sustained, high-percentage shale growth indicates scalable, repeatable development in Vaca Muerta. Larger shale volumes materially raise long-term cash generation potential, deepen competitive advantage in Argentina, and support higher recovery and reserves conversion even through commodity cycles.
Read all positive factors
YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$17.93B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)3.01M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.45
Revenue Growth-2.76%
EPS Growth56.81%
CountryUS
Employees21,594
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Integrated
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.67
Shares Outstanding393,261,000
10 Day Avg. Volume3,591,987
30 Day Avg. Volume3,006,871
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.11
Price to Book (P/B)1.31
Price to Sales (P/S)0.78
P/FCF Ratio-120.11
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.39K
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.06
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.83
Enterprise Value/Ebitda3.74
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$48.30Price Target Upside13.14% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)4.15
Revenue Forecast (FY)$18.33B
YPF Sociedad Anonima Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
YPF Sociedad Anónima, an energy company, engages in the oil and gas upstream and downstream activities in Argentina. The company's upstream operations include the exploration, development, and production of crude oil, natural gas, and NGLs. Its do...
How the Company Makes Money
YPF makes money through multiple integrated revenue streams across the oil and gas value chain. (1) Upstream (Exploration & Production): YPF generates revenue by producing crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids and selling these volumes i...
YPF Sociedad Anonima Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 08, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a predominantly positive operational and strategic picture: record EBITDA and margins, rapid shale production growth, significant reserve expansion, major cost reductions, strong refining performance, successful M&A and financing activity, and clear 2026 targets. The main negatives are substantial one-off cash outflows and a negative FY free cash flow driven by acquisitions and exit costs, large near-term CapEx and project financing needs (notably for LNG), evacuation bottlenecks that may constrain H1 2026 growth, and upcoming debt maturities. Management provided concrete guidance and financing actions to mitigate risks and expects improved leverage and EBITDA in 2026, so the positives materially outweigh the negatives.Positive Updates
Record EBITDA and Margin Expansion
Adjusted EBITDA reached $5.0 billion in 2025 (highest in 10 years and 3rd largest in company history), up 8% year-on-year; EBITDA margin increased from 24% in 2024 to 27% in 2025. Q4 adjusted EBITDA was nearly $1.3 billion, representing ~53% internal growth versus prior period.
Negative Updates
Negative Full-Year Free Cash Flow and One-Off Cash Outflows
FY 2025 free cash flow was negative $1.8 billion, driven by ~$550M for Vaca Muerta acquisitions, ~$530M one-off exit costs from mature fields, ~$160M infrastructure contributions and prepayments; adjusted for these extraordinary items free cash flow would have been negative ~$500M.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record EBITDA and Margin Expansion
Adjusted EBITDA reached $5.0 billion in 2025 (highest in 10 years and 3rd largest in company history), up 8% year-on-year; EBITDA margin increased from 24% in 2024 to 27% in 2025. Q4 adjusted EBITDA was nearly $1.3 billion, representing ~53% internal growth versus prior period.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
YPF’s 2026 guidance calls for shale oil production of roughly 215,000 bpd (with a year‑end exit rate of ~250,000 bpd), adjusted EBITDA of $5.8–$6.2 billion assuming Brent at $63/bbl, CapEx of $5.5–$5.8 billion (≈70% to shale), and a neutral-to‑slightly‑negative free cash flow profile that, together with expected M&A proceeds (e.g., Metrogas) and prior cash of ~$1.2 billion, should bring net leverage down from 1.9x at YE‑2025 to about 1.6–1.7x; YPF also plans ~ $300 million in contributions to infrastructure projects (VMOS/SESA), notes VMOS is >50% complete with first oil expected early‑2027, targets FID for Argentina LNG in 2026 (SESA tolling phase ~6 mtpa with YPF 25% stake; full phase ~12 mtpa via two FLNGs, project CapEx ≈ $20 billion excl. upstream, ~70% leverage, CODs 2030/2031) and is evaluating a potential +7 mtpa third FLNG (FID 2027/28, COD ~2032), while 2026 debt maturities total ~ $2.1 billion.YPF Sociedad Anonima Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
48
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 26.53T | 17.90T | 5.48T | 2.53T | 1.32T |
| Gross Profit | 7.16T | 4.94T | 969.46B | 650.78B | 294.87B |
| EBITDA | 7.32T | 3.90T | 1.08T | 631.62B | 367.45B |
| Net Income | -1.20T | 2.08T | -1.56T | 289.06B | 257.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 42.72T | 30.27T | 17.96T | 4.59T | 2.39T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.73T | 1.55T | 995.29B | 193.36B | 113.69B |
| Total Debt | 16.18T | 9.98T | 6.35T | 1.36T | 812.84B |
| Total Liabilities | 26.69T | 18.05T | 11.47T | 2.72T | 1.54T |
| Stockholders Equity | 15.69T | 12.00T | 6.42T | 1.85T | 839.89B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -171.22B | 477.00M | -7.57B | 204.53B | 165.21B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 7.20T | 5.87B | 1.58T | 736.66B | 400.01B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -8.02T | -5.51B | -1.55T | -523.02B | -243.99B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 750.17B | -293.00M | 249.65B | -157.10B | -150.66B |
YPF Sociedad Anonima Technical Analysis
Positive
42.69
Price Trends
39.52
Positive
37.67
Positive
34.13
Positive
Market Momentum
1.59
Positive
54.32
Neutral
26.74
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For YPF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 42.69 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 42.35, above the 50-day MA of 39.52, and above the 200-day MA of 34.13, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.59 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.32 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.74 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for YPF.
YPF Sociedad Anonima Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $126.83B | 3.80 | 27.02% | 14.10% | -11.63% | -15.67% | |
70 Outperform | $9.03B | 10.05 | 21.09% | 2.57% | 28.56% | 593.72% | |
67 Neutral | $28.78B | 12.89 | 11.20% | 18.88% | -7.45% | -28.80% | |
66 Neutral | $101.21B | 12.11 | 3.44% | 7.43% | 1.53% | -35.81% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
62 Neutral | $83.55B | 19.50 | 5.20% | 5.41% | -3.84% | 15.75% | |
57 Neutral | $17.93B | -17.16 | -2.22% | ― | -2.76% | 56.81% |
* Energy Sector Average
YPF
YPF Sociedad Anonima
42.69
12.66
42.16%
EC
Ecopetrol SA
13.91
5.60
67.45%
E
Eni SPA
55.68
30.39
120.18%
NFG
National Fuel Gas Company
95.03
20.41
27.35%
PBR
Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras
20.69
10.14
96.10%
EQNR
Equinor ASA
38.55
16.30
73.24%
YPF Sociedad Anonima Corporate Events
YPF Sets April 30, 2026 Shareholder Votes on 2025 Results, Reserves and New Share-Based Incentive Plan
Apr 9, 2026
On April 8, 2026, YPF’s board released its proposals for the April 30, 2026 general and special shareholders’ meetings, covering approval of the 2025 annual and consolidated financial statements and formal designation of government and...
YPF Calls April 30, 2026 Shareholders’ Meeting to Approve 2025 Results and Merger Moves
Apr 1, 2026
YPF has convened an Ordinary, Extraordinary and Special Class A and D shareholders’ meeting for April 30, 2026 in Buenos Aires to review and approve its financial statements for fiscal year 2025, address accumulated results and loss absorpti...
YPF Buys Back US$8 Million of Class XXX Notes Ahead of July 2026 Maturity
Mar 30, 2026
Between March 26 and March 30, 2026, YPF S.A. repurchased Class XXX notes (YMCWO) with a total outlay of ARS 10.9 billion, equivalent to a par value of US$7.99 million, which will be held in the company’s portfolio. The securities, originall...
YPF Files 2025 Form 20-F With U.S. SEC, Reinforcing Market Transparency
Mar 27, 2026
On March 26, 2026, YPF S.A. announced that it had filed its Annual Report on Form 20-F for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The filing, made available on both the SEC’s website and YPF...
YPF Repurchases US$15.7 Million of Class XXX Notes Ahead of 2026 Maturity
Mar 26, 2026
Between March 17 and March 20, 2026, YPF repurchased Class XXX Notes (YMCWO) with a par value of US$15.66 million, paying about Ps. 21.77 billion and an average 99.18% of nominal value, and will hold these securities in its portfolio. The notes, o...
YPF Repurchases 2026 Notes as Part of Liability Management Drive
Mar 17, 2026
Between March 10 and March 13, 2026, YPF S.A. repurchased portions of its Class XXX (YMCWO) and Class XXVII (YMCTO) notes, paying 11.4 billion pesos for Class XXX and 4.2 billion pesos for Class XXVII, equivalent to par values of US$8.2 million an...
YPF Announces Board Change for Class D Shares on March 13, 2026
Mar 13, 2026
On March 13, 2026, YPF’s board of directors accepted the resignation of Andrea Confini as Regular Director for Class D shares, citing strictly personal reasons. At the same meeting, the Supervisory Committee for Class D shares appointed Maxi...
YPF Approves Internal Merger to Absorb Venture and Pipeline Subsidiaries
Mar 13, 2026
At a board meeting held on March 13, 2026, YPF Sociedad Anónima approved a merger by absorption of its wholly owned subsidiaries YPF Ventures S.A.U. and Oleoducto Loma Campana Lago Pellegrini S.A.U., with retroactive effect from January 1, 20...
YPF Repurchases $35.5 Million in Class XXX Notes Ahead of July 2026 Maturity
Mar 10, 2026
Between March 3 and March 9, 2026, YPF repurchased Class XXX notes for 49.8 billion Argentine pesos, equivalent to a par value of $35.5 million, and will keep these securities in its portfolio. The peso‑denominated buyback, executed at an av...
YPF Files 2025 Consolidated Financials in Form 6-K Submission
Mar 6, 2026
On March 2026, YPF Sociedad Anónima filed its Form 6-K with U.S. regulators, providing consolidated financial statements for the fiscal years ended December 31, 2025, 2024 and 2023 in both U.S. dollars and Argentine pesos. The extensive filin...
YPF Board Clears 2025 Results and Proposes Major Reserve Reallocation
Feb 27, 2026
On February 26, 2026, YPF’s board approved the company’s consolidated financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2025, reporting a net loss of Ps. 1,048,272 million but total comprehensive income of Ps. 3,794,721 million unde...
YPF Posts Higher EBITDA but Swings to Loss on Softer 2025 Output and Prices
Feb 27, 2026
YPF reported its full-year 2025 and fourth-quarter 2025 results to the Argentine securities regulator on February 26, 2026, showing slightly lower annual revenues but higher adjusted EBITDA and a return to net losses after a profitable 2024. The c...
YPF Confirms Permanent Chief Audit Officer Appointment in February 2026
Feb 27, 2026
On February 26, 2026, YPF informed Argentine market authorities of a change in its first-level organizational structure, confirming the appointment of Ariel Polotnianka as Chief Audit Officer on a permanent basis. The decision, which follows an ea...
YPF Replaces Failed Manantiales Behr Sale With New US$410 Million Deal in Chubut
Feb 19, 2026
On February 18, 2026, YPF reported that its January 16, 2026 agreement to assign 100% of the conventional exploitation concession over the Manantiales Behr area in Chubut to Limay Energía became null and void on February 13, 2026 because the ...
YPF Brings Eni and XRG on Board Argentina LNG as Shell Pact Ends
Feb 12, 2026
On February 12, 2026, YPF announced it has signed a binding Joint Development Agreement with Eni and XRG to advance the Argentina LNG project, an integrated gas and liquefaction venture centered on unlocking the Vaca Muerta shale basin. The same d...
YPF to Redeem US$177.7 Million Class XXIX Notes Early on February 27, 2026
Feb 12, 2026
On February 11, 2026, YPF announced that it will carry out an early redemption of its Class XXIX notes, originally issued on May 28, 2024, with an initial nominal value of US$177.7 million and scheduled to mature on May 28, 2026. The notes, which ...
YPF Boosts Vaca Muerta Stakes with US$163 Million Vista Energy Deal
Feb 2, 2026
On February 1, 2026, YPF entered into agreements with Vista Energy to expand its interests in key unconventional hydrocarbon blocks in Argentina’s Vaca Muerta formation. The company agreed to acquire 16.3% of Equinor Argentina S.A.U., giving...
YPF Announces State-Backed Board Reshuffle on January 30, 2026
Jan 30, 2026
At a board meeting held on January 30, 2026, YPF’s Board of Directors took note of the Argentine National State, through the Secretariat of Energy in the Ministry of Economy, appointing Manuel Adorni as a Class A director representing the st...
YPF Appoints New Class D Director Following December Resignation
Jan 23, 2026
On January 22, 2026, YPF Sociedad Anónima reported a change in its board of directors following the previously disclosed December 11, 2025 resignation of Class D regular director Marilina Jaramillo. At a meeting held the same day, the Class D...
YPF Moves to Full Control of Three Neuquén Blocks Through Asset Swap With Pluspetrol
Jan 23, 2026
On January 22, 2026, YPF Sociedad Anónima signed an agreement with Pluspetrol S.A. to exchange 44.44% of the shares of Vaca Muerta Inversiones S.A.U. held by YPF for Pluspetrol’s 50% stakes in the Las Tacanas, Meseta Buena Esperanza and...
YPF Sells Manantiales Behr Conventional Assets in US$575 Million Portfolio Shift
Jan 16, 2026
On January 16, 2026, YPF signed two agreements with Limay Energía S.A., a Rovella Capital Group company, to transfer 100% of its conventional exploitation concession in the Manantiales Behr area and associated hydrocarbon transport concession...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.