National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $7.61B
• Dividend Yield: 2.55%
• Average Volume (3M): 485.59K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 191.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.34
• Revenue Growth: 7.14%
• EPS Growth: -90.91%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,311
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 54
• Industry: Oil & Gas Integrated
• EPS (TTM): 2.39
• Shares Outstanding: 90,351,974
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 661,577
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 485,589
• PEG Ratio: 0.18
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.71
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 8.10K
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.99
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.95
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.41
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 2.53
• 1Y Price Target: $88.25
• Price Target Upside: 4.80% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: ―

National Fuel Gas Company demonstrates strong operational performance with stable cash flow, bolstered by recent earnings growth and positive technical indicators. However, high leverage and a negative P/E ratio pose significant risks. The upward revision in earnings guidance and strong demand outlook are strong positives, but regulatory challenges and valuation concerns weigh on the overall score.

Positive Factors

Earnings

The company's adjusted earnings per share exceeded expectations due to lower operating and maintenance costs and higher non-service pension and post-retirement benefits.

Guidance

National Fuel Gas updated its earnings guidance for 2025 higher, driven by increased production and reduced expenses.

Hedging Strategy

National Fuel Gas has effectively managed its hedging strategy, increasing its hedged volume for 2025 and 2026 to provide more stability.

Negative Factors

Natural Gas Prices

Given the company’s relatively lower leverage to natural gas prices, it is seen as a disadvantage when compared to similar natural gas companies.

Revenue Impact

New rates approved by FERC are expected to result in a modest decline in revenue, reducing it by $500,000 annually.

Stock Buyback

The buyback pace has slowed as the company seeks more flexibility amidst current macroeconomic uncertainties.

National Fuel Gas Company Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

National Fuel Gas Company operates as a diversified energy company. It operates through four segments: Exploration and Production, Pipeline and Storage, Gathering, and Utility. The Exploration and Production segment explores for, develops, and produces natural gas and oil in California and in the Appalachian region of the United States. As of September 30, 2021, it had proved developed and undeveloped reserves of 21,537 thousand barrels of oil and 3,723,433 million cubic feet of natural gas. The Pipeline and Storage segment provides interstate natural gas transportation and storage services through an integrated gas pipeline system in Pennsylvania and New York; and owns and operates underground natural gas storage fields. This segment also transports natural gas for National Fuel Gas Distribution Corporation, as well as for other utilities, industrial companies, and power producers in New York State; and owns and operates the Empire Pipeline. The Gathering segment builds, owns, and operates natural gas processing and pipeline gathering facilities in the Appalachian region, as well as provides gathering services to Seneca Resources Company, LLC. The Utility segment sells natural gas or provides natural gas transportation services to approximately 753,000 customers in Buffalo, Niagara Falls, and Jamestown, New York; and Erie and Sharon, Pennsylvania. The company markets gas to industrial, wholesale, commercial, public authority, and residential customers primarily in western and central New York, and northwestern Pennsylvania. As of September 30, 2021, the company also owned approximately 95,000 acres of timber property; and managed approximately 2,500 additional acres of timber cutting rights. National Fuel Gas Company was incorporated in 1902 and is headquartered in Williamsville, New York.

How the Company Makes Money

National Fuel Gas Company generates revenue through its diversified operations across multiple segments. The Exploration and Production segment focuses on the extraction of natural gas and oil, selling these resources to the market. The Pipeline and Storage segment earns income by transporting and storing natural gas through its extensive network of pipelines and storage facilities, charging fees for these services. The Utility segment provides natural gas distribution services to residential, commercial, and industrial customers, collecting revenue through regulated rates. Additionally, the Energy Marketing segment involves the sale of natural gas to wholesale, commercial, and industrial customers, generating revenue through purchasing agreements and market sales. Strategic partnerships and regulatory frameworks in its operational regions further support NFG's revenue streams.

National Fuel Gas Company Financial Statement Overview

Summary

National Fuel Gas Company shows operational strength with stable margins and effective cash flow management, though it faces challenges with revenue consistency and high leverage. The TTM period highlights concerns about profitability and equity dependence, suggesting the need for careful strategic planning to enhance financial stability and growth.

Income Statement

The company demonstrated strong gross profit margins, though net income has been volatile. The recent TTM data shows negative net income, indicating potential challenges. Revenue growth has been inconsistent, with a noticeable decline in the latest TTM period compared to prior years. EBIT and EBITDA margins are stable, suggesting operational efficiency despite revenue fluctuations.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a high debt-to-equity ratio, indicating significant leverage which poses a risk in volatile markets. The equity ratio has decreased, showing reduced equity financing. However, historical ROE has been strong, reflecting effective use of equity. The latest TTM balance sheet shows a very low stockholders' equity, raising concerns about financial stability.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals strong operating cash flow relative to net income, highlighting good cash generation capabilities. Free cash flow has been positive yet fluctuating, with recent growth in free cash flow suggesting improved capital management. The free cash flow to net income ratio indicates efficient conversion of income into cash.

Breakdown	TTM	Sep 2024	Sep 2023	Sep 2022	Sep 2021	Sep 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.07B	1.94B	2.17B	2.19B	1.74B	1.55B
Gross Profit	1.02B	817.70M	847.85M	902.96M	759.72M	567.70M
EBITDA	737.13M	691.71M	1.18B	1.19B	970.13M	325.73M
Net Income	39.56M	77.51M	476.87M	566.02M	363.65M	-123.77M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	8.48B	8.32B	8.28B	7.90B	7.46B	6.96B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	39.95M	38.22M	55.45M	46.05M	31.53M	20.54M
Total Debt	0.00	2.78B	2.67B	2.69B	2.79B	2.66B
Total Liabilities	5.71B	5.47B	5.32B	5.82B	5.68B	4.99B
Stockholders Equity	2.77B	2.85B	2.96B	2.08B	1.79B	1.97B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	70.03M	134.72M	227.21M	695.00K	39.82M	-481.60M
Operating Cash Flow	953.57M	1.07B	1.24B	812.52M	791.55M	740.81M
Investing Cash Flow	-876.14M	-933.90M	-1.11B	-518.70M	-633.22M	-1.22B
Financing Cash Flow	-36.90M	-149.28M	-207.00M	-276.24M	-58.74M	476.09M

National Fuel Gas Company Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 84.21
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NFG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 84.21 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 83.54, above the 50-day MA of 81.62, and above the 200-day MA of 69.86, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.82 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 56.82 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 34.05 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NFG.

National Fuel Gas Company Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
EC	83 Outperform	$18.71B	5.56	18.64%	67.31%	-2.26%	-20.04%
E	73 Outperform	$50.13B	18.38	4.78%	3.38%	-2.17%	-25.00%
EQNR	73 Outperform	$70.21B	8.16	18.28%	5.71%	3.96%	-1.69%
TGS	72 Outperform	$3.99B	9.95	20.40%	3.49%	37.43%	395.49%
YPF	72 Outperform	$12.69B	7.49	15.54%	―	8.58%	―
NFG	70 Outperform	$7.61B	191.82	1.30%	2.55%	7.14%	-90.91%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$15.14B	9.95	6.38%	5.21%	4.16%	-67.19%

National Fuel Gas Company Corporate Events

National Fuel Gas Signs Consulting Agreement with DeCarolis

On June 13, 2025, National Fuel Gas Company entered into a Consulting Services Agreement with Donna L. DeCarolis, who will retire on July 1, 2025, and continue as a consultant until July 1, 2028. The agreement ensures her involvement in New York State energy policy matters and provides her a consulting fee of $15,000 per month, while Michael D. Colpoys will succeed her as President of National Fuel Gas Distribution Corporation.

The most recent analyst rating on (NFG) stock is a Buy with a $80.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on National Fuel Gas Company stock, see the NFG Stock Forecast page.

National Fuel Gas Updates Investor Presentation

On April 30, 2025, National Fuel Gas Company updated its Investor Presentation to include non-GAAP financial measures, which are intended to provide investors with alternative insights into the company’s operational performance and financial health. The release also highlighted numerous factors that could impact future results, such as regulatory changes, economic conditions, and market pressures, emphasizing the inherent uncertainties in the energy sector.