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National Fuel Gas Company
(NYSE:NFG)
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Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$92.00
▲(11.53% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/04/26
The score is driven primarily by solid (but somewhat variable) financial performance—strong margins and operating cash flow offset by the sharp TTM revenue drop, leverage considerations, and modest/uneven free cash flow. Technicals add support with positive momentum signals, while valuation is favorable with a low P/E and a solid dividend yield. The earnings call modestly improves the outlook due to raised multi-year growth/FCF targets, though near-term operational and financing headwinds keep the score from moving higher.
Positive Factors
Diversified integrated model
NFG's mix of commodity-linked upstream, fee-based midstream and regulated utility businesses smooths cash flow cycles. Regulated returns and long-term contracts provide durable revenue; midstream fees and upstream hedging complement each other for multi-year stability and capital allocation flexibility.
Negative Factors
Acquisition-driven leverage and dilution
Financing the Ohio acquisition materially increases interest expense and share count, pressuring credit metrics near term. Management plans to deleverage to low‑2s, but elevated leverage and higher interest costs reduce financial flexibility and slow the pace of cash returns or reinvestment until deleveraging occurs.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Diversified integrated model
NFG's mix of commodity-linked upstream, fee-based midstream and regulated utility businesses smooths cash flow cycles. Regulated returns and long-term contracts provide durable revenue; midstream fees and upstream hedging complement each other for multi-year stability and capital allocation flexibility.
Read all positive factors
National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$7.82B
Dividend Yield2.62%
Average Volume (3M)653.50K
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.4
Beta (1Y)0.06
Revenue Growth12.53%
EPS Growth167.56%
CountryUS
Employees2,322
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Integrated
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)7.25
Shares Outstanding95,045,100
10 Day Avg. Volume646,556
30 Day Avg. Volume653,505
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.03
Price to Book (P/B)2.70
Price to Sales (P/S)3.67
P/FCF Ratio44.65
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$98.67Price Target Upside19.61% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)7.39
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.58B
National Fuel Gas Company Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) operates as a multifaceted energy enterprise, with its business structured across four primary divisions: Exploration and Production, Pipeline and Storage, Gathering, and Utility. The Exploration and Production (E&P...
How the Company Makes Money
NFG makes money through a combination of commodity-linked upstream sales, fee-based midstream services, and regulated utility/pipeline revenue. (1) Exploration & Production: NFG generates revenue by producing natural gas (and, where applicable, na...
National Fuel Gas Company Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 29, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a predominantly constructive long‑term outlook supported by a clear growth plan: management raised multi‑year EPS growth targets (7%–10% through fiscal 2029), disclosed significant free cash flow generation ($1.0B–$1.5B), advanced the Line N expansion with long‑term contracts, made substantial progress on the Ohio utility acquisition and highlighted operational milestones (record long laterals, planned wells coming online). Near‑term challenges include lower-than-expected production this quarter tied to completion interactions and some underperforming wells, higher operating costs from inflation and regulatory timing effects, and increased leverage and interest expense tied to acquisition financing. Overall, the positives (strong long‑term guidance, hedging, contracted capacity, asset quality and planned production ramp) outweigh the near‑term operational and financing headwinds, which management is addressing through optimization, rate proceedings and a deleveraging focus.Positive Updates
Quarterly Adjusted EPS
Reported adjusted EPS of $1.54 for the quarter, in line with expectations (down $0.10 YoY, ~-6% vs prior-year quarter).
Negative Updates
Lower Production Impacting Quarterly Results
Adjusted EPS decline of $0.10 YoY was driven by lower production in the Integrated Upstream & Gathering segment, which more than offset stronger price realizations and hedge gains.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Quarterly Adjusted EPS
Reported adjusted EPS of $1.54 for the quarter, in line with expectations (down $0.10 YoY, ~-6% vs prior-year quarter).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company updated near‑ and long‑term guidance: fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS was revised to $7.40–$7.60 (quarterly adjusted EPS $1.54), with Seneca production now expected at 420–430 Bcfe and a NYMEX assumption of $3/MMBtu (price certainty on ~75% of production at prices above the strip); management now targets 7%–10% EPS CAGR through fiscal 2029 while generating $1.0–$1.5 billion of free cash flow over that period. Operational and capital metrics include quarter production/throughput of 104 Bcf/117 Bcf, 14 wells expected online in Q4 to drive a record exit rate, modestly higher FY26 capex at the midpoint (driven by diesel/oil and schedule), maintenance land spend ~ $15M/year with $100M–$200M of discretionary leasing over several years, per‑unit DD&A normalizing to the low‑to‑mid $0.80s, and modestly higher cash unit costs from inflation. Regulatory, commercial and financing drivers noted were Line N expanded by 200,000 dekatherms/day to add 294,000 dekatherms/day (with >400,000 dekatherms/day contracted to Shippingport, including 20‑year contracts), nearly $30M of incremental expansion revenue from Tioga Pathway/Shippingport laterals, a targeted Oct 1 close of the Ohio utility acquisition (calendar Q4) financed with $1.5B of long‑term debt (three tranches, weighted avg rate ≈5%), issuance of 4.4M shares and a $1.2B promissory note at 6.5%, and a goal to return leverage to the low‑2s (2.0–2.25) while continuing dividend growth (56th consecutive increase; 124‑year paying streak).National Fuel Gas Company Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
67
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.50B | 2.28B | 1.94B | 2.17B | 2.19B | 1.74B |
| Gross Profit | 1.23B | 1.51B | 817.70M | 847.85M | 902.96M | 759.72M |
| EBITDA | 1.52B | 1.31B | 682.98M | 1.18B | 1.18B | 959.99M |
| Net Income | 675.28M | 518.50M | 77.51M | 476.87M | 566.02M | 363.65M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 10.45B | 8.72B | 8.32B | 8.28B | 7.90B | 7.46B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.24B | 43.17M | 38.22M | 55.45M | 46.05M | 31.53M |
| Total Debt | 3.57B | 2.83B | 2.78B | 2.67B | 2.69B | 2.79B |
| Total Liabilities | 6.53B | 5.62B | 5.47B | 5.32B | 5.82B | 5.68B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.92B | 3.09B | 2.85B | 2.96B | 2.08B | 1.79B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 222.27M | 187.21M | 134.72M | 227.21M | 695.00K | 39.82M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.27B | 1.10B | 1.07B | 1.24B | 812.52M | 791.55M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.03B | -891.70M | -933.90M | -1.11B | -518.70M | -633.22M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 951.52M | -203.38M | -149.28M | -207.00M | -276.24M | -58.74M |
National Fuel Gas Company Technical Analysis
Negative
82.49
Price Trends
78.66
Positive
83.20
Negative
82.56
Negative
Market Momentum
0.62
Positive
43.41
Neutral
44.33
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NFG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 82.49 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 81.10, above the 50-day MA of 78.66, and below the 200-day MA of 82.56, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.62 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.41 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 44.33 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NFG.
National Fuel Gas Company Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $7.82B | 11.35 | 18.72% | 2.62% | 12.53% | 167.56% | |
71 Outperform | $5.09B | 16.52 | 15.23% | ― | 5.29% | -16.97% | |
70 Outperform | $35.09B | 12.47 | 10.79% | 4.06% | -6.14% | -33.61% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
64 Neutral | $21.94B | -57.53 | -3.62% | ― | -4.17% | -119.47% |
* Energy Sector Average
NFG
National Fuel Gas Company
78.90
-5.93
-6.99%
EC
Ecopetrol SA
16.39
8.23
100.76%
TGS
Transportadora De Gas Sa Ord B
29.56
-0.15
-0.50%
YPF
YPF Sociedad Anonima
48.67
12.47
34.45%
National Fuel Gas Company Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
National Fuel Gas Updates Investor Presentation and Outlook
Neutral
Jul 29, 2026
On July 29, 2026, National Fuel Gas Company updated its investor presentation, highlighting the use of non-GAAP financial measures alongside GAAP metrics to better assess ongoing operations, cash flow and liquidity, and to enable comparability wit...
M&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Ohio Regulators Approve National Fuel’s Vectren Acquisition Conditions
Positive
Jun 26, 2026
National Fuel Gas Company agreed on October 20, 2025, to acquire all issued and outstanding equity interests of Vectren Energy Delivery of Ohio, LLC from CenterPoint Energy Resources Corp. for approximately $2.62 billion, subject to customary adju...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
National Fuel Gas Announces Major Senior Notes Offering
Positive
Jun 10, 2026
On May 27, 2026, National Fuel Gas Company entered into an underwriting agreement with a syndicate of major investment banks to facilitate the public offering of three tranches of senior notes totaling $1.5 billion. The company subsequently execut...
Business Operations and Strategy
National Fuel Gas Announces Early Redemption of 2026 Notes
Positive
May 27, 2026
On May 27, 2026, National Fuel Gas Company elected to exercise its optional redemption rights to redeem the entire outstanding $300 million aggregate principal amount of its 5.50% Notes due October 2026, and the trustee issued a conditional redemp...
Financial DisclosuresM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
National Fuel Details Financials for Planned Ohio Utility Acquisition
Neutral
May 26, 2026
On May 26, 2026, National Fuel Gas Company filed a current report providing audited and unaudited financial statements for Vectren Energy Delivery of Ohio, LLC as of December 31, 2025 and March 31, 2026, along with an independent auditor’s o...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.