National Fuel Gas Company (NFG)
NYSE:NFG
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National Fuel Gas Company
(NYSE:NFG)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$104.00
▲(15.54% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/28/26
The score is driven primarily by solid current profitability and cash generation but constrained by historical volatility, mid-range free cash flow conversion, and moderate leverage. Technicals are supportive with price above major moving averages and positive MACD, while valuation is favorable on a low P/E and a modest dividend. The earnings call adds a positive tilt due to reaffirmed guidance and strong operating execution, partially offset by acquisition financing leverage and natural gas price risk.
Positive Factors
Diversified integrated business model
National Fuel’s mix of upstream production, fee-based gathering/processing, pipeline/storage and a regulated utility provides durable revenue diversification. The regulated and contracted midstream/utility earnings reduce commodity sensitivity, stabilizing cash flows and supporting long-term capital planning and dividends.
Negative Factors
Moderate leverage and planned debt raise
Existing debt roughly equals equity and planned $1.5B long-term issuance to fund an acquisition will raise leverage near cycle-sensitive targets. Higher net debt/EBITDA reduces financial flexibility, increases interest burden and covenant sensitivity during commodity or cash-flow stress periods.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Diversified integrated business model
National Fuel’s mix of upstream production, fee-based gathering/processing, pipeline/storage and a regulated utility provides durable revenue diversification. The regulated and contracted midstream/utility earnings reduce commodity sensitivity, stabilizing cash flows and supporting long-term capital planning and dividends.
Read all positive factors
National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$8.67B
Dividend Yield2.57%
Average Volume (3M)760.50K
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.0
Beta (1Y)0.19
Revenue Growth28.56%
EPS Growth593.72%
CountryUS
Employees2,311
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Integrated
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.06
Shares Outstanding95,026,420
10 Day Avg. Volume591,372
30 Day Avg. Volume760,503
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.03
Price to Book (P/B)2.70
Price to Sales (P/S)3.67
P/FCF Ratio44.65
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.27
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.64
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit9.02
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.29
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$101.75Price Target Upside13.04% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)7.81
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.60B
National Fuel Gas Company Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
National Fuel Gas Company operates as a diversified energy company. It operates through four segments: Exploration and Production, Pipeline and Storage, Gathering, and Utility. The Exploration and Production segment explores for, develops, and pro...
How the Company Makes Money
NFG makes money through multiple, complementary natural gas-focused businesses. (1) Exploration & Production (upstream): The company earns revenue by producing natural gas and selling those volumes into wholesale natural gas markets; revenues are ...
National Fuel Gas Company Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 28, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted strong operational execution (production up 12%, adjusted EBITDA +29%), reaffirmed guidance, improved capital efficiency (~30% since 2023), progress on strategic pipeline projects, and well-advanced financing and regulatory work for the Ohio acquisition. The major risks discussed were significant short-term natural gas price volatility, some near-term acquisition-related costs and dilution, and modest regulatory/cash-flow impacts from Ohio’s final order. On balance, the positive operational and financial developments, the hedging posture, and the secured equity financing outweigh the highlighted headwinds.Positive Updates
First Quarter Earnings in Line with Expectations
Adjusted EPS of $2.06 for Q1, reported as right in line with company expectations and setting a solid foundation for the fiscal year.
Negative Updates
Severe Natural Gas Price Volatility
Extreme near-term price volatility: February NYMEX contract settled near $7.50 (a ~140% increase from two weeks prior), yet company maintains a $3.75 assumption for the remainder of the fiscal year due to uncertainty—natural gas prices remain the largest variable for outlook.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
First Quarter Earnings in Line with Expectations
Adjusted EPS of $2.06 for Q1, reported as right in line with company expectations and setting a solid foundation for the fiscal year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reaffirmed fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $7.60–$8.10 (midpoint $7.85) after reporting Q1 adjusted EPS of $2.06, and expects fiscal‑26 EPS to grow ~14% year‑over‑year; production guidance was reaffirmed at 440–455 Bcf (Q1 production 109 Bcf, +12% YoY) with capital spending of $560–$610 million (capex steady through the year), and a $3.75/Mcf price assumption for the remainder of the year. Their hedge book protects ~70% of remaining production, including ~80 Bcf of 2026 collars with a weighted floor of ~$3.60 and cap of ~$4.75, leaving upside exposure on >50% of remaining volumes; they also added swap layers in FY27–28 between ~$4.00–$4.25 and collars with high‑$3 floors and caps north of $5. On the balance sheet and financing front, NFG completed a $350 million private equity placement, expects to issue ~ $1.5 billion of long‑term debt for acquisition/refinancing, aims to exit FY26 near 1.75x net debt/EBITDA and to reach the low end of a 2.5–3.0x post‑close target within a year; regulatory items include an Ohio rate case seeking ~ $20 million of rate relief (≈11% bill increase) and a modified ROE of 9.79% (≈$0.5M/yr EPS impact) with amortizations extended from 15 to 25 years.National Fuel Gas Company Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
56
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.37B | 2.28B | 1.94B | 2.17B | 2.19B | 1.74B |
| Gross Profit | 1.22B | 1.51B | 817.70M | 847.85M | 902.96M | 759.72M |
| EBITDA | 1.51B | 1.31B | 682.98M | 1.18B | 1.18B | 959.99M |
| Net Income | 655.16M | 518.50M | 77.51M | 476.87M | 566.02M | 363.65M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 9.21B | 8.72B | 8.32B | 8.28B | 7.90B | 7.46B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 271.40M | 43.17M | 38.22M | 55.45M | 46.05M | 31.53M |
| Total Debt | 2.77B | 2.83B | 2.78B | 2.67B | 2.69B | 2.79B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.62B | 5.62B | 5.47B | 5.32B | 5.82B | 5.68B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.59B | 3.09B | 2.85B | 2.96B | 2.08B | 1.79B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 204.84M | 187.21M | 134.72M | 227.21M | 695.00K | 39.82M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.15B | 1.10B | 1.07B | 1.24B | 812.52M | 791.55M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -936.04M | -891.70M | -933.90M | -1.11B | -518.70M | -633.22M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 3.88M | -203.38M | -149.28M | -207.00M | -276.24M | -58.74M |
National Fuel Gas Company Technical Analysis
Neutral
90.01
Price Trends
90.49
Negative
85.55
Positive
84.97
Positive
Market Momentum
0.56
Positive
40.43
Neutral
16.65
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NFG, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 90.01 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 93.52, below the 50-day MA of 90.49, and above the 200-day MA of 84.97, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.56 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.43 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.65 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for NFG.
National Fuel Gas Company Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $8.67B | 10.05 | 21.09% | 2.57% | 28.56% | 593.72% | |
69 Neutral | $5.35B | 13.85 | 14.77% | 2.97% | 30.37% | 122.40% | |
67 Neutral | $28.86B | 12.89 | 11.20% | 18.88% | -7.45% | -28.80% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
57 Neutral | $18.33B | -17.16 | -2.22% | ― | -2.76% | 56.81% |
* Energy Sector Average
NFG
National Fuel Gas Company
90.01
13.17
17.15%
EC
Ecopetrol SA
13.51
5.15
61.54%
TGS
Transportadora De Gas Sa Ord B
31.59
5.59
21.48%
YPF
YPF Sociedad Anonima
42.11
9.62
29.61%
National Fuel Gas Company Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
National Fuel Gas Expands and Extends Revolving Credit Facility
Positive
Mar 27, 2026
On March 27, 2026, National Fuel Gas Company entered into an amended and restated $1.3 billion unsecured revolving credit facility with a syndicate of major banks, extending its maturity to March 27, 2031 and updating pricing based on its credit r...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
National Fuel Gas Shareholders Back Board, Pay and Auditor
Positive
Mar 13, 2026
National Fuel Gas Company held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders on March 12, 2026, where shareholders elected 11 directors, including David H. Anderson, David P. Bauer and others, to one-year terms with approval levels generally above 93% o...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
National Fuel Gas Updates Investor Presentation, Highlights Risks
Neutral
Jan 28, 2026
On January 28, 2026, National Fuel Gas Company updated its investor presentation, providing investors with refreshed financial and operational information and including certain non-GAAP financial measures that management and investors use to asses...
Private Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
National Fuel Gas Registers Shares for Secondary Resale
Neutral
Dec 29, 2025
On December 29, 2025, National Fuel Gas Company filed a prospectus supplement to an existing shelf registration to register for resale up to 4,402,513 shares of its $1.00 par value common stock held by certain selling stockholders. These shares we...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.