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National Fuel Gas Company (NFG)
NYSE:NFG
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National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) AI Stock Analysis

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NFG

National Fuel Gas Company

(NYSE:NFG)

Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$96.00
▲(10.61%Upside)
National Fuel Gas Company has a stable financial base with positive technical trends and strong earnings call highlights. However, valuation concerns and declining free cash flow growth present risks. The company's strong operational efficiency and project developments provide a positive outlook, but the high P/E ratio suggests caution.
Positive Factors
Earnings
The company's adjusted earnings per share exceeded expectations due to lower operating and maintenance costs and higher non-service pension and post-retirement benefits.
Financial Performance
National Fuel Gas updated its earnings guidance for 2025 higher, driven by increased production and reduced expenses.
Production Guidance
NFG raised its 2025 production guidance by approximately 2%, indicating stronger future output.
Negative Factors
Buyback Strategy
The buyback pace has slowed as the company seeks more flexibility amidst current macroeconomic uncertainties.
Market Comparison
Given the company’s relatively lower leverage to natural gas prices, it is seen as a disadvantage when compared to similar natural gas companies.
Revenue Impact
New rates approved by FERC are expected to result in a modest decline in revenue, reducing it by $500,000 annually.

National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

National Fuel Gas Company Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNational Fuel Gas Company (NFG) is a diversified energy company that operates within the natural gas sector. Engaged in a range of activities including exploration, production, gathering, transportation, and distribution of natural gas, NFG serves customers primarily in the regions of Western New York and Northwestern Pennsylvania. The company's operations are divided into several segments: Exploration and Production, Pipeline and Storage, Utility, and Energy Marketing, each contributing to its comprehensive service offerings and market presence.
How the Company Makes MoneyNational Fuel Gas Company generates revenue through its diversified operations across multiple segments. The Exploration and Production segment focuses on the extraction of natural gas and oil, selling these resources to the market. The Pipeline and Storage segment earns income by transporting and storing natural gas through its extensive network of pipelines and storage facilities, charging fees for these services. The Utility segment provides natural gas distribution services to residential, commercial, and industrial customers, collecting revenue through regulated rates. Additionally, the Energy Marketing segment involves the sale of natural gas to wholesale, commercial, and industrial customers, generating revenue through purchasing agreements and market sales. Strategic partnerships and regulatory frameworks in its operational regions further support NFG's revenue streams.

National Fuel Gas Company Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 31, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: 0.00%|
Next Earnings Date:Oct 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong production growth, operational efficiency, and strategic pipeline projects contributing to a positive financial outlook. However, the pause in the share buyback program and anticipated cost increases present some challenges.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Production Growth
Seneca's production for the quarter was up 16% from last year, with full-year production expected to increase by approximately 8% versus fiscal 2024.
Operational Efficiency Improvements
Seneca is achieving lower cash operating costs and improving capital efficiency with plans to reduce capital spending by 4% while increasing production by 6% in fiscal 2026.
Significant Pipeline Projects
The Shippingport Lateral Project and Tioga Pathway project are expected to generate over $30 million of new revenue annually, representing about 7% of current pipeline and storage segment revenues.
Dividend Increase
National Fuel raised its dividend for the 55th consecutive year to an annual rate of $2.14 per share.
Strong Financial Outlook
Earnings per share are expected to grow by 20% in fiscal 2026, with a strong hedge book protecting against downside risks.
Negative Updates
Paused Share Buyback Program
The buyback program was paused as the company evaluates opportunities to grow, impacting immediate shareholder returns.
Potential Cost Increases
Utility O&M costs are expected to increase by approximately 5% due to factors like accelerated write-offs and collective bargaining agreements.
Company Guidance
During the National Fuel Gas Company's Q3 Fiscal 2025 earnings call, several key metrics and guidance were highlighted. Production at Seneca Resources increased by 16% year-over-year, with full-year production expected to rise by approximately 8% compared to fiscal 2024. The company anticipates fiscal 2026 production to reach 440 to 455 Bcf, a projected 6% increase at the midpoint, while reducing capital expenditure by 4%. The Shippingport Lateral Project and Tioga Pathway project are expected to generate over $30 million in new revenue annually, representing about 7% of current pipeline and storage segment revenues. The company also reported a 66% increase in adjusted operating results from the previous year, with narrowed earnings guidance for fiscal 2025 set at $6.80 to $6.95 per share. For fiscal 2026, earnings per share are estimated in the range of $8 to $8.50 using a $4 NYMEX gas price, reflecting a 20% increase from 2025. Additionally, the company raised its dividend for the 55th consecutive year to an annual rate of $2.14 per share.

National Fuel Gas Company Financial Statement Overview

Summary
National Fuel Gas Company shows operational strength with stable margins and effective cash flow management, though it faces challenges with revenue consistency and high leverage. The TTM period highlights concerns about profitability and equity dependence, suggesting the need for careful strategic planning to enhance financial stability and growth.
Income Statement
68
Positive
The company demonstrated strong gross profit margins, though net income has been volatile. The recent TTM data shows negative net income, indicating potential challenges. Revenue growth has been inconsistent, with a noticeable decline in the latest TTM period compared to prior years. EBIT and EBITDA margins are stable, suggesting operational efficiency despite revenue fluctuations.
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
The balance sheet shows a high debt-to-equity ratio, indicating significant leverage which poses a risk in volatile markets. The equity ratio has decreased, showing reduced equity financing. However, historical ROE has been strong, reflecting effective use of equity. The latest TTM balance sheet shows a very low stockholders' equity, raising concerns about financial stability.
Cash Flow
72
Positive
Cash flow analysis reveals strong operating cash flow relative to net income, highlighting good cash generation capabilities. Free cash flow has been positive yet fluctuating, with recent growth in free cash flow suggesting improved capital management. The free cash flow to net income ratio indicates efficient conversion of income into cash.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.65B1.94B2.17B2.19B1.74B1.55B
Gross Profit847.87M817.70M847.85M902.96M759.72M567.70M
EBITDA954.90M691.71M1.18B1.19B970.13M325.73M
Net Income243.54M77.51M476.87M566.02M363.65M-123.77M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets8.45B8.32B8.28B7.90B7.46B6.96B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments39.32M38.22M55.45M46.05M31.53M20.54M
Total Debt0.002.78B2.67B2.69B2.79B2.66B
Total Liabilities5.47B5.47B5.32B5.82B5.68B4.99B
Stockholders Equity2.98B2.85B2.96B2.08B1.79B1.97B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow185.87M134.72M227.21M695.00K39.82M-481.60M
Operating Cash Flow1.06B1.07B1.24B812.52M791.55M740.81M
Investing Cash Flow-866.30M-933.90M-1.11B-518.70M-633.22M-1.22B
Financing Cash Flow-236.02M-149.28M-207.00M-276.24M-58.74M476.09M

National Fuel Gas Company Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price86.79
Price Trends
50DMA
84.17
Positive
100DMA
80.86
Positive
200DMA
72.47
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
1.05
Positive
RSI
53.94
Neutral
STOCH
54.05
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NFG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 86.79 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 86.18, above the 50-day MA of 84.17, and above the 200-day MA of 72.47, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.05 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 53.94 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 54.05 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NFG.

National Fuel Gas Company Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (67)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
$4.42B11.2520.40%3.23%37.43%395.49%
77
Outperform
$51.50B19.394.83%6.97%-6.31%-33.87%
73
Outperform
$66.67B8.9419.22%9.59%1.19%-7.87%
72
Outperform
$17.74B5.3218.64%21.31%-2.26%-20.04%
72
Outperform
$13.42B7.8715.54%8.58%
71
Outperform
$7.94B200.078.00%2.40%19.59%-21.86%
67
Neutral
$15.32B10.216.62%5.48%4.82%-57.74%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
NFG
National Fuel Gas Company
86.79
29.58
51.70%
EC
Ecopetrol SA
8.40
-0.60
-6.67%
E
Eni SPA
34.04
4.54
15.39%
EQNR
Equinor ASA
25.75
1.75
7.29%
TGS
Transportadora De Gas Sa Ord B
28.70
13.19
85.04%
YPF
YPF Sociedad Anonima
33.54
15.40
84.90%

National Fuel Gas Company Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
National Fuel Gas Updates Investor Presentation
Neutral
Jul 30, 2025

On July 30, 2025, National Fuel Gas Company updated its Investor Presentation, highlighting the use of non-GAAP financial measures to provide investors with an alternative method for assessing the company’s performance. The release also discussed various factors that could impact future results, such as regulatory changes, economic conditions, and operational challenges, emphasizing the uncertainty in achieving projected outcomes.

The most recent analyst rating on (NFG) stock is a Buy with a $80.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on National Fuel Gas Company stock, see the NFG Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
National Fuel Gas Signs Consulting Agreement with DeCarolis
Neutral
Jun 18, 2025

On June 13, 2025, National Fuel Gas Company entered into a Consulting Services Agreement with Donna L. DeCarolis, who will retire on July 1, 2025, and continue as a consultant until July 1, 2028. The agreement ensures her involvement in New York State energy policy matters and provides her a consulting fee of $15,000 per month, while Michael D. Colpoys will succeed her as President of National Fuel Gas Distribution Corporation.

The most recent analyst rating on (NFG) stock is a Buy with a $80.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on National Fuel Gas Company stock, see the NFG Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 01, 2025