National Fuel Gas Company (NFG)
NYSE:NFG
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National Fuel Gas Company
(NYSE:NFG)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$96.00
▲(9.70% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/30/26
The score is driven primarily by solid underlying profitability and cash generation, supported by an attractive valuation (low P/E and a moderate dividend). Offsetting these positives are weaker near-term technical momentum and elevated variability/risk factors highlighted by the sharp TTM revenue decline and guidance headwinds (lower price assumptions, modest production cut, and higher capex/financing execution risk).
Positive Factors
Diversified integrated business model
National Fuel's blend of upstream production, fee-based gathering/processing, pipeline/storage transport, and regulated local distribution creates stable revenue mix. This structural diversification cushions commodity swings and supports predictable cash flows over months to years.
Negative Factors
Steep recent revenue decline
A nearly 60% TTM revenue drop signals material volatility and questions durability of recent margins. Revenue base swings can quickly erode cash generation and make multi-month forecasting and investment planning more uncertain despite strong trailing margins.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Diversified integrated business model
National Fuel's blend of upstream production, fee-based gathering/processing, pipeline/storage transport, and regulated local distribution creates stable revenue mix. This structural diversification cushions commodity swings and supports predictable cash flows over months to years.
Read all positive factors
National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$7.56B
Dividend Yield2.57%
Average Volume (3M)750.61K
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.0
Beta (1Y)0.09
Revenue Growth26.21%
EPS Growth1517.69%
CountryUS
Employees2,311
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Integrated
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)7.45
Shares Outstanding95,035,360
10 Day Avg. Volume638,936
30 Day Avg. Volume750,606
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.03
Price to Book (P/B)2.70
Price to Sales (P/S)3.67
P/FCF Ratio44.65
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.32
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.99
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.97
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.50
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$101.67Price Target Upside16.18% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)7.69
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.62B
National Fuel Gas Company Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
National Fuel Gas Company operates as a diversified energy company. It operates through four segments: Exploration and Production, Pipeline and Storage, Gathering, and Utility. The Exploration and Production segment explores for, develops, and pro...
How the Company Makes Money
NFG makes money through multiple, complementary natural gas-focused businesses. (1) Exploration & Production (upstream): The company earns revenue by producing natural gas and selling those volumes into wholesale natural gas markets; revenues are ...
National Fuel Gas Company Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a broadly positive operational and financial picture highlighted by double-digit EPS growth (Q2 EPS +13%), record segment EBITDA (> $300M), strong free cash flow (~$160M), successful pipeline expansions and long-term contracted capacity, promising Gen 4 well results, solid balance sheet metrics and proactive hedging. Offsetting items included a softer near-term macro (NYMEX lowered to $3.00), a modest 3% production guidance cut (midpoint) largely from weather and a handful of underperforming older-design wells, a one-time gathering O&M write-down, and emerging cost pressures that push capital toward the high end of guidance and necessitate sizable acquisition-related financing. Overall, highlights materially outweigh the lowlights, supporting a constructive outlook while noting near-term execution and pricing risks.Positive Updates
Adjusted EPS Growth and Record Quarter
Adjusted EPS of $2.71 in Q2, up 13% year-over-year; record second-quarter EPS and continuation of double-digit EPS growth supporting the multiyear >10% average annual growth target.
Negative Updates
Lowered NYMEX Price Assumption
Updated NYMEX assumption to $3.00/MMBtu from $3.75/MMBtu, and projected basis of $0.80 below NYMEX, reflecting a softer near-term price outlook and prompting guidance recalibration.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Adjusted EPS Growth and Record Quarter
Adjusted EPS of $2.71 in Q2, up 13% year-over-year; record second-quarter EPS and continuation of double-digit EPS growth supporting the multiyear >10% average annual growth target.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company updated fiscal 2026 guidance assuming NYMEX at $3.00/MMBtu (down from $3.75) with a basis of $0.80 below NYMEX, and now projects adjusted EPS of $7.45–$7.75 per share (midpoint ~10% above prior year); it is roughly 75% hedged for the rest of the year (mostly swaps and fixed-price sales) with spot exposure of about 30 Bcf, and full‑year production guidance of 425–440 Bcfe (about a 3% reduction from prior guidance). Management reported roughly $160 million of free cash flow in Q2 and expects continued significant FCF for the year, capital spending unchanged but trending to the high end (Integrated Upstream & Gathering capex $560–$610 million), gathering O&M now expected at $0.12/Mcf (+$0.01) with upstream LOE $0.01 lower, and balance‑sheet targets of below 2.0x debt/EBITDA and approaching 50% FFO/debt; financing plans include raising up to $1.5 billion (about $1.0 billion at closing) and refinancing a $300 million October maturity. Operational and regulatory items embedded in the outlook include two pipeline projects (Shippingport Lateral and Tioga Pathway on track for Nov 2026), a new Line N upgrade adding 94,000 dekatherms/day at an estimated $93 million (in service late 2028), and a Supply Corp FERC rate filing seeking roughly $95 million of additional cost recovery.National Fuel Gas Company Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
76
Positive
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
68
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.50B | 2.28B | 1.94B | 2.17B | 2.19B | 1.74B |
| Gross Profit | 1.25B | 1.51B | 817.70M | 847.85M | 902.96M | 759.72M |
| EBITDA | 1.53B | 1.31B | 682.98M | 1.18B | 1.18B | 959.99M |
| Net Income | 686.47M | 518.50M | 77.51M | 476.87M | 566.02M | 363.65M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 9.13B | 8.72B | 8.32B | 8.28B | 7.90B | 7.46B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 26.60M | 43.17M | 38.22M | 55.45M | 46.05M | 31.53M |
| Total Debt | 2.43B | 2.83B | 2.78B | 2.67B | 2.69B | 2.79B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.30B | 5.62B | 5.47B | 5.32B | 5.82B | 5.68B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.82B | 3.09B | 2.85B | 2.96B | 2.08B | 1.79B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 306.61M | 187.21M | 134.72M | 227.21M | 695.00K | 39.82M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.28B | 1.10B | 1.07B | 1.24B | 812.52M | 791.55M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -964.07M | -891.70M | -933.90M | -1.11B | -518.70M | -633.22M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -384.08M | -203.38M | -149.28M | -207.00M | -276.24M | -58.74M |
National Fuel Gas Company Technical Analysis
Negative
87.51
Price Trends
90.83
Negative
85.82
Positive
85.06
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.45
Positive
33.58
Neutral
10.16
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NFG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 87.51 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 92.94, below the 50-day MA of 90.83, and above the 200-day MA of 85.06, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.45 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 33.58 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.16 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NFG.
National Fuel Gas Company Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $7.56B | 9.01 | 20.37% | 2.57% | 26.21% | 1517.69% | |
69 Neutral | $4.73B | 11.55 | 14.77% | 2.97% | 8.97% | -12.16% | |
67 Neutral | $25.90B | 12.89 | 11.20% | 18.88% | -7.38% | -39.57% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
57 Neutral | $17.67B | -5.41 | -2.22% | ― | -4.12% | -132.96% |
* Energy Sector Average
NFG
National Fuel Gas Company
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National Fuel Gas Company Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
National Fuel Gas Updates Investor Presentation, Highlights Key Risks
Neutral
Apr 29, 2026
On April 29, 2026, National Fuel Gas Company updated its investor presentation, emphasizing the use of both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures to assess ongoing operating performance, cash flow, liquidity and peer comparisons. Management also re...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
National Fuel Gas Expands and Extends Revolving Credit Facility
Positive
Mar 27, 2026
On March 27, 2026, National Fuel Gas Company entered into an amended and restated $1.3 billion unsecured revolving credit facility with a syndicate of major banks, extending its maturity to March 27, 2031 and updating pricing based on its credit r...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
National Fuel Gas Shareholders Back Board, Pay and Auditor
Positive
Mar 13, 2026
National Fuel Gas Company held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders on March 12, 2026, where shareholders elected 11 directors, including David H. Anderson, David P. Bauer and others, to one-year terms with approval levels generally above 93% o...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.