Ecopetrol (EC)
NYSE:EC
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Ecopetrol SA
(NYSE:EC)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$15.50
▲(14.39% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:03/07/26
The score is anchored by weakening financial momentum (declining revenues/margins, softer ROE, and weaker cash conversion) and moderate leverage, partially offset by constructive price momentum and attractive valuation (low P/E and high dividend yield). Earnings call guidance was disciplined but highlighted meaningful oil-price and regulatory/tax risks.
Positive Factors
Integrated business model
Ecopetrol’s upstream, midstream and downstream integration provides durable cash diversification across the commodity cycle. Vertical scale supports margin capture (refining spreads, transport tariffs), internal feedstock balance and capital efficiency, reducing single‑segment volatility over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Declining revenue & net margin
Three consecutive years of revenue declines and materially lower net margins weaken earnings durability and cash conversion. Lower top‑line and profit margins compress free cash flow, limit reinvestment capacity and increase sensitivity to further commodity or operating headwinds over coming quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Integrated business model
Ecopetrol’s upstream, midstream and downstream integration provides durable cash diversification across the commodity cycle. Vertical scale supports margin capture (refining spreads, transport tariffs), internal feedstock balance and capital efficiency, reducing single‑segment volatility over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Ecopetrol SA (EC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$28.27B
Dividend Yield18.88%
Average Volume (3M)3.50M
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.9
Beta (1Y)0.04
Revenue Growth-7.38%
EPS Growth-39.57%
CountryUS
Employees18,903
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Integrated
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.27
Shares Outstanding2,055,834,700
10 Day Avg. Volume2,868,331
30 Day Avg. Volume3,504,904
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.23
Price to Book (P/B)0.93
Price to Sales (P/S)0.70
P/FCF Ratio4.79
Enterprise Value/Market Cap7.11K
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.68
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.35
Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.21
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$12.25Price Target Upside-9.59% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)6,123.54
Revenue Forecast (FY)$10.00T>
Ecopetrol SA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ecopetrol S.A. operates as an integrated energy company. The company operates through four segments: Exploration and Production; Transport and Logistics; Refining, Petrochemical and Biofuels; and Electric Power Transmission and Toll Roads Concessi...
How the Company Makes Money
Ecopetrol makes money primarily by selling hydrocarbons and refined products through an integrated model spanning upstream, midstream, and downstream operations. Upstream revenue comes from producing crude oil and natural gas and selling those vol...
Ecopetrol SA Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
EBITDA by Segment
Highlights earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization for each business segment, providing insight into the profitability and operational efficiency of different areas within the company.
Highlights earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization for each business segment, providing insight into the profitability and operational efficiency of different areas within the company.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyEcopetrol SA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 04, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a broadly positive operational and financial performance: key targets were met or exceeded (production, transportation, refining throughput, reserves replacement, renewables capacity) and efficiency programs delivered significant savings and improved margins. At the same time, material headwinds — notably a ~15% drop in Brent, tax and regulatory disputes (DIAN VAT), external events and FX/tax pressures — weighed on net income and create notable financial and operational risks. Overall, management demonstrated resilience, retained strong liquidity and a disciplined capital plan while outlining continued investments in hydrocarbons and energy transition.Positive Updates
Strong EBITDA and Margin Resilience
EBITDA of COP 46.7 trillion with an EBITDA margin aligned with the annual target of 39%, supported by refining recovery, Transportation stability and efficiency programs.
Negative Updates
Lower Brent Prices Impact on Profitability
Brent average fell ~15% year-over-year (from $80 in 2024 to $68 in 2025), negatively impacting revenues and contributing materially to lower net income.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong EBITDA and Margin Resilience
EBITDA of COP 46.7 trillion with an EBITDA margin aligned with the annual target of 39%, supported by refining recovery, Transportation stability and efficiency programs.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Ecopetrol guided a disciplined 2026 plan with investments of $5.4–$6.7 billion (COP 22–27 trillion) based on Brent $60/bbl and FX COP 4,050/USD, targeting a 40% EBITDA margin, production of 730–740 kboe/d, refinery throughput of 410–420 kb/d, transport >1.1 million bpd, ~70% of capex to hydrocarbons, drilling 380–430 development wells and up to 10 exploratory wells, adding ~750 MW of renewables, capturing ~COP 5.7 trillion in efficiencies, delivering COP 28 trillion in transfers to the nation, and maintaining a net‑income breakeven near $46–47/bbl (with a $9–10/bbl tax component); the Board proposed a COP 110/share dividend (50% of net income) while aiming to keep gross debt/EBITDA around 2.3x (1.6x ex‑ISA) and avoid incremental debt for organic capex.Ecopetrol SA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 10.00T> | 10.00T> | 10.00T> | 10.00T> | 91.88T |
| Gross Profit | 35.05T | 46.85T | 55.01T | 70.15T | 36.30T |
| EBITDA | 39.29T | 55.75T | 59.83T | 73.81T | 40.72T |
| Net Income | 8.40T | 13.84T | 21.06T | 31.60T | 15.65T |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 10.00T> | 10.00T> | 10.00T> | 10.00T> | 10.00T> |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 12.52T | 14.91T | 14.20T | 16.56T | 16.18T |
| Total Debt | 10.00T> | 10.00T> | 10.00T> | 10.00T> | 95.06T |
| Total Liabilities | 10.00T> | 10.00T> | 10.00T> | 10.00T> | 10.00T> |
| Stockholders Equity | 83.67T | 83.70T | 78.39T | 91.03T | 68.49T |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 16.19T | 32.54T | 5.77T | 26.69T | 14.62T |
| Operating Cash Flow | 25.30T | 42.83T | 14.42T | 36.28T | 21.22T |
| Investing Cash Flow | -18.56T | -26.01T | -20.71T | -22.45T | -22.64T |
| Financing Cash Flow | -8.54T | -16.37T | 5.76T | -14.70T | 11.10T |
Ecopetrol SA Technical Analysis
Neutral
13.55
Price Trends
13.38
Positive
12.05
Positive
10.59
Positive
Market Momentum
<0.01
Positive
45.13
Neutral
20.60
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EC, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 13.55 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.39, above the 50-day MA of 13.38, and above the 200-day MA of 10.59, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.13 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.60 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for EC.
Ecopetrol SA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $132.59B | 3.80 | 27.02% | 14.10% | -2.43% | 171.38% | |
69 Neutral | $8.37B | 10.05 | 21.09% | 2.57% | 34.29% | ― | |
67 Neutral | $28.27B | 12.89 | 11.20% | 18.88% | -7.38% | -39.57% | |
66 Neutral | $100.02B | 12.11 | 3.44% | 7.43% | 3.95% | -38.27% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
65 Neutral | $80.72B | 16.84 | 5.20% | 5.41% | -3.06% | 9.20% | |
57 Neutral | $18.95B | -17.16 | -2.22% | ― | -4.12% | -132.96% |
* Energy Sector Average
EC
Ecopetrol SA
13.78
6.10
79.47%
E
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55.44
27.95
101.69%
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88.07
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13.94%
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21.85
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108.35%
EQNR
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40.07
18.71
87.58%
YPF
YPF Sociedad Anonima
44.81
15.57
53.25%
Ecopetrol SA Corporate Events
Ecopetrol Moves for Control Stake in Brazil’s Brava Energia With Premium Tender Offer
Apr 23, 2026
On April 23, 2026, Ecopetrol S.A. signed a share purchase agreement with key shareholders of Brazil’s Brava Energia S.A. to acquire 120,813,490 shares, or about 26% of Brava’s capital, marking a major expansion of its Brazilian upstrea...
Ecopetrol Releases 2025 Year-End Periodic Report and Compliance Certification
Apr 22, 2026
On April 21, 2026, Ecopetrol S.A. announced it has published its Year-End Periodic Report for fiscal year 2025 as part of its 2025 Integrated Management Report, in line with Colombian regulatory requirements. The report, covering the year ended De...
Ecopetrol Downgraded to BB- as S&P Follows Colombia Sovereign Cut
Apr 9, 2026
On April 8, 2026, SP Global Ratings cut Ecopetrol’s global credit rating to BB- from BB with a stable outlook, mirroring a downgrade of Colombia’s sovereign rating driven by persistent fiscal imbalances and economic vulnerabilities. SP...
Ecopetrol Names Acting President as CEO Takes Leave Starting Late May
Apr 7, 2026
Ecopetrol’s board of directors, meeting on April 6, 2026, approved an unpaid leave of absence requested by company president Ricardo Roa Barragán, alongside a vacation period running from April 7 to May 27, 2026. The unpaid leave is sch...
Ecopetrol Secures USD 1.25 Billion Loan Authorization for Debt Management Strategy
Apr 3, 2026
On April 1, 2026, Colombia’s Ministry of Finance and Public Credit authorized Ecopetrol S.A. to execute a new external loan of up to USD 1.25 billion as part of its broader debt management strategy. The five-year facility, provided by Banco ...
Ecopetrol Secures COP 1.6 Trillion FEPC Settlement with Colombian Government
Apr 2, 2026
On March 31, 2026, Colombia’s Hydrocarbons Directorate ordered payment of COP 1.6 trillion from the Fuel Price Stabilization Fund for the first quarter of 2025, allocating COP 1.2 trillion to Ecopetrol and COP 0.4 trillion to Refinería ...
Ecopetrol Shareholders Approve 2025 Results, COP 121 Dividend and Solar Merger at March 27 Meeting
Mar 30, 2026
Ecopetrol S.A. held its Ordinary General Shareholders’ Meeting on March 27, 2026 in Bogotá, where investors approved the 2025 Integrated Management Report, the audited individual and consolidated financial statements, and the Board̵...
Ecopetrol Board Affirms Compliance and Governance Amid Calls for CEO’s Removal
Mar 25, 2026
Ecopetrol S.A.’s board of directors met on March 24, 2026, to address mounting concerns around President Ricardo Roa Barragán, including a union demand for his removal, minority shareholder requests tied to formal charges brought by Col...
Ecopetrol Board Probes President After Influence-Peddling Charges in Colombia
Mar 12, 2026
Ecopetrol S.A., Colombia’s largest integrated energy company, plays a central role in the country’s oil and gas industry, handling a majority share of hydrocarbon production, transportation and refining while also leading in petrochemi...
Ecopetrol Posts Solid 2025 Earnings, Boosts Reserves and Surpasses Energy Transition Targets
Mar 5, 2026
Ecopetrol S.A. has reported its audited full-year 2025 results, showing that in a year of lower Brent prices and market volatility it maintained production at 745,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, hit record refining throughputs of 430,000 ba...
Ecopetrol Publishes 2025 Social and Environmental Disclosure Chapter
Mar 5, 2026
On March 4, 2025, Ecopetrol S.A. announced it had published its 2025 chapter detailing practices, policies, processes and indicators on social and environmental matters, including climate, in line with Colombian financial regulator requirements. T...
Ecopetrol Proposes 2025 Dividend and COP 21 Trillion Sustainability Reserve
Mar 4, 2026
Ecopetrol S.A., Colombia’s dominant hydrocarbon producer, operates most of the country’s transportation, logistics, and refining systems and holds leading positions in petrochemicals and gas distribution. Through its controlling stake ...
Ecopetrol Revamps Board Leadership and Committees After February Governance Session
Feb 20, 2026
In a board meeting held on February 18 and 19, 2026, Ecopetrol S.A. elected Ángela María Robledo Gómez as chairwoman and Hildebrando Vélez Galeano as vice chairman of its board of directors. The company also reconstituted the m...
Ecopetrol Lifts 2025 Proven Reserves, Achieves 121% Replacement Despite Lower Brent Prices
Feb 20, 2026
Ecopetrol S.A., the Colombian state-linked energy major, reported on February 19, 2026, that its proven oil, condensate, and natural gas reserves (1P) reached 1,944 billion barrels of oil equivalent at the end of 2025, a 2.7% increase year on year...
Ecopetrol Sets Stricter Proxy Rules Ahead of March 27, 2026 Shareholder Meeting
Feb 20, 2026
Ecopetrol S.A., Colombia’s dominant integrated energy company with extensive operations in hydrocarbons, refining, petrochemicals, gas distribution, and power transmission across the Americas, continues to consolidate its role as a regional ...
Ecopetrol Calls March 27, 2026 General Shareholders’ Meeting With Electronic Voting and Merger Proposal
Feb 20, 2026
Ecopetrol S.A. has convened its General Shareholders’ Meeting for March 27, 2026, at Corferias in Bogotá, with the session to be held in person and streamed online, and voting expected to be conducted electronically via smart mobile dev...
Ecopetrol Sets Early March Dates to Present Q4 and Full-Year 2025 Results
Feb 19, 2026
Ecopetrol S.A., Colombia’s largest integrated energy company, has extensive operations across hydrocarbon production, transportation, refining, petrochemicals, gas distribution, and regional power transmission and infrastructure. Through its...
Ecopetrol Shareholders Confirm New Board for Remainder of 2025–2029 Term
Feb 6, 2026
On February 5, 2026, Ecopetrol S.A. held an Extraordinary Shareholders’ Meeting at which investors approved the full agenda and elected the company’s Board of Directors for the remainder of the 2025–2029 term, in line with Colomb...
Ecopetrol Files 2025 Corporate Governance Código País Report with Colombian Regulator
Jan 30, 2026
On January 30, 2026, Ecopetrol S.A. reported that it had submitted its 2025 Corporate Governance Best Practices Implementation Report – known as Código País – to the Financial Superintendence of Colombia. The filing, which wa...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.