Ecopetrol SA (EC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $18.07B
• Dividend Yield: 20.45%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.83M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 6.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.26
• Revenue Growth: -7.51%
• EPS Growth: -29.04%
• Country: US
• Employees: 18,903
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Integrated
• EPS (TTM): 0.25
• Shares Outstanding: 2,055,834,700
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,837,267
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,834,467
• PEG Ratio: -0.19
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.86
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.54
• P/FCF Ratio: 2.20
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.86
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: <0.01
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: <0.01
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: <0.01
• 1Y Price Target: $7.00
• Price Target Upside: -19.91% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Sell
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: $9.50 ▲(8.70% Upside)

Ecopetrol's strong valuation, characterized by a low P/E ratio and high dividend yield, is a significant positive factor. Financial performance is stable, but challenges such as high leverage and declining free cash flow need addressing. The earnings call provided a mixed sentiment with operational successes overshadowed by external financial pressures. Technical indicators suggest a bearish trend, which slightly dampens the overall score.

Positive Factors

Renewable Energy Expansion

Ecopetrol's commitment to renewable energy expansion supports its long-term sustainability strategy, reducing dependency on fossil fuels and aligning with global decarbonization trends.

Operational Efficiency

Ecopetrol's operational efficiencies enhance its cost management and profitability, providing a competitive edge in the volatile oil market and supporting long-term financial stability.

Gas Commercialization

Securing long-term gas contracts strengthens Ecopetrol's market position and revenue stability, diversifying its energy portfolio and reducing exposure to oil price volatility.

Negative Factors

Declining Revenue Growth

A decline in revenue growth indicates potential challenges in market demand or pricing power, which could impact Ecopetrol's ability to sustain long-term financial performance.

High Leverage

High leverage can strain Ecopetrol's financial flexibility, increasing risk during economic downturns or periods of low oil prices, potentially impacting future growth investments.

Declining Free Cash Flow

A significant decline in free cash flow could limit Ecopetrol's ability to fund new projects, pay down debt, or return capital to shareholders, affecting long-term growth prospects.

Ecopetrol SA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ecopetrol SA (EC) is Colombia's largest oil company and one of the main players in the Latin American oil and gas industry. Established in 1951, the company is involved in the exploration, production, refining, and transportation of hydrocarbons. Ecopetrol operates across the entire oil and gas value chain, including upstream activities such as oil and gas exploration and production, midstream operations including transportation and storage, and downstream activities such as refining and marketing of petroleum products. The company also has a growing portfolio in renewable energy initiatives, reflecting its commitment to sustainability.

How the Company Makes Money

Ecopetrol generates revenue primarily through the sale of crude oil and natural gas, which are its core products. The company leverages its extensive network of production and refining facilities to convert raw hydrocarbons into various petroleum products, which are then sold in both domestic and international markets. Key revenue streams include the sale of refined products like gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuel, along with natural gas sales to industrial and residential customers. Additionally, Ecopetrol benefits from transportation fees charged for the use of its pipelines and infrastructure. The company has established significant partnerships with international oil companies, which enhance its exploration capabilities and technological advancements. Fluctuations in global oil prices, regulatory changes, and investment in renewable energy projects also play a critical role in shaping its financial performance.

Ecopetrol SA Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Ecopetrol SA demonstrates strong profitability and efficient equity utilization, but faces challenges with declining revenue growth and high leverage. The company's cash flow generation remains solid, although the recent decline in free cash flow warrants attention. Overall, Ecopetrol maintains a stable financial position with room for improvement in cost management and leverage reduction.

Income Statement

Ecopetrol SA shows strong profitability with a consistent EBIT margin of around 29.36% in TTM, despite a slight decline in revenue growth. The gross profit margin has decreased from 46.12% in 2024 to 36.92% in TTM, indicating some pressure on cost management. Net profit margin remains healthy at 10.53% in TTM, although it has slightly decreased from previous years.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio is relatively high at 1.43, indicating significant leverage, which could pose a risk if not managed carefully. However, the return on equity is strong at 18.43% in TTM, reflecting efficient use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is stable, suggesting a balanced approach to asset financing.

Cash Flow

Ecopetrol SA's cash flow from operations is robust, with an operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.10 in TTM, indicating good cash generation relative to net income. However, free cash flow has declined significantly by 32.55% in TTM, which could impact future investments and debt repayments.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	10.00T>	10.00T>	10.00T>	10.00T>	91.88T	50.22T
Gross Profit	41.73T	46.85T	55.01T	70.15T	36.30T	12.66T
EBITDA	39.72T	55.75T	59.83T	73.81T	40.72T	17.36T
Net Income	11.39T	13.84T	21.06T	31.60T	15.65T	1.59T
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	10.00T>	10.00T>	10.00T>	10.00T>	10.00T>	10.00T>
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	14.34T	14.91T	14.20T	16.56T	16.18T	7.28T
Total Debt	10.00T>	10.00T>	10.00T>	10.00T>	95.06T	46.73T
Total Liabilities	10.00T>	10.00T>	10.00T>	10.00T>	10.00T>	84.19T
Stockholders Equity	79.22T	83.70T	78.39T	91.03T	68.49T	49.90T
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	22.28T	32.54T	5.77T	26.69T	14.62T	2.10T
Operating Cash Flow	32.00T	42.83T	14.42T	36.28T	21.22T	6.77T
Investing Cash Flow	-26.99T	-26.01T	-20.71T	-22.45T	-22.64T	-8.34T
Financing Cash Flow	-8.60T	-16.37T	5.76T	-14.70T	11.10T	-262.99B

Ecopetrol SA Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 8.74
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 8.74 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.03, below the 50-day MA of 9.09, and below the 200-day MA of 8.79, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.10 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.17 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 13.57 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for EC.

Ecopetrol SA Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
E	78 Outperform	$52.56B	19.98	4.83%	5.13%	-6.31%	-33.87%
PBR	73 Outperform	$72.90B	5.51	19.48%	14.22%	-13.68%	-13.96%
EC	71 Outperform	$18.07B	6.27	15.94%	20.45%	-7.51%	-29.04%
EQNR	71 Outperform	$59.31B	7.67	19.22%	8.93%	1.19%	-7.87%
NFG	67 Neutral	$7.81B	32.36	8.00%	2.55%	19.59%	-21.86%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
YPF	64 Neutral	$10.43B	7.92	10.88%	―	4.28%	―

Ecopetrol SA Corporate Events

Ecopetrol Announces Board Chair Resignation

On October 14, 2025, Dr. Mónica De Greiff Lindo announced her resignation as an independent member and Chair of Ecopetrol’s board of directors, effective immediately. The company plans to notify its majority shareholder and initiate procedures to appoint her replacement, with Vice Chair Dr. Angela María Robledo Gómez stepping in as interim Chair. Ecopetrol expressed gratitude for Dr. De Greiff Lindo’s contributions during her three-year tenure.

Ecopetrol Enters Confidentiality Agreement with Canacol Energy

Ecopetrol S.A. announced that it has entered into a confidentiality agreement with Canadian gas producer Canacol Energy in late August 2025. This agreement aims to facilitate information exchange under legal safeguards without creating binding obligations or commitments for future actions. The company reassures stakeholders that any significant activities requiring public disclosure will be communicated through official channels, ensuring transparency in its operations.

Ecopetrol Announces Leadership Changes in Board of Directors

On August 19, 2025, Ecopetrol S.A. announced that Dr. Guillermo García Realpe resigned as Chairman of the Board for personal reasons but will remain a board member and Chair of the Compensation, Nomination, and Culture Committee. Dr. Mónica de Greiff Lindo was appointed as the new Chairwoman and Dr. Angela María Robledo Gómez as Vice Chairwoman, effective August 20, 2025. This leadership transition is expected to maintain stability and continuity in the company’s strategic direction, potentially impacting its operations and stakeholder relations positively.

Ecopetrol Reports Strong First Half 2025 Performance Amid Market Challenges

In the first half of 2025, Ecopetrol S.A. demonstrated resilience amidst challenging market conditions, achieving a net income of COP 4.9 trillion and an EBITDA of COP 24.4 trillion with a 40% margin. The company maintained strong operational performance through market diversification, cost optimization, and strategic investments, including the acquisition of a 45% stake in CPO-09 and the Windpeshi wind project. Ecopetrol’s efforts in the hydrocarbons sector led to increased production, while its energy transition initiatives marked significant progress with the commercialization of natural gas and the development of renewable energy projects. The company’s strategic focus on operational growth and financial stability aims to maximize long-term value for shareholders.

Ecopetrol S.A. Schedules Q2 2025 Earnings Release and Conference Call

Ecopetrol S.A. announced that it will release its financial and operating results for the second quarter of 2025 after market close on August 12, 2025. A virtual conference call to discuss the results will be held on August 13, 2025, with options to participate in Spanish or English. This announcement is significant as it provides stakeholders with insights into the company’s financial health and operational performance, potentially impacting its market positioning and investor relations.