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Ecopetrol SA
(NYSE:EC)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$15.50
▲(14.39% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/02/26
The score is driven primarily by a still-sound but weakening fundamental profile (negative revenue trend, compressed margins/returns, and elevated leverage) balanced by constructive technical trend signals and supportive valuation via a high dividend yield. Earnings-call commentary was net positive on operations/cash generation but tempered by FX, tax, and regulatory/transaction risks.
Positive Factors
Cash generation & liquidity
Sustained strong operating cash flow and positive free cash flow provide durable funding for organic CapEx, debt repayment and dividends. A COP 14T cash buffer and management guidance signaling no incremental debt for organic CapEx improve resilience to commodity cycles and refinancing stress over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Above‑equity leverage and material debt burdens amplify downside in a commodity downturn and constrain capital allocation. Higher leverage reduces headroom for M&A or accelerated transition spending, and increases sensitivity to FX, rates and sovereign-linked credit actions over the coming months.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation & liquidity
Sustained strong operating cash flow and positive free cash flow provide durable funding for organic CapEx, debt repayment and dividends. A COP 14T cash buffer and management guidance signaling no incremental debt for organic CapEx improve resilience to commodity cycles and refinancing stress over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Ecopetrol SA Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
EBITDA by Segment
Highlights earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization for each business segment, providing insight into the profitability and operational efficiency of different areas within the company.
Highlights earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization for each business segment, providing insight into the profitability and operational efficiency of different areas within the company.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyEcopetrol SA (EC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$31.35B
Dividend Yield18.88%
Average Volume (3M)3.18M
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.6
Beta (1Y)0.06
Revenue Growth-6.14%
EPS Growth-33.61%
CountryUS
Employees28,197
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Integrated
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4238.20
Shares Outstanding2,055,834,700
10 Day Avg. Volume2,842,091
30 Day Avg. Volume3,177,641
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.23
Price to Book (P/B)0.93
Price to Sales (P/S)0.70
P/FCF Ratio4.79
Enterprise Value/Market Cap6.60K
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.78
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.46
Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.03
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$15.00Price Target Upside10.70% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)7,733.36
Revenue Forecast (FY)$10.00T>
Ecopetrol SA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ecopetrol SA engages in the exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas. It operates through the following segments: Exploration and Production, Transportation and Logistics, and Refining and Petrochemicals. The Explorati...
How the Company Makes Money
Ecopetrol makes money mainly by selling hydrocarbons and refined products across an integrated value chain. In upstream (exploration and production), it generates revenue from the sale of crude oil, natural gas, and associated liquids; earnings ar...
Ecopetrol SA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 12, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a largely positive operational and financial performance: strong EBITDA (COP 13.5T) and a 47% margin, refinery results and throughput gains, production stability with maintained annual guidance, meaningful cost reductions, healthy liquidity and free cash flow, and clear progress on strategic transactions and gas/import solutions. Offsetting these positives were notable external pressures — FX appreciation, wider crude differentials, higher freight/logistics costs, tax headwinds (including a material wealth tax), some short-term production declines (gas and international), and transactional/regulatory uncertainties. On balance, the highlights (profitability, cash generation, operational gains, portfolio and gas initiatives) outweigh the lowlights, though the company still faces meaningful macro and tax challenges that temper the outlook.Positive Updates
Strong Group Financial Results
Revenues of COP 28.6 trillion, EBITDA of COP 13.5 trillion, and net income of COP 2.9 trillion in Q1 2026; EBITDA margin expanded to 47%, and free cash flow was positive at COP 4.0 trillion.
Negative Updates
Pressure from Exchange Rate and Differentials
Appreciation of the Colombian peso pressured revenues and widened crude differentials vs prior year, negatively impacting dollar-denominated metrics and contributing to YoY revenue/margin pressures despite strong domestic operations.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Group Financial Results
Revenues of COP 28.6 trillion, EBITDA of COP 13.5 trillion, and net income of COP 2.9 trillion in Q1 2026; EBITDA margin expanded to 47%, and free cash flow was positive at COP 4.0 trillion.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The call reiterated 2026 guidance: full‑year production target of 730–740 kboe/d (Q1 at 725 kboe/d; domestic crude 527 kb/d), a total investment plan of $5.4–$6.7bn (≈23% executed to date; Q1 organic CapEx $1.4bn; 73% of Q1 CapEx to growth, 27% to maintenance; by line ~64% hydrocarbons / 28% transmission & roads / 8% energy transition) and a base‑case Brent assumption of ~$83/bbl (planning range discussed $83–$93/bbl) with an FX planning band of COP 3,600–4,000; management flagged FX sensitivity of ~COP 1.6 trillion impact on EBITDA and ~COP 0.8 trillion on net income per COP 100 FX move, pro‑forma leverage around 2.1–2.3x debt/EBITDA (1.6x excluding ISA), no incremental debt expected to finance Ecopetrol S.A.’s organic CapEx, and an expectation to execute toward the upper end of the CapEx range while maintaining liquidity (Q1 EBITDA COP 13.5 trillion; EBITDA margin 47%; net income COP 2.9 trillion; cash ~COP 14 trillion; free cash flow COP 4 trillion; FEPC balance COP 4.2 trillion).Ecopetrol SA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
66
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
64
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 10.00T> | 10.00T> | 10.00T> | 10.00T> | 10.00T> | 91.88T |
| Gross Profit | 37.91T | 35.05T | 46.85T | 55.01T | 70.15T | 36.30T |
| EBITDA | 41.09T | 39.95T | 55.75T | 59.83T | 73.81T | 40.72T |
| Net Income | 8.73T | 8.40T | 13.84T | 21.06T | 31.60T | 15.65T |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 10.00T> | 10.00T> | 10.00T> | 10.00T> | 10.00T> | 10.00T> |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 13.82T | 12.52T | 14.91T | 14.20T | 16.56T | 16.18T |
| Total Debt | 10.00T> | 10.00T> | 10.00T> | 10.00T> | 10.00T> | 95.06T |
| Total Liabilities | 10.00T> | 10.00T> | 10.00T> | 10.00T> | 10.00T> | 10.00T> |
| Stockholders Equity | 79.92T | 83.67T | 83.70T | 78.39T | 91.03T | 68.49T |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 16.85T | 16.19T | 32.54T | 5.77T | 26.69T | 14.62T |
| Operating Cash Flow | 29.24T | 25.30T | 42.83T | 14.42T | 36.28T | 21.22T |
| Investing Cash Flow | -16.26T | -18.56T | -26.01T | -20.71T | -22.45T | -22.64T |
| Financing Cash Flow | -12.77T | -8.54T | -16.37T | 5.76T | -14.70T | 11.10T |
Ecopetrol SA Technical Analysis
Positive
13.55
Price Trends
14.51
Positive
13.67
Positive
11.64
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.05
Positive
47.11
Neutral
10.65
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 13.55 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.41, below the 50-day MA of 14.51, and above the 200-day MA of 11.64, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.05 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.11 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.65 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for EC.
Ecopetrol SA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $100.01B | 6.15 | 27.02% | 14.10% | 3.35% | 133.76% | |
66 Neutral | $31.35B | 11.65 | 10.79% | 18.88% | -6.14% | -33.61% | |
66 Neutral | $7.54B | 10.65 | 20.37% | 2.57% | 26.21% | 1517.69% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
65 Neutral | $68.35B | 25.51 | 5.25% | 5.41% | -3.06% | 9.20% | |
64 Neutral | $18.83B | 71.98 | 2.93% | ― | -4.17% | -119.47% | |
60 Neutral | $82.00B | 14.64 | 13.33% | 7.43% | -1.94% | -30.62% |
* Energy Sector Average
EC
Ecopetrol SA
14.70
6.25
73.96%
E
Eni SPA
46.87
15.33
48.60%
NFG
National Fuel Gas Company
79.34
-2.26
-2.77%
PBR
Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras
16.11
4.10
34.15%
EQNR
Equinor ASA
32.04
7.57
30.95%
YPF
YPF Sociedad Anonima
44.40
13.50
43.69%
Ecopetrol SA Corporate Events
Ecopetrol Secures COP 1 Trillion FEPC Payment from Colombian Government
Jul 1, 2026
On June 30, 2026, Ecopetrol Group received recognition and payment from the Colombian National Government for the full balance of its Fuel Price Stabilization Fund (FEPC) accounts receivable for the second quarter of 2025, totaling about COP 1 tri...
S&P Affirms Ecopetrol’s BB- Rating and Stable Outlook Amid Stronger Liquidity
Jun 17, 2026
On June 16, 2026, SP Global Ratings affirmed Ecopetrol’s global issuer credit rating at BB- with a stable outlook and maintained its stand-alone credit profile at bb+. The decision underscores the company’s ongoing importance to Colomb...
Ecopetrol Temporarily Halts Brazil Tender Offer After CVM Requests Changes
Jun 16, 2026
Ecopetrol S.A., Colombia’s largest integrated energy company, controls a major share of the country’s oil and gas production, transport and refining assets, and is a key player in petrochemicals and gas distribution. Through its majori...
Ecopetrol Secures Six-Year Labor Deal With Oil Workers Union in Colombia
Jun 15, 2026
On June 13, 2026, Ecopetrol S.A. reached a final six‑year collective bargaining agreement with the majority Oil Workers Union (USO), effective retroactively from January 1, 2026. The company also concluded 66 final agreements with other unio...
Ecopetrol Board Postpones CEO’s Unpaid Leave and Confirms Acting Chief Executive
May 28, 2026
Ecopetrol S.A., the Colombian integrated energy group, announced that its board of directors met on May 27, 2026 and approved a change to the previously disclosed leave schedule of CEO Ricardo Roa Barragán. The board postponed the start of hi...
Ecopetrol Launches Premium Tender Offer to Build Controlling Stake in Brazil’s Brava Energia
May 26, 2026
On May 25, 2026, Ecopetrol S.A., Colombia’s largest integrated energy company with extensive hydrocarbon, power transmission, and infrastructure interests across the Americas, detailed its growing international footprint, including operation...
Ecopetrol Advances 49% Acquisition of JK1 and JK2 Wind Projects in La Guajira
May 20, 2026
On May 19, 2026, Ecopetrol announced that it has met the conditions to acquire a 49% interest in the JK1 and JK2 wind projects, part of the Jemeiwaa Ka’I wind cluster in La Guajira, under its investment agreement with AES Colombia. The two p...
Ecopetrol Publishes First-Quarter 2026 Regulatory Report
May 15, 2026
Ecopetrol S.A., Colombia’s largest integrated energy company, has a dominant role in national oil and gas production, transportation and refining, alongside strong positions in petrochemicals, gas distribution and regional power transmission...
Ecopetrol Delivers Strong 1Q26 Margins Amid Volatile Oil Market and Advances Energy Transition
May 13, 2026
Ecopetrol reported first-quarter 2026 results on May 12, 2026, showing revenues of COP 28.6 trillion, EBITDA of COP 13.5 trillion with a 47% margin, and net income of COP 2.9 trillion in a volatile oil market shaped by the Middle East conflict sin...
Ecopetrol Board Member Juan Gonzalo Castaño Resigns, Board Confirms Quorum Intact
May 13, 2026
On May 12, 2026, Ecopetrol S.A. announced that Juan Gonzalo Castaño Valderrama resigned as a non-independent member of its Board of Directors for personal and professional reasons, effective at the close of that day’s board meeting. The...
Ecopetrol Discloses Formal Charges Against President Ricardo Roa Over 2022 Campaign Spending
May 12, 2026
On May 11, 2026, Ecopetrol reported that Colombia’s General Prosecutor’s Office has formally charged its president, Ricardo Roa, over alleged breaches of spending limits in the 2022 presidential campaign. The charges, presented before ...
Ecopetrol Formalizes Bylaws Amendment Approved by Shareholders
May 11, 2026
Ecopetrol S.A. has formalized an amendment to its Bylaws by registering the changes with the Bogotá Chamber of Commerce, completing a process that began with approval by the General Shareholders’ Meeting on November 11, 2025 and was doc...
Ecopetrol Files 2025 Form 20-F with U.S. SEC, Bolstering Market Transparency
May 1, 2026
On April 30, 2026, Ecopetrol S.A. announced it had filed its Annual Report on Form 20-F for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. This filing fulfills the company’s U.S. reporting obligati...
Ecopetrol Sets May Dates for First-Quarter 2026 Earnings Release and Call
Apr 29, 2026
On April 28, 2026, Ecopetrol S.A. announced it would publish its financial and operational results for the first quarter of 2026 on May 12, 2026, after markets close. The Colombian energy group also scheduled a virtual earnings conference call for...
Moody’s Cuts Ecopetrol’s Global Rating to Ba2, Keeps Stand‑Alone Profile Intact
Apr 24, 2026
On April 23, 2026, Moody’s Ratings downgraded Ecopetrol’s global credit rating from Ba1 to Ba2 and shifted its outlook from stable to negative, citing a weaker perceived likelihood and predictability of support from the Colombian gover...
Ecopetrol Moves for Control Stake in Brazil’s Brava Energia With Premium Tender Offer
Apr 23, 2026
On April 23, 2026, Ecopetrol S.A. signed a share purchase agreement with key shareholders of Brazil’s Brava Energia S.A. to acquire 120,813,490 shares, or about 26% of Brava’s capital, marking a major expansion of its Brazilian upstrea...
Ecopetrol Releases 2025 Year-End Periodic Report and Compliance Certification
Apr 22, 2026
On April 21, 2026, Ecopetrol S.A. announced it has published its Year-End Periodic Report for fiscal year 2025 as part of its 2025 Integrated Management Report, in line with Colombian regulatory requirements. The report, covering the year ended De...
Ecopetrol Downgraded to BB- as S&P Follows Colombia Sovereign Cut
Apr 9, 2026
On April 8, 2026, SP Global Ratings cut Ecopetrol’s global credit rating to BB- from BB with a stable outlook, mirroring a downgrade of Colombia’s sovereign rating driven by persistent fiscal imbalances and economic vulnerabilities. SP...
Ecopetrol Names Acting President as CEO Takes Leave Starting Late May
Apr 7, 2026
Ecopetrol’s board of directors, meeting on April 6, 2026, approved an unpaid leave of absence requested by company president Ricardo Roa Barragán, alongside a vacation period running from April 7 to May 27, 2026. The unpaid leave is sch...
Ecopetrol Secures USD 1.25 Billion Loan Authorization for Debt Management Strategy
Apr 3, 2026
On April 1, 2026, Colombia’s Ministry of Finance and Public Credit authorized Ecopetrol S.A. to execute a new external loan of up to USD 1.25 billion as part of its broader debt management strategy. The five-year facility, provided by Banco ...
Ecopetrol Secures COP 1.6 Trillion FEPC Settlement with Colombian Government
Apr 2, 2026
On March 31, 2026, Colombia’s Hydrocarbons Directorate ordered payment of COP 1.6 trillion from the Fuel Price Stabilization Fund for the first quarter of 2025, allocating COP 1.2 trillion to Ecopetrol and COP 0.4 trillion to Refinería ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.