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Ecopetrol (EC)
NYSE:EC

Ecopetrol SA (EC) AI Stock Analysis

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EC

Ecopetrol SA

(NYSE:EC)

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Neutral 67 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$14.00
▲(17.75% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:03/07/26
The score is anchored by weakening financial momentum (declining revenues/margins, softer ROE, and weaker cash conversion) and moderate leverage, partially offset by constructive price momentum and attractive valuation (low P/E and high dividend yield). Earnings call guidance was disciplined but highlighted meaningful oil-price and regulatory/tax risks.
Positive Factors
Integrated market position and infrastructure control
Ecopetrol’s vertical integration across upstream, midstream and downstream, plus its ISA stake and regional infrastructure footprint, creates durable cash-flow diversification. Control of pipelines, terminals and refining reduces third-party exposure, supports tariff income and stabilizes margins across commodity cycles.
Consistent operational delivery and reserve replacement
Sustained production performance and a >100% reserve-replacement ratio extend reserve life (~7.8 years) and support medium-term output. Reliable volumes underpin stable revenue potential and justify ongoing hydrocarbon-focused capex allocations, reducing depletion risk and supporting long-term cash generation.
Material efficiency gains and solid cash generation
Large, repeatable efficiency savings and meaningful free cash flow provide durable financial flexibility. Sustained cash generation can fund dividends, sustain capex for prioritized hydrocarbon projects and energy transition investments while allowing buffers for contingencies and debt management over the coming months.
Negative Factors
Declining revenue and compressing net margins
A three-year revenue decline and a marked drop in net margin materially weaken earnings power and cash conversion. If structural demand or pricing pressures persist, the company’s ability to sustain dividends, fund strategic investments and deleverage will be strained, increasing fiscal sensitivity to price or policy shocks.
Large tax/regulatory contingent liability (DIAN VAT dispute)
A ~COP 9.6 trillion VAT dispute is a multi-year contingent liability that could require significant cash outflows or provisions if resolved adversely. Prolonged uncertainty complicates capital planning, increases effective tax burden per barrel, and raises execution risk for near-term investment and payout policies.
Moderate-to-elevated leverage and sovereign-linked rating risk
Leverage above parity increases sensitivity to profit shocks and funding costs. The sovereign-driven Fitch downgrade raises refinancing and borrowing risk, possibly lifting funding costs for medium-term projects and limiting flexibility to accelerate deleveraging or sustain high cash distributions if earnings weaken further.

Ecopetrol SA (EC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Ecopetrol SA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionEcopetrol S.A. operates as an integrated energy company. The company operates through four segments: Exploration and Production; Transport and Logistics; Refining, Petrochemical and Biofuels; and Electric Power Transmission and Toll Roads Concessions. It engages in the exploration and production of oil and gas; transportation of crude oil, motor fuels, fuel oil, and other refined products, including diesel, jet, and biofuels; processing and refining crude oil; distribution of natural gas and LPG; sale of refined and petrochemical products; supplying of electric power transmission services; design, development, construction, operation, and maintenance of road and energy infrastructure projects; and supplying of information technology and telecommunications services. As of December 31, 2021, the company had approximately 9,127 kilometers of crude oil and multi-purpose pipelines. It also produces and commercializes polypropylene resins and compounds, and masterbatches; and offers industrial service sales to customers and specialized management services. It has operations in Colombia, the United States, Asia, Central America and the Caribbean, Europe, South America, and internationally. The company was formerly known as Empresa Colombiana de Petróleos and changed its name to Ecopetrol S.A. in June 2003. Ecopetrol S.A. was incorporated in 1948 and is based in Bogotá, Colombia.
How the Company Makes MoneyEcopetrol generates revenue primarily through the exploration and production of oil and natural gas, which constitutes its largest revenue stream. The company sells its crude oil and natural gas on both domestic and international markets, pricing influenced by global oil prices. Additionally, revenue is derived from refining operations where crude oil is processed into various refined products, which are then sold to consumers and businesses. The company also earns income from transportation services, as it operates an extensive network of pipelines that facilitate the movement of hydrocarbons. Significant partnerships with international oil companies for joint ventures in exploration and production further enhance its revenue potential. Factors such as fluctuations in global oil prices, production levels, and operational efficiency play a crucial role in determining the company's earnings.

Ecopetrol SA Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
EBITDA by Segment
EBITDA by Segment
Highlights earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization for each business segment, providing insight into the profitability and operational efficiency of different areas within the company.
Chart InsightsEcopetrol's EBITDA performance shows a mixed trend across segments. Upstream EBITDA, after peaking in 2022, has seen fluctuations but remains robust. Downstream EBITDA has been volatile, with recent declines, yet the earnings call highlights a rebound in refining operations, suggesting potential recovery. Energy Transmission and Toll Roads show consistent growth, aligning with strategic milestones in transportation. Despite currency fluctuations and political risks, the company's strong operational performance and sustainability achievements, including a 42% net income growth, indicate resilience and a positive outlook for future EBITDA stabilization.
Data provided by:The Fly

Ecopetrol SA Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Mar 04, 2026
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a broadly positive operational and financial performance: key targets were met or exceeded (production, transportation, refining throughput, reserves replacement, renewables capacity) and efficiency programs delivered significant savings and improved margins. At the same time, material headwinds — notably a ~15% drop in Brent, tax and regulatory disputes (DIAN VAT), external events and FX/tax pressures — weighed on net income and create notable financial and operational risks. Overall, management demonstrated resilience, retained strong liquidity and a disciplined capital plan while outlining continued investments in hydrocarbons and energy transition.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong EBITDA and Margin Resilience
EBITDA of COP 46.7 trillion with an EBITDA margin aligned with the annual target of 39%, supported by refining recovery, Transportation stability and efficiency programs.
Production, Transportation and Refining Operational Targets Met
Average production of 745,000 barrels per day; transportation throughput above 1.1 million barrels per day; refining throughput ~417,000 bpd (annual 470,000 bpd reported) — all within or in line with targets.
Record and Improved Margins in Refining
Gross refining margin increased 32% year-over-year from $9.9 to $13.1 per barrel; refining EBITDA rose 20% to COP 2.7 trillion.
Reserves Replacement and 1P Reserves Growth
Reserves replacement ratio of 121% (highest in 4 years); 1P reserves reached 1.944 billion boe, driven by organic growth and a 314 million barrel crude incorporation (1.6x annual production).
Exploration Execution Above Target
Drilled 16 wells in 2025 versus a 10-well target (60% above target); achieved a 3-year average exploration success rate of 44%, outperforming industry averages.
Energy Transition and Renewables Progress
Renewable capacity reached ~951 MW, exceeding the 900 MW target; operating capacity rose 94% (186 MW to 381 MW); Windpeshi (205 MW) reached FID and Cartagena PEM electrolyzer (800 t/yr green H2) started installation.
Efficiency Program and Cost Improvements
Profitability and efficiency programs delivered ~COP 6.6 trillion (1.3x the adjusted annual target of COP 5 trillion); efficiencies contributed ~COP 3.6 trillion to EBITDA; CapEx efficiencies COP 2 trillion and OpEx COP 1.8 trillion saved.
Unit Cost and Lifting Cost Reductions
Total unit cost for Hydrocarbons at $46/bbl, down $1.7 (3.4%) vs 2024; lifting cost $12.2/bbl, $0.3 lower than 2024; drilling and completion efficiencies > $139 million.
Strong Cash Generation and Liquidity
Consolidated cash position of COP 12.7 trillion and free cash flow of COP 11 trillion for 2025; executed $6.3 billion in organic investment within plan range.
Social and Environmental Achievements
Reduced 561,000 tons CO2e (165% of annual target); Gold Standard methane recognition; water reuse 181 million m3 (82% of water used, +10% vs 2024); energy optimization 4.79 PJ (1.6x annual target).
Shareholder Returns and Dividend Proposal
Transferred COP 35 trillion to the nation (dividends, taxes, royalties) and Board proposed dividend of COP 110 per share (50% of net income); total shareholder return 24% locally and 39% for US shareholders.
Negative Updates
Lower Brent Prices Impact on Profitability
Brent average fell ~15% year-over-year (from $80 in 2024 to $68 in 2025), negatively impacting revenues and contributing materially to lower net income.
Net Income Pressure from External Factors
Net income for 2025 was COP 9 trillion (below 2024 levels). External factors (price decline, inflation, FX revaluation) had a combined impact of ~COP 7.2 trillion; external events and taxes reduced net income by ~COP 1 trillion; external factors (COP 5.6 trillion) explained ~95% of the decline vs 2024.
Tax and Regulatory Contingency (DIAN/VAT on Fuels)
Ongoing DIAN import VAT dispute amounting to ~COP 9.6 trillion (including estimated penalties and interest); administrative stage completed for three cases and legal process ongoing — potential long-duration exposure (3–6 years) despite management estimating low loss risk.
Accounting/Reclassification Questions on Reserves
Large reserves incorporation (314 million barrels) included monetized royalty volumes via securitization/reclassification; analysts flagged this as an accounting/contractual change (monetization vs prior in-kind royalty flows) that affects cost/revenue presentation and comparability.
Operational Disruptions and Field-Level Declines
Natural gas decline reduced gas volumes by 4.7 million boe (partially offset by Pauto); production impacted by blockades, weather and infrastructure events (electric tower slide) affecting fields such as Rubiales, Caño Sur, Castilla and Chichimene.
Exploration Shortfalls and Failed Wells
Of 16 wells drilled in 2025, 4 failed and 5 remain under evaluation; highlights include successes but also a non-negligible failure count impacting near-term reserve additions.
Exchange Rate and Freight/Export Headwinds
Transport revenues were negatively affected by exchange rate movements (transport rates in dollars); exposure to volatile freight costs and heavier crude discounts (increased Venezuelan supply) could pressure realized differentials despite commercial mitigation efforts.
Tax Components Raise Breakeven
Net income breakeven reported near $50/bbl for 2025 and targeted ~$46–47/bbl for 2026; taxes account for $9–$10 per barrel of the breakeven, indicating sensitivity to tax policy and market price swings.
Refining/Energy Reliability Work Remaining
Cartagena electrical reliability program progressed to 81% of milestones with connection to national grid and 70 MW backup, but full risk mitigation expected in 2026 (some operational risk remains until completion).
Company Guidance
Ecopetrol guided a disciplined 2026 plan with investments of $5.4–$6.7 billion (COP 22–27 trillion) based on Brent $60/bbl and FX COP 4,050/USD, targeting a 40% EBITDA margin, production of 730–740 kboe/d, refinery throughput of 410–420 kb/d, transport >1.1 million bpd, ~70% of capex to hydrocarbons, drilling 380–430 development wells and up to 10 exploratory wells, adding ~750 MW of renewables, capturing ~COP 5.7 trillion in efficiencies, delivering COP 28 trillion in transfers to the nation, and maintaining a net‑income breakeven near $46–47/bbl (with a $9–10/bbl tax component); the Board proposed a COP 110/share dividend (50% of net income) while aiming to keep gross debt/EBITDA around 2.3x (1.6x ex‑ISA) and avoid incremental debt for organic capex.

Ecopetrol SA Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Still profitable and cash-generative, but fundamentals have softened: revenue declined across 2023–2025, net margin fell to ~7.5% in 2025, and cash conversion weakened (operating cash flow <1x net income). Leverage is moderate-to-elevated (debt-to-equity ~1.30) with ROE cooling to ~10%, increasing sensitivity if the downturn persists.
Income Statement
62
Positive
Profitability remains solid for an integrated oil & gas company, with 2025 margins still healthy (gross margin ~31%, EBIT margin ~22%, EBITDA margin ~35%) and positive earnings. However, the earnings profile has weakened materially versus the prior cycle: revenue declined in each of the last three annual periods (2023–2025), and net margin fell to ~7.5% in 2025 from ~10.4% in 2024 and ~14.7% in 2023. Overall, the business is still profitable, but the trajectory is clearly down from peak conditions.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The balance sheet shows moderate-to-elevated leverage, with debt running above equity across the period (debt-to-equity ~1.30 in 2025; ~1.43 in 2024). Equity is sizable (~83.7T in 2025) and assets are large (~283.8T), but returns have cooled meaningfully as profitability fell (return on equity ~10% in 2025 vs ~16.5% in 2024 and ~26.9% in 2023). Leverage looks manageable in normal conditions, but the company is more exposed if the earnings downturn persists.
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
Cash generation is positive with free cash flow of ~16.2T in 2025, but cash flow quality and momentum are mixed. Free cash flow declined ~5.9% in 2025 after a strong 2024 rebound, and operating cash flow covered net income by less than 1x in 2025 (~0.73x), indicating earnings converted to cash less efficiently that year. Free cash flow was also below net income in 2025 (~0.64x), though not severely, suggesting ongoing (but not exceptional) cash support for dividends/deleveraging.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue10.00T>10.00T>10.00T>10.00T>91.88T
Gross Profit35.05T46.85T55.01T70.15T36.30T
EBITDA39.29T55.75T59.83T73.81T40.72T
Net Income8.40T13.84T21.06T31.60T15.65T
Balance Sheet
Total Assets10.00T>10.00T>10.00T>10.00T>10.00T>
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments12.52T14.91T14.20T16.56T16.18T
Total Debt10.00T>10.00T>10.00T>10.00T>95.06T
Total Liabilities10.00T>10.00T>10.00T>10.00T>10.00T>
Stockholders Equity83.67T83.70T78.39T91.03T68.49T
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow16.19T32.54T5.77T26.69T14.62T
Operating Cash Flow25.30T42.83T14.42T36.28T21.22T
Investing Cash Flow-18.56T-26.01T-20.71T-22.45T-22.64T
Financing Cash Flow-8.54T-16.37T5.76T-14.70T11.10T

Ecopetrol SA Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price11.89
Price Trends
50DMA
12.20
Positive
100DMA
10.95
Positive
200DMA
9.98
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.48
Negative
RSI
69.53
Neutral
STOCH
93.42
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 11.89 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.64, below the 50-day MA of 12.20, and above the 200-day MA of 9.98, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.48 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 69.53 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 93.42 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for EC.

Ecopetrol SA Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
77
Outperform
$117.51B3.8027.02%14.10%-11.63%-15.67%
71
Outperform
$8.99B10.0521.09%2.57%28.56%593.72%
67
Neutral
$29.03B12.8911.20%18.88%-7.45%-28.80%
67
Neutral
$91.21B12.113.33%7.43%1.53%-35.81%
65
Neutral
$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
62
Neutral
$75.75B19.505.20%5.41%-3.84%15.75%
57
Neutral
$15.49B-17.14-2.22%-2.76%56.81%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
EC
Ecopetrol SA
14.11
4.81
51.79%
E
Eni SPA
51.59
22.03
74.50%
NFG
National Fuel Gas Company
94.61
18.39
24.12%
PBR
Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras
19.17
6.50
51.33%
EQNR
Equinor ASA
35.63
11.98
50.66%
YPF
YPF Sociedad Anonima
37.45
3.66
10.83%

Ecopetrol SA Corporate Events

Ecopetrol Posts Solid 2025 Earnings, Boosts Reserves and Surpasses Energy Transition Targets
Mar 5, 2026

Ecopetrol S.A. has reported its audited full-year 2025 results, showing that in a year of lower Brent prices and market volatility it maintained production at 745,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, hit record refining throughputs of 430,000 barrels per day in the fourth quarter, and expanded its transport system while delivering COP 46.7 trillion in EBITDA and COP 9.0 trillion in net income. The group strengthened its reserve base with a 121% replacement index, advanced key discoveries to development, achieved a four-year-best crude differential, accelerated its energy transition by surpassing its 2030 self-generation target and securing material new gas volumes and import capacity, won over USD 1 billion in regional transmission and roads projects, and, despite a 10.2% drop in sales revenue versus 2024, sustained a robust 39% EBITDA margin and proposed a COP 110 per share dividend for 2026, underlining continued significant contributions to the Colombian state.

The most recent analyst rating on (EC) stock is a Sell with a $12.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ecopetrol SA stock, see the EC Stock Forecast page.

Ecopetrol Publishes 2025 Social and Environmental Disclosure Chapter
Mar 5, 2026

On March 4, 2025, Ecopetrol S.A. announced it had published its 2025 chapter detailing practices, policies, processes and indicators on social and environmental matters, including climate, in line with Colombian financial regulator requirements. The material, available in Spanish on the company’s website, reflects ongoing regulatory-driven transparency on non-financial performance and offers investors and other stakeholders deeper insight into Ecopetrol’s management of environmental and social risks.

By formally disclosing this information, Ecopetrol reinforces its positioning as a regional integrated energy leader that is increasingly framing its strategy and reporting around sustainability metrics. The move may help support market confidence, align the group with evolving ESG expectations in global capital markets and clarify how social and climate considerations intersect with its core oil, gas and infrastructure businesses.

The most recent analyst rating on (EC) stock is a Sell with a $12.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ecopetrol SA stock, see the EC Stock Forecast page.

Ecopetrol Proposes 2025 Dividend and COP 21 Trillion Sustainability Reserve
Mar 4, 2026

Ecopetrol S.A., Colombia’s dominant hydrocarbon producer, operates most of the country’s transportation, logistics, and refining systems and holds leading positions in petrochemicals and gas distribution. Through its controlling stake in ISA, it has expanded into power transmission in Brazil, Chile, Peru, and Bolivia, road concessions in Chile, and regional telecoms, while maintaining exploration and production interests in the U.S., Brazil, and Mexico.

On March 4, 2026, Ecopetrol filed a Form 6-K detailing a board-approved proposal for distributing 2025 earnings that will be presented to shareholders at a meeting expected on March 26, 2026. The plan calls for an ordinary dividend of COP 110 per share, equivalent to a 50.1% payout of 2025 net income, with dividends to be paid no later than April 30, 2026 in coordination with Fuel Price Stabilization Fund debt payments, while COP 21.14 trillion would be allocated to an occasional reserve to bolster financial sustainability and strategic flexibility.

The proposal is based on net income after tax of COP 9.03 trillion and the release of COP 17.14 trillion in reserves from previous years, leaving COP 25.66 trillion available to shareholders. By channeling the bulk of this amount into a sustainability reserve and limiting cash distributions to ordinary dividends aligned with its stated policy, Ecopetrol signals a cautious capital allocation stance aimed at preserving balance sheet strength as it executes its broader energy and infrastructure strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (EC) stock is a Sell with a $12.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ecopetrol SA stock, see the EC Stock Forecast page.

Ecopetrol Revamps Board Leadership and Committees After February Governance Session
Feb 20, 2026

In a board meeting held on February 18 and 19, 2026, Ecopetrol S.A. elected Ángela María Robledo Gómez as chairwoman and Hildebrando Vélez Galeano as vice chairman of its board of directors. The company also reconstituted the membership of its audit and risk, business, corporate governance and sustainability, remuneration and culture, territorial transformation and HSE, and technology and innovation committees.

The reshuffle formalized on February 19, 2026 reflects a broader refresh of Ecopetrol’s governance, with new directors gaining key committee roles and long‑serving member Álvaro Torres Macías stepping down from his posts. The company highlighted its gratitude to Torres and formally welcomed new board members Carolina Arias Hurtado, Juan Gonzalo Castaño Valderrama and Cesar Eduardo Loza Arenas, signaling continuity in oversight as it manages its extensive energy and infrastructure portfolio.

The most recent analyst rating on (EC) stock is a Sell with a $12.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ecopetrol SA stock, see the EC Stock Forecast page.

Ecopetrol Lifts 2025 Proven Reserves, Achieves 121% Replacement Despite Lower Brent Prices
Feb 20, 2026

Ecopetrol S.A., the Colombian state-linked energy major, reported on February 19, 2026, that its proven oil, condensate, and natural gas reserves (1P) reached 1,944 billion barrels of oil equivalent at the end of 2025, a 2.7% increase year on year. The group said 99% of these reserves were certified by three independent firms under U.S. SEC standards, underscoring transparency and technical rigor in its reserve accounting.

Despite a 13.9% drop in the 2025 Brent reference price to USD 68.64 per barrel versus 2024, the company posted reserve additions of 300 mmboe and achieved a reserves replacement ratio of 121%. Management highlighted that enhanced recovery projects in fields such as Castilla, Chichimene, and Akacias, improved operational efficiency in Rubiales and La Cira–Infantas, and royalty-related contracts with Colombia’s ANH drove the gains.

Ecopetrol noted that the 300 mmboe contribution marks its highest reserves replacement in four years and supports an average reserve life of 7.8 years for the group. The 2025 reserve balance also reflects 140.8 mmboe of revisions, including 100 mmboe tied to ANH contracts, 142.6 mmboe from enhanced recovery, and 16.1 mmboe from extensions and discoveries, against production of 248 mmboe, reinforcing the company’s long-term sustainability and resilience strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (EC) stock is a Sell with a $12.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ecopetrol SA stock, see the EC Stock Forecast page.

Ecopetrol Sets Stricter Proxy Rules Ahead of March 27, 2026 Shareholder Meeting
Feb 20, 2026

Ecopetrol S.A., Colombia’s dominant integrated energy company with extensive operations in hydrocarbons, refining, petrochemicals, gas distribution, and power transmission across the Americas, continues to consolidate its role as a regional infrastructure and energy player. Through its stake in ISA, it also controls key electricity transmission assets, road concessions, and telecommunications businesses in Brazil, Chile, Peru, Bolivia, and Colombia, as well as upstream positions in the United States, Brazil, and Mexico.

On January 19, 2025, Ecopetrol announced a package of governance measures to ensure proper shareholder representation at its Annual General Meeting scheduled for March 27, 2026. The company will tighten proxy validation rules, bar managers and employees from influencing proxy appointments or voting choices, prohibit powers of attorney to individuals linked to management, and assign its Corporate Legal Vice Presidency and General Secretariat to verify that all proxies comply with Colombian regulatory requirements, reinforcing transparency and minority shareholder protections.

The most recent analyst rating on (EC) stock is a Sell with a $12.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ecopetrol SA stock, see the EC Stock Forecast page.

Ecopetrol Calls March 27, 2026 General Shareholders’ Meeting With Electronic Voting and Merger Proposal
Feb 20, 2026

Ecopetrol S.A. has convened its General Shareholders’ Meeting for March 27, 2026, at Corferias in Bogotá, with the session to be held in person and streamed online, and voting expected to be conducted electronically via smart mobile devices. The company is also opening its books for shareholder inspection from March 5, 2026, and has flagged a merger proposal on the agenda which it says will not increase shareholder liability or impair economic rights, while clarifying proxy rules and representation limits for managers and employees in line with Colombian securities regulations.

The most recent analyst rating on (EC) stock is a Sell with a $12.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ecopetrol SA stock, see the EC Stock Forecast page.

Ecopetrol Sets Early March Dates to Present Q4 and Full-Year 2025 Results
Feb 19, 2026

Ecopetrol S.A., Colombia’s largest integrated energy company, has extensive operations across hydrocarbon production, transportation, refining, petrochemicals, gas distribution, and regional power transmission and infrastructure. Through its controlling stake in ISA, it has broadened its footprint into electricity transmission, road concessions, and telecommunications across several Latin American markets.

On February 18, 2026, Ecopetrol announced it will publish its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 financial and operating results after market close on March 4, 2026. The company will follow this with a virtual conference call on March 5, 2026, in Spanish and English, underscoring its engagement with global investors and stakeholders ahead of potentially market-moving disclosures on its recent performance and strategic direction.

The results release and related materials will be made available on Ecopetrol’s website, and investors will be able to submit questions via the webcast platform during the call. This structured communication plan highlights the company’s focus on transparency and accessibility as it manages its role as a key regional energy and infrastructure player.

The most recent analyst rating on (EC) stock is a Sell with a $12.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ecopetrol SA stock, see the EC Stock Forecast page.

Ecopetrol Shareholders Confirm New Board for Remainder of 2025–2029 Term
Feb 6, 2026

On February 5, 2026, Ecopetrol S.A. held an Extraordinary Shareholders’ Meeting at which investors approved the full agenda and elected the company’s Board of Directors for the remainder of the 2025–2029 term, in line with Colombian corporate law. The meeting confirmed Germán Ávila, Colombia’s Minister of Finance, as chair of the assembly, appointed the elections and vote-counting and minutes review committees proposed by shareholders, and ratified a nine-member board slate combining independent and non-independent directors, with all resolutions passing by overwhelming majorities. The decisions consolidate Ecopetrol’s corporate governance structure for the current board term, providing continuity and clarity in oversight at a time when the state-controlled energy group plays a central role in Colombia’s hydrocarbons, energy transmission and infrastructure sectors.

The most recent analyst rating on (EC) stock is a Sell with a $12.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ecopetrol SA stock, see the EC Stock Forecast page.

Ecopetrol Files 2025 Corporate Governance Código País Report with Colombian Regulator
Jan 30, 2026

On January 30, 2026, Ecopetrol S.A. reported that it had submitted its 2025 Corporate Governance Best Practices Implementation Report – known as Código País – to the Financial Superintendence of Colombia. The filing, which was digitally signed by the company’s legal representative, details the governance practices Ecopetrol adopted and applied during 2025 and is available through both the company’s website and the regulator’s platform, underscoring the state-controlled energy group’s emphasis on disclosure standards and regulatory compliance for investors and other stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (EC) stock is a Buy with a $14.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ecopetrol SA stock, see the EC Stock Forecast page.

Ecopetrol Sets Governance Measures for February 5, 2026 Extraordinary Shareholders’ Meeting
Jan 20, 2026

On January 19, 2026, Ecopetrol S.A. announced a series of governance and procedural measures to ensure proper shareholder representation at its Extraordinary Shareholders’ Meeting scheduled for February 5, 2026. The company will formally remind investors of their right to be represented by proxy and detail the legal requirements for valid powers of attorney, empower its Corporate Legal Vice Presidency and General Secretariat to review and verify these proxies, and instruct meeting personnel to reject any that do not meet legal standards or fail to clearly identify the designated representative. Ecopetrol is also reinforcing restrictions on the conduct of managers and employees, prohibiting them from influencing shareholders’ choice of proxies, from recommending voting slates or coordinating voting strategies, from acting as attorneys-in-fact for others’ shares except in limited legal cases, and from receiving proxy appointments if they are directly or indirectly connected to company management. These steps underscore the company’s effort to align with Colombian regulatory guidance, bolster corporate governance practices, and provide greater transparency and safeguards for minority shareholders ahead of a key extraordinary meeting.

The most recent analyst rating on (EC) stock is a Buy with a $13.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ecopetrol SA stock, see the EC Stock Forecast page.

Ecopetrol Calls Extraordinary Shareholders’ Meeting to Elect Directors for 2025–2029 Term
Jan 20, 2026

On January 20, 2026, Ecopetrol S.A. announced that its chief executive officer has called an extraordinary General Shareholders’ Meeting for February 5, 2026, at the company’s main offices in Bogotá, primarily to elect directors to serve for the remainder of the 2025–2029 term. The in‑person meeting, which will also be streamed online, will feature electronic voting supported by shareholders’ mobile devices, with alternative mechanisms for those lacking the required technology, and is governed by Colombian commercial and securities-market rules that limit proxy representation by company managers and employees. Detailed logistical and compliance guidelines were provided, including rules for proxy documentation, limits on the number of proxies per representative, health-related attendance recommendations, and restrictions on publicity materials, underscoring Ecopetrol’s focus on orderly corporate governance and broad, regulated shareholder participation in a key board election that could influence the company’s strategic direction for the remainder of the current board period.

The most recent analyst rating on (EC) stock is a Buy with a $13.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ecopetrol SA stock, see the EC Stock Forecast page.

Ecopetrol Formalizes Government-Backed Board Slate, Confirms Employee-Elected Director
Jan 20, 2026

On January 19, 2026, Ecopetrol S.A. announced that it has completed the corporate procedures needed to formalize the Colombian government’s slate of candidates for its Board of Directors, confirming the inclusion of Cesar Eduardo Loza Arenas as the employee-elected nominee to occupy the seventh seat. The company said that nominees for the eighth and ninth board seats will be disclosed in subsequent communications, signaling an ongoing refresh of its board composition that reflects both state ownership and employee representation and may shape future strategic oversight and governance for shareholders and other stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (EC) stock is a Buy with a $13.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ecopetrol SA stock, see the EC Stock Forecast page.

Ecopetrol’s Hydrocarbon-Producing Regions Renominate Board Candidate Ricardo Rodriguez Yee
Jan 20, 2026

On January 19, 2026, Ecopetrol S.A. announced that the hydrocarbon-producing departments where it operates have once again nominated Ricardo Rodriguez Yee as their representative candidate to the company’s Board of Directors. His nomination will be presented to shareholders as the eighth director on the slate proposed by the Government of Colombia, underscoring the continued influence of regional hydrocarbon-producing areas in Ecopetrol’s governance structure and reinforcing the link between the company’s board composition, government oversight and the interests of key producing regions.

The most recent analyst rating on (EC) stock is a Buy with a $13.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ecopetrol SA stock, see the EC Stock Forecast page.

Ecopetrol Minority Shareholders Reaffirm Board Nominee on Government Slate
Jan 20, 2026

On January 19, 2026, Ecopetrol S.A. announced that minority shareholders have again nominated Luis Felipe Henao Cardona as their candidate for the company’s Board of Directors, with his name to be submitted for election as the ninth director on the slate proposed by the Government of Colombia. The move underscores the continuing participation of minority investors in Ecopetrol’s governance process and reflects the ongoing balance between state influence and private shareholder representation at one of Latin America’s key integrated energy companies, a dynamic that may shape future strategic decisions and oversight at the group.

The most recent analyst rating on (EC) stock is a Buy with a $13.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ecopetrol SA stock, see the EC Stock Forecast page.

Ecopetrol Employees Elect Board Representative to Government-Backed Slate
Jan 16, 2026

On January 15, 2026, Ecopetrol S.A. announced that its employees elected Cesar Eduardo Loza Arenas as their representative candidate to the company’s Board of Directors, completing the employee-designated seat as the seventh director on the slate of nominees proposed by the Government of Colombia. The appointment, which still requires completion of certain corporate formalities, underscores the company’s governance framework that incorporates employee participation and confirms the government’s continuing central role in shaping Ecopetrol’s board composition, a point of interest for investors monitoring corporate control and strategic direction at Colombia’s flagship energy group.

The most recent analyst rating on (EC) stock is a Hold with a $8.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ecopetrol SA stock, see the EC Stock Forecast page.

Ecopetrol Faces Broad Labor Renegotiations as Unions File Complaints to Revise Collective Agreement
Jan 8, 2026

On January 7, 2026, Ecopetrol S.A. reported that, in addition to the December 24, 2025 complaint filed by Unión Sindical Obrera (USO), multiple labor organizations – including Adeco, Sindispetrol, Asopetrogas, Asteco, Trasine, Asintrahc, Sintramen, Sup, and Utipec – have formally initiated the renegotiation of their respective chapters of the company’s Collective Bargaining Agreement by filing complaints with Colombia’s Ministry of Labor within the legally established timeframe. These moves, made under the framework of the Colombian Labor Code, signal a broad-based round of labor talks that could affect Ecopetrol’s labor relations and cost structure, but the company emphasized its commitment to open, respectful, and constructive dialogue aimed at reaching agreements that support worker well-being, national interests, and the development of sustainable, value-creating solutions.

The most recent analyst rating on (EC) stock is a Hold with a $8.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ecopetrol SA stock, see the EC Stock Forecast page.

Ecopetrol Takes Full Control of Southern Caribbean Offshore Gas Blocks
Dec 29, 2025

On December 22, 2025, Ecopetrol S.A. announced that Colombia’s National Hydrocarbons Agency has formalized the transfer of Shell EP Offshore Venture’s 50% stake and operatorship in the COL 5, Purple Angel and Fuerte Sur offshore contracts in the southern Caribbean, giving Ecopetrol full ownership of the rights, interests and obligations in these exploration and production blocks. The company said it will continue advancing the development of existing gas discoveries in these areas—such as Kronos-1, Purple Angel, Gorgon-1, Gorgon-2 ST2 and Glaucus-1—by moving toward the project development phase, including planning an onshore gas evacuation route, integrating with the national gas transportation system and shaping the necessary regulatory and commercialization frameworks. Ecopetrol will also assess whether to retain 100% of the assets or bring in a strategic partner to add technical expertise and financial support, a decision that could influence capital allocation and risk-sharing for these offshore projects. The move underscores Ecopetrol’s strategy to bolster Colombia’s future natural gas supply and reinforces its positioning of gas as a key complementary fuel in the country’s broader energy transition efforts.

The most recent analyst rating on (EC) stock is a Hold with a $8.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ecopetrol SA stock, see the EC Stock Forecast page.

Ecopetrol Enters Early Collective Bargaining Talks with Unión Sindical Obrera Ahead of 2025 Contract Expiry
Dec 29, 2025

On December 19, 2025, Ecopetrol S.A. began an early collective bargaining process with the Unión Sindical Obrera (USO), after the union filed a complaint before Colombia’s Ministry of Labor against the current collective bargaining agreement that runs from January 1, 2023, to December 31, 2025. The filing, made within the legally required 60-day window before the agreement’s expiration, triggers a formal process under the Colombian Labor Code in which Ecopetrol must first await administrative steps by the Ministry before USO presents its list of demands that will frame the negotiations; the company has indicated it will report further developments as required, signaling a potentially significant negotiation phase for labor relations and operational stability ahead of the agreement’s expiry.

The most recent analyst rating on (EC) stock is a Hold with a $8.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ecopetrol SA stock, see the EC Stock Forecast page.

Ecopetrol Downgraded to BB by Fitch After Colombia Sovereign Cut
Dec 23, 2025

On December 22, 2025, Ecopetrol S.A. reported that Fitch Ratings downgraded the company’s global credit rating from BB+ to BB with a Stable Outlook, mirroring the cut to Colombia’s sovereign rating made on December 16 and underscoring the tight linkage between the state-controlled oil major and the country’s credit profile. Despite the downgrade at the global level, Fitch kept Ecopetrol’s Standalone Credit Profile at ‘bbb-’ within investment grade, recognizing its strategic importance as Colombia’s dominant hydrocarbon producer, which may help reassure investors and other stakeholders about the underlying strength of its operations even as the sovereign-driven rating action could influence its future funding costs and market perception.

The most recent analyst rating on (EC) stock is a Hold with a $8.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ecopetrol SA stock, see the EC Stock Forecast page.

Ecopetrol Clarifies Status of Potential Brazil Acquisition Amid Preliminary Market Assessments
Dec 22, 2025

On December 22, 2025, Ecopetrol S.A. issued a clarification in response to media reports about a potential acquisition in Brazil, stating that it is routinely evaluating inorganic growth opportunities as part of its diversification strategy and is currently assessing alternatives in the Brazilian market where it already operates. The company emphasized that these reviews remain at a preliminary stage, with no binding commitments or obligations in place that would qualify as material information, and pledged to inform the market in line with regulatory requirements should any decision on a specific transaction arise, signaling a cautious but active stance on regional expansion that stakeholders should watch closely for future developments.

The most recent analyst rating on (EC) stock is a Hold with a $8.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ecopetrol SA stock, see the EC Stock Forecast page.

Ecopetrol Announces New Board Committee Composition Following Director Resignations
Dec 12, 2025

On December 10 and 11, 2025, Ecopetrol S.A.’s board of directors approved a new composition for its supporting committees following the resignations of directors Mónica de Greiff Lindo and Guillermo García Realpe. The changes reflect a strategic reorganization aimed at strengthening the company’s governance and operational efficiency. The company expressed gratitude to the departing directors for their significant contributions, emphasizing their roles in advancing Ecopetrol’s strategic initiatives and commitment to Colombia’s development.

The most recent analyst rating on (EC) stock is a Hold with a $8.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ecopetrol SA stock, see the EC Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Mar 07, 2026