Ecopetrol (EC)
NYSE:EC
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Ecopetrol SA
(NYSE:EC)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$15.50
▲(14.39% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/20/26
The score is driven primarily by fundamentally solid but weakening financial trends (negative revenue growth, margin/return compression, and above-equity leverage). Technicals are moderately positive with price above key averages and healthy (not overbought) momentum, while valuation is supportive due to the low P/E and high dividend yield. Earnings-call guidance and Q1 profitability/cash flow were encouraging, though tempered by FX, tax, and execution/regulatory risks.
Positive Factors
Integrated market position
Ecopetrol’s integrated footprint across upstream, midstream and downstream secures steady internal feedstocks, tariff and refining income streams. This vertical integration smooths cash flow cyclicality, preserves margins from capture of value across the chain and sustains market share in Colombia and regional operations.
Negative Factors
Negative revenue trend
Declining revenue and compressed margins indicate weaker top-line momentum and reduced pricing or volume power. If sustained, this undermines return metrics and free cash flow growth, forcing tougher tradeoffs between dividends, reinvestment and debt reduction over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Integrated market position
Ecopetrol’s integrated footprint across upstream, midstream and downstream secures steady internal feedstocks, tariff and refining income streams. This vertical integration smooths cash flow cyclicality, preserves margins from capture of value across the chain and sustains market share in Colombia and regional operations.
Read all positive factors
Ecopetrol SA Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
EBITDA by Segment
Highlights earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization for each business segment, providing insight into the profitability and operational efficiency of different areas within the company.
Highlights earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization for each business segment, providing insight into the profitability and operational efficiency of different areas within the company.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyEcopetrol SA (EC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$28.69B
Dividend Yield18.88%
Average Volume (3M)2.85M
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.8
Beta (1Y)>-0.01
Revenue Growth-6.14%
EPS Growth-33.61%
CountryUS
Employees18,903
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Integrated
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4238.20
Shares Outstanding2,055,834,700
10 Day Avg. Volume3,075,112
30 Day Avg. Volume2,845,705
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.23
Price to Book (P/B)0.93
Price to Sales (P/S)0.70
P/FCF Ratio4.79
Enterprise Value/Market Cap6.98K
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.72
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.28
Enterprise Value/Ebitda4.74
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$12.63Price Target Upside-6.83% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)7,585
Revenue Forecast (FY)$10.00T>
Ecopetrol SA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ecopetrol S.A. operates as an integrated energy company. The company operates through four segments: Exploration and Production; Transport and Logistics; Refining, Petrochemical and Biofuels; and Electric Power Transmission and Toll Roads Concessi...
How the Company Makes Money
Ecopetrol makes money primarily by selling hydrocarbons and refined products through an integrated model spanning upstream, midstream, and downstream operations. Upstream revenue comes from producing crude oil and natural gas and selling those vol...
Ecopetrol SA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 12, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a largely positive operational and financial performance: strong EBITDA (COP 13.5T) and a 47% margin, refinery results and throughput gains, production stability with maintained annual guidance, meaningful cost reductions, healthy liquidity and free cash flow, and clear progress on strategic transactions and gas/import solutions. Offsetting these positives were notable external pressures — FX appreciation, wider crude differentials, higher freight/logistics costs, tax headwinds (including a material wealth tax), some short-term production declines (gas and international), and transactional/regulatory uncertainties. On balance, the highlights (profitability, cash generation, operational gains, portfolio and gas initiatives) outweigh the lowlights, though the company still faces meaningful macro and tax challenges that temper the outlook.Positive Updates
Strong Group Financial Results
Revenues of COP 28.6 trillion, EBITDA of COP 13.5 trillion, and net income of COP 2.9 trillion in Q1 2026; EBITDA margin expanded to 47%, and free cash flow was positive at COP 4.0 trillion.
Negative Updates
Pressure from Exchange Rate and Differentials
Appreciation of the Colombian peso pressured revenues and widened crude differentials vs prior year, negatively impacting dollar-denominated metrics and contributing to YoY revenue/margin pressures despite strong domestic operations.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Group Financial Results
Revenues of COP 28.6 trillion, EBITDA of COP 13.5 trillion, and net income of COP 2.9 trillion in Q1 2026; EBITDA margin expanded to 47%, and free cash flow was positive at COP 4.0 trillion.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The call reiterated 2026 guidance: full‑year production target of 730–740 kboe/d (Q1 at 725 kboe/d; domestic crude 527 kb/d), a total investment plan of $5.4–$6.7bn (≈23% executed to date; Q1 organic CapEx $1.4bn; 73% of Q1 CapEx to growth, 27% to maintenance; by line ~64% hydrocarbons / 28% transmission & roads / 8% energy transition) and a base‑case Brent assumption of ~$83/bbl (planning range discussed $83–$93/bbl) with an FX planning band of COP 3,600–4,000; management flagged FX sensitivity of ~COP 1.6 trillion impact on EBITDA and ~COP 0.8 trillion on net income per COP 100 FX move, pro‑forma leverage around 2.1–2.3x debt/EBITDA (1.6x excluding ISA), no incremental debt expected to finance Ecopetrol S.A.’s organic CapEx, and an expectation to execute toward the upper end of the CapEx range while maintaining liquidity (Q1 EBITDA COP 13.5 trillion; EBITDA margin 47%; net income COP 2.9 trillion; cash ~COP 14 trillion; free cash flow COP 4 trillion; FEPC balance COP 4.2 trillion).Ecopetrol SA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
66
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
64
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 10.00T> | 10.00T> | 10.00T> | 10.00T> | 10.00T> | 91.88T |
| Gross Profit | 37.91T | 35.05T | 46.85T | 55.01T | 70.15T | 36.30T |
| EBITDA | 42.24T | 39.29T | 55.75T | 59.83T | 73.81T | 40.72T |
| Net Income | 8.73T | 8.40T | 13.84T | 21.06T | 31.60T | 15.65T |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 10.00T> | 10.00T> | 10.00T> | 10.00T> | 10.00T> | 10.00T> |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 12.91T | 12.52T | 14.91T | 14.20T | 16.56T | 16.18T |
| Total Debt | 10.00T> | 10.00T> | 10.00T> | 10.00T> | 10.00T> | 95.06T |
| Total Liabilities | 10.00T> | 10.00T> | 10.00T> | 10.00T> | 10.00T> | 10.00T> |
| Stockholders Equity | 79.92T | 83.67T | 83.70T | 78.39T | 91.03T | 68.49T |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 16.85T | 16.19T | 32.54T | 5.77T | 26.69T | 14.62T |
| Operating Cash Flow | 29.24T | 25.30T | 42.83T | 14.42T | 36.28T | 21.22T |
| Investing Cash Flow | -16.26T | -18.56T | -26.01T | -20.71T | -22.45T | -22.64T |
| Financing Cash Flow | -12.77T | -8.54T | -16.37T | 5.76T | -14.70T | 11.10T |
Ecopetrol SA Technical Analysis
Positive
13.55
Price Trends
13.59
Positive
12.53
Positive
10.73
Positive
Market Momentum
0.10
Negative
55.31
Neutral
74.83
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 13.55 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.49, below the 50-day MA of 13.59, and above the 200-day MA of 10.73, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.10 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.31 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.83 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for EC.
Ecopetrol SA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $121.78B | 5.38 | 27.02% | 14.10% | 3.35% | 133.76% | |
69 Neutral | $7.72B | 9.01 | 20.37% | 2.57% | 26.21% | 1517.69% | |
68 Neutral | $28.69B | 9.85 | 10.79% | 18.88% | -6.14% | -33.61% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
65 Neutral | $80.78B | 16.84 | 5.25% | 5.41% | -3.06% | 9.20% | |
64 Neutral | $99.81B | 8.48 | 13.33% | 7.43% | -1.94% | -30.62% | |
64 Neutral | $19.81B | 11.21 | -2.87% | ― | -4.12% | -132.96% |
* Energy Sector Average
EC
Ecopetrol SA
13.85
5.65
68.86%
E
Eni SPA
54.39
26.19
92.88%
NFG
National Fuel Gas Company
80.92
0.48
0.60%
PBR
Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras
19.90
8.96
81.90%
EQNR
Equinor ASA
38.81
15.94
69.68%
YPF
YPF Sociedad Anonima
47.99
11.47
31.41%
Ecopetrol SA Corporate Events
Ecopetrol Advances 49% Acquisition of JK1 and JK2 Wind Projects in La Guajira
May 20, 2026
On May 19, 2026, Ecopetrol announced that it has met the conditions to acquire a 49% interest in the JK1 and JK2 wind projects, part of the Jemeiwaa Ka’I wind cluster in La Guajira, under its investment agreement with AES Colombia. The two p...
Ecopetrol Publishes First-Quarter 2026 Regulatory Report
May 15, 2026
Ecopetrol S.A., Colombia’s largest integrated energy company, has a dominant role in national oil and gas production, transportation and refining, alongside strong positions in petrochemicals, gas distribution and regional power transmission...
Ecopetrol Delivers Strong 1Q26 Margins Amid Volatile Oil Market and Advances Energy Transition
May 13, 2026
Ecopetrol reported first-quarter 2026 results on May 12, 2026, showing revenues of COP 28.6 trillion, EBITDA of COP 13.5 trillion with a 47% margin, and net income of COP 2.9 trillion in a volatile oil market shaped by the Middle East conflict sin...
Ecopetrol Board Member Juan Gonzalo Castaño Resigns, Board Confirms Quorum Intact
May 13, 2026
On May 12, 2026, Ecopetrol S.A. announced that Juan Gonzalo Castaño Valderrama resigned as a non-independent member of its Board of Directors for personal and professional reasons, effective at the close of that day’s board meeting. The...
Ecopetrol Discloses Formal Charges Against President Ricardo Roa Over 2022 Campaign Spending
May 12, 2026
On May 11, 2026, Ecopetrol reported that Colombia’s General Prosecutor’s Office has formally charged its president, Ricardo Roa, over alleged breaches of spending limits in the 2022 presidential campaign. The charges, presented before ...
Ecopetrol Formalizes Bylaws Amendment Approved by Shareholders
May 11, 2026
Ecopetrol S.A. has formalized an amendment to its Bylaws by registering the changes with the Bogotá Chamber of Commerce, completing a process that began with approval by the General Shareholders’ Meeting on November 11, 2025 and was doc...
Ecopetrol Files 2025 Form 20-F with U.S. SEC, Bolstering Market Transparency
May 1, 2026
On April 30, 2026, Ecopetrol S.A. announced it had filed its Annual Report on Form 20-F for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. This filing fulfills the company’s U.S. reporting obligati...
Ecopetrol Sets May Dates for First-Quarter 2026 Earnings Release and Call
Apr 29, 2026
On April 28, 2026, Ecopetrol S.A. announced it would publish its financial and operational results for the first quarter of 2026 on May 12, 2026, after markets close. The Colombian energy group also scheduled a virtual earnings conference call for...
Moody’s Cuts Ecopetrol’s Global Rating to Ba2, Keeps Stand‑Alone Profile Intact
Apr 24, 2026
On April 23, 2026, Moody’s Ratings downgraded Ecopetrol’s global credit rating from Ba1 to Ba2 and shifted its outlook from stable to negative, citing a weaker perceived likelihood and predictability of support from the Colombian gover...
Ecopetrol Moves for Control Stake in Brazil’s Brava Energia With Premium Tender Offer
Apr 23, 2026
On April 23, 2026, Ecopetrol S.A. signed a share purchase agreement with key shareholders of Brazil’s Brava Energia S.A. to acquire 120,813,490 shares, or about 26% of Brava’s capital, marking a major expansion of its Brazilian upstrea...
Ecopetrol Releases 2025 Year-End Periodic Report and Compliance Certification
Apr 22, 2026
On April 21, 2026, Ecopetrol S.A. announced it has published its Year-End Periodic Report for fiscal year 2025 as part of its 2025 Integrated Management Report, in line with Colombian regulatory requirements. The report, covering the year ended De...
Ecopetrol Downgraded to BB- as S&P Follows Colombia Sovereign Cut
Apr 9, 2026
On April 8, 2026, SP Global Ratings cut Ecopetrol’s global credit rating to BB- from BB with a stable outlook, mirroring a downgrade of Colombia’s sovereign rating driven by persistent fiscal imbalances and economic vulnerabilities. SP...
Ecopetrol Names Acting President as CEO Takes Leave Starting Late May
Apr 7, 2026
Ecopetrol’s board of directors, meeting on April 6, 2026, approved an unpaid leave of absence requested by company president Ricardo Roa Barragán, alongside a vacation period running from April 7 to May 27, 2026. The unpaid leave is sch...
Ecopetrol Secures USD 1.25 Billion Loan Authorization for Debt Management Strategy
Apr 3, 2026
On April 1, 2026, Colombia’s Ministry of Finance and Public Credit authorized Ecopetrol S.A. to execute a new external loan of up to USD 1.25 billion as part of its broader debt management strategy. The five-year facility, provided by Banco ...
Ecopetrol Secures COP 1.6 Trillion FEPC Settlement with Colombian Government
Apr 2, 2026
On March 31, 2026, Colombia’s Hydrocarbons Directorate ordered payment of COP 1.6 trillion from the Fuel Price Stabilization Fund for the first quarter of 2025, allocating COP 1.2 trillion to Ecopetrol and COP 0.4 trillion to Refinería ...
Ecopetrol Shareholders Approve 2025 Results, COP 121 Dividend and Solar Merger at March 27 Meeting
Mar 30, 2026
Ecopetrol S.A. held its Ordinary General Shareholders’ Meeting on March 27, 2026 in Bogotá, where investors approved the 2025 Integrated Management Report, the audited individual and consolidated financial statements, and the Board̵...
Ecopetrol Board Affirms Compliance and Governance Amid Calls for CEO’s Removal
Mar 25, 2026
Ecopetrol S.A.’s board of directors met on March 24, 2026, to address mounting concerns around President Ricardo Roa Barragán, including a union demand for his removal, minority shareholder requests tied to formal charges brought by Col...
Ecopetrol Board Probes President After Influence-Peddling Charges in Colombia
Mar 12, 2026
Ecopetrol S.A., Colombia’s largest integrated energy company, plays a central role in the country’s oil and gas industry, handling a majority share of hydrocarbon production, transportation and refining while also leading in petrochemi...
Ecopetrol Posts Solid 2025 Earnings, Boosts Reserves and Surpasses Energy Transition Targets
Mar 5, 2026
Ecopetrol S.A. has reported its audited full-year 2025 results, showing that in a year of lower Brent prices and market volatility it maintained production at 745,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, hit record refining throughputs of 430,000 ba...
Ecopetrol Publishes 2025 Social and Environmental Disclosure Chapter
Mar 5, 2026
On March 4, 2025, Ecopetrol S.A. announced it had published its 2025 chapter detailing practices, policies, processes and indicators on social and environmental matters, including climate, in line with Colombian financial regulator requirements. T...
Ecopetrol Proposes 2025 Dividend and COP 21 Trillion Sustainability Reserve
Mar 4, 2026
Ecopetrol S.A., Colombia’s dominant hydrocarbon producer, operates most of the country’s transportation, logistics, and refining systems and holds leading positions in petrochemicals and gas distribution. Through its controlling stake ...
Ecopetrol Revamps Board Leadership and Committees After February Governance Session
Feb 20, 2026
In a board meeting held on February 18 and 19, 2026, Ecopetrol S.A. elected Ángela María Robledo Gómez as chairwoman and Hildebrando Vélez Galeano as vice chairman of its board of directors. The company also reconstituted the m...
Ecopetrol Lifts 2025 Proven Reserves, Achieves 121% Replacement Despite Lower Brent Prices
Feb 20, 2026
Ecopetrol S.A., the Colombian state-linked energy major, reported on February 19, 2026, that its proven oil, condensate, and natural gas reserves (1P) reached 1,944 billion barrels of oil equivalent at the end of 2025, a 2.7% increase year on year...
Ecopetrol Sets Stricter Proxy Rules Ahead of March 27, 2026 Shareholder Meeting
Feb 20, 2026
Ecopetrol S.A., Colombia’s dominant integrated energy company with extensive operations in hydrocarbons, refining, petrochemicals, gas distribution, and power transmission across the Americas, continues to consolidate its role as a regional ...
Ecopetrol Calls March 27, 2026 General Shareholders’ Meeting With Electronic Voting and Merger Proposal
Feb 20, 2026
Ecopetrol S.A. has convened its General Shareholders’ Meeting for March 27, 2026, at Corferias in Bogotá, with the session to be held in person and streamed online, and voting expected to be conducted electronically via smart mobile dev...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.