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Ecopetrol (EC)
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Ecopetrol SA (EC) AI Stock Analysis

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EC

Ecopetrol SA

(NYSE:EC)

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Outperform 71 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$9.50
▲(8.70% Upside)
Ecopetrol's strong valuation, characterized by a low P/E ratio and high dividend yield, is a significant positive factor. Financial performance is stable, but challenges such as high leverage and declining free cash flow need addressing. The earnings call provided a mixed sentiment with operational successes overshadowed by external financial pressures. Technical indicators suggest a bearish trend, which slightly dampens the overall score.
Positive Factors
Renewable Energy Expansion
Ecopetrol's commitment to renewable energy expansion supports its long-term sustainability strategy, reducing dependency on fossil fuels and aligning with global decarbonization trends.
Operational Efficiency
Ecopetrol's operational efficiencies enhance its cost management and profitability, providing a competitive edge in the volatile oil market and supporting long-term financial stability.
Gas Commercialization
Securing long-term gas contracts strengthens Ecopetrol's market position and revenue stability, diversifying its energy portfolio and reducing exposure to oil price volatility.
Negative Factors
Declining Revenue Growth
A decline in revenue growth indicates potential challenges in market demand or pricing power, which could impact Ecopetrol's ability to sustain long-term financial performance.
High Leverage
High leverage can strain Ecopetrol's financial flexibility, increasing risk during economic downturns or periods of low oil prices, potentially impacting future growth investments.
Declining Free Cash Flow
A significant decline in free cash flow could limit Ecopetrol's ability to fund new projects, pay down debt, or return capital to shareholders, affecting long-term growth prospects.

Ecopetrol SA (EC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Ecopetrol SA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionEcopetrol SA (EC) is Colombia's largest oil company and one of the main players in the Latin American oil and gas industry. Established in 1951, the company is involved in the exploration, production, refining, and transportation of hydrocarbons. Ecopetrol operates across the entire oil and gas value chain, including upstream activities such as oil and gas exploration and production, midstream operations including transportation and storage, and downstream activities such as refining and marketing of petroleum products. The company also has a growing portfolio in renewable energy initiatives, reflecting its commitment to sustainability.
How the Company Makes MoneyEcopetrol generates revenue primarily through the sale of crude oil and natural gas, which are its core products. The company leverages its extensive network of production and refining facilities to convert raw hydrocarbons into various petroleum products, which are then sold in both domestic and international markets. Key revenue streams include the sale of refined products like gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuel, along with natural gas sales to industrial and residential customers. Additionally, Ecopetrol benefits from transportation fees charged for the use of its pipelines and infrastructure. The company has established significant partnerships with international oil companies, which enhance its exploration capabilities and technological advancements. Fluctuations in global oil prices, regulatory changes, and investment in renewable energy projects also play a critical role in shaping its financial performance.

Ecopetrol SA Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
EBITDA by Segment
EBITDA by Segment
Highlights earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization for each business segment, providing insight into the profitability and operational efficiency of different areas within the company.
Chart InsightsEcopetrol's Midstream and Upstream segments show resilience with recent upticks, while Downstream faces volatility due to refining challenges and external price pressures. The earnings call highlights robust production and reserve additions, yet EBITDA is impacted by external factors and refining setbacks. Strategic investments in energy transition and sustainability are promising, but refining margin declines and operational disruptions pose risks. Investors should watch for continued progress in energy transition and efficiency gains as potential growth drivers.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Ecopetrol SA Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 12, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Ecopetrol's earnings call highlighted significant operational achievements in production, renewable energy expansion, and gas commercialization. However, these were offset by the negative impact of declining crude prices, midstream volumetric challenges, and financial adjustments affecting ISA. The sentiment is mixed, with strong operational progress but financial pressures due to external market conditions.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Semester Production
Achieved a semester production of 751,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, the highest level in a decade, driven by strong performance in Colombia and the Permian Basin in the United States.
Commercial Viability of Lorito Discovery
Declared the commercial viability of the Lorito discovery in Meta, the most significant in the past 10 years, with approximately 250 million barrels of oil in recoverable resources.
Expansion of Renewable Energy Portfolio
Expected to exceed the goal of 900 megawatts in renewable energy by 2025, with significant acquisitions made during the quarter.
Gas Segment Achievements
Completed the first long-term commercialization of natural gas in Colombia, securing national supply through 5-year contracts.
Downstream Segment Recovery
Achieved a 53% increase in EBITDA compared to the same period in 2024, supported by improved operational availability and throughput.
Negative Updates
Impact of Declining Crude Prices
Brent crude price fell by 22% compared to the second quarter of 2024, significantly impacting revenue and profits.
Midstream Volumetric Decline
Transported volumes decreased by 6% compared to the second quarter of 2024 due to external events such as blockades and theft.
Operational Challenges in Refining
Refining throughput decreased by 5% compared to the first half of 2024 due to increased maintenance activities and external events.
ISA Financial Impact
Adjustments to the financial components of assets in Brazil resulted in a reduction in EBITDA of approximately COP 0.6 trillion.
Net Income Decline
Recorded a net income of COP 4.9 trillion, representing a year-over-year decline of COP 2.5 trillion, mainly due to external market factors.
Company Guidance
During the second quarter of 2025, Ecopetrol provided guidance on various operational and financial metrics. The company achieved a production level of 751,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, marking the highest output in a decade. This increase was attributed to strong performances in Colombian fields such as Caño Sur and CPO-09, and the Permian Basin in the United States. Ecopetrol also declared the commercial viability of the Lorito discovery in Meta, Colombia, and began drilling the Papayuela well in the Caribbean offshore to enhance the country's gas potential. The midstream segment handled over 1 million barrels per day, supported by operational solutions to mitigate external disruptions. The Pozos Colorados terminal expansion was completed, including the country's largest tank with a capacity of 320,000 barrels. In the downstream segment, throughput reached 405,000 barrels per day, demonstrating full operational recovery post-maintenance, and the company expects improved margins in the latter half of the year. Ecopetrol completed the first long-term commercialization of significant natural gas in Colombia, securing national supply through five-year contracts. The company also signed an agreement to acquire Windpeshi, its first wind project, to advance decarbonization and reduce operational energy costs. Despite a 22% decline in Brent crude prices compared to the previous year, Ecopetrol achieved efficiencies totaling COP 2.2 trillion, surpassing the semester's target by 27%. The company's investment commitments amounted to USD 2.5 billion this year, aligned with its long-term strategy, and it maintained its production target for 2025. Ecopetrol completed full dividend payments to shareholders, delivering a 10% return, and made 80% progress in its optimization plan to reduce costs and expenses.

Ecopetrol SA Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Ecopetrol SA demonstrates strong profitability and efficient equity utilization, but faces challenges with declining revenue growth and high leverage. The company's cash flow generation remains solid, although the recent decline in free cash flow warrants attention. Overall, Ecopetrol maintains a stable financial position with room for improvement in cost management and leverage reduction.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Ecopetrol SA shows strong profitability with a consistent EBIT margin of around 29.36% in TTM, despite a slight decline in revenue growth. The gross profit margin has decreased from 46.12% in 2024 to 36.92% in TTM, indicating some pressure on cost management. Net profit margin remains healthy at 10.53% in TTM, although it has slightly decreased from previous years.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The company's debt-to-equity ratio is relatively high at 1.43, indicating significant leverage, which could pose a risk if not managed carefully. However, the return on equity is strong at 18.43% in TTM, reflecting efficient use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is stable, suggesting a balanced approach to asset financing.
Cash Flow
65
Positive
Ecopetrol SA's cash flow from operations is robust, with an operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.10 in TTM, indicating good cash generation relative to net income. However, free cash flow has declined significantly by 32.55% in TTM, which could impact future investments and debt repayments.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue10.00T>10.00T>10.00T>10.00T>91.88T50.22T
Gross Profit41.73T46.85T55.01T70.15T36.30T12.66T
EBITDA39.72T55.75T59.83T73.81T40.72T17.36T
Net Income11.39T13.84T21.06T31.60T15.65T1.59T
Balance Sheet
Total Assets10.00T>10.00T>10.00T>10.00T>10.00T>10.00T>
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments14.34T14.91T14.20T16.56T16.18T7.28T
Total Debt10.00T>10.00T>10.00T>10.00T>95.06T46.73T
Total Liabilities10.00T>10.00T>10.00T>10.00T>10.00T>84.19T
Stockholders Equity79.22T83.70T78.39T91.03T68.49T49.90T
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow22.28T32.54T5.77T26.69T14.62T2.10T
Operating Cash Flow32.00T42.83T14.42T36.28T21.22T6.77T
Investing Cash Flow-26.99T-26.01T-20.71T-22.45T-22.64T-8.34T
Financing Cash Flow-8.60T-16.37T5.76T-14.70T11.10T-262.99B

Ecopetrol SA Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price8.74
Price Trends
50DMA
9.09
Negative
100DMA
9.01
Negative
200DMA
8.79
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.10
Positive
RSI
43.17
Neutral
STOCH
13.57
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 8.74 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.03, below the 50-day MA of 9.09, and below the 200-day MA of 8.79, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.10 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.17 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 13.57 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for EC.

Ecopetrol SA Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
$52.56B19.984.83%5.13%-6.31%-33.87%
73
Outperform
$72.90B5.5119.48%14.22%-13.68%-13.96%
71
Outperform
$18.07B6.2715.94%20.45%-7.51%-29.04%
71
Outperform
$59.31B7.6719.22%8.93%1.19%-7.87%
67
Neutral
$7.81B32.368.00%2.55%19.59%-21.86%
65
Neutral
$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
64
Neutral
$10.43B7.9210.88%4.28%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
EC
Ecopetrol SA
8.75
1.53
21.19%
E
Eni SPA
35.43
6.37
21.92%
NFG
National Fuel Gas Company
82.30
21.04
34.35%
PBR
Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras
11.73
-0.22
-1.84%
EQNR
Equinor ASA
23.97
1.45
6.44%
YPF
YPF Sociedad Anonima
24.75
0.45
1.85%

Ecopetrol SA Corporate Events

Ecopetrol Announces Board Chair Resignation
Oct 16, 2025

On October 14, 2025, Dr. Mónica De Greiff Lindo announced her resignation as an independent member and Chair of Ecopetrol’s board of directors, effective immediately. The company plans to notify its majority shareholder and initiate procedures to appoint her replacement, with Vice Chair Dr. Angela María Robledo Gómez stepping in as interim Chair. Ecopetrol expressed gratitude for Dr. De Greiff Lindo’s contributions during her three-year tenure.

Ecopetrol Enters Confidentiality Agreement with Canacol Energy
Sep 8, 2025

Ecopetrol S.A. announced that it has entered into a confidentiality agreement with Canadian gas producer Canacol Energy in late August 2025. This agreement aims to facilitate information exchange under legal safeguards without creating binding obligations or commitments for future actions. The company reassures stakeholders that any significant activities requiring public disclosure will be communicated through official channels, ensuring transparency in its operations.

Ecopetrol Announces Leadership Changes in Board of Directors
Aug 20, 2025

On August 19, 2025, Ecopetrol S.A. announced that Dr. Guillermo García Realpe resigned as Chairman of the Board for personal reasons but will remain a board member and Chair of the Compensation, Nomination, and Culture Committee. Dr. Mónica de Greiff Lindo was appointed as the new Chairwoman and Dr. Angela María Robledo Gómez as Vice Chairwoman, effective August 20, 2025. This leadership transition is expected to maintain stability and continuity in the company’s strategic direction, potentially impacting its operations and stakeholder relations positively.

Ecopetrol Reports Strong First Half 2025 Performance Amid Market Challenges
Aug 13, 2025

In the first half of 2025, Ecopetrol S.A. demonstrated resilience amidst challenging market conditions, achieving a net income of COP 4.9 trillion and an EBITDA of COP 24.4 trillion with a 40% margin. The company maintained strong operational performance through market diversification, cost optimization, and strategic investments, including the acquisition of a 45% stake in CPO-09 and the Windpeshi wind project. Ecopetrol’s efforts in the hydrocarbons sector led to increased production, while its energy transition initiatives marked significant progress with the commercialization of natural gas and the development of renewable energy projects. The company’s strategic focus on operational growth and financial stability aims to maximize long-term value for shareholders.

Ecopetrol S.A. Schedules Q2 2025 Earnings Release and Conference Call
Jul 30, 2025

Ecopetrol S.A. announced that it will release its financial and operating results for the second quarter of 2025 after market close on August 12, 2025. A virtual conference call to discuss the results will be held on August 13, 2025, with options to participate in Spanish or English. This announcement is significant as it provides stakeholders with insights into the company’s financial health and operational performance, potentially impacting its market positioning and investor relations.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 21, 2025