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Ecopetrol SA
(NYSE:EC)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$18.50
▲(15.55% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/10/26
The score is driven primarily by solid but not peak-level financial performance: healthy margins and a return to revenue growth are tempered by meaningful leverage and weaker recent cash conversion/declining free cash flow. Technicals add support with an uptrend across moving averages and positive momentum. Valuation is a positive (low P/E and moderate yield), while the earnings call was constructive on operational/financial momentum but flagged material risks (FEPC/tax and disruption-related volume recovery).
Positive Factors
Integrated value chain
Diversification across upstream, refining, pipelines and logistics reduces dependence on any single segment and lets Ecopetrol capture value through the chain. Strong refining and transport performance demonstrates the durability of its integrated operating model.
Negative Factors
Meaningful leverage
Debt remains above equity and leaves Ecopetrol more exposed to commodity downturns, higher financing costs and acquisition-related funding needs. Although leverage improved from prior years, it still constrains financial flexibility when earnings weaken.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Integrated value chain
Diversification across upstream, refining, pipelines and logistics reduces dependence on any single segment and lets Ecopetrol capture value through the chain. Strong refining and transport performance demonstrates the durability of its integrated operating model.
Read all positive factors
Ecopetrol SA Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
EBITDA by Segment
Highlights earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization for each business segment, providing insight into the profitability and operational efficiency of different areas within the company.
Highlights earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization for each business segment, providing insight into the profitability and operational efficiency of different areas within the company.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyEcopetrol SA (EC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$37.09B
Dividend Yield3.63%
Average Volume (3M)2.83M
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.0
Beta (1Y)0.02
Revenue Growth6.48%
EPS Growth18.12%
CountryUS
Employees28,197
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Integrated
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)6092.00
Shares Outstanding2,055,834,700
10 Day Avg. Volume2,222,885
30 Day Avg. Volume2,826,746
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.24
Price to Book (P/B)0.93
Price to Sales (P/S)0.70
P/FCF Ratio4.79
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$15.13Price Target Upside-5.53% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)7,230.92
Revenue Forecast (FY)$10.00T>
Ecopetrol SA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ecopetrol SA engages in the exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas. It operates through the following segments: Exploration and Production, Transportation and Logistics, and Refining and Petrochemicals. The Explorati...
How the Company Makes Money
Ecopetrol makes money mainly by selling hydrocarbons and refined products across an integrated value chain. In upstream (exploration and production), it generates revenue from the sale of crude oil, natural gas, and associated liquids; earnings ar...
Ecopetrol SA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 03, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a strongly positive operational and financial picture driven by exceptional commodity and refining market conditions: record refining throughput and margins, substantial YoY increases in revenue, EBITDA and net income, solid cash generation and disciplined capital deployment. These positives were tempered by operational disruptions (notably the Meta blockade and power issues) that depressed production, material tax and FEPC-related receivable uncertainty, and some cost pressures in transportation and contingency preparedness (El Niño). On balance the favorable results, cash generation, discoveries, and execution of strategic projects outweigh the challenges.Positive Updates
Strong Quarterly Financial Performance
Q2 2026 revenue COP 4.2 trillion (+35% YoY), EBITDA COP 17.7 trillion (+59% YoY) and net income COP 6.1 trillion (+235% YoY). Group EBITDA margin of 44% (≈+6 percentage points YoY). Highest quarterly net income since Q4 2022.
Negative Updates
Production Disruptions and Deferred Volumes
Production impacted by environmental and electrical disruptions and a 76-day blockade in Meta that deferred ~23,000 barrels per day. Reported Q2 production 706,000 boe/d and H1 average 715,000 boe/d; company target 730k–740k bpd for full year—actions underway to recover volumes.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Quarterly Financial Performance
Q2 2026 revenue COP 4.2 trillion (+35% YoY), EBITDA COP 17.7 trillion (+59% YoY) and net income COP 6.1 trillion (+235% YoY). Group EBITDA margin of 44% (≈+6 percentage points YoY). Highest quarterly net income since Q4 2022.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Ecopetrol reiterated a 2026 operating outlook focused on recovering volumes and sustaining refining and midstream momentum: H1 production averaged ~715,000 boe/d with management maintaining a full‑year target of 730,000–740,000 boe/d and actions to recover ~23,000 bpd deferred production (including a 7‑well Permian campaign expected to add ~4,000–5,000 bpd from late‑2026), record refining throughput of 439,000 bpd in Q2 (+6% YoY) with a Q2 refining gross margin of USD 29.8/bbl (Cartagena USD 31.6/bbl) and midstream transport >1.1 million bpd (+3.8% YoY), while exploration activity totaled 8 wells H1 with two discoveries (Copa Sul, Sandia‑1) and Copa Sul testing at up to 35 MMcf/d. On the financial side the company emphasized disciplined execution — USD 2.9 billion of investments executed YTD (71% Colombia, 22% Brazil, 7% U.S.; 63% hydrocarbons/29% transmission/8% energy transition), Q2 revenue COP 4.2 trillion, Q2 EBITDA COP 17.7 trillion (margin 44%) and Q2 net income COP 6.1 trillion (H1 net income COP 9 trillion), H1 operating cash flow COP 14.1 trillion, free cash flow COP 6 trillion, consolidated cash COP 11.3 trillion, CapEx outflow COP 8.4 trillion, dividend payments COP 6 trillion, gross debt/EBITDA ~2x (1.3x ex‑ISA), efficiency gains COP 2.6 trillion YTD, and a Fuel Price Stabilization Fund receivable of COP 8 trillion as of June (management expects year‑end FEPC between COP 8–12 trillion using a 2026 Brent scenario of ~USD 84–90/bbl and TRM ~3,200–3,500, and projects a 2027 FEPC accrual of COP 1–3 trillion under Brent ≈USD 72 and TRM 3,200–3,600).Ecopetrol SA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
71
Positive
Balance Sheet
56
Neutral
Cash Flow
59
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 10.00T> | 10.00T> | 10.00T> | 10.00T> | 10.00T> | 91.88T |
| Gross Profit | 44.29T | 35.05T | 46.85T | 55.01T | 70.15T | 36.30T |
| EBITDA | 45.77T | 39.95T | 55.75T | 59.83T | 73.81T | 40.72T |
| Net Income | 12.52T | 8.40T | 13.84T | 21.06T | 31.60T | 15.65T |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 10.00T> | 10.00T> | 10.00T> | 10.00T> | 10.00T> | 10.00T> |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 8.46T | 12.52T | 14.91T | 14.20T | 16.56T | 16.18T |
| Total Debt | 10.00T> | 10.00T> | 10.00T> | 10.00T> | 10.00T> | 95.06T |
| Total Liabilities | 10.00T> | 10.00T> | 10.00T> | 10.00T> | 10.00T> | 10.00T> |
| Stockholders Equity | 82.16T | 83.67T | 83.70T | 78.39T | 91.03T | 68.49T |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 14.06T | 16.19T | 32.54T | 5.77T | 26.69T | 14.62T |
| Operating Cash Flow | 26.06T | 25.30T | 42.83T | 14.42T | 36.28T | 21.22T |
| Investing Cash Flow | -15.16T | -18.56T | -26.01T | -20.71T | -22.45T | -22.64T |
| Financing Cash Flow | -10.39T | -8.54T | -16.37T | 5.76T | -14.70T | 11.10T |
Ecopetrol SA Technical Analysis
Positive
16.01
Price Trends
16.06
Positive
14.97
Positive
12.91
Positive
Market Momentum
0.49
Negative
66.64
Neutral
89.40
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 16.01 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.81, below the 50-day MA of 16.06, and above the 200-day MA of 12.91, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.49 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.64 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.40 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for EC.
Ecopetrol SA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $7.92B | 11.53 | 18.72% | 2.62% | 12.53% | 167.56% | |
72 Outperform | $112.00B | 6.15 | 27.02% | 6.18% | 20.82% | 86.33% | |
71 Outperform | $81.98B | 13.52 | 10.93% | 4.66% | 4.18% | 139.58% | |
70 Outperform | $37.09B | 8.95 | 15.34% | 4.06% | 6.48% | 18.12% | |
66 Neutral | $101.07B | 11.57 | 21.61% | 3.72% | 6.81% | 21.88% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
64 Neutral | $20.99B | -49.25 | -3.62% | ― | -26.93% | -130.82% |
* Energy Sector Average
EC
Ecopetrol SA
17.89
9.39
110.54%
E
Eni SPA
55.97
21.84
63.99%
NFG
National Fuel Gas Company
83.58
-1.30
-1.53%
PBR
Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras
18.54
7.38
66.17%
EQNR
Equinor ASA
42.03
18.52
78.80%
YPF
YPF Sociedad Anonima
50.06
18.65
59.38%
Ecopetrol SA Corporate Events
Ecopetrol Moves to Second-Call Bondholder Meetings After Merger Vote Falls Short
Aug 19, 2026
On August 18, 2026, Ecopetrol reported the outcome of first-call meetings for holders of its domestic public debt bonds issued in 2010 and 2013. The meetings, convened by bondholder representatives in Bogotá after a notice published on August...
Ecopetrol Secures 51% Control of Brazil’s Brava Energia to Boost Regional Growth
Aug 18, 2026
On August 17, 2026, Ecopetrol S.A. announced it had completed the acquisition of a controlling 51% stake in Brazil’s Brava Energia S.A. through its subsidiary Ecopetrol Investimentos do Brasil Ltda. The transaction, totaling about US$1.2 bil...
Ecopetrol Calls August 18 Bondholder Meetings to Approve Solar Merger
Aug 6, 2026
Ecopetrol S.A. has called meetings of holders of its domestic CPI-linked public debt bonds issued in 2010 and 2013 to be held on August 18, 2026, in Bogotá and via Colombia’s central securities depository platform. These meetings follow...
Ecopetrol Secures Controlling Stake Path in Brazil’s Brava Energia After August 5 Auction
Aug 5, 2026
Ecopetrol S.A. disclosed that on August 5, 2026 its Brazilian subsidiary, Ecopetrol Investimentos do Brasil Ltda., successfully completed an auction for a voluntary tender offer on Brazil’s B3 exchange to acquire roughly 25% of Brava Energia...
Ecopetrol Posts Record Refining Results and Strong First-Half 2026 Earnings
Aug 4, 2026
In its first-half 2026 report filed on August 3, 2026, Ecopetrol S.A. highlighted the strength of its integrated oil, gas, refining, transport and trading model amid favorable market conditions. The group posted record refining throughput and marg...
Ecopetrol Confronts July Cybersecurity Breach After Data From 15 Group Companies Is Published
Jul 28, 2026
Ecopetrol S.A., Colombia’s dominant integrated energy company, spans upstream oil and gas production, transport and refining infrastructure, petrochemicals, gas distribution, and regional power transmission and road concessions through its m...
Ecopetrol Announces Leadership Changes in Energy Transition and Talent Units
Jul 24, 2026
On July 23, 2026, Ecopetrol S.A. announced senior management changes following voluntary departures in two strategic areas focused on energy transition and human capital. Executive Vice President of Transition Energies Bayron Arley Triana Arias wi...
Ecopetrol Reshapes Board Leadership After July Resignations
Jul 24, 2026
On July 23, 2026, Ecopetrol S.A., Colombia’s state-controlled integrated energy major, reported governance changes triggered by the resignations of independent director Ángela María Robledo Gómez and non-independent director T...
Ecopetrol Announces Leadership Transition as President Ricardo Roa Steps Down
Jul 24, 2026
Ecopetrol S.A., the Colombian state-controlled integrated energy company, reported a leadership transition at the top of the group in late July 2026. The board highlighted its strategic focus on energy transition, expansion into renewable energy a...
Ecopetrol Says July Cyber Attack Limited to Data Download, Operations Unaffected
Jul 21, 2026
Ecopetrol S.A., Colombia’s largest integrated energy company and a key operator of national hydrocarbon, refining and transport systems, also controls significant electricity transmission, road concession and telecommunications assets in Lat...
Ecopetrol Resumes Brazil Tender Offer to Acquire Stake in Brava Energia
Jul 21, 2026
On July 20, 2026, Ecopetrol S.A. announced that its Brazilian subsidiary, Ecopetrol Investimentos do Brasil LTDA, had resumed a voluntary tender offer on the B3 Securities Exchange to acquire a controlling equity stake in Brava Energia S.A. The re...
Ecopetrol Wins CVM Appeal, Tender Offer in Brazil Cleared to Proceed
Jul 17, 2026
On July 15, 2026, Ecopetrol Investimentos do Brasil, a controlled subsidiary of Ecopetrol S.A., received a decision from Brazil’s securities regulator CVM ruling in favor of the company’s administrative appeal regarding a public tender...
Ecopetrol Secures COP 1 Trillion FEPC Payment from Colombian Government
Jul 1, 2026
On June 30, 2026, Ecopetrol Group received recognition and payment from the Colombian National Government for the full balance of its Fuel Price Stabilization Fund (FEPC) accounts receivable for the second quarter of 2025, totaling about COP 1 tri...
S&P Affirms Ecopetrol’s BB- Rating and Stable Outlook Amid Stronger Liquidity
Jun 17, 2026
On June 16, 2026, SP Global Ratings affirmed Ecopetrol’s global issuer credit rating at BB- with a stable outlook and maintained its stand-alone credit profile at bb+. The decision underscores the company’s ongoing importance to Colomb...
Ecopetrol Temporarily Halts Brazil Tender Offer After CVM Requests Changes
Jun 16, 2026
Ecopetrol S.A., Colombia’s largest integrated energy company, controls a major share of the country’s oil and gas production, transport and refining assets, and is a key player in petrochemicals and gas distribution. Through its majori...
Ecopetrol Secures Six-Year Labor Deal With Oil Workers Union in Colombia
Jun 15, 2026
On June 13, 2026, Ecopetrol S.A. reached a final six‑year collective bargaining agreement with the majority Oil Workers Union (USO), effective retroactively from January 1, 2026. The company also concluded 66 final agreements with other unio...
Ecopetrol Board Postpones CEO’s Unpaid Leave and Confirms Acting Chief Executive
May 28, 2026
Ecopetrol S.A., the Colombian integrated energy group, announced that its board of directors met on May 27, 2026 and approved a change to the previously disclosed leave schedule of CEO Ricardo Roa Barragán. The board postponed the start of hi...
Ecopetrol Launches Premium Tender Offer to Build Controlling Stake in Brazil’s Brava Energia
May 26, 2026
On May 25, 2026, Ecopetrol S.A., Colombia’s largest integrated energy company with extensive hydrocarbon, power transmission, and infrastructure interests across the Americas, detailed its growing international footprint, including operation...
Ecopetrol Advances 49% Acquisition of JK1 and JK2 Wind Projects in La Guajira
May 20, 2026
On May 19, 2026, Ecopetrol announced that it has met the conditions to acquire a 49% interest in the JK1 and JK2 wind projects, part of the Jemeiwaa Ka’I wind cluster in La Guajira, under its investment agreement with AES Colombia. The two p...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.