Ecopetrol SA (EC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $18.86B
• Dividend Yield: 19.43%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.83M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 6.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.26
• Revenue Growth: -7.51%
• EPS Growth: -29.04%
• Country: US
• Employees: 18,903
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Integrated
• EPS (TTM): 0.25
• Shares Outstanding: 2,055,834,700
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,151,843
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,828,447
• PEG Ratio: -0.19
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.86
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.54
• P/FCF Ratio: 2.20
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.74
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: <0.01
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: <0.01
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: <0.01
• 1Y Price Target: $8.50
• Price Target Upside: -7.71% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: $10.00 ▲(8.58% Upside)

Ecopetrol's overall stock score reflects a strong valuation with an attractive P/E ratio and high dividend yield, making it appealing to value and income investors. Financial performance is stable but challenged by high leverage and declining free cash flow. The earnings call provides a mixed sentiment, with operational successes offset by external financial pressures. Technical indicators suggest a neutral to slightly positive outlook, with potential for a rebound from oversold conditions.

Positive Factors

Renewable Energy Expansion

Ecopetrol's commitment to renewable energy expansion supports its long-term sustainability strategy, reducing dependency on fossil fuels and aligning with global decarbonization trends.

Operational Efficiency

Ecopetrol's operational efficiencies enhance its cost management and profitability, providing a competitive edge in the volatile oil market and supporting long-term financial stability.

Gas Commercialization

Securing long-term gas contracts strengthens Ecopetrol's market position and revenue stability, diversifying its energy portfolio and reducing exposure to oil price volatility.

Negative Factors

Declining Revenue Growth

A decline in revenue growth indicates potential challenges in market demand or pricing power, which could impact Ecopetrol's ability to sustain long-term financial performance.

High Leverage

High leverage can strain Ecopetrol's financial flexibility, increasing risk during economic downturns or periods of low oil prices, potentially impacting future growth investments.

Declining Free Cash Flow

A significant decline in free cash flow could limit Ecopetrol's ability to fund new projects, pay down debt, or return capital to shareholders, affecting long-term growth prospects.

Ecopetrol SA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ecopetrol S.A. operates as an integrated energy company. The company operates through four segments: Exploration and Production; Transport and Logistics; Refining, Petrochemical and Biofuels; and Electric Power Transmission and Toll Roads Concessions. It engages in the exploration and production of oil and gas; transportation of crude oil, motor fuels, fuel oil, and other refined products, including diesel, jet, and biofuels; processing and refining crude oil; distribution of natural gas and LPG; sale of refined and petrochemical products; supplying of electric power transmission services; design, development, construction, operation, and maintenance of road and energy infrastructure projects; and supplying of information technology and telecommunications services. As of December 31, 2021, the company had approximately 9,127 kilometers of crude oil and multi-purpose pipelines. It also produces and commercializes polypropylene resins and compounds, and masterbatches; and offers industrial service sales to customers and specialized management services. It has operations in Colombia, the United States, Asia, Central America and the Caribbean, Europe, South America, and internationally. The company was formerly known as Empresa Colombiana de Petróleos and changed its name to Ecopetrol S.A. in June 2003. Ecopetrol S.A. was incorporated in 1948 and is based in Bogotá, Colombia.

How the Company Makes Money

Ecopetrol generates revenue primarily through the sale of crude oil and natural gas, which are its core products. The company leverages its extensive network of production and refining facilities to convert raw hydrocarbons into various petroleum products, which are then sold in both domestic and international markets. Key revenue streams include the sale of refined products like gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuel, along with natural gas sales to industrial and residential customers. Additionally, Ecopetrol benefits from transportation fees charged for the use of its pipelines and infrastructure. The company has established significant partnerships with international oil companies, which enhance its exploration capabilities and technological advancements. Fluctuations in global oil prices, regulatory changes, and investment in renewable energy projects also play a critical role in shaping its financial performance.

Ecopetrol SA Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Ecopetrol SA demonstrates strong profitability and efficient equity utilization, but faces challenges with declining revenue growth and high leverage. The company's cash flow generation remains solid, although the recent decline in free cash flow warrants attention. Overall, Ecopetrol maintains a stable financial position with room for improvement in cost management and leverage reduction.

Income Statement

Ecopetrol SA shows strong profitability with a consistent EBIT margin of around 29.36% in TTM, despite a slight decline in revenue growth. The gross profit margin has decreased from 46.12% in 2024 to 36.92% in TTM, indicating some pressure on cost management. Net profit margin remains healthy at 10.53% in TTM, although it has slightly decreased from previous years.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio is relatively high at 1.43, indicating significant leverage, which could pose a risk if not managed carefully. However, the return on equity is strong at 18.43% in TTM, reflecting efficient use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is stable, suggesting a balanced approach to asset financing.

Cash Flow

Ecopetrol SA's cash flow from operations is robust, with an operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.10 in TTM, indicating good cash generation relative to net income. However, free cash flow has declined significantly by 32.55% in TTM, which could impact future investments and debt repayments.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	10.00T>	10.00T>	10.00T>	10.00T>	91.88T	50.22T
Gross Profit	41.73T	46.85T	55.01T	70.15T	36.30T	12.66T
EBITDA	39.72T	55.75T	59.83T	73.81T	40.72T	17.36T
Net Income	11.39T	13.84T	21.06T	31.60T	15.65T	1.59T
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	10.00T>	10.00T>	10.00T>	10.00T>	10.00T>	10.00T>
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	14.34T	14.91T	14.20T	16.56T	16.18T	7.28T
Total Debt	10.00T>	10.00T>	10.00T>	10.00T>	95.06T	46.73T
Total Liabilities	10.00T>	10.00T>	10.00T>	10.00T>	10.00T>	84.19T
Stockholders Equity	79.22T	83.70T	78.39T	91.03T	68.49T	49.90T
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	22.28T	32.54T	5.77T	26.69T	14.62T	2.10T
Operating Cash Flow	32.00T	42.83T	14.42T	36.28T	21.22T	6.77T
Investing Cash Flow	-26.99T	-26.01T	-20.71T	-22.45T	-22.64T	-8.34T
Financing Cash Flow	-8.60T	-16.37T	5.76T	-14.70T	11.10T	-262.99B

Ecopetrol SA Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 9.21
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 9.21 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.24, above the 50-day MA of 8.98, and above the 200-day MA of 8.64, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.07 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.58 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 43.37 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for EC.

Ecopetrol SA Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
E	78 Outperform	$53.55B	20.07	4.99%	5.11%	-6.31%	-33.87%
NFG	76 Outperform	$8.36B	34.57	8.18%	2.27%	19.59%	-21.86%
EC	73 Outperform	$18.86B	6.39	15.94%	19.43%	-7.51%	-29.04%
PBR	73 Outperform	$78.37B	5.97	18.86%	13.21%	-13.68%	-13.96%
EQNR	73 Outperform	$62.94B	8.06	19.62%	8.71%	1.19%	-7.87%
YPF	64 Neutral	$10.22B	7.56	9116.50%	―	4.28%	―
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%

Ecopetrol SA Corporate Events

Ecopetrol Enters Confidentiality Agreement with Canacol Energy

Ecopetrol S.A. announced that it has entered into a confidentiality agreement with Canadian gas producer Canacol Energy in late August 2025. This agreement aims to facilitate information exchange under legal safeguards without creating binding obligations or commitments for future actions. The company reassures stakeholders that any significant activities requiring public disclosure will be communicated through official channels, ensuring transparency in its operations.

Ecopetrol Announces Leadership Changes in Board of Directors

On August 19, 2025, Ecopetrol S.A. announced that Dr. Guillermo García Realpe resigned as Chairman of the Board for personal reasons but will remain a board member and Chair of the Compensation, Nomination, and Culture Committee. Dr. Mónica de Greiff Lindo was appointed as the new Chairwoman and Dr. Angela María Robledo Gómez as Vice Chairwoman, effective August 20, 2025. This leadership transition is expected to maintain stability and continuity in the company’s strategic direction, potentially impacting its operations and stakeholder relations positively.

Ecopetrol Reports Strong First Half 2025 Performance Amid Market Challenges

In the first half of 2025, Ecopetrol S.A. demonstrated resilience amidst challenging market conditions, achieving a net income of COP 4.9 trillion and an EBITDA of COP 24.4 trillion with a 40% margin. The company maintained strong operational performance through market diversification, cost optimization, and strategic investments, including the acquisition of a 45% stake in CPO-09 and the Windpeshi wind project. Ecopetrol’s efforts in the hydrocarbons sector led to increased production, while its energy transition initiatives marked significant progress with the commercialization of natural gas and the development of renewable energy projects. The company’s strategic focus on operational growth and financial stability aims to maximize long-term value for shareholders.

Ecopetrol S.A. Schedules Q2 2025 Earnings Release and Conference Call

Ecopetrol S.A. announced that it will release its financial and operating results for the second quarter of 2025 after market close on August 12, 2025. A virtual conference call to discuss the results will be held on August 13, 2025, with options to participate in Spanish or English. This announcement is significant as it provides stakeholders with insights into the company’s financial health and operational performance, potentially impacting its market positioning and investor relations.

Ecopetrol Acquires Windpeshi Project to Boost Renewable Energy Portfolio

Ecopetrol S.A. has completed the acquisition of Wind Autogeneración S.A.S., the owner of the Windpeshi renewable energy wind project in La Guajira, Colombia. Approved by Ecopetrol’s Board in December 2024, the acquisition aligns with the company’s energy transition strategy, marking its first non-conventional renewable energy project. The Windpeshi project, with a capacity of 205 MW, will contribute significantly to Ecopetrol’s energy demand and decarbonization efforts, reducing CO2 emissions by approximately 4.8 million tons. Ecopetrol plans to restart construction by the end of 2025, aiming for operational status before 2028, and will engage with local Wayuu communities to ensure successful project development.

Ecopetrol Challenges DIAN’s VAT Adjustment on Diesel Imports

On June 3, 2025, Ecopetrol S.A. was notified by the Colombian Tax and Customs Authority (DIAN) of a proposed adjustment and penalty related to VAT on diesel imports from 2022 to 2024, totaling COP 1.2 trillion plus interest. Ecopetrol formally opposed this adjustment on July 1, 2025, highlighting differing legal interpretations. Despite ongoing VAT payments at a 19% rate since January 2025, Ecopetrol maintains the right to challenge DIAN’s interpretation and remains committed to fulfilling its tax obligations.

Ecopetrol S.A. Amends Bond Issuance Program for Sustainability

On July 1, 2025, Ecopetrol S.A. announced that the Financial Superintendency of Colombia authorized an amendment to its Local Public Bond and Commercial Paper Issuance and Placement Program. This amendment, effective from June 27, 2025, includes the issuance of bonds linked to sustainable performance and other specific purposes, aligning with Ecopetrol’s decarbonization and energy transition strategy. The update expands capital market alternatives and allows for potential future issuances up to COP 2.1 trillion, impacting the company’s financial strategy and market positioning.

Ecopetrol Challenges Tax Authority’s Customs Assessment

On May 29, 2025, Ecopetrol’s subsidiary, Refinería de Cartagena S.A.S., was notified by the Colombian Tax Authority to correct customs import declarations for gasoline, leading to a claimed debt of approximately COP 1.0 trillion plus interest. The Refinery has filed motions for reconsideration against these assessments, highlighting ongoing regulatory interpretation differences with the Tax Authority. Despite making VAT payments on imports since January 2025, Ecopetrol and the Refinery maintain their right to challenge the Tax Authority’s interpretation.