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Ecopetrol SA (EC)
NYSE:EC

Ecopetrol SA (EC) AI Stock Analysis

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EC

Ecopetrol SA

(NYSE:EC)

Rating:83Outperform
Price Target:
$11.50
▲(25.41%Upside)
Ecopetrol's strong technical indicators and attractive valuation drive its high overall score, offering potential for growth. Solid financial performance supports the outlook, though challenges like high leverage and market volatility must be managed.
Positive Factors
Exploration and Expansion
New oil exploration bidding rounds likely under a new administration in Colombia, which could expand reserves and production life.
Growth Opportunities
Ecopetrol is considering buying SierraCol Energy Ltd., which could boost its reserves and offer growth potential in the near term.
Valuation
The analyst recommends upgrading Ecopetrol to Buy/High Risk due to considerable room for valuation rerating.
Negative Factors
Financial Performance
Ecopetrol is dealing with higher lifting cost trends and lower cash generation compared to peers, which negatively affects its financial position.
Legal Challenges
Ecopetrol is facing a US$2.2bn tax claim from Colombia’s tax authority, which adds significant uncertainty and risk to the company’s investment thesis.
Macroeconomic Environment
Analyst maintains an Underperform rating due to a challenging macro environment for the oil and gas industry in Colombia and lower production estimates for the upstream business.

Ecopetrol SA (EC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Ecopetrol SA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionEcopetrol SA is Colombia's largest integrated oil company and a significant player in the global oil and gas industry. The company operates across various sectors including exploration, production, refining, transportation, and commercialization of crude oil and natural gas. Ecopetrol also has a presence in petrochemicals and biofuels, contributing to its diverse product and service portfolio.
How the Company Makes MoneyEcopetrol SA generates revenue primarily through the exploration, production, and sale of crude oil and natural gas. Its upstream operations, which involve the extraction of oil and gas, are a significant revenue driver. The company refines crude oil into various petroleum products, such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, which are sold domestically and internationally. Additionally, Ecopetrol earns income from its transportation network, which includes pipelines and other infrastructure for moving oil and gas products. Partnerships with other oil and gas companies for joint exploration and production ventures also contribute to its earnings. The company's diversification into petrochemicals and biofuels provides additional revenue streams, leveraging its expertise in hydrocarbon processing.

Ecopetrol SA Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
EBITDA by Segment
EBITDA by Segment
Highlights earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization for each business segment, providing insight into the profitability and operational efficiency of different areas within the company.
Chart InsightsEcopetrol's Midstream and Upstream segments show resilience with recent upticks, while Downstream faces volatility due to refining challenges and external price pressures. The earnings call highlights robust production and reserve additions, yet EBITDA is impacted by external factors and refining setbacks. Strategic investments in energy transition and sustainability are promising, but refining margin declines and operational disruptions pose risks. Investors should watch for continued progress in energy transition and efficiency gains as potential growth drivers.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Ecopetrol SA Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 16.37%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Ecopetrol demonstrated strong operational performance and progress in strategic energy initiatives, despite facing challenges such as a decrease in refining margin, tax disputes with DIAN, and the impact of lower Brent prices on financial results.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Production Performance
Ecopetrol achieved a production of 745,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, marking the highest crude oil production in Colombia in the last five years.
Significant Progress in Gas Initiatives
Ecopetrol signed a regasification services contract on Colombia's Pacific Coast with a project potential of 60 Giga BTUD, expected to begin operations in 2026.
Efficiency and Cost Management
The energy efficiency program generated savings of nearly COP 23 billion, with a total of 21 petajoules achieved since 2018.
ISA's Strong Contribution
ISA exhibited comprehensive growth with an increase of 9% in revenues and 8% in EBITDA year-over-year, contributing 13% of Ecopetrol's revenues and 18% of EBITDA.
Negative Updates
Decrease in Refining Margin
The refining margin decreased by $3.19 per barrel compared to the same period last year, primarily due to scheduled maintenances and operational events.
Challenges with DIAN's Tax Ruling
Ecopetrol faces a potential tax penalty and interest totaling COP 9.4 trillion related to VAT payments for the period 2022 to 2024.
Impact of Lower Brent Prices
Ecopetrol's financial results were impacted by declining Brent prices, affecting net income and requiring strategic financial adjustments.
Company Guidance
During Ecopetrol's earnings conference call for the first quarter of 2025, the company provided guidance amidst a backdrop of global uncertainty and volatile Brent prices. Ecopetrol reported an average production of 745,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, aligning with annual goals despite local challenges. The refining margin decreased by $3.9 per barrel compared to the previous year, primarily due to product differentials and scheduled maintenance. The company highlighted significant progress in natural gas projects, including a regasification services contract on Colombia’s Pacific Coast, expected to begin operations in the second quarter of 2026, with a capacity of 60 giga BTUD. Additionally, Ecopetrol aims to achieve 900 megawatts of self-generation capacity in renewable energy. The financial report showed stability with an EBITDA of COP 13.3 trillion and a margin of 42%, despite lower Brent prices. The investment execution reached nearly 20%, with a focus on optimizing costs and reinforcing operational efficiency. The company remains committed to maintaining a strong financial position while navigating the energy transition and addressing challenges in the market.

Ecopetrol SA Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Ecopetrol SA demonstrates solid operational and cash flow metrics, highlighting operational efficiency and cash generation capabilities. However, high leverage and fluctuating revenue growth present potential risks. Continued focus on managing profitability and leverage is crucial for future stability.
Income Statement
78
Positive
Ecopetrol SA shows a strong gross profit margin and consistent EBITDA margins reflecting operational efficiency. However, recent revenue growth has been volatile, indicating potential market challenges. Net profit margin has decreased significantly, highlighting pressure on profitability.
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
The company maintains a solid equity base with an adequate equity ratio, but the debt-to-equity ratio is relatively high, suggesting considerable leverage. Return on equity has been strong, but recent declines in net income could impact future returns.
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
Ecopetrol SA's cash flow position is robust, with a substantial increase in operating cash flow. The free cash flow to net income ratio is favorable, indicating good conversion of income to cash. However, fluctuations in free cash flow growth indicate variability in capital expenditures.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue10.00T>10.00T>10.00T>91.74T50.03T
Gross Profit61.49T55.92T70.02T36.16T12.47T
EBITDA52.79T59.83T71.12T38.98T17.36T
Net Income14.94T19.06T31.60T15.65T3.37T
Balance Sheet
Total Assets10.00T>10.00T>10.00T>10.00T>10.00T>
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments13.00T14.20T16.56T16.18T7.28T
Total Debt10.00T>10.00T>10.00T>95.06T46.73T
Total Liabilities10.00T>10.00T>10.00T>10.00T>83.60T
Stockholders Equity79.85T75.71T91.03T71.73T52.09T
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow24.20T-4.29T14.36T9.24T-1.93T
Operating Cash Flow45.13T19.80T36.23T22.54T9.19T
Investing Cash Flow-22.03T-20.02T-18.09T-20.52T-8.53T
Financing Cash Flow-22.69T-354.61B-18.93T6.96T-2.63T

Ecopetrol SA Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price9.17
Price Trends
50DMA
8.76
Positive
100DMA
8.84
Positive
200DMA
8.18
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.09
Positive
RSI
52.30
Neutral
STOCH
27.87
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 9.17 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.26, above the 50-day MA of 8.76, and above the 200-day MA of 8.18, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.09 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.30 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 27.87 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for EC.

Ecopetrol SA Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
ECEC
83
Outperform
$18.71B5.5618.64%68.05%-2.26%-20.04%
PBPBR
75
Outperform
$79.74B9.9311.25%25.78%-10.84%-61.73%
EE
73
Outperform
$50.13B18.384.78%3.38%-2.17%-25.00%
73
Outperform
$64.49B8.0918.28%5.71%3.96%-1.69%
YPYPF
72
Outperform
$12.69B7.4915.54%8.58%
BPBP
65
Neutral
$80.49B186.20-1.87%6.14%-7.70%-113.83%
64
Neutral
6.20B16.102.07%7.11%33.60%18.24%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
EC
Ecopetrol SA
9.17
-0.95
-9.39%
BP
BP
30.93
-3.50
-10.17%
E
Eni SPA
32.79
3.37
11.45%
PBR
Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras
13.06
-0.10
-0.76%
EQNR
Equinor ASA
25.69
0.12
0.47%
YPF
YPF Sociedad Anonima
32.28
11.73
57.08%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 14, 2025