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Ecopetrol SA (EC)
NYSE:EC

Ecopetrol SA (EC) AI Stock Analysis

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EC

Ecopetrol SA

(NYSE:EC)

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Outperform 74 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$12.00
▲(37.30% Upside)
Ecopetrol's overall stock score is driven by strong technical indicators and attractive valuation, despite financial challenges and high leverage. The positive sentiment from the earnings call further supports the stock's potential, although caution is advised due to overbought technical signals.

Ecopetrol SA (EC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Ecopetrol SA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionEcopetrol SA (EC) is the largest petroleum company in Colombia and one of the principal oil and gas companies in Latin America. The company operates in various sectors, including exploration and production of hydrocarbons, refining, transportation, and the sale of petroleum products. Ecopetrol's core products include crude oil, natural gas, refined products such as gasoline and diesel, and petrochemical products. The company also engages in the provision of integrated services in the oil and gas industry, contributing significantly to Colombia's energy landscape and economy.
How the Company Makes MoneyEcopetrol generates revenue primarily through the exploration and production of oil and natural gas, which constitutes its largest revenue stream. The company sells its crude oil and natural gas on both domestic and international markets, pricing influenced by global oil prices. Additionally, revenue is derived from refining operations where crude oil is processed into various refined products, which are then sold to consumers and businesses. The company also earns income from transportation services, as it operates an extensive network of pipelines that facilitate the movement of hydrocarbons. Significant partnerships with international oil companies for joint ventures in exploration and production further enhance its revenue potential. Factors such as fluctuations in global oil prices, production levels, and operational efficiency play a crucial role in determining the company's earnings.

Ecopetrol SA Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 14, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a strong operational and financial performance with significant achievements in sustainability and efficiency. However, challenges such as currency fluctuations and political risks were noted. Overall, the highlights outweigh the lowlights, indicating a positive outlook.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Operational Performance
Ecopetrol reported robust operational performance across all business segments, maintaining an average production of 751,000 barrels per day and achieving a 42% growth in net income.
Strategic Milestones in Transportation
The company achieved an average throughput of 1,098,000 barrels per day, with strategic milestones such as the Covenas-Barrancabermeja connection and LNG infrastructure approvals.
Refining Segment Rebound
Refining operations rebounded, reaching 413,000 barrels per day, and the integrated gross refining margin grew by 22% compared to 2024.
Sustainability and Decarbonization Progress
Ecopetrol reduced greenhouse gas emissions by 379,000 tons, expanded renewable energy capacity to 254 megawatts, and was recognized for sustainability practices.
Financial Stability
The company maintained a strong cash position with COP 14.1 trillion and achieved COP 4.1 trillion in efficiencies, exceeding targets by 40%.
Negative Updates
Exchange Rate Impact
The appreciation of the Colombian peso against the dollar required additional measures to compensate for external factors, affecting financial planning.
Suspension of Operations in Tibu
Operations in the northern part of the Tibu field were suspended, affecting gas production, though it represented less than 1% of total gas production.
Challenges with Political and Compliance Risks
Concerns were raised about potential political and compliance risks, including the impact of possible sanctions and asset divestment discussions.
Company Guidance
During Ecopetrol's earnings conference call for the third quarter of 2025, the company provided detailed guidance on its operational and financial performance metrics. The average production over the past nine months was 751,000 barrels per day, nearing the upper end of the annual guidance range, with significant contributions from the Cano Sur and CPO-09 in Colombia, as well as the Permian Basin in the U.S. Transportation throughput averaged 1,098,000 barrels per day as of September, while refining operations rebounded strongly to 413,000 barrels per day following major maintenance. The company's disciplined cost management strategy led to an 11% increase in EBITDA, achieving a margin of 41%, and a 42% growth in net income. Ecopetrol's investment reached nearly $4.2 billion year-to-date, representing 72% of the annual target. The company also made progress on its sustainability agenda, reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 379,000 tons of Tier 2 equivalent and increasing renewable energy capacity to 234 megawatts. Additionally, Ecopetrol's financial performance was supported by an effective commercial strategy, with cumulative EBITDA reaching COP 36.7 trillion and a cash position of COP 14.1 trillion, ensuring liquidity for the year-end.

Ecopetrol SA Financial Statement Overview

Summary
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Total Revenue
Gross Profit
EBITDA
Net Income
Balance Sheet
Total Assets
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
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Ecopetrol SA Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price8.74
Price Trends
50DMA
9.86
Positive
100DMA
9.49
Positive
200DMA
9.11
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.24
Negative
RSI
66.11
Neutral
STOCH
66.16
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 8.74 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.85, below the 50-day MA of 9.86, and below the 200-day MA of 9.11, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.24 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.11 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.16 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for EC.

Ecopetrol SA Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (―)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
79
Outperform
$55.63B18.555.31%5.41%-3.84%15.75%
77
Outperform
$7.48B13.7417.45%2.57%28.56%593.72%
74
Outperform
$21.73B8.1413.79%18.88%-7.45%-28.80%
69
Neutral
$58.30B11.2513.46%7.43%1.53%-35.81%
69
Neutral
$72.46B5.5118.20%14.10%-11.63%-15.67%
54
Neutral
$13.73B-28.02-4.00%-2.76%56.81%
* Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
EC
Ecopetrol SA
10.75
3.10
40.56%
E
Eni SPA
37.14
10.33
38.53%
NFG
National Fuel Gas Company
78.10
16.69
27.18%
PBR
Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras
11.80
-0.50
-4.09%
EQNR
Equinor ASA
23.71
-0.10
-0.43%
YPF
YPF Sociedad Anonima
33.80
-12.05
-26.28%

Ecopetrol SA Corporate Events

Ecopetrol Takes Full Control of Southern Caribbean Offshore Gas Blocks
Dec 29, 2025

On December 22, 2025, Ecopetrol S.A. announced that Colombia’s National Hydrocarbons Agency has formalized the transfer of Shell EP Offshore Venture’s 50% stake and operatorship in the COL 5, Purple Angel and Fuerte Sur offshore contracts in the southern Caribbean, giving Ecopetrol full ownership of the rights, interests and obligations in these exploration and production blocks. The company said it will continue advancing the development of existing gas discoveries in these areas—such as Kronos-1, Purple Angel, Gorgon-1, Gorgon-2 ST2 and Glaucus-1—by moving toward the project development phase, including planning an onshore gas evacuation route, integrating with the national gas transportation system and shaping the necessary regulatory and commercialization frameworks. Ecopetrol will also assess whether to retain 100% of the assets or bring in a strategic partner to add technical expertise and financial support, a decision that could influence capital allocation and risk-sharing for these offshore projects. The move underscores Ecopetrol’s strategy to bolster Colombia’s future natural gas supply and reinforces its positioning of gas as a key complementary fuel in the country’s broader energy transition efforts.

The most recent analyst rating on (EC) stock is a Hold with a $8.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ecopetrol SA stock, see the EC Stock Forecast page.

Ecopetrol Enters Early Collective Bargaining Talks with Unión Sindical Obrera Ahead of 2025 Contract Expiry
Dec 29, 2025

On December 19, 2025, Ecopetrol S.A. began an early collective bargaining process with the Unión Sindical Obrera (USO), after the union filed a complaint before Colombia’s Ministry of Labor against the current collective bargaining agreement that runs from January 1, 2023, to December 31, 2025. The filing, made within the legally required 60-day window before the agreement’s expiration, triggers a formal process under the Colombian Labor Code in which Ecopetrol must first await administrative steps by the Ministry before USO presents its list of demands that will frame the negotiations; the company has indicated it will report further developments as required, signaling a potentially significant negotiation phase for labor relations and operational stability ahead of the agreement’s expiry.

The most recent analyst rating on (EC) stock is a Hold with a $8.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ecopetrol SA stock, see the EC Stock Forecast page.

Ecopetrol Downgraded to BB by Fitch After Colombia Sovereign Cut
Dec 23, 2025

On December 22, 2025, Ecopetrol S.A. reported that Fitch Ratings downgraded the company’s global credit rating from BB+ to BB with a Stable Outlook, mirroring the cut to Colombia’s sovereign rating made on December 16 and underscoring the tight linkage between the state-controlled oil major and the country’s credit profile. Despite the downgrade at the global level, Fitch kept Ecopetrol’s Standalone Credit Profile at ‘bbb-’ within investment grade, recognizing its strategic importance as Colombia’s dominant hydrocarbon producer, which may help reassure investors and other stakeholders about the underlying strength of its operations even as the sovereign-driven rating action could influence its future funding costs and market perception.

The most recent analyst rating on (EC) stock is a Hold with a $8.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ecopetrol SA stock, see the EC Stock Forecast page.

Ecopetrol Clarifies Status of Potential Brazil Acquisition Amid Preliminary Market Assessments
Dec 22, 2025

On December 22, 2025, Ecopetrol S.A. issued a clarification in response to media reports about a potential acquisition in Brazil, stating that it is routinely evaluating inorganic growth opportunities as part of its diversification strategy and is currently assessing alternatives in the Brazilian market where it already operates. The company emphasized that these reviews remain at a preliminary stage, with no binding commitments or obligations in place that would qualify as material information, and pledged to inform the market in line with regulatory requirements should any decision on a specific transaction arise, signaling a cautious but active stance on regional expansion that stakeholders should watch closely for future developments.

The most recent analyst rating on (EC) stock is a Hold with a $8.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ecopetrol SA stock, see the EC Stock Forecast page.

Ecopetrol Announces New Board Committee Composition Following Director Resignations
Dec 12, 2025

On December 10 and 11, 2025, Ecopetrol S.A.’s board of directors approved a new composition for its supporting committees following the resignations of directors Mónica de Greiff Lindo and Guillermo García Realpe. The changes reflect a strategic reorganization aimed at strengthening the company’s governance and operational efficiency. The company expressed gratitude to the departing directors for their significant contributions, emphasizing their roles in advancing Ecopetrol’s strategic initiatives and commitment to Colombia’s development.

The most recent analyst rating on (EC) stock is a Hold with a $8.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ecopetrol SA stock, see the EC Stock Forecast page.

Ecopetrol Unveils 2026 Investment Plan Amid Market Challenges
Nov 28, 2025

Ecopetrol S.A. announced its 2026 Annual Investment Plan, with a budget between COP 22 and 27 trillion, maintaining investment levels similar to 2025. The plan allocates 70% of the budget to oil production and refining, while 30% is dedicated to energy transition and infrastructure projects. The company aims to produce up to 740 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day and maintain refinery throughput of up to 420 thousand barrels per day. The plan anticipates a challenging market environment with a Brent price of US$60 per barrel and focuses on profitability and liquidity through cost reductions. Ecopetrol plans to drill up to 430 development wells and invest significantly in energy transition projects to enhance clean energy capacity.

The most recent analyst rating on (EC) stock is a Buy with a $12.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ecopetrol SA stock, see the EC Stock Forecast page.

Ecopetrol Announces Leadership Changes Amid Board Resignation
Nov 28, 2025

On November 27, 2025, Ecopetrol S.A.’s board of directors appointed Ángela María Robledo Gómez as Chairwoman and Álvaro Torres Macías as Vice Chairman. Additionally, Dr. Guillermo García Realpe announced his resignation as an Independent Director, effective December 12, 2025, citing personal reasons. The board expressed gratitude for his contributions. These changes reflect ongoing governance adjustments within the company, potentially impacting its strategic direction and stakeholder relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (EC) stock is a Buy with a $12.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ecopetrol SA stock, see the EC Stock Forecast page.

Ecopetrol Secures USD 530 Million Loan for Investment Plans
Nov 24, 2025

On November 21, 2025, Ecopetrol S.A. received authorization from the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit to enter into a loan agreement with international banks for up to USD 530 million. This five-year credit facility, involving Banco Latinoamericano de Comercio Exterior and Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, will support Ecopetrol’s investment plans as part of its 2025 financing strategy. The agreement, governed by New York law, underscores the financial sector’s confidence in Ecopetrol’s strategy despite market volatility, ensuring favorable financing terms for the company.

The most recent analyst rating on (EC) stock is a Buy with a $12.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ecopetrol SA stock, see the EC Stock Forecast page.

Ecopetrol Appoints New Alternate Legal and Commercial Representative
Nov 19, 2025

On November 18, 2025, Ecopetrol S.A. announced the appointment of Mr. Juan Carlos Hurtado Parra as the Alternate Legal and Commercial Representative. This decision by the Board of Directors is part of the company’s ongoing efforts to strengthen its leadership and operational capabilities, potentially impacting its strategic positioning in the energy sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (EC) stock is a Buy with a $12.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ecopetrol SA stock, see the EC Stock Forecast page.

Ecopetrol Acquires Solar Project Portfolio in Colombia
Nov 13, 2025

On November 13, 2025, Ecopetrol S.A. announced the acquisition of a solar project portfolio in Colombia from Statkraft, including six special purpose entities owning solar projects totaling approximately 0.6 GW, for USD157.5 million. This acquisition aligns with Ecopetrol’s 2040 Strategy, enhancing its low-emission energy generation capabilities and supporting its energy transition goals. The transaction strengthens Ecopetrol’s competitive position in renewable energy, complementing its traditional oil and gas operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (EC) stock is a Buy with a $11.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ecopetrol SA stock, see the EC Stock Forecast page.

Ecopetrol S.A. Reports Strong Financial Results and Advances in Energy Transition
Nov 13, 2025

Ecopetrol S.A. reported strong financial performance for the first nine months of 2025, with revenues of COP 90.9 trillion and a net income of COP 7.5 trillion, despite challenges such as crude price volatility and exchange rate fluctuations. The company has made significant strides in enhancing Colombia’s energy security by increasing natural gas output and securing environmental clearance for LNG import activities. Additionally, Ecopetrol has expanded its renewable energy capacity with the launch of La Iguana Solar Farm and improved its workplace environment, achieving a ‘Highly Satisfactory’ ranking from the Great Place to Work Institute.

The most recent analyst rating on (EC) stock is a Buy with a $11.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ecopetrol SA stock, see the EC Stock Forecast page.

Ecopetrol Shareholders Approve Bylaws Amendment in November Meeting
Nov 12, 2025

On November 11, 2025, Ecopetrol S.A. held an extraordinary General Shareholders’ Meeting where shareholders approved an amendment to the company’s bylaws. The meeting, which complied with Colombian legal requirements, also saw the appointment of Germán Ávila as Chair and the establishment of committees for elections and minutes review. The amendment approval reflects Ecopetrol’s ongoing efforts to adapt its governance structure, potentially impacting its strategic operations and stakeholder relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (EC) stock is a Buy with a $11.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ecopetrol SA stock, see the EC Stock Forecast page.

Ecopetrol Announces Key Leadership Changes in November 2025
Nov 12, 2025

On November 11, 2025, Ecopetrol S.A. announced significant changes in its senior management, effective November 16. Juan Carlos Hurtado Parra was appointed as Executive Vice President of Hydrocarbons, succeeding Rafael Ernesto Guzmán Ayala, who will pursue new challenges within the company. Rodolfo Mario García Paredes was confirmed as Chief Compliance Officer. These appointments are expected to bolster Ecopetrol’s leadership and strategic direction in the energy sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (EC) stock is a Buy with a $11.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ecopetrol SA stock, see the EC Stock Forecast page.

Ecopetrol S.A. Schedules Q3 2025 Earnings Release and Conference Call
Oct 31, 2025

Ecopetrol S.A. announced it will release its third-quarter 2025 financial and operating results after market close on November 13, 2025. A virtual conference call to discuss these results will be held on November 14, 2025, with options for Spanish and English transmission. This announcement is significant as it provides stakeholders with insights into the company’s performance and strategic direction, potentially impacting its market position and investor relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (EC) stock is a Sell with a $7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ecopetrol SA stock, see the EC Stock Forecast page.

Fitch Ratings Reaffirms Ecopetrol’s Credit Ratings as of October 2025
Oct 31, 2025

On October 30, 2025, Fitch Ratings reaffirmed Ecopetrol’s global credit rating at ‘BB+’ with a Negative Outlook, while maintaining its Standalone Credit Profile at ‘bbb-‘. The national long- and short-term ratings were affirmed at ‘AAA (col)’ with a Stable Outlook and ‘F1+(col)’, respectively. These ratings reflect Ecopetrol’s strategic importance to Colombia, its solid financial profile, and stable operating metrics, indicating a strong investment-grade standing that surpasses its global rating by one notch.

The most recent analyst rating on (EC) stock is a Sell with a $7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ecopetrol SA stock, see the EC Stock Forecast page.

Ecopetrol Secures COP 700,000 Million Loan Authorization
Oct 23, 2025

On October 21, 2025, Ecopetrol S.A. received authorization from the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit to secure a domestic loan of up to COP 700,000 million from Banco Davivienda. This loan, structured as a non-revolving committed credit line, will have a five-year term with a bullet repayment at maturity and interest indexed to the IBR rate. The funds are intended for non-investment expenditures, aligning with the company’s financing plan. The favorable terms of this credit line highlight the confidence of the domestic financial sector in Ecopetrol’s strategy and are expected to positively impact the company’s liquidity and financial stability, sending a reassuring signal to credit rating agencies.

The most recent analyst rating on (EC) stock is a Buy with a $9.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ecopetrol SA stock, see the EC Stock Forecast page.

Ecopetrol S.A. Announces Extraordinary Shareholders’ Meeting for November 2025
Oct 23, 2025

Ecopetrol S.A. has announced an extraordinary General Shareholders’ Meeting scheduled for November 11, 2025, in Bogota, Colombia. The meeting will be conducted in person with electronic voting options and live streaming available. Shareholders are encouraged to attend with smart devices, and provisions have been made for those unable to do so. The agenda includes safety guidelines, quorum verification, and amendments to corporate bylaws, indicating potential strategic shifts within the company.

The most recent analyst rating on (EC) stock is a Buy with a $9.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ecopetrol SA stock, see the EC Stock Forecast page.

Ecopetrol Announces Extraordinary Shareholders’ Meeting for November 2025
Oct 23, 2025

Ecopetrol S.A. has announced an extraordinary General Shareholders’ Meeting scheduled for November 11, 2025, in Bogota, Colombia. The meeting will address several agenda items, including amendments to the corporate bylaws. Shareholders can participate in person or via live streaming, with electronic voting facilitated through smart devices. The company has provided mechanisms for those unable to attend physically, ensuring broad shareholder participation. This meeting is crucial for Ecopetrol’s governance and operational adjustments, potentially impacting its strategic direction and stakeholder engagement.

The most recent analyst rating on (EC) stock is a Buy with a $9.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ecopetrol SA stock, see the EC Stock Forecast page.

Ecopetrol Announces Board Chair Resignation
Oct 16, 2025

On October 14, 2025, Dr. Mónica De Greiff Lindo announced her resignation as an independent member and Chair of Ecopetrol’s board of directors, effective immediately. The company plans to notify its majority shareholder and initiate procedures to appoint her replacement, with Vice Chair Dr. Angela María Robledo Gómez stepping in as interim Chair. Ecopetrol expressed gratitude for Dr. De Greiff Lindo’s contributions during her three-year tenure.

The most recent analyst rating on (EC) stock is a Buy with a $10.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ecopetrol SA stock, see the EC Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 19, 2025