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Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras
(NYSE:PBR)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$20.00
▲(12.04% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/18/26
The score is driven primarily by above-average financial performance (strong margins and solid free cash flow) and compelling valuation (low P/E and high dividend yield). The latest earnings call supports the outlook with strong execution and cash generation, while technical indicators are more neutral-to-soft in the near term, limiting the overall score.
Positive Factors
Production Growth
Pre-salt FPSO ramp-ups and production above nameplate capacity support sustained volume growth. The remaining H2 capacity and ongoing drilling, completions and interconnections provide a visible pipeline for expanding upstream cash generation.
Negative Factors
Commodity and Currency Exposure
Petrobras’s earnings remain tied to global oil prices and the Brazilian real-dollar exchange rate. A weaker commodity environment or adverse currency movement could reduce upstream cash generation, pressure returns and slow deleveraging or investment.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Production Growth
Pre-salt FPSO ramp-ups and production above nameplate capacity support sustained volume growth. The remaining H2 capacity and ongoing drilling, completions and interconnections provide a visible pipeline for expanding upstream cash generation.
Read all positive factors
Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras (PBR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$109.09B
Dividend Yield8.13%
Average Volume (3M)14.49M
Price to Earnings (P/E)6.2
Beta (1Y)-0.19
Revenue Growth20.82%
EPS Growth86.33%
CountryUS
Employees50,687
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Integrated
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.97
Shares Outstanding3,721,115,700
10 Day Avg. Volume14,185,774
30 Day Avg. Volume14,493,624
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.02
Price to Book (P/B)1.01
Price to Sales (P/S)0.87
P/FCF Ratio4.57
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$22.55Price Target Upside26.33% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)4.36
Revenue Forecast (FY)$113.54B
Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Brazilian energy giant Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. (Petrobras) is deeply involved in the global oil and gas industry, conducting exploration, production, and sales activities both within Brazil and internationally. The company's diverse operations ar...
How the Company Makes Money
Petrobras primarily makes money by producing crude oil and natural gas and selling these hydrocarbons and their refined derivatives in domestic and international markets. Its key revenue streams typically include: (1) Exploration & Production (Ups...
Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong operational execution and record financial results driven by production ramp-ups, higher refining utilization and robust cash generation. Management balanced this with caution on macro volatility (Brent/FX), operating-cost pressures (freight/logistics), some short-term balance-sheet recognition from lease amendments, regulatory uncertainty (gas policy), and ongoing exposure to Braskem. Overall the positive operational and financial momentum materially outweighs the challenges noted.Positive Updates
Record Recurring Profit and Gross Profit
Achieved the highest recurring net profit in dollars for a quarter in Petrobras' history (excluding one-offs). Gross profit reached $19.5 billion for the quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was ~$20 billion (≈70% QoQ increase and nearly 2x YoY).
Negative Updates
Exposure to Brent Price and FX Volatility
Management reiterated that Brent prices (above $100/bbl in period) and exchange rate remain outside company control; future project economics and cash flow may be materially affected by volatility and expected reversion of prices toward strategic-plan assumptions.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Recurring Profit and Gross Profit
Achieved the highest recurring net profit in dollars for a quarter in Petrobras' history (excluding one-offs). Gross profit reached $19.5 billion for the quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was ~$20 billion (≈70% QoQ increase and nearly 2x YoY).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided that strong operating delivery underpins its outlook: Q2 production was 2.7 million bbl/d (>3.0 million boe/d), beating the Q2 target of 2.5 m bbl/d by 200k and up 15% YoY (≈+350k bbl/d), with ~270k bbl/d of additional ramp‑up capacity available in H2; major FPSOs (225k nameplate) have hit up to ~270k bbl/d and six units already add >100k bbl/d above nameplate. CapEx was $5.3bn in Q2 (+4% vs Q1), $10.4bn YTD, ~82% to E&P and full‑year guidance ~ $16.9bn (±5%); activity rose (drilling +40%, completions +45%, interconnections +43%). Refining utilization exceeded 100% (Q2 ~101%, Apr–May ~102%), product output +6% QoQ, imports down 40% QoQ, exports +12% QoQ; adjusted EBITDA ex‑one‑offs was $20bn (+70% QoQ), gross profit $19.5bn, operating cash flow $12.3bn (+~50% QoQ). Balance‑sheet metrics: gross debt $70.8bn, net debt $60.4bn, target to converge to ~$65bn over the plan horizon (longer‑term net‑debt ambition cited), actions to save >$1bn cash over 2026–2030 and cut debt by >$400m by 2030; Q2 taxes/government take totaled BRL 88.6bn (BRL 500m municipalities, BRL 31.5bn states, BRL 34.2bn federal, BRL 22.4bn royalties).Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
64
Positive
Cash Flow
72
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 104.22B | 88.10B | 91.42B | 105.54B | 124.47B | 83.97B |
| Gross Profit | 51.09B | 38.01B | 45.97B | 55.64B | 64.99B | 40.80B |
| EBITDA | 57.87B | 46.17B | 27.46B | 50.92B | 69.93B | 44.90B |
| Net Income | 25.55B | 19.71B | 7.53B | 25.69B | 36.62B | 19.88B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 247.08B | 223.28B | 181.65B | 217.07B | 187.19B | 174.35B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 10.39B | 9.24B | 7.53B | 15.55B | 10.77B | 11.12B |
| Total Debt | 70.81B | 70.09B | 60.31B | 62.60B | 53.80B | 58.74B |
| Total Liabilities | 153.99B | 147.07B | 122.30B | 138.09B | 117.36B | 104.54B |
| Stockholders Equity | 92.91B | 75.88B | 59.11B | 78.58B | 69.49B | 69.41B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 18.68B | 16.72B | 23.34B | 31.10B | 40.14B | 31.47B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 39.27B | 36.56B | 37.98B | 43.21B | 49.72B | 37.79B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -20.89B | -15.72B | -13.37B | -7.96B | -432.00M | 2.16B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -18.93B | -17.73B | -33.09B | -30.70B | -51.45B | -40.79B |
Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras Technical Analysis
Negative
17.85
Price Trends
17.35
Positive
18.38
Negative
16.15
Positive
Market Momentum
0.13
Negative
49.57
Neutral
37.92
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PBR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 17.85 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.04, above the 50-day MA of 17.35, and above the 200-day MA of 16.15, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.13 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.57 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 37.92 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for PBR.
Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $660.54B | 20.36 | 12.68% | 2.60% | 10.58% | 9.80% | |
76 Outperform | $394.94B | 19.13 | 10.98% | 3.58% | 12.71% | 34.53% | |
75 Outperform | $253.92B | 10.03 | 14.66% | 3.35% | 7.37% | 103.01% | |
72 Outperform | $109.09B | 6.15 | 27.02% | 6.18% | 20.82% | 86.33% | |
66 Neutral | $99.77B | 11.30 | 21.61% | 3.72% | 6.81% | 21.88% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
58 Neutral | $111.04B | 20.61 | 9.53% | 4.56% | 15.84% | 791.90% |
* Energy Sector Average
PBR
Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras
17.76
6.42
56.59%
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Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras Corporate Events
Petrobras Pays R$161 Billion in Taxes and Royalties in First Half of 2026
Aug 14, 2026
In the first half of 2026, Petrobras reported total tax and government take payments of R$161 billion on a cash basis, covering its own taxes, levies withheld from third parties and government take such as royalties and special participation. Of t...
Petrobras Posts Stronger Mid-2026 Balance Sheet on Revenue Growth
Aug 7, 2026
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. – Petrobras is Brazil’s state-controlled oil and gas major, operating across exploration, production, refining, transport and distribution. The company focuses on petroleum and natural gas products and rel...
Petrobras Sets Record 2Q26 Earnings on P-79 Start-Up and Refining Surge
Aug 7, 2026
In the second quarter of 2026, Petrobras delivered one of its strongest quarterly results on record, as higher oil and oil products output, including the start-up of the P-79 platform in the Búzios field and ramp-up of other systems, combined...
Petrobras Reports Mid‑2026 Interim Financial Position with Higher Assets and Debt
Aug 7, 2026
On August 2026, Petrobras filed interim financial information for the period ended June 30, 2026, providing detailed parent company and consolidated statements of financial position, income, cash flows, and changes in equity. The filing shows tota...
Petrobras Posts Record Output and Refining Utilization in 2Q26, Advances Pre-Salt and ESG Agenda
Aug 7, 2026
In the second quarter of 2026, Petrobras reported record total oil and natural gas production of 3.34 MMboed, driven by improved operational efficiency, enhanced reservoir management, and new platform start-ups such as P-79 in the Búzios fiel...
Petrobras Approves R$17.4 Billion 2026 Advance Payout to Shareholders
Aug 7, 2026
On August 6, 2026, Petrobras’ board approved R$17.4 billion in shareholder remuneration, equal to R$1.34814262 per outstanding common and preferred share, as an advance related to the 2026 fiscal year based on the June 30, 2026 balance sheet...
Petrobras Announces New Offshore Gas Discovery in Colombia’s Deep Waters
Aug 3, 2026
Petrobras reported a new natural gas discovery on August 3, 2026, at the Sandia-1 exploratory well in deep waters offshore Colombia, in Block GUA-OFF-O. The well, operated via its Colombian subsidiary PIB-COL in consortium with Ecopetrol, undersco...
Petrobras Sets Production and Refining Records in Second Quarter 2026
Jul 29, 2026
In the second quarter of 2026, Petrobras delivered record operational performance, with average own production of oil, NGL and natural gas reaching 3.34 million boe per day, up 14.1% year on year and 3.4% quarter on quarter, supported by higher ef...
Petrobras Receives New R$1.7 Billion Installment Under Brazil’s Diesel Subsidy Program
Jul 23, 2026
On July 22, 2026, Petrobras reported that it received a new R$1.7 billion installment under Brazil’s Diesel Economic Subvention Program, covering diesel commercialization between May 16 and May 31, 2026. This payment lifts the cumulative amo...
Petrobras Discloses GQG Partners’ 4.99% ADR Stake Following July 13 Notification
Jul 14, 2026
On July 13, 2026, Petrobras reported a change in a significant equity interest following a notification from asset manager GQG Partners LLC. GQG informed the company that the total exposure of its client portfolio reached 185,869,498 Petrobras ADR...
Petrobras Completes Acquisition of Offshore Block in São Tomé and Príncipe
Jul 10, 2026
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. – Petrobras is Brazil’s state-controlled energy giant, focused on exploration, production, refining and distribution of oil and natural gas. The company has been expanding its offshore portfolio, including...
Petrobras Schedules Late-July and Early-August Releases for 2Q26 Results
Jul 8, 2026
Petrobras announced from Rio de Janeiro on July 7, 2026 that it will publish its second-quarter 2026 Production and Sales Report on July 28, 2026, after market close. The Brazilian oil major will follow this with the release of its 2Q26 financial ...
Petrobras Receives R$ 2.7 Billion in New Diesel Subsidy Installments, Lifting Total to R$ 4.7 Billion
Jul 7, 2026
On July 6, 2026, Petrobras reported it had received two additional payments under Brazil’s Diesel Economic Subvention Program, totaling R$ 2.7 billion for diesel commercialization between April 20–30 and May 1–15, 2026. With thes...
Petrobras Receives New R$1.1 Billion Diesel Subsidy Installment
Jul 1, 2026
On June 30, 2026, Petrobras reported receiving a new installment of R$1.1 billion under Brazil’s Economic Subvention Program for diesel commercialization, covering the period from April 7 to 19, 2026. With this payment, the company’s t...
Petrobras Sets June 26 Redemption of 7.375% Global Notes Due 2027
Jun 24, 2026
On June 23, 2026, Petrobras said its financing arm Petrobras Global Finance B.V. has set the redemption price for its 7.375% Global Notes due 2027, with the US$670,009,000 principal to be redeemed on June 26, 2026. The move is funded with availabl...
Petrobras Signs Nonbinding Cooperation Pact with PEMEX on Hydrocarbon and Low-Carbon Projects
Jun 23, 2026
On June 23, 2026, Petrobras announced it had signed a two-year Memorandum of Understanding with Mexico’s state oil company PEMEX to pursue strategic and technical cooperation across the hydrocarbons industry. The accord targets joint assessm...
Petrobras 2025 Sustainability Report Highlights Emission Cuts, ESG Investments and Economic Contributions
Jun 23, 2026
In its 2025 Sustainability Report covering the period from January 1 to December 31, 2025, Petrobras detailed progress on integrating environmental, social and governance criteria into its 2026–2030 business plan and 2050 strategic vision. T...
Petrobras Approves $1.2 Billion Biorefining Investment for Bio-Jet Fuel and Renewable Diesel
Jun 22, 2026
On June 19, 2026, Petrobras’ board approved a final investment decision for the RPBC Biorefining project, authorizing about US$1.2 billion to build a dedicated plant for bio-jet fuel and renewable diesel at the Presidente Bernardes Refinery ...
Petrobras Receives First R$752 Million Diesel Subvention Installment
Jun 18, 2026
On June 17, 2026, Petrobras reported it had received the first installment of Brazil’s economic subvention program for diesel oil commercialization, totaling R$ 752 million. The payment covers the period from March 12 to 31, 2026, under Prov...
Petrobras Sets June 22 Payout for Adjusted Q4 2025 Shareholder Remuneration
Jun 16, 2026
On June 16, 2026, Petrobras announced it will pay the second installment of shareholder remuneration tied to the fourth quarter of the 2025 fiscal year on June 22, 2026, based on the shareholder record date of April 22, 2026. The distribution will...
Petrobras to Acquire 50% Stake in Itaimbezinho Exploration Block from Equinor
Jun 10, 2026
On June 10, 2026, Petrobras announced an agreement to acquire a 50% stake in the offshore Itaimbezinho exploration block in the Campos Basin from Equinor Brasil Energia, which currently holds full ownership. After closing, Equinor will retain oper...
Petrobras Joins New Brazilian Diesel Subsidy Program to Bolster Fuel Supply
Jun 2, 2026
On June 2, 2026, Petrobras reported that its board had approved joining a new federal economic subvention for producers and importers of road-use diesel in Brazil, set at R$1.12 per liter under Provisional Measure 1,363 of May 30, 2026. The progra...
Petrobras Inks R$ 60 Billion FPSO Deals to Launch Sergipe Deepwater Hub
May 29, 2026
On May 29, 2026, Petrobras signed contracts with SBM Offshore to design, build, operate and later transfer two FPSO production units for its Sergipe Deepwater (SEAP) project, in a deal structured under a Build, Operate and Transfer model. Petrobra...
Petrobras to Fully Redeem $670 Million of 7.375% Global Notes Due 2027 in June
May 28, 2026
On May 28, 2026, Petrobras announced that its financing arm Petrobras Global Finance B.V. has notified investors it will redeem in full the outstanding 7.375% Global Notes due 2027, totaling $670,009,000 in principal. The redemption is scheduled f...
Petrobras Revamps Statutory Audit Committee, Names New Chair Effective July 2026
May 26, 2026
On May 25, 2026, Petrobras announced that its Board of Directors approved changes to the composition of its Statutory Audit Committee, reinforcing its governance structure. Independent board members Renato Campos Galuppo and Marcelo Gasparino da S...
Petrobras Q1 2026 Profit Rises on Strong Crude Exports and Higher Revenues
May 22, 2026
For the first quarter of 2026, Petrobras reported stronger consolidated results, with sales revenues rising 11.7% year-on-year to US$23.54 billion and net income attributable to shareholders increasing 3.8% to US$6.20 billion, supported by higher ...
Petrobras Files 2026 Reference Form with Brazilian Securities Regulator
May 22, 2026
On May 22, 2026, Petrobras reported that it had filed its 2026 Reference Form with the Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission, covering the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025. The document, available in Portuguese on both the CVM and Petrob...
Petrobras Discloses GQG Partners Crossing 5% Ownership Threshold in Common Shares
May 22, 2026
On May 21, 2026, Petrobras disclosed that asset manager GQG Partners LLC had notified the company of an increase in its clients’ combined exposure to Petrobras common shares and ADRs. GQG’s client portfolio reached 187,199,112 common s...
Petrobras Closes 49.99% Stake in Lightsource bp Brazil, Deepening Solar Push
May 21, 2026
On May 20, 2026, Petrobras completed the acquisition of a 49.99% equity stake in Lightsource bp’s Brazilian subsidiaries, forming a joint venture with equal board representation to develop onshore renewable energy and storage projects in the...
Petrobras Joins New Brazilian Fuel Subsidy Program to Support Gasoline and Diesel Operations
May 21, 2026
On May 20, 2026, Petrobras’s board approved the company’s participation in a new federal economic subvention program for producers and importers of petroleum-derived fuels, created under Provisional Measure 1,358 of May 13, 2026. The m...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.