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Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras (PBR)
NYSE:PBR
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Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras
(NYSE:PBR)
Rating:81Outperform
Price Target:
$14.00
▲(15.99% Upside)
Positive Factors
Production Growth
The ramp-up of new platforms is expected to contribute to PBR's output growth target, offering potential upside to production levels.
Risk Management
Cost-cutting measures and a focus on capital discipline improve the risk/reward profile for PBR, highlighting management's proactive approach to navigating lower oil prices.
Negative Factors
Dividend Yield
Petrobras announced a lower-than-expected dividend for 4Q24, which implies a yield well below expectations.
Financial Performance
4Q24 adjusted EBITDA came in 6% below consensus, with the Upstream segment underperforming.
Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras (PBR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$74.59B
Dividend Yield14.74%
Average Volume (3M)22.26M
Price to Earnings (P/E)5.7
Beta (1Y)0.11
Revenue Growth-13.68%
EPS Growth-13.96%
CountryUS
Employees41,778
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength42
IndustryOil & Gas Integrated
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.76
Shares Outstanding3,721,115,700
10 Day Avg. Volume26,854,864
30 Day Avg. Volume22,258,110
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)0.00
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.87
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.57
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.17
Enterprise Value/Ebitda4.74
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$13.81Price Target Upside14.42% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionPetroleo Brasileiro SA - Petrobras (PBR) is a state-controlled oil and gas company based in Brazil. It operates in various sectors, including exploration and production of oil and natural gas, refining, distribution, and marketing of oil products, as well as biofuels and renewable energy sources. Petrobras is one of the largest producers of oil in Brazil and plays a vital role in the country's energy sector, focusing on offshore oil fields and leveraging advanced technology for exploration and extraction.
How the Company Makes MoneyPetrobras generates revenue primarily through the sale of crude oil, natural gas, and refined petroleum products. Its key revenue streams include upstream activities, which involve exploration and production of oil and gas, contributing significantly to its income. The company also earns revenue from refining operations, where crude oil is processed into various products such as gasoline, diesel, and kerosene. Additionally, Petrobras has a growing focus on biofuels and renewable energy, which adds another layer to its revenue model. The company benefits from partnerships and strategic alliances, particularly in offshore exploration projects, which help reduce costs and share risks. Furthermore, changes in global oil prices and domestic fuel prices set by the Brazilian government can significantly impact its earnings, making market dynamics an important factor for its financial performance.
Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 07, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: -7.72%|
Next Earnings Date:Nov 06, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Petrobras demonstrated strong operational and financial performance despite challenges posed by declining oil prices. The company achieved significant production increases, efficient CapEx execution, and maintained robust financial results and dividend payouts. However, falling oil prices and increased debt from leases present challenges. Overall, the highlights outweigh the lowlights, indicating a positive outlook.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Significant Increase in Oil Production
In Q2 2025, Petrobras produced an average of 2.3 million barrels of oil per day, a 5% increase compared to Q1 2025 and an 8% increase from the same period last year. Production further increased in July to 2.47 million barrels per day.
Increased Gas Supply
Petrobras increased its gas supply to the market by 15% due to advancements in the Rota 3 pipeline and the Boaventura gas processing unit.
Strong Financial Performance
Despite a 10% decline in Brent oil prices, Petrobras reported a net income of USD 4.1 billion and EBITDA of USD 10.2 billion for Q2 2025, maintaining financial results in line with the previous quarter.
Successful CapEx Execution
In Q2 2025, Petrobras invested USD 4.4 billion, reaching a total of USD 18.5 billion for the year, aligning with their guidance and showcasing strong CapEx execution.
Dividend Distribution
The Board approved a distribution of BRL 8.7 billion in dividends, equivalent to BRL 0.67 per share, to be paid in November and December 2025.
Project Efficiency Improvements
Petrobras implemented changes in contracting strategies, leading to significant cost reductions, exemplified by a BRL 1 billion savings in the RNEST project.
Negative Updates
Falling Oil Prices
Brent oil prices declined by 10% from the previous quarter, impacting the company's revenue.
Operational Cash Flow Decline
Operating cash flow decreased to USD 7.5 billion, affected by the absence of one-off events that benefited the previous quarter and increased selling expenses.
Debt Increase Due to Leases
Petrobras' debt increased by approximately USD 5 billion in the first half of 2025 due to lease liabilities associated with new platforms.
Company Guidance
In the Petrobras earnings call for the second quarter of 2025, the company provided guidance highlighting significant growth in oil production, achieving an average of 2.3 million barrels of oil per day, which marks an 8% increase compared to the same period last year. This surge in production was attributed to enhanced operational efficiency and the execution of CapEx investments, which had been adjusted mid-year to align with Petrobras' strategic trajectory. The company also reported an average production of 2.47 million barrels per day in July, demonstrating a robust ramp-up. Despite a 10% drop in Brent prices to approximately $68 per barrel, Petrobras achieved a net income of $4.1 billion and an EBITDA of $10.2 billion, maintaining financial stability. This was accomplished through a strategic focus on cost reduction and increased production, which offset the effects of lower oil prices. The company reiterated its commitment to delivering value to both government and private stakeholders by staying within production and investment guidance and emphasizing the importance of sustainable energy transition initiatives. Additionally, Petrobras highlighted its plans to continue optimizing projects and exploring new business opportunities while maintaining capital discipline.Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Petrobras demonstrates strong profitability and efficient cash flow generation, though faces challenges with declining revenue growth and reduced return on equity. Overall, it remains financially stable with moderate leverage.Income Statement
Petrobras has shown strong profitability with a gross profit margin of 49.7% and an EBIT margin of 26.8% in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), indicating operational efficiency. However, the revenue growth rate has been negative over the past year, suggesting a contraction in top-line performance. Despite this, the net profit margin remains robust at 9.8%, showcasing effective cost control and profitability.85
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
The company's balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.94, indicating moderate leverage. The equity ratio stands at 34.5%, which underscores strong equity financing. However, the return on equity has decreased to 12.7% in the TTM, suggesting reduced efficiency in generating profits from shareholders' equity.78
Positive
Cash Flow
Petrobras has demonstrated strong cash flow generation with an operating cash flow to net income ratio of 4.24, indicating efficient cash generation from operations. Free cash flow remains positive, though it has declined compared to previous periods. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 2.41 reflects solid ability to generate cash relative to net income.82
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 91.42B | 102.41B | 124.47B | 83.97B | 53.68B |
| Gross Profit | 45.97B | 53.97B | 64.99B | 40.80B | 24.49B |
| EBITDA | 25.52B | 52.30B | 70.05B | 44.90B | 16.99B |
| Net Income | 6.79B | 24.88B | 36.62B | 19.88B | 1.14B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 181.65B | 217.07B | 187.19B | 174.35B | 190.01B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 7.53B | 15.55B | 10.77B | 11.12B | 12.37B |
| Total Debt | 60.31B | 62.60B | 53.80B | 58.74B | 75.54B |
| Total Liabilities | 122.30B | 138.09B | 117.36B | 104.54B | 130.13B |
| Stockholders Equity | 59.11B | 78.58B | 69.49B | 69.41B | 59.35B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 23.34B | 31.10B | 40.14B | 31.47B | 23.02B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 37.98B | 43.21B | 49.72B | 37.79B | 28.89B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -13.37B | -7.96B | -432.00M | 2.16B | -4.51B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -33.09B | -30.70B | -51.45B | -40.79B | -19.26B |
Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras Technical Analysis
Negative
12.07
Price Trends
12.49
Negative
12.10
Negative
12.44
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.09
Positive
40.17
Neutral
10.28
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PBR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 12.07 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.53, below the 50-day MA of 12.49, and below the 200-day MA of 12.44, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.09 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.17 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.28 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for PBR.
Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (57)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | $74.59B | 5.69 | 19.48% | 14.74% | -13.68% | -13.96% | |
79 Outperform | $53.34B | 20.22 | 4.83% | 6.74% | -6.31% | -33.87% | |
78 Outperform | $139.67B | 10.94 | 10.96% | 5.68% | -10.73% | -36.76% | |
77 Outperform | $208.89B | 14.06 | 7.40% | 3.95% | ― | ― | |
67 Neutral | $62.17B | 8.11 | 19.22% | 10.07% | 1.19% | -7.87% | |
57 Neutral | HK$79.13B | 2.04 | 1.58% | 5.48% | 0.84% | -49.13% | |
53 Neutral | $88.41B | 145.47 | 0.95% | 5.60% | -7.40% | -90.89% |
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
PBR
Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras
12.07
-1.22
-9.18%
BP
BP
34.33
2.17
6.75%
E
Eni SPA
35.21
4.46
14.50%
SHEL
Shell
71.85
1.96
2.80%
EQNR
Equinor ASA
24.54
-1.46
-5.62%
TTE
TotalEnergies
62.24
-3.76
-5.70%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.