Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras (PBR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $77.43B
• Dividend Yield: 14.17%
• Average Volume (3M): 21.22M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.15
• Revenue Growth: -10.84%
• EPS Growth: -61.73%
• Country: US
• Employees: 41,778
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 51
• Industry: Oil & Gas Integrated
• EPS (TTM): 0.95
• Shares Outstanding: 3,721,115,700
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 17,596,849
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 21,215,453
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $14.19
• Price Target Upside: 13.07% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7

• Rating: 81 Outperform
• Price Target: $14.50 ▲(15.54%Upside)

Petrobras shows strong profitability and attractive valuation, supported by a robust dividend yield. While technical indicators are neutral, the company is managing challenges from declining oil prices and increased debt through strategic initiatives discussed in the earnings call.

Positive Factors

Production Growth

The ramp-up of new platforms is expected to contribute to PBR's output growth target, offering potential upside to production levels.

Reserves

Petrobras was able to maintain its trajectory of reserves addition in 2024, with a reserve replacement index totaling 154% of 2024’s production.

Valuation

PBR's shares are trading at a significant discount compared to global peers, presenting an opportunity for re-rating and making the stock more attractive.

Negative Factors

Capital Expenditure

PBR closed the year with a capex figure significantly above the revised guidance, which could be received negatively by the market.

Dividends

Petrobras announced a lower-than-expected dividend for 4Q24, which implies a yield well below expectations.

Financial Performance

4Q24 adjusted EBITDA came in 6% below consensus, with the Upstream segment underperforming.

Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras explores for, produces, and sells oil and gas in Brazil and internationally. The company operates through Exploration and Production; Refining, Transportation and Marketing; Gas and Power; and Corporate and Other Businesses segments. It engages in prospecting, drilling, refining, processing, trading, and transporting crude oil from producing onshore and offshore oil fields, and shale or other rocks, as well as oil products, natural gas, and other liquid hydrocarbons. The Exploration and Production segment explores, develops, and produces crude oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas primarily for supplies to the domestic refineries. The Refining, Transportation and Marketing segment engages in the refining, logistics, transport, marketing, and trading of crude oil and oil products; exportation of ethanol; and extraction and processing of shale, as well as holding interests in petrochemical companies. The Gas and Power segment is involved in the logistic and trading of natural gas and electricity; transportation and trading of LNG; generation of electricity through thermoelectric power plants; holding interests in transportation and distribution of natural gas; and fertilizer production and natural gas processing business. The Corporate and Other Businesses segment produces biodiesel and its co-products, and ethanol; and distributes oil products. Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras was incorporated in 1953 and is headquartered in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

How the Company Makes Money

Petrobras primarily generates revenue through the exploration, production, and sale of crude oil and natural gas. The company is heavily involved in the upstream segment, where it explores and extracts oil and gas from reserves, particularly in offshore fields. In the downstream sector, Petrobras refines crude oil into various petroleum products, which are then marketed and distributed to consumers and industries. The company also engages in the petrochemicals sector, producing and selling chemicals derived from oil and gas. Additionally, Petrobras generates income from its electricity generation and distribution operations. The company's revenue is significantly influenced by global oil prices, exploration success, production levels, and its refining capacity. Strategic partnerships and joint ventures with other energy companies also play a crucial role in enhancing its operations and revenue potential.

Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Petrobras demonstrates strong profitability and efficient cash flow generation, though faces challenges with declining revenue growth and reduced return on equity. Overall, it remains financially stable with moderate leverage.

Income Statement

Petrobras has shown strong profitability with a gross profit margin of 49.7% and an EBIT margin of 26.8% in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), indicating operational efficiency. However, the revenue growth rate has been negative over the past year, suggesting a contraction in top-line performance. Despite this, the net profit margin remains robust at 9.8%, showcasing effective cost control and profitability.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.94, indicating moderate leverage. The equity ratio stands at 34.5%, which underscores strong equity financing. However, the return on equity has decreased to 12.7% in the TTM, suggesting reduced efficiency in generating profits from shareholders' equity.

Cash Flow

Petrobras has demonstrated strong cash flow generation with an operating cash flow to net income ratio of 4.24, indicating efficient cash generation from operations. Free cash flow remains positive, though it has declined compared to previous periods. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 2.41 reflects solid ability to generate cash relative to net income.

Breakdown
Income Statement
Total Revenue
Gross Profit
EBITDA
Net Income
Balance Sheet
Total Assets
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
Total Debt
Total Liabilities
Stockholders Equity
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow
Operating Cash Flow
Investing Cash Flow
Financing Cash Flow

Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 12.55
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PBR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 12.55 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.61, above the 50-day MA of 12.20, and above the 200-day MA of 12.46, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.05 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.36 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.84 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PBR.

Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PBR	81 Outperform	$77.43B	9.58	11.25%	14.17%	-10.84%	-61.73%
TTE	78 Outperform	$135.54B	10.71	10.96%	5.32%	-10.73%	-36.76%
E	77 Outperform	$52.44B	19.45	4.78%	0.23%	-2.17%	-25.00%
SHEL	76 Outperform	$210.15B	14.13	7.40%	3.89%	―	―
EQNR	73 Outperform	$65.96B	8.62	19.22%	9.47%	1.19%	-7.87%
BP	71 Outperform	$82.82B	186.20	-1.84%	5.82%	-7.91%	-113.62%
Sector *	52 Neutral	C$2.98B	-1.53	-3.48%	6.50%	3.05%	-49.39%