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Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras
(NYSE:PBR)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$18.00
▼(-4.10% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/10/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (solid margins and cash generation) and very attractive valuation (low P/E and high dividend yield). These positives are tempered by weak technicals, with bearish trend signals despite oversold readings.
Positive Factors
Cash generation
Sizable operating cash flow and positive free cash flow provide durable funding for capital expenditure, debt reduction, and shareholder distributions. Consistent multi‑billion cash generation underpins strategic investments and liquidity buffers, supporting resilience across commodity cycles.
Negative Factors
Leverage level
A roughly one‑to‑one debt/equity mix leaves the company sensitive to weaker oil prices or tighter financing conditions. While manageable today, material leverage reduces flexibility for sustained capex, increases refinancing risk on large obligations, and heightens exposure to interest and liquidity shocks.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation
Sizable operating cash flow and positive free cash flow provide durable funding for capital expenditure, debt reduction, and shareholder distributions. Consistent multi‑billion cash generation underpins strategic investments and liquidity buffers, supporting resilience across commodity cycles.
Read all positive factors
Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras (PBR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$117.34B
Dividend Yield5.98%
Average Volume (3M)14.49M
Price to Earnings (P/E)6.2
Beta (1Y)-0.05
Revenue Growth3.35%
EPS Growth133.76%
CountryUS
Employees50,687
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Integrated
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.07
Shares Outstanding3,721,115,700
10 Day Avg. Volume14,185,774
30 Day Avg. Volume14,493,624
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.02
Price to Book (P/B)1.01
Price to Sales (P/S)0.87
P/FCF Ratio4.57
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$23.03Price Target Upside22.71% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)4.23
Revenue Forecast (FY)$112.99B
Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Brazilian energy giant Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. (Petrobras) is deeply involved in the global oil and gas industry, conducting exploration, production, and sales activities both within Brazil and internationally. The company's diverse operations ar...
How the Company Makes Money
Petrobras primarily makes money by producing crude oil and natural gas and selling these hydrocarbons and their refined derivatives in domestic and international markets. Its key revenue streams typically include: (1) Exploration & Production (Ups...
Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong operational execution and financial resilience — record production growth (+11% YoY), major pre‑salt milestones, robust EBITDA (~$42.5bn) and operating cash flow ($36bn) despite a 14% decline in Brent. The company also highlighted meaningful reserve additions (1.7 billion barrels, 175% replacement), heavy E&P investment, and progress in low‑carbon fuels. Key risks noted were macro price volatility, lack of a hedging strategy, sizeable gross debt/leasing exposure, and pending transactions/exploratory uncertainties (Braskem approval, equatorial margin results). Overall, positive operational momentum and disciplined capital allocation were judged to outweigh the external and transactional uncertainties.Positive Updates
Strong Production Growth
Total oil production increased 11% in 2025 versus 2024, driven by pre-salt ramp-ups and operational efficiency improvements (decline rates reduced from ~12% to ~4%), with efficiency gains contributing ~100,000 barrels/day equivalent.
Negative Updates
Oil Price Decline and Volatility
Average Brent fell to $69/bbl in 2025 (-14% YoY). Continued geopolitical volatility (Middle East conflict) creates price uncertainty and short‑term market disruptions that require daily re‑planning.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Production Growth
Total oil production increased 11% in 2025 versus 2024, driven by pre-salt ramp-ups and operational efficiency improvements (decline rates reduced from ~12% to ~4%), with efficiency gains contributing ~100,000 barrels/day equivalent.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The management reiterated clear guidance built on three pillars—capital discipline, higher production and greater efficiency—backed by concrete 2025 metrics and short‑term targets: production rose 11% y/y, pre‑salt output delivered record platforms (Buzios, Atapu and Sépia each >1.0 million bpd), Q4 exports averaged 999,000 bpd (675,000 bpd for the year), domestic by‑product sales were 1,747,000 bpd (+1.43% y/y) with diesel sales +5.2% and QAV +6%, refinery utilization ~91–92% (68–70% higher‑value diesel/gasoline/QAV), reserve additions of 1.7 billion barrels (reserve replacement 175%), adjusted EBITDA ~$42.5bn ($43.8bn incl. events), operating cash flow ~$36bn, net income ~$19.6bn (adjusted), gross debt $69.8bn (62% leasing), 2025 CapEx >$20bn (+22%) with ~84% to E&P (~$17bn), Boaventura gas processing at 21 million m3/day and 6.6 million m3/day contracted inflexibly—while reiterating no price hedging, a policy of not passing volatility into domestic prices, possible extraordinary payouts only after protecting planned CapEx (Board approved BRL 8.1bn / BRL 0.62 per share this quarter; BRL 45bn distributed in the year), and ongoing ramp‑ups/anticipations (P‑78/P‑79 ramp‑up focus; P‑80/82/83 sailaways in 2026–27) to sustain cash generation and resilience even with a $69/bbl average Brent in 2025 (‑14% vs 2024).Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
67
Positive
Cash Flow
72
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 91.65B | 88.10B | 91.42B | 105.54B | 124.47B | 83.97B |
| Gross Profit | 41.61B | 38.01B | 45.97B | 55.64B | 64.99B | 40.80B |
| EBITDA | 49.73B | 46.17B | 27.46B | 50.92B | 69.93B | 44.90B |
| Net Income | 19.86B | 19.71B | 7.53B | 25.69B | 36.62B | 19.88B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 238.62B | 223.28B | 181.65B | 217.07B | 187.19B | 174.35B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 9.12B | 9.24B | 7.53B | 15.55B | 10.77B | 11.12B |
| Total Debt | 71.18B | 70.09B | 60.31B | 62.60B | 53.80B | 58.74B |
| Total Liabilities | 153.14B | 147.07B | 122.30B | 138.09B | 117.36B | 104.54B |
| Stockholders Equity | 85.25B | 75.88B | 59.11B | 78.58B | 69.49B | 69.41B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 14.87B | 16.72B | 23.34B | 31.10B | 40.14B | 31.47B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 34.92B | 36.56B | 37.98B | 43.21B | 49.72B | 37.79B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -17.57B | -15.72B | -13.37B | -7.96B | -432.00M | 2.16B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -15.48B | -17.73B | -33.09B | -30.70B | -51.45B | -40.79B |
Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras Technical Analysis
Positive
18.77
Price Trends
17.82
Positive
18.98
Positive
15.97
Positive
Market Momentum
0.40
Negative
60.82
Neutral
85.94
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PBR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 18.77 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.15, above the 50-day MA of 17.82, and above the 200-day MA of 15.97, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.40 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.82 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.94 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PBR.
Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $252.56B | 10.03 | 14.63% | 3.35% | 7.39% | 103.04% | |
72 Outperform | $117.34B | 6.15 | 27.02% | 6.18% | 3.35% | 133.76% | |
71 Outperform | $80.89B | 13.55 | 10.93% | 4.66% | 4.18% | 139.76% | |
66 Neutral | $97.38B | 11.14 | 21.61% | 3.72% | 6.81% | 21.88% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
63 Neutral | $115.03B | 38.26 | 5.52% | 4.56% | 4.29% | ― |
* Energy Sector Average
PBR
Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras
19.06
6.98
57.73%
BP
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44.26
12.36
38.76%
E
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54.50
21.31
64.21%
SHEL
Shell
91.08
21.36
30.64%
EQNR
Equinor ASA
39.91
15.74
65.13%
TTE
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87.20
30.44
53.64%
Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras Corporate Events
Petrobras Sets Production and Refining Records in Second Quarter 2026
Jul 29, 2026
In the second quarter of 2026, Petrobras delivered record operational performance, with average own production of oil, NGL and natural gas reaching 3.34 million boe per day, up 14.1% year on year and 3.4% quarter on quarter, supported by higher ef...
Petrobras Receives New R$1.7 Billion Installment Under Brazil’s Diesel Subsidy Program
Jul 23, 2026
On July 22, 2026, Petrobras reported that it received a new R$1.7 billion installment under Brazil’s Diesel Economic Subvention Program, covering diesel commercialization between May 16 and May 31, 2026. This payment lifts the cumulative amo...
Petrobras Discloses GQG Partners’ 4.99% ADR Stake Following July 13 Notification
Jul 14, 2026
On July 13, 2026, Petrobras reported a change in a significant equity interest following a notification from asset manager GQG Partners LLC. GQG informed the company that the total exposure of its client portfolio reached 185,869,498 Petrobras ADR...
Petrobras Completes Acquisition of Offshore Block in São Tomé and Príncipe
Jul 10, 2026
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. – Petrobras is Brazil’s state-controlled energy giant, focused on exploration, production, refining and distribution of oil and natural gas. The company has been expanding its offshore portfolio, including...
Petrobras Schedules Late-July and Early-August Releases for 2Q26 Results
Jul 8, 2026
Petrobras announced from Rio de Janeiro on July 7, 2026 that it will publish its second-quarter 2026 Production and Sales Report on July 28, 2026, after market close. The Brazilian oil major will follow this with the release of its 2Q26 financial ...
Petrobras Receives R$ 2.7 Billion in New Diesel Subsidy Installments, Lifting Total to R$ 4.7 Billion
Jul 7, 2026
On July 6, 2026, Petrobras reported it had received two additional payments under Brazil’s Diesel Economic Subvention Program, totaling R$ 2.7 billion for diesel commercialization between April 20–30 and May 1–15, 2026. With thes...
Petrobras Receives New R$1.1 Billion Diesel Subsidy Installment
Jul 1, 2026
On June 30, 2026, Petrobras reported receiving a new installment of R$1.1 billion under Brazil’s Economic Subvention Program for diesel commercialization, covering the period from April 7 to 19, 2026. With this payment, the company’s t...
Petrobras Sets June 26 Redemption of 7.375% Global Notes Due 2027
Jun 24, 2026
On June 23, 2026, Petrobras said its financing arm Petrobras Global Finance B.V. has set the redemption price for its 7.375% Global Notes due 2027, with the US$670,009,000 principal to be redeemed on June 26, 2026. The move is funded with availabl...
Petrobras Signs Nonbinding Cooperation Pact with PEMEX on Hydrocarbon and Low-Carbon Projects
Jun 23, 2026
On June 23, 2026, Petrobras announced it had signed a two-year Memorandum of Understanding with Mexico’s state oil company PEMEX to pursue strategic and technical cooperation across the hydrocarbons industry. The accord targets joint assessm...
Petrobras 2025 Sustainability Report Highlights Emission Cuts, ESG Investments and Economic Contributions
Jun 23, 2026
In its 2025 Sustainability Report covering the period from January 1 to December 31, 2025, Petrobras detailed progress on integrating environmental, social and governance criteria into its 2026–2030 business plan and 2050 strategic vision. T...
Petrobras Approves $1.2 Billion Biorefining Investment for Bio-Jet Fuel and Renewable Diesel
Jun 22, 2026
On June 19, 2026, Petrobras’ board approved a final investment decision for the RPBC Biorefining project, authorizing about US$1.2 billion to build a dedicated plant for bio-jet fuel and renewable diesel at the Presidente Bernardes Refinery ...
Petrobras Receives First R$752 Million Diesel Subvention Installment
Jun 18, 2026
On June 17, 2026, Petrobras reported it had received the first installment of Brazil’s economic subvention program for diesel oil commercialization, totaling R$ 752 million. The payment covers the period from March 12 to 31, 2026, under Prov...
Petrobras Sets June 22 Payout for Adjusted Q4 2025 Shareholder Remuneration
Jun 16, 2026
On June 16, 2026, Petrobras announced it will pay the second installment of shareholder remuneration tied to the fourth quarter of the 2025 fiscal year on June 22, 2026, based on the shareholder record date of April 22, 2026. The distribution will...
Petrobras to Acquire 50% Stake in Itaimbezinho Exploration Block from Equinor
Jun 10, 2026
On June 10, 2026, Petrobras announced an agreement to acquire a 50% stake in the offshore Itaimbezinho exploration block in the Campos Basin from Equinor Brasil Energia, which currently holds full ownership. After closing, Equinor will retain oper...
Petrobras Joins New Brazilian Diesel Subsidy Program to Bolster Fuel Supply
Jun 2, 2026
On June 2, 2026, Petrobras reported that its board had approved joining a new federal economic subvention for producers and importers of road-use diesel in Brazil, set at R$1.12 per liter under Provisional Measure 1,363 of May 30, 2026. The progra...
Petrobras Inks R$ 60 Billion FPSO Deals to Launch Sergipe Deepwater Hub
May 29, 2026
On May 29, 2026, Petrobras signed contracts with SBM Offshore to design, build, operate and later transfer two FPSO production units for its Sergipe Deepwater (SEAP) project, in a deal structured under a Build, Operate and Transfer model. Petrobra...
Petrobras to Fully Redeem $670 Million of 7.375% Global Notes Due 2027 in June
May 28, 2026
On May 28, 2026, Petrobras announced that its financing arm Petrobras Global Finance B.V. has notified investors it will redeem in full the outstanding 7.375% Global Notes due 2027, totaling $670,009,000 in principal. The redemption is scheduled f...
Petrobras Revamps Statutory Audit Committee, Names New Chair Effective July 2026
May 26, 2026
On May 25, 2026, Petrobras announced that its Board of Directors approved changes to the composition of its Statutory Audit Committee, reinforcing its governance structure. Independent board members Renato Campos Galuppo and Marcelo Gasparino da S...
Petrobras Q1 2026 Profit Rises on Strong Crude Exports and Higher Revenues
May 22, 2026
For the first quarter of 2026, Petrobras reported stronger consolidated results, with sales revenues rising 11.7% year-on-year to US$23.54 billion and net income attributable to shareholders increasing 3.8% to US$6.20 billion, supported by higher ...
Petrobras Files 2026 Reference Form with Brazilian Securities Regulator
May 22, 2026
On May 22, 2026, Petrobras reported that it had filed its 2026 Reference Form with the Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission, covering the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025. The document, available in Portuguese on both the CVM and Petrob...
Petrobras Discloses GQG Partners Crossing 5% Ownership Threshold in Common Shares
May 22, 2026
On May 21, 2026, Petrobras disclosed that asset manager GQG Partners LLC had notified the company of an increase in its clients’ combined exposure to Petrobras common shares and ADRs. GQG’s client portfolio reached 187,199,112 common s...
Petrobras Closes 49.99% Stake in Lightsource bp Brazil, Deepening Solar Push
May 21, 2026
On May 20, 2026, Petrobras completed the acquisition of a 49.99% equity stake in Lightsource bp’s Brazilian subsidiaries, forming a joint venture with equal board representation to develop onshore renewable energy and storage projects in the...
Petrobras Joins New Brazilian Fuel Subsidy Program to Support Gasoline and Diesel Operations
May 21, 2026
On May 20, 2026, Petrobras’s board approved the company’s participation in a new federal economic subvention program for producers and importers of petroleum-derived fuels, created under Provisional Measure 1,358 of May 13, 2026. The m...
Petrobras Pays R$72.4 Billion in Taxes and Government Take in First Quarter of 2026
May 19, 2026
Petrobras reported that in the first quarter of 2026 it paid a total of R$72.4 billion in taxes and government take to public authorities, including R$49.4 billion from its own operations, R$14.8 billion in government take and R$8.2 billion in tax...
Petrobras Details $13 Billion Energy Transition Push and 2050 Net-Zero Ambition in 2025 Climate Report
May 14, 2026
Petrobras has released its 2025 Climate Change and Energy Transition Supplement, detailing how climate risks, emissions management, and transition opportunities are now central to its strategy and governance. The report aligns with international d...
Petrobras Sets May 20 Payout for 4Q 2025 Shareholder Remuneration
May 14, 2026
Petrobras announced in Rio de Janeiro on May 14, 2026 that it will pay the first installment of shareholder remuneration related to the fourth quarter of the 2025 fiscal year on May 20, 2026, based on the shareholder position as of April 22, 2026....
Petrobras Posts Higher Q1 2026 Revenue and Stronger Balance Sheet
May 12, 2026
Petrobras reported unaudited condensed consolidated interim financial statements for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, showing total assets of $238.7 billion, up from $222.3 billion at year-end 2025, driven mainly by higher property, plant and equ...
Petrobras Posts Higher Assets but Rising Short-Term Debt in Q1 2026 Interim Figures
May 12, 2026
Petrobras released its interim financial information for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, showing total parent-company assets of R$1.60 trillion, slightly higher than at December 31, 2025, with current assets and inventories rising alongside an i...
Petrobras Approves R$ 9.03 Billion Advance Remuneration to Shareholders for 2026
May 12, 2026
On May 11, 2026, Petrobras’ board approved shareholder remuneration of R$ 9.03 billion, equal to R$ 0.70097272 per outstanding common and preferred share, as an advance related to the 2026 fiscal year based on the March 31, 2026 balance shee...
Petrobras Posts 1Q26 Production Records and Secures R$44 Billion in Power Capacity Contracts
May 12, 2026
In the first quarter of 2026, Petrobras reported record operated production of 4.65 million barrels of oil equivalent per day and record own production in Brazil’s pre-salt layer of 2.66 million boed, supported by high refinery utilization a...
Petrobras Posts Strong 1Q26 Results on Record Output and Robust Cash Generation
May 12, 2026
Petrobras reported that in the first quarter of 2026 it delivered solid financial and operational performance, underpinned by record oil and gas production and stronger sales of domestically produced oil products. The company maintained robust pro...
Petrobras Retains Spot in Dow Jones Best-in-Class Sustainability Index
May 5, 2026
On May 4, 2026, Petrobras announced it was again selected for inclusion in the Dow Jones Best-in-Class World Index, part of SP Global’s Corporate Sustainability Assessment, marking its second consecutive year in the benchmark. The company pe...
Petrobras Secures ANP Approval for Sururu and Berbigão Production Split in Santos Basin
May 5, 2026
On April 30, 2026, Petrobras was notified by Brazil’s oil regulator ANP that Production Individualization Agreements for the Sururu and Berbigão shared reservoirs in the Santos Basin had been approved, with the accords taking effect on ...
Petrobras Ramps Up Búzios Output With Early Start of P-79 FPSO
May 1, 2026
On May 1, 2026, Petrobras started production from the P-79 FPSO at the Búzios field in the Santos Basin, bringing the unit onstream ahead of the company’s 2026–2030 business plan schedule. With capacity to process 180,000 barrels ...
Petrobras Sets New Production and Refining Records in First Quarter of 2026
May 1, 2026
In the first quarter of 2026, Petrobras reported record average production of oil, NGL and natural gas at 3.23 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, up 3.7% from the previous quarter and 16.1% from the same period in 2025, driven by ramp̴...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.