Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras (PBR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $78.36B
• Dividend Yield: 25.78%
• Average Volume (3M): 23.58M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.15
• Revenue Growth: -10.84%
• EPS Growth: -61.73%
• Country: US
• Employees: 41,778
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: Oil & Gas Integrated
• EPS (TTM): 0.95
• Shares Outstanding: 3,721,115,700
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 23,759,050
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 23,582,441
• PEG Ratio: 0.03
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.22
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 3.85
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.80
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.37
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.19
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 1.03
• 1Y Price Target: $14.16
• Price Target Upside: 10.37% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7

• Rating: 77 Outperform
• Price Target: $13.50 ▲(5.22%Upside)

Petrobras scores well due to strong financial performance and attractive valuation, supported by significant cash flow and profitability. Technical analysis shows mixed signals, while the earnings call highlights both strengths in production and exploration, and challenges with declining oil prices and debt management.

Positive Factors

Production Growth

The ramp-up of new platforms is expected to contribute to PBR's output growth target, offering potential upside to production levels.

Risk/Reward Profile

Cost-cutting measures and a focus on capital discipline improve the risk/reward profile for PBR, highlighting management's proactive approach to navigating lower oil prices.

Negative Factors

Capex Overspend

PBR closed the year with a capex figure significantly above the revised guidance, which could be received negatively by the market.

Dividend Expectation

Petrobras announced a lower-than-expected dividend for 4Q24, which implies a yield well below expectations.

Financial Performance

4Q24 adjusted EBITDA came in 6% below consensus, with the Upstream segment underperforming.

Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras explores for, produces, and sells oil and gas in Brazil and internationally. The company operates through Exploration and Production; Refining, Transportation and Marketing; Gas and Power; and Corporate and Other Businesses segments. It engages in prospecting, drilling, refining, processing, trading, and transporting crude oil from producing onshore and offshore oil fields, and shale or other rocks, as well as oil products, natural gas, and other liquid hydrocarbons. The Exploration and Production segment explores, develops, and produces crude oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas primarily for supplies to the domestic refineries. The Refining, Transportation and Marketing segment engages in the refining, logistics, transport, marketing, and trading of crude oil and oil products; exportation of ethanol; and extraction and processing of shale, as well as holding interests in petrochemical companies. The Gas and Power segment is involved in the logistic and trading of natural gas and electricity; transportation and trading of LNG; generation of electricity through thermoelectric power plants; holding interests in transportation and distribution of natural gas; and fertilizer production and natural gas processing business. The Corporate and Other Businesses segment produces biodiesel and its co-products, and ethanol; and distributes oil products. Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras was incorporated in 1953 and is headquartered in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

How the Company Makes Money

Petrobras primarily generates revenue through the exploration, production, and sale of crude oil and natural gas. The company is heavily involved in the upstream segment, where it explores and extracts oil and gas from reserves, particularly in offshore fields. In the downstream sector, Petrobras refines crude oil into various petroleum products, which are then marketed and distributed to consumers and industries. The company also engages in the petrochemicals sector, producing and selling chemicals derived from oil and gas. Additionally, Petrobras generates income from its electricity generation and distribution operations. The company's revenue is significantly influenced by global oil prices, exploration success, production levels, and its refining capacity. Strategic partnerships and joint ventures with other energy companies also play a crucial role in enhancing its operations and revenue potential.

Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Petrobras demonstrates strong profitability and efficient cash flow generation, though faces challenges with declining revenue growth and reduced return on equity. Overall, it remains financially stable with moderate leverage.

Income Statement

Petrobras has shown strong profitability with a gross profit margin of 49.7% and an EBIT margin of 26.8% in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), indicating operational efficiency. However, the revenue growth rate has been negative over the past year, suggesting a contraction in top-line performance. Despite this, the net profit margin remains robust at 9.8%, showcasing effective cost control and profitability.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.94, indicating moderate leverage. The equity ratio stands at 34.5%, which underscores strong equity financing. However, the return on equity has decreased to 12.7% in the TTM, suggesting reduced efficiency in generating profits from shareholders' equity.

Cash Flow

Petrobras has demonstrated strong cash flow generation with an operating cash flow to net income ratio of 4.24, indicating efficient cash generation from operations. Free cash flow remains positive, though it has declined compared to previous periods. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 2.41 reflects solid ability to generate cash relative to net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	88.72B	91.42B	102.41B	124.47B	83.97B	53.68B
Gross Profit	44.10B	45.97B	53.97B	64.99B	40.80B	24.49B
EBITDA	29.46B	25.52B	52.30B	70.05B	44.90B	16.99B
Net Income	8.72B	6.79B	24.88B	36.62B	19.88B	1.14B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	199.87B	181.65B	217.07B	187.19B	174.35B	190.01B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	7.67B	7.53B	15.55B	10.77B	11.12B	12.37B
Total Debt	64.49B	60.31B	62.60B	53.80B	58.74B	75.54B
Total Liabilities	130.63B	122.30B	138.09B	117.36B	104.54B	130.13B
Stockholders Equity	68.93B	59.11B	78.58B	69.49B	69.41B	59.35B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	21.04B	23.34B	31.10B	40.14B	31.47B	23.02B
Operating Cash Flow	37.01B	37.98B	43.21B	49.72B	37.79B	28.89B
Investing Cash Flow	-11.81B	-13.37B	-7.96B	-432.00M	2.16B	-4.51B
Financing Cash Flow	-31.35B	-33.09B	-30.70B	-51.45B	-40.79B	-19.26B

Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 12.83
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PBR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 12.83 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.47, above the 50-day MA of 11.83, and above the 200-day MA of 12.50, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.29 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.31 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 77.12 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PBR.

Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PBR	77 Outperform	$78.36B	9.76	11.25%	25.78%	-10.84%	-61.73%
TTE	73 Outperform	$139.18B	10.29	11.75%	4.53%	-9.86%	-32.59%
SHEL	72 Outperform	$210.81B	14.08	7.40%	3.98%	―	―
EQNR	70 Outperform	$64.81B	8.09	18.28%	5.76%	3.96%	-1.69%
E	65 Neutral	$49.50B	18.25	4.78%	3.43%	-2.17%	-25.00%
BP	57 Neutral	$78.77B	186.20	-1.84%	6.14%	-7.70%	-113.83%
Sector *	52 Neutral	C$2.90B	-1.06	-3.16%	6.06%	3.01%	-47.13%