Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras (PBR)
NYSE:PBR
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Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras
(NYSE:PBR)
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Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
$24.50
▲(13.90% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/11/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (strong margins and cash generation, though cyclical and less robust than peak years) and strong technical trend signals despite overbought momentum risk. Valuation is a major positive with a very low P/E and high dividend yield, while the earnings call supports the outlook via operational execution but flags key risks from oil-price exposure (no hedging) and elevated debt/leasing obligations.
Positive Factors
Production Growth
Sustained double-digit production growth from pre-salt ramp-ups materially strengthens Petrobras's core cash-generating engine. Lower decline rates and accelerated FPSO tie-ins improve long-term volume visibility and unit-cost dilution, supporting durable operating leverage across commodity cycles.
Negative Factors
High Debt & Lease Burden
Material gross debt and large lease liabilities concentrate fixed obligations and raise financial rigidity, constraining flexibility for cyclic downturns. Significant leasing exposure links balance-sheet volatility to capital-intensive offshore projects and increases refinancing and interest-rate risks over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Production Growth
Sustained double-digit production growth from pre-salt ramp-ups materially strengthens Petrobras's core cash-generating engine. Lower decline rates and accelerated FPSO tie-ins improve long-term volume visibility and unit-cost dilution, supporting durable operating leverage across commodity cycles.
Read all positive factors
Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras (PBR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$132.28B
Dividend Yield14.1%
Average Volume (3M)36.40M
Price to Earnings (P/E)3.8
Beta (1Y)-0.06
Revenue Growth-11.63%
EPS Growth-15.67%
CountryUS
Employees41,778
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Integrated
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.47
Shares Outstanding3,721,115,700
10 Day Avg. Volume32,880,862
30 Day Avg. Volume36,399,363
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.02
Price to Book (P/B)1.01
Price to Sales (P/S)0.84
P/FCF Ratio4.57
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.43
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.09
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.38
Enterprise Value/Ebitda4.41
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$20.31Price Target Upside-5.58% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)3.31
Revenue Forecast (FY)$105.20B
Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras explores for, produces, and sells oil and gas in Brazil and internationally. The company operates through Exploration and Production; Refining, Transportation and Marketing; Gas and Power; and Corporate and Oth...
How the Company Makes Money
Petrobras primarily makes money by producing hydrocarbons and selling crude oil, natural gas, and refined products, with earnings influenced by production volumes, realized commodity prices, product spreads, operating costs, and exchange rates.
1...
Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong operational execution and financial resilience — record production growth (+11% YoY), major pre‑salt milestones, robust EBITDA (~$42.5bn) and operating cash flow ($36bn) despite a 14% decline in Brent. The company also highlighted meaningful reserve additions (1.7 billion barrels, 175% replacement), heavy E&P investment, and progress in low‑carbon fuels. Key risks noted were macro price volatility, lack of a hedging strategy, sizeable gross debt/leasing exposure, and pending transactions/exploratory uncertainties (Braskem approval, equatorial margin results). Overall, positive operational momentum and disciplined capital allocation were judged to outweigh the external and transactional uncertainties.Positive Updates
Strong Production Growth
Total oil production increased 11% in 2025 versus 2024, driven by pre-salt ramp-ups and operational efficiency improvements (decline rates reduced from ~12% to ~4%), with efficiency gains contributing ~100,000 barrels/day equivalent.
Negative Updates
Oil Price Decline and Volatility
Average Brent fell to $69/bbl in 2025 (-14% YoY). Continued geopolitical volatility (Middle East conflict) creates price uncertainty and short‑term market disruptions that require daily re‑planning.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Production Growth
Total oil production increased 11% in 2025 versus 2024, driven by pre-salt ramp-ups and operational efficiency improvements (decline rates reduced from ~12% to ~4%), with efficiency gains contributing ~100,000 barrels/day equivalent.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The management reiterated clear guidance built on three pillars—capital discipline, higher production and greater efficiency—backed by concrete 2025 metrics and short‑term targets: production rose 11% y/y, pre‑salt output delivered record platforms (Buzios, Atapu and Sépia each >1.0 million bpd), Q4 exports averaged 999,000 bpd (675,000 bpd for the year), domestic by‑product sales were 1,747,000 bpd (+1.43% y/y) with diesel sales +5.2% and QAV +6%, refinery utilization ~91–92% (68–70% higher‑value diesel/gasoline/QAV), reserve additions of 1.7 billion barrels (reserve replacement 175%), adjusted EBITDA ~$42.5bn ($43.8bn incl. events), operating cash flow ~$36bn, net income ~$19.6bn (adjusted), gross debt $69.8bn (62% leasing), 2025 CapEx >$20bn (+22%) with ~84% to E&P (~$17bn), Boaventura gas processing at 21 million m3/day and 6.6 million m3/day contracted inflexibly—while reiterating no price hedging, a policy of not passing volatility into domestic prices, possible extraordinary payouts only after protecting planned CapEx (Board approved BRL 8.1bn / BRL 0.62 per share this quarter; BRL 45bn distributed in the year), and ongoing ramp‑ups/anticipations (P‑78/P‑79 ramp‑up focus; P‑80/82/83 sailaways in 2026–27) to sustain cash generation and resilience even with a $69/bbl average Brent in 2025 (‑14% vs 2024).Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 90.81B | 91.42B | 105.54B | 124.47B | 83.97B |
| Gross Profit | 43.25B | 45.97B | 55.64B | 64.99B | 40.80B |
| EBITDA | 43.02B | 27.46B | 50.92B | 69.93B | 44.90B |
| Net Income | 20.10B | 7.53B | 25.69B | 36.62B | 19.88B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 223.28B | 181.65B | 217.07B | 187.19B | 174.35B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 9.24B | 7.53B | 15.55B | 10.77B | 11.12B |
| Total Debt | 70.09B | 60.31B | 62.60B | 53.80B | 58.74B |
| Total Liabilities | 147.07B | 122.30B | 138.09B | 117.36B | 104.54B |
| Stockholders Equity | 75.88B | 59.11B | 78.58B | 69.49B | 69.41B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 16.72B | 23.34B | 31.10B | 40.14B | 31.47B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 36.56B | 37.98B | 43.21B | 49.72B | 37.79B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -15.72B | -13.37B | -7.96B | -432.00M | 2.16B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -17.73B | -33.09B | -30.70B | -51.45B | -40.79B |
Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras Technical Analysis
Positive
21.51
Price Trends
17.77
Positive
15.05
Positive
13.52
Positive
Market Momentum
0.93
Positive
68.56
Neutral
68.65
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PBR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 21.51 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 20.07, above the 50-day MA of 17.77, and above the 200-day MA of 13.52, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.93 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 68.56 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 68.65 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PBR.
Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $132.28B | 3.80 | 27.02% | 14.10% | -11.63% | -15.67% | |
71 Outperform | $256.97B | 12.77 | 10.06% | 3.92% | -6.96% | 0.03% | |
66 Neutral | $97.81B | 12.11 | 3.44% | 7.43% | 1.53% | -35.81% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
62 Neutral | $81.86B | 19.50 | 5.20% | 5.41% | -3.84% | 15.75% | |
60 Neutral | $118.87B | 1,640.39 | 0.10% | 5.62% | -4.11% | -37.59% |
* Energy Sector Average
PBR
Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras
21.51
10.93
103.35%
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Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras Corporate Events
Petrobras Moves to Regain Full Control of Tartaruga Verde and Espadarte Module III
Apr 9, 2026
On April 9, 2026, Petrobras signed contracts with Petronas Petróleo Brasil to acquire the remaining 50% stakes in the Tartaruga Verde field and Module III of the Espadarte field in the Campos Basin, restoring its 100% ownership and operatorsh...
Petrobras Files 2025 Form 20-F With U.S. SEC
Apr 9, 2026
On April 8, 2026, Petrobras announced that it had filed its 2025 Annual Report on Form 20-F with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, covering the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025. The filing makes the company’s audited financial ...
Petrobras Overhauls Senior Leadership in Logistics and Energy Transition
Apr 7, 2026
On April 6, 2026, Petrobras’ board approved the early termination, with immediate effect, of Claudio Romeo Schlosser’s term as Chief Logistics, Commercialization and Markets Officer, signaling a swift shake-up in a key commercial and s...
Petrobras Board Elects Marcelo Weick Pogliese as New Chairman
Apr 7, 2026
On April 6, 2026, Petrobras reported that its Board of Directors elected Director Marcelo Weick Pogliese as Chairman of the Board, following a prior material fact disclosed on March 31, 2026. The appointment, made under the company’s bylaws ...
Petrobras Controlling Shareholder Nominates Guilherme Mello to Chair Board
Apr 7, 2026
On April 6, 2026, Petrobras disclosed that the Brazilian federal government, its controlling shareholder, has nominated economist Guilherme Santos Mello to join the company’s Board of Directors, replacing Bruno Moretti. The government has al...
Petrobras Publishes Candidate Details for Board of Directors and Fiscal Council
Apr 2, 2026
On April 2, 2026, Petrobras reported that detailed information and resumes for candidates to its Board of Directors and Fiscal Council have been made available to investors in accordance with Brazilian securities regulations. The company added tha...
Petrobras Finalizes Tupi Reservoir Redetermination with R$ 3 Billion Settlement
Apr 2, 2026
Petrobras, the operator of the Tupi Shared Reservoir in Brazil’s Santos Basin, has slightly increased its participation in the asset from 67.216% to 67.457% following approval of the Fourth Addendum to the Production Individualization Agreem...
Petrobras Chairman Resigns After Appointment as Brazil’s Planning Minister
Apr 1, 2026
On March 31, 2026, Petrobras disclosed that Bruno Moretti resigned with immediate effect as chairman and member of its Board of Directors following his appointment as Brazil’s Minister of Planning and Budget. The sudden change removes a key ...
Petrobras Announces New Pre-Salt Oil Discovery in Campos Basin’s Marlim Sul Field
Mar 26, 2026
On March 26, 2026, Petrobras reported a new discovery of excellent-quality oil in the pre-salt layer of the Campos Basin, identified through exploration well 3-BRSA-1397-RJS in the Marlim Sul Field, 113 kilometers offshore from Campos dos Goytacaz...
Petrobras Discloses 2026 Board and Fiscal Council Slates from State and Minority Investors
Mar 24, 2026
On March 23, 2026, Petrobras reported the slate of nominees put forward by its controlling shareholder and various minority investor groups for seats on the company’s Board of Directors and Fiscal Council, ahead of the 2026 Shareholders̵...
Petrobras Wins 2.2 GW in Brazil’s 2026 Capacity Reserve Auction
Mar 19, 2026
On March 18, 2026 in Rio de Janeiro, Petrobras reported it had secured contracts for eight thermoelectric plants in Brazil’s 2026 Capacity Reserve Auction, totaling 2,235 MW of firm capacity for the National Interconnected System. The contra...
Petrobras Confirms New Offshore Gas Discovery in Colombia’s GUA-OFF-0 Block
Mar 18, 2026
On March 18, 2026, Petrobras announced a new natural gas discovery at the Copoazu-1 exploratory well in deep waters offshore Colombia’s Block GUA-OFF-0, about 36 kilometers from the coast. The well, operated via its Colombian branch PIB-COL ...
Petrobras to Reacquire Full Control of Tartaruga Verde and Espadarte Module III
Mar 17, 2026
On March 16, 2026, Petrobras announced it has exercised its preemptive right to acquire Petronas Petróleo Brasil’s 50% stakes in the Tartaruga Verde field and Module III of the Espadarte field in the Campos Basin, restoring Petrobras to...
Petrobras Discloses Board and Fiscal Council Slates Ahead of 2026 Shareholders’ Meeting
Mar 17, 2026
On March 16, 2026, Petrobras reported that Brazil’s federal government, as controlling shareholder, has nominated eight candidates to its Board of Directors, largely reappointing existing members and proposing Bruno Moretti to remain as chai...
Petrobras Updates Second 2025 Shareholder Payout with Selic Adjustment
Mar 16, 2026
On March 16, 2026, Petrobras announced details for the second installment of shareholder remuneration tied to the 2025 fiscal year, based on the September 30, 2025 balance sheet and shareholder position as of December 22, 2025. The payment, schedu...
Petrobras Sets April 16, 2026 Annual Meeting to Decide Governance, Capital Allocation
Mar 16, 2026
Petrobras has called its Annual General Meeting for April 16, 2026, at 2 p.m. Brasília time, to be held in a partially digital format allowing both in-person attendance in Rio de Janeiro and remote participation via digital platform or distan...
Petrobras Joins Brazil’s New Diesel Economic Subvention Program
Mar 13, 2026
On March 12, 2026, Petrobras’ board approved the company’s adherence to Brazil’s new economic subvention program for the commercialization of road diesel oil, created under Provisional Measure No. 1,340 on the same date. The comp...
Petrobras Highlights R$277.6 Billion Tax and Royalty Contribution in Brazil for 2025
Mar 12, 2026
Petrobras reported that in 2025 it paid R$277.6 billion in taxes and government take in Brazil, a 3% increase over the prior year, alongside US$448.65 million in taxes abroad and the approval of R$47.5 billion in dividends, of which R$45.2 billion...
Petrobras Reports 2025 Year-End Financial Position in March 2026 SEC Filing
Mar 6, 2026
Petrobras has filed its March 2026 Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, providing audited consolidated and parent-company financial statements as of December 31, 2025 and 2024. The filing details the company’s statement...
Petrobras Posts Stronger 2025 Balance Sheet Despite Revenue Decline
Mar 6, 2026
Petrobras reported consolidated financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2025, showing total assets of $222.3 billion, up from $181.6 billion at year-end 2024, driven mainly by higher property, plant and equipment and larger judicial d...
Petrobras Board Proposes R$ 41.2 Billion Shareholder Payout for 2025
Mar 6, 2026
On March 5, 2026, Petrobras’ board approved a proposal to submit to the April 16, 2026 Annual General Meeting a distribution of R$ 8.1 billion in shareholder remuneration for the fourth quarter of 2025, bringing total 2025 payouts to R$ 41.2...
Petrobras Posts Record 2025 Production and Reserves Despite Lower Oil Prices
Mar 6, 2026
In 2025, Petrobras delivered record oil and gas production in Brazil, exceeding its annual target and achieving new highs at key pre-salt fields such as Búzios and Mero, despite lower Brent prices and a slight decline in operating cash flow. ...
Petrobras Posts Strong 2025 Cash Flow on Higher Output Despite Lower Brent Prices
Mar 6, 2026
In 2025, Petrobras delivered resilient financial performance in a weaker oil-price environment, with Brent down 14% versus 2024, supported by an 11% increase in total oil and gas production and higher operational efficiency in ultra-deepwater asse...
Petrobras Unveils 2026 Board and Fiscal Council Slates From State and Minority Shareholders
Mar 5, 2026
On March 4, 2026, Petrobras reported that Brazil’s federal government, its controlling shareholder, has nominated eight candidates for its Board of Directors and six for its Fiscal Council ahead of the 2026 Shareholders’ General Meetin...
Petrobras Schedules March 6 Webcast for Fourth-Quarter 2025 Results
Feb 25, 2026
On February 25, 2026, Petrobras announced it would present its financial results for the fourth quarter of 2025 in a webcast scheduled for March 6, 2026. The presentation, aimed at investors and the broader market, will be conducted in Portuguese ...
Petrobras Declines Preemptive and Tag-Along Rights in Braskem Share Transaction
Feb 12, 2026
On February 11, 2026, Petrobras’ Board of Directors reviewed a potential transaction involving the transfer of Braskem S.A. shares held by NSP Investimentos, a Novonor subsidiary, to Shine I Fundo de Investimento em Direitos Creditórios...
Petrobras Updates 3Q25 Shareholder Payout, Sets February 20 Payment
Feb 12, 2026
On February 12, 2026, Petrobras announced details of the monetary update to the first installment of shareholder remuneration tied to the 2025 fiscal year, based on the September 30, 2025 balance sheet and shareholder position as of December 22, 2...
Petrobras Lifts 2025 Output and Export Records as P-78 Delivers First Oil in Búzios
Feb 11, 2026
In 2025, Petrobras’ total oil and natural gas production rose 11% year on year to 2.99 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, surpassing its guidance range, driven by higher capacity and efficiency in pre-salt FPSOs such as Almirante Tam...
Petrobras Receives R$1.65 Billion Earnout From Sépia and Atapu Partners for 2025
Feb 6, 2026
On February 6, 2026, Petrobras reported it had received R$ 1.65 billion in earnout payments from its partners in the Sépia and Atapu pre-salt fields, including TotalEnergies, PETRONAS, QatarEnergy and Shell, relating to additional compensatio...
Petrobras Returns to Namibia With 42.5% Stake in Offshore Block 2613
Feb 6, 2026
On February 6, 2026, Petrobras announced it had acquired a 42.5% stake in offshore Block 2613 in Namibia’s Lüderitz Basin, alongside partner TotalEnergies, which also took 42.5% and will operate the block, while Namcor holds 10% and Eig...
Petrobras Sets February–March Schedule to Release 4Q25 Results
Feb 4, 2026
On February 4, 2026, Petrobras announced its schedule for disclosing fourth-quarter 2025 performance, stating that it will publish its 4Q25 Production and Sales Report on February 10, 2026, and its 4Q25 Financial Results on March 5, 2026, both aft...
Petrobras Lifts 2025 Proved Reserves to 12.1 Billion Barrels of Oil Equivalent
Jan 28, 2026
On January 28, 2026, Petrobras reported that its proved reserves of oil, condensate and natural gas under SEC criteria reached 12.1 billion barrels of oil equivalent as of December 31, 2025, with oil and condensate accounting for 84% of the total ...
Petrobras Sets Record 2025 Output, Beating Production Targets on Pre-Salt Strength
Jan 16, 2026
In 2025, Petrobras’ oil production averaged 2.40 million barrels per day, surpassing the upper limit of its 2025 guidance by 0.5 percentage points and marking an 11% increase on 2024 levels. Total oil and natural gas output reached 2.99 mill...
Petrobras Sets Date for 2026 Annual General Meeting on April 16
Jan 14, 2026
On January 13, 2026, Petrobras announced that its 2026 Annual General Meeting is scheduled to be held on April 16, 2026, in line with the company’s Annual Corporate Events Calendar. The specific time, location, and format of the meeting will...
Glossary
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Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.