Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras (PBR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $78.12B
• Dividend Yield: 8.16%
• Average Volume (3M): 22.18M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.16
• Revenue Growth: -10.84%
• EPS Growth: -61.73%
• Country: US
• Employees: 41,778
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 67
• Industry: Oil & Gas Integrated
• EPS (TTM): 0.95
• Shares Outstanding: 3,721,115,700
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 27,170,668
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 22,184,911
• PEG Ratio: 2.25
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.84
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 122.09
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 3.68
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.76
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.52
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 2.10
• 1Y Price Target: $13.93
• Price Target Upside: 9.69% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6

• Rating: 75 Outperform
• Price Target: $13.50 ▲(6.30%Upside)

Petrobras scores well due to strong financial performance and attractive valuation, supported by significant cash flow and profitability. Technical analysis shows mixed signals, while the earnings call highlights both strengths in production and exploration, and challenges with declining oil prices and debt management.

Positive Factors

Corporate Governance

The decision to hike diesel prices showcases improvement on the corporate governance front.

Production Growth

The ramp-up of new platforms is expected to contribute to PBR's output growth target, offering potential upside to production levels.

Valuation Opportunity

PBR's shares are trading at a significant discount compared to global peers, presenting an opportunity for re-rating and making the stock more attractive.

Negative Factors

Dividend Concerns

Petrobras announced a lower-than-expected dividend for 4Q24, which implies a yield well below expectations.

Financial Performance

4Q24 adjusted EBITDA came in 6% below consensus, with the Upstream segment underperforming.

Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Petroleo Brasileiro SA, commonly known as Petrobras, is a Brazilian multinational corporation in the energy industry, primarily engaged in the exploration, production, refining, and distribution of oil, natural gas, and their derivatives. Headquartered in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, the company is a major player in the global energy sector and operates in various segments including upstream, downstream, and renewable energy. With a significant presence in Brazil and operations in several other countries, Petrobras is one of the largest producers of oil and gas in the world.

How the Company Makes Money

Petrobras generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily centered around its core operations in the oil and gas industry. The company's upstream operations, which involve the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas, are a significant source of revenue. This segment benefits from Petrobras's extensive reserves and technological capabilities in deepwater drilling. The downstream segment, which includes refining, marketing, and distribution of petroleum products, also contributes to its earnings. Petrobras owns and operates refineries that process crude oil into various products such as gasoline, diesel, and petrochemicals, which are then marketed and sold. Additionally, Petrobras is involved in the production and sale of biofuels and other renewable energy solutions, aligning with global trends towards sustainable energy. Furthermore, strategic partnerships and joint ventures, both domestic and international, enhance its operational capabilities and market reach, supporting its financial performance.

Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Petrobras demonstrates strong profitability and efficient cash flow generation, though faces challenges with declining revenue growth and reduced return on equity. Overall, it remains financially stable with moderate leverage.

Income Statement

Petrobras has shown strong profitability with a gross profit margin of 49.7% and an EBIT margin of 26.8% in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), indicating operational efficiency. However, the revenue growth rate has been negative over the past year, suggesting a contraction in top-line performance. Despite this, the net profit margin remains robust at 9.8%, showcasing effective cost control and profitability.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.94, indicating moderate leverage. The equity ratio stands at 34.5%, which underscores strong equity financing. However, the return on equity has decreased to 12.7% in the TTM, suggesting reduced efficiency in generating profits from shareholders' equity.

Cash Flow

Petrobras has demonstrated strong cash flow generation with an operating cash flow to net income ratio of 4.24, indicating efficient cash generation from operations. Free cash flow remains positive, though it has declined compared to previous periods. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 2.41 reflects solid ability to generate cash relative to net income.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
88.72B	91.42B	102.41B	124.47B	83.97B	53.68B
	Gross Profit
44.10B	45.97B	53.97B	64.99B	40.80B	24.49B
	EBIT
23.78B	25.69B	39.27B	53.26B	31.00B	20.05B
	EBITDA
29.46B	25.52B	52.30B	70.05B	44.90B	16.99B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
8.72B	6.79B	24.88B	36.62B	19.88B	1.14B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
7.67B	7.53B	15.55B	10.77B	11.12B	12.37B
	Total Assets
199.87B	181.65B	217.07B	187.19B	174.35B	190.01B
	Total Debt
64.49B	60.31B	62.60B	53.80B	58.74B	75.54B
	Net Debt
59.80B	57.04B	49.87B	45.80B	48.28B	63.83B
	Total Liabilities
130.63B	122.30B	138.09B	117.36B	104.54B	130.13B
	Stockholders Equity
68.93B	59.11B	78.58B	69.49B	69.41B	59.35B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
21.04B	23.34B	31.10B	40.14B	31.47B	23.02B
	Operating Cash Flow
37.01B	37.98B	43.21B	49.72B	37.79B	28.89B
	Investing Cash Flow
-11.81B	-13.37B	-7.96B	-432.00M	2.16B	-4.51B
	Financing Cash Flow
-31.35B	-33.09B	-30.70B	-51.45B	-40.79B	-19.26B

Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 12.70
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PBR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 12.7 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.60, above the 50-day MA of 11.45, and above the 200-day MA of 12.55, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.14 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 71.31 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 96.82 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PBR.

Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TTE	78 Outperform	$133.55B	10.42	11.75%	5.24%	-9.86%	-32.59%
SHEL	76 Outperform	$210.76B	16.62	7.40%	3.95%	-2.62%	-20.13%
PBR	75 Outperform	$78.12B	9.66	11.25%	8.16%	-10.84%	-61.73%
E	73 Outperform	$49.15B	18.27	4.78%	3.45%	-2.17%	-25.00%
EQNR	73 Outperform	$75.39B	8.74	18.28%	5.33%	3.96%	-1.69%
BP	68 Neutral	$81.64B	186.20	-1.87%	5.99%	-7.70%	-113.83%
Sector *	58 Neutral	$7.57B	3.50	-4.45%	10.15%	0.79%	-49.51%