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Shell (SHEL)
NYSE:SHEL

Shell (SHEL) AI Stock Analysis

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Shell

(NYSE:SHEL)

Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
$75.00
▲(4.28%Upside)
Shell's overall stock score reflects solid financial performance supported by strong cash flow and profitability. The company's strategic initiatives and robust shareholder returns contribute positively. While technical indicators suggest stability, valuation metrics align well with industry standards. The earnings call underscores growth and resilience, despite macroeconomic challenges, making Shell a solid candidate for investment in the oil and gas sector.
Positive Factors
Financial Strength
SHEL is viewed as the strongest Euro IOC due to its strong balance sheet and underlying growth.
Shareholder Returns
SHEL can maintain an $11B - $12B annual buyback in the current environment given its nearly $40B cash balance.
Negative Factors
Commodity Price Impact
A reduction in near-term earnings from commodity changes leads to a lower price target.
Operational Challenges
2Q Upstream production was guided lower than expected.

Shell (SHEL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Shell Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionShell (SHEL), also known as Royal Dutch Shell, is one of the world’s largest integrated energy companies. It operates across various sectors, including oil and gas exploration, production, refining, distribution, and marketing. Shell is also heavily invested in renewable energy and new energy solutions, including wind, solar, and electric vehicle charging. The company provides a wide range of energy products and services, including fuel for transportation, energy for industrial use, and chemicals used in various applications worldwide.
How the Company Makes MoneyShell generates revenue through several key streams. The largest portion of its income comes from upstream operations, where the company explores for and extracts crude oil and natural gas. Once extracted, these resources are refined into various products such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, which are sold to consumers and businesses globally. Downstream operations, including refining and retailing, add significant revenue through the sale of these products. Additionally, Shell earns from its integrated gas and new energies segments, which involve the production and sale of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and investments in renewable energy sources. Strategic partnerships and joint ventures with other energy companies and technological investments also contribute to Shell's earnings, optimizing production efficiency and expanding its market reach.

Shell Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
LNG Sales Volume
LNG Sales Volume
Tracks the volume of liquefied natural gas sold, reflecting market demand, pricing power, and the company's strategic positioning in the global LNG market.
Chart InsightsShell's LNG sales volume has shown fluctuations, with recent stability around 16-17 million metric tons. The acquisition of Pavilion Energy and strategic divestments aim to bolster LNG capabilities, yet unplanned outages in Australia have impacted performance. Despite these challenges, Shell's robust earnings growth and strategic repositioning, including significant investments in carbon capture and the Gato do Mato project, suggest a focus on long-term resilience and growth. The $3.5 billion share buyback underscores confidence, though macroeconomic uncertainties remain a concern for future LNG sales momentum.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Shell Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 02, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 12.18%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects a positive sentiment overall, with strong earnings growth, strategic repositioning, and continued shareholder returns. However, challenges in certain segments and macroeconomic uncertainties were acknowledged.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Adjusted Earnings Increase
Adjusted earnings were $5.6 billion, up 52% compared with Q4.
Strong Cash Flow Generation
Generated $11.9 billion of cash flow from operations, excluding working capital.
Strategic Portfolio Repositioning
Completed divestments of the Energy and Chemicals Park in Singapore and onshore Nigeria. Acquired Pavilion Energy, enhancing LNG trading capabilities.
Significant Project Developments
Final investment decisions for Gato do Mato in Brazil and Phase 2 of Northern Lights carbon capture in Norway.
Shareholder Returns
Announced a $3.5 billion share buyback program, marking the 14th consecutive quarter with buybacks of at least $3 billion.
Negative Updates
Unplanned Outages in Australia
Liquefaction volumes were lower due to unplanned outages, affecting overall Integrated Gas performance.
Macroeconomic Uncertainty
Significant macro uncertainties noted, with potential impacts on financial performance moving forward.
Challenges in Low-Carbon Business
Continued operational difficulties in the low-carbon option businesses, impacted by a challenging macro environment.
Chemical Sector Weakness
Chemical margins remained low, despite divestment expectations in Singapore.
Company Guidance
In the first quarter of 2025, Shell reported adjusted earnings of $5.6 billion, a 52% increase from the previous quarter, and generated $11.9 billion in cash flow from operations, excluding a $2.7 billion working capital outflow. The company completed key portfolio actions, such as divesting from assets in Singapore and onshore Nigeria and acquiring Pavilion Energy to strengthen its LNG capabilities. Shell made significant investment decisions, including the Gato do Mato project in Brazil and the expansion of the Northern Lights carbon capture project in Norway. Operational milestones included the launch of the Penguins FPSO in the UK and the start of production at Dover in the Gulf of America. Despite macroeconomic uncertainties, Shell announced a $3.5 billion share buyback program, continuing its strategy of consistent shareholder distributions within a 40% to 50% range of cash flow from operations. The company remains focused on cost discipline, with future opportunities for cost savings and operational efficiencies expected to drive continued growth and resilience.

Shell Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Shell presents a solid financial performance across its financial statements. Despite facing revenue and net income fluctuations, the company maintains profitability and a stable capital structure with healthy leverage ratios. Strong cash flow generation supports its operational capabilities, positioning Shell well in the oil and gas industry.
Income Statement
78
Positive
Shell's income statement reflects a strong gross profit margin of 15.1% in the TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) with an EBIT margin of 9.7% and EBITDA margin of 19.5%. However, there is a notable decline in revenue growth from 2024 to TTM. The net profit margin stands at 4.8%, showing profitability but room for improvement. Overall, Shell maintains solid profitability despite fluctuations in revenue and net income.
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
The balance sheet shows a healthy debt-to-equity ratio of 0.43, indicating balanced leverage. The equity ratio is stable at 45.9%, reflecting a strong capital structure. Return on Equity (ROE) is relatively moderate at 7.6%, suggesting efficient use of equity capital. Shell demonstrates a stable financial position with manageable debt levels and a solid equity base.
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
Shell's cash flow is robust, with a solid operating cash flow to net income ratio of 3.75, indicating strong cash generation. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 2.31, underscoring effective cash flow management. However, there is a decline in free cash flow growth in the TTM period. Overall, Shell's cash flow position is strong, supporting ongoing operations and investments.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue281.07B284.31B316.62B381.31B261.50B180.54B
Gross Profit42.59B36.30B36.58B78.78B35.85B-12.99B
EBITDA54.83B58.49B68.55B86.60B56.51B2.22B
Net Income13.52B16.09B19.36B42.31B20.10B-21.68B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets389.25B387.61B406.27B443.02B404.38B379.27B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments35.60B39.11B38.77B40.25B36.97B31.83B
Total Debt76.51B77.14B81.64B83.80B89.09B108.01B
Total Liabilities208.58B207.44B217.91B250.43B229.05B220.73B
Stockholders Equity178.81B178.31B186.61B190.47B171.97B155.31B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow31.27B35.08B31.20B45.81B26.11B17.52B
Operating Cash Flow50.63B54.68B54.19B68.41B45.10B34.10B
Investing Cash Flow-15.59B-15.15B-17.73B-22.45B-4.76B-13.28B
Financing Cash Flow-39.37B-38.43B-38.23B-41.95B-34.66B-7.22B

Shell Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price71.92
Price Trends
50DMA
67.75
Positive
100DMA
67.22
Positive
200DMA
65.67
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
1.06
Positive
RSI
60.70
Neutral
STOCH
76.93
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SHEL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 71.92 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 70.76, above the 50-day MA of 67.75, and above the 200-day MA of 65.67, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 60.70 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.93 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SHEL.

Shell Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
CVCVX
82
Outperform
$259.11B17.0110.11%4.61%-1.05%-19.71%
TTTTE
78
Outperform
$140.30B10.2911.75%4.53%-9.86%-32.59%
XOXOM
77
Outperform
$483.54B14.8414.18%3.53%2.36%-7.18%
76
Outperform
$210.61B14.087.40%3.98%
PBPBR
75
Outperform
$79.74B9.9311.25%25.78%-10.84%-61.73%
68
Neutral
$15.14B9.956.38%5.21%4.16%-67.19%
BPBP
65
Neutral
$80.49B186.20-1.87%6.14%-7.70%-113.83%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
SHEL
Shell
71.92
2.14
3.07%
BP
BP
30.93
-3.50
-10.17%
CVX
Chevron
148.37
0.75
0.51%
XOM
Exxon Mobil
112.20
3.80
3.51%
PBR
Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras
13.06
-0.10
-0.76%
TTE
TotalEnergies
62.72
-3.87
-5.81%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: May 17, 2025