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Shell
(NYSE:SHEL)
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Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
$103.00
â–²(16.54% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/01/26
The score is driven primarily by improving financial performance with strong operating and free cash flow, supported by constructive trend positioning above key moving averages. Valuation strengthens the setup with a low P/E and solid dividend yield. Earnings-call takeaways are net positive on execution and shareholder returns, tempered by disruption, inflation, and multi-year execution/regulatory timing risks.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Sustained operating cash flow (~$49.1B TTM) and a sharply improved free cash flow (~$31.5B) provide durable financial flexibility. This supports recurring shareholder returns, disciplined CapEx, and the ability to fund high‑grading and buybacks through commodity cycles without stressing liquidity.
Negative Factors
Underperforming low‑carbon capital
A sizable portion of underperforming capital sits in low‑carbon businesses and is forecast to only deliver target returns over multiple years. This creates a structural drag on ROCE and requires sustained execution and additional capital discipline; failure to improve returns would weigh on long‑run profitability.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Sustained operating cash flow (~$49.1B TTM) and a sharply improved free cash flow (~$31.5B) provide durable financial flexibility. This supports recurring shareholder returns, disciplined CapEx, and the ability to fund high‑grading and buybacks through commodity cycles without stressing liquidity.
Read all positive factors
Shell Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
LNG Sales Volume
Tracks the volume of liquefied natural gas sold, reflecting market demand, pricing power, and the company's strategic positioning in the global LNG market.
Tracks the volume of liquefied natural gas sold, reflecting market demand, pricing power, and the company's strategic positioning in the global LNG market.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyShell (SHEL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$245.01B
Dividend Yield3.29%
Average Volume (3M)6.23M
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.8
Beta (1Y)0.12
Revenue Growth7.39%
EPS Growth103.04%
CountryUS
Employees84,000
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Integrated
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)9.14
Shares Outstanding2,777,193,400
10 Day Avg. Volume6,527,070
30 Day Avg. Volume6,225,306
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.64
Price to Book (P/B)1.24
Price to Sales (P/S)0.81
P/FCF Ratio9.05
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$104.28Price Target Upside17.99% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)10.89
Revenue Forecast (FY)$321.84B
Shell Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Shell plc, a distinguished energy and petrochemical corporation, is headquartered in London, United Kingdom, and was originally founded in 1907. Known as Royal Dutch Shell plc until its name change in January 2022, the company maintains a formidab...
How the Company Makes Money
Shell makes money by producing, transforming, trading, and selling energy and related products across multiple business lines.
1) Upstream (oil & gas production): Shell earns revenue from selling crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids pr...
Shell Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized a string of material operational and financial wins — record refinery utilization (102%), strong Integrated Gas performance with LNG Canada at full capacity, $9.8 billion adjusted earnings and >$21 billion cash from operations — alongside disciplined capital allocation (net debt reduction, $3 billion buyback, CapEx guidance). However, significant lowlights remain: Middle East supply disruptions (Qatar, Pearl GTL), inflationary pressure on project costs, underperforming low‑carbon capital that will take time to return >10%, partially delivered cost savings and regulatory/FID timing risk. Overall the positives — strong quarter, clear progress on high-grading, robust cash generation and explicit paths to production and free cash flow growth (ARC, potential LNG Canada Phase 2) — outweigh the challenges, though material execution and external risks remain.Positive Updates
Strong quarterly earnings and cash generation
Adjusted earnings of $9.8 billion in Q2 2026 and cash flow from operations of over $21 billion; management described this as the best results in over five years and referenced roughly $17 billion of free cash flow in the quarter.
Negative Updates
Middle East disruptions and lost Qatar volumes
Ongoing hostilities disrupted shipping (Strait) and led to lost LNG volumes from Qatar, creating short-term market tightness and requiring the trading organization and other portfolio volumes to compensate.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong quarterly earnings and cash generation
Adjusted earnings of $9.8 billion in Q2 2026 and cash flow from operations of over $21 billion; management described this as the best results in over five years and referenced roughly $17 billion of free cash flow in the quarter.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The management reiterated clear near‑term and medium‑term guidance, saying Q2 adjusted earnings were $9.8bn with >$21bn cash flow from operations, cash CapEx for 2026 guided at $24–26bn (including ~$4bn for the ARC acquisition), net debt cut to ~$42bn (~$12bn excluding leases) and a $3bn share buyback to be completed by the Q3 results; they remain committed to a 40–50% payout ratio through the cycle, have delivered $700m of structural cost reductions so far in 2026 (close to $6bn since 2022) and are halfway through a $5–7bn cost‑cutting target, are addressing ~$45bn of underperforming capital employed (including ~$15bn in low‑carbon capital they expect to drive to >10% returns by decade end), expect ARC to lift production growth to ~4% p.a. to 2030 and add ~ $1.5bn of annual free cash flow, noted LNG Canada is at full capacity after >100 cargoes and signaled LNG Canada Phase 2 FID is targeted before year‑end while other FIDs (Bonga SW, Zabazaba) are aimed at 2027–28, and flagged Trading & Supply ROACE of 2–4% (currently at the top end) and a record 102% refinery utilization in the quarter.Shell Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 296.60B | 266.89B | 284.31B | 316.62B | 381.31B | 261.50B |
| Gross Profit | 50.77B | 42.49B | 45.94B | 47.21B | 78.78B | 35.85B |
| EBITDA | 67.91B | 56.66B | 57.48B | 60.36B | 92.55B | 56.51B |
| Net Income | 25.97B | 17.84B | 16.09B | 19.36B | 42.31B | 20.10B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 380.51B | 370.35B | 387.61B | 406.27B | 443.02B | 404.38B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 31.37B | 30.22B | 39.11B | 38.77B | 40.25B | 36.97B |
| Total Debt | 73.08B | 104.58B | 77.14B | 81.64B | 83.80B | 89.09B |
| Total Liabilities | 198.73B | 195.03B | 207.44B | 217.91B | 250.43B | 229.05B |
| Stockholders Equity | 180.79B | 174.39B | 178.31B | 186.61B | 190.47B | 171.97B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 31.55B | 23.92B | 35.08B | 31.20B | 45.81B | 26.11B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 49.14B | 42.86B | 54.68B | 54.19B | 68.41B | 45.10B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -14.49B | -16.81B | -15.15B | -17.73B | -22.45B | -4.76B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -35.51B | -35.81B | -38.43B | -38.23B | -41.95B | -34.66B |
Shell Technical Analysis
Positive
88.38
Price Trends
84.35
Positive
86.37
Positive
80.67
Positive
Market Momentum
1.72
Positive
59.36
Neutral
51.80
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SHEL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 88.38 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 87.95, above the 50-day MA of 84.35, and above the 200-day MA of 80.67, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.72 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 59.36 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 51.80 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SHEL.
Shell Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $368.60B | 18.62 | 10.98% | 3.58% | 12.71% | 34.53% | |
75 Outperform | $245.01B | 9.75 | 14.66% | 3.35% | 7.39% | 103.04% | |
75 Outperform | $629.29B | 20.64 | 12.68% | 2.60% | 10.58% | 9.80% | |
66 Neutral | $93.70B | 11.02 | 21.61% | 3.72% | 6.81% | 21.88% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
58 Neutral | $107.97B | 20.56 | 5.52% | 4.56% | 15.86% | 793.07% |
* Energy Sector Average
SHEL
Shell
89.95
20.37
29.28%
BP
BP
42.88
10.54
32.58%
CVX
Chevron
194.91
45.32
30.30%
XOM
Exxon Mobil
159.79
56.94
55.36%
EQNR
Equinor ASA
40.99
17.64
75.52%
TTE
TotalEnergies SE
87.96
29.10
49.44%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.