Chevron (CVX) AI Stock Analysis

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Chevron

(NYSE:CVX)

Rating:75Outperform

Price Target:―

Chevron's overall stock score reflects its robust financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment, which are slightly offset by technical bearish trends and operational challenges. The company's strong dividend yield and reasonable valuation offer potential stability amid market uncertainties. However, strategic growth initiatives are crucial to address recent negative growth trends.

Positive Factors

Dividend Yield

Chevron is highlighted for its attractive long-term value and a 5% dividend yield.

Operational Efficiency

Chevron's strong earnings profile and cash flows, together with its efficient cost strategy core, are expected to continue in the future.

Project Developments

Chevron's strategic projects like TCO, Permian, and Gulf of America are expected to lead to a significant increase in volume and free cash flow.

Negative Factors

Earnings Estimate Revisions

Chevron's earnings estimates were revised downward reflecting higher Upstream DD&A and absence of previous tailwinds.

Market Risk

Chevron is exposed to heavy market risk as earnings depend on the price volatility of crude oil, natural gas and other refinery products.

Share Buybacks

Management noted market conditions are likely to result in share buybacks being at the lower end of the guidance range.

Chevron (CVX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$238.45B

Dividend Yield4.83%

Average Volume (3M)8.32M

Price to Earnings (P/E)15.7

Beta (1Y)0.55

Revenue Growth-1.05%

EPS Growth-19.71%

CountryUS

Employees45,298

SectorEnergy

Sector Strength45

IndustryOil & Gas Integrated

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)2.18

Shares Outstanding1,746,393,900

10 Day Avg. Volume7,795,833

30 Day Avg. Volume8,324,052

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-1.57

Price to Book (P/B)1.66

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio19.98

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.14

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.35

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.09

Enterprise Value/Ebitda1.51

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$159.50

Price Target Upside15.72% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering18

Chevron Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionChevron Corporation (CVX) is a leading integrated energy company headquartered in San Ramon, California. The company is involved in virtually every facet of the energy industry, including the exploration, production, and transportation of crude oil and natural gas; refining, marketing, and distribution of transportation fuels and lubricants; manufacturing and sale of petrochemicals and additives; and generation of power. Chevron operates in more than 180 countries and is committed to developing affordable, reliable, and cleaner energy solutions to improve the global standard of living.

How the Company Makes MoneyChevron makes money through a diversified revenue model that spans across several key sectors of the energy industry. The company's primary revenue streams include the upstream segment, which involves the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas, and the downstream segment, which focuses on refining, marketing, and distributing petroleum products. The upstream segment is a significant contributor to Chevron's earnings, driven by the sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. The downstream operations generate revenue through the sale of refined products such as gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and lubricants, as well as petrochemicals used in various industrial applications. Additionally, Chevron has interests in power generation and renewable energy projects, which are becoming increasingly important as the company seeks to diversify its energy portfolio and address climate change. Strategic partnerships and joint ventures with other energy companies and technology firms also play a crucial role in enhancing Chevron's operational capabilities and expanding its market presence.

Chevron Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Net Oil Production by Geography

Net Oil Production by Geography
Tracks oil output across various regions, indicating Chevron’s production capabilities, regional growth opportunities, and potential geopolitical risks.

Chart InsightsChevron's U.S. oil production has surged significantly since late 2023, driven by advancements in projects like the Ballymore in the Gulf of America. This growth contrasts with a steady decline in international production, highlighting a strategic pivot towards domestic and short-cycle assets. Despite challenges in Venezuela and currency impacts, Chevron's focus on cost savings and reduced CapEx is expected to support robust cash flow, aligning with its strategy to enhance shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

Chevron Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 02, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: 2.38%|

Next Earnings Date:Jul 25, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call highlighted Chevron's strong shareholder returns, advancements in major projects, and a reduction in CapEx. However, challenges such as Venezuelan operations, currency effects, and potential tariff impacts were noted. Overall, the sentiment leans towards positive due to the strong performance and financial resilience.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Shareholder Returns

Chevron returned $6.9 billion to shareholders through dividends and buybacks in Q1 2025, marking the 12th consecutive quarter of cash returns exceeding $5 billion.

Advancements in Major Projects

Chevron achieved first oil at the Ballymore project in the Gulf of America and reached nameplate capacity at TCO significantly ahead of schedule.

Reduction in CapEx and Structural Cost Savings

The 2025 CapEx budget represents a $2 billion reduction from the previous year, with targeted structural cost savings of $2 billion to $3 billion by the end of 2026.

Record Low Organic CapEx

Q1 2025 organic CapEx was $3.5 billion, marking the lowest quarterly total in two years.

Resilient Financial Position

Chevron maintains a strong balance sheet with a net debt ratio of 14%, well below the target range of 20% to 25%.

Negative Updates

Challenges with Venezuelan Operations

Operations in Venezuela have been impacted by recent OFAC sanctions, halting U.S. liftings.

Currency and Legal Challenges

Foreign currency effects decreased earnings by $138 million, and legal and tax charges were incurred totaling $175 million.

Potential Tariff Impacts

Chevron anticipates a potential 1% impact on the cost of shale wells due to ongoing tariff situations.

Company Guidance

During Chevron's First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, detailed guidance was provided on various metrics and strategic initiatives. Chevron returned $6.9 billion to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. The company reported earnings of $3.5 billion, or $2 per share, with adjusted earnings of $3.8 billion, or $2.18 per share. Organic capital expenditures (CapEx) were $3.5 billion, marking the lowest quarterly total in two years, while inorganic CapEx was around $400 million. The company generated $7.6 billion in cash flow from operations, excluding working capital. Chevron achieved a net debt ratio of 14%, below its target range of 20% to 25%. The company is on track to deliver an incremental $9 billion in free cash flow by 2026 at $60 Brent, with a focus on short-cycle assets and deepwater projects. Chevron's strategy includes a potential $2 billion to $3 billion in structural cost savings by the end of next year, and a $2 billion reduction in its 2025 CapEx and affiliate CapEx budgets compared to last year. The guidance also outlined plans for share repurchases of $2.5 billion to $3 billion in the second quarter, maintaining a guidance range for annual buybacks of $10 billion to $20 billion depending on market conditions.

Chevron Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Chevron exhibits strong profitability and efficient cash flow management. Despite a solid balance sheet with prudent leverage, recent negative growth trends in revenue and cash flow indicate challenges in sustaining growth. Overall, the company's financial foundation is strong but requires strategic growth initiatives.

Income Statement

Very Positive

Chevron's TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue stands at $198.34 billion with a Gross Profit Margin of 47.2% and a Net Profit Margin of 7.9%, indicating strong profitability. The EBIT Margin is robust at 28.5%, showing effective cost management. However, the recent Revenue Growth Rate is negative, suggesting the need for future growth strategies.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The Debt-to-Equity Ratio is 0.20, indicating a conservative leverage approach, which is a positive in a volatile industry. Return on Equity (ROE) at 10.5% shows decent shareholder returns. However, the Equity Ratio of 58.2% suggests a stable capital structure, but there is room for improvement in equity efficiencies.

Cash Flow

Very Positive

Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 1.57, reflecting strong cash generation relative to net income. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 0.79, indicating good free cash flow generation. The Free Cash Flow Growth Rate is negative, highlighting recent pressures on cash growth.

TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
194.44B	193.41B	196.91B	235.72B	155.61B	94.47B
	Gross Profit
53.54B	56.93B	60.39B	73.98B	45.43B	22.82B
	EBIT
11.12B	18.92B	26.23B	39.95B	16.18B	-6.10B
	EBITDA
43.57B	45.81B	45.63B	66.05B	40.28B	11.00B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
15.67B	17.66B	21.37B	35.47B	15.63B	-5.54B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
29.68B	6.79B	8.22B	17.90B	5.67B	5.63B
	Total Assets
256.40B	256.94B	261.63B	257.71B	239.53B	239.79B
	Total Debt
29.68B	24.54B	26.07B	23.34B	31.37B	44.31B
	Net Debt
25.04B	17.76B	17.89B	5.66B	25.73B	38.72B
	Total Liabilities
107.15B	103.78B	99.70B	97.47B	99.59B	107.06B
	Stockholders Equity
149.24B	152.32B	160.96B	191.86B	167.38B	162.21B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
12.38B	15.04B	19.78B	37.63B	21.09B	1.68B
	Operating Cash Flow
24.67B	31.49B	35.61B	49.60B	29.19B	10.58B
	Investing Cash Flow
-4.98B	-8.94B	-15.23B	-12.11B	-5.90B	-7.00B
	Financing Cash Flow
-18.61B	-23.49B	-30.11B	-24.98B	-23.10B	-3.70B

Chevron Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Neutral

Last Price137.83

Price Trends

50DMA

143.89

Negative

100DMA

147.77

Negative

200DMA

146.56

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-1.10

Negative

RSI

48.05

Neutral

STOCH

29.52

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CVX, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 137.83 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 137.01, below the 50-day MA of 143.89, and below the 200-day MA of 146.56, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.10 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.05 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.52 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CVX.

Chevron Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (57)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TTE	77 Outperform	$121.85B	9.50	11.75%	4.79%	-9.86%	-32.59%
SHEL	76 Outperform	$194.69B	15.19	7.40%	4.19%	-2.62%	-20.13%
CVX	75 Outperform	$238.45B	15.65	10.11%	4.83%	-1.05%	-19.71%
XOM	74 Outperform	$446.13B	13.70	14.18%	3.77%	2.36%	-7.18%
EQNR	73 Outperform	$64.97B	7.50	18.28%	4.82%	3.96%	-1.69%
BP	69 Neutral	$75.45B	186.20	-1.87%	6.38%	-7.70%	-113.83%
Sector *	57 Neutral	$7.06B	3.04	-3.49%	5.80%	0.53%	-50.39%

* Energy Sector Average

Performance Comparison

CVX

Chevron

137.83

-12.25

-8.16%

29.15

-5.81

-16.62%

XOM

Exxon Mobil

103.52

-6.28

-5.72%

SHEL

Shell

66.69

-1.87

-2.73%

EQNR

Equinor ASA

24.29

-1.70

-6.54%

TTE

TotalEnergies

58.49

-9.44

-13.90%

Chevron Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy

Chevron Adjusts Executive Compensation and Equity Awards

Neutral

Jan 31, 2025

On January 29, 2025, Chevron’s independent Board of Directors reviewed and adjusted the compensation of its executive officers. CEO Michael K. Wirth’s salary remained unchanged, whereas other executives, including Eimear P. Bonner and Mark A. Nelson, received salary increases effective March 1, 2025. The Board also maintained existing target percentages for the Chevron Incentive Plan (CIP) and approved significant equity awards under the 2022 Long-Term Incentive Plan, reflecting Chevron’s strategic focus on rewarding performance and retaining executive talent. Additionally, the equity awards include performance shares and stock options, with vesting periods and conditions tied to Chevron’s performance against industry peers and the S&P 500 Index, highlighting the company’s commitment to aligning executive compensation with shareholder returns.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.