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Chevron
(NYSE:CVX)
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Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
$217.00
▲(11.40% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/31/26
Overall score is driven primarily by solid financial resilience (strong balance sheet and large absolute free cash flow) and a notably strong earnings-call update (record operations, material cost reductions, accelerated synergies, and debt reduction). Technicals are supportive with the stock above major moving averages. These positives are partially offset by less attractive valuation (P/E 32.42) and evidence of cyclical normalization in profitability and cash-to-earnings conversion.
Positive Factors
Conservative balance sheet
Chevron's low leverage and large equity base provide durable financial flexibility across commodity cycles. This supports sustained capital spending, dividend continuity and opportunistic M&A or buybacks without forcing distress sales, improving resilience over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Profitability normalization
Material margin compression versus recent peak years indicates lower structural earnings power absent sustained commodity tailwinds. Persistently lower margins reduce return on capital, constrain reinvestment capacity and temper long-term ROE improvement prospects.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Conservative balance sheet
Chevron's low leverage and large equity base provide durable financial flexibility across commodity cycles. This supports sustained capital spending, dividend continuity and opportunistic M&A or buybacks without forcing distress sales, improving resilience over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Chevron Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Net Oil Production by Geography
Tracks oil output across various regions, indicating Chevron’s production capabilities, regional growth opportunities, and potential geopolitical risks.
Tracks oil output across various regions, indicating Chevron’s production capabilities, regional growth opportunities, and potential geopolitical risks.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyChevron (CVX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$392.01B
Dividend Yield3.55%
Average Volume (3M)8.72M
Price to Earnings (P/E)18.8
Beta (1Y)0.26
Revenue Growth12.85%
EPS Growth34.53%
CountryUS
Employees43,039
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Integrated
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)10.47
Shares Outstanding1,991,597,800
10 Day Avg. Volume7,011,737
30 Day Avg. Volume8,719,150
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.72
Price to Book (P/B)1.51
Price to Sales (P/S)1.53
P/FCF Ratio16.98
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$212.78Price Target Upside9.23% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering19
EPS Forecast (FY)14.77
Revenue Forecast (FY)$224.88B
Chevron Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Chevron Corporation functions as a global energy and chemicals powerhouse, orchestrating its diverse operations worldwide. The company's business is organized into two primary divisions: Upstream and Downstream. The Upstream segment focuses on the...
How the Company Makes Money
Chevron primarily makes money by producing and selling hydrocarbons and related products across its integrated value chain. Upstream earnings and cash flow are driven by the sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids produced from Che...
Chevron Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 31, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized very strong operational and financial performance in Q2: record production and refinery throughput, sizable cash generation (~$20B operating cash, $15.4B adjusted FCF), $3B of structural cost reductions achieved early, accelerated Hess synergies and clear capital-efficiency improvements (CapEx per boe down ~25%). Management announced a material commercial milestone in power (2.67 GW PPA with Microsoft) and significant upside from debottlenecking and exploration. Key risks highlighted include regional logistics (CPC pipeline and Black Sea), geopolitical constraints (Partitioned Zone, Strait of Hormuz), product-market tightness and some midstream/infrastructure uncertainties; China demand is also uncertain. On balance, the positives — strong earnings, cash flow, cost saves, debt reduction, and multiple forward-looking growth options — materially outweigh the listed challenges, though execution and geopolitical risks remain important to monitor.Positive Updates
Strong Quarterly Earnings and Cash Generation
Reported GAAP earnings of $12.1 billion ($6.11 per share) and adjusted earnings of $12.0 billion ($6.06 per share). Cash flow from operations (excluding working capital) was nearly $20 billion and adjusted free cash flow was $15.4 billion for the quarter.
Negative Updates
CPC Pipeline / Regional Logistics Risk
Intermittent activity in and around the Black Sea and CPC pipeline region tied to the Ukraine-Russia conflict has disrupted some flows; third SPM was offline for refurbishment but expected back in service in Q3. Management noted alternatives (Caspian shipments, rail, storage) but did not quantify full evacuation capacity if CPC were closed for an extended period.
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Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Quarterly Earnings and Cash Generation
Reported GAAP earnings of $12.1 billion ($6.11 per share) and adjusted earnings of $12.0 billion ($6.06 per share). Cash flow from operations (excluding working capital) was nearly $20 billion and adjusted free cash flow was $15.4 billion for the quarter.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Chevron reiterated disciplined financial and operational guidance while updating several key metrics: Q2 GAAP earnings were $12.1B ($6.11/sh) and adjusted earnings $12.0B ($6.06/sh), cash from operations excl. working capital was ~$19.7B and adjusted free cash flow $15.4B, with organic CapEx of $4.4B in the quarter and an expectation to finish 2026 at the low end of the $18–19B budget (within a longer-term $18–21B range) and Permian CapEx below $3.5B; management also said 2026 CapEx per boe is expected to be ~25% lower than 2025. They affirmed a $6B affiliate distribution target at $70/bbl Brent (roughly $3B realized this quarter), reduced debt by >$8B (net debt/CFFO 0.6x), unwound working capital by $2.9B, and expect Venezuela debt recovery by early 2027. Operationally they cited global upstream production growth >5% q/q (up >200k boe/d q/q), U.S. upstream record near 2.1M boe/d, international ~2.0M boe/d, shale/tight ~1.7M boe/d, Permian >1.0M b/d for several quarters, and TCO/FGP debottlenecking raising 3GP oil capacity from 260k to 320k bbl/d (total processing just above 1.0M bbl/d). They also reported $3B of structural cost reductions achieved six months early (70% from efficiency gains), $1.5B of Hess synergies realized (50% above target) ahead of schedule, and reiterated 2030 objectives of 2–3% annual production growth, >10% adjusted FCF CAGR and >3% ROCE improvement at flat prices.Chevron Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
84
Very Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 208.71B | 184.43B | 193.41B | 196.91B | 235.72B | 155.61B |
| Gross Profit | 64.69B | 56.09B | 56.93B | 60.39B | 65.59B | 45.43B |
| EBITDA | 55.77B | 41.42B | 45.81B | 47.81B | 67.00B | 39.36B |
| Net Income | 20.59B | 12.30B | 17.66B | 21.37B | 35.47B | 15.63B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 330.13B | 324.01B | 256.94B | 261.63B | 257.71B | 239.53B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 37.07B | 6.47B | 6.79B | 8.22B | 17.90B | 5.67B |
| Total Debt | 37.08B | 46.74B | 24.54B | 20.84B | 23.34B | 31.37B |
| Total Liabilities | 140.25B | 131.84B | 103.78B | 99.70B | 97.47B | 99.59B |
| Stockholders Equity | 189.88B | 186.45B | 152.32B | 160.96B | 159.28B | 139.07B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 35.20B | 16.59B | 15.04B | 19.78B | 37.63B | 21.09B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 45.13B | 33.94B | 31.49B | 35.61B | 49.60B | 29.19B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -14.15B | -15.91B | -8.94B | -15.23B | -12.11B | -5.87B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -26.99B | -19.06B | -23.47B | -30.11B | -24.98B | -23.11B |
Chevron Technical Analysis
Positive
194.79
Price Trends
182.75
Positive
188.04
Positive
174.51
Positive
Market Momentum
4.04
Negative
67.14
Neutral
66.19
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CVX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 194.79 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 185.34, above the 50-day MA of 182.75, and above the 200-day MA of 174.51, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 4.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.14 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.19 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CVX.
Chevron Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $392.01B | 18.80 | 10.98% | 3.58% | 12.85% | 34.53% | |
75 Outperform | $644.21B | 20.09 | 9.77% | 2.60% | 11.04% | 9.80% | |
75 Outperform | $252.56B | 10.03 | 10.58% | 3.35% | 7.39% | 103.04% | |
69 Neutral | $146.78B | 20.46 | 11.29% | 2.74% | 1.02% | -25.38% | |
69 Neutral | $56.76B | 13.85 | 12.82% | 1.75% | -15.17% | -66.00% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
63 Neutral | $115.03B | 38.26 | 5.52% | 4.56% | 4.29% | ― |
* Energy Sector Average
CVX
Chevron
196.83
50.53
34.54%
BP
BP
45.22
14.38
46.61%
COP
Conocophillips
120.48
30.61
34.06%
XOM
Exxon Mobil
155.44
51.39
49.39%
OXY
Occidental Petroleum
57.07
15.08
35.91%
SHEL
Shell
91.98
22.79
32.94%
Chevron Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Chevron Shareholders Back Board, Pay Plans at Meeting
Positive
May 29, 2026
At Chevron’s 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders held on May 27, 2026, all nominated directors were elected to one-year terms, with each receiving strong majority support from voting shareholders. Stockholders also approved the ratification ...
Executive/Board Changes
Chevron Announces Planned Retirement of Chief Legal Officer
Neutral
May 29, 2026
On May 27, 2026, Chevron announced that R. Hewitt Pate notified its board of his decision to resign as Chief Legal Officer, effective December 31, 2026, in connection with his planned retirement in June 2027. He will continue serving as a non-exec...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.