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Chevron Corp (CVX)
NYSE:CVX
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Chevron (CVX) AI Stock Analysis

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CVX

Chevron

(NYSE:CVX)

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Outperform 76 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
$176.00
â–²(11.80% Upside)
Chevron's overall stock score of 76 reflects strong operational performance and strategic growth initiatives, particularly the successful merger with Hess. The company's robust financial health and positive technical indicators further support this score. However, valuation concerns and recent financial headwinds slightly temper the outlook.
Positive Factors
Strategic Growth through Mergers
The Hess acquisition enhances Chevron's asset base and market position, promising substantial free cash flow and production growth, strengthening its long-term competitive advantage.
Operational Excellence
Operational improvements in key segments like the Permian Basin enhance efficiency and cost-effectiveness, supporting sustained profitability and competitive positioning.
Strong Cash Flow Management
Effective cash flow management ensures Chevron can fund operations, invest in growth opportunities, and return value to shareholders, supporting long-term financial health.
Negative Factors
Decline in Revenue Growth
A decline in revenue growth can hinder Chevron's ability to expand its market share and invest in future growth, potentially impacting long-term financial performance.
Exploration Results Below Expectations
Underwhelming exploration results may limit Chevron's ability to replenish reserves, affecting future production capabilities and long-term growth prospects.
Foreign Currency Impact
Significant foreign currency impacts can erode profitability and create financial volatility, challenging Chevron's ability to maintain stable earnings over time.

Chevron (CVX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Chevron Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionChevron Corporation, through its subsidiaries, engages in integrated energy and chemicals operations worldwide. The company operates in two segments, Upstream and Downstream. The Upstream segment is involved in the exploration, development, production, and transportation of crude oil and natural gas; processing, liquefaction, transportation, and regasification associated with liquefied natural gas; transportation of crude oil through pipelines; and transportation, storage, and marketing of natural gas, as well as operates a gas-to-liquids plant. The Downstream segment engages in refining crude oil into petroleum products; marketing crude oil, refined products, and lubricants; manufacturing and marketing of renewable fuels; transporting crude oil and refined products by pipeline, marine vessel, motor equipment, and rail car; and manufacturing and marketing of commodity petrochemicals, plastics for industrial uses, and fuel and lubricant additives. It is also involved in the cash management and debt financing activities; insurance operations; real estate activities; and technology businesses. The company was formerly known as ChevronTexaco Corporation and changed its name to Chevron Corporation in 2005. Chevron Corporation was founded in 1879 and is based in San Ramon, California.
How the Company Makes MoneyChevron generates revenue primarily through the exploration, production, and sale of crude oil and natural gas. The company's upstream segment focuses on finding and extracting oil and gas resources, which are then sold in global markets. The downstream segment encompasses refining operations, where crude oil is transformed into consumable products, including gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, which are sold through retail and commercial channels. Additionally, Chevron's chemicals segment produces and sells petrochemicals, enhancing its revenue base. Significant partnerships, joint ventures, and strategic alliances with other industry players and governments also contribute to Chevron's financial performance, allowing the company to expand its operational capabilities and access new markets. Furthermore, fluctuations in commodity prices, efficient cost management, and investments in technology and renewable energy sources play crucial roles in driving the company's profitability.

Chevron Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Net Oil Production by Geography
Net Oil Production by Geography
Tracks oil output across various regions, indicating Chevron’s production capabilities, regional growth opportunities, and potential geopolitical risks.
Chart InsightsChevron's U.S. oil production has surged, driven by strategic moves like the Hess merger and Permian Basin expansion, resulting in a 60% increase over two years. This aligns with Chevron's record-setting production achievements and operational efficiencies. Despite international production remaining relatively stable, the U.S. growth underscores Chevron's focus on domestic expansion and high-margin opportunities. The earnings call highlights further growth prospects, with Chevron aiming for the upper end of its production guidance range, signaling strong future performance potential.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Chevron Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 01, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 24, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Chevron demonstrated strong operational performance and strategic growth through its merger with Hess and increased production in key areas. Despite some financial headwinds from foreign currency impacts and a decline in adjusted earnings, the company remains confident in its cash flow and shareholder return capabilities.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Production Achieved
Chevron reported a quarterly production record both in the U.S. and globally, with Permian Basin production averaging over 1 million barrels of oil equivalent per day.
Successful Hess Merger and Arbitration Win
Chevron closed its merger with Hess, adding significant assets to its portfolio and achieved a favorable arbitration outcome, further solidifying its market position.
Strong Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns
Chevron generated cash flow from operations of $8.3 billion and returned over $5 billion to shareholders for the 13th consecutive quarter.
Operational Excellence in Key Segments
The company reported its highest U.S. refinery crude throughput in over 20 years and achieved a 30% reduction in development and production unit costs in the Permian.
Enhanced Free Cash Flow Forecast
Chevron increased its 2026 additional free cash flow guidance to $12.5 billion, driven by synergy realization and production growth.
Negative Updates
Foreign Currency Impact
Foreign currency effects negatively impacted earnings by $348 million in the quarter.
Decline in Adjusted Earnings
Adjusted second quarter earnings were down $760 million compared to the last quarter, affected by lower realizations and higher depreciation, depletion, and amortization (DD&A).
Exploration Results Below Expectations
The company acknowledged that recent exploration results have not met expectations, prompting a change in program and approach.
Company Guidance
During Chevron's Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company delivered comprehensive guidance on their operational and financial outlook. Chevron achieved a record production milestone in the Permian Basin, averaging over 1 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, and returned over $5 billion to shareholders for the 13th consecutive quarter. The merger with Hess has positioned Chevron as the largest leaseholder in the Gulf of America, with U.S. production nearly 60% higher than two years ago. The company expects to realize $1 billion in annual run-rate synergies by the end of the year, six months ahead of schedule, and anticipates the merger to be cash flow accretive in the fourth quarter. Chevron reported second quarter earnings of $2.5 billion, or $1.45 per share, with adjusted earnings at $3.1 billion, or $1.77 per share. Organic CapEx was $3.5 billion, and inorganic CapEx, primarily for lithium acreage acquisition, was approximately $200 million. Cash flow from operations, excluding working capital, was $8.3 billion, and adjusted free cash flow was $4.9 billion, marking a 15% quarter-on-quarter increase despite a 10% drop in crude prices. The company revised its 2026 additional free cash flow guidance to $12.5 billion, reflecting strong performance in key growth assets and cost reductions.

Chevron Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Chevron demonstrates solid financial health with strong equity and low leverage. Profitability metrics indicate moderate operational efficiency, while cash flow performance remains robust despite recent declines. The company is well-positioned within the integrated oil & gas industry, with potential for improved margins and cash flows as market conditions stabilize.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Chevron has shown stable revenue levels with a slight decrease in recent years. Gross profit margin for TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) is 14.5%, indicating consistent profitability in the oil & gas sector. Net profit margin stands at 7.3%, showing moderate profitability. However, the EBIT margin of 3.9% suggests significant operational costs impacting core profitability. Revenue growth has fluctuated, with a recent decline from the prior year.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a strong equity position with an equity ratio of 58.3% for TTM, indicating financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio is 0.20, showcasing a conservative leverage strategy. Return on equity is 9.4%, suggesting efficient use of equity capital. Overall, Chevron maintains a healthy balance sheet with low leverage risks.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.71, indicating robust cash generation relative to profits. Free cash flow has declined, with a growth rate of -25.2% from the previous year, primarily due to fluctuating capital expenditures. Still, free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.82, reflecting effective cash flow management despite recent challenges.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue189.25B193.41B196.91B235.72B155.61B94.47B
Gross Profit44.11B56.93B60.39B65.59B45.43B22.82B
EBITDA41.00B45.81B47.81B67.00B39.36B10.44B
Net Income13.73B17.66B21.37B35.47B15.63B-5.54B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets250.82B256.94B261.63B257.71B239.53B239.79B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments4.07B6.79B8.22B17.90B5.67B5.63B
Total Debt29.47B24.54B20.84B23.34B31.37B44.31B
Total Liabilities103.56B103.78B99.70B97.47B99.59B107.06B
Stockholders Equity146.42B152.32B160.96B159.28B139.07B131.69B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow16.10B15.04B19.78B37.63B21.09B1.68B
Operating Cash Flow32.13B31.49B35.61B49.60B29.19B10.58B
Investing Cash Flow-10.07B-8.94B-15.23B-12.11B-5.87B-6.96B
Financing Cash Flow-21.70B-23.47B-30.11B-24.98B-23.11B-3.74B

Chevron Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price157.42
Price Trends
50DMA
154.43
Positive
100DMA
147.48
Positive
200DMA
147.63
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.86
Positive
RSI
52.71
Neutral
STOCH
28.72
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CVX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 157.42 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 157.76, above the 50-day MA of 154.43, and above the 200-day MA of 147.63, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.86 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.71 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 28.72 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CVX.

Chevron Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
79
Outperform
477.57B15.8811.81%3.48%-3.79%-15.46%
76
Outperform
$319.50B20.168.97%4.29%-5.02%-23.13%
74
Outperform
204.70B15.797.51%3.96%-5.75%-20.18%
73
Outperform
79.49B5.9918.86%12.67%-13.68%-13.96%
73
Outperform
136.22B10.6813.37%5.74%-10.73%-36.76%
65
Neutral
88.56B145.640.98%5.54%-7.40%-90.89%
65
Neutral
$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
CVX
Chevron
157.42
19.70
14.30%
BP
BP
34.74
4.90
16.42%
XOM
Exxon Mobil
113.95
3.19
2.88%
PBR
Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras
13.16
0.16
1.23%
SHEL
Shell
71.54
6.30
9.66%
TTE
TotalEnergies
61.58
-2.82
-4.38%

Chevron Corporate Events

Private Placements and Financing
Chevron Issues $5.5 Billion in Notes for Funding
Neutral
Aug 13, 2025

On August 13, 2025, Chevron U.S.A. Inc., a subsidiary of Chevron Corporation, issued a series of notes totaling $5.5 billion with varying maturity dates ranging from 2027 to 2035. This issuance, guaranteed by Chevron Corporation, aims to strengthen the company’s financial position by securing long-term funding through both fixed and floating rate notes, potentially impacting its debt structure and market standing.

Executive/Board ChangesM&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Chevron Appoints John B. Hess to Board Post-Acquisition
Positive
Jul 29, 2025

On July 28, 2025, Chevron Corporation appointed John B. Hess to its board of directors, following its acquisition of Hess Corporation. Mr. Hess, who previously served as CEO of Hess Corporation, will also join the Public Policy and Sustainability Committee. Additionally, Chevron has entered into a memorandum of understanding with HFO Holdings LLC, owned by Mr. Hess, to transfer interests in Hess Toy Truck LLC and HG Aircraft LLC, along with intellectual property rights related to the ‘Hess’ name, to HFO. These strategic moves are part of Chevron’s integration efforts post-acquisition, aimed at streamlining operations and enhancing its market position.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Chevron Completes Acquisition of Hess Corporation
Positive
Jul 18, 2025

On July 18, 2025, Chevron Corporation completed its acquisition of Hess Corporation, creating a premier integrated oil and gas company with a diversified global portfolio. The merger, which includes significant assets in Guyana and the U.S. Bakken, is expected to drive substantial free cash flow and production growth into the 2030s, achieving $1 billion in annual cost synergies by the end of 2025, and enhancing shareholder returns.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 19, 2025