Chevron (CVX)
NYSE:CVX
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Chevron
(NYSE:CVX)
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Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$230.00
â–²(20.82% Upside)
Action:UpgradedDate:03/26/26
CVX scores well on financial resilience (strong balance sheet and solid cash flow) and a constructive earnings-call outlook featuring production growth, cost-out execution, and shareholder returns. The score is tempered by stretched technical conditions (overbought signals) and a valuation that looks less compelling given cyclical earnings and recent margin compression.
Positive Factors
Balance Sheet Strength
Chevron's low leverage and growing equity provide durable financial flexibility across cycles. A strong balance sheet supports sustained dividend policy, opportunistic buybacks or M&A, and the ability to fund multi-year offshore and Permian projects while absorbing commodity-driven cashflow swings without forcing asset sales.
Negative Factors
Margin Compression
Significant margin decline highlights sensitivity to commodity prices and weaker downstream/chemicals cycles, reducing earnings predictability. Lower margins compress free cashflow conversion, limit reinvestment or returns in weaker cycles, and raise the risk that structural profitability won't match prior peaks.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Balance Sheet Strength
Chevron's low leverage and growing equity provide durable financial flexibility across cycles. A strong balance sheet supports sustained dividend policy, opportunistic buybacks or M&A, and the ability to fund multi-year offshore and Permian projects while absorbing commodity-driven cashflow swings without forcing asset sales.
Read all positive factors
Chevron (CVX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$379.84B
Dividend Yield4.54%
Average Volume (3M)14.14M
Price to Earnings (P/E)22.9
Beta (1Y)0.40
Revenue Growth-3.44%
EPS Growth-22.05%
CountryUS
Employees45,298
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Integrated
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.52
Shares Outstanding1,995,385,500
10 Day Avg. Volume12,444,332
30 Day Avg. Volume14,143,647
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.72
Price to Book (P/B)1.51
Price to Sales (P/S)1.53
P/FCF Ratio16.98
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.11
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.28
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.51
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.16
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$209.05Price Target Upside9.82% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering22
EPS Forecast (FY)10.4
Revenue Forecast (FY)$211.26B
Chevron Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Chevron Corporation, through its subsidiaries, engages in integrated energy and chemicals operations worldwide. The company operates in two segments, Upstream and Downstream. The Upstream segment is involved in the exploration, development, produc...
How the Company Makes Money
Chevron primarily makes money by selling hydrocarbons and energy-related products and services through two main segments: Upstream and Downstream, with an additional contribution from chemicals. In Upstream, Chevron generates revenue from producin...
Chevron Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Net Oil Production by Geography
Tracks oil output across various regions, indicating Chevron’s production capabilities, regional growth opportunities, and potential geopolitical risks.
Tracks oil output across various regions, indicating Chevron’s production capabilities, regional growth opportunities, and potential geopolitical risks.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyChevron Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 30, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 01, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a predominantly positive outlook: Chevron reported record production, strong free cash flow growth (adjusted FCF up over 35% excl. asset sales), meaningful cost savings (delivering $1.5B in 2025 and targeting $3–4B in 2026), and clear growth drivers across the Permian, TCO, Guyana, and the Eastern Mediterranean. Operational hiccups (notably a temporary TCO power issue and CPC loading constraints) and cyclical weaknesses in chemicals and some downstream volumes introduced short-term headwinds, and lower oil prices reduced upstream earnings. Overall, the highlights (record volumes, robust cash generation, disciplined capital allocation, dividend increase, and sustained cost-out momentum) substantially outweigh the lowlights.Positive Updates
Record Production and Portfolio Strength
Production reached record global levels in 2025 and Chevron achieved its highest full-year US production in company history. Permian production surpassed 1,000,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day and multiple project start-ups (Valleymore, Whale, Anchor) and Tengiz's Future Growth Project (~260,000 b/d) support advancing toward additional growth targets.
Negative Updates
Temporary TCO Power Distribution Issue and Unplanned Downtime
TCO experienced a temporary power distribution issue that required putting production into recycle mode and resulted in unplanned downtime. Production has resumed with expectations that majority plant capacity would be online within a week and unconstrained production restored by February, but an investigation into root cause is ongoing and some throughput constraints remain to be fully tested.
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Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Production and Portfolio Strength
Production reached record global levels in 2025 and Chevron achieved its highest full-year US production in company history. Permian production surpassed 1,000,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day and multiple project start-ups (Valleymore, Whale, Anchor) and Tengiz's Future Growth Project (~260,000 b/d) support advancing toward additional growth targets.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance highlighted continued cash- and production-driven growth with many quantitative targets: unchanged full‑year 2026 TCO Chevron‑share free cash flow guidance of $6.0 billion at $70/bbl Brent; company production growth expected 7–10% year‑over‑year (ex‑asset sales) driven by ~200,000 boe/d from recent/upcoming offshore start‑ups and a TCO increase of ~30,000 boe/d, while the Permian is expected to be >1,000,000 b/d for a full year and management is advancing toward a 300,000 boe/d target for 2026; financials/returns targets include dividend + CapEx breakeven below $50 Brent, a structural cost‑savings target of $3–4 billion by 2026 (>$1.5 billion delivered in 2025 and a $2.0 billion annual run rate), continued capital discipline, and strong cash returns (adjusted free cash flow $20.0 billion for 2025, Q4 adjusted earnings $3.0 billion or $1.52/sh, GAAP Q4 earnings $2.8 billion or $1.39/sh, Q4 cash from operations $10.8 billion including a $1.7 billion WC drawdown, Q4 organic CapEx $5.1 billion, Q4 buybacks $3.0 billion and >$14.0 billion returned including Hess shares), a net debt coverage ratio of ~1x, and a 4% increase in the quarterly dividend.Chevron Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
82
Very Positive
Cash Flow
71
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 184.43B | 193.41B | 196.91B | 235.72B | 155.61B |
| Gross Profit | 56.09B | 56.93B | 60.39B | 65.59B | 45.43B |
| EBITDA | 41.42B | 45.81B | 47.81B | 67.00B | 39.36B |
| Net Income | 12.30B | 17.66B | 21.37B | 35.47B | 15.63B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 324.01B | 256.94B | 261.63B | 257.71B | 239.53B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 6.47B | 6.79B | 8.22B | 17.90B | 5.67B |
| Total Debt | 46.74B | 24.54B | 20.84B | 23.34B | 31.37B |
| Total Liabilities | 131.84B | 103.78B | 99.70B | 97.47B | 99.59B |
| Stockholders Equity | 186.45B | 152.32B | 160.96B | 159.28B | 139.07B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 16.59B | 15.04B | 19.78B | 37.63B | 21.09B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 33.94B | 31.49B | 35.61B | 49.60B | 29.19B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -15.91B | -8.94B | -15.23B | -12.11B | -5.87B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -19.06B | -23.47B | -30.11B | -24.98B | -23.11B |
Chevron Technical Analysis
Positive
190.36
Price Trends
190.00
Positive
171.77
Positive
160.98
Positive
Market Momentum
2.03
Positive
41.34
Neutral
18.89
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CVX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 190.36 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 201.21, above the 50-day MA of 190.00, and above the 200-day MA of 160.98, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 2.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.34 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.89 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CVX.
Chevron Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $150.92B | 14.67 | 12.28% | 3.43% | 8.41% | -16.12% | |
74 Outperform | $379.84B | 22.91 | 7.32% | 4.54% | -3.44% | -22.05% | |
73 Outperform | $57.73B | 16.93 | 6.43% | 2.39% | -2.48% | -65.26% | |
72 Outperform | $646.02B | 18.07 | 11.04% | 3.35% | -4.17% | -14.15% | |
71 Outperform | $259.63B | 12.10 | 10.06% | 3.92% | -6.96% | 0.03% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
60 Neutral | $120.41B | 1,640.39 | 0.10% | 5.62% | -4.11% | -37.59% |
* Energy Sector Average
CVX
Chevron
190.36
61.19
47.38%
BP
BP
45.90
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85.19%
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155.04
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OXY
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58.53
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SHEL
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91.09
33.62
58.49%
Chevron Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Chevron Updates Board Bylaws Following Hess Acquisition
Positive
Mar 25, 2026
On March 25, 2026, Chevron’s Board of Directors approved amended and restated by-laws that shift the annual election of the Chairman and, when applicable, the Lead Director from independent directors to all non-employee directors, while also...
Executive/Board Changes
Chevron boosts executive pay and long-term equity awards
Positive
Jan 30, 2026
On January 28, 2026, Chevron’s independent directors completed their annual review of executive compensation and approved base salary increases for key executives, including a $75,000 raise for Chairman and CEO Michael K. Wirth to $1,975,000...
Executive/Board Changes
Chevron Adds Thomas Horton to Board and Audit Committee
Positive
Jan 27, 2026
On January 27, 2026, Chevron Corporation’s board of directors appointed Thomas W. Horton, a partner at Global Infrastructure Partners and former chairman and chief executive of American Airlines and senior executive at ATT, as a member of it...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.