Exxon Mobil (XOM) AI Stock Analysis

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Exxon Mobil

(NYSE:XOM)

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Outperform 73 (OpenAI - 5.2)

Rating:73Outperform

Price Target:

$158.00

▲(7.05% Upside)

Overall score reflects resilient fundamentals and a strong balance sheet, supported by a positive earnings-call outlook focused on advantaged production growth, cost savings, and shareholder returns. The score is tempered by down-cycle financial momentum (revenue/FCF compression and higher debt), a stretched technical setup (overbought indicators), and a valuation that is not especially cheap given cyclicality.

Positive Factors

Balance sheet strength

Moderate leverage against a very large equity and asset base gives Exxon durable financial flexibility to fund large capex cycles, pursue mega-projects and return capital. This underpins multi-year investment capacity and resilience through commodity cycles.

Project execution and advantaged production

Consistent on-time, lower-cost delivery creates a durable competitive edge: faster, cheaper project execution raises volume growth visibility (Guyana, Permian, LNG) and lowers unit breakevens, supporting sustained advantaged production and long-term cash generation.

Cash generation and shareholder distributions

High absolute cashflow capacity funds capex, dividends and sizable buybacks even in a down-cycle. Persistent OCF and positive FCF provide structural support for capital returns and reinvestment in growth platforms over the next several years.

Negative Factors

Down-cycle revenue and FCF compression

Sharp declines in revenue and free cash flow reduce reinvestment headroom and increase sensitivity to prolonged weak commodity prices. Combined with higher absolute debt, the company has less buffer if the down-cycle persists, stressing funding flexibility.

Chemicals segment margin pressure

Structural global capacity additions can depress chemicals margins for an extended period, eroding a historically stable earnings stream. Prolonged weakness would reduce segment cash generation and require either cost mitigation or asset reallocation to restore returns.

Geopolitical and license uncertainty (Guyana/Venezuela)

Unresolved legal and diplomatic risks to key acreage create sustained operational uncertainty over future volumes and investment in Guyana. Separately, Venezuela remains described as uninvestable, limiting access to potential high-cost barrels and constraining longer-term resource optionality.

Exxon Mobil (XOM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$622.41B

Dividend Yield3.35%

Average Volume (3M)17.34M

Price to Earnings (P/E)21.5

Beta (1Y)0.29

Revenue Growth-4.17%

EPS Growth-14.15%

CountryUS

Employees61,000

SectorEnergy

Sector Strength52

IndustryOil & Gas Integrated

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)1.71

Shares Outstanding4,217,165,500

10 Day Avg. Volume23,016,148

30 Day Avg. Volume17,339,607

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.00

Price to Book (P/B)0.00

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio0.00

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.08

Enterprise Value/Revenue2.08

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit9.61

Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.95

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$142.33

Price Target Upside-3.56% Downside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering18

EPS Forecast (FY)N/A

Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A

Exxon Mobil Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionExxon Mobil Corporation explores for and produces crude oil and natural gas in the United States and internationally. It operates through Upstream, Downstream, and Chemical segments. The company is also involved in the manufacture, trade, transport, and sale of crude oil, natural gas, petroleum products, petrochemicals, and other specialty products; manufactures and sells petrochemicals, including olefins, polyolefins, aromatics, and various other petrochemicals; and captures and stores carbon, hydrogen, and biofuels. As of December 31, 2021, it had approximately 20,528 net operated wells with proved reserves. The company was founded in 1870 and is headquartered in Irving, Texas.

How the Company Makes MoneyExxon Mobil generates revenue primarily through the sale of crude oil, natural gas, refined petroleum products, and petrochemicals. The Upstream segment contributes significantly to its earnings through the extraction and sale of oil and gas, which are influenced by global commodity prices. The Downstream segment earns revenue by refining crude oil into various products such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, and by selling these products through a vast network of retail stations and wholesale markets. Additionally, the Chemical segment provides a stable revenue stream through the manufacture of chemical products that are essential for various industries. Exxon Mobil also benefits from long-term contracts and partnerships with other energy companies and governments, optimizing its production capabilities and market access. Factors such as fluctuations in oil prices, regulatory changes, and geopolitical events can also impact its earnings.

Exxon Mobil Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Net Oil-Equivalent Production

Net Oil-Equivalent Production
Measures the total volume of oil and gas produced, providing insight into resource extraction efficiency, reserve management, and the company's capacity to generate revenue from its core operations.

Chart InsightsExxonMobil's net oil-equivalent production has surged, particularly in liquids, reflecting strategic asset optimization and cost efficiencies. The latest earnings call highlights robust financial health, with significant structural cost reductions and asset divestments enhancing earnings potential. Despite market volatility and policy uncertainties, ExxonMobil's focus on advantaged assets and low carbon solutions positions it for sustained growth. The company's strategic initiatives to lower breakeven costs and increase high-value product output underscore its resilience and long-term profitability prospects, making it a compelling investment amid industry challenges.

Data provided by:

The Fly

Exxon Mobil Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jan 30, 2026

(Q4-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Apr 24, 2026

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The call emphasized strong operational execution, material emissions reductions, technology-driven growth, sizeable shareholder returns, and meaningful structural cost savings — with multiple advantaged growth engines (Guyana, Permian, LNG) and technology successes (Proxima, battery anodes, CCS). Headwinds include continued margin pressure in Chemicals from new supply, geopolitical/license uncertainty (notably parts of Guyana and Venezuela), and the need to scale new technologies commercially. On balance, positive operational and financial progress materially outweigh the noted risks and uncertainties.

Q4-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Significant Emissions Reductions

As of 2025 Exxon has reduced corporate GHG intensity by more than 20%, upstream GHG intensity by more than 40%, and corporate flaring intensity by more than 60%; methane intensity reductions targeted to be met by year-end.

Strong Production and Unit Earnings

Upstream production averaged 4.7 million oil-equivalent barrels per day in 2025; unit earnings are more than double 2019 levels on a constant price basis; company achieved highest annual production in over 40 years.

Project Execution — All 10 Key Projects Delivered

Successfully commenced startup activities for all 10 key 2025 projects (including Golden Pass LNG and Proxima expansion); projects organization executes ~3x as many mega projects as nearest competitor at up to 20% lower cost and 20% faster delivery.

Guyana Operational Outperformance

Yellowtail came online ahead of schedule; gross production in Q4 was roughly 875,000 barrels per day; first four FPSOs producing ~100,000 barrels per day above investment basis.

Record Permian Performance and Technology Adoption

Permian delivered a Q4 record of 1.8 million boe/d and year-over-year Permian production is expected to be up ~200,000 boe/d; lightweight proppant deployed in ~25% of wells in 2025 and expected to reach ~50% of new wells by end of next year.

Shareholder Returns and Cash Returns

Annualized shareholder return of 29% over the past five years; $150 billion of distributions to shareholders over that period; $20 billion of share repurchases completed in 2025.

Portfolio High-Grading and Divestitures

Disciplined high-grading continued with portfolio divestments totaling about $25 billion since 2019; company is targeting advantaged, lower breakeven assets.

Technology & Product Innovation (Proxima and Batteries)

Proxima Systems more than tripled capacity in 2025; Proxima-based rebar delivers ~40% improvement in installation efficiency; advanced battery anode graphite shows ~30% faster charging, up to 3% higher available capacity and up to 4x battery life in tests.

Carbon Capture and Storage Progress

Brought first third-party CCS project online capable of storing up to 2 million tons/year, secured seventh CCS contract; combined projects represent roughly 9 million tons/year of sequestered CO2.

Structural Cost Savings and Digital Transformation

Captured structural cost savings of $15 billion through 2025 (company states this is greater than all other IOCs combined); consolidating ERP/data platform from >10 systems to a single construct, targeting 97% fewer profit centers and 70% fewer cost centers to enable scale, automation and AI.

LNG Project Pipeline and Near-Term Startups

Golden Pass mechanically completed in Q4 and commissioning underway; first LNG expected in early March; Mozambique and Papua New Guinea project designs described as cost-competitive with potential FID timing (Mozambique possibly H2).

Negative Updates

Chemicals Segment Margin Pressure

Base Chemicals facing a tough environment: demand is robust but margins compressed due to new supply/capacity additions globally, weighing on segment profitability.

Geopolitical and License Uncertainties in Guyana

Portion of Stabroek Block remains under force majeure due to Venezuela border dispute; Stabroek license scheduled to expire in 2027 — outcomes depend on ICJ ruling and diplomatic developments, creating medium-term uncertainty over acreage access.

Venezuela Investment Constraints

Company characterizes Venezuela as currently 'uninvestable' under existing fiscal and legal terms; barrels there are high-cost and would require resolved fiscal terms and stabilization before meaningful re-entry.

Commercialization and Scale Risks for New Technologies

Promising battery anode graphite and lithium initiatives show performance gains but require scalable, cost-competitive production to realize value; lithium cost position still under demonstration and subject to price/cost risk.

Timing, Seasonality and 'Lumpy' Production

Management cautioned that quarterly results can be 'lumpy' (timing of cubes/startups), advising against extrapolating a single-quarter production pace to full-year outcomes; some project timelines (e.g., Mozambique) have experienced prior force majeure delays.

No Specific Base Decline Metric Provided

Analyst request for an explicit underlying base decline rate in the upstream portfolio was not answered with a numeric decline rate, leaving some visibility gaps for decline assumptions.

Company Guidance

The call reiterated strong execution and quantified targets: Exxon said it has already met its 2030 GHG and flaring plans (corporate GHG intensity down >20%, upstream GHG intensity down >40%, corporate flaring intensity down >60%, and methane‑intensity reductions expected by year‑end), reported 2025 upstream production averaging 4.7 million boe/d (Q4 Permian record 1.8 million boe/d) and expects advantaged assets to be ~65% of production by 2030 with the Permian to exceed 2.5 million boe/d beyond 2030; the company delivered all 10 key 2025 projects, expects Golden Pass first LNG in early March, sees product‑solutions projects driving earnings growth through 2030 with ~60% of that growth from assets already online, tripled Proxima capacity this year, deployed lightweight proppant in ~25% of wells in 2025 (target ~50% of new wells by year‑end), advanced CCS to roughly 9 million t/yr contracted capacity (including a first third‑party project able to store up to 2 million t/yr), captured ~$15 billion of structural cost savings through 2025, completed $20 billion of share repurchases in 2025 (retiring one‑third of Pioneer issuance), returned $150 billion to shareholders over five years with a 29% annualized return, and emphasized project execution advantages (about 3× as many mega‑projects as the nearest competitor at up to 20% lower cost and 20% faster delivery).

Exxon Mobil Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials remain resilient with solid TTM profitability (net margin ~9.2%) and strong absolute cash generation (OCF ~$52B; FCF ~$24B). Offsetting this, results are clearly down-cycle: revenue declined ~31% TTM, FCF fell sharply (~-69% TTM), cash conversion weakened, and total debt rose meaningfully versus 2024 (about $70B vs ~$42B).

Income Statement

Positive

Profitability remains solid in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) with a net margin of ~9.2% and operating margin of ~10.3%, but results are clearly down-cycle versus 2022–2023 (when margins and earnings were materially higher). Revenue declined ~31% in TTM after modest growth in 2024, highlighting commodity sensitivity and weaker pricing/realizations. Overall: strong absolute earnings power, but weakening trend and higher volatility keep the score below top-tier.

Balance Sheet

Very Positive

The balance sheet is a key strength: leverage is moderate in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) with debt-to-equity ~0.26 supported by a very large equity base (~$259B) and assets (~$449B). Returns on equity remain healthy (~11% TTM), though down from the peak levels seen in 2022–2023. Main watch-out is the sharp rise in total debt in TTM versus 2024 (around $70B vs ~$42B), which reduces flexibility if the down-cycle persists.

Cash Flow

Positive

Cash generation is still solid in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) with operating cash flow of ~$52B and free cash flow of ~$24B, but free cash flow has stepped down meaningfully (FCF growth ~-69% TTM). Cash conversion also softened: free cash flow is ~46% of net income (down from ~56–76% in prior years) and operating cash flow relative to net income is lower than 2022–2024. Strength is continued positive free cash flow; weakness is the sharp compression from prior-cycle highs.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	323.90B	339.25B	334.70B	398.68B	276.69B
Gross Profit	70.23B	76.74B	84.14B	103.07B	64.89B
EBITDA	67.86B	73.31B	74.27B	102.59B	52.79B
Net Income	28.84B	33.68B	36.01B	55.74B	23.04B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	448.98B	453.48B	376.32B	369.07B	338.92B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	10.68B	23.03B	31.54B	29.64B	6.80B
Total Debt	43.54B	41.71B	41.57B	41.19B	47.70B
Total Liabilities	182.35B	182.87B	163.78B	166.59B	163.24B
Stockholders Equity	259.39B	263.70B	204.80B	195.05B	168.58B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	23.61B	30.72B	33.45B	58.39B	36.05B
Operating Cash Flow	51.97B	55.02B	55.37B	76.80B	48.13B
Investing Cash Flow	-26.54B	-19.94B	-20.04B	-14.74B	-10.23B
Financing Cash Flow	-38.47B	-42.79B	-33.53B	-39.11B	-35.42B

Exxon Mobil Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price147.59

Price Trends

50DMA

124.06

Positive

100DMA

118.88

Positive

200DMA

112.86

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

5.86

Negative

RSI

79.30

Negative

STOCH

83.63

Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For XOM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 147.59 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 132.97, above the 50-day MA of 124.06, and above the 200-day MA of 112.86, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 5.86 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 79.30 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.63 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for XOM.

Exxon Mobil Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (65)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SHEL	78 Outperform	$221.58B	15.76	8.06%	3.92%	-6.96%	0.03%
CVX	76 Outperform	$364.91B	26.85	7.26%	4.54%	-3.44%	-22.05%
XOM	73 Outperform	$622.41B	21.45	11.03%	3.35%	-4.17%	-14.15%
VLO	70 Outperform	$60.21B	25.40	9.71%	2.74%	-8.48%	-56.92%
BP	68 Neutral	$100.24B	64.01	2.52%	5.62%	-4.11%	-37.59%
OXY	66 Neutral	$46.00B	32.94	5.82%	2.39%	-2.48%	-65.26%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%

* Energy Sector Average

Performance Comparison

XOM

Exxon Mobil

147.59

43.00

41.11%

39.20

9.03

29.94%

CVX

Chevron

181.23

36.06

24.84%

OXY

Occidental Petroleum

46.69

0.72

1.57%

SHEL

Shell

78.79

15.27

24.04%

VLO

Valero Energy

197.41

66.16

50.40%

Exxon Mobil Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures

Exxon Mobil Posts Strong 2025 Results, Highlights Shareholder Returns

Positive

Jan 30, 2026

On January 30, 2026, Exxon Mobil reported fourth-quarter 2025 earnings of $6.5 billion and full-year 2025 earnings of $28.8 billion, with cash flow from operations of $52.0 billion and free cash flow of $26.1 billion. Despite lower crude prices, weaker chemical margins and higher costs pulling earnings below 2024 levels, the company delivered its highest annual upstream production in more than 40 years, record refinery throughput, and distributed $37.2 billion to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. Management highlighted cumulative structural cost savings of $15.1 billion since 2019, industry-leading returns on capital employed and shareholder returns versus international oil company peers, as well as meeting its 2030 corporate greenhouse gas emissions and flaring-intensity reduction plans based on preliminary 2025 data, underscoring a strategy of disciplined capital allocation, balance-sheet strength and scale-driven growth to sustain profitability and investor payouts.

The most recent analyst rating on (XOM) stock is a Buy with a $153.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Exxon Mobil stock, see the XOM Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures

Exxon Mobil Issues Q4 2025 Performance Outlook Update

Negative

Jan 7, 2026

Exxon Mobil outlined management’s current view of the main market, seasonal and planned factors expected to affect its fourth-quarter 2025 results compared with the third quarter of 2025, when the company reported U.S. GAAP earnings of $7.5 billion and non-GAAP earnings of $8.1 billion. The company highlighted potential headwinds from lower liquids prices in the Upstream segment and impairments across Upstream, Energy Products, and Chemical Products, partly offset by improved industry margins in Energy Products, divestment gains in Energy Products, tax-related items across several segments, and year-end inventory and maintenance effects, while stressing that these ranges are directional, exclude operating performance and other variables, and do not constitute an earnings forecast.

The most recent analyst rating on (XOM) stock is a Buy with a $130.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Exxon Mobil stock, see the XOM Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board Changes

Exxon Mobil Announces CFO Retirement and Successor

Neutral

Dec 9, 2025

On December 8, 2025, Exxon Mobil announced that Kathryn A. Mikells, the Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, will retire effective February 1, 2026, to focus on her health recovery. Neil A. Hansen has been elected to succeed her, bringing extensive experience from his previous roles within the company, including his recent position as President of ExxonMobil Global Business Solutions.

The most recent analyst rating on (XOM) stock is a Buy with a $132.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Exxon Mobil stock, see the XOM Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy

ExxonMobil to Unveil Corporate Plan on Dec 9

Neutral

Nov 18, 2025

ExxonMobil announced plans to release details of its Corporate Plan, including capital plans up to 2030, on December 9, 2025. The release will be available on the company’s website, accompanied by a live broadcast and Q&A session with analysts, potentially impacting stakeholders by providing insights into the company’s future strategies.

The most recent analyst rating on (XOM) stock is a Buy with a $144.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Exxon Mobil stock, see the XOM Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing

Exxon Mobil Issues Floating Rate Notes for 2075

Neutral

Nov 13, 2025

On November 7, 2025, Exxon Mobil Corporation entered into an underwriting agreement for the issuance and sale of $111,949,000 in Floating Rate Notes due 2075. This financial move is part of the company’s strategic efforts to manage its long-term debt and strengthen its financial position, potentially impacting its market standing and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (XOM) stock is a Buy with a $144.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Exxon Mobil stock, see the XOM Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board Changes

Exxon Mobil Appoints Greg C. Garland as Director

Neutral

Nov 3, 2025

On October 28, 2025, Exxon Mobil‘s Board of Directors elected Greg C. Garland as a new non-employee director, effective November 3, 2025. Mr. Garland will join the Audit and Finance Committees and receive an initial grant of 8,000 shares of restricted stock, aligning his compensation with other non-employee directors.

The most recent analyst rating on (XOM) stock is a Buy with a $155.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Exxon Mobil stock, see the XOM Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions

Exxon Mobil Reports Strong Q3 2025 Earnings

Positive

Oct 31, 2025

Exxon Mobil reported strong third-quarter 2025 earnings of $7.5 billion and cash flow from operations of $14.8 billion, with shareholder distributions totaling $9.4 billion. The company advanced its growth ambitions through acquisitions and technological investments, setting production records in Guyana and the Permian Basin. Exxon Mobil’s year-to-date earnings were $22.3 billion, impacted by weaker crude prices and strategic divestments, but offset by volume growth and cost savings. The company declared a fourth-quarter dividend increase and maintained a strong financial position with industry-leading debt ratios.

The most recent analyst rating on (XOM) stock is a Hold with a $115.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Exxon Mobil stock, see the XOM Stock Forecast page.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jan 31, 2026