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Exxon Mobil (XOM)
NYSE:XOM
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Exxon Mobil
(NYSE:XOM)
Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$119.00
▲( 15.50% Upside)
Positive Factors
Earnings Performance
The Chemicals segment reported adjusted earnings above forecasts, demonstrating strong performance in this area.
Financial Performance
Exxon Mobil Corp. highlighted $12.7 billion of cumulative structural cost savings, contributing to a positive financial outlook.
Growth Projects
XOM plans to deliver 10 key growth projects across its portfolio this year, driving more than $3 billion of incremental earnings by 2026 at both normalized and current industry margins.
Negative Factors
Cash Flow Expectations
Overall, cash flow was below relative to expectations during the quarter, at approximately $13.8 billion versus the consensus at approximately $14.2 billion.
Earnings Impact
In 2Q25 upstream scheduled maintenance is expected to have a $310-$470MM earnings impact and volumes are expected to be net -100kboed due to this maintenance.
Free Cash Flow Valuation
XOM appears expensive on 2025 free cash flow at 5% though fairly valued on 2026 at 6.5%.
Exxon Mobil (XOM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$444.02B
Dividend Yield3.77%
Average Volume (3M)14.30M
Price to Earnings (P/E)13.6
Beta (1Y)0.38
Revenue Growth2.36%
EPS Growth-7.18%
CountryUS
Employees61,000
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength45
IndustryOil & Gas Integrated
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.76
Shares Outstanding4,309,638,700
10 Day Avg. Volume14,356,427
30 Day Avg. Volume14,302,485
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-3.62
Price to Book (P/B)1.70
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio15.76
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.10
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.36
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.41
Enterprise Value/Ebitda1.65
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$123.13Price Target Upside19.51% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering15
Exxon Mobil Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionExxon Mobil Corporation explores for and produces crude oil and natural gas in the United States and internationally. It operates through Upstream, Downstream, and Chemical segments. The company is also involved in the manufacture, trade, transport, and sale of crude oil, natural gas, petroleum products, petrochemicals, and other specialty products; manufactures and sells petrochemicals, including olefins, polyolefins, aromatics, and various other petrochemicals; and captures and stores carbon, hydrogen, and biofuels. As of December 31, 2021, it had approximately 20,528 net operated wells with proved reserves. The company was founded in 1870 and is headquartered in Irving, Texas.
How the Company Makes MoneyExxon Mobil makes money through its diversified operations in the oil and gas industry. The primary revenue streams include upstream activities, which involve the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas; downstream operations, which focus on refining and marketing petroleum products; and the chemical sector, which manufactures and sells petrochemicals. The company also engages in transportation and logistics of oil and gas products. Exxon Mobil's earnings are influenced by factors such as global energy demand, oil prices, refining margins, and efficiency in production and operations. Strategic partnerships and investments in technology development for sustainable energy solutions also contribute to the company's revenue.
Exxon Mobil Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Net Oil-Equivalent Production
Measures the total volume of oil and gas produced, providing insight into resource extraction efficiency, reserve management, and the company's capacity to generate revenue from its core operations.
Measures the total volume of oil and gas produced, providing insight into resource extraction efficiency, reserve management, and the company's capacity to generate revenue from its core operations.
Data provided by:
Main Street Data
Main Street DataExxon Mobil Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Exxon Mobil demonstrates strong financial health with solid profit margins and operational efficiency. The balance sheet is robust with conservative leverage and effective equity usage. However, recent free cash flow decline slightly tempers the outlook, though overall profitability and cash generation remain strong.Income Statement
Exxon Mobil shows a strong financial performance with robust profit margins. The TTM Gross Profit Margin stands at 24.6%, indicating efficient cost management. The Net Profit Margin at 9.7% reflects solid profitability. Revenue growth is modest at 0.8%, but consistent EBIT and EBITDA margins of 8.7% and 21.5% respectively highlight stable operational efficiency. Despite slight revenue fluctuations, the company maintains healthy margins.78
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet is solid with a Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 0.24, showcasing conservative leverage. A strong Return on Equity of 12.3% indicates effective use of equity to generate profits. The Equity Ratio of 59.7% suggests a stable capital structure with significant equity backing. Overall, the company maintains a well-balanced financial position with manageable debt levels.82
Very Positive
Cash Flow
Exxon Mobil's cash flow is robust, with an Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio of 1.61, indicating strong cash generation relative to net earnings. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio of 0.85 shows a healthy conversion of earnings into cash. The Free Cash Flow Growth Rate, however, is -8.3%, reflecting a recent decline, albeit from strong previous levels. Overall, cash flows remain strong with slight recent volatility.75
Positive
| Breakdown | |||||
| TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | ||||
| 339.89B | 339.25B | 334.70B | 398.68B | 276.69B | 178.57B | Gross Profit |
| 76.32B | 76.74B | 84.14B | 103.07B | 64.89B | 8.13B | EBIT |
| 29.70B | 39.65B | 44.46B | 64.03B | 24.02B | -29.45B | EBITDA |
| 73.42B | 73.31B | 74.27B | 102.59B | 52.79B | 18.28B | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 33.17B | 33.68B | 36.01B | 55.74B | 23.04B | -22.44B |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | ||||
| 17.04B | 23.19B | 31.54B | 29.64B | 6.80B | 4.36B | Total Assets |
| 451.91B | 453.48B | 376.32B | 369.07B | 338.92B | 332.75B | Total Debt |
| 37.55B | 68.78B | 47.71B | 41.19B | 47.70B | 67.64B | Net Debt |
| 20.52B | 45.59B | 16.14B | 11.55B | 40.90B | 63.28B | Total Liabilities |
| 182.10B | 182.87B | 163.78B | 166.59B | 163.24B | 168.62B | Stockholders Equity |
| 262.72B | 270.61B | 204.80B | 195.05B | 168.58B | 157.15B |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | ||||
| 28.18B | 30.72B | 33.45B | 58.39B | 36.05B | -2.61B | Operating Cash Flow |
| 53.31B | 55.02B | 55.37B | 76.80B | 48.13B | 14.67B | Investing Cash Flow |
| -19.49B | -19.94B | -20.04B | -14.74B | -10.23B | -18.46B | Financing Cash Flow |
| -48.08B | -42.79B | -33.53B | -37.64B | -35.42B | 5.29B |
Exxon Mobil Technical Analysis
Negative
103.03
Price Trends
107.94
Negative
107.77
Negative
110.81
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.67
Positive
40.63
Neutral
8.68
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For XOM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 103.03 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 105.64, below the 50-day MA of 107.94, and below the 200-day MA of 110.81, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.67 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.63 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.68 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for XOM.
Exxon Mobil Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (57)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $122.05B | 9.50 | 11.75% | 4.79% | -9.86% | -32.59% | |
76 Outperform | $194.69B | 15.19 | 7.40% | 4.19% | -2.62% | -20.13% | |
75 Outperform | $238.45B | 15.65 | 10.11% | 4.83% | -1.05% | -19.71% | |
74 Outperform | $444.02B | 13.63 | 14.18% | 3.77% | 2.36% | -7.18% | |
69 Neutral | $75.52B | 186.20 | -1.87% | 6.38% | -7.70% | -113.83% | |
68 Neutral | $73.65B | 9.01 | 11.25% | 15.51% | -10.84% | -61.73% | |
57 Neutral | $7.06B | 3.04 | -3.49% | 5.80% | 0.53% | -50.39% |
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
XOM
Exxon Mobil
103.03
-7.96
-7.17%
BP
BP
29.09
-6.14
-17.43%
CVX
Chevron
136.54
-15.59
-10.25%
PBR
Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras
11.84
-1.40
-10.57%
SHEL
Shell
66.30
-2.54
-3.69%
TTE
TotalEnergies
57.89
-11.11
-16.10%
Exxon Mobil Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 02, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: -1.70%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 25, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a mix of strong financial performance and strategic advancements, offset by significant market and policy uncertainties impacting prices and margins. Despite these challenges, ExxonMobil demonstrates resilience and potential for long-term growth.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance
Earnings for the quarter were $7.7 billion, up 4% sequentially excluding identified items. Cash flow from operations was $13 billion, leading all IOCs.
Cost Efficiency and Asset Divestments
Since 2019, ExxonMobil has taken $12.7 billion of structural costs out of the business and sold $24 billion of non-core assets, reshaping its portfolio and growing earnings power.
Advancements in Low Carbon Solutions
Progress in low-carbon solutions with expectations to generate $1 billion of earnings by 2030 from businesses insulated from commodity price cycles.
Proxxima Business Growth
ExxonMobil showcased a new high-strength EV battery case and announced a collaboration with Nordics Group, expecting to double Proxxima production capacity this year.
Negative Updates
Market and Policy Challenges
Uncertainty in tariffs and threats of increased OPEC supply are creating significant downward pressure on prices and margins.
Chemical Industry Challenges
The chemical industry is facing strong demand but even stronger growth in supply, creating a market glut and challenging margins.
Company Guidance
During ExxonMobil's First Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, the company provided robust guidance, highlighting its financial and strategic positioning amid market volatility. ExxonMobil reported earnings of $7.7 billion, a 4% sequential increase, and generated $13 billion in cash flow from operations, leading all International Oil Companies (IOCs). The company has achieved $12.7 billion in structural cost reductions since 2019, averaging nearly $2.5 billion annually, and sold $1.8 billion of assets in the quarter, completing $5 billion of incremental divestments. ExxonMobil's strategy aims to grow its earnings by $20 billion and cash flow by $30 billion by 2030. The company plans to lower its breakeven to $35 per barrel by 2027 and $30 per barrel by 2030, while maintaining capital expenditures between $28 billion and $33 billion annually through 2030. Additionally, ExxonMobil is focused on increasing its production from advantaged assets to over 60% by 2030, with a per barrel profit increase from $10 last year to $13 in 2030, and expects 80% growth in high-value products. The company is also investing in low carbon solutions, projecting $1 billion in earnings by 2030, and has returned $9.1 billion to shareholders, including $4.8 billion in share buybacks, marking a three-year total shareholder return of 60%.Exxon Mobil Corporate Events
Stock BuybackDividendsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Exxon Mobil Reports Strong Q1 2025 Earnings
Positive
May 2, 2025
Exxon Mobil reported first-quarter 2025 earnings of $7.7 billion, driven by strategic cost reductions and operational optimizations, despite a decline in industry refining margins. The company distributed $9.1 billion to shareholders, including dividends and share repurchases, and commenced operations at new facilities in China and Baytown, reinforcing its competitive market position.
Financial Disclosures
Exxon Mobil Previews Q1 2025 Financial Influences
Neutral
Apr 3, 2025
Exxon Mobil’s management has provided insights into factors expected to impact the company’s first-quarter 2025 results compared to the fourth quarter of 2024. These factors include market dynamics, planned activities, and seasonal demand patterns, but do not encompass all changes or estimate the earnings for 1Q 2025. The company noted potential effects from changes in liquid and gas prices, industry margins, and timing effects, as well as scheduled maintenance and seasonal factors. The announcement aims to give stakeholders an understanding of anticipated influences on financial outcomes, although it does not account for all adjustments and charges related to industry conditions.
Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Exxon Mobil Announces Leadership Change with McKee’s Retirement
Neutral
Apr 3, 2025
Karen T. McKee, president of ExxonMobil Product Solutions Company and vice president of Exxon Mobil Corporation, announced her retirement effective May 1, 2025. This leadership change may impact the company’s strategic direction and operations, influencing its market positioning and stakeholder relations.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.