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Exxon Mobil (XOM)
NYSE:XOM
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Exxon Mobil
(NYSE:XOM)
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Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$173.00
â–²(16.47% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:01/31/26
Overall score reflects resilient fundamentals and a strong balance sheet, supported by a positive earnings-call outlook focused on advantaged production growth, cost savings, and shareholder returns. The score is tempered by down-cycle financial momentum (revenue/FCF compression and higher debt), a stretched technical setup (overbought indicators), and a valuation that is not especially cheap given cyclicality.
Positive Factors
Cash Generation
Sustained large operating and free cash flows provide durable internal funding for high-return projects, dividends, and buybacks. Even with cyclical swings, ~$52B OCF and ~$24B FCF (TTM) underpin capital allocation flexibility and resilience across a multi‑year project pipeline.
Project Execution & Advantaged Assets
Repeatable, lower‑cost project delivery is a structural advantage: completing ten major projects and a 3x project pipeline versus peers reduces unit development costs and accelerates cash generation. This execution edge supports durable production growth and lowers breakeven on new barrels.
Balance Sheet Strength
Moderate leverage on a very large equity base gives the company financial flexibility through cycles. With D/E around 0.26 and substantial asset and equity bases, Exxon can sustain investment in mega projects and shareholder returns while absorbing cyclical cashflow volatility.
Negative Factors
Down-cycle Revenue & FCF Compression
A meaningful decline in revenue and a severe drop in FCF signal cyclical earnings sensitivity. Persistent weaker realizations and compressed cash conversion reduce the margin of safety for capital spending and returns, making results more exposed if commodity weakness continues.
Rising Total Debt
A rapid increase in debt reduces financial flexibility and raises fixed obligations. If the down-cycle endures, higher leverage could constrain discretionary buybacks, raise refinancing risk on long‑dated issuance, and limit the company’s ability to opportunistically invest.
Chemicals Margin Pressure
Structural capacity additions in chemicals create sustained margin pressure. Because Chemicals is a meaningful, higher‑capital segment, prolonged weaker spreads can drag consolidated margins and cash generation, reducing earnings stability even as upstream performance improves.
Exxon Mobil (XOM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$621.93B
Dividend Yield3.35%
Average Volume (3M)19.60M
Price to Earnings (P/E)22.3
Beta (1Y)0.29
Revenue Growth-4.17%
EPS Growth-14.15%
CountryUS
Employees61,000
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Integrated
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.71
Shares Outstanding4,166,763,700
10 Day Avg. Volume18,213,264
30 Day Avg. Volume19,601,522
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.20
Price to Book (P/B)2.01
Price to Sales (P/S)1.61
P/FCF Ratio22.07
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.13
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.17
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit10.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.36
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$144.63Price Target Upside-2.63% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering19
EPS Forecast (FY)6.77
Revenue Forecast (FY)$317.06B
Exxon Mobil Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionExxon Mobil Corporation explores for and produces crude oil and natural gas in the United States and internationally. It operates through Upstream, Downstream, and Chemical segments. The company is also involved in the manufacture, trade, transport, and sale of crude oil, natural gas, petroleum products, petrochemicals, and other specialty products; manufactures and sells petrochemicals, including olefins, polyolefins, aromatics, and various other petrochemicals; and captures and stores carbon, hydrogen, and biofuels. As of December 31, 2021, it had approximately 20,528 net operated wells with proved reserves. The company was founded in 1870 and is headquartered in Irving, Texas.
How the Company Makes MoneyExxon Mobil generates revenue primarily through the sale of crude oil, natural gas, refined petroleum products, and petrochemicals. The Upstream segment contributes significantly to its earnings through the extraction and sale of oil and gas, which are influenced by global commodity prices. The Downstream segment earns revenue by refining crude oil into various products such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, and by selling these products through a vast network of retail stations and wholesale markets. Additionally, the Chemical segment provides a stable revenue stream through the manufacture of chemical products that are essential for various industries. Exxon Mobil also benefits from long-term contracts and partnerships with other energy companies and governments, optimizing its production capabilities and market access. Factors such as fluctuations in oil prices, regulatory changes, and geopolitical events can also impact its earnings.
Exxon Mobil Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Net Oil-Equivalent Production
Measures the total volume of oil and gas produced, providing insight into resource extraction efficiency, reserve management, and the company's capacity to generate revenue from its core operations.
Measures the total volume of oil and gas produced, providing insight into resource extraction efficiency, reserve management, and the company's capacity to generate revenue from its core operations.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyExxon Mobil Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 30, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 24, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong operational execution, material emissions reductions, technology-driven growth, sizeable shareholder returns, and meaningful structural cost savings — with multiple advantaged growth engines (Guyana, Permian, LNG) and technology successes (Proxima, battery anodes, CCS). Headwinds include continued margin pressure in Chemicals from new supply, geopolitical/license uncertainty (notably parts of Guyana and Venezuela), and the need to scale new technologies commercially. On balance, positive operational and financial progress materially outweigh the noted risks and uncertainties.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Significant Emissions Reductions
As of 2025 Exxon has reduced corporate GHG intensity by more than 20%, upstream GHG intensity by more than 40%, and corporate flaring intensity by more than 60%; methane intensity reductions targeted to be met by year-end.
Strong Production and Unit Earnings
Upstream production averaged 4.7 million oil-equivalent barrels per day in 2025; unit earnings are more than double 2019 levels on a constant price basis; company achieved highest annual production in over 40 years.
Project Execution — All 10 Key Projects Delivered
Successfully commenced startup activities for all 10 key 2025 projects (including Golden Pass LNG and Proxima expansion); projects organization executes ~3x as many mega projects as nearest competitor at up to 20% lower cost and 20% faster delivery.
Guyana Operational Outperformance
Yellowtail came online ahead of schedule; gross production in Q4 was roughly 875,000 barrels per day; first four FPSOs producing ~100,000 barrels per day above investment basis.
Record Permian Performance and Technology Adoption
Permian delivered a Q4 record of 1.8 million boe/d and year-over-year Permian production is expected to be up ~200,000 boe/d; lightweight proppant deployed in ~25% of wells in 2025 and expected to reach ~50% of new wells by end of next year.
Shareholder Returns and Cash Returns
Annualized shareholder return of 29% over the past five years; $150 billion of distributions to shareholders over that period; $20 billion of share repurchases completed in 2025.
Portfolio High-Grading and Divestitures
Disciplined high-grading continued with portfolio divestments totaling about $25 billion since 2019; company is targeting advantaged, lower breakeven assets.
Technology & Product Innovation (Proxima and Batteries)
Proxima Systems more than tripled capacity in 2025; Proxima-based rebar delivers ~40% improvement in installation efficiency; advanced battery anode graphite shows ~30% faster charging, up to 3% higher available capacity and up to 4x battery life in tests.
Carbon Capture and Storage Progress
Brought first third-party CCS project online capable of storing up to 2 million tons/year, secured seventh CCS contract; combined projects represent roughly 9 million tons/year of sequestered CO2.
Structural Cost Savings and Digital Transformation
Captured structural cost savings of $15 billion through 2025 (company states this is greater than all other IOCs combined); consolidating ERP/data platform from >10 systems to a single construct, targeting 97% fewer profit centers and 70% fewer cost centers to enable scale, automation and AI.
LNG Project Pipeline and Near-Term Startups
Golden Pass mechanically completed in Q4 and commissioning underway; first LNG expected in early March; Mozambique and Papua New Guinea project designs described as cost-competitive with potential FID timing (Mozambique possibly H2).
Negative Updates
Chemicals Segment Margin Pressure
Base Chemicals facing a tough environment: demand is robust but margins compressed due to new supply/capacity additions globally, weighing on segment profitability.
Geopolitical and License Uncertainties in Guyana
Portion of Stabroek Block remains under force majeure due to Venezuela border dispute; Stabroek license scheduled to expire in 2027 — outcomes depend on ICJ ruling and diplomatic developments, creating medium-term uncertainty over acreage access.
Venezuela Investment Constraints
Company characterizes Venezuela as currently 'uninvestable' under existing fiscal and legal terms; barrels there are high-cost and would require resolved fiscal terms and stabilization before meaningful re-entry.
Commercialization and Scale Risks for New Technologies
Promising battery anode graphite and lithium initiatives show performance gains but require scalable, cost-competitive production to realize value; lithium cost position still under demonstration and subject to price/cost risk.
Timing, Seasonality and 'Lumpy' Production
Management cautioned that quarterly results can be 'lumpy' (timing of cubes/startups), advising against extrapolating a single-quarter production pace to full-year outcomes; some project timelines (e.g., Mozambique) have experienced prior force majeure delays.
No Specific Base Decline Metric Provided
Analyst request for an explicit underlying base decline rate in the upstream portfolio was not answered with a numeric decline rate, leaving some visibility gaps for decline assumptions.
Company Guidance
The call reiterated strong execution and quantified targets: Exxon said it has already met its 2030 GHG and flaring plans (corporate GHG intensity down >20%, upstream GHG intensity down >40%, corporate flaring intensity down >60%, and methane‑intensity reductions expected by year‑end), reported 2025 upstream production averaging 4.7 million boe/d (Q4 Permian record 1.8 million boe/d) and expects advantaged assets to be ~65% of production by 2030 with the Permian to exceed 2.5 million boe/d beyond 2030; the company delivered all 10 key 2025 projects, expects Golden Pass first LNG in early March, sees product‑solutions projects driving earnings growth through 2030 with ~60% of that growth from assets already online, tripled Proxima capacity this year, deployed lightweight proppant in ~25% of wells in 2025 (target ~50% of new wells by year‑end), advanced CCS to roughly 9 million t/yr contracted capacity (including a first third‑party project able to store up to 2 million t/yr), captured ~$15 billion of structural cost savings through 2025, completed $20 billion of share repurchases in 2025 (retiring one‑third of Pioneer issuance), returned $150 billion to shareholders over five years with a 29% annualized return, and emphasized project execution advantages (about 3× as many mega‑projects as the nearest competitor at up to 20% lower cost and 20% faster delivery).Exxon Mobil Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Financials remain resilient with solid TTM profitability (net margin ~9.2%) and strong absolute cash generation (OCF ~$52B; FCF ~$24B). Offsetting this, results are clearly down-cycle: revenue declined ~31% TTM, FCF fell sharply (~-69% TTM), cash conversion weakened, and total debt rose meaningfully versus 2024 (about $70B vs ~$42B).Income Statement
Profitability remains solid in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) with a net margin of ~9.2% and operating margin of ~10.3%, but results are clearly down-cycle versus 2022–2023 (when margins and earnings were materially higher). Revenue declined ~31% in TTM after modest growth in 2024, highlighting commodity sensitivity and weaker pricing/realizations. Overall: strong absolute earnings power, but weakening trend and higher volatility keep the score below top-tier.72
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet is a key strength: leverage is moderate in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) with debt-to-equity ~0.26 supported by a very large equity base (~$259B) and assets (~$449B). Returns on equity remain healthy (~11% TTM), though down from the peak levels seen in 2022–2023. Main watch-out is the sharp rise in total debt in TTM versus 2024 (around $70B vs ~$42B), which reduces flexibility if the down-cycle persists.82
Very Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is still solid in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) with operating cash flow of ~$52B and free cash flow of ~$24B, but free cash flow has stepped down meaningfully (FCF growth ~-69% TTM). Cash conversion also softened: free cash flow is ~46% of net income (down from ~56–76% in prior years) and operating cash flow relative to net income is lower than 2022–2024. Strength is continued positive free cash flow; weakness is the sharp compression from prior-cycle highs.66
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 323.90B | 339.25B | 334.70B | 398.68B | 276.69B |
| Gross Profit | 70.23B | 76.74B | 84.14B | 103.07B | 64.89B |
| EBITDA | 67.86B | 73.31B | 74.27B | 102.59B | 52.79B |
| Net Income | 28.84B | 33.68B | 36.01B | 55.74B | 23.04B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 448.98B | 453.48B | 376.32B | 369.07B | 338.92B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 10.68B | 23.03B | 31.54B | 29.64B | 6.80B |
| Total Debt | 43.54B | 41.71B | 41.57B | 41.19B | 47.70B |
| Total Liabilities | 182.35B | 182.87B | 163.78B | 166.59B | 163.24B |
| Stockholders Equity | 259.39B | 263.70B | 204.80B | 195.05B | 168.58B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 23.61B | 30.72B | 33.45B | 58.39B | 36.05B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 51.97B | 55.02B | 55.37B | 76.80B | 48.13B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -26.54B | -19.94B | -20.04B | -14.74B | -10.23B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -38.47B | -42.79B | -33.53B | -39.11B | -35.42B |
Exxon Mobil Technical Analysis
Positive
148.54
Price Trends
133.19
Positive
123.70
Positive
115.58
Positive
Market Momentum
4.59
Positive
59.62
Neutral
38.26
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For XOM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 148.54 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 147.33, above the 50-day MA of 133.19, and above the 200-day MA of 115.58, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 4.59 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 59.62 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 38.26 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for XOM.
Exxon Mobil Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $373.19B | 27.97 | 7.26% | 4.54% | -3.44% | -22.05% | |
73 Outperform | $621.93B | 22.28 | 11.03% | 3.35% | -4.17% | -14.15% | |
72 Outperform | $51.24B | 32.23 | 6.86% | 2.39% | -2.48% | -65.26% | |
71 Outperform | $227.59B | 13.31 | 10.13% | 3.92% | -6.96% | 0.03% | |
69 Neutral | $60.80B | 26.33 | 9.69% | 2.74% | -8.48% | -56.92% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
60 Neutral | $98.32B | 1,841.35 | 0.13% | 5.62% | -4.11% | -37.59% |
* Energy Sector Average
XOM
Exxon Mobil
148.54
40.91
38.01%
BP
BP
37.99
6.70
21.39%
CVX
Chevron
184.16
32.37
21.33%
OXY
Occidental Petroleum
51.43
3.64
7.62%
SHEL
Shell
81.18
16.32
25.17%
VLO
Valero Energy
203.79
76.79
60.47%
Exxon Mobil Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Exxon Mobil Posts Strong 2025 Results, Highlights Shareholder Returns
Positive
Jan 30, 2026
On January 30, 2026, Exxon Mobil reported fourth-quarter 2025 earnings of $6.5 billion and full-year 2025 earnings of $28.8 billion, with cash flow from operations of $52.0 billion and free cash flow of $26.1 billion. Despite lower crude prices, weaker chemical margins and higher costs pulling earnings below 2024 levels, the company delivered its highest annual upstream production in more than 40 years, record refinery throughput, and distributed $37.2 billion to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. Management highlighted cumulative structural cost savings of $15.1 billion since 2019, industry-leading returns on capital employed and shareholder returns versus international oil company peers, as well as meeting its 2030 corporate greenhouse gas emissions and flaring-intensity reduction plans based on preliminary 2025 data, underscoring a strategy of disciplined capital allocation, balance-sheet strength and scale-driven growth to sustain profitability and investor payouts.
The most recent analyst rating on (XOM) stock is a Buy with a $153.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Exxon Mobil stock, see the XOM Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Exxon Mobil Issues Q4 2025 Performance Outlook Update
Negative
Jan 7, 2026
Exxon Mobil outlined management’s current view of the main market, seasonal and planned factors expected to affect its fourth-quarter 2025 results compared with the third quarter of 2025, when the company reported U.S. GAAP earnings of $7.5 billion and non-GAAP earnings of $8.1 billion. The company highlighted potential headwinds from lower liquids prices in the Upstream segment and impairments across Upstream, Energy Products, and Chemical Products, partly offset by improved industry margins in Energy Products, divestment gains in Energy Products, tax-related items across several segments, and year-end inventory and maintenance effects, while stressing that these ranges are directional, exclude operating performance and other variables, and do not constitute an earnings forecast.
The most recent analyst rating on (XOM) stock is a Buy with a $130.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Exxon Mobil stock, see the XOM Stock Forecast page.
Executive/Board Changes
Exxon Mobil Announces CFO Retirement and Successor
Neutral
Dec 9, 2025
On December 8, 2025, Exxon Mobil announced that Kathryn A. Mikells, the Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, will retire effective February 1, 2026, to focus on her health recovery. Neil A. Hansen has been elected to succeed her, bringing extensive experience from his previous roles within the company, including his recent position as President of ExxonMobil Global Business Solutions.
The most recent analyst rating on (XOM) stock is a Buy with a $132.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Exxon Mobil stock, see the XOM Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and Strategy
ExxonMobil to Unveil Corporate Plan on Dec 9
Neutral
Nov 18, 2025
ExxonMobil announced plans to release details of its Corporate Plan, including capital plans up to 2030, on December 9, 2025. The release will be available on the company’s website, accompanied by a live broadcast and Q&A session with analysts, potentially impacting stakeholders by providing insights into the company’s future strategies.
The most recent analyst rating on (XOM) stock is a Buy with a $144.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Exxon Mobil stock, see the XOM Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Exxon Mobil Issues Floating Rate Notes for 2075
Neutral
Nov 13, 2025
On November 7, 2025, Exxon Mobil Corporation entered into an underwriting agreement for the issuance and sale of $111,949,000 in Floating Rate Notes due 2075. This financial move is part of the company’s strategic efforts to manage its long-term debt and strengthen its financial position, potentially impacting its market standing and stakeholder interests.
The most recent analyst rating on (XOM) stock is a Buy with a $144.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Exxon Mobil stock, see the XOM Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.