Exxon Mobil (XOM)
NYSE:XOM
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Exxon Mobil
(NYSE:XOM)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$166.00
▲(13.36% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:05/03/26
The score is driven primarily by solid fundamentals anchored by a conservative balance sheet and still-healthy profitability, tempered by weaker free-cash-flow conversion versus prior years. Technicals are mixed with subdued momentum, and valuation is a headwind given the elevated P/E despite a moderate dividend yield. Earnings-call execution progress supports the outlook, but notable geopolitical/LNG repair and chemicals margin risks cap the score.
Positive Factors
Conservative balance sheet
A low debt-to-equity (~0.19) and a strengthened equity base provide structural resilience through commodity cycles. This balance-sheet conservatism preserves financial flexibility for capex, M&A, or shareholder returns and reduces refinancing risk across 2–6+ months of market stress.
Negative Factors
Weakened free cash flow conversion
Free cash flow has fallen materially versus prior years and covers less than half of net income in TTM, signaling weaker cash conversion. Over 2–6 months this constrains discretionary investment, limits margin for error on dividends/buybacks, and reduces buffers for higher capex or working capital.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Conservative balance sheet
A low debt-to-equity (~0.19) and a strengthened equity base provide structural resilience through commodity cycles. This balance-sheet conservatism preserves financial flexibility for capex, M&A, or shareholder returns and reduces refinancing risk across 2–6+ months of market stress.
Read all positive factors
Exxon Mobil (XOM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$634.91B
Dividend Yield3.35%
Average Volume (3M)23.73M
Price to Earnings (P/E)42.4
Beta (1Y)0.11
Revenue Growth-4.19%
EPS Growth-21.78%
CountryUS
Employees61,000
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Integrated
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.16
Shares Outstanding4,156,559,600
10 Day Avg. Volume21,676,634
30 Day Avg. Volume23,734,877
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.20
Price to Book (P/B)2.01
Price to Sales (P/S)1.61
P/FCF Ratio22.07
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.11
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.15
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.45
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.62
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$168.74Price Target Upside15.23% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering20
EPS Forecast (FY)9.9
Revenue Forecast (FY)$379.25B
Exxon Mobil Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Exxon Mobil Corporation explores for and produces crude oil and natural gas in the United States and internationally. It operates through Upstream, Downstream, and Chemical segments. The company is also involved in the manufacture, trade, transpor...
How the Company Makes Money
Exxon Mobil makes money primarily by selling energy and chemical products produced through its integrated operations. (1) Upstream (oil and gas production): Exxon Mobil generates revenue from producing and selling crude oil, natural gas, and natur...
Exxon Mobil Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Net Oil-Equivalent Production
Measures the total volume of oil and gas produced, providing insight into resource extraction efficiency, reserve management, and the company's capacity to generate revenue from its core operations.
Measures the total volume of oil and gas produced, providing insight into resource extraction efficiency, reserve management, and the company's capacity to generate revenue from its core operations.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyExxon Mobil Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 01, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized operational resilience, multiple material execution wins (record Guyana production, Golden Pass Train 1 start, Permian growth trajectory, Beaumont payback, strong Energy Products earnings, and carbon capture progress) that demonstrate strong underlying business momentum and portfolio advantage. However, significant near- and medium-term challenges remain from geopolitical supply disruptions (damaged LNG trains with multi-year repair estimates and inventory drawdowns), transient timing/identified financial effects, and spot margin pressures in chemicals. On balance, the positive execution, financial performance (underlying EPS up vs 2025) and strategic progress materially outweigh the notable but addressable lowlights.Positive Updates
Operational Resilience and Production Growth
Upstream production, excluding external impacts (Middle East disruptions, Kazakhstan drone attacks, and the Permian winter storm), was up 8% year over year, demonstrating benefit from a global, diversified portfolio and advantaged assets in the Permian and Guyana.
Negative Updates
Damage to Qatar LNG Trains and Prolonged Repair Timeline
Two LNG trains operated with Cutter Energy were damaged in the Middle East conflict; Cutter estimates repair time of roughly 3 to 5 years. Exxon noted those damaged trains represent about 3% of the company's global production, creating a material near- to medium-term supply impact.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Operational Resilience and Production Growth
Upstream production, excluding external impacts (Middle East disruptions, Kazakhstan drone attacks, and the Permian winter storm), was up 8% year over year, demonstrating benefit from a global, diversified portfolio and advantaged assets in the Permian and Guyana.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
On the call management gave specific operational and timing guidance: full‑year Permian production is on track to reach about 1.8 million oil‑equivalent barrels per day in 2026 (with a longer‑term ambition toward ~2.5 mm b/d), Golden Pass Train 1 achieved first LNG in March (adding roughly +5% to 2025 U.S. exports with Train 2 mechanically complete by year‑end and Train 3 mechanically complete into Q2 next year, and the three‑train project ultimately boosting U.S. exports by ~15%), two damaged LNG trains tied to Cutter Energy represent roughly 3% of ExxonMobil’s global production with repair timelines currently estimated at ~3–5 years, refinery throughput rose ~200 thousand barrels per day from February to March, Q1 Energy Products earnings were $2.8 billion (up ~$2.0 billion year‑over‑year), upstream production excluding external impacts was up ~8% year‑over‑year, Guyana hit record production with Oahu first oil expected late this year, the company plans to start facilities to capture an additional ~4 million tons/year of CO2 through this year and next, continuous methane monitoring is implemented across key New Mexico assets, and the new enterprise workforce/payroll system is live in more than 50 countries.Exxon Mobil Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
73
Positive
Balance Sheet
82
Very Positive
Cash Flow
64
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 326.01B | 323.90B | 339.25B | 334.70B | 398.68B | 276.69B |
| Gross Profit | 83.11B | 70.23B | 76.74B | 84.14B | 103.07B | 64.89B |
| EBITDA | 60.44B | 67.86B | 73.31B | 74.27B | 102.59B | 52.79B |
| Net Income | 25.31B | 28.84B | 33.68B | 36.01B | 55.74B | 23.04B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 464.41B | 448.98B | 453.48B | 376.32B | 369.07B | 338.92B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 8.44B | 10.68B | 23.03B | 31.54B | 29.64B | 6.80B |
| Total Debt | 47.66B | 43.54B | 41.71B | 41.57B | 41.19B | 47.70B |
| Total Liabilities | 203.41B | 182.35B | 182.87B | 163.78B | 166.59B | 163.24B |
| Stockholders Equity | 254.38B | 259.39B | 263.70B | 204.80B | 195.05B | 168.58B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 18.79B | 23.61B | 30.72B | 33.45B | 58.39B | 36.05B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 47.72B | 51.97B | 55.02B | 55.37B | 76.80B | 48.13B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -28.01B | -26.54B | -19.94B | -20.04B | -14.74B | -10.23B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -30.19B | -38.47B | -42.79B | -33.53B | -39.11B | -35.42B |
Exxon Mobil Technical Analysis
Neutral
146.44
Price Trends
154.61
Negative
138.92
Positive
124.74
Positive
Market Momentum
-1.56
Positive
36.52
Neutral
18.90
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For XOM, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 146.44 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 159.44, below the 50-day MA of 154.61, and above the 200-day MA of 124.74, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.56 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.52 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.90 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for XOM.
Exxon Mobil Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $58.22B | 16.93 | 6.43% | 2.39% | -8.04% | -36.48% | |
71 Outperform | $380.38B | 22.91 | 7.32% | 4.54% | -3.70% | -33.98% | |
71 Outperform | $249.88B | 12.10 | 10.06% | 3.92% | -5.79% | 19.45% | |
67 Neutral | $634.91B | 42.42 | 11.04% | 3.35% | -4.19% | -21.78% | |
67 Neutral | $73.80B | 14.57 | 9.88% | 2.74% | -2.53% | 385.02% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
59 Neutral | $120.19B | 7.90 | 5.52% | 5.62% | 4.29% | ― |
* Energy Sector Average
XOM
Exxon Mobil
152.75
52.91
53.00%
BP
BP
46.41
18.84
68.32%
CVX
Chevron
190.63
60.97
47.02%
OXY
Occidental Petroleum
58.71
20.72
54.55%
SHEL
Shell
88.98
26.37
42.13%
VLO
Valero Energy
246.87
130.94
112.94%
Exxon Mobil Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
ExxonMobil Reports Lower Q1 2026 Earnings, Highlights Resilience
Neutral
May 1, 2026
On May 1, 2026, ExxonMobil reported first-quarter 2026 earnings of $4.2 billion, or $1.00 per diluted share, down from $7.7 billion a year earlier, with earnings of $8.8 billion when excluding identified items and unfavorable estimated timing effe...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Exxon Mobil Updates Q1 2026 Outlook Amid Disruptions
Negative
Apr 8, 2026
Exxon Mobil outlined factors expected to affect its first-quarter 2026 results versus the fourth quarter of 2025, starting from a 4Q25 GAAP profit of $6.5 billion, or $7.3 billion excluding identified items, across its major business segments. Man...
Private Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Exxon Mobil Issues New Long-Dated Floating Rate Notes
Positive
Apr 1, 2026
On March 26, 2026, Exxon Mobil Corporation entered into an underwriting agreement with a syndicate led by RBC Capital Markets, J.P. Morgan Securities and UBS Securities to issue and sell $169.3 million in aggregate principal amount of floating rat...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Exxon Mobil Director Jeffrey Ubben to Exit Board
Neutral
Feb 20, 2026
On February 18, 2026, Exxon Mobil announced that director Jeffrey W. Ubben will not stand for re-election at the company’s annual shareholders’ meeting scheduled for May 27, 2026, for reasons the company said are unrelated to Exxon Mob...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.