Exxon Mobil (XOM) AI Stock Analysis

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Exxon Mobil

(NYSE:XOM)

Rating:74Outperform

Price Target:

$119.00

▲(14.95%Upside)

Exxon Mobil exhibits robust financial health and strategic foresight, underpinned by strong earnings and operational efficiency. While technical indicators suggest cautious momentum, the company's fair valuation and positive earnings outlook support a strong stock position. Challenges such as market uncertainties and recent cash flow fluctuations are noted but do not overshadow the overall strength.

Positive Factors

Earnings Performance

The Chemicals segment reported adjusted earnings above forecasts, demonstrating strong performance in this area.

Financial Performance

Exxon Mobil Corp. highlighted $12.7 billion of cumulative structural cost savings, contributing to a positive financial outlook.

Growth Projects

XOM plans to deliver 10 key growth projects across its portfolio this year, driving more than $3 billion of incremental earnings by 2026 at both normalized and current industry margins.

Negative Factors

Cash Flow Expectations

Overall, cash flow was below relative to expectations during the quarter, at approximately $13.8 billion versus the consensus at approximately $14.2 billion.

Earnings Impact

In 2Q25 upstream scheduled maintenance is expected to have a $310-$470MM earnings impact and volumes are expected to be net -100kboed due to this maintenance.

Free Cash Flow Valuation

XOM appears expensive on 2025 free cash flow at 5% though fairly valued on 2026 at 6.5%.

Exxon Mobil (XOM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$444.02B

Dividend Yield3.77%

Average Volume (3M)14.30M

Price to Earnings (P/E)13.6

Beta (1Y)0.38

Revenue Growth2.36%

EPS Growth-7.18%

CountryUS

Employees61,000

SectorEnergy

Sector Strength45

IndustryOil & Gas Integrated

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)1.76

Shares Outstanding4,309,638,700

10 Day Avg. Volume14,356,427

30 Day Avg. Volume14,302,485

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-3.62

Price to Book (P/B)1.70

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio15.76

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.10

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.36

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.41

Enterprise Value/Ebitda1.65

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$123.13

Price Target Upside18.94% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering15

Exxon Mobil Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionExxon Mobil Corporation explores for and produces crude oil and natural gas in the United States and internationally. It operates through Upstream, Downstream, and Chemical segments. The company is also involved in the manufacture, trade, transport, and sale of crude oil, natural gas, petroleum products, petrochemicals, and other specialty products; manufactures and sells petrochemicals, including olefins, polyolefins, aromatics, and various other petrochemicals; and captures and stores carbon, hydrogen, and biofuels. As of December 31, 2021, it had approximately 20,528 net operated wells with proved reserves. The company was founded in 1870 and is headquartered in Irving, Texas.

How the Company Makes MoneyExxon Mobil makes money through its diversified operations in the oil and gas industry. The primary revenue streams include upstream activities, which involve the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas; downstream operations, which focus on refining and marketing petroleum products; and the chemical sector, which manufactures and sells petrochemicals. The company also engages in transportation and logistics of oil and gas products. Exxon Mobil's earnings are influenced by factors such as global energy demand, oil prices, refining margins, and efficiency in production and operations. Strategic partnerships and investments in technology development for sustainable energy solutions also contribute to the company's revenue.

Exxon Mobil Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Net Oil-Equivalent Production

Net Oil-Equivalent Production
Measures the total volume of oil and gas produced, providing insight into resource extraction efficiency, reserve management, and the company's capacity to generate revenue from its core operations.

Chart InsightsExxonMobil's net oil-equivalent production has surged, particularly in liquids, reflecting strategic asset optimization and cost efficiencies. The latest earnings call highlights robust financial health, with significant structural cost reductions and asset divestments enhancing earnings potential. Despite market volatility and policy uncertainties, ExxonMobil's focus on advantaged assets and low carbon solutions positions it for sustained growth. The company's strategic initiatives to lower breakeven costs and increase high-value product output underscore its resilience and long-term profitability prospects, making it a compelling investment amid industry challenges.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

Exxon Mobil Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 02, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: -1.23%|

Next Earnings Date:Jul 25, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call reflects a mix of strong financial performance and strategic advancements, offset by significant market and policy uncertainties impacting prices and margins. Despite these challenges, ExxonMobil demonstrates resilience and potential for long-term growth.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Financial Performance

Earnings for the quarter were $7.7 billion, up 4% sequentially excluding identified items. Cash flow from operations was $13 billion, leading all IOCs.

Cost Efficiency and Asset Divestments

Since 2019, ExxonMobil has taken $12.7 billion of structural costs out of the business and sold $24 billion of non-core assets, reshaping its portfolio and growing earnings power.

Advancements in Low Carbon Solutions

Progress in low-carbon solutions with expectations to generate $1 billion of earnings by 2030 from businesses insulated from commodity price cycles.

Proxxima Business Growth

ExxonMobil showcased a new high-strength EV battery case and announced a collaboration with Nordics Group, expecting to double Proxxima production capacity this year.

Negative Updates

Market and Policy Challenges

Uncertainty in tariffs and threats of increased OPEC supply are creating significant downward pressure on prices and margins.

Chemical Industry Challenges

The chemical industry is facing strong demand but even stronger growth in supply, creating a market glut and challenging margins.

Company Guidance

During ExxonMobil's First Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, the company provided robust guidance, highlighting its financial and strategic positioning amid market volatility. ExxonMobil reported earnings of $7.7 billion, a 4% sequential increase, and generated $13 billion in cash flow from operations, leading all International Oil Companies (IOCs). The company has achieved $12.7 billion in structural cost reductions since 2019, averaging nearly $2.5 billion annually, and sold $1.8 billion of assets in the quarter, completing $5 billion of incremental divestments. ExxonMobil's strategy aims to grow its earnings by $20 billion and cash flow by $30 billion by 2030. The company plans to lower its breakeven to $35 per barrel by 2027 and $30 per barrel by 2030, while maintaining capital expenditures between $28 billion and $33 billion annually through 2030. Additionally, ExxonMobil is focused on increasing its production from advantaged assets to over 60% by 2030, with a per barrel profit increase from $10 last year to $13 in 2030, and expects 80% growth in high-value products. The company is also investing in low carbon solutions, projecting $1 billion in earnings by 2030, and has returned $9.1 billion to shareholders, including $4.8 billion in share buybacks, marking a three-year total shareholder return of 60%.

Exxon Mobil Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Exxon Mobil demonstrates strong financial health with solid profit margins and operational efficiency. The balance sheet is robust with conservative leverage and effective equity usage. However, recent free cash flow decline slightly tempers the outlook, though overall profitability and cash generation remain strong.

Income Statement

Positive

Exxon Mobil shows a strong financial performance with robust profit margins. The TTM Gross Profit Margin stands at 24.6%, indicating efficient cost management. The Net Profit Margin at 9.7% reflects solid profitability. Revenue growth is modest at 0.8%, but consistent EBIT and EBITDA margins of 8.7% and 21.5% respectively highlight stable operational efficiency. Despite slight revenue fluctuations, the company maintains healthy margins.

Balance Sheet

Very Positive

The balance sheet is solid with a Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 0.24, showcasing conservative leverage. A strong Return on Equity of 12.3% indicates effective use of equity to generate profits. The Equity Ratio of 59.7% suggests a stable capital structure with significant equity backing. Overall, the company maintains a well-balanced financial position with manageable debt levels.

Cash Flow

Positive

Exxon Mobil's cash flow is robust, with an Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio of 1.61, indicating strong cash generation relative to net earnings. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio of 0.85 shows a healthy conversion of earnings into cash. The Free Cash Flow Growth Rate, however, is -8.3%, reflecting a recent decline, albeit from strong previous levels. Overall, cash flows remain strong with slight recent volatility.

TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
339.89B	339.25B	334.70B	398.68B	276.69B	178.57B
	Gross Profit
76.32B	76.74B	84.14B	103.07B	64.89B	8.13B
	EBIT
29.70B	39.65B	44.46B	64.03B	24.02B	-29.45B
	EBITDA
73.42B	73.31B	74.27B	102.59B	52.79B	18.28B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
33.17B	33.68B	36.01B	55.74B	23.04B	-22.44B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
17.04B	23.19B	31.54B	29.64B	6.80B	4.36B
	Total Assets
451.91B	453.48B	376.32B	369.07B	338.92B	332.75B
	Total Debt
37.55B	68.78B	47.71B	41.19B	47.70B	67.64B
	Net Debt
20.52B	45.59B	16.14B	11.55B	40.90B	63.28B
	Total Liabilities
182.10B	182.87B	163.78B	166.59B	163.24B	168.62B
	Stockholders Equity
262.72B	270.61B	204.80B	195.05B	168.58B	157.15B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
28.18B	30.72B	33.45B	58.39B	36.05B	-2.61B
	Operating Cash Flow
53.31B	55.02B	55.37B	76.80B	48.13B	14.67B
	Investing Cash Flow
-19.49B	-19.94B	-20.04B	-14.74B	-10.23B	-18.46B
	Financing Cash Flow
-48.08B	-42.79B	-33.53B	-37.64B	-35.42B	5.29B

Exxon Mobil Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price103.52

Price Trends

50DMA

107.79

Negative

100DMA

107.76

Negative

200DMA

110.77

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.76

Positive

RSI

42.46

Neutral

STOCH

16.35

Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For XOM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 103.52 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 105.44, below the 50-day MA of 107.79, and below the 200-day MA of 110.77, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.76 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.46 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.35 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for XOM.

Exxon Mobil Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (57)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TTE	77 Outperform	$121.85B	9.50	11.75%	4.79%	-9.86%	-32.59%
SHEL	76 Outperform	$194.69B	15.19	7.40%	4.19%	-2.62%	-20.13%
CVX	75 Outperform	$238.45B	15.65	10.11%	4.83%	-1.05%	-19.71%
XOM	74 Outperform	$444.02B	13.63	14.18%	3.77%	2.36%	-7.18%
BP	69 Neutral	$75.45B	186.20	-1.87%	6.38%	-7.70%	-113.83%
PBR	68 Neutral	$73.38B	9.01	11.25%	15.51%	-10.84%	-61.73%
Sector *	57 Neutral	$7.06B	3.04	-3.49%	5.80%	0.53%	-50.39%

* Energy Sector Average

Performance Comparison

XOM

Exxon Mobil

103.52

-7.47

-6.73%

29.15

-6.08

-17.26%

CVX

Chevron

137.83

-14.30

-9.40%

PBR

Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras

11.92

-1.32

-9.97%

SHEL

Shell

66.69

-2.15

-3.12%

TTE

TotalEnergies

58.49

-10.51

-15.23%

Exxon Mobil Corporate Events

Stock BuybackDividendsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures

Exxon Mobil Reports Strong Q1 2025 Earnings

Positive

May 2, 2025

Exxon Mobil reported first-quarter 2025 earnings of $7.7 billion, driven by strategic cost reductions and operational optimizations, despite a decline in industry refining margins. The company distributed $9.1 billion to shareholders, including dividends and share repurchases, and commenced operations at new facilities in China and Baytown, reinforcing its competitive market position.

Financial Disclosures

Exxon Mobil Previews Q1 2025 Financial Influences

Neutral

Apr 3, 2025

Exxon Mobil’s management has provided insights into factors expected to impact the company’s first-quarter 2025 results compared to the fourth quarter of 2024. These factors include market dynamics, planned activities, and seasonal demand patterns, but do not encompass all changes or estimate the earnings for 1Q 2025. The company noted potential effects from changes in liquid and gas prices, industry margins, and timing effects, as well as scheduled maintenance and seasonal factors. The announcement aims to give stakeholders an understanding of anticipated influences on financial outcomes, although it does not account for all adjustments and charges related to industry conditions.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy

Exxon Mobil Announces Leadership Change with McKee’s Retirement

Neutral

Apr 3, 2025

Karen T. McKee, president of ExxonMobil Product Solutions Company and vice president of Exxon Mobil Corporation, announced her retirement effective May 1, 2025. This leadership change may impact the company’s strategic direction and operations, influencing its market positioning and stakeholder relations.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.