Exxon Mobil (XOM) AI Stock Analysis

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Exxon Mobil

(NYSE:XOM)

Rating:74Outperform

Price Target:

$123.00

▲(12.19%Upside)

Exxon Mobil's strong financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment are the most significant contributors to its overall score. The company's valuation is reasonable, supporting its investment case. Technical analysis indicates a stable outlook, with no strong momentum in either direction. Despite some market challenges, Exxon Mobil's strategic focus on high-return assets and technological advancements positions it well for future growth.

Positive Factors

Earnings Performance

ExxonMobil reported stronger than expected results, with upstream earnings driven by strong liquids production.

Operational Performance

Permian production surpassed the fiscal year guidance, showcasing strong operational performance.

Negative Factors

Oil Price Uncertainty

Caution on near-term oil price as Saudi barrels come to market keeps the stock rating at Neutral.

Project Timing

Questions remain around the potential timing of future projects, specifically in low carbon solutions.

Exxon Mobil (XOM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$472.51B

Dividend Yield3.58%

Average Volume (3M)15.52M

Price to Earnings (P/E)15.5

Beta (1Y)0.32

Revenue Growth-3.63%

EPS Growth-15.40%

CountryUS

Employees61,000

SectorEnergy

Sector Strength57

IndustryOil & Gas Integrated

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)1.64

Shares Outstanding4,309,638,700

10 Day Avg. Volume14,734,378

30 Day Avg. Volume15,518,938

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)0.00

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio0.00

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.05

Enterprise Value/Revenue1.46

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.52

Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.78

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$125.33

Price Target Upside14.31% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering15

Exxon Mobil Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionExxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) is one of the world's largest publicly traded international oil and gas companies. Headquartered in Irving, Texas, ExxonMobil operates across all sectors of the oil and gas industry, including exploration, production, refining, and distribution. The company is engaged in the production of crude oil and natural gas, the manufacture of petroleum products, and the marketing of its products. It also has interests in chemical manufacturing and electric power generation. ExxonMobil's core products include fuels, lubricants, and petrochemicals, serving a diverse customer base worldwide.

How the Company Makes MoneyExxonMobil generates revenue through several key streams, primarily from the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas. This upstream segment involves locating oil and gas reserves, drilling wells, and extracting resources. The downstream segment, which includes refining and marketing, involves processing crude oil into petroleum products like gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, and then distributing these products to consumers and businesses. ExxonMobil also has a significant chemical division that produces and sells petrochemicals such as olefins, aromatics, polyethylene, and specialty products. The company's revenue is influenced by global oil and gas prices, production volumes, refining margins, and chemical product demand. Strategic partnerships and joint ventures also play a role in ExxonMobil's earnings, allowing the company to expand its reach and capabilities in key markets worldwide.

Exxon Mobil Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Net Oil-Equivalent Production

Net Oil-Equivalent Production
Measures the total volume of oil and gas produced, providing insight into resource extraction efficiency, reserve management, and the company's capacity to generate revenue from its core operations.

Chart InsightsExxonMobil's net oil-equivalent production has surged, particularly in liquids, reflecting strategic asset optimization and cost efficiencies. The latest earnings call highlights robust financial health, with significant structural cost reductions and asset divestments enhancing earnings potential. Despite market volatility and policy uncertainties, ExxonMobil's focus on advantaged assets and low carbon solutions positions it for sustained growth. The company's strategic initiatives to lower breakeven costs and increase high-value product output underscore its resilience and long-term profitability prospects, making it a compelling investment amid industry challenges.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

Exxon Mobil Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 01, 2025

(Q2-2025)

% Change Since: -1.79%|

Next Earnings Date:Oct 24, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call highlights significant achievements in production and strategic project start-ups, particularly in the Upstream segment and Low Carbon Solutions. However, challenges such as an unexpected arbitration ruling and market pressures in the chemical sector present areas of concern.

Q2-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Record Production in Upstream

ExxonMobil achieved the highest second quarter production since the merger of Exxon and Mobil over 25 years ago. More than half of the oil and natural gas production comes from high-return, advantaged assets.

Guyana Development Success

Guyana marked the 10-year anniversary of the first oil discovery with nearly 11 billion barrels of resource, becoming the industry's biggest oil discovery in the past 15 years. The Yellowtail project is anticipated to achieve first oil four months ahead of schedule and under budget.

Permian Basin Record Production

ExxonMobil produced approximately 1.6 million oil equivalent barrels per day in the Permian Basin, a record for the company. The aim is to grow production to 2.3 million barrels by 2030.

Successful Project Start-ups

Significant operations ramp-up in the China Chemical Complex and Singapore Resid Upgrade project. The new Proxxima systems blending facility in Texas expanded operations, contributing to project start-ups expected to drive more than $3 billion of earnings in 2026.

Low Carbon Solutions Progress

The first third-party carbon capture and storage project is now operational, with a total third-party CO2 offtake nearing 10 million metric tons per year. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency issued a draft Class VI permit for the Rose CO2 storage facility in Texas.

Negative Updates

Disappointment in Arbitration Decision

An unexpected arbitration ruling affected ExxonMobil's contracts in Guyana. The company respects the ruling but was surprised by the decision, emphasizing the importance of contract sanctity.

Challenges in Baytown Hydrogen Plant

Mixed progress on the world's largest low carbon hydrogen project at Baytown, with concerns over the development of a broader market due to changes in the 45V tax credit timeline.

Chemical Market Challenges

The chemical market is facing challenging margins due to an oversupply chasing demand, which is expected to persist longer than desired.

Company Guidance

During ExxonMobil's Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, the company provided guidance on various metrics and strategic plans, highlighting significant achievements in production and technological advancements. In the Upstream segment, ExxonMobil reported its highest second-quarter production since the merger of Exxon and Mobil, with more than half of its oil and natural gas production coming from high-return, advantaged assets. The company anticipates increasing this to over 60% by the end of the decade. In Guyana, ExxonMobil is currently producing approximately 650,000 gross barrels per day from three major developments, with expectations to reach 1.7 million oil-equivalent barrels per day by 2030 from eight developments. In the Permian Basin, production reached a record 1.6 million oil-equivalent barrels per day, with plans to grow this to 2.3 million by 2030. Technological innovations, such as lightweight proppant, have improved recoveries by up to 20%, and further deployments are planned. In the Product Solutions segment, several projects are ramping up, including the China Chemical Complex and the Singapore Resid Upgrade project, expected to drive more than $3 billion of earnings in 2026. Lastly, in the Low Carbon Solutions business, ExxonMobil's first third-party carbon capture and storage project is operational, storing up to 2 million metric tons of CO2 per year, with plans to expand third-party CO2 offtake to nearly 10 million metric tons annually. The company reiterated its strategic focus on leveraging its competitive advantages and technological innovations to drive growth and deliver shareholder value.

Exxon Mobil Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Exxon Mobil demonstrates strong financial performance with robust profit margins and solid profitability. Despite modest revenue growth and recent volatility in free cash flow, the company maintains a healthy financial position supported by efficient operations and conservative leverage.

Income Statement

Positive

Exxon Mobil shows a strong financial performance with robust profit margins. The TTM Gross Profit Margin stands at 24.6%, indicating efficient cost management. The Net Profit Margin at 9.7% reflects solid profitability. Revenue growth is modest at 0.8%, but consistent EBIT and EBITDA margins of 8.7% and 21.5% respectively highlight stable operational efficiency. Despite slight revenue fluctuations, the company maintains healthy margins.

Balance Sheet

Very Positive

The balance sheet is solid with a Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 0.24, showcasing conservative leverage. A strong Return on Equity of 12.3% indicates effective use of equity to generate profits. The Equity Ratio of 59.7% suggests a stable capital structure with significant equity backing. Overall, the company maintains a well-balanced financial position with manageable debt levels.

Cash Flow

Positive

Exxon Mobil's cash flow is robust, with an Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio of 1.61, indicating strong cash generation relative to net earnings. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio of 0.85 shows a healthy conversion of earnings into cash. The Free Cash Flow Growth Rate, however, is -8.3%, reflecting a recent decline, albeit from strong previous levels. Overall, cash flows remain strong with slight recent volatility.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	339.89B	339.25B	334.70B	398.68B	276.69B	178.57B
Gross Profit	76.32B	76.74B	84.14B	103.07B	64.89B	8.13B
EBITDA	73.42B	73.31B	74.27B	102.59B	52.79B	18.28B
Net Income	33.17B	33.68B	36.01B	55.74B	23.04B	-22.44B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	451.91B	453.48B	376.32B	369.07B	338.92B	332.75B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	17.04B	23.03B	31.54B	29.64B	6.80B	4.36B
Total Debt	37.55B	41.71B	41.57B	41.19B	47.70B	67.64B
Total Liabilities	182.10B	182.87B	163.78B	166.59B	163.24B	168.62B
Stockholders Equity	262.72B	263.70B	204.80B	195.05B	168.58B	157.15B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	28.18B	30.72B	33.45B	58.39B	36.05B	-2.61B
Operating Cash Flow	53.31B	55.02B	55.37B	76.80B	48.13B	14.67B
Investing Cash Flow	-19.49B	-19.94B	-20.04B	-14.74B	-10.23B	-18.46B
Financing Cash Flow	-48.40B	-42.79B	-33.53B	-39.11B	-35.42B	5.29B

Exxon Mobil Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price109.64

Price Trends

50DMA

109.16

Negative

100DMA

108.65

Negative

200DMA

109.72

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.06

Positive

RSI

40.43

Neutral

STOCH

39.34

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For XOM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 109.64 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 111.47, above the 50-day MA of 109.16, and below the 200-day MA of 109.72, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.43 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 39.34 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for XOM.

Exxon Mobil Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (67)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PBR	81 Outperform	$78.28B	9.65	11.25%	14.02%	-10.84%	-61.73%
SHEL	80 Outperform	$210.36B	14.09	7.40%	3.90%	―	―
CVX	76 Outperform	$309.98B	19.54	8.97%	4.41%	-4.98%	-23.13%
TTE	76 Outperform	$131.90B	10.40	10.96%	5.97%	-10.73%	-36.76%
XOM	74 Outperform	$472.51B	15.53	11.68%	3.58%	-3.63%	-15.40%
BP	71 Outperform	$81.96B	186.20	-1.84%	5.98%	-7.91%	-113.62%
Sector *	67 Neutral	$15.01B	9.77	7.81%	5.64%	4.51%	-61.80%

* Energy Sector Average

Performance Comparison

XOM

Exxon Mobil

107.37

-3.53

-3.18%

32.49

1.41

4.54%

CVX

Chevron

151.04

12.66

9.15%

PBR

Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras

12.76

1.18

10.19%

SHEL

Shell

71.85

4.69

6.98%

TTE

TotalEnergies

59.49

-3.24

-5.16%

Exxon Mobil Corporate Events

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures

Exxon Mobil Reports Strong Q2 2025 Earnings

Positive

Aug 1, 2025

Exxon Mobil announced its second-quarter 2025 results, reporting earnings of $7.1 billion and cash flow from operations of $11.5 billion. The company returned $9.2 billion to shareholders and repurchased approximately 40% of shares issued to acquire Pioneer Natural Resources. Exxon Mobil achieved its highest second-quarter upstream production since the Exxon and Mobil merger, and started operations on key projects expected to enhance earnings by over $3 billion in 2026. Despite a decline in year-to-date earnings compared to 2024, the company generated strong cash flow and maintained industry-leading shareholder distributions. Exxon Mobil’s structural cost savings since 2019 exceed those of other international oil companies, and it plans to continue its strategic growth and cost-saving initiatives.

The most recent analyst rating on (XOM) stock is a Buy with a $127.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Exxon Mobil stock, see the XOM Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures

Exxon Mobil’s 2Q 2025 Earnings Considerations Overview

Neutral

Jul 7, 2025

Exxon Mobil‘s 2Q 2025 earnings considerations highlight various factors expected to impact their financial results compared to 1Q 2025. The company anticipates changes due to market dynamics, planned activities, and seasonal demand patterns, with specific attention to fluctuations in liquid and gas prices, industry margins, and scheduled maintenance. These insights provide a perspective on potential impacts on Exxon Mobil’s operations and market positioning, although they do not encompass all possible changes or estimate the exact earnings for the quarter.

The most recent analyst rating on (XOM) stock is a Buy with a $139.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Exxon Mobil stock, see the XOM Stock Forecast page.

Shareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy

Exxon Mobil Shareholders Back Leadership at Annual Meeting

Positive

May 30, 2025

On May 28, 2025, Exxon Mobil held its Annual Meeting of Shareholders where key proposals were voted on. The election of directors saw all twelve nominees elected with strong support, and the ratification of independent auditors and approval of executive compensation both received significant backing. These outcomes reflect shareholder confidence in the company’s leadership and strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (XOM) stock is a Buy with a $139.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Exxon Mobil stock, see the XOM Stock Forecast page.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 02, 2025