Exxon Mobil (XOM) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $549.07B
• Dividend Yield: 3.35%
• Average Volume (3M): 15.96M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 18.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.31
• Revenue Growth: -4.17%
• EPS Growth: -14.15%
• Country: US
• Employees: 61,000
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Integrated
• EPS (TTM): 1.88
• Shares Outstanding: 4,217,165,500
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 17,183,378
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 15,957,628
• PEG Ratio: -1.16
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.75
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.36
• P/FCF Ratio: 15.05
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.99
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.67
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.48
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 7.88
• 1Y Price Target: $132.17
• Price Target Upside: 1.51% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 19
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 75 Outperform
• Price Target: $136.00 ▲(4.45% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by solid fundamentals (strong balance sheet and profitability) and a constructive technical setup (price above major moving averages with positive MACD). The earnings call adds support via record production, cost reductions, and quantified earnings contribution targets, while the rating is tempered by weakening recent revenue and free-cash-flow trends and only moderate valuation (P/E ~18.2) despite a ~3.3% dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Strong balance sheet and low leverage

A debt-to-equity of 0.26 and a robust capital structure provide durable financial flexibility. Conservative leverage supports continued investments, strategic M&A, and resilient shareholder distributions through commodity cycles, reducing refinancing and solvency risk over the medium term.

Record production and project delivery

Sustained production scale-ups in Guyana and the Permian, plus ahead-of-schedule Yellowtail startup, materially increase high-margin upstream volumes. Higher throughput spreads fixed costs, improves long-term cash generation per barrel, and underpins multi-year earnings visibility independent of short-term price swings.

Structural cost reductions and tech advantages

Large, sustained structural cost savings and proprietary tech (proppant, Proxima products, supercomputer investments) lower unit costs and raise returns on new projects. These efficiency gains are sticky and enhance competitive position, enabling reinvestment and buffering margins in weaker commodity environments.

Negative Factors

Declining free cash flow growth

An 18% TTM drop in free cash flow growth and only moderate cash conversion indicate pressure on the company’s ability to fund capex, dividends, and buybacks internally. If persistent, this reduces strategic flexibility and may require slower capital programs or external financing over the next several quarters.

Top-line weakness and margin compression

Negative recent revenue growth and a fall in net margin signal challenges sustaining topline and profitability. Over a 2–6 month horizon, continued volume or demand weakness could erode operating leverage, limit earnings recovery from cost cuts, and pressure long-term return on invested capital.

Slow development of low-carbon solutions market

A slower-than-expected uptake of low-carbon solutions forces pacing of capital spend and delays revenue diversification. This constrains the company’s transition pathway, risks underutilized R&D and asset allocations, and could heighten regulatory and reputational exposure as peers advance decarbonization strategies.

Exxon Mobil Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Exxon Mobil Corporation explores for and produces crude oil and natural gas in the United States and internationally. It operates through Upstream, Downstream, and Chemical segments. The company is also involved in the manufacture, trade, transport, and sale of crude oil, natural gas, petroleum products, petrochemicals, and other specialty products; manufactures and sells petrochemicals, including olefins, polyolefins, aromatics, and various other petrochemicals; and captures and stores carbon, hydrogen, and biofuels. As of December 31, 2021, it had approximately 20,528 net operated wells with proved reserves. The company was founded in 1870 and is headquartered in Irving, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Exxon Mobil generates revenue primarily through the sale of crude oil, natural gas, refined petroleum products, and petrochemicals. The Upstream segment contributes significantly to its earnings through the extraction and sale of oil and gas, which are influenced by global commodity prices. The Downstream segment earns revenue by refining crude oil into various products such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, and by selling these products through a vast network of retail stations and wholesale markets. Additionally, the Chemical segment provides a stable revenue stream through the manufacture of chemical products that are essential for various industries. Exxon Mobil also benefits from long-term contracts and partnerships with other energy companies and governments, optimizing its production capabilities and market access. Factors such as fluctuations in oil prices, regulatory changes, and geopolitical events can also impact its earnings.

Exxon Mobil Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong overall financial health supported by a robust balance sheet (low debt-to-equity of 0.26) and solid gross margin (24.89%). The score is held back by slight net margin compression (to 9.03%), negative recent revenue growth (-1.35% TTM), and declining free cash flow growth (-18.36% TTM) with only moderate cash conversion (operating cash flow to net income of 0.70).

Income Statement

Exxon Mobil's income statement shows a strong gross profit margin of 24.89% for TTM, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin has slightly decreased to 9.03% from 9.93% in the previous year, reflecting some pressure on profitability. Revenue growth has been negative recently, with a decline of 1.35% in TTM, suggesting challenges in maintaining top-line growth.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is robust with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.26, indicating conservative leverage. Return on equity is healthy at 11.42% for TTM, though it has decreased from 12.77% in the previous year, suggesting a slight dip in efficiency. The equity ratio remains strong, reflecting a solid capital structure.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a decline in free cash flow growth by 18.36% in TTM, indicating potential cash generation challenges. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.70, showing a moderate conversion of income to cash. Despite these challenges, the free cash flow to net income ratio remains stable at 0.54, suggesting decent cash profitability.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	324.92B	339.25B	334.70B	398.68B	276.69B	178.57B
Gross Profit	72.36B	76.74B	84.14B	103.07B	64.89B	8.13B
EBITDA	68.77B	73.31B	74.27B	102.59B	52.79B	18.28B
Net Income	29.95B	33.68B	36.01B	55.74B	23.04B	-22.44B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	454.34B	453.48B	376.32B	369.07B	338.92B	332.75B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	13.81B	23.03B	31.54B	29.64B	6.80B	4.36B
Total Debt	42.04B	41.71B	41.57B	41.19B	47.70B	67.64B
Total Liabilities	186.12B	182.87B	163.78B	166.59B	163.24B	168.62B
Stockholders Equity	260.56B	263.70B	204.80B	195.05B	168.58B	157.15B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	23.77B	30.72B	33.45B	58.39B	36.05B	-2.61B
Operating Cash Flow	51.52B	55.02B	55.37B	76.80B	48.13B	14.67B
Investing Cash Flow	-23.05B	-19.94B	-20.04B	-14.74B	-10.23B	-18.46B
Financing Cash Flow	-41.49B	-42.79B	-33.53B	-39.11B	-35.42B	5.29B

Exxon Mobil Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 130.20
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For XOM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 130.2 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 121.67, above the 50-day MA of 118.73, and above the 200-day MA of 110.68, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.70 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.09 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.55 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for XOM.

Exxon Mobil Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SHEL	78 Outperform	$208.16B	15.10	8.06%	3.92%	-6.96%	0.03%
XOM	75 Outperform	$549.07B	18.91	11.32%	3.35%	-4.17%	-14.15%
CVX	71 Outperform	$336.74B	23.61	7.38%	4.54%	-3.44%	-22.05%
BP	68 Neutral	$91.56B	59.06	2.52%	5.62%	-4.11%	-37.59%
OXY	66 Neutral	$43.66B	32.26	5.82%	2.39%	-2.48%	-65.26%
VLO	66 Neutral	$56.89B	38.82	6.07%	2.74%	-8.48%	-56.92%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%

Exxon Mobil Corporate Events

Exxon Mobil Issues Q4 2025 Performance Outlook Update

Exxon Mobil outlined management’s current view of the main market, seasonal and planned factors expected to affect its fourth-quarter 2025 results compared with the third quarter of 2025, when the company reported U.S. GAAP earnings of $7.5 billion and non-GAAP earnings of $8.1 billion. The company highlighted potential headwinds from lower liquids prices in the Upstream segment and impairments across Upstream, Energy Products, and Chemical Products, partly offset by improved industry margins in Energy Products, divestment gains in Energy Products, tax-related items across several segments, and year-end inventory and maintenance effects, while stressing that these ranges are directional, exclude operating performance and other variables, and do not constitute an earnings forecast.

The most recent analyst rating on (XOM) stock is a Buy with a $130.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Exxon Mobil stock, see the XOM Stock Forecast page.

Exxon Mobil Announces CFO Retirement and Successor

On December 8, 2025, Exxon Mobil announced that Kathryn A. Mikells, the Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, will retire effective February 1, 2026, to focus on her health recovery. Neil A. Hansen has been elected to succeed her, bringing extensive experience from his previous roles within the company, including his recent position as President of ExxonMobil Global Business Solutions.

The most recent analyst rating on (XOM) stock is a Buy with a $132.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Exxon Mobil stock, see the XOM Stock Forecast page.

ExxonMobil to Unveil Corporate Plan on Dec 9

ExxonMobil announced plans to release details of its Corporate Plan, including capital plans up to 2030, on December 9, 2025. The release will be available on the company’s website, accompanied by a live broadcast and Q&A session with analysts, potentially impacting stakeholders by providing insights into the company’s future strategies.

The most recent analyst rating on (XOM) stock is a Buy with a $144.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Exxon Mobil stock, see the XOM Stock Forecast page.

Exxon Mobil Issues Floating Rate Notes for 2075

On November 7, 2025, Exxon Mobil Corporation entered into an underwriting agreement for the issuance and sale of $111,949,000 in Floating Rate Notes due 2075. This financial move is part of the company’s strategic efforts to manage its long-term debt and strengthen its financial position, potentially impacting its market standing and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (XOM) stock is a Buy with a $144.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Exxon Mobil stock, see the XOM Stock Forecast page.

Exxon Mobil Appoints Greg C. Garland as Director

On October 28, 2025, Exxon Mobil‘s Board of Directors elected Greg C. Garland as a new non-employee director, effective November 3, 2025. Mr. Garland will join the Audit and Finance Committees and receive an initial grant of 8,000 shares of restricted stock, aligning his compensation with other non-employee directors.

The most recent analyst rating on (XOM) stock is a Buy with a $155.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Exxon Mobil stock, see the XOM Stock Forecast page.

Exxon Mobil Reports Strong Q3 2025 Earnings

Exxon Mobil reported strong third-quarter 2025 earnings of $7.5 billion and cash flow from operations of $14.8 billion, with shareholder distributions totaling $9.4 billion. The company advanced its growth ambitions through acquisitions and technological investments, setting production records in Guyana and the Permian Basin. Exxon Mobil’s year-to-date earnings were $22.3 billion, impacted by weaker crude prices and strategic divestments, but offset by volume growth and cost savings. The company declared a fourth-quarter dividend increase and maintained a strong financial position with industry-leading debt ratios.

The most recent analyst rating on (XOM) stock is a Hold with a $115.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Exxon Mobil stock, see the XOM Stock Forecast page.