Exxon Mobil (XOM) AI Stock Analysis

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Exxon Mobil

(NYSE:XOM)

Rating:79Outperform

Price Target:

$126.00

▲(12.34% Upside)

Exxon Mobil's strong financial performance and strategic growth initiatives, particularly in high-return assets, are the most significant factors driving the score. The company's balanced valuation and neutral technical indicators also contribute positively, while challenges in certain projects and market conditions are noted.

Positive Factors

High-Return Asset Production

Focusing on high-return assets enhances profitability and operational efficiency, ensuring sustainable growth and competitive advantage in the long term.

Permian Basin Expansion

Expanding production in the Permian Basin with advanced technologies positions Exxon Mobil for increased market share and long-term revenue growth.

Low Carbon Solutions

Investing in carbon capture and storage reflects a strategic shift towards sustainable practices, aligning with global energy transition trends and regulatory expectations.

Negative Factors

Arbitration Ruling in Guyana

The unfavorable arbitration ruling could affect Exxon Mobil's operations and financial outcomes in Guyana, posing risks to regional growth and profitability.

Chemical Industry Margin Pressure

Margin pressures in the chemical industry could impact Exxon Mobil's profitability, necessitating strategic adjustments to maintain competitive advantage.

Revenue Decline

A decline in revenue growth may indicate challenges in market demand or pricing, potentially affecting long-term financial performance if not addressed.

Exxon Mobil (XOM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$478.17B

Dividend Yield3.53%

Average Volume (3M)15.21M

Price to Earnings (P/E)15.9

Beta (1Y)0.32

Revenue Growth-3.79%

EPS Growth-15.46%

CountryUS

Employees61,000

SectorEnergy

Sector Strength55

IndustryOil & Gas Integrated

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)1.64

Shares Outstanding4,263,247,000

10 Day Avg. Volume14,322,886

30 Day Avg. Volume15,212,217

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)N/A

P/FCF RatioN/A

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.04

Enterprise Value/Revenue1.51

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.72

Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.04

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$125.63

Price Target Upside12.01% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering19

Exxon Mobil Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionExxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) is one of the world's largest publicly traded oil and gas companies, headquartered in Irving, Texas. The company operates in various segments, including upstream, downstream, and chemical sectors. The upstream segment involves the exploration and production of oil and natural gas, while the downstream segment focuses on refining, marketing, and distributing petroleum products. The chemical segment manufactures and sells petrochemicals, which are essential for various industrial applications. Exxon Mobil is committed to sustainable practices and innovation in energy solutions.

How the Company Makes MoneyExxon Mobil generates revenue primarily through the sale of crude oil, natural gas, and petroleum products. Its upstream operations contribute significantly to its earnings by producing large volumes of oil and gas, which are sold on the global market. The downstream segment adds further revenue through the refining process, converting crude oil into gasoline, diesel, and other products that are then marketed and sold through a vast network of service stations and retail outlets. Additionally, the chemical segment generates income by producing and selling a variety of petrochemicals used in manufacturing and consumer products. Significant partnerships, including joint ventures and collaborations with other energy companies, also enhance Exxon Mobil's operational efficiency and revenue potential. Furthermore, fluctuations in global oil prices, regulatory environments, and geopolitical factors play a critical role in influencing the company's earnings.

Exxon Mobil Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Net Oil-Equivalent Production

Net Oil-Equivalent Production
Measures the total volume of oil and gas produced, providing insight into resource extraction efficiency, reserve management, and the company's capacity to generate revenue from its core operations.

Chart InsightsExxonMobil's net oil-equivalent production has surged, particularly in liquids, reflecting strategic asset optimization and cost efficiencies. The latest earnings call highlights robust financial health, with significant structural cost reductions and asset divestments enhancing earnings potential. Despite market volatility and policy uncertainties, ExxonMobil's focus on advantaged assets and low carbon solutions positions it for sustained growth. The company's strategic initiatives to lower breakeven costs and increase high-value product output underscore its resilience and long-term profitability prospects, making it a compelling investment amid industry challenges.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

Exxon Mobil Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2025

(Q2-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Oct 24, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

ExxonMobil's earnings call highlighted significant achievements in upstream production, particularly in Guyana and the Permian Basin, along with advancements in low carbon solutions and new product developments. However, challenges such as an unexpected arbitration ruling in Guyana, mixed progress in hydrogen projects, and margin pressures in the chemical industry were also discussed.

Q2-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Record Upstream Production

ExxonMobil achieved the highest second quarter production since the merger of Exxon and Mobil over 25 years ago. More than half of the oil and natural gas production comes from high-return, advantaged assets, expected to increase to over 60% by the end of the decade.

Guyana Development Success

Guyana marked the 10-year anniversary of its first oil discovery with nearly 11 billion barrels of resources. Three major developments are producing 650,000 gross barrels per day, with the fourth development, Yellowtail, anticipated to achieve first oil next week, under budget and ahead of schedule.

Permian Basin Production Growth

ExxonMobil produced roughly 1.6 million oil equivalent barrels per day in the Permian Basin, setting a new record. The company plans to grow production to 2.3 million by 2030, supported by new technologies that have improved recovery rates by up to 20%.

New Product Solutions Projects

Operations ramped up at the China Chemical Complex and the Singapore Resid Upgrade project. The company also started renewable diesel production at Strathcona in Canada, contributing to a lower emissions fuel strategy.

Low Carbon Solutions Progress

ExxonMobil's first third-party carbon capture and storage project is operational, storing up to 2 million metric tons of CO2 annually. The company also announced its seventh CCS customer contract, bringing total third-party CO2 offtake to nearly 10 million metric tons per year.

Negative Updates

Arbitration Decision in Guyana

ExxonMobil was surprised by an arbitration ruling regarding a contractual dispute in Guyana. The ruling was not in the company's favor, which may impact contractual rights in the region.

Challenges with Baytown Hydrogen Project

Mixed progress was reported for the Baytown hydrogen plant, with concerns about developing a broader market. The timeline for construction was shortened, adding pressure to meet new deadlines.

Chemical Industry Margin Pressure

Challenging margins in the chemical industry were noted, with excess supply chasing demand leading to lower profitability.

Company Guidance

During ExxonMobil's Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, CEO Darren Woods outlined several key metrics and projections reflecting the company's strategic focus and growth potential. ExxonMobil achieved its highest second-quarter production since the Exxon-Mobil merger, with more than half of its production coming from high-return, advantaged assets, projected to rise to over 60% by decade's end. The Guyana development stands out, with a total production capacity expected to reach 1.7 million oil equivalent barrels per day by 2030 across eight developments. The company also set ambitious targets for the Permian Basin, aiming to grow production from 1.6 million to 2.3 million oil equivalent barrels per day by 2030, leveraging advanced technologies like lightweight proppant to enhance recovery. Additionally, 2025 project start-ups are anticipated to drive over $3 billion in earnings by 2026, contributing to a strategic goal of $20 billion in additional earnings and $30 billion in cash flow by 2030 versus 2024, under constant price and margin conditions. In the Low Carbon Solutions business, ExxonMobil's carbon capture and storage initiatives are set to store up to 2 million metric tons of CO2 per year, with potential expansion as new contracts are secured. These initiatives underscore ExxonMobil's commitment to both traditional and low-carbon energy avenues, balancing immediate operational efficiency with long-term sustainable growth.

Exxon Mobil Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Exxon Mobil demonstrates a strong financial position with robust profit margins and efficient operations. The company maintains a solid balance sheet with conservative leverage and strong cash flow generation, despite a recent decline in free cash flow growth.

Income Statement

Positive

Exxon Mobil shows a strong financial performance with robust profit margins. The TTM Gross Profit Margin stands at 24.6%, indicating efficient cost management. The Net Profit Margin at 9.7% reflects solid profitability. Revenue growth is modest at 0.8%, but consistent EBIT and EBITDA margins of 8.7% and 21.5% respectively highlight stable operational efficiency. Despite slight revenue fluctuations, the company maintains healthy margins.

Balance Sheet

Very Positive

The balance sheet is solid with a Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 0.24, showcasing conservative leverage. A strong Return on Equity of 12.3% indicates effective use of equity to generate profits. The Equity Ratio of 59.7% suggests a stable capital structure with significant equity backing. Overall, the company maintains a well-balanced financial position with manageable debt levels.

Cash Flow

Positive

Exxon Mobil's cash flow is robust, with an Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio of 1.61, indicating strong cash generation relative to net earnings. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio of 0.85 shows a healthy conversion of earnings into cash. The Free Cash Flow Growth Rate, however, is -8.3%, reflecting a recent decline, albeit from strong previous levels. Overall, cash flows remain strong with slight recent volatility.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	329.38B	339.25B	334.70B	398.68B	276.69B	178.57B
Gross Profit	74.07B	76.74B	84.14B	103.07B	64.89B	8.13B
EBITDA	70.64B	73.31B	74.27B	102.59B	52.79B	18.28B
Net Income	31.02B	33.68B	36.01B	55.74B	23.04B	-22.44B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	447.60B	453.48B	376.32B	369.07B	338.92B	332.75B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	14.35B	23.03B	31.54B	29.64B	6.80B	4.36B
Total Debt	38.99B	41.71B	41.57B	41.19B	47.70B	67.64B
Total Liabilities	177.63B	182.87B	163.78B	166.59B	163.24B	168.62B
Stockholders Equity	262.59B	263.70B	204.80B	195.05B	168.58B	157.15B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	29.12B	30.72B	33.45B	58.39B	36.05B	-2.61B
Operating Cash Flow	54.30B	55.02B	55.37B	76.80B	48.13B	14.67B
Investing Cash Flow	-20.81B	-19.94B	-20.04B	-14.74B	-10.23B	-18.46B
Financing Cash Flow	-44.51B	-42.79B	-33.53B	-39.11B	-35.42B	5.29B

Exxon Mobil Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price112.16

Price Trends

50DMA

109.89

Positive

100DMA

107.87

Positive

200DMA

107.83

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

0.86

Positive

RSI

56.21

Neutral

STOCH

56.85

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For XOM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 112.16 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 110.94, above the 50-day MA of 109.89, and above the 200-day MA of 107.83, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.86 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 56.21 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 56.85 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for XOM.

Exxon Mobil Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (65)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
XOM	79 Outperform	$478.17B	15.90	11.68%	3.53%	-3.79%	-15.46%
CVX	76 Outperform	$321.67B	20.28	8.97%	4.30%	-5.02%	-23.13%
TTE	74 Outperform	$136.41B	10.74	10.96%	5.78%	-10.73%	-36.76%
SHEL	74 Outperform	$207.51B	15.85	7.47%	3.98%	-5.75%	-20.18%
PBR	73 Outperform	$77.88B	5.95	19.48%	13.20%	-13.68%	-13.96%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.18B	7.59	4.09%	5.21%	3.87%	-62.32%
BP	65 Neutral	$88.08B	143.60	0.95%	5.68%	-7.40%	-90.89%

* Energy Sector Average

Performance Comparison

XOM

Exxon Mobil

112.35

3.57

3.28%

33.89

3.47

11.41%

CVX

Chevron

157.11

21.19

15.59%

PBR

Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras

12.85

-0.09

-0.70%

SHEL

Shell

71.67

6.40

9.81%

TTE

TotalEnergies

61.14

-3.96

-6.08%

Exxon Mobil Corporate Events

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures

Exxon Mobil Reports Strong Q2 2025 Earnings

Positive

Aug 1, 2025

Exxon Mobil announced its second-quarter 2025 results, reporting earnings of $7.1 billion and cash flow from operations of $11.5 billion. The company returned $9.2 billion to shareholders and repurchased approximately 40% of shares issued to acquire Pioneer Natural Resources. Exxon Mobil achieved its highest second-quarter upstream production since the Exxon and Mobil merger, and started operations on key projects expected to enhance earnings by over $3 billion in 2026. Despite a decline in year-to-date earnings compared to 2024, the company generated strong cash flow and maintained industry-leading shareholder distributions. Exxon Mobil’s structural cost savings since 2019 exceed those of other international oil companies, and it plans to continue its strategic growth and cost-saving initiatives.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures

Exxon Mobil’s 2Q 2025 Earnings Considerations Overview

Neutral

Jul 7, 2025

Exxon Mobil‘s 2Q 2025 earnings considerations highlight various factors expected to impact their financial results compared to 1Q 2025. The company anticipates changes due to market dynamics, planned activities, and seasonal demand patterns, with specific attention to fluctuations in liquid and gas prices, industry margins, and scheduled maintenance. These insights provide a perspective on potential impacts on Exxon Mobil’s operations and market positioning, although they do not encompass all possible changes or estimate the exact earnings for the quarter.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Sep 09, 2025