TotalEnergies (TTE) AI Stock Analysis

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TotalEnergies

(NYSE:TTE)

78Outperform

TotalEnergies exhibits a strong financial foundation with robust profitability and cash flow, providing resilience amidst market challenges. Technical indicators point to a cautious outlook, while valuation metrics suggest the stock may be undervalued. The recent earnings call reaffirmed the company's strategic focus on growth and shareholder returns despite geopolitical and downstream challenges. This balanced performance results in a solid overall score.

Positive Factors

Financial Strategy

TTE sees current market conditions as supportive of its current financial framework.

Growth Prospects

A sound strategy and strong growth prospects, along with a 6% dividend yield with limited risk, position the company favorably.

Negative Factors

Buyback Reductions

TTE will need to cut its buyback if commodity conditions hold.

Cash Flow Challenges

TTE's free cash flow is expected to shrink from $8.5B to $7.5B from 2025 to 2026.

Leverage Increase

TTE's leverage is expected to climb, potentially reaching 16% by the end of 2025.

TotalEnergies (TTE) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$115.97B

Dividend Yield4.8%

Average Volume (3M)2.02M

Price to Earnings (P/E)8.2

Beta (1Y)0.32

Revenue Growth-9.86%

EPS Growth-32.59%

CountryUS

Employees95,393

SectorEnergy

Sector Strength47

IndustryOil & Gas Integrated

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)1.90

Shares Outstanding2,270,057,100

10 Day Avg. Volume2,529,778

30 Day Avg. Volume2,023,904

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)0.68

Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)6.40

P/FCF Ratio15.10

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.30

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.00

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$63.75

Price Target Upside10.43% Upside

Rating ConsensusHold

Number of Analyst Covering5

TotalEnergies Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTotalEnergies SE is a global multi-energy company headquartered in France, focused on producing and supplying energy across various sectors. The company operates in multiple segments, including oil and gas exploration and production, refining, chemicals, marketing, and low-carbon electricity. TotalEnergies is committed to transitioning towards sustainable energy solutions, investing in renewable energies like solar and wind, while maintaining a significant presence in traditional energy markets.

How the Company Makes MoneyTotalEnergies generates revenue through several key streams, primarily from the exploration and production of oil and natural gas, which are then refined and marketed globally. The company also earns from its chemical production operations, providing a range of petrochemical products. Additionally, TotalEnergies is expanding its footprint in renewable energy, investing in solar, wind, and biofuels, which are expected to contribute increasingly to its revenue. Strategic partnerships and joint ventures in various regions enhance its market presence and operational efficiency. The company's integrated approach across the energy value chain allows it to capitalize on synergies between its traditional and renewable energy businesses.

TotalEnergies Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Petroleum Sales by Region

Petroleum Sales by Region
Shows the distribution of petroleum sales across different regions, highlighting where TotalEnergies is capitalizing on market demand and where geopolitical or economic factors might impact performance.

Chart InsightsTotalEnergies' petroleum sales in Europe and the Americas show resilience, with a notable recovery in the Americas, driven by Brazil's strong cash flow contribution. However, Africa's sales are declining, reflecting regional challenges. The earnings call highlights robust reserve replacement and cash flow, but also flags downstream and LNG pressures. The company's strategic focus on high-return projects and shareholder returns, despite these challenges, suggests a balanced approach to growth and risk management.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

TotalEnergies Financial Statement Overview

Summary

TotalEnergies maintains a robust financial position with strong profitability and cash flow metrics, despite a recent revenue decline. The balance sheet reflects solid equity and manageable debt levels, supporting long-term stability. While growth challenges exist, the company's operational efficiency and cash generation provide a solid foundation for future opportunities.

Income Statement

Very Positive

TotalEnergies exhibits strong profitability with a TTM gross profit margin of approximately 20.6% and a net profit margin of 7.2%. While total revenue has declined from 2024 to TTM, the company maintains solid EBIT and EBITDA margins of 12.6% and 20.7% respectively, reflecting efficient operations. However, a decline in revenue from 2022 indicates potential market challenges.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The company's balance sheet shows a healthy equity position with an equity ratio of 40.5% in TTM, suggesting financial stability. Although the debt-to-equity ratio has increased slightly to 0.50, it remains manageable. The ROE of 11.8% indicates effective equity utilization, though there's room for improvement in leveraging equity for higher returns.

Cash Flow

Very Positive

TotalEnergies' cash flow position is strong, with an operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.25 in TTM, highlighting robust cash generation. The free cash flow has remained stable, though the free cash flow growth rate has slightly decreased compared to 2024. This solid cash flow profile supports the company's investment and financing needs effectively.

Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
195.61B	218.94B	263.31B	184.63B	119.70B
	Gross Profit
25.06B	31.25B	81.64B	52.46B	19.95B
	EBIT
25.06B	31.98B	45.67B	27.86B	-4.87B
	EBITDA
41.11B	50.78B	59.13B	37.84B	8.85B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
15.76B	21.38B	20.53B	16.03B	-7.34B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
32.76B	31.62B	41.77B	33.66B	35.90B
	Total Assets
285.49B	283.65B	303.86B	293.46B	266.13B
	Total Debt
53.56B	47.87B	60.77B	64.55B	77.30B
	Net Debt
27.71B	22.41B	27.74B	43.20B	46.03B
	Total Liabilities
165.23B	164.20B	189.29B	178.46B	160.05B
	Stockholders Equity
117.86B	116.75B	111.72B	111.74B	103.70B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
15.95B	22.96B	31.68B	18.07B	4.04B
	Operating Cash Flow
30.85B	40.68B	47.37B	30.41B	14.80B
	Investing Cash Flow
-17.33B	-16.45B	-15.12B	-13.66B	-13.08B
	Financing Cash Flow
-14.43B	-29.73B	-19.27B	-26.15B	1.40B

TotalEnergies Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price57.73

Price Trends

50DMA

60.07

Negative

100DMA

58.40

Negative

200DMA

61.01

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.56

Negative

RSI

45.39

Neutral

STOCH

26.24

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TTE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 57.73 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 57.51, below the 50-day MA of 60.07, and below the 200-day MA of 61.01, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.56 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 45.39 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.24 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TTE.

TotalEnergies Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (56)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TTE	78 Outperform	$115.97B	8.20	11.75%	4.80%	-9.86%	-32.59%
CVX	75 Outperform	$236.91B	13.95	11.28%	4.84%	-1.90%	-14.56%
SHEL	74 Outperform	$180.57B	12.15	8.82%	4.29%	-5.74%	-11.09%
XOM	73 Outperform	$447.19B	13.19	14.38%	3.67%	1.86%	-11.52%
EQNR	73 Outperform	$62.92B	7.45	19.39%	5.14%	-4.07%	-20.34%
BP	62 Neutral	$68.32B	186.20	-1.87%	6.66%	-7.70%	-113.83%
Sector *	56 Neutral	$6.99B	3.72	-4.39%	5.96%	-0.24%	-48.44%

* Energy Sector Average

Performance Comparison

TTE

TotalEnergies

57.73

-11.17

-16.21%

28.12

-8.82

-23.88%

CVX

Chevron

138.50

-17.07

-10.97%

XOM

Exxon Mobil

106.21

-6.73

-5.96%

SHEL

Shell

66.64

-3.28

-4.69%

EQNR

Equinor ASA

23.25

-2.28

-8.93%

TotalEnergies Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: -1.23%|

Next Earnings Date:Jul 24, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

TotalEnergies showcased strong production growth and maintained shareholder returns despite a challenging downstream environment and geopolitical uncertainties affecting market stability.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Production Growth

TotalEnergies achieved robust year-on-year production growth of nearly 4% in Oil & Gas and 18% in Electricity, resulting in a unique production growth of close to 5%.

Shareholder Returns Maintained

The Board confirmed a 7.6% increase in the first interim dividend to €0.85 per share and announced share buybacks of up to €2 billion for the second quarter.

Low Operating Costs

TotalEnergies maintained low operating costs, with OpEx per barrel at $4.9 during the first quarter, showcasing strong cost control despite inflationary pressures.

Negative Updates

Challenging Downstream Environment

Downstream posted adjusted net operating income of $0.5 billion, impacted by weak refining margins, declining petrochemical margins, and operational issues at specific refineries.

Volatile Oil and Gas Markets

The company faces uncertainties due to geopolitical tensions like the Ukrainian-Russian conflict and potential impacts from U.S. tariff policies, affecting oil demand and market stability.

Gas Trading Challenges

Gas trading results were negatively affected by the unexpected downturn of European markets, following new uncertainties in the geopolitical landscape.

Company Guidance

In the first-quarter 2025 results conference call, TotalEnergies highlighted robust year-on-year production growth of nearly 4% in Oil & Gas and 18% in Electricity, leading to an overall production increase of close to 5%. The company maintained its cost discipline, with OpEx per barrel remaining below $5 despite inflationary pressures. TotalEnergies reported an adjusted net income of $4.2 billion and funds from operations (FFO) of $7 billion, resulting in a return on capital employed of 13.2% over the past 12 months. The company also executed $2 billion in share buybacks for the first quarter and confirmed a 7.6% increase in the first interim dividend to €0.85 per share. TotalEnergies reiterated its full-year 2025 production growth guidance of more than 3% compared to 2024 and maintained its commitment to attractive shareholder returns, with a focus on sustaining a payout of more than 40% of cash flow from operations through cycles. Despite the geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties, the company plans to continue its disciplined capital investment strategy, with net investments totaling $4.9 billion in the first quarter and a full-year guidance of $17 billion to $17.5 billion.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.