BP plc. (BP)
NYSE:BP
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BP (BP) AI Stock Analysis

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BP

BP

(NYSE:BP)

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Neutral 68 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$39.00
▲(6.76% Upside)
BP's overall stock score reflects a company with strong operational performance and positive earnings call sentiment, offset by high leverage and valuation concerns. The financial performance indicates recovery with revenue growth, but profitability and leverage remain challenges. Technical analysis shows bullish momentum, while the high P/E ratio suggests potential overvaluation. The positive earnings call sentiment underscores confidence in strategic direction, contributing to the overall score.
Positive Factors
Operational Excellence
High production reliability and increased output demonstrate BP's operational efficiency, enhancing its competitive position in the energy market.
Cash Flow Growth
Strong cash flow growth supports BP's financial health, enabling reinvestment in strategic projects and shareholder returns.
Technological Advancements
Adopting advanced technologies enhances BP's exploration efficiency, potentially reducing costs and increasing resource discovery success.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
High leverage can limit BP's financial flexibility and increase risk, especially if market conditions deteriorate.
Profitability Challenges
Low profitability margins suggest BP needs to improve cost management and pricing strategies to enhance long-term financial performance.
Exploration Budget Concerns
Uncertainty in exploration budget sustainability could impact BP's ability to maintain exploration success and manage costs effectively.

BP (BP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

BP Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionBP p.l.c. provides carbon products and services. The company operates through Gas & Low Carbon Energy, Oil Production & Operations, and Customers & Products segments. It engages in the production of natural gas, and integrated gas and power; trading of gas; operation of onshore and offshore wind power, as well as hydrogen and carbon capture and storage facilities; trading and marketing of renewable and non-renewable power; and production of crude oil. In addition, the company involved in convenience and retail fuel, EV charging, Castrol lubricant, aviation, B2B, and midstream businesses; refining and oil trading; and bioenergy business. The company was founded in 1908 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
How the Company Makes MoneyBP generates revenue through multiple key streams. The upstream sector, which involves exploration and production, contributes significantly to its earnings by selling crude oil and natural gas. The downstream sector includes refining operations and the sale of refined products such as gasoline and diesel, which also provide substantial revenue. Additionally, BP engages in trading activities, capitalizing on fluctuations in energy prices. The company has established partnerships and joint ventures with other oil and gas firms, enhancing its operational capabilities and market reach. Furthermore, BP's investments in renewable energy and low-carbon technologies are expected to create new revenue opportunities as global energy markets evolve.

BP Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

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Any
Underlying RC EBIT by Segment
Underlying RC EBIT by Segment
Evaluates earnings before interest and taxes from each business segment, highlighting which areas drive profitability and how operational efficiency impacts overall financial health.
Chart InsightsBP's Gas & Low Carbon Energy and Oil Production & Operations segments show a downward trend in EBIT, reflecting challenges in the energy transition and market conditions. However, the earnings call highlights strong upstream performance with new projects and exploration successes, indicating potential future growth. The Customers & Products segment saw a significant year-over-year earnings increase, despite impairments. BP's strategic divestments and cost reductions are bolstering financial stability, while shareholder returns are enhanced through dividend increases and share buybacks, signaling confidence in long-term value creation.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

BP Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 04, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
BP reported a strong financial and operational performance with significant achievements in exploration and production. However, there are challenges in the trading segment, uncertainties in the LNG arbitration case, and concerns about exploration budget sustainability. Overall, the highlights outweigh the lowlights, indicating a positive sentiment.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance
BP reported underlying pretax earnings of $5.3 billion and underlying net income of $2.2 billion for Q3 2025. Operating cash flow reached $7.8 billion, supporting their growth target for adjusted free cash flow growth of 20% CAGR from 2025 to 2027.
Operational Excellence
Upstream production increased by around 3% quarter-on-quarter, with upstream plant reliability at 97%, leading to upgraded full-year production guidance. Refining availability was also close to 97%, marking the best quarter in 20 years for the current portfolio.
Successful Exploration and Discoveries
BP started 6 new oil and gas projects in 2025, with 12 exploration discoveries so far this year, including the significant Bumerangue discovery in Brazil.
Downstream and Customer Growth
Underlying earnings in the first 9 months of 2025 were around 40% higher than the same period in 2024. The customer segment delivered its highest 3Q on record, with refining capturing a better margin environment.
Cost and Portfolio Management
BP is making good progress on derisking its $20 billion divestment proceeds target and remains disciplined with capital investment, keeping organic CapEx on track to be below $14 billion.
Technological Advancements in Exploration
BP is leveraging seismic technology, NVIDIA chips, and AI to significantly improve exploration success rates, with 12 out of 14 successful discoveries this year.
Negative Updates
Challenges in Trading Segment
The trading segment experienced a weaker quarter compared to Q2 2025, although it remains in line with the previous year's performance over the 9-month period.
Venture Global LNG Arbitration
While BP won the LNG arbitration case against Venture Global, the amount of damages and timing of receipt remain uncertain, as BP did not disclose specific figures.
Exploration Budget Concerns
Despite exploration success, there are concerns about the sustainability of such a high success rate and potential budget increases needed for Bumerangue appraisal and development.
Uncertain Impact of Portfolio Simplification
While BP is making progress on its $20 billion divestment target, the impact on future cash flows and potential shifts in asset composition remain uncertain.
Company Guidance
During BP's Third Quarter 2025 Results Call, hosted in Abu Dhabi, the company highlighted multiple performance metrics and strategic achievements. BP reported underlying pretax earnings of $5.3 billion and underlying net income of $2.2 billion, with operating cash flow reaching $7.8 billion for the quarter. The company is on track to achieve a 20% compound annual growth rate in adjusted free cash flow from 2025 to 2027. BP's upstream production increased by around 3% quarter-on-quarter, supported by a 97% upstream plant reliability, marking the best quarter in 20 years for the current portfolio. The company has started six new oil and gas projects in 2025, with 12 exploration discoveries to date, including the Bumerangue in Brazil. BP is also progressing on its $20 billion divestment target, having completed and announced proceeds of around $5 billion. Capital investment remains disciplined, with organic capital expenditure on track to be below $14 billion. The call emphasized BP's focus on performance, cost reduction, cash flow growth, and balance sheet strengthening, all aimed at enhancing shareholder value and returns.

BP Financial Statement Overview

Summary
BP's financial statements reflect a company in recovery mode with significant revenue growth but facing challenges in profitability and leverage. The income statement shows strong revenue recovery but low net margins. The balance sheet indicates high leverage, posing potential risks. Cash flow is improving, with positive growth in free cash flow, suggesting better cash management. Overall, BP is on a positive trajectory but needs to address profitability and leverage concerns to strengthen its financial position.
Income Statement
65
Positive
BP's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM data indicates a strong revenue growth rate of 46.8%, reflecting a recovery from previous declines. However, the net profit margin remains low at 0.33%, indicating challenges in converting revenue into profit. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are moderate, suggesting operational efficiency but room for improvement in profitability.
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.27, which indicates significant leverage and potential risk if market conditions worsen. Return on equity is low at 1.07%, suggesting limited returns for shareholders. The equity ratio is stable, reflecting a balanced asset structure, but the high debt levels are a concern.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Cash flow analysis shows positive trends with a 24.17% growth in free cash flow, indicating improved cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy, suggesting strong cash earnings. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is moderate, pointing to potential areas for enhancing cash efficiency.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue187.67B189.19B208.35B241.39B157.74B105.94B
Gross Profit36.51B30.24B64.06B55.10B22.86B10.18B
EBITDA31.63B27.98B43.50B32.35B32.55B-7.04B
Net Income1.52B381.00M15.24B-2.49B7.57B-20.30B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets280.46B282.23B280.29B288.12B287.27B267.65B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments35.05B34.52B28.59B23.91B26.22B29.53B
Total Debt74.82B71.55B63.08B55.49B69.79B81.93B
Total Liabilities202.81B203.91B194.80B205.13B196.83B182.09B
Stockholders Equity58.24B59.25B70.28B67.55B75.46B71.25B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow10.67B12.00B17.75B28.86B12.72B-144.00M
Operating Cash Flow24.30B27.30B32.04B40.93B23.61B12.16B
Investing Cash Flow-11.24B-13.25B-14.87B-13.71B-5.69B-7.86B
Financing Cash Flow-12.51B-7.30B-13.36B-28.02B-18.08B3.96B

BP Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price36.53
Price Trends
50DMA
34.24
Positive
100DMA
33.21
Positive
200DMA
31.43
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.73
Negative
RSI
64.75
Neutral
STOCH
53.14
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 36.53 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 34.89, above the 50-day MA of 34.24, and above the 200-day MA of 31.43, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.73 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.75 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 53.14 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BP.

BP Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
$215.98B15.388.06%3.78%-6.96%0.03%
77
Outperform
$141.03B10.2612.27%5.59%-9.52%-11.66%
77
Outperform
$81.86B6.1518.20%12.65%-11.63%-15.67%
75
Outperform
$503.07B17.3311.32%3.35%-4.17%-14.15%
74
Outperform
$317.37B22.257.38%4.29%-3.44%-22.05%
68
Neutral
$94.35B60.772.52%5.32%-4.11%-37.59%
65
Neutral
$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
BP
BP
36.53
8.76
31.54%
CVX
Chevron
157.62
2.27
1.46%
XOM
Exxon Mobil
119.29
3.24
2.79%
PBR
Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras
13.18
0.53
4.19%
SHEL
Shell
75.76
12.09
18.99%
TTE
TotalEnergies
65.40
6.95
11.89%

BP Corporate Events

BP Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results with Strategic Progress
Nov 4, 2025

On November 4, 2025, BP announced its third-quarter and nine-month financial results for 2025, highlighting strong operational performance and strategic progress. The company reported a profit of $1.2 billion for the third quarter, with significant contributions from improved upstream plant reliability and increased refining availability. BP has successfully launched six major projects in 2025 and anticipates divestment proceeds to exceed $4 billion for the year. The company continues to focus on cost reduction, balance sheet strengthening, and enhancing cash flow and returns, aiming for further improvements in efficiency and cost performance.

BP Reports Strong Financial Performance for Q3 2025
Nov 4, 2025

BP p.l.c. reported its financial results for the third quarter and the first nine months of 2025, highlighting strong operational performance and strategic progress. The company achieved a profit of $1,509 million for the third quarter of 2025, a significant increase compared to $370 million in the same period of 2024. For the nine-month period ending September 30, 2025, BP’s profit attributable to shareholders was $3,477 million, up from $2,340 million in 2024. This financial performance underscores BP’s effective management and strategic initiatives, reinforcing its position in the energy sector and providing positive implications for its stakeholders.

BP Announces Total Voting Rights and Share Capital Update
Nov 3, 2025

On November 3, 2025, BP p.l.c. announced its total voting rights and share capital as of October 31, 2025. The company reported an issued share capital of 15,682,012,524 ordinary shares, each with one vote, and 12,706,252 preference shares, with two votes for every £5 in nominal capital held. BP holds 804,300,470 treasury shares, which do not participate in dividend payments or voting. The total number of voting rights is 15,687,095,024, information crucial for shareholders under the FCA’s Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rules.

BP Executes Share Buyback Program in October 2025
Nov 3, 2025

BP p.l.c. announced a series of transactions in its own shares throughout October 2025, as part of a buyback program initiated in August 2025. The company purchased millions of its ordinary shares on the London Stock Exchange and Cboe (UK) with the intent to transfer these shares into Treasury. This move is in line with the authority granted by shareholders at the 2025 Annual General Meeting and reflects BP’s strategy to manage its capital structure and return value to shareholders.

BP’s Third Quarter 2025 Trading Statement Highlights Mixed Performance
Oct 14, 2025

On October 14, 2025, BP released its third quarter trading statement, highlighting expectations for higher upstream production compared to the previous quarter, driven by increased gas production in bpx energy and the gas & low carbon energy segment. The company anticipates broadly flat realizations in oil production and operations, with a slight increase in exploration write-offs. In the customers & products segment, BP expects stronger refining margins but notes the impact of environmental compliance costs and an unplanned outage. The company also foresees post-tax adjusting items related to asset impairments and a stable net debt level, despite higher income taxes and bond redemptions. These developments indicate a mixed performance with potential implications for BP’s financial stability and market positioning.

BP Completes Share Buyback Program in September 2025
Oct 1, 2025

In September 2025, BP p.l.c. executed a series of share buybacks as part of a program announced in August 2025, purchasing millions of its ordinary shares on the London Stock Exchange and Cboe (UK). These transactions, conducted with the authority granted by shareholders at the 2025 Annual General Meeting, are intended to strengthen BP’s financial position by reducing the number of shares in circulation, potentially increasing the value of remaining shares and demonstrating confidence in the company’s future prospects.

BP Announces Total Voting Rights and Share Capital as of September 2025
Oct 1, 2025

On October 1, 2025, BP p.l.c. announced its total voting rights and share capital as of September 30, 2025. The company reported an issued share capital of 15,767,494,382 ordinary shares and 12,706,252 preference shares, with a total of 15,772,576,882 voting rights. This information is crucial for shareholders to determine their interest in BP under the FCA’s Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rules.

BP Announces Second Quarter 2025 Dividend Payment
Sep 9, 2025

On August 5, 2025, BP p.l.c. announced an interim dividend for the second quarter of 2025, amounting to US$0.0832 per ordinary share, to be paid on September 19, 2025. The dividend will be distributed in sterling for ordinary shares and in US dollars for ADS holders, with no scrip dividend alternative offered. This decision reflects BP’s ongoing commitment to providing returns to its shareholders while maintaining financial stability.

BP Announces Total Voting Rights and Share Capital as of August 31, 2025
Sep 2, 2025

On September 1, 2025, BP p.l.c. announced its total voting rights and share capital as of August 31, 2025. The company’s issued share capital comprised over 15.7 billion ordinary shares and approximately 12.7 million preference shares, with a total of 15,793,712,360 voting rights. This information is crucial for shareholders to determine their interests under the FCA’s Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rules. The announcement underscores BP’s commitment to transparency and regulatory compliance, impacting shareholder decision-making and market perceptions.

BP Announces Share Buyback Program and New Board Appointment
Sep 2, 2025

BP p.l.c. announced a series of transactions involving the repurchase of its own shares throughout August 2025, as part of a buyback program aimed at reducing the company’s issued share capital. The program, which commenced on August 1, 2025, involves a maximum allocation of $750 million and is set to continue until October 31, 2025. Additionally, BP declared the appointment of Hina Nagarajan as a non-executive director to the board of East African Breweries PLC, effective August 4, 2025, and disclosed transactions by persons discharging managerial responsibilities.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 07, 2025