BP plc. (BP)
NYSE:BP
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BP
(NYSE:BP)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$50.00
â–²(5.84% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/12/26
The score is mainly held back by weaker financial performance (near break-even reported earnings and higher leverage despite solid cash flow). Technical trends are supportive with strong momentum and price above key moving averages, while valuation is a drag due to the very high P/E despite an attractive dividend. The latest earnings call was moderately positive on execution, cost reduction and balance-sheet priorities, but impairments and the buyback suspension temper confidence.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Consistent, sizeable operating and free cash flow provides durable capacity to fund organic capex, retire debt, and sustain the dividend. Over the medium term this underpins strategic optionality—supporting project execution, divestments and transition investments even if commodity cycles soften.
Negative Factors
Weakened balance sheet / higher leverage
A higher leverage profile reduces financial flexibility in a cyclical industry, increasing refinancing and covenant risk. It constrains capital allocation choices over the next 2–6 months and raises the priority of divestments and cash generation to rebuild headroom for growth or M&A.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Consistent, sizeable operating and free cash flow provides durable capacity to fund organic capex, retire debt, and sustain the dividend. Over the medium term this underpins strategic optionality—supporting project execution, divestments and transition investments even if commodity cycles soften.
Read all positive factors
BP (BP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$123.78B
Dividend Yield5.62%
Average Volume (3M)18.43M
Price to Earnings (P/E)1640.4
Beta (1Y)0.30
Revenue Growth-4.11%
EPS Growth-37.59%
CountryUS
Employees100,500
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Integrated
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.60
Shares Outstanding2,616,813,500
10 Day Avg. Volume25,846,665
30 Day Avg. Volume18,432,869
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-19.30
Price to Book (P/B)1.70
Price to Sales (P/S)0.48
P/FCF Ratio7.99
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.23
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.80
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.54
Enterprise Value/Ebitda4.96
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$43.81Price Target Upside-7.26% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering13
EPS Forecast (FY)4.05
Revenue Forecast (FY)$178.56B
BP Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
BP p.l.c. provides carbon products and services. The company operates through Gas & Low Carbon Energy, Oil Production & Operations, and Customers & Products segments. It engages in the production of natural gas, and integrated gas and power; tradi...
How the Company Makes Money
BP makes money primarily by producing, processing, trading, and selling energy and energy-related products and services across several interconnected business lines. Upstream (oil and gas production): BP earns revenue by selling produced crude oil...
BP Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Product
Breaks down sales by product type, revealing which offerings are most popular and where there might be opportunities for expansion or risk of decline.
Breaks down sales by product type, revealing which offerings are most popular and where there might be opportunities for expansion or risk of decline.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyBP Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 10, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed clear operational and financial progress in 2025 — strong project execution, substantial cost reductions, improved ROACE and marked emissions and reliability gains — alongside a disciplined focus on strengthening the balance sheet and high‑grading the portfolio. Material positives (adjusted free cash flow growth of ~55%, reserves replacement improvement to 90%, record reliability and emissions reductions) outweigh sizable negatives (four fatalities, ~$4 billion of impairments, suspension of buybacks and remaining net debt/divestment timing risks). Management emphasized execution, capital discipline and selective investment in a deep resource hopper while acknowledging there is more to do.Positive Updates
Adjusted Free Cash Flow Growth
Generated around $13 billion of adjusted free cash flow in 2025 (reported and price-adjusted), representing ~55% growth year-over-year on a price-adjusted basis versus 2024 and ahead of the >20% CAGR through 2027 target trajectory.
Negative Updates
Workplace Fatalities
Four colleagues tragically died in 2025 while working in BP's U.S. retail business (struck by passing vehicles during roadside assistance). BP has permanently stopped roadside assistance next to active traffic lanes in response.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Adjusted Free Cash Flow Growth
Generated around $13 billion of adjusted free cash flow in 2025 (reported and price-adjusted), representing ~55% growth year-over-year on a price-adjusted basis versus 2024 and ahead of the >20% CAGR through 2027 target trajectory.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated a disciplined, cash‑and‑returns‑first plan: 2025 underlying replacement cost profit was $7.5bn and adjusted free cash flow ≈$13bn (price‑adjusted, ~55% y/y on a $70/bbl basis), operating cash flow $24.5bn (and $30.4bn including divestment proceeds), net debt $22.2bn (down $0.8bn vs 2024) with a target range of $14–18bn by end‑2027, and the Board has suspended buybacks to fully allocate excess cash to the balance sheet; 2025 CapEx was $14.5bn (organic $13.6bn) and 2026 CapEx is guided to $13–13.5bn, dividends remain the first priority (DPS $0.0832, at least +4% p.a.), and divestments are on track for $20bn (≈$11bn completed/announced, $5.3bn received in 2025, $6bn expected from Castrol, and $3–4bn expected in 2026 H2‑weighted). Operational and cost targets include >20% CAGR in adjusted FCF through 2027, ROACE ~14% in 2025 with a >16% price‑adjusted target for 2027, $2.8bn of structural cost reductions delivered to date (~$2bn in 2025) with the target raised to $5.5–6.5bn by 2027 and a plan to reduce underlying Opex to ~$19–20bn by 2027; other metrics: unit production cost ≈$6/boe (4‑yr avg), refinery/plant availability >96%, wells reliability ~98%, methane intensity ~0.04% (target 0.2%), operational emissions down 37% vs 2019, 2025 organic reserve replacement ratio 90% (100% by 2027 goal), 2026 production (ex‑divestments) ~2.3mboe/d, 7 major project start‑ups in 2025 (≈150k of 250k boe/d net peak online toward 2027), and ~$4bn of impairments taken in Q4 largely in transition businesses.BP Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
54
Neutral
Balance Sheet
45
Neutral
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 189.34B | 189.19B | 210.13B | 241.39B | 157.74B |
| Gross Profit | 33.53B | 30.24B | 48.07B | 55.10B | 22.86B |
| EBITDA | 31.07B | 28.74B | 43.50B | 32.35B | 32.55B |
| Net Income | 55.00M | 381.00M | 15.24B | -2.49B | 7.57B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 278.53B | 282.23B | 280.29B | 288.12B | 287.27B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 36.71B | 34.52B | 28.59B | 23.91B | 26.22B |
| Total Debt | 84.27B | 71.55B | 63.08B | 55.49B | 69.79B |
| Total Liabilities | 204.53B | 203.91B | 194.80B | 205.13B | 196.83B |
| Stockholders Equity | 53.05B | 59.25B | 70.28B | 67.55B | 75.46B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 11.30B | 12.00B | 17.75B | 28.86B | 12.72B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 24.55B | 27.30B | 32.04B | 40.93B | 23.61B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -9.05B | -13.25B | -14.87B | -13.71B | -5.69B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -18.39B | -7.30B | -13.36B | -28.02B | -18.08B |
BP Technical Analysis
Positive
47.24
Price Trends
40.83
Positive
37.90
Positive
35.21
Positive
Market Momentum
2.01
Negative
68.71
Neutral
77.31
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 47.24 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 44.87, above the 50-day MA of 40.83, and above the 200-day MA of 35.21, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 68.71 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 77.31 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BP.
BP Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $127.33B | 3.80 | 27.02% | 14.10% | -11.63% | -15.67% | |
74 Outperform | $402.15B | 22.91 | 7.32% | 4.54% | -3.44% | -22.05% | |
72 Outperform | $682.97B | 18.07 | 11.04% | 3.35% | -4.17% | -14.15% | |
71 Outperform | $268.51B | 12.77 | 10.06% | 3.92% | -6.96% | 0.03% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
60 Neutral | $123.78B | 1,640.39 | 0.10% | 5.62% | -4.11% | -37.59% |
* Energy Sector Average
BP
BP
47.24
20.88
79.19%
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BP Corporate Events
BP Updates Total Voting Rights and Share Capital as of March 31, 2026
Apr 1, 2026
As of 31 March 2026, BP reported an issued share capital of 15,700,880,610 ordinary shares with one vote each and 12,706,252 preference shares carrying two votes for every £5 of nominal capital. The company also held 785,432,384 ordinary shar...
BP details March 2026 insider share dealings and sets sterling payout for Q4 2025 dividend
Apr 1, 2026
In March 2026, BP reported several management share transactions and confirmed details of its fourth-quarter 2025 interim dividend. Interim CEO Carol Howle and CFO Kate Thomson acquired small amounts of BP ordinary shares on 10 March 2026 via the ...
BP to Sell Gelsenkirchen Refinery to Klesch in Push to Cut Costs and Streamline Portfolio
Mar 19, 2026
On 19 March 2026, BP agreed to sell its Gelsenkirchen refinery complex in Germany and associated businesses, including the Bottrop tank farm, DHC Solvent Chemie and related logistics and marketing operations, to independent European refiner Klesch...
BP Announces Multiple Board Exits and New Safety and Sustainability Chair
Mar 6, 2026
On 6 March 2026, BP announced a series of board changes set to take effect at the conclusion of its annual general meeting on 23 April 2026. After nine years of service, non-executive director Melody Meyer will retire from the board, marking the e...
BP Files 2025 Annual Report and Sets 2026 AGM for April 23
Mar 6, 2026
On 6 March 2026, BP published its 2025 Annual Report and Form 20‑F, along with the Notice of its 2026 Annual General Meeting, proxy form, notification card, and proposed new articles of association. The release follows the company’s un...
BP Updates Total Voting Rights and Share Capital as of 28 February 2026
Mar 2, 2026
BP p.l.c. is a global energy company headquartered in London, operating primarily in the oil and gas industry with a broad shareholder base across international capital markets. Its listed equity structure includes ordinary and preference shares, ...
BP Advances November 2025 Buyback With Early February 2026 Share Repurchases
Mar 2, 2026
In early February 2026, BP p.l.c. continued executing the share buyback programme it announced in November 2025, repurchasing millions of its ordinary shares on the London Stock Exchange and Cboe UK between 2 and 5 February under authority granted...
BP posts strong 2025 underlying results, suspends buybacks to strengthen balance sheet
Feb 10, 2026
BP reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on 10 February 2026, showing underlying replacement cost profit of $7.5 billion for the year and $1.5 billion for the quarter, supported by $24.5 billion in operating cash flow despite lowe...
BP posts volatile 2025 results as Form 6-K shows Q4 loss and slim full-year profit
Feb 10, 2026
BP has filed a Form 6-K for the period ended 31 December 2025, providing management’s discussion and analysis, consolidated financial statements, details of legal proceedings, and capitalization and indebtedness for the fourth quarter and fu...
BP Updates Total Voting Rights and Share Capital as of 31 January 2026
Feb 2, 2026
On 2 February 2026, BP disclosed that as of 31 January 2026 its issued share capital comprised 15,719,635,323 ordinary shares (excluding treasury shares) with one vote per share and 12,706,252 preference shares with enhanced voting rights, resulti...
BP Expands January 2026 Buybacks and Discloses Norges Bank Holding Change
Feb 2, 2026
In January 2026, BP reported a series of transactions in its own shares under the share buyback programme launched on 4 November 2025 and authorized by shareholders at the 2025 annual general meeting. On 5 January 2026, the company repurchased 3,0...
BP Signals Flat Q4 2025 Output, Heavy Transition Impairments and Lower Net Debt
Jan 14, 2026
On 14 January 2026, BP issued a trading statement outlining its current estimates for fourth-quarter 2025 performance, ahead of publishing full results on 10 February 2026. The company expects reported upstream production in the quarter to be broa...
BP Updates Share Capital After Large Treasury Share Transfer for Employee Schemes
Jan 13, 2026
On 13 January 2026, BP p.l.c. transferred 145,012,557 ordinary shares out of treasury to satisfy distributions under certain employee share schemes, reducing its treasury stock and marginally increasing the free float. Following this transaction, ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.