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BP
(NYSE:BP)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$40.00
▼(-10.29% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/04/26
The score is anchored by mixed financial performance: solid cash flow and positive operating profitability are tempered by very thin net profitability and higher leverage. Technicals are supportive with the stock above major moving averages and positive MACD. Valuation is a meaningful positive (low P/E and strong dividend), while the latest earnings call was moderately constructive on execution and deleveraging focus but flagged near-term headwinds (working-capital build, paused buybacks, refining margin pressure, and regional disruption risk).
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation and FCF
Consistent multi‑billion operating cash flow and positive free cash flow provide durable funding for capex, dividends and deleveraging. This structural cash generation supports management’s net‑debt targets and reduces reliance on external funding through commodity cycles, improving long‑term financial flexibility.
Negative Factors
Rising leverage and weakened balance sheet flexibility
Elevated debt relative to equity materially reduces financial flexibility and increases vulnerability to commodity or macro shocks. Higher leverage constrains capital allocation choices, slows return of capital to shareholders until deleveraging completes, and raises refinancing and interest‑cost sensitivity over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation and FCF
Consistent multi‑billion operating cash flow and positive free cash flow provide durable funding for capex, dividends and deleveraging. This structural cash generation supports management’s net‑debt targets and reduces reliance on external funding through commodity cycles, improving long‑term financial flexibility.
Read all positive factors
BP Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Product
Breaks down sales by product type, revealing which offerings are most popular and where there might be opportunities for expansion or risk of decline.
Breaks down sales by product type, revealing which offerings are most popular and where there might be opportunities for expansion or risk of decline.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyBP (BP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$101.29B
Dividend Yield5.62%
Average Volume (3M)8.48M
Price to Earnings (P/E)31.8
Beta (1Y)0.22
Revenue Growth4.29%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees100,500
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Integrated
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.25
Shares Outstanding2,747,718,800
10 Day Avg. Volume8,085,028
30 Day Avg. Volume8,481,462
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-19.46
Price to Book (P/B)1.70
Price to Sales (P/S)0.48
P/FCF Ratio7.99
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.40
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.73
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.77
Enterprise Value/Ebitda4.06
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$52.29Price Target Upside17.26% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)5.17
Revenue Forecast (FY)$218.91B
BP Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
BP p.l.c. operates as a global energy company, offering a wide array of carbon-based and sustainable products and services. Its operations are structured across three primary segments: Gas & Low Carbon Energy, Oil Production & Operations, and Cust...
How the Company Makes Money
BP primarily makes money by producing, processing, trading, and selling energy and related products and services across multiple segments. (1) Upstream (oil and gas production): BP earns revenue from selling crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas...
BP Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 28, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong operational execution (production, refining availability and throughput), solid underlying financial performance and clear strategic actions (portfolio simplification, cost reductions, hybrid reduction plan, capex discipline and exploration successes). Offsetting negatives included a sizable working capital build that increased net debt, paused buybacks, margin pressure in refining driven by feedstock/yield/freight dynamics, regional disruption risk in the Middle East and some uncertainty around commercialization of a very large discovery. Overall, the positive operational and strategic developments and explicit balance-sheet actions outweigh the near-term financial and market headwinds.Positive Updates
Strong production and refinery performance
Produced 2.3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day; refining availability above the 96% target and throughput over 1.5 million barrels per day — the highest quarterly throughput in four years.
Negative Updates
Working capital build increased net debt this quarter
Net debt increased this quarter largely due to a $6.0 billion working capital build, creating short-term balance-sheet pressure despite management confidence in meeting net debt targets.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong production and refinery performance
Produced 2.3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day; refining availability above the 96% target and throughput over 1.5 million barrels per day — the highest quarterly throughput in four years.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The management reiterated a clear focus on balance‑sheet repair and disciplined capital allocation, reiterating the net‑debt target range of $14–18 billion and a plan to reduce the corporate hybrid stack by over $4 billion by end‑2027 (with the first redemption window in Q2), having paused buybacks; CapEx is framed at $13–15 billion over the next two years (with 2026 tightened to about $13 billion). Operational and near‑term financial metrics highlighted included production of 2.3 million boe/d, refining availability above the 96% target with throughput over 1.5 million bpd (the highest quarterly throughput in four years), underlying net income of $3.2 billion and operating cash flow of $8.9 billion before a $6 billion working‑capital build. They also flagged strategic progress and optionality — 14 discoveries since start‑2025 (including the Bumerangue ~8 billion barrels in place), an LNG portfolio of ~27 mtpa strategic plus ~15 mtpa merchant, a 100% reserve‑replacement ambition by 2027, and continued delivery of structural cost reductions (another $300 million delivered, ~70% of the 4–5% target).BP Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
48
Neutral
Cash Flow
62
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 194.69B | 189.34B | 189.19B | 210.13B | 241.39B | 157.74B |
| Gross Profit | 37.72B | 33.53B | 30.24B | 48.07B | 55.10B | 22.86B |
| EBITDA | 35.02B | 31.07B | 28.74B | 43.50B | 32.35B | 32.55B |
| Net Income | 3.20B | 55.00M | 381.00M | 15.24B | -2.49B | 7.57B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 301.74B | 278.53B | 282.23B | 280.29B | 288.12B | 287.27B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 35.76B | 36.71B | 34.52B | 28.59B | 23.91B | 26.22B |
| Total Debt | 74.18B | 84.27B | 71.55B | 63.08B | 55.49B | 69.79B |
| Total Liabilities | 224.78B | 204.53B | 203.91B | 194.80B | 205.13B | 196.83B |
| Stockholders Equity | 55.96B | 53.05B | 59.25B | 70.28B | 67.55B | 75.46B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 11.41B | 11.30B | 12.00B | 17.75B | 28.86B | 12.72B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 24.49B | 24.55B | 27.30B | 32.04B | 40.93B | 23.61B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -9.71B | -9.05B | -13.25B | -14.87B | -13.71B | -5.69B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -12.93B | -18.39B | -7.30B | -13.36B | -28.02B | -18.08B |
BP Technical Analysis
Negative
44.59
Price Trends
42.74
Negative
42.39
Negative
38.35
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.78
Positive
33.90
Neutral
13.22
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 44.59 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 40.17, above the 50-day MA of 42.74, and above the 200-day MA of 38.35, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.78 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 33.90 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 13.22 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BP.
BP Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $100.31B | 6.15 | 27.02% | 14.10% | 3.35% | 133.76% | |
67 Neutral | $336.98B | 29.22 | 6.23% | 4.54% | -2.16% | -33.98% | |
67 Neutral | $568.16B | 23.22 | 9.77% | 3.35% | -3.07% | -21.84% | |
66 Neutral | $214.87B | 12.08 | 10.58% | 3.92% | -5.34% | 47.93% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
63 Neutral | $101.29B | 31.82 | 5.52% | 5.62% | 4.29% | ― |
* Energy Sector Average
BP
BP
37.40
8.68
30.24%
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TTE
TotalEnergies SE
76.69
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33.00%
BP Corporate Events
BP Updates Share Capital and Voting Rights as of June 30, 2026
Jul 1, 2026
BP p.l.c. reported that as of 30 June 2026 its issued share capital comprised 16,486,312,994 ordinary shares with one vote each and 12,706,252 preference shares with two votes per £5 in nominal capital. The company also disclosed that it held...
BP details first-quarter 2026 dividend and executive share acquisitions under UK plan
Jul 1, 2026
BP confirmed that its board had previously declared a first-quarter 2026 interim dividend of US$0.0832 per ordinary share (US$0.4992 per ADS), to be paid on 26 June 2026 to shareholders of record on 15 May 2026, with ordinary share holders receivi...
BP files 2025 payments-to-governments transparency report
Jun 8, 2026
On 8 June 2026 BP published its consolidated Report on Payments to Governments for the year ended 31 December 2025, complying with UK regulations and Financial Conduct Authority disclosure rules. The filing details how BP captures and discloses ca...
BP Updates Share Capital and Total Voting Rights as of 31 May 2026
Jun 1, 2026
BP p.l.c. reported that as of 31 May 2026 its issued share capital comprised 15,702,499,904 ordinary shares, each carrying one vote, and 12,706,252 preference shares, which carry two votes for every £5 of nominal capital. The company also dis...
BP Executives Acquire Shares Under May 2026 ShareMatch Plan
Jun 1, 2026
On 11 May 2026, several senior BP executives acquired small amounts of BP ordinary shares through participation in the company’s ShareMatch UK Plan, according to disclosures filed for the period ended 31 May 2026. Chief financial officer and...
BP Board Ousts Chair Albert Manifold Over Governance Concerns, Names Ian Tyler Interim
May 26, 2026
BP p.l.c. on 26 May 2026 removed Albert Manifold as chair and director with immediate effect after the board unanimously concluded that serious concerns over governance standards, oversight and conduct made his position untenable. Senior independe...
BP Executives Reinvest Dividends to Increase Shareholdings in April 2026
May 1, 2026
On 1 April 2026, several of BP’s senior executives increased their holdings of the company’s ordinary shares through participation in a dividend reinvestment plan. Chief financial officer and director Kate Thomson, EVP production oper...
BP Reports Total Voting Rights and Share Capital as of 30 April 2026
May 1, 2026
As at 30 April 2026, BP reported an issued share capital of 15,702,101,757 ordinary shares, each carrying one vote, and 12,706,252 preference shares, which carry two votes for every £5 of nominal capital. The company also held 784,211,237 ord...
BP Posts Strong Q1 2026 Rebound and Raises Cost-Cut Target After Gelsenkirchen Sale Deal
Apr 28, 2026
BP reported first-quarter 2026 results on 28 April, showing a sharp rebound to a $3.8 billion profit attributable to shareholders and underlying replacement cost profit of $3.2 billion, up from $1.5 billion in the prior quarter. The improvement wa...
BP Posts Strong First-Quarter 2026 Rebound, Feeding Into Key U.S. Filings
Apr 28, 2026
BP reported its group results for the first quarter of 2026 in a Form 6-K for the three months ended 31 March 2026, highlighting “continued strong operational and financial delivery” after a volatile prior year. Profit attributable to ...
BP AGM 2026: Core Board Resolutions Pass but Governance Proposals Face Significant Shareholder Dissent
Apr 23, 2026
BP held its 2026 annual general meeting in London on 23 April 2026, with around 59% of issued share capital voting on most resolutions. Shareholders strongly backed the annual report, directors’ pay, board elections, auditor reappointment an...
BP Updates Total Voting Rights After April Treasury Share Transfer
Apr 20, 2026
BP p.l.c. disclosed that on 10 April 2026 it transferred 355,880 ordinary shares out of treasury to satisfy distributions under certain employee share schemes, slightly reducing its treasury stock position. Following the move, BP now holds 784,211...
BP Flags Exceptional Oil Trading and Higher Net Debt in Volatile First Quarter 2026
Apr 14, 2026
On 14 April 2026, BP issued a first-quarter 2026 trading statement outlining preliminary estimates for its performance amid heightened volatility in oil, gas and refined product markets linked to the ongoing Middle East situation. The group expect...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.