BP (BP) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $80.65B
• Dividend Yield: 6.08%
• Average Volume (3M): 8.60M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 186.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.35
• Revenue Growth: -7.70%
• EPS Growth: -113.83%
• Country: US
• Employees: 100,500
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 76
• Industry: Oil & Gas Integrated
• EPS (TTM): 0.53
• Shares Outstanding: 2,651,863,800
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 9,689,098
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 8,596,600
• PEG Ratio: 4.11
• Price to Book (P/B): 9.82
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 22.98
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 8.55
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.89
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 23.87
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 5.42
• 1Y Price Target: $30.56
• Price Target Upside: -2.21% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 12

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: $32.00 ▲(2.40%Upside)

BP's overall stock score reflects a mixed financial performance with operational efficiencies and cash flow resilience, offset by recent net losses and revenue declines. The earnings call provided positive insights into operational success and cost management, although challenges remain with gas trading and debt levels. Technical indicators show mild short-term momentum but longer-term weakness, and the valuation is pressured by negative earnings despite a strong dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Activist Influence

Activism has been a positive force, sharpening BP's focus on leverage and divestments, and catalyzing Board changes.

Financial Management

BP's management has set clear financial targets around free cash flow growth, structural cost reduction, net debt, and overall group return on average capital employed.

Shareholder Returns

BP expects to consistently return 30-40% of adjusted cash flow from operations to shareholders, comparable to peers.

Negative Factors

Debt and Leverage

BP has the highest leverage in the sector, and current macro conditions put its plan to reduce net debt at risk, potentially leading to suspended buybacks.

Operational Challenges

BP's upstream rebuilding will take time due to years of under-investment, resulting in the lowest reserve life and replacement ratio in the sector.

Valuation Concerns

BP's valuation isn't cheap, with NTM earnings estimates falling more than the sector, leading to a higher relative PE re-rating compared to its peers.

BP Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

BP (British Petroleum) is a global energy company headquartered in London, United Kingdom. It operates in all areas of the energy sector including oil and gas exploration and production, refining, distribution and marketing, petrochemicals, power generation, and trading. BP is also investing in renewable energy sources and technologies, aiming to transition towards a more sustainable energy future. The company serves various markets worldwide, providing fuel, energy, and associated products and services.

How the Company Makes Money

BP generates revenue through multiple streams across the energy sector. The primary revenue source is the exploration and production of oil and natural gas, where BP discovers, extracts, and sells crude oil and natural gas. The refining and marketing segment contributes significantly, involving the processing of crude oil into refined products such as gasoline, diesel, and lubricants, which are then marketed and sold. BP's trading arm actively trades crude oil, refined products, natural gas, power, and currencies, leveraging market fluctuations. Additionally, BP has been expanding its presence in renewable energy, including solar and wind power, aiming to diversify its portfolio and revenue streams as part of its energy transition strategy. Strategic partnerships and joint ventures, such as those with technology providers and other energy firms, further enhance BP's capabilities and market reach.

BP Financial Statement Overview

Summary

BP shows a mixed financial picture with challenges in income stability due to recent losses, yet maintains a strong operational framework and cash flow resilience. The balance sheet remains stable, with manageable leverage and a strong asset base. While recent revenue declines and net losses are concerns, BP's operational efficiency and cash management provide a foundation for potential recovery and growth.

Income Statement

BP's income statement shows a mixed performance with a negative net income in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) due to a loss of $1.195 billion. The gross profit margin stands at approximately 15.42% for TTM, which is moderate for the industry. EBIT and EBITDA margins are solid at 8.40% and 14.11%, respectively, indicating operational efficiency despite revenue fluctuations. However, revenue has declined from the previous year, impacting overall profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a stable equity position with a debt-to-equity ratio of approximately 1.22, indicating reasonable leverage. The equity ratio is about 20.69%, showcasing a balanced capital structure. Return on equity is negative due to the net loss, which is a concern. Overall, BP maintains a robust asset base and financial stability despite recent challenges.

Cash Flow

BP's cash flow statement indicates strong cash generation capabilities with an operating cash flow to net income ratio of approximately -21.02, due to negative net income. Free cash flow is positive at $10.192 billion in TTM, although it has decreased from the previous year. Despite fluctuations, BP demonstrates solid cash management, which is crucial for sustaining operations and investments.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
187.21B	189.19B	208.35B	241.39B	157.74B	105.94B
	Gross Profit
28.89B	30.24B	64.06B	55.10B	22.86B	10.18B
	EBIT
15.72B	13.62B	46.98B	44.76B	15.09B	-346.00M
	EBITDA
26.41B	27.98B	43.50B	59.47B	32.55B	14.54B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-1.20B	381.00M	15.24B	-1.36B	7.57B	-20.73B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
34.05B	34.52B	28.59B	29.77B	30.96B	29.53B
	Total Assets
281.40B	282.23B	280.29B	288.12B	287.27B	267.65B
	Total Debt
71.13B	71.55B	63.08B	55.49B	69.79B	81.93B
	Net Debt
37.36B	37.19B	35.33B	26.30B	39.11B	52.73B
	Total Liabilities
203.44B	203.91B	194.80B	205.13B	196.83B	182.09B
	Stockholders Equity
58.22B	59.25B	70.28B	67.55B	75.46B	71.25B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
10.19B	12.00B	17.75B	28.86B	12.72B	-144.00M
	Operating Cash Flow
25.12B	27.30B	32.04B	40.93B	23.61B	12.16B
	Investing Cash Flow
-12.66B	-13.25B	-14.87B	-13.71B	-5.69B	-7.86B
	Financing Cash Flow
-9.99B	-7.30B	-13.36B	-28.02B	-18.08B	3.96B

BP Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 31.25
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 31.25 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 29.95, above the 50-day MA of 28.90, and above the 200-day MA of 30.01, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.61 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.38 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.15 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BP.

BP Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CVX	78 Outperform	$258.80B	16.99	10.11%	4.57%	-1.05%	-19.71%
TTE	78 Outperform	$132.85B	10.27	11.75%	4.54%	-9.86%	-32.59%
XOM	77 Outperform	$487.81B	14.97	14.18%	3.45%	2.36%	-7.18%
SHEL	76 Outperform	$215.19B	16.50	7.40%	3.96%	-2.62%	-20.13%
PBR	75 Outperform	$79.96B	9.89	11.25%	29.61%	-10.84%	-61.73%
BP	68 Neutral	$80.65B	186.20	-1.87%	6.08%	-7.70%	-113.83%
Sector *	58 Neutral	$7.58B	3.26	-4.46%	10.01%	0.88%	-49.72%