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Ypf Sociedad Anonima (YPF)
NYSE:YPF
Earnings Data
Report Date
May 08, 2026TBA (Confirmed)
Period Ending
2026 (Q1)Consensus EPS Forecast
0.72Last Year’s EPS
-0.04Same Quarter Last Year
Moderate Buy
Based on 3 Analysts Ratings
Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Sentiment|Positive
The call presents a predominantly positive operational and strategic picture: record EBITDA and margins, rapid shale production growth, significant reserve expansion, major cost reductions, strong refining performance, successful M&A and financing activity, and clear 2026 targets. The main negatives are substantial one-off cash outflows and a negative FY free cash flow driven by acquisitions and exit costs, large near-term CapEx and project financing needs (notably for LNG), evacuation bottlenecks that may constrain H1 2026 growth, and upcoming debt maturities. Management provided concrete guidance and financing actions to mitigate risks and expects improved leverage and EBITDA in 2026, so the positives materially outweigh the negatives.Company Guidance
Record EBITDA and Margin Expansion
Adjusted EBITDA reached $5.0 billion in 2025 (highest in 10 years and 3rd largest in company history), up 8% year-on-year; EBITDA margin increased from 24% in 2024 to 27% in 2025. Q4 adjusted EBITDA was nearly $1.3 billion, representing ~53% internal growth versus prior period.
Rapid Shale Production Ramp
Shale oil production grew strongly: 35% for 2025 (165,000 bbl/d average) and 42% year-on-year in December 2025, reaching 204,000 bbl/d (exceeding the 190,000 bbl/d target). Company targets ~215,000 bbl/d for 2026 with a year-end shale exit rate of ~250,000 bbl/d.
Material Cost Reductions in Upstream
Total lifting costs declined 26% to $11.6/BOE in 2025; Q4 lifting costs fell 44% year-on-year to $9.6/BOE. Shale hub lifting cost remained best-in-class at $4.4/BOE; pro forma lifting cost excluding divested conventional assets would be below $8/BOE.
Major Reserve and Resource Expansion
Vaca Muerta shale reserves expanded by 32% in 2025 and now represent 88% of total peak oil reserves. Total P1 reserves grew 17% year-on-year; reserve replacement ratio increased to 3.2x (reserve life ~9 years overall; pro forma total P1 reserve life ~8 years excluding divested conventionals).
Operational and Productivity Breakthroughs
Record drilling and fracking speeds (drilling avg 324 m/day in 2025 with record 378 m/day in Jan; fracking 262 stages/month avg with record 282), drilling speed improvements +66% vs Jan 2023 and fracking +61%. Oil wells tied-in increased 26% to 250 wells on a growth basis.
Refining and Downstream Outperformance
Record refinery utilization and processing: average 95% utilization and 320,000 bbl/d processing in 2025 (+6% internal growth); Q4 reached 99% (335,000 bbl/d) and later 352,000 bbl/d (104% utilization). Downstream adjusted EBITDA margin jumped to $22.6/boe in Q4 (FY $17.2/boe).
Successful M&A and Portfolio Optimization
Key acquisitions in Vaca Muerta (3 world-class blocks) and strategic asset swaps secured critical wet-gas blocks for Argentina LNG. Disposals included 50% of Profertil for $635M and sale of Manantiales Behr for ~$410M (+$40M earn-out), with planned divestments (e.g., Metrogas) expected to generate further proceeds (~$1 billion+ total expected proceeds cited).
Strengthened Balance Sheet and Financing Access
Raised $3.7 billion in 2025 across international ($1.6B) and local ($1.4B) markets and trade-related loans ($700M). Closed year with net leverage of 1.9x (improved from 2.1x in Q3) and year-end cash/short-term investments of ~$1.2B; undrawn export-backed loan capacity of $650M available.
CapEx Discipline and Investment Focus
Executed $4.5 billion investment plan with ~75% allocated to unconventional; 2025 CapEx ended ~10% below original estimate due to operational improvements and lower dollar costs. 2026 CapEx guidance set at $5.5–$5.8 billion with ~70% to shale.
Safety and Operational Risk Management
Improved safety metrics: frequency rate 0.09 accidents per million hours worked; upstream lost time injury rate 0.15 (below international benchmark 0.24) and downstream 0.06, highlighting improved safety performance.
Argentina LNG Project Progress
Argentina LNG foundational sponsors formalized (YPF, ENI, XRG/ADNOC); SESA Tolling phase FID secured for initial ~6 Mtpa with YPF 25% stake. Project economics touted as among the most competitive globally; full project CapEx (including upstream) estimated at ~$20 billion with targeted FID in 2026 and initial COD 2030–2031.
2026 Financial Guidance
2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $5.8–$6.2 billion (assumes Brent ~$63/bbl); FY free cash flow expected neutral to slightly negative after CapEx and infrastructure contributions; net leverage target ~1.6–1.7x by year-end 2026.
YPF Earnings History
The table shows recent earnings report dates and whether the forecast was beat or missed. See the change in forecast and EPS from the previous year.
Beat
Missed
YPF Earnings-Related Price Changes
Report Date | Price 1 Day Before | Price 1 Day After | Percentage Change |
|---|---|---|---|
Feb 26, 2026 | $37.31 | $36.28 | -2.76% |
Nov 07, 2025 | $36.26 | $37.21 | +2.62% |
May 07, 2025 | $30.27 | $30.84 | +1.88% |
Mar 06, 2025 | $33.41 | $33.39 | -0.06% |
Earnings announcements can affect a stock’s price. This table shows the stock's price the day before and the day after recent earnings reports, including the percentage change.
FAQ
When does Ypf Sociedad Anonima (YPF) report earnings?
Ypf Sociedad Anonima (YPF) is schdueled to report earning on May 08, 2026, TBA (Confirmed).
What is Ypf Sociedad Anonima (YPF) earnings time?
Ypf Sociedad Anonima (YPF) earnings time is at May 08, 2026, TBA (Confirmed).
Where can I see when companies are reporting earnings?
You can see which companies are reporting today on our designated earnings calendar.
What companies are reporting earnings today?
You can see a list of the companies which are reporting today on TipRanks earnings calendar.
What is YPF EPS forecast?
YPF EPS forecast for the fiscal quarter 2026 (Q1) is 0.72.