Xponential Fitness (XPOF) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $380.36M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 653.84K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.65
• Revenue Growth: -3.17%
• EPS Growth: -194.72%
• Country: US
• Employees: 288
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 56
• Industry: Leisure
• EPS (TTM): -0.20
• Shares Outstanding: 34,926,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 403,981
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 653,839
• PEG Ratio: -1.92
• Price to Book (P/B): -3.75
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 16.32
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.86
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.55
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.98
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -59.91
• 1Y Price Target: $14.86
• Price Target Upside: 83.91% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7

• Rating: 45 Neutral
• Price Target: $7.50 ▼(-7.18%Downside)

Xponential Fitness's overall score is influenced by significant financial and technical challenges. The company's financial health is weak, with negative profitability and high leverage. Technical indicators show bearish momentum, and valuation metrics are unattractive due to a negative P/E ratio. While the earnings call highlights some growth initiatives, operational and legal challenges dampen the outlook.

Positive Factors

Business Strategy

Xponential Fitness is adopting a franchisee-first mindset, enhancing franchisee economics and long-term success, driving more stable, organic growth.

Leadership and Management

The assembly of a high-caliber leadership team positions Xponential Fitness to execute with greater precision and long-term discipline.

Sales Growth

North American system-wide sales grew 21% to $465M.

Negative Factors

Business Development

Disappointing development outlook as closures remain elevated, with anticipated gross openings lower than expected and closures higher than anticipated.

Financial Guidance

Revenue and EBITDA guidance for 2025 came in lower than expected, reflecting the company’s efforts to improve franchisee performance and address legacy issues.

Stock Performance

Shares are indicating down ~30% after hours which is indicative of the weaker guide.

Xponential Fitness Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Xponential Fitness, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a boutique fitness franchisor in the United States and internationally. The company offers fitness and wellness services, including pilates, barre, cycling, stretching, rowing, yoga, boxing, dancing, running, and functional training under the Club Pilates, Pure Barre, CycleBar, StretchLab, Row House, YogaSix, Rumble, AKT, Stride, and BFT brands. As of December 31, 2021, it had 1,556 franchisees operating 1,954 open studios on an adjusted basis. The company was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Irvine, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Xponential Fitness generates revenue primarily through its franchise business model. The company licenses its boutique fitness brands to franchisees, who in turn operate individual fitness studios under the respective brand names. Revenue streams include initial franchise fees, ongoing royalties based on a percentage of studio sales, and equipment and product sales to franchisees. Additionally, Xponential Fitness benefits from partnerships with third-party vendors and suppliers, offering branded merchandise and fitness equipment. These partnerships and the focus on expanding the franchise network contribute significantly to the company's overall earnings.

Xponential Fitness Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Xponential Fitness faces significant financial challenges, particularly in profitability and balance sheet strength. High leverage and negative equity pose substantial risks. While there are some positive signs in cash flow management, the company needs to improve operational efficiency and profitability to enhance its financial health.

Income Statement

Xponential Fitness shows a mixed income statement profile. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross profit margin is a healthy 74.96%, indicating strong cost management. However, the net profit margin is negative at -21.75%, reflecting ongoing profitability challenges. The revenue growth rate has been inconsistent, with a decline in the most recent TTM period. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also negative, which highlights struggles with operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals significant leverage, with a negative stockholders' equity of -$225.2 million indicating potential financial distress. The debt-to-equity ratio is not meaningful due to negative equity. The return on equity is also negative, further reflecting profitability challenges. The equity ratio is negative, underscoring a precarious financial position.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows some positive aspects, with a TTM free cash flow of $10.48 million. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is positive, suggesting better cash conversion despite net losses. However, the free cash flow growth rate is positive recently, indicating improvements in cash efficiency. The positive operating cash flow is a mitigating factor in an otherwise challenging financial scenario.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
317.11M	320.35M	318.66M	244.95M	155.08M	106.59M
	Gross Profit
237.72M	260.87M	222.09M	162.00M	100.77M	65.37M
	EBIT
-34.50M	-53.61M	39.67M	15.14M	-3.04M	-2.85M
	EBITDA
-34.23M	-35.08M	67.98M	34.39M	-15.78M	6.88M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-68.99M	-64.95M	-17.48M	2.88M	-51.44M	-13.64M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
26.58M	32.74M	27.76M	37.37M	21.32M	11.30M
	Total Assets
412.45M	403.40M	528.70M	482.69M	415.54M	322.84M
	Total Debt
388.64M	379.62M	406.62M	166.66M	131.93M	182.77M
	Net Debt
362.06M	362.95M	378.86M	129.29M	110.61M	171.47M
	Total Liabilities
726.16M	597.40M	616.83M	690.75M	626.01M	318.09M
	Stockholders Equity
-225.20M	-99.76M	-10.59M	-154.78M	-654.43M	4.75M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
10.48M	6.96M	26.05M	35.54M	9.59M	-3.62M
	Operating Cash Flow
15.07M	11.68M	35.42M	51.67M	14.45M	-728.00K
	Investing Cash Flow
-5.94M	-14.15M	-12.59M	-14.61M	-50.63M	-4.60M
	Financing Cash Flow
6.22M	-1.88M	-23.11M	-21.01M	46.20M	7.29M

Xponential Fitness Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 8.08
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For XPOF, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 8.08 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.82, below the 50-day MA of 8.41, and below the 200-day MA of 12.24, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.13 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.96 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 9.15 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for XPOF.

Xponential Fitness Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NATH	66 Neutral	$452.30M	18.85	-102.54%	1.80%	6.91%	22.33%
DIN	65 Neutral	$434.71M	7.71	-42.81%	7.33%	-0.33%	-35.74%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$6.80B	11.04	2.79%	4.42%	2.67%	-25.07%
RICK	60 Neutral	$351.40M	47.59	2.62%	0.70%	-3.93%	-59.06%
FNKO	49 Neutral	$260.39M	―	-9.24%	―	-3.30%	85.53%
XPOF	45 Neutral	$380.36M	―	22.27%	―	-3.17%	-194.72%
CDRO		$358.28M	―		―	―	―

Xponential Fitness Corporate Events

Xponential Fitness Appoints Lily Yang to Board

On June 16, 2025, Xponential Fitness appointed Lily Yang to its Board of Directors and as Chair of the Audit Committee. Yang, with nearly 30 years of experience in finance and accounting roles across technology and healthcare industries, brings significant expertise to the board. Her previous roles include Chief Financial Officer at Strava and Chief Accounting Officer at Pinterest, where she played a key role in the company’s IPO in 2019. This appointment is expected to enhance Xponential’s strategic initiatives and growth strategy, aligning with the company’s mission to support franchise growth and success.

The most recent analyst rating on (XPOF) stock is a Buy with a $35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Xponential Fitness stock, see the XPOF Stock Forecast page.

Xponential Fitness Unveils Strategic Initiatives and Growth Plans

On May 29, 2025, Xponential Fitness released an investor presentation detailing its strategic initiatives and financial performance. The presentation highlighted the company’s focus on optimizing its capital structure and growth strategies, aiming to enhance its competitive position in the boutique fitness industry. The company is moving away from company-owned transition studios and anticipates opening new studios, which is expected to impact its profitability and market presence.

The most recent analyst rating on (XPOF) stock is a Buy with a $35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Xponential Fitness stock, see the XPOF Stock Forecast page.

Xponential Fitness Stockholders Approve Key Governance Decisions

At the 2025 annual meeting of stockholders of Xponential Fitness, Inc. held on May 21, 2025, stockholders approved the election of a Class I director and the ratification of Deloitte & Touche LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025. These decisions are likely to influence the company’s governance and financial oversight, potentially impacting its strategic direction and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (XPOF) stock is a Buy with a $35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Xponential Fitness stock, see the XPOF Stock Forecast page.

Xponential Fitness CEO Mark King Announces Retirement

On May 15, 2025, Xponential Fitness announced that its CEO, Mark King, plans to retire due to health reasons. King will remain in his role until a successor is appointed, ensuring a smooth transition. During his tenure, King focused on franchisee health, customer-centric culture, and strategic growth, contributing significantly to the company’s development. The Board of Directors is committed to a thorough search for a new CEO, with King’s continued support during the transition. The announcement highlights the company’s commitment to maintaining its leadership position in the health and wellness industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (XPOF) stock is a Hold with a $12.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Xponential Fitness stock, see the XPOF Stock Forecast page.