Xponential Fitness (XPOF) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $401.27M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 671.37K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.71
• Revenue Growth: -3.55%
• EPS Growth: -111.90%
• Country: US
• Employees: 288
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Leisure
• EPS (TTM): 0.34
• Shares Outstanding: 35,169,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 640,663
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 671,367
• PEG Ratio: 0.02
• Price to Book (P/B): -1.99
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.34
• P/FCF Ratio: 61.80
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.55
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.97
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.75
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 8.41
• 1Y Price Target: $10.75
• Price Target Upside: 31.26% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 52 Neutral
• Price Target: $9.00 ▲(9.89% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/03/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/03/26

Overall score is held back primarily by weak financial performance and balance-sheet leverage (negative equity) despite improving cash flow. Technicals are constructive and earnings-call commentary showed EBITDA growth and maintained guidance, but revenue/same-store softness and delinquent licenses keep execution risk elevated, while valuation is constrained by ongoing losses.

Positive Factors

Very high gross margins

Sustained gross margins above 80% reflect a high-margin franchisor model with low direct studio operating costs. This structural profitability on revenue provides durable operating leverage as systemwide sales and royalties scale, supporting reinvestment and margin retention over time.

Improving cash generation

Improving free cash flow and a rising operating-cash-to-net-income ratio indicate the franchise business is converting sales into cash more effectively. Stronger cash generation reduces reliance on external financing and supports franchisor investments, working capital and debt service over the medium term.

Large development backlog & system growth

A sizable franchise backlog (1,000+ NA, 700 international) plus 10% North America systemwide sales growth signals a durable pipeline for royalty and initial-fee revenue. This long lead franchise funnel supports multi-quarter expansion of recurring revenues as new studios mature.

Negative Factors

Negative stockholders' equity / leverage

Negative equity and a negative debt-to-equity ratio reflect elevated financial leverage and structural capital strain. This limits balance-sheet flexibility, raises refinancing risk, and can constrain investment or franchisor support when studios need capital over the next several quarters.

Ongoing losses and inconsistent revenue

Despite high gross margins, persistent net losses and a trailing twelve-month revenue decline show operating leverage is not yet converting to sustainable profitability. Continued negative margins increase dependence on cash/capital and keep long-term earnings recovery conditional on execution.

High share of delinquent franchise licenses

Roughly 40% of licenses materially delayed signals structural execution risk in new unit openings and royalty ramp timing. Delays reduce expected near-term recurring fees, pressure same-store sales metrics, and can erode franchisee confidence, impairing network growth for months to come.

Xponential Fitness Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Xponential Fitness, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a boutique fitness franchisor in the United States and internationally. The company offers fitness and wellness services, including pilates, barre, cycling, stretching, rowing, yoga, boxing, dancing, running, and functional training under the Club Pilates, Pure Barre, CycleBar, StretchLab, Row House, YogaSix, Rumble, AKT, Stride, and BFT brands. As of December 31, 2021, it had 1,556 franchisees operating 1,954 open studios on an adjusted basis. The company was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Irvine, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Xponential Fitness generates revenue primarily through franchise fees and royalties from its network of franchisees. The company earns initial franchise fees when new franchises are established, as well as ongoing royalty fees based on the franchisee's revenue. Additionally, Xponential benefits from retail sales of fitness-related products and memberships at its locations. The company has also entered partnerships with various brands and technology providers to enhance its offerings, thereby increasing revenue opportunities. The scale of its franchise model allows Xponential to capitalize on the growing demand for boutique fitness experiences, further driving its earnings potential.

Xponential Fitness Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mixed fundamentals: very strong gross margins (80%+), but persistent losses (negative net margin) and inconsistent revenue including a TTM decline. Balance sheet risk is elevated with negative stockholders’ equity (negative debt-to-equity, negative equity ratio). Cash flow is improving with stronger free cash flow growth and better operating cash flow vs. net income, but not yet strong enough to fully offset losses.

Income Statement

Xponential Fitness shows a mixed performance in its income statement. The company has a strong gross profit margin, consistently above 80% in recent periods, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin is negative, reflecting ongoing losses. Revenue growth has been inconsistent, with a significant decline in the TTM period. The negative EBIT and EBITDA margins further highlight operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals significant financial leverage, with a negative debt-to-equity ratio due to negative stockholders' equity. This indicates potential financial instability. Although the return on equity is positive, it is driven by negative equity, which is not sustainable. The equity ratio is also negative, suggesting high reliance on debt financing.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows some positive trends, with a notable increase in free cash flow growth in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is improving, indicating better cash generation relative to net income. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio suggests that cash flow is not yet sufficient to cover losses fully.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	315.73M	320.35M	317.94M	243.20M	155.08M	106.59M
Gross Profit	226.50M	260.87M	219.32M	161.01M	100.77M	65.37M
EBITDA	74.09M	-35.08M	70.79M	45.03M	12.79M	6.88M
Net Income	-48.97M	-64.95M	-4.00M	1.22M	-18.83M	-13.64M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	355.30M	403.40M	528.70M	482.69M	415.54M	322.84M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	41.46M	16.68M	27.76M	31.99M	21.32M	11.30M
Total Debt	375.06M	379.62M	406.62M	170.44M	131.93M	182.77M
Total Liabilities	559.00M	714.21M	616.83M	690.75M	626.01M	318.09M
Stockholders Equity	-113.56M	-216.57M	-10.59M	-154.78M	-654.43M	4.75M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	14.63M	6.96M	23.50M	35.93M	9.59M	-3.62M
Operating Cash Flow	18.40M	11.68M	32.71M	52.06M	14.45M	-728.00K
Investing Cash Flow	-2.51M	-14.15M	-11.69M	-14.61M	-50.63M	-4.60M
Financing Cash Flow	-12.20M	-1.88M	-21.30M	-21.40M	46.20M	7.29M

Xponential Fitness Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 8.19
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For XPOF, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 8.19 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.26, above the 50-day MA of 8.14, and below the 200-day MA of 8.22, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.07 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.46 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 37.68 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for XPOF.

Xponential Fitness Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
YETI	67 Neutral	$3.54B	22.32	23.79%	―	1.56%	-17.21%
LTH	65 Neutral	$6.14B	21.72	10.38%	―	15.77%	86.16%
PLNT	63 Neutral	$6.88B	31.56	―	―	14.39%	31.64%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
XPOF	52 Neutral	$401.27M	-5.00	―	―	-3.55%	-111.90%
PTON	52 Neutral	$1.72B	-31.64	―	―	-8.74%	74.66%

Xponential Fitness Corporate Events

Xponential Fitness Announces New Credit Agreement

On December 8, 2025, Xponential Fitness, Inc. announced the refinancing of its existing debt through a new credit agreement, which includes a five-year term loan facility of $525 million and a revolving credit facility of $25 million. This refinancing allows the company to decrease interest payments and repurchase all outstanding convertible preferred equity, eliminating approximately 8.2 million shares of common stock. The proceeds from the term loan will be used to refinance the existing credit facility, repurchase convertible preferred stock, and cover associated fees and expenses. The revolving credit facility will support working capital and general corporate purposes. This strategic financial move positions Xponential Fitness to better support its priorities and create long-term value for shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (XPOF) stock is a Hold with a $7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Xponential Fitness stock, see the XPOF Stock Forecast page.

Xponential Fitness Appoints New Chief Legal Officer

On November 12, 2025, Xponential Fitness announced the appointment of Gavin M. O’Connor as its Chief Legal Officer & Administrative Officer, effective November 14, 2025, following the departure of Andrew Hagopian on November 10, 2025. O’Connor, who brings extensive experience in franchising and corporate governance from his previous roles at European Wax Center and American Eagle Outfitters, is expected to support Xponential Fitness’s growth and governance framework. This leadership change is anticipated to strengthen the company’s compliance framework and support its next phase of growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (XPOF) stock is a Buy with a $12.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Xponential Fitness stock, see the XPOF Stock Forecast page.