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Xponential Fitness
(NYSE:XPOF)
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Rating:44Neutral
Price Target:
$6.50
▼(-9.60% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/27/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (declining revenue, losses, deteriorating TTM cash flow, and persistently negative equity). Technicals add caution with a clear downtrend (price below key moving averages and negative MACD). The earnings call provides some support via reaffirmed 2026 guidance and execution initiatives, but near-term results and liquidity/legal headwinds remain significant. Valuation is not a clear positive due to loss-making earnings and no dividend.
Positive Factors
High unit economics / gross margins
Very high TTM gross margins (~83%) indicate durable unit-level economics from franchise and equipment sales. Strong gross margin provides structural buffer to absorb marketing or support investments while franchised studios scale, preserving long-term margin potential if operating costs are controlled.
Negative Factors
Stressed capital structure / negative equity
Persistently negative stockholders' equity and a volatile debt profile constrain financial flexibility and increase refinancing risk. Negative equity can impair covenant room and limit strategic investments or bolt-on support to franchisees, elevating structural financial vulnerability over months.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High unit economics / gross margins
Very high TTM gross margins (~83%) indicate durable unit-level economics from franchise and equipment sales. Strong gross margin provides structural buffer to absorb marketing or support investments while franchised studios scale, preserving long-term margin potential if operating costs are controlled.
Read all positive factors
Xponential Fitness Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Highlights earnings from different business segments, revealing which areas are driving growth and profitability for Xponential Fitness. This breakdown helps assess the company's diversification and potential vulnerabilities or strengths in specific market segments.
Highlights earnings from different business segments, revealing which areas are driving growth and profitability for Xponential Fitness. This breakdown helps assess the company's diversification and potential vulnerabilities or strengths in specific market segments.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyXponential Fitness (XPOF) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$301.47M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)671.37K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.45
Revenue Growth-5.80%
EPS Growth32.11%
CountryUS
Employees288
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryLeisure
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.38
Shares Outstanding37,312,000
10 Day Avg. Volume640,663
30 Day Avg. Volume671,367
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.16
Price to Book (P/B)-1.06
Price to Sales (P/S)0.91
P/FCF Ratio11.58
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.48
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.51
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.13
Enterprise Value/Ebitda59.26
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$6.80Price Target Upside-5.42% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)0.46
Revenue Forecast (FY)$263.68M
Xponential Fitness Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Xponential Fitness, Inc. serves as a leading franchisor in the boutique fitness and wellness sector, conducting operations across the United States and internationally through its various subsidiaries. The company offers a wide range of health and...
How the Company Makes Money
Xponential Fitness primarily makes money through a franchise-based model across its portfolio of boutique fitness brands. Key revenue streams include: (1) Franchise fees: upfront fees paid by franchisees (and/or area developers) for the right to o...
Xponential Fitness Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a balanced picture: strong operational initiatives, leadership additions, a healthy studio development pipeline, and improving retention and early marketing/CRM traction are positive. However, material near-term financial headwinds — including a 21% decline in consolidated revenue, a 25% drop in Adjusted EBITDA, a ~6% same-store sales decline, reduced cash balances, legal settlement outflows, and digital/lead-generation disruptions driven by platform changes — temper the outlook. Management reaffirmed 2026 guidance and outlined concrete remediation steps, leaving the outlook contingent on execution of marketing, digital experience, and conversion improvements.Positive Updates
Reaffirmed 2026 Guidance
Management reaffirmed full-year 2026 guidance: global net studio openings of 150–170; North America system-wide sales $1.72B–$1.80B; total revenue $260M–$270M; Adjusted EBITDA $100M–$110M (midpoint implies ~39.6% Adjusted EBITDA margin).
Negative Updates
Same-Store Sales Weakness
Q1 same-store studio sales declined approximately 6% overall (CEO said -6%; CFO reported same-store sales -6.2% pro forma). Club Pilates comps were down ~4% in Q1 (CEO comment) and faced a tougher year-over-year comparison to Q1 2025 (which had been stronger).
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Reaffirmed 2026 Guidance
Management reaffirmed full-year 2026 guidance: global net studio openings of 150–170; North America system-wide sales $1.72B–$1.80B; total revenue $260M–$270M; Adjusted EBITDA $100M–$110M (midpoint implies ~39.6% Adjusted EBITDA margin).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Xponential reaffirmed 2026 guidance calling for 150–170 net studios open (net of closures) with closures of 3%–5% of the global system, North America system-wide sales of $1.72B–$1.80B, total revenue of $260M–$270M and Adjusted EBITDA of $100M–$110M (39.6% margin at the midpoint). For context, Q1 closed with 3,137 global studios after 66 gross openings (43 North America, 23 international) and 26 closures, North America system-wide sales of $437M (+2% YoY) with same-store sales down 6.2%, consolidated revenue of $60.7M (-21% YoY), Adjusted EBITDA of $20.4M (-25%, 34% margin), cash and equivalents of $21.5M, total long-term debt of $523.7M, ~780 North America license obligations and ~750 international master franchise obligations.Xponential Fitness Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
38
Negative
Balance Sheet
22
Negative
Cash Flow
44
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 298.71M | 314.88M | 320.35M | 317.94M | 243.20M | 155.08M |
| Gross Profit | 238.74M | 238.10M | 260.87M | 219.32M | 161.01M | 100.77M |
| EBITDA | 12.63M | 8.87M | -35.08M | 70.79M | 45.03M | 12.79M |
| Net Income | -33.16M | -33.79M | -64.95M | -4.00M | 1.22M | -18.83M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 322.40M | 345.63M | 403.40M | 528.70M | 482.69M | 415.54M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 21.47M | 33.67M | 16.68M | 27.76M | 31.99M | 21.32M |
| Total Debt | 522.82M | 524.69M | 379.62M | 406.62M | 170.44M | 131.93M |
| Total Liabilities | 694.38M | 717.59M | 714.21M | 616.83M | 690.75M | 626.01M |
| Stockholders Equity | -316.32M | -269.08M | -216.57M | -10.59M | -154.78M | -654.43M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -3.19M | 24.74M | 6.96M | 23.50M | 35.93M | 9.59M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 811.00K | 28.32M | 11.68M | 32.71M | 52.06M | 14.45M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 1.90M | 1.53M | -14.15M | -11.69M | -14.61M | -50.63M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -23.82M | -16.72M | -1.88M | -21.30M | -21.40M | 46.20M |
Xponential Fitness Technical Analysis
Positive
7.19
Price Trends
6.13
Positive
6.44
Positive
6.95
Negative
Market Momentum
0.29
Negative
56.94
Neutral
63.16
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For XPOF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 7.19 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.51, above the 50-day MA of 6.13, and above the 200-day MA of 6.95, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.29 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.94 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 63.16 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for XPOF.
Xponential Fitness Risk Analysis
Xponential Fitness disclosed 68 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Xponential Fitness reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Xponential Fitness Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $9.08B | 23.19 | 12.64% | ― | 12.73% | 73.50% | |
71 Outperform | $3.76B | 24.85 | 22.54% | ― | 3.16% | -4.60% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
61 Neutral | $2.49B | 101.23 | -6.18% | ― | -3.26% | ― | |
60 Neutral | $4.25B | 19.30 | -69.35% | ― | 14.41% | 31.33% | |
44 Neutral | $301.47M | -4.91 | 14.36% | ― | -5.80% | 32.11% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
XPOF
Xponential Fitness
6.78
-2.65
-28.10%
PLNT
Planet Fitness
53.45
-54.30
-50.39%
YETI
Yeti Holdings
49.69
16.94
51.73%
PTON
Peloton Interactive
5.75
-0.89
-13.40%
LTH
Life Time Group Holdings
40.81
11.61
39.76%
Xponential Fitness Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Xponential Fitness Shareholders Elect Directors, Ratify Auditor
Positive
May 26, 2026
At its annual meeting of stockholders held on May 20, 2026, Xponential Fitness, Inc. reported that shareholders elected two Class II director nominees, Rachel H. Lee and Lily Yang, to the board of directors. The voting results showed strong suppor...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Xponential Fitness Names New President, Updates Executive Compensation
Positive
May 18, 2026
On May 18, 2026, Xponential Fitness announced the appointment of Danielle Porto Parra as president, bringing in a veteran executive with more than two decades of experience in franchised and company-operated consumer brands, including leadership r...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Xponential Fitness COO Departure Signals Leadership Transition
Negative
May 14, 2026
On May 13, 2026, Xponential Fitness, Inc. announced that its Chief Operating Officer, Timothy Weiderhoft, separated from the company, marking a change in the senior leadership team. The departure may signal an operational transition period for Xpo...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Xponential Fitness Launches Strategic Alternatives Review Amid Board Shift
Neutral
Apr 7, 2026
On April 6, 2026, Xponential Fitness announced that its board has initiated a review of strategic alternatives aimed at maximizing shareholder value. The process, led by the independent directors with Jefferies LLC as financial adviser, will explo...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.