Xponential Fitness (XPOF) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $421.61M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 861.19K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.69
• Revenue Growth: -3.02%
• EPS Growth: -517.53%
• Country: US
• Employees: 288
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 79
• Industry: Leisure
• EPS (TTM): 0.26
• Shares Outstanding: 35,097,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 799,389
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 861,187
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.52
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.02
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.69
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -18.71
• 1Y Price Target: $12.64
• Price Target Upside: 51.38% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7

• Rating: 52 Neutral
• Price Target: $8.50 ▲(1.80% Upside)

Xponential Fitness's overall stock score reflects significant financial challenges, particularly in profitability and balance sheet strength, which are the most impactful factors. While there are positive developments in corporate governance and strategic partnerships, the valuation remains unattractive due to ongoing losses. The technical indicators suggest a neutral to bearish outlook, and the earnings call highlights both growth opportunities and operational challenges.

Positive Factors

Investor Sentiment

A 25% after-hours rally occurred, contrasting with a flat S&P 500, indicating positive investor sentiment.

Management and Leadership

The assembly of a high-caliber leadership team positions Xponential Fitness to execute with greater precision and long-term discipline.

Valuation

Applying a 15x multiple to the dominant Club Pilates business could result in an equity value above $1 billion, or $22, more than 2x the current price.

Negative Factors

Development Outlook

Disappointing development outlook as closures remain elevated, with anticipated gross openings lower than expected and closures higher than anticipated.

Financial Guidance

Revenue and EBITDA guidance for 2025 came in lower than expected, reflecting the company’s efforts to improve franchisee performance and address legacy issues.

Performance of Specific Brands

StretchLab's performance is concerning, with AUVs declining and comp performance negative for 2024, contributing to elevated closures.

Xponential Fitness Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Xponential Fitness, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a boutique fitness franchisor in the United States and internationally. The company offers fitness and wellness services, including pilates, barre, cycling, stretching, rowing, yoga, boxing, dancing, running, and functional training under the Club Pilates, Pure Barre, CycleBar, StretchLab, Row House, YogaSix, Rumble, AKT, Stride, and BFT brands. As of December 31, 2021, it had 1,556 franchisees operating 1,954 open studios on an adjusted basis. The company was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Irvine, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Xponential Fitness generates revenue primarily through its franchise business model. The company licenses its boutique fitness brands to franchisees, who in turn operate individual fitness studios under the respective brand names. Revenue streams include initial franchise fees, ongoing royalties based on a percentage of studio sales, and equipment and product sales to franchisees. Additionally, Xponential Fitness benefits from partnerships with third-party vendors and suppliers, offering branded merchandise and fitness equipment. These partnerships and the focus on expanding the franchise network contribute significantly to the company's overall earnings.

Xponential Fitness Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Xponential Fitness faces significant financial challenges, particularly in profitability and balance sheet strength. The negative net profit margin and high leverage are concerning, although positive cash flow management offers some mitigation.

Income Statement

Xponential Fitness shows a mixed income statement profile. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross profit margin is a healthy 74.96%, indicating strong cost management. However, the net profit margin is negative at -21.75%, reflecting ongoing profitability challenges. The revenue growth rate has been inconsistent, with a decline in the most recent TTM period. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also negative, which highlights struggles with operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals significant leverage, with a negative stockholders' equity of -$225.2 million indicating potential financial distress. The debt-to-equity ratio is not meaningful due to negative equity. The return on equity is also negative, further reflecting profitability challenges. The equity ratio is negative, underscoring a precarious financial position.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows some positive aspects, with a TTM free cash flow of $10.48 million. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is positive, suggesting better cash conversion despite net losses. However, the free cash flow growth rate is positive recently, indicating improvements in cash efficiency. The positive operating cash flow is a mitigating factor in an otherwise challenging financial scenario.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	317.11M	320.35M	318.66M	243.20M	155.08M	106.59M
Gross Profit	237.72M	260.87M	222.09M	161.01M	100.77M	65.37M
EBITDA	-34.23M	-35.08M	67.98M	34.39M	-15.78M	6.88M
Net Income	-68.99M	-64.95M	-17.48M	1.22M	26.98M	-13.64M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	412.45M	403.40M	528.70M	482.69M	415.54M	322.84M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	26.58M	32.74M	27.76M	37.37M	21.32M	11.30M
Total Debt	388.64M	379.62M	406.62M	170.44M	131.93M	182.77M
Total Liabilities	726.16M	597.40M	616.83M	690.75M	626.01M	318.09M
Stockholders Equity	-225.20M	-99.76M	-10.59M	153.30M	-654.43M	4.75M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	10.48M	6.96M	26.05M	35.54M	9.59M	-3.62M
Operating Cash Flow	15.07M	11.68M	35.42M	51.67M	14.45M	-728.00K
Investing Cash Flow	-5.94M	-14.15M	-12.59M	-14.61M	-50.63M	-4.60M
Financing Cash Flow	6.22M	-1.88M	-23.11M	-21.01M	46.20M	7.29M

Xponential Fitness Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 8.35
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For XPOF, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 8.35 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.89, below the 50-day MA of 9.28, and below the 200-day MA of 11.42, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.30 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.49 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 21.41 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for XPOF.

Xponential Fitness Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
YETI	68 Neutral	$2.91B	17.07	23.49%	―	3.63%	-2.60%
LTH	68 Neutral	$6.20B	27.58	8.66%	―	17.25%	93.88%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$17.78B	13.97	-5.49%	3.03%	1.50%	-15.71%
MODG	57 Neutral	$1.82B	―	-46.53%	―	-2.35%	-7104.57%
PLNT	55 Neutral	$8.89B	47.19	-79.88%	―	12.47%	22.74%
XPOF	52 Neutral	$421.61M	―	22.27%	―	-3.02%	-517.53%
PTON	50 Neutral	$3.09B	―	58.47%	―	-7.76%	79.66%

Xponential Fitness Corporate Events

Xponential Fitness Appoints Rachel Lee to Board

On August 25, 2025, Xponential Fitness, Inc. announced the appointment of Rachel Lee to its Board of Directors, expanding the board from six to seven members. Rachel Lee, who brings nearly two decades of financial and private equity experience, will also serve on the Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee. Her appointment is expected to enhance Xponential’s corporate governance and contribute strategic insights as the company advances its long-term growth strategy in the boutique health and wellness industry.

Xponential Fitness Appoints Mike Nuzzo as New CEO

On August 7, 2025, Xponential Fitness announced the appointment of Mike Nuzzo as the new Chief Executive Officer, succeeding Mark King. Nuzzo brings extensive experience from leading consumer retail and service businesses, including his recent role as CEO of Eyemart Express. His leadership is expected to drive Xponential’s growth and expand its market footprint, leveraging his proven track record in operational excellence and strategic leadership.

Xponential Fitness Divests CycleBar and Rumble Brands

On July 28, 2025, Xponential Fitness announced the divestiture of its CycleBar and Rumble brands to Extraordinary Brands, LLC. This strategic move aligns with Xponential’s focus on prioritizing brands that enhance profitability and improve franchisee operations, growth, and member experience. The company will collaborate with Extraordinary Brands to ensure a smooth transition for CycleBar and Rumble franchisees, with Houlihan Lokey acting as the financial advisor for the transaction. The terms of the deal were not disclosed.

Xponential Fitness Signs Retail Supply Agreement

On July 3, 2025, Xponential Fitness LLC and Fit Commerce entered into a Retail Supply Agreement effective December 1, 2025, to manage the retail merchandising of Xponential’s franchisees in the U.S. and Canada. The agreement designates Fit Commerce as the exclusive manufacturer and distributor of Xponential’s retail products, with Thirty Three Threads as the exclusive sock vendor. Fit Commerce will provide various services, including product design, inventory management, and marketing, and will pay Xponential commissions totaling at least $50 million over five years. The agreement will be void if certain financial conditions are not met by October 31, 2025.

Xponential Fitness SEC Investigation Concludes Without Action

Xponential Fitness Inc. announced that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) concluded its investigation without taking any action. The investigation, which lasted 18 months, involved the company providing certain documents to the SEC, and its conclusion without action is a positive outcome for the company.

Xponential Fitness Appoints Lily Yang to Board

On June 16, 2025, Xponential Fitness appointed Lily Yang to its Board of Directors and as Chair of the Audit Committee. Yang, with nearly 30 years of experience in finance and accounting roles across technology and healthcare industries, brings significant expertise to the board. Her previous roles include Chief Financial Officer at Strava and Chief Accounting Officer at Pinterest, where she played a key role in the company’s IPO in 2019. This appointment is expected to enhance Xponential’s strategic initiatives and growth strategy, aligning with the company’s mission to support franchise growth and success.

Xponential Fitness Unveils Strategic Initiatives and Growth Plans

On May 29, 2025, Xponential Fitness released an investor presentation detailing its strategic initiatives and financial performance. The presentation highlighted the company’s focus on optimizing its capital structure and growth strategies, aiming to enhance its competitive position in the boutique fitness industry. The company is moving away from company-owned transition studios and anticipates opening new studios, which is expected to impact its profitability and market presence.