Xponential Fitness (XPOF)
NYSE:XPOF
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Xponential Fitness
(NYSE:XPOF)
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Rating:47Neutral
Price Target:
$6.50
▼(-10.34% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/11/26
The score is primarily held back by weak financial quality (revenue decline, recurring losses, negative equity) and bearish technicals (below major moving averages with negative MACD). Cash-flow momentum and operational actions discussed on the earnings call provide partial support, but conservative 2026 guidance and elevated interest/one-time items keep the outlook constrained.
Positive Factors
Consistent cash generation
Sustained positive operating cash flow and materially stronger free cash flow in 2025 indicate the franchisor generates reliable cash from operations. This durable cash conversion supports reinvestment in marketing, field ops and digital upgrades, funds capex (guidance ~3% of revenue) and provides runway to address losses without near-term equity raises.
Negative Factors
Negative stockholders' equity
A persistent negative equity position constrains financial flexibility, raises lender and covenant sensitivity, and can hinder access to cheaper capital. Over the medium term this structural weakness increases refinancing and restructuring risk and limits the firm's ability to pursue opportunistic M&A or capital-intensive growth without external solutions.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Consistent cash generation
Sustained positive operating cash flow and materially stronger free cash flow in 2025 indicate the franchisor generates reliable cash from operations. This durable cash conversion supports reinvestment in marketing, field ops and digital upgrades, funds capex (guidance ~3% of revenue) and provides runway to address losses without near-term equity raises.
Read all positive factors
Xponential Fitness (XPOF) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$355.07M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)671.37K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.58
Revenue Growth-3.55%
EPS Growth-111.90%
CountryUS
Employees288
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryLeisure
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.91
Shares Outstanding37,312,000
10 Day Avg. Volume640,663
30 Day Avg. Volume671,367
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.24
Price to Book (P/B)-1.06
Price to Sales (P/S)0.91
P/FCF Ratio11.58
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.09
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.35
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.05
Enterprise Value/Ebitda38.41
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$7.69Price Target Upside6.07% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)0.62
Revenue Forecast (FY)$265.28M
Xponential Fitness Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Xponential Fitness, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a boutique fitness franchisor in the United States and internationally. The company offers fitness and wellness services, including pilates, barre, cycling, stretching, rowing, yoga, ...
How the Company Makes Money
Xponential Fitness primarily makes money through franchising its boutique fitness brands. Key revenue streams generally include: (1) franchise-related fees, such as initial franchise fees paid when a franchisee signs an agreement to open a studio;...
Xponential Fitness Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Highlights earnings from different business segments, revealing which areas are driving growth and profitability for Xponential Fitness. This breakdown helps assess the company's diversification and potential vulnerabilities or strengths in specific market segments.
Highlights earnings from different business segments, revealing which areas are driving growth and profitability for Xponential Fitness. This breakdown helps assess the company's diversification and potential vulnerabilities or strengths in specific market segments.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyXponential Fitness Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a balanced picture: strong franchisor scale and system‑wide sales growth (driven by Club Pilates and unit expansion), meaningful operational actions (outsourced retail, refinancing, field team, digital and pricing initiatives) and positive brand training metrics. However, near‑term pressures persist — Q4 same‑store softness, Q4 margin compression, underperformance at StretchLab and other brands, a meaningful portion of inactive license obligations, one‑time legal and lease costs, and higher leverage. Management emphasized deliberate, investment‑led steps to fix top‑of‑funnel issues and improve organic studio revenue, while providing conservative 2026 guidance that reflects these tradeoffs.Positive Updates
Net Studio Growth and Scale
Opened 201 net new studios in 2025 (341 gross openings, 140 closures), ending the year with 3,097 global open studios; Club Pilates led openings (220 gross) and represented the majority of licensing activity (140 licenses, ~78% of 179 licenses sold).
Negative Updates
Quarterly Same‑Store Sales Pressure
North America same‑store sales were negative 4.3% in Q4; Company cited top‑of‑funnel lead generation and marketing missteps that pressured same‑store sales, most visible in Club Pilates (Club Pilates Q4 comp down ~3% though full year +3%).
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Net Studio Growth and Scale
Opened 201 net new studios in 2025 (341 gross openings, 140 closures), ending the year with 3,097 global open studios; Club Pilates led openings (220 gross) and represented the majority of licensing activity (140 licenses, ~78% of 179 licenses sold).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For 2026 Xponential guided to 150–170 global net new studio openings (net of closures, ~20% decline at the midpoint vs. prior year pro forma), with closures running 3%–5% of the global system (targeting low single digits longer term); North America system‑wide sales of $1.72–$1.80 billion (~+1% at the midpoint); total revenue of $260–$270 million (≈‑16% YoY at the midpoint, including ~‑$23.1M from 2025 divested brands and ~‑$18M from the outsourced merchandise shift); adjusted EBITDA of $100–$110 million (≈‑6% YoY at the midpoint, implying ~40% adjusted EBITDA margin); SG&A of $108–$113M (or $97–$102M excluding one‑time lease/legal items and $85–$90M further excluding stock‑based costs); capex of $6–$10M (~3% of revenue); a mid‑to‑high single‑digit tax rate; share count ~37.3M; ~90% unlevered free‑cash‑flow conversion of adjusted EBITDA; expected interest expense of ~$55M and tax cash usage of ~$4M (including TRA/distributions), yielding a levered adjusted EBITDA cash‑flow conversion of ~35% at the midpoint.Xponential Fitness Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
42
Neutral
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
67
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 314.88M | 320.35M | 317.94M | 243.20M | 155.08M |
| Gross Profit | 238.10M | 260.87M | 219.32M | 161.01M | 100.77M |
| EBITDA | 8.87M | -35.08M | 70.79M | 45.03M | 12.79M |
| Net Income | -33.79M | -64.95M | -4.00M | 1.22M | -18.83M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 345.63M | 403.40M | 528.70M | 482.69M | 415.54M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 45.86M | 16.68M | 27.76M | 31.99M | 21.32M |
| Total Debt | 524.69M | 379.62M | 406.62M | 170.44M | 131.93M |
| Total Liabilities | 717.59M | 714.21M | 616.83M | 690.75M | 626.01M |
| Stockholders Equity | -269.08M | -216.57M | -10.59M | -154.78M | -654.43M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 24.74M | 6.96M | 23.50M | 35.93M | 9.59M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 28.32M | 11.68M | 32.71M | 52.06M | 14.45M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 1.53M | -14.15M | -11.69M | -14.61M | -50.63M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -16.72M | -1.88M | -21.30M | -21.40M | 46.20M |
Xponential Fitness Technical Analysis
Positive
7.25
Price Trends
6.93
Positive
7.17
Positive
7.80
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.01
Negative
66.16
Neutral
89.61
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For XPOF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 7.25 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.98, above the 50-day MA of 6.93, and below the 200-day MA of 7.80, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.16 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.61 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for XPOF.
Xponential Fitness Risk Analysis
Xponential Fitness disclosed 66 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Xponential Fitness reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Xponential Fitness Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | $2.73B | 21.84 | 22.66% | ― | 1.56% | -17.21% | |
65 Neutral | $6.25B | 15.51 | 12.76% | ― | 15.77% | 86.16% | |
62 Neutral | $5.94B | 41.35 | -82.94% | ― | 14.39% | 31.64% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
53 Neutral | $2.05B | -16.60 | 12.90% | ― | -8.74% | 74.66% | |
47 Neutral | $355.07M | -2.45 | ― | ― | -3.55% | -111.90% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
XPOF
Xponential Fitness
7.25
0.10
1.40%
PLNT
Planet Fitness
74.24
-16.34
-18.04%
YETI
Yeti Holdings
36.27
9.13
33.64%
PTON
Peloton Interactive
4.81
-0.19
-3.80%
LTH
Life Time Group Holdings
28.20
0.47
1.69%
Xponential Fitness Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Xponential Fitness Launches Strategic Alternatives Review Amid Board Shift
Neutral
Apr 7, 2026
On April 6, 2026, Xponential Fitness announced that its board has initiated a review of strategic alternatives aimed at maximizing shareholder value. The process, led by the independent directors with Jefferies LLC as financial adviser, will explo...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial Disclosures
Xponential Fitness Names Interim CFO, Reaffirms 2026 Outlook
Positive
Mar 11, 2026
On March 10, 2026, Xponential Fitness announced that Chief Financial Officer John Meloun separated from the company effective March 9, 2026, after eight years in the role, and will receive benefits in line with his employment agreement. The compan...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.