Peloton Interactive (PTON)
NASDAQ:PTON
Top Page
Peloton Interactive
(NASDAQ:PTON)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:53Neutral
Price Target:
$4.50
▼(-5.06% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/01/26
The score is driven primarily by improving profitability and strong positive cash generation (a meaningful turnaround), but is held back by ongoing revenue/subscriber declines and a weak balance sheet with negative equity. Technicals remain soft and valuation lacks support due to negative earnings.
Positive Factors
Cash generation turned positive
Peloton’s shift to materially positive operating and free cash flow provides durable internal funding for operations, product refreshes, and debt paydown. Persistent positive cash generation reduces reliance on capital markets and supports continued deleveraging, investment in content, and run-rate stability.
Negative Factors
Negative shareholder equity
Persistent negative shareholders’ equity signals accumulated losses and constrains financial flexibility, increasing creditor and covenant sensitivity. Even with improving cash flow, negative equity limits strategic optionality, heightens default perception in downturns, and can complicate capital-raising or M&A over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation turned positive
Peloton’s shift to materially positive operating and free cash flow provides durable internal funding for operations, product refreshes, and debt paydown. Persistent positive cash generation reduces reliance on capital markets and supports continued deleveraging, investment in content, and run-rate stability.
Read all positive factors
Peloton Interactive (PTON) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.02B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)12.81M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.24
Revenue Growth-8.74%
EPS Growth74.66%
CountryUS
Employees2,853
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryLeisure
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.09
Shares Outstanding409,652,370
10 Day Avg. Volume17,198,794
30 Day Avg. Volume12,806,034
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.28
Price to Book (P/B)-6.54
Price to Sales (P/S)1.09
P/FCF Ratio8.36
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.53
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.27
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.45
Enterprise Value/Ebitda18.32
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$7.10Price Target Upside49.79% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering13
EPS Forecast (FY)0.15
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.43B
Peloton Interactive Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Peloton Interactive, Inc. provides interactive fitness products in North America and internationally. It offers connected fitness products with touchscreen that streams live and on-demand classes under the Peloton Bike, Peloton Bike+, Peloton Trea...
How the Company Makes Money
Peloton primarily makes money through two revenue streams: (1) Connected Fitness Products and (2) Subscription revenue. Connected Fitness Products revenue comes from selling its branded connected hardware (e.g., Bike/Bike+, Tread, Row) and related...
Peloton Interactive Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Connected Fitness Subscribers
Tracks the number of subscribers to Peloton's fitness services, indicating customer base growth and recurring revenue potential.
Tracks the number of subscribers to Peloton's fitness services, indicating customer base growth and recurring revenue potential.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyPeloton Interactive Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlights substantial progress on profitability, margins, deleveraging, and cash generation — evidenced by a 39% YoY increase in adjusted EBITDA, meaningful margin expansion, a 52% reduction in net debt, raised EBITDA and free cash flow targets, and encouraging product and engagement signals (Peloton IQ adoption, cross-training launch, commercial growth). However, revenue and subscriber growth remain challenged in the near term: equipment sales to existing members missed expectations, ending subscriptions were down 7% YoY, delivery delays and third-party retail softness impacted results, and full-year revenue guidance implies a modest decline. On balance, the company shows a strong financial and operational recovery trajectory while still working to reaccelerate top-line growth.Positive Updates
Improved Profitability and Margin Expansion
Adjusted EBITDA of $81M in Q2, up $23M or 39% year over year and $6M above the high end of guidance. Q2 total gross margin of 50.5%, up 320 basis points year over year and 150 basis points above guidance; raising full-year gross margin guidance to ~53% (up 100 bps from prior guidance and +210 bps YoY).
Negative Updates
Revenue Miss and Guidance Reduction
Q2 total revenue came in $8M below guidance. Full-year FY26 revenue guidance reduced by $30M to $2.40B–$2.44B, implying a 3% year-over-year decline at the midpoint.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Improved Profitability and Margin Expansion
Adjusted EBITDA of $81M in Q2, up $23M or 39% year over year and $6M above the high end of guidance. Q2 total gross margin of 50.5%, up 320 basis points year over year and 150 basis points above guidance; raising full-year gross margin guidance to ~53% (up 100 bps from prior guidance and +210 bps YoY).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Peloton guided fiscal 2026 total revenue of $2.40–$2.44 billion (down $30M from prior guidance; midpoint ≈ −3% YoY) and Q3 revenue of $605–$625 million (Q3 midpoint ≈ −1% YoY, −6% QoQ); it raised full‑year total gross margin to ~53% (+100 bps vs prior; +210 bps YoY) and expects Q3 gross margin of ~54% (+300 bps YoY). Full‑year adjusted EBITDA was raised to $450–$500 million (+$25M vs prior; ~+18% YoY at midpoint) with Q3 adjusted EBITDA of $121–$135 million (≈+43% YoY at midpoint; +57% QoQ). Q3 ending paid Connected Fitness subscriptions are guided to 2.65–2.675 million (≈ −8% YoY at midpoint); net churn is expected to improve (net churn roughly flat YoY for FY) while gross additions are expected to decline. Management raised minimum free cash flow to ≥$275 million (+$25M), assumes a roughly $45 million tariff impact, expects full‑year positive operating income, plans to pay down roughly $200 million of 0% convertibles, and noted a 1% prepayment penalty on the $1.0 billion term loan through May 2026.Peloton Interactive Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
52
Neutral
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.44B | 2.49B | 2.70B | 2.80B | 3.58B | 4.02B |
| Gross Profit | 1.26B | 1.27B | 1.21B | 927.20M | 698.40M | 1.45B |
| EBITDA | 168.70M | 108.60M | -330.40M | -648.80M | -2.62B | -119.60M |
| Net Income | -50.90M | -118.90M | -551.90M | -1.26B | -2.83B | -189.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.16B | 2.13B | 2.19B | 2.77B | 4.03B | 4.49B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.18B | 1.04B | 697.60M | 813.90M | 1.25B | 1.61B |
| Total Debt | 2.33B | 1.98B | 2.08B | 2.36B | 2.37B | 1.51B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.49B | 2.54B | 2.70B | 3.06B | 3.44B | 2.73B |
| Stockholders Equity | -326.70M | -413.70M | -519.20M | -295.20M | 592.90M | 1.75B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 345.40M | 323.70M | -85.80M | -470.00M | -2.36B | -491.90M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 357.60M | 333.00M | -66.10M | -387.60M | -2.02B | -239.70M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -14.40M | -5.10M | 26.80M | -69.90M | 153.30M | -585.10M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -4.90M | 1.70M | -94.40M | 76.80M | 2.02B | 916.80M |
Peloton Interactive Technical Analysis
Positive
4.74
Price Trends
4.35
Positive
5.41
Negative
6.43
Negative
Market Momentum
0.11
Negative
60.43
Neutral
78.23
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PTON, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4.74 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.20, above the 50-day MA of 4.35, and below the 200-day MA of 6.43, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.11 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.43 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 78.23 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PTON.
Peloton Interactive Risk Analysis
Peloton Interactive disclosed 74 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Peloton Interactive reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Peloton Interactive Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
63 Neutral | $20.10B | 13.49 | 34.82% | ― | 8.76% | 3.41% | |
62 Neutral | $5.75B | 41.35 | -82.94% | ― | 14.39% | 31.64% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
53 Neutral | $2.02B | ― | 12.90% | ― | -8.74% | 74.66% | |
51 Neutral | $1.19B | -24.17 | 60.90% | 2.51% | 3.88% | 34.36% | |
47 Neutral | $371.23M | -2.45 | ― | ― | -3.55% | -111.90% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
PTON
Peloton Interactive
4.74
-0.84
-15.05%
LULU
Lululemon Athletica
166.51
-94.52
-36.21%
PLNT
Planet Fitness
72.41
-25.13
-25.76%
LUCK
Lucky Strike Entertainment
8.67
-0.21
-2.34%
XPOF
Xponential Fitness
7.58
0.23
3.13%
Peloton Interactive Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Peloton Names New Content Chief to Drive Member Growth
Positive
Mar 17, 2026
On March 17, 2026, Peloton announced that Chief Content Officer Jen Cotter will step down from her executive role at the close of business on March 31, 2026, moving into a non‑executive advisory position through August 16, 2026 to support a ...
Executive/Board Changes
Peloton Appoints Interim CFO Amid Leadership Transition
Neutral
Mar 12, 2026
Peloton Interactive, Inc. announced on March 11, 2026, that Chief Accounting Officer Saqib Baig will become interim Chief Financial Officer effective March 27, 2026, succeeding CFO Liz Coddington, who will step down the same day to pursue an exter...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial Disclosures
Peloton Reports Improved Profitability as CFO Plans Exit
Neutral
Feb 5, 2026
On February 5, 2026, Peloton announced that Chief Financial Officer Liz Coddington will step down effective March 27, 2026, to pursue an external opportunity, with the company emphasizing that her departure is unrelated to any financial reporting ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.