Peloton Interactive (PTON)
NASDAQ:PTON
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Peloton Interactive
(NASDAQ:PTON)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$6.00
▲(17.65% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score reflects a turnaround with strong free cash flow and improving profitability, supported by a constructive earnings outlook and improving leverage. The primary risk holding the score back is the weakened balance sheet (negative equity and remaining debt) alongside guidance pointing to near-term subscriber pressure and modest revenue decline, while technical momentum is improving but not yet firmly positive on a long-term basis.
Positive Factors
Free Cash Flow Recovery
Peloton has moved from multi-year cash burn to sustained positive operating and free cash flow, providing durable internal funding for content, R&D and commercial expansion. Strong FCF reduces dependence on external financing and supports execution of strategic initiatives over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Weak Balance Sheet
Despite recent cash flow gains, negative equity and material outstanding debt constrain financial flexibility. This structural weakness raises execution risk for product investment or M&A, and increases sensitivity to shocks or slower-than-expected operational recovery over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Free Cash Flow Recovery
Peloton has moved from multi-year cash burn to sustained positive operating and free cash flow, providing durable internal funding for content, R&D and commercial expansion. Strong FCF reduces dependence on external financing and supports execution of strategic initiatives over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Peloton Interactive Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Connected Fitness Subscribers
Tracks the number of subscribers to Peloton's fitness services, indicating customer base growth and recurring revenue potential.
Tracks the number of subscribers to Peloton's fitness services, indicating customer base growth and recurring revenue potential.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyPeloton Interactive (PTON) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.24B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)12.89M
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.1
Beta (1Y)2.12
Revenue Growth-3.26%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees2,853
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryLeisure
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.05
Shares Outstanding417,155,200
10 Day Avg. Volume14,829,243
30 Day Avg. Volume12,888,034
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.28
Price to Book (P/B)-6.54
Price to Sales (P/S)1.09
P/FCF Ratio8.36
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.94
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.86
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.66
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.71
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$7.75Price Target Upside51.96% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)0.15
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.43B
Peloton Interactive Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Peloton Interactive, Inc. provides interactive fitness products in North America and internationally. It offers connected fitness products with touchscreen that streams live and on-demand classes under the Peloton Bike, Peloton Bike+, Peloton Trea...
How the Company Makes Money
Peloton primarily generates revenue from two broad sources: (1) Connected Fitness products (hardware and related accessories) and (2) Subscription revenue (recurring fees for access to fitness content and features). On the product side, Peloton se...
Peloton Interactive Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 20, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed material financial and operational progress: revenue exceeded guidance in Q3, profitability metrics (gross profit, adjusted EBITDA, free cash flow) improved significantly year-over-year, net debt was reduced dramatically and the company announced strategic initiatives (Spotify licensing, Commercial Series, expanded mental-wellbeing and strength focus). Near-term headwinds include expected Q4 subscription declines, promotions that compressed gross margin in Q3, dependence on non-subscriber revenue sources for growth and some channel underperformance. Taken together, the highlights — meaningful profitability gains, stronger balance sheet, clear cost discipline and diversified revenue initiatives — outweigh the near-term subscriber and margin challenges, resulting in a constructive outlook.Positive Updates
Revenue Beat and Positive Year-over-Year Growth
Q3 total revenue of $631 million, which exceeded guidance by $6 million and represented positive year-over-year growth.
Negative Updates
Full-Year Revenue Guidance Implies YoY Decline
Full-year fiscal 2026 total revenue outlook of $2.42 billion to $2.44 billion implies approximately a 2% revenue decrease year-over-year at the midpoint, despite a $10 million midpoint increase vs prior guidance.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Beat and Positive Year-over-Year Growth
Q3 total revenue of $631 million, which exceeded guidance by $6 million and represented positive year-over-year growth.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's guidance for fiscal 2026 called for total revenue of $2.42–$2.44 billion (midpoint about a 2% YoY decline), total gross margin of roughly 52.5% (≈+160 bps YoY, ≈-50 bps vs. prior guidance), adjusted EBITDA of $470–$480 million (midpoint ≈+18% YoY), and full‑year free cash flow of about $350 million; Q4 ending paid Connected Fitness subscriptions are guided to 2.55–2.57 million, with average net monthly paid churn expected to be roughly flat YoY while gross additions decline. Management reaffirmed being on track for at least $100 million of run‑rate cost savings by end FY‑26 and expects positive full‑year operating income and net income for FY‑26. For context, Q3 results included revenue of $631 million (beat by $6M), ending paid subs 2.662M, average net monthly churn 1.2% (improved 7 bps YoY), total gross margin 51.9% (+90 bps YoY), adjusted EBITDA $126M (+41% YoY), FCF $151M (+59% YoY), cash $1.13B, net debt $173M (‑70% YoY), leverage 2.9/0.4, tariff exposure ≈$30M, LTV:CAC ≈2x, and stock‑based comp trending toward ~$200M in FY‑26.Peloton Interactive Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.45B | 2.49B | 2.70B | 2.80B | 3.58B | 4.02B |
| Gross Profit | 1.27B | 1.27B | 1.21B | 927.20M | 698.40M | 1.45B |
| EBITDA | 217.50M | 108.60M | -330.40M | -648.80M | -2.62B | -119.60M |
| Net Income | 23.20M | -118.90M | -551.90M | -1.26B | -2.83B | -189.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.13B | 2.13B | 2.19B | 2.77B | 4.03B | 4.49B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.04B | 1.04B | 697.60M | 813.90M | 1.25B | 1.61B |
| Total Debt | 1.03B | 1.98B | 2.08B | 2.36B | 2.37B | 1.51B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.54B | 2.54B | 2.70B | 3.06B | 3.44B | 2.73B |
| Stockholders Equity | -413.80M | -413.70M | -519.20M | -295.20M | 592.90M | 1.75B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 401.40M | 323.70M | -85.80M | -470.00M | -2.36B | -491.90M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 413.70M | 333.00M | -66.10M | -387.60M | -2.02B | -239.70M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -14.50M | -5.10M | 26.80M | -69.90M | 153.30M | -585.10M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -204.20M | 1.70M | -94.40M | 76.80M | 2.02B | 916.80M |
Peloton Interactive Technical Analysis
Negative
5.10
Price Trends
4.79
Positive
4.99
Positive
6.21
Negative
Market Momentum
0.09
Positive
50.94
Neutral
17.68
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PTON, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 5.1 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.31, above the 50-day MA of 4.79, and below the 200-day MA of 6.21, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.09 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.94 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.68 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for PTON.
Peloton Interactive Risk Analysis
Peloton Interactive disclosed 74 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Peloton Interactive reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Peloton Interactive Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $14.97B | 9.08 | 34.82% | ― | 4.86% | -8.97% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
61 Neutral | $2.24B | 17.11 | -6.18% | ― | -3.26% | ― | |
54 Neutral | $3.99B | 28.70 | -69.35% | ― | 14.41% | 31.33% | |
47 Neutral | $1.35B | 16.08 | 46.90% | 2.51% | 4.94% | -960.10% | |
42 Neutral | $243.22M | -77.46 | 14.36% | ― | -5.80% | 32.11% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
PTON
Peloton Interactive
5.18
-2.39
-31.57%
LULU
Lululemon Athletica
126.76
-184.00
-59.21%
PLNT
Planet Fitness
50.48
-54.92
-52.11%
LUCK
Lucky Strike Entertainment
8.87
-0.08
-0.93%
XPOF
Xponential Fitness
5.58
-2.82
-33.57%
Peloton Interactive Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Peloton Names New Content Chief to Drive Member Growth
Positive
Mar 17, 2026
On March 17, 2026, Peloton announced that Chief Content Officer Jen Cotter will step down from her executive role at the close of business on March 31, 2026, moving into a non‑executive advisory position through August 16, 2026 to support a ...
Executive/Board Changes
Peloton Appoints Interim CFO Amid Leadership Transition
Neutral
Mar 12, 2026
Peloton Interactive, Inc. announced on March 11, 2026, that Chief Accounting Officer Saqib Baig will become interim Chief Financial Officer effective March 27, 2026, succeeding CFO Liz Coddington, who will step down the same day to pursue an exter...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.