Peloton Interactive (PTON) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.24B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 13.75M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.31
• Revenue Growth: -7.76%
• EPS Growth: 79.66%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,853
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 71
• Industry: Leisure
• EPS (TTM): 0.05
• Shares Outstanding: 391,926,270
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 23,532,585
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 13,753,892
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.16
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.49
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.03
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 64.01
• 1Y Price Target: $9.81
• Price Target Upside: 12.50% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 14

• Rating: 50 Neutral
• Price Target: $6.50 ▼(-25.46% Downside)

Peloton's overall score is driven by its challenging financial performance, reflected in ongoing profitability issues and high leverage. While the earnings call provided positive guidance and strategic improvements, the negative valuation metrics and mixed technical signals temper the overall outlook.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

Peloton printed another nice quarter, featuring a 5% top-line beat, better than expected churns and CF subs, and strong margin beat, which altogether drove the first positive EPS result since Dec'20.

Revenue Guidance

FY26 revenue guidance indicates improvements with a pathway to over $200 million of free cash flow, suggesting potential for compounded growth beyond FY26.

Strategic Initiatives

Peloton is focusing on strategic initiatives aimed at delivering differentiated product experiences and expanding beyond fitness into elements of wellness.

Negative Factors

Long-term Growth Concerns

Long-term subscriber growth remains a question in light of value capture.

Revenue Uncertainty

There is uncertainty over the extent to which a subscription price increase is factored into guidance, which management did not specify and the impact to subs, revenue and margins.

Subscriber Growth

Subs growth remains negative, hindered by macro and softness in demand.

Peloton Interactive Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Peloton Interactive, Inc. provides interactive fitness products in North America and internationally. It offers connected fitness products with touchscreen that streams live and on-demand classes under the Peloton Bike, Peloton Bike+, Peloton Tread, and Peloton Tread+ names. The company also provides connected fitness subscriptions for various household users, and access to various live and on-demand classes, as well as Peloton Digital app for connected fitness subscribers to provide access to its classes. As of June 30, 2021, it had approximately 5.9 million members. The company markets and sells its interactive fitness products directly through its retail showrooms and at onepeloton.com. Peloton Interactive, Inc. was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

How the Company Makes Money

Peloton Interactive generates revenue through a combination of hardware sales, subscription services, and related fitness accessories. The primary revenue stream comes from the sale of its connected fitness products, notably the Peloton Bike and Peloton Tread. These products are sold directly to consumers through the company's website and retail showrooms. Another significant source of income is Peloton's subscription services, which offer access to live and on-demand fitness classes. Customers can choose between the All-Access Membership, which is tied to Peloton equipment, or the standalone Digital Membership that can be used without the hardware. Additionally, Peloton earns revenue from the sale of branded fitness apparel and accessories. Strategic partnerships, such as collaborations with fitness influencers and technology integrations, also play a role in enhancing Peloton's market presence and driving subscriber growth.

Peloton Interactive Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Peloton faces ongoing profitability issues and high leverage, with negative equity and declining revenues. Despite improvements in cash flow, financial risks remain significant.

Income Statement

Peloton's income statement shows a consistent decline in revenue from 2021 to TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), with a negative revenue growth trend. Gross profit margin has improved in TTM compared to previous years, but net profit margins remain negative, indicating ongoing profitability challenges. EBIT and EBITDA margins also remain negative, although there is a slight improvement in EBITDA margin in TTM.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet indicates high leverage with a significant debt-to-equity ratio due to negative stockholders' equity, posing a financial risk. The equity ratio is negative, reflecting more liabilities than assets. However, the company maintains a steady level of cash and short-term investments.

Cash Flow

Recent TTM data shows a positive free cash flow, a significant improvement from previous periods, indicating better cash management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio suggests effective cash generation relative to net income losses. However, historical free cash flow growth has been negative.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.53B	2.70B	2.80B	3.58B	4.02B	1.83B
Gross Profit	1.24B	1.21B	923.60M	698.40M	1.45B	836.80M
EBITDA	58.70M	-330.80M	-1.04B	-2.53B	-119.60M	-26.20M
Net Income	-171.10M	-551.90M	-1.26B	-2.82B	-189.00M	-71.70M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.06B	2.19B	2.77B	4.04B	4.49B	2.98B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	914.30M	697.60M	813.90M	1.25B	1.61B	1.75B
Total Debt	1.99B	2.08B	2.36B	2.37B	1.51B	555.10M
Total Liabilities	2.56B	2.70B	3.06B	3.44B	2.73B	1.30B
Stockholders Equity	-491.30M	-519.10M	-295.20M	603.70M	1.75B	1.68B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	237.30M	-85.80M	-470.00M	-2.36B	-491.90M	220.00M
Operating Cash Flow	248.60M	-66.10M	-387.60M	-2.04B	-239.70M	376.40M
Investing Cash Flow	-7.10M	26.80M	-69.90M	171.00M	-585.10M	-741.30M
Financing Cash Flow	-121.30M	-94.40M	76.80M	2.02B	916.80M	1.24B

Peloton Interactive Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 8.72
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PTON, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 8.72 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.99, above the 50-day MA of 6.84, and above the 200-day MA of 7.49, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.42 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 70.91 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.16 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PTON.

Peloton Interactive Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
OSW	77 Outperform	$2.26B	32.49	13.16%	0.72%	8.51%	31.24%
YETI	69 Neutral	$2.74B	16.11	23.49%	―	3.63%	-2.60%
LTH	66 Neutral	$6.07B	27.02	8.66%	―	17.25%	93.88%
PLNT	59 Neutral	$8.95B	47.86	-79.88%	―	12.47%	22.74%
Sector *	56 Neutral	HK$25.48B	5.05	-2.69%	5.69%	-0.45%	-52.99%
PTON	50 Neutral	$3.24B	―	58.47%	―	-7.76%	79.66%
XPOF	45 Neutral	$380.83M	―	22.27%	―	-3.02%	-517.53%

Peloton Interactive Corporate Events

Peloton Interactive Announces Leadership Changes in April 2025

On April 9, 2025, Peloton Interactive announced significant leadership changes, appointing Charles Kirol as Chief Operating Officer effective April 14, 2025. Kirol, with over 25 years of experience in supply chain and business transformations, is expected to enhance Peloton’s operational excellence and cost management. Concurrently, Andrew Rendich will transition from Chief Supply Chain Officer to an advisory role, ensuring a smooth transition of responsibilities. Additionally, Dion Camp Sanders has been named Chief Commercial Officer, emphasizing Peloton’s focus on growth and member engagement through expanded channels and improved service experiences.