Peloton Interactive (PTON) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.83B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 13.97M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.31
• Revenue Growth: -6.35%
• EPS Growth: 79.04%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,853
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 77
• Industry: Leisure
• EPS (TTM): -0.12
• Shares Outstanding: 382,593,780
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 14,208,617
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 13,971,573
• PEG Ratio: -0.32
• Price to Book (P/B): -5.29
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 16.85
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $7.86
• Price Target Upside: 19.09% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 13

• Rating: 52 Neutral
• Price Target: $6.50 ▼(-1.52%Downside)

Peloton's overall stock score reflects significant financial challenges due to negative equity and profitability issues. While the earnings call indicates strategic improvements and positive sentiment, these are offset by valuation concerns and mixed technical signals. The focus on cost reduction and service enhancements provides some optimism, but macroeconomic and revenue decline pressures persist.

Positive Factors

Customer Acquisition

Peloton is more efficiently acquiring customers, with 3QFY S&M spend -37% Y/Y and PTON’s LTV/CAC ratio improving 30%+ Y/Y and reaching slightly above ~2x.

Financial Performance

Churn rates improving materially, adoption of newer modalities ramping, and expanding EBITDA and FCF margins show progress at Peloton.

Strategic Leadership

The appointment of a new CEO, Peter Stern, and his full growth strategy is seen as a key catalyst for the stock.

Negative Factors

Growth Outlook

Alternative datapoints continue to question the medium-term growth outlook with an implied subscriber deceleration.

Market Demand

Subscriptions were largely flat sequentially and hardware sales remain under pressure, highlighting the challenges in reigniting demand from new customers.

Topline Growth

The topline growth outlook continues to face meaningful headwinds.

Peloton Interactive Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Peloton Interactive, Inc. is a leading American exercise equipment and media company known for its innovative fitness products and immersive workout experiences. Founded in 2012 and headquartered in New York City, Peloton operates within the fitness and technology sectors. The company's core offerings include high-tech stationary bicycles and treadmills, which come equipped with large screens for streaming live and on-demand classes. Additionally, Peloton provides a digital app that grants users access to a wide array of fitness content, including cycling, running, strength training, yoga, and more, allowing members to exercise with professional instructors from the comfort of their homes.

How the Company Makes Money

Peloton Interactive generates revenue through a combination of hardware sales, subscription services, and related fitness accessories. The primary revenue stream comes from the sale of its connected fitness products, notably the Peloton Bike and Peloton Tread. These products are sold directly to consumers through the company's website and retail showrooms. Another significant source of income is Peloton's subscription services, which offer access to live and on-demand fitness classes. Customers can choose between the All-Access Membership, which is tied to Peloton equipment, or the standalone Digital Membership that can be used without the hardware. Additionally, Peloton earns revenue from the sale of branded fitness apparel and accessories. Strategic partnerships, such as collaborations with fitness influencers and technology integrations, also play a role in enhancing Peloton's market presence and driving subscriber growth.

Peloton Interactive Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Peloton faces significant financial hurdles with negative profitability, high debt levels, and a lack of equity. Although cash flow shows signs of recovery, the company needs to address its profitability issues and debt burden to establish a stable financial footing. The lack of equity is a critical concern, reflecting potential solvency risks.

Income Statement

Peloton's income statement shows significant challenges with profitability. The gross profit margin for the TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) stands at 46.4%, which indicates a moderate ability to cover direct costs. However, the company struggles with negative net profit margins, with a TTM net income of -$290.7 million, highlighting ongoing losses. Although there are improvements in EBIT and EBITDA margins from the previous year, they remain negative, indicating continued operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a precarious financial position. Peloton's total debt is significantly higher than its stockholders' equity, leading to a negative equity situation. This high leverage poses a risk to financial stability. The absence of stockholders' equity in the most recent report suggests potential solvency issues. The equity ratio is uncalculable due to the lack of equity, reflecting a weak capital structure.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement shows some positive aspects, with operating cash flow turning positive in the TTM at $163.5 million, suggesting improvements in cash-generating capability. The free cash flow is also positive at $151.3 million, indicating effective cash management. Despite these improvements, the company still faces challenges with the operating cash flow to net income ratio, as net income remains negative.

Breakdown
TTM	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021	Jun 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
2.62B	2.70B	2.80B	3.58B	4.02B	1.83B
	Gross Profit
1.22B	1.21B	923.60M	698.40M	1.45B	836.80M
	EBIT
-176.00M	-529.00M	-1.20B	-1.64B	-187.90M	-80.90M
	EBITDA
-60.00M	-330.80M	-1.04B	-2.53B	-119.60M	-26.20M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-290.70M	-551.90M	-1.26B	-2.82B	-189.00M	-71.70M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
829.00M	697.60M	813.90M	1.25B	1.61B	1.75B
	Total Assets
2.11B	2.19B	2.77B	4.04B	4.49B	2.98B
	Total Debt
2.03B	2.08B	2.36B	2.37B	1.51B	555.10M
	Net Debt
1.20B	1.38B	1.55B	1.12B	377.30M	-480.40M
	Total Liabilities
2.61B	2.70B	3.06B	3.44B	2.73B	1.30B
	Stockholders Equity
-497.20M	-519.10M	-295.20M	603.70M	1.75B	1.68B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
151.30M	-85.80M	-470.00M	-2.36B	-491.90M	220.00M
	Operating Cash Flow
163.50M	-66.10M	-387.60M	-2.04B	-239.70M	376.40M
	Investing Cash Flow
23.90M	26.80M	-69.90M	171.00M	-585.10M	-741.30M
	Financing Cash Flow
-107.20M	-94.40M	76.80M	2.02B	916.80M	1.24B

Peloton Interactive Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 6.60
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PTON, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 6.6 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.81, above the 50-day MA of 6.40, and below the 200-day MA of 6.94, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.17 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.76 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 51.10 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for PTON.

Peloton Interactive Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
YETI	76 Outperform	$2.53B	14.74	25.01%	―	8.38%	3.69%
OSW	74 Outperform	$1.94B	29.71	12.80%	0.85%	9.80%	89.42%
LTH	71 Outperform	$6.51B	30.94	8.24%	―	18.58%	169.49%
PLNT	64 Neutral	$8.86B	49.91	-79.88%	―	10.32%	20.44%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$6.90B	11.12	2.92%	3.89%	2.68%	-25.06%
PTON	52 Neutral	$2.83B	―	58.47%	―	-6.35%	79.04%
XPOF	51 Neutral	$437.12M	―	22.27%	―	-3.17%	-194.72%

Peloton Interactive Corporate Events

Peloton Interactive Announces Leadership Changes in April 2025

On April 9, 2025, Peloton Interactive announced significant leadership changes, appointing Charles Kirol as Chief Operating Officer effective April 14, 2025. Kirol, with over 25 years of experience in supply chain and business transformations, is expected to enhance Peloton’s operational excellence and cost management. Concurrently, Andrew Rendich will transition from Chief Supply Chain Officer to an advisory role, ensuring a smooth transition of responsibilities. Additionally, Dion Camp Sanders has been named Chief Commercial Officer, emphasizing Peloton’s focus on growth and member engagement through expanded channels and improved service experiences.