White Mountains Insurance Group (WTM) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $5.51B
• Dividend Yield: 0.05%
• Average Volume (3M): 19.77K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 5.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.19
• Revenue Growth: -4.24%
• EPS Growth: -78.10%
• Country: US
• Employees: 893
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Insurance - Property & Casualty
• EPS (TTM): 327.23
• Shares Outstanding: 2,479,677
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 22,997
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 19,775
• PEG Ratio: 0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.98
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.96
• P/FCF Ratio: -737.17
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.12
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.27
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.23
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 4.37
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 115
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 80 Outperform
• Price Target: $2,554.00 ▲(25.87% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/28/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/28/26

The score is driven primarily by solid overall financial strength (strong recent earnings and a low-leverage balance sheet) tempered by a notable cash-flow reversal in 2025. Technicals add support via a clear uptrend and positive momentum, while valuation is a standout positive with a very low P/E and strong dividend yield. A recent strategic investment provides an additional, but smaller, positive catalyst.

Positive Factors

Balance Sheet Strength

Low leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.15) and meaningful equity growth from ~$3.55B (2021) to ~$5.43B (2025) underpin capital flexibility. A conservatively financed balance sheet supports underwriting capacity, acquisitions and solvency through insurance cycles, reducing financing risk over time.

Revenue & Profitability Recovery

Sustained top-line expansion and a strong 2025 profit rebound reflect improved underwriting results and operational execution. The move to higher margins and sizable net income suggests the business can scale profitably when pricing and loss trends are favorable, supporting longer-term earnings potential.

Strategic Investment in Specialty Distribution

The $125M strategic stake in Bishop Street targets secular growth in MGA/specialty distribution, giving WTM durable access to higher-growth underwriting channels. Combined with recent portfolio monetizations, this deployment diversifies revenue sources and boosts long-term franchise value if execution succeeds.

Negative Factors

Weakening Cash Generation

Cash conversion weakened materially in 2025 after strong 2022–2024 cash flows. A near-zero to negative operating cash flow and free cash flow introduces funding uncertainty for dividends, buybacks, and acquisitions, and suggests working-capital or claims timing volatility that can persist across quarters.

Earnings Volatility

Significant year-to-year swings reflect sensitivity to underwriting cycles and catastrophe exposure. This earnings volatility reduces predictability of returns and makes capital planning harder, increasing the risk that future underwriting setbacks could quickly erode reported profitability and ROE.

Shift in Reinsurance/Capital Mix

A reduced sidecar and greater reliance on traditional quota share reinsurance signal a shift away from alternative capital. That may raise reinsurance costs or constrain flexible third-party capital access, potentially limiting underwriting capacity or elevating capital costs for catastrophe-exposed lines over the medium term.

White Mountains Insurance Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

White Mountains Insurance Group, Ltd., through its subsidiaries, provides insurance and other financial services in the United States. The company operates through five segments: HG Global/BAM, Ark, NSM, Kudu, and Other Operations. The HG Global/BAM segment provides insurance on municipal bonds issued to finance public purposes, such as schools, utilities, and transportation facilities, as well as reinsurance protection services. The Ark segment writes a portfolio of reinsurance and insurance, including property, marine and energy, accident and health, casualty, and specialty products. The NSM segment operates as a managing general agent and program administrator for specialty property and casualty insurance to various sectors comprising specialty transportation, real estate, social services, and pet. The Kudu segment provides capital solutions to boutique asset and wealth managers for generational ownership transfers, management buyouts, acquisitions and growth finances, and legacy partner liquidity, as well as strategic assistance to investees. The Other Operations segment offers insurance solutions to travel industry through broker channel and on a direct-to-consumer basis; and manages separate accounts and pooled investment vehicles for insurance-linked securities sectors, including catastrophe bonds, collateralized reinsurance investments, and industry loss warranties of third-party clients. White Mountains Insurance Group, Ltd. was incorporated in 1980 and is headquartered in Hamilton, Bermuda.

How the Company Makes Money

White Mountains Insurance Group generates revenue through multiple channels, primarily by collecting premiums from policyholders in its insurance operations. The company earns underwriting income by assessing and assuming risks associated with the policies it issues. In addition to premiums, WTM also generates income from its investment portfolio, which includes a diversified range of assets such as stocks, bonds, and alternative investments. The performance of these investments contributes significantly to its overall profitability. Furthermore, WTM's strategic partnerships and reinsurance arrangements enhance its earning potential by allowing it to share risks and expand its market reach. Overall, the combination of underwriting income and investment returns constitutes the main revenue streams for White Mountains Insurance Group.

White Mountains Insurance Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong recent profitability and revenue growth, supported by a conservative, low-leverage balance sheet. The main drag is cash-flow quality: operating cash flow and free cash flow turned slightly negative in 2025 despite strong net income, adding variability and reducing confidence in earnings sustainability.

Income Statement

Revenue expanded steadily from $2.17B (2023) to $2.35B (2024) and $2.71B (2025), with 2025 showing strong ~8.8% growth. Profitability in 2025 improved sharply, with net income rising to $1.11B and margins rebounding to very strong levels versus 2024. The key weakness is volatility across the cycle—results swung from a loss in 2021 and negative operating profit in 2022 to strong profitability in 2023–2025, which reduces earnings predictability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks conservatively financed: debt remains modest relative to equity (debt-to-equity ~0.13–0.18 over 2021–2025, ~0.15 in 2025). Equity grew meaningfully from ~$3.55B (2021) to ~$5.43B (2025), supporting a larger asset base ($12.31B in 2025). Returns on equity are strong in 2025 (~20%) but have been inconsistent (negative in 2021, low in 2024), suggesting performance is healthy but not uniformly stable year-to-year.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is the main soft spot. Operating cash flow flipped from strong positives in 2022–2024 (e.g., ~$587M in 2024) to slightly negative in 2025 (-$7M), with free cash flow also turning negative. This reversal after a solid 2024 indicates higher volatility in cash conversion and raises questions around timing effects and working-capital/claims-related movements, even though prior years demonstrated the ability to generate substantial cash.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.71B	2.35B	2.17B	1.16B	614.40M
Gross Profit	1.45B	1.07B	1.15B	370.90M	33.10M
EBITDA	1.41B	371.10M	610.30M	-104.80M	-231.50M
Net Income	1.11B	230.40M	509.20M	792.80M	-275.40M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	12.31B	9.93B	8.39B	7.39B	7.00B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	184.90M	1.22B	1.61B	1.18B	605.80M
Total Debt	837.00M	611.60M	564.60M	575.20M	639.10M
Total Liabilities	6.05B	4.79B	3.82B	3.45B	3.30B
Stockholders Equity	5.43B	4.48B	4.24B	3.75B	3.55B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-7.20M	586.80M	404.10M	326.30M	98.20M
Operating Cash Flow	-7.20M	586.80M	404.10M	326.30M	98.20M
Investing Cash Flow	212.70M	-447.00M	-543.90M	155.70M	-204.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-205.20M	4.20M	7.20M	-461.80M	149.20M

White Mountains Insurance Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 2029.06
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For WTM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2029.06 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2161.05, below the 50-day MA of 2101.38, and above the 200-day MA of 1903.24, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 40.73 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.37 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 63.79 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for WTM.

White Mountains Insurance Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WTM	80 Outperform	$5.51B	5.16	2.95%	0.05%	-4.24%	-78.10%
SIGI	77 Outperform	$5.05B	11.22	13.86%	1.85%	10.98%	74.87%
MCY	74 Outperform	$5.02B	9.27	24.80%	1.34%	6.18%	-21.28%
HGTY	68 Neutral	$4.02B	35.30	16.42%	―	17.47%	54.19%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
KMPR	56 Neutral	$1.90B	14.12	9.03%	3.15%	4.51%	-8.29%
LMND	50 Neutral	$3.95B	-23.05	-29.37%	―	30.53%	21.82%

White Mountains Insurance Group Corporate Events

White Mountains Invests in Bishop Street MGA Platform

On February 26, 2026, Bishop Street Underwriters, a RedBird Capital Partners portfolio company and diversified platform of managing general agents and niche underwriting teams in the property and casualty sector, closed a $125 million structured capital investment from White Mountains Insurance Group. Bishop Street said the capital injection follows a strong 2025, when it surpassed $650 million in gross written premium with industry-leading organic growth and a sub-50% portfolio loss ratio.

Executives from Bishop Street, White Mountains and RedBird framed the deal as a strategic partnership aimed at accelerating Bishop Street’s acquisition-driven expansion, de novo program launches and global footprint in 2026 and beyond. The investment underscores growing investor interest in MGA platforms and is expected to bolster Bishop Street’s ability to capitalize on secular growth tailwinds in specialty insurance distribution, with potential benefits for its operating partners and broader market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (WTM) stock is a Buy with a $2346.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on White Mountains Insurance Group stock, see the WTM Stock Forecast page.

White Mountains renews Ark reinsurance sidecar for 2026

White Mountains Insurance Group’s subsidiary Ark Insurance Holdings Limited renewed its reinsurance sidecar, Outrigger Re Ltd., for business incepting during calendar year 2026 on terms similar to those in effect for 2025. Outrigger entered into a quota share with Ark to provide collateralized reinsurance protection on a portion of Ark Bermuda’s global property catastrophe portfolio, deploying $70 million of investor capital for the 2026 underwriting year, all sourced from third-party investors. The sidecar’s reduced size versus prior years reflects Ark’s increased reliance on traditional quota share reinsurance in 2026, signaling a shift in its capital and risk management mix while still maintaining access to alternative capital from external investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (WTM) stock is a Buy with a $2245.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on White Mountains Insurance Group stock, see the WTM Stock Forecast page.

White Mountains Sells Stake in Bamboo Group

On December 5, 2025, White Mountains Insurance Group completed the sale of a controlling financial interest in WM Pierce Holdings, Inc., including Bamboo Ide8 Insurance Services, to affiliates of CVC Capital Partners. The transaction involved selling approximately 77.3% of its equity interest in the Bamboo Group for $848 million, while retaining an indirect equity interest valued at $250 million. This strategic move allows White Mountains to maintain a 15% equity stake in Bamboo, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (WTM) stock is a Buy with a $2279.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on White Mountains Insurance Group stock, see the WTM Stock Forecast page.