Selective Insurance Group (SIGI)
NASDAQ:SIGI
Top Page
Selective Insurance Group
(NASDAQ:SIGI)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
$85.00
▲(13.82% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/12/26
SIGI scores well on financial performance—especially strong cash generation and conservative leverage—tempered by underwriting profitability volatility. Technicals are supportive with an established uptrend, while valuation is favorable with a moderate P/E and a modest dividend. The latest earnings call adds some caution due to reserve strengthening and personal lines challenges, despite constructive 2026 guidance.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Consistent, high free cash flow that closely tracks net income gives Selective durable internal funding for dividends, buybacks, reinsurance and strategic investments. Reliable cash generation reduces reliance on capital markets and supports resilience across underwriting cycles and catastrophe years.
Negative Factors
Commercial auto reserve strengthening
Material reserve additions and a raised severity trend indicate persistent adverse loss development in commercial auto. This structural deterioration can compress underwriting margins over multiple quarters, force higher pricing or tighter underwriting, and raise catastrophe/reinsurance needs.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Consistent, high free cash flow that closely tracks net income gives Selective durable internal funding for dividends, buybacks, reinsurance and strategic investments. Reliable cash generation reduces reliance on capital markets and supports resilience across underwriting cycles and catastrophe years.
Read all positive factors
Selective Insurance Group (SIGI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.49B
Dividend Yield1.85%
Average Volume (3M)573.33K
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.0
Beta (1Y)0.40
Revenue Growth10.98%
EPS Growth74.87%
CountryUS
Employees2,800
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Property & Casualty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.57
Shares Outstanding60,081,960
10 Day Avg. Volume436,539
30 Day Avg. Volume573,326
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.08
Price to Book (P/B)1.42
Price to Sales (P/S)0.96
P/FCF Ratio4.14
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.20
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.95
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.29
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$87.33Price Target Upside16.94% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)7.89
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.14B
Selective Insurance Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Selective Insurance Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance products and services in the United States. It operates through four segments: Standard Commercial Lines, Standard Personal Lines, E&S Lines, and Investments. The ...
How the Company Makes Money
Selective Insurance Group primarily makes money through (1) underwriting income and (2) investment income on invested assets (often referred to as “float”), with additional contributions from fees and other insurance-related income when applicable...
Selective Insurance Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 29, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call conveyed a balanced message: strong capital, investment performance and notable earnings and book-value gains are offset by meaningful reserve strengthening, commercial auto severity trends, and personal lines challenges concentrated in New Jersey. Management emphasized disciplined underwriting, pricing actions and strategic technology investments to drive future margin improvement, and provided guidance reflecting modest near-term headwinds but expected improvement going into 2026–2027.Positive Updates
Strong Return on Equity and Operating Performance
FY2025 ROE of 14.4% and operating ROE of 14.2%, both above the 10-year average operating ROE of 12.1% and 5-year average of 12.5%; Q4 ROE of 18.3% and non-GAAP operating ROE of 18.7% reflecting robust investment performance.
Negative Updates
Large Commercial Auto Reserve Strengthening
Commercial auto reserves were strengthened by approximately $190 million in 2025 (majority attributable to 2024 and 2025 accident years); management raised expected commercial auto casualty loss cost nearly 6 points and increased expected commercial auto liability severity trend to ~10%.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Return on Equity and Operating Performance
FY2025 ROE of 14.4% and operating ROE of 14.2%, both above the 10-year average operating ROE of 12.1% and 5-year average of 12.5%; Q4 ROE of 18.3% and non-GAAP operating ROE of 18.7% reflecting robust investment performance.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Selective's 2026 guidance calls for a GAAP combined ratio of 96.5%–97.5% (assuming 6 points of catastrophes), which implies an underlying combined ratio of about 90.5%–91.5% (versus 91.8% in 2025) and an operating ROE in the mid‑teens (~14% range); it embeds an overall loss trend of ~7.5% (property ~3.5%, casualty ~9%, ~10% excluding workers' comp), assumes after‑tax net investment income of $465 million (up ~10% vs. 2025), an effective tax rate of ~21.5%, weighted average diluted shares of ~61 million (no repurchase assumption), and expects the expense ratio to rise ~0.5 point for planned technology investments; management noted they do not assume any future reserve development when modeling results and reminded that Q1 typically has higher underlying combined ratios and holding‑company expenses seasonally.Selective Insurance Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
83
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 5.34B | 4.86B | 4.23B | 3.56B | 3.38B |
| Gross Profit | 2.18B | 321.30M | 518.07M | 340.26M | 562.78M |
| EBITDA | 671.59M | 321.71M | 517.25M | 351.37M | 589.58M |
| Net Income | 466.41M | 207.01M | 365.24M | 224.89M | 403.84M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 15.16B | 13.51B | 11.80B | 10.80B | 10.46B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.24B | 1.10B | 7.81B | 7.05B | 7.16B |
| Total Debt | 898.30M | 507.94M | 506.58M | 504.68M | 506.05M |
| Total Liabilities | 11.55B | 10.39B | 8.85B | 8.27B | 7.48B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.61B | 3.12B | 2.95B | 2.53B | 2.98B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.23B | 1.07B | 736.28M | 776.39M | 749.26M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.27B | 1.10B | 758.91M | 802.41M | 771.42M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.52B | -947.38M | -686.36M | -734.45M | -618.78M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 207.48M | -102.75M | -84.49M | -87.82M | -122.81M |
Selective Insurance Group Technical Analysis
Negative
74.68
Price Trends
81.57
Negative
80.89
Negative
80.59
Negative
Market Momentum
-2.35
Positive
32.88
Neutral
32.08
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SIGI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 74.68 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 77.23, below the 50-day MA of 81.57, and below the 200-day MA of 80.59, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.35 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 32.88 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 32.08 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SIGI.
Selective Insurance Group Risk Analysis
Selective Insurance Group disclosed 20 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Selective Insurance Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Selective Insurance Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $5.31B | 4.80 | 22.87% | 0.05% | -4.24% | -78.10% | |
78 Outperform | $5.18B | 14.63 | 23.08% | 4.05% | 3.72% | -16.23% | |
77 Outperform | $4.49B | 10.96 | 13.59% | 1.85% | 10.98% | 74.87% | |
77 Outperform | $5.95B | 8.17 | 19.99% | 1.97% | 5.26% | 72.46% | |
74 Outperform | $4.76B | 6.43 | 25.65% | 1.34% | 6.18% | -21.28% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
56 Neutral | $1.76B | -74.49 | 9.03% | 3.15% | 4.51% | -8.29% |
* Financial Sector Average
SIGI
Selective Insurance Group
74.68
-15.08
-16.80%
MCY
Mercury General
86.02
31.01
56.38%
RLI
RLI
56.32
-20.75
-26.92%
THG
Hanover Insurance
169.38
-0.99
-0.58%
KMPR
Kemper
29.91
-35.00
-53.92%
WTM
White Mountains Insurance Group
2,153.86
228.93
11.89%
Selective Insurance Group Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Selective Insurance Group Updates Corporate Governance Bylaws
Neutral
Jan 30, 2026
On January 29, 2026, Selective Insurance Group, Inc.’s Board of Directors approved a series of amendments to the company’s by-laws, effective January 30, 2026, aimed at modernizing governance provisions and aligning them with current p...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Selective Insurance posts strong Q4 and 2025 results
Positive
Jan 29, 2026
On January 29, 2026, Selective Insurance Group reported strong fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 financial results, highlighted by net income of $2.52 per diluted share and non-GAAP operating income of $2.57 per diluted share for the quarter, with...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.