Selective Insurance Group (SIGI)
NASDAQ:SIGI
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Selective Insurance Group
(NASDAQ:SIGI)
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Rating:80Outperform
Price Target:
$97.00
▲(17.19% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:04/30/26
SIGI scores well on solid financial quality (conservative leverage, healthy ROE, and generally good cash conversion) and constructive technicals (price above key moving averages with positive momentum). Valuation is also supportive with a low P/E. The main offset is earnings-call risk from premium softness and industry loss-trend/social-inflation pressures, despite reaffirmed guidance and strong investment income.
Positive Factors
Conservative leverage and capital base
Selective's conservative leverage (debt ~25% of equity) and steady capital base provide durable financial flexibility to absorb underwriting volatility and catastrophes, fund opportunistic buybacks/dividends, and support disciplined underwriting without forcing distressed capital raises over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Top-line pressure and lower retention
Premium declines and reduced retention (driven by deliberate pruning of unprofitable cohorts) constrain scale and revenue diversification. Over a multi-month horizon lower premiums limit operating leverage benefits, raise expense ratio risk, and may slow margin recovery if growth remains muted.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Conservative leverage and capital base
Selective's conservative leverage (debt ~25% of equity) and steady capital base provide durable financial flexibility to absorb underwriting volatility and catastrophes, fund opportunistic buybacks/dividends, and support disciplined underwriting without forcing distressed capital raises over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Selective Insurance Group (SIGI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.34B
Dividend Yield1.85%
Average Volume (3M)573.33K
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.7
Beta (1Y)0.47
Revenue Growth8.76%
EPS Growth99.32%
CountryUS
Employees2,800
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Property & Casualty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)7.34
Shares Outstanding59,869,520
10 Day Avg. Volume436,539
30 Day Avg. Volume573,326
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.08
Price to Book (P/B)1.42
Price to Sales (P/S)0.96
P/FCF Ratio4.28
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.17
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.16
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.85
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.46
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$88.60Price Target Upside7.04% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)7.74
Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.92B
Selective Insurance Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Selective Insurance Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance products and services in the United States. It operates through four segments: Standard Commercial Lines, Standard Personal Lines, E&S Lines, and Investments. The ...
How the Company Makes Money
Selective Insurance Group primarily makes money through (1) underwriting income and (2) investment income on invested assets (often referred to as “float”), with additional contributions from fees and other insurance-related income when applicable...
Selective Insurance Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 22, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed cautious optimism: the company demonstrated disciplined underwriting execution, reserve stability, strong operating ROE (12%), improving combined ratios in key segments (Personal Lines and E&S), meaningful renewal pricing increases, and material investment income growth (+18%). Offsetting these positives were modest top-line declines (total premiums down 1%, personal lines down 6%), industry headwinds from social inflation and elevated commercial casualty loss trends, slightly lower retention versus a year ago, and an elevated GAAP combined ratio in the quarter (98.3% including catastrophe). Management emphasized deliberate pricing discipline and reaffirmed guidance, signaling confidence in navigating current market challenges while prioritizing margin durability over short-term growth.Positive Updates
Strong Operating Returns
Operating ROE of 12% (management target met), seventh consecutive quarter of double-digit operating returns; reported GAAP EPS $1.58 and non-GAAP operating EPS $1.69 (11.2% ROE and 12% operating ROE).
Negative Updates
Top-Line Pressure — Premiums Declined
Total premiums declined 1% year-over-year (Standard Commercial Lines down 1%, E&S up 1%); Standard Personal Lines net premiums written declined 6% year-over-year even as target mass affluent business grew 1%; decline driven largely by reduced new business hit ratios.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Operating Returns
Operating ROE of 12% (management target met), seventh consecutive quarter of double-digit operating returns; reported GAAP EPS $1.58 and non-GAAP operating EPS $1.69 (11.2% ROE and 12% operating ROE).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Selective reaffirmed its January guidance, forecasting a 2026 GAAP combined ratio of 96.5%–97.5% (assuming 6 points of catastrophe losses) and a full‑year underlying combined ratio of 90.5%–91.5%; it expects after‑tax net investment income of $465 million, an effective tax rate of ~21.5%, a fully diluted weighted average share count of ~60.5 million, and assumes no future reserve development; capital policy targets returning 20%–25% of earnings via dividends, with opportunistic repurchases ($30 million repurchased this quarter, $86 million repurchased in 2025, $140 million remaining on authorization), while the investable portfolio has an average credit quality of A+ and a fixed‑income duration modestly extended to 4.3 years.Selective Insurance Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
82
Very Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.40B | 5.34B | 4.86B | 4.23B | 3.56B | 3.38B |
| Gross Profit | 2.19B | 2.18B | 321.30M | 518.07M | 340.26M | 562.78M |
| EBITDA | 837.00M | 671.59M | 321.71M | 517.25M | 351.37M | 589.58M |
| Net Income | 454.18M | 466.41M | 207.01M | 365.24M | 224.89M | 403.84M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 15.32B | 14.13B | 12.36B | 11.08B | 9.96B | 9.82B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 999.30M | 17.96M | 63.02M | 13.27M | 25.21M | 45.06M |
| Total Debt | 901.42M | 1.01B | 555.67M | 547.62M | 549.18M | 543.35M |
| Total Liabilities | 11.73B | 10.52B | 9.24B | 8.12B | 7.44B | 6.84B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.59B | 3.61B | 3.12B | 2.95B | 2.53B | 2.98B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.13B | 1.19B | 1.07B | 736.28M | 776.39M | 749.26M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.17B | 1.23B | 1.10B | 758.91M | 802.41M | 771.42M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.07B | -1.49B | -947.38M | -686.36M | -734.45M | -618.78M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -201.12M | 207.48M | -102.75M | -84.49M | -87.82M | -122.81M |
Selective Insurance Group Technical Analysis
Positive
82.77
Price Trends
80.22
Positive
81.76
Positive
80.00
Positive
Market Momentum
2.15
Negative
66.12
Neutral
81.29
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SIGI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 82.77 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 84.72, above the 50-day MA of 80.22, and above the 200-day MA of 80.00, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.15 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.12 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 81.29 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SIGI.
Selective Insurance Group Risk Analysis
Selective Insurance Group disclosed 20 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Selective Insurance Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Selective Insurance Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
85 Outperform | $6.81B | 8.24 | 20.92% | 1.97% | 6.41% | 66.30% | |
80 Outperform | $5.34B | 11.67 | 12.93% | 1.85% | 8.76% | 99.32% | |
78 Outperform | $5.70B | 6.41 | 36.48% | 1.34% | 9.70% | 193.37% | |
73 Outperform | $4.84B | 23.95 | 22.00% | 4.05% | 9.01% | 40.14% | |
68 Neutral | $5.31B | -45.11 | 20.61% | 0.05% | 30.09% | 3444.41% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
55 Neutral | $1.74B | -264.26 | 1.52% | 3.15% | 0.51% | -88.36% |
* Financial Sector Average
SIGI
Selective Insurance Group
89.22
3.74
4.37%
MCY
Mercury General
102.93
43.37
72.81%
RLI
RLI
52.64
-18.61
-26.12%
THG
Hanover Insurance
194.56
31.15
19.06%
KMPR
Kemper
29.50
-30.82
-51.10%
WTM
White Mountains Insurance Group
2,144.81
310.64
16.94%
Selective Insurance Group Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Selective Insurance Shareholders Back Board, Pay and Auditor
Positive
Apr 30, 2026
At its April 29, 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, Selective Insurance Group, Inc. reported that shareholders elected all 12 director nominees to one-year terms on the board, with each candidate receiving strong majority support. Stockholders a...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Selective Insurance Reports Solid Q1 2026 Earnings Performance
Positive
Apr 22, 2026
Selective Insurance Group reported first-quarter 2026 results on April 22, 2026, posting net income of $1.58 per diluted share and non-GAAP operating income of $1.69 per diluted share, with return on equity of 11.2% and operating ROE of 12.0%. Whi...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.