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Kemper Corp (KMPR)
NYSE:KMPR
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Kemper
(NYSE:KMPR)
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Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$35.00
▲(13.71% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/12/26
KMPR scores mid-range primarily due to improving financial footing (better leverage and strong recent cash generation) but ongoing volatility and underwriting pressure. The score is further held back by weak technical momentum (below major moving averages and negative MACD). Valuation (moderate P/E and solid yield) and a cautiously constructive earnings outlook partially offset the operational and near-term execution/regulatory risks.
Positive Factors
Improving leverage and balance-sheet resilience
Sustained deleveraging materially improves financial flexibility: lower leverage reduces refinancing and interest risk, supports further buybacks/debt retirements, and gives capacity for reserve strengthening or reinsurance spend. That balance-sheet resilience underpins multi-quarter recovery plans.
Strong operating cash flow and ample liquidity
Consistent, strong operating cash flow and >$1B liquidity provide durable funding for claims, reinsurance, and rate transition lags. This cash generation allows the company to retire debt, sustain buybacks, and invest in underwriting and product pilots without relying on external capital in the near term.
Stable, growing Life segment cash flows
A sizable, stable life book delivers predictable distributable cash flow and better unit economics. Growth in avg premiums and stable earned premiums reduce reliance on volatile P&C underwriting results, diversifying revenue and supporting earnings stability over the coming quarters.
Negative Factors
Elevated underwriting losses in Specialty Auto
Sustained combined ratios above 100% imply underwriting losses that erode capital and margins. With bodily injury severity (notably California) and reserve strengthening adding loss pressure, the company must earn through rate increases and underwriting fixes, a multi-quarter process that keeps profitability fragile.
Declining policies-in-force and written premium
A shrinking policy base reduces scale and premium volume, weakening expense absorption and pricing leverage. Whether deliberate or market-driven, sustained PIF and premium declines prolong earnings recovery, limit margin improvement, and slow the return to normalized underwriting results across regions.
Leadership transition and regulatory timing risk
An interim CEO and active search increase execution and governance uncertainty while the company awaits regulatory approvals for major rate actions. This combination raises the risk of delayed strategy implementation and regulatory relations, slowing product rollouts and the pace of underwriting fixes.
Kemper (KMPR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.83B
Dividend Yield3.15%
Average Volume (3M)639.87K
Price to Earnings (P/E)13.4
Beta (1Y)0.65
Revenue Growth4.51%
EPS Growth-8.29%
CountryUS
Employees7,400
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Property & Casualty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.25
Shares Outstanding58,714,590
10 Day Avg. Volume783,619
30 Day Avg. Volume639,865
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.33
Price to Book (P/B)0.94
Price to Sales (P/S)0.52
P/FCF Ratio4.54
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.45
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.55
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.12
Enterprise Value/Ebitda16.50
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$58.00Price Target Upside88.43% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Kemper Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionKemper Corporation, a diversified insurance holding company, provides property and casualty, and life and health insurance in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Specialty Property & Casualty Insurance, Preferred Property & Casualty Insurance, and Life & Health Insurance. It provides automobile, homeowners, renters, fire, umbrella, general liability, and various other property and casualty insurance to individuals, as well as commercial automobile insurance to businesses. The company also offers life insurance, including permanent and term insurance, as well as supplemental accident and health insurance products; and Medicare supplement insurance, fixed hospital indemnity, home health care, specified disease, and accident-only plans to individuals in rural, suburban, and urban areas. It distributes its products through independent agents and brokers. The company was formerly known as Unitrin, Inc. and changed its name to Kemper Corporation in August 2011. Kemper Corporation was incorporated in 1990 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
How the Company Makes MoneyKemper generates revenue primarily through the sale of insurance premiums across its various segments. The company earns money by collecting premiums from policyholders for property and casualty insurance as well as life and health insurance products. Additionally, Kemper invests the premiums collected until claims are paid out, generating investment income from the invested assets. Key revenue streams include direct premiums written from auto, homeowners, and life insurance policies. The company also benefits from reinsurance arrangements that help manage risk and stabilize earnings. Significant partnerships with independent agents and brokers facilitate the distribution of its insurance products, enhancing its market presence and contributing to its revenue generation.
Kemper Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 04, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call conveyed a balanced message: near-term financial and underwriting challenges in Specialty Auto (notably California severity, Florida refunds, reserve strengthening, a combined ratio >100% and year-over-year declines in policies and premiums) materially pressured results and produced a GAAP loss. Offsetting strengths include a very strong operating cash flow stream ($585M TTM), ample liquidity (> $1B), debt reduction and buybacks, a stable and growing Life segment, progress on restructuring with $33M of annualized run-rate savings, strong commercial auto performance, and promising product pilots that improve competitiveness and support geographic diversification. Management is taking deliberate actions (rate filings, claims/underwriting improvements, new products, expense reductions) but timing and regulatory approvals create near-term uncertainty. Given the weight of both substantive positives and material near-term negatives, the overall tone is cautious and execution-focused.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong operating cash flow and liquidity
Trailing 12-month operating cash flow of $585 million; maintained over $1 billion in available liquidity at quarter end; used operating cash flow to retire $450 million of debt and repurchase approximately $300 million of common stock; debt-to-capital improved 6.4 percentage points to 24.6%.
Life segment stability and growth in unit economics
Life adjusted net operating income of $20 million for the quarter; earned premiums stable year-over-year; face value of in-force business approximately $19.6 billion; average premium per policy issued increased 6%; favorable policy economics and expanded product/distribution activity driving reliable distributable cash flow.
Restructuring progress and expense savings
Recorded $15.5 million restructuring, integration and other costs this quarter tied to announced initiatives; cumulative annualized run-rate cost savings now approximately $33 million (up $3 million sequentially) with expectations for further savings.
Commercial auto performance and growth
Commercial auto underlying combined ratio around 90% with double-digit policy growth; management reports strong underlying margins, consistent results, and the ability to opportunistically increase rates for liability where justified.
New personal auto product pilots improving competitiveness
Piloted updated personal auto product in Arizona and Oregon with segmentation delivering roughly a 30-point improvement in competitiveness; plans to roll out in Florida and Texas within the next few quarters pending regulatory approvals to accelerate geographic diversification.
High-quality investment portfolio supporting earnings
Quarterly net investment income of $103 million (down $2 million sequentially due to alternatives); core investment portfolio described as high-quality and well-diversified with gradually increasing reinvestment yields expected to support future income.
Reduced catastrophe exposure and aligned reinsurance
Jan 1, 2026 reinsurance renewal provides 95% coverage for losses in excess of $50 million up to $160 million; total limit modestly lower (by $15 million) reflecting wind-down of preferred business — management notes catastrophe exposure is meaningfully lower than several years ago.
Negative Updates
Quarterly net loss and negative return on equity
Reported GAAP net loss of $8 million (loss per share $0.13); adjusted consolidated net operating income was $14.6 million ($0.25 per share); produced a negative 1.2% return on equity for the quarter despite 4.6% year-over-year book value per share growth.
Elevated combined ratio and underwriting pressure in Specialty Auto
Underlying P&C combined ratio increased 5.4 points sequentially to 105%; excluding Florida refunds underlying combined ratio was 101.2%; personal auto produced a 105 combined ratio (management referenced underlying pressure driven by bodily injury severity, particularly in California).
Florida statutory refunds materially impacted results
Recorded about a $35 million charge for statutory refunds to personal auto customers tied to Florida's statutory profit limit rules; refunds reduced earned premium and added approximately 3.8 points to the Specialty auto underlying combined ratio.
Reserve strengthening and adverse prior-year development
Strengthened loss reserves within Specialty Auto (primarily commercial auto) reflecting updated experience on bodily injury severity and defense costs; management cited adverse prior-year development of ~3.8 points driven by large losses from accident years 2023 and prior.
Declines in policies-in-force and written premium
Policies in force declined 7.3% year-over-year and written premium declined 9.3% year-over-year (management cited seasonality and deliberate non-rate actions to moderate new business in certain markets); PIF down ~7% in the quarter.
California liability severity and rate timing risk
California is the primary driver of PPA underperformance: BI severity increased after state minimum limits rose dramatically; company filed a 6.9% overall rate with much larger BI impacts (management referenced BI rate needs 'north of 40 points') and must wait for regulatory approval — earnings will remain pressured until rates are approved and earn in.
Leadership transition and execution risk
Interim CEO in place and board conducting an active CEO search — potential governance/leadership uncertainty alongside the near-term operational and regulatory challenges in Specialty Auto.
Company Guidance
Management guided that it is taking targeted actions to restore Specialty Auto profitability and reduce volatility after Q4 FY2025 results that included a $8M net loss ($0.13/sh), adjusted consolidated net operating income of $14.6M ($0.25/sh), a -1.2% ROE, and 4.6% y/y book value per share growth, supported by $585M trailing‑12‑month operating cash flow and >$1B available liquidity. Key metrics and actions: Specialty P&C underlying combined ratio rose 5.4 pts sequentially to 105% (ex‑Florida refunds 101.2%); Florida statutory refunds (~$35M) added 3.8 pts; personal auto ~105% (California ~105%; Florida/Texas ~95–97%), commercial auto ~90% with double‑digit policy growth, prior‑year adverse development ~3.8 pts; policies in force and written premium were down 7.3% and 9.3% y/y. They recognized $15.5M of restructuring/integration charges this quarter, reported cumulative annualized run‑rate savings of ~$33M (up $3M), retired $450M of debt and repurchased ~$300M of stock over the past year (debt‑to‑capital 24.6%, long‑term target ~22%), quarterly net investment income $103M (down $2M), Life adjusted NOI $20M with $19.6B face in force and avg premium per policy issued +6%, and a Jan 1 reinsurance CAT XL providing 95% coverage in excess of $50M up to $160M (limit $15M lower y/y). Management expects California rate filings (filed ~6.9% overall with BI increases north of 40 pts) to earn in over subsequent 6–12 months, continued reserve actions where needed, and near‑term shrinkage in CA while accelerating profitable growth in non‑CA states.Kemper Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Financials show a rebound with positive earnings and operating profit in 2024–2025 and strong recent free cash flow, alongside improving leverage (debt-to-equity down to ~0.35 in 2025). Offsetting this, results remain volatile with generally negative revenue trends, margin compression in 2025 vs 2024, and prior multi-year losses that highlight uneven profitability.Income Statement
Profitability has improved meaningfully versus the 2021–2023 loss period, with 2024–2025 returning to positive earnings and positive operating profit. However, performance is choppy: revenue has generally declined year-over-year (including a sharp drop in 2025 per the provided growth rate), and margins have compressed in 2025 versus 2024 (net margin ~3.0% in 2025 vs ~6.9% in 2024). Overall, the earnings recovery is a clear positive, but the volatility and weakening margin trend keep the score mid-range.56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
Leverage looks manageable and has improved recently, with debt-to-equity down to ~0.35 in 2025 from ~0.50 in 2024 and ~0.55–0.57 in 2022–2023. Equity remains substantial (~$2.68B in 2025) relative to debt (~$0.94B), supporting balance-sheet resilience. The key drawback is inconsistent shareholder returns: return on equity turned positive in 2024–2025 (~11.4% to ~5.3%) after deeply negative levels in 2022–2023, indicating the capital base has not produced steady profitability.63
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is a strength in the most recent two years, with solid positive operating cash flow and free cash flow in 2024–2025 (2025 free cash flow ~$554M). Free cash flow is also broadly in line with reported earnings in 2024–2025 (free cash flow to net income ~0.86–0.95), suggesting decent earnings quality. The main weakness is volatility: operating and free cash flow were negative in 2022–2023, and 2025 free cash flow growth is sharply negative per the provided figure, highlighting uneven cash-flow trajectory.70
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 4.80B | 4.63B | 4.91B | 5.45B | 5.61B |
| Gross Profit | 1.43B | 589.40M | 4.91B | -211.30M | 354.80M |
| EBITDA | 273.50M | 499.10M | -232.40M | -245.40M | -105.90M |
| Net Income | 143.30M | 317.80M | -272.10M | -286.60M | -123.70M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 12.47B | 12.63B | 12.74B | 13.36B | 14.92B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 126.00M | 1.13B | 587.00M | 7.39B | 432.30M |
| Total Debt | 943.50M | 1.39B | 1.39B | 1.39B | 1.12B |
| Total Liabilities | 9.80B | 9.85B | 10.24B | 10.92B | 10.91B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.68B | 2.79B | 2.51B | 2.44B | 4.01B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 553.90M | 329.70M | -189.10M | -241.10M | 292.90M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 584.50M | 382.90M | -135.30M | -210.30M | 350.70M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 336.20M | -244.40M | 107.90M | -108.40M | -118.20M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -860.10M | -137.20M | -122.00M | 382.90M | -290.40M |
Kemper Technical Analysis
Negative
30.78
Price Trends
37.50
Negative
40.10
Negative
48.81
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.86
Positive
28.39
Positive
18.98
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KMPR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 30.78 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 34.46, below the 50-day MA of 37.50, and below the 200-day MA of 48.81, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.86 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 28.39 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.98 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for KMPR.
Kemper Risk Analysis
Kemper disclosed 28 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Kemper reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Kemper Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $3.21B | 16.83 | 23.58% | ― | 54.41% | 52.71% | |
74 Outperform | $4.75B | 8.58 | 24.80% | 1.34% | 6.18% | -21.28% | |
73 Outperform | $3.44B | ― | 13.97% | ― | ― | ― | |
69 Neutral | $3.90B | 39.92 | 16.42% | ― | 17.47% | 54.19% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
60 Neutral | $3.90B | -21.98 | -31.34% | ― | 30.53% | 21.82% | |
56 Neutral | $1.83B | 13.45 | 9.03% | 3.15% | 4.51% | -8.29% |
* Financial Sector Average
KMPR
Kemper
31.25
-32.61
-51.07%
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85.77
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60.64%
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HGTY
Hagerty Inc Class A
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AHL
Aspen Insurance Holdings Ltd Class A
37.50
3.04
8.82%
Kemper Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Kemper Details Executive Severance and Transition for Duane Sanders
Neutral
Dec 19, 2025
Kemper Corporation has formalized the departure arrangements for Duane A. Sanders, who resigned as Executive Vice President and Chief Claims Officer, P&C effective October 22, 2025, and will continue in a reduced role as Executive Vice President, Executive Advisor through December 31, 2025. Under a Separation and Release Agreement executed on December 16, 2025, following his termination without cause, Sanders will receive a cash severance of $2.025 million, continued eligibility for a 2025 annual bonus tied to actual performance, 18 months of employer-funded healthcare continuation, 12 months of financial planning services, and continued vesting of certain equity awards based on retirement-vesting provisions, all conditioned on his release of claims, adherence to non-compete and non-solicitation covenants, and other restrictive obligations; the package underscores Kemper’s structured approach to executive transitions and its use of separation agreements to protect confidential information and stabilize leadership changes.
The most recent analyst rating on (KMPR) stock is a Hold with a $42.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kemper stock, see the KMPR Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.