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Kemper Corp (KMPR)
NYSE:KMPR
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Kemper (KMPR) AI Stock Analysis

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KMPR

Kemper

(NYSE:KMPR)

Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
Kemper's overall score reflects mixed financial health with challenges in profitability and leverage, offset by positive earnings guidance and undervaluation. Technical indicators signal a bearish trend, but earnings call highlights suggest potential for improvement and stability in the long term.
Positive Factors
Specialty Auto Business Growth
The growth in the specialty auto business indicates strong market demand and operational efficiency, which can drive long-term profitability and competitive positioning in the auto insurance sector.
Balance Sheet Strengthening
Reducing debt levels improves financial stability and flexibility, allowing Kemper to invest in growth opportunities and withstand economic fluctuations more effectively.
Life Segment Stability
Stable performance in the Life segment contributes to diversified revenue streams and reduces dependency on more volatile segments, supporting long-term financial health.
Negative Factors
Declining Revenue Trend
A declining revenue trend poses challenges to sustaining growth and profitability, necessitating strategic adjustments to reverse the trend and enhance market competitiveness.
High Leverage
High leverage can limit financial flexibility and increase risk, particularly in volatile market conditions, impacting long-term financial stability and growth potential.
California Market Challenges
Regulatory and environmental challenges in key markets like California can hinder growth and profitability, requiring strategic adaptation to mitigate risks and capitalize on opportunities.

Kemper (KMPR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Kemper Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionKemper Corporation, a diversified insurance holding company, provides property and casualty, and life and health insurance in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Specialty Property & Casualty Insurance, Preferred Property & Casualty Insurance, and Life & Health Insurance. It provides automobile, homeowners, renters, fire, umbrella, general liability, and various other property and casualty insurance to individuals, as well as commercial automobile insurance to businesses. The company also offers life insurance, including permanent and term insurance, as well as supplemental accident and health insurance products; and Medicare supplement insurance, fixed hospital indemnity, home health care, specified disease, and accident-only plans to individuals in rural, suburban, and urban areas. It distributes its products through independent agents and brokers. The company was formerly known as Unitrin, Inc. and changed its name to Kemper Corporation in August 2011. Kemper Corporation was incorporated in 1990 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
How the Company Makes MoneyKemper Corporation generates revenue primarily through the collection of premiums from policyholders in exchange for the insurance coverage it provides. In the Property & Casualty Insurance segment, it earns money by underwriting personal and commercial auto insurance, homeowners insurance, and other specialty insurance products. These products are mainly sold through a network of independent agents and brokers. In the Life & Health Insurance segment, Kemper makes money by offering life insurance, health insurance, and annuity products. The company also invests a portion of the premiums it collects in various financial instruments, generating investment income that contributes to its overall earnings. Key factors that influence Kemper's revenue include underwriting performance, claims expenses, investment returns, and policy renewal rates.

Kemper Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflected strong performance in Specialty Auto with significant growth and solid financial metrics. However, challenges such as adverse prior-year development and investment portfolio volatility were noted. Despite these challenges, the company's financial strength, including a robust cash flow and significant share repurchase authorization, suggests confidence in future growth and stability.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Specialty Auto Performance
Specialty Auto generated a 93.5% underlying combined ratio, with 8% year-over-year PIF growth and earned premium growth of 17%.
Record Operating Cash Flow
Achieved an all-time high trailing 12-month operating cash flow of nearly $600 million.
Solid Financial Metrics
Reported a return on adjusted equity of 15% and adjusted book value per share growth of 14% year-over-year.
Debt Reduction and Share Repurchases
Retired $450 million of debt, bringing debt-to-cap ratio near long-term target, and repurchased $80 million of common stock since April 1.
Significant Share Repurchase Authorization
Board approved an additional $500 million of repurchase authorization, bringing the total available to $550 million.
Negative Updates
Adverse Prior-Year Development
Reported $19 million adverse development in Commercial Vehicle business due to social inflation and large loss bucket impacts.
Alternative Investment Portfolio Volatility
Net investment income was pressured by volatility in the alternative investment portfolio, impacting Specialty Auto and Life segments.
Sequential PIF Decline
PIF is down 70 basis points sequentially, attributed to seasonal shopping patterns in Specialty Auto.
Company Guidance
During Kemper's Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company reported strong underlying operating results with several key metrics highlighted. They achieved a return on adjusted equity of 15% and adjusted book value per share growth of 14% year-over-year. The Specialty Auto segment delivered a 93.5% underlying combined ratio, with an 8% year-over-year growth in policies in force (PIF) and a 17% increase in earned premium. The Private Passenger Auto segment also performed well but was slightly off the highs seen in the hard market. The Commercial Auto business maintained a 90% underlying combined ratio and experienced 18% PIF growth. The company addressed adverse prior-year development of approximately $19 million due to social inflation impacts but maintained a strong balance sheet, retiring $450 million of debt. Notably, Kemper achieved an all-time high trailing 12-month operating cash flow of nearly $600 million and repurchased $80 million of common stock since April 1. The board approved an additional $500 million in share repurchase authorization, totaling $550 million available for future repurchases.

Kemper Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Kemper faces financial challenges with declining revenues, high leverage, and inconsistent cash flows. However, improvements in cash generation and management are notable. The company needs to focus on profitability and leverage to enhance stability.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Kemper's income statement shows a declining trend in revenue and profitability over the years. The gross profit margin is consistent, but net income has turned negative, indicating issues with cost management or operations. Revenue decreased by approximately 5.6% from 2022 to 2023, with a slight improvement in 2024. The lack of EBIT and EBITDA data for the recent periods limits a comprehensive profitability analysis.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The balance sheet reflects high leverage with an increasing debt-to-equity ratio over the years. As of 2023, the debt-to-equity ratio is around 0.55, indicating significant reliance on debt financing. The equity ratio is unavailable due to missing total assets data for 2024, but a declining trend in stockholders' equity raises concerns about financial stability.
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
Kemper's cash flow statement reveals fluctuating free cash flow with recent positive growth in 2024. The operating cash flow to net income ratio shows improvement, indicating better cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is volatile, reflecting inconsistent cash management.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue3.66B320.70M4.91B5.58B5.79B5.20B
Gross Profit1.75B263.80M4.91B5.58B5.79B5.20B
EBITDA518.20M445.40M-232.40M-245.40M-105.70M601.10M
Net Income340.70M317.80M-272.10M-301.20M-120.50M409.90M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets0.0012.63B12.74B13.36B14.92B14.34B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments0.001.13B587.00M7.39B8.42B8.69B
Total Debt0.001.39B1.39B1.39B1.12B1.17B
Total Liabilities9.66B9.85B10.24B10.92B1.35B1.46B
Stockholders Equity2.95B2.79B2.51B2.44B4.01B4.56B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow612.00M329.70M-188.00M-241.10M292.90M371.70M
Operating Cash Flow586.60M382.90M-134.20M-210.30M350.70M425.10M
Investing Cash Flow84.40M-244.40M107.90M-108.40M-118.20M-757.00M
Financing Cash Flow-601.40M-137.20M-122.00M382.90M-290.40M401.20M

Kemper Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price52.96
Price Trends
50DMA
57.04
Negative
100DMA
59.45
Negative
200DMA
62.34
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.81
Negative
RSI
41.38
Neutral
STOCH
33.39
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KMPR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 52.96 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 53.49, below the 50-day MA of 57.04, and below the 200-day MA of 62.34, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.81 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 41.38 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.39 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for KMPR.

Kemper Risk Analysis

Kemper disclosed 28 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Kemper reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Kemper Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
83
Outperform
$3.18B20.8722.45%52.60%50.69%
79
Outperform
$4.31B11.0621.56%1.63%14.93%22.19%
74
Outperform
$4.26B60.7112.70%17.25%-11.72%
68
Neutral
$17.85B11.549.95%3.76%9.70%1.08%
62
Neutral
$3.36B12.50%
58
Neutral
$3.35B10.0612.21%2.40%2.75%572.22%
55
Neutral
$3.91B-35.10%22.91%4.95%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
KMPR
Kemper
52.96
-5.29
-9.08%
MCY
Mercury General
77.87
20.87
36.61%
PLMR
Palomar Holdings
118.70
25.84
27.83%
LMND
Lemonade
49.18
31.16
172.92%
HGTY
Hagerty Inc Class A
12.47
1.38
12.44%
AHL
Aspen Insurance Holdings Ltd Class A
36.60
2.14
6.21%

Kemper Corporate Events

Financial Disclosures
Kemper Schedules Q4 2024 Earnings Release and Minimizes Wildfire Losses
Neutral
Jan 22, 2025

On January 22, 2025, Kemper Corporation announced its schedule for the fourth quarter 2024 earnings release, set to be issued after markets close on February 5, 2025. The company also provided an initial estimate of less than $1 million in preliminary losses from the California wildfires for the first quarter of 2025, indicating limited exposure to this catastrophe.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Apr 21, 2025