Lemonade (LMND)
NYSE:LMND
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Lemonade
(NYSE:LMND)
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Rating:57Neutral
Price Target:
$56.00
▲(0.67% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/18/26
The score is driven primarily by improving fundamentals and a constructive earnings-call outlook (strong growth, margin expansion, and an articulated path to EBITDA profitability), offset by still-weak current financial performance (ongoing net losses, negative ROE, and negative annual free cash flow), mixed technical signals, and limited valuation support due to a negative P/E and no dividend yield provided.
Positive Factors
Scale & Top-line Growth
Sustained double-digit revenue and in‑force premium growth indicate durable demand and distribution scale. A growing premium base spreads fixed costs, enhances underwriting data, and supports product cross-sell and geographic expansion, strengthening long-term revenue visibility and operating leverage.
Negative Factors
Persistent GAAP Losses & Equity Erosion
Ongoing GAAP losses and declining equity are structurally damaging: they erode shareholder value, can tighten regulatory or reinsurance terms, and may force dilutive capital raises. Persistent negative returns weaken financial flexibility and heighten long-term funding risk.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Scale & Top-line Growth
Sustained double-digit revenue and in‑force premium growth indicate durable demand and distribution scale. A growing premium base spreads fixed costs, enhances underwriting data, and supports product cross-sell and geographic expansion, strengthening long-term revenue visibility and operating leverage.
Read all positive factors
Lemonade (LMND) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.25B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.97M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.27
Revenue Growth30.53%
EPS Growth21.82%
CountryUS
Employees1,235
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Property & Casualty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.29
Shares Outstanding76,383,440
10 Day Avg. Volume1,388,177
30 Day Avg. Volume1,966,717
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.60
Price to Book (P/B)9.58
Price to Sales (P/S)6.93
P/FCF Ratio-197.38
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.93
Enterprise Value/Revenue5.36
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit12.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-27.15
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$64.14Price Target Upside15.30% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)-1.71
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.20B
Lemonade Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Lemonade, Inc. provides various insurance products in the United States and Europe. Its insurance products include stolen or damaged property, and personal liability that protects its customers if they are responsible for an accident or damage to ...
How the Company Makes Money
Lemonade makes money primarily by earning insurance premium revenue on policies it underwrites and by generating investment income on the assets (float) held to pay future claims. Its core revenue stream is premiums collected from policyholders, w...
Lemonade Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down income from different insurance products, revealing which segments are driving growth and where there might be opportunities or challenges.
Breaks down income from different insurance products, revealing which segments are driving growth and where there might be opportunities or challenges.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyLemonade Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 19, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented strong and broad‑based operational and financial momentum: high single‑ and double‑digit top‑line growth, large increases in gross profit and improving adjusted gross margins, robust customer additions, positive free cash flow, and near‑term adjusted EBITDA breakeven trajectory. The company is investing aggressively in growth, AI/telematics (notably autonomous car insurance), and platform initiatives that management expects will compound future advantages. Offsetting this are continued GAAP net losses, rising operating expenses (driven by scaled growth spend and select G&A increases), some reliance on prior period reserve development to improve loss metrics, and uncertainties around the pace of autonomous adoption and the magnitude/timing of R&D investments. Overall, the positives—strong revenue, gross profit expansion, cash generation, and clear product/AI initiatives—materially outweigh the negatives in the near term.Positive Updates
Record Quarter: Revenue and In‑Force Premium Growth
In Q4 2025 in‑force premium reached $1,240,000,000, up 31% year‑over‑year, extending nine consecutive quarters of accelerating growth; revenue grew 53% year‑over‑year to $228,000,000.
Negative Updates
GAAP Net Loss and Remaining Adjusted EBITDA Gap
Net loss was $22,000,000 in Q4 (loss of $0.29 per share) versus a $30,000,000 net loss ($0.42 per share) the prior year — an improvement but still a GAAP loss. Adjusted EBITDA remains a small loss of $5,000,000 (near breakeven).
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarter: Revenue and In‑Force Premium Growth
In Q4 2025 in‑force premium reached $1,240,000,000, up 31% year‑over‑year, extending nine consecutive quarters of accelerating growth; revenue grew 53% year‑over‑year to $228,000,000.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that Q1 and full‑year 2026 will see strong top‑line growth (Q1 YoY ~32% with a company goal of 30%+ and an ambition to accelerate quarter‑over‑quarter), cited roughly 60% full‑year revenue growth, and reiterated expectations for a positive EBITDA quarter in Q4 2026 and full‑year EBITDA profitability in 2027; they plan total 2026 growth spend of about $225M (Q1 spending similar to Q4’s ~$53M), expect to maintain marketing efficiency with an LTV‑to‑CAC above 3x, see non‑growth operating expenses rising only in the single digits, and noted ample capital to support growth with roughly $1.1B in cash and investments (about $250M held as regulatory surplus).Lemonade Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
42
Neutral
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
46
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 737.90M | 526.50M | 429.80M | 256.70M | 128.40M |
| Gross Profit | 297.20M | 172.70M | 90.20M | 28.40M | 22.90M |
| EBITDA | -145.70M | -183.90M | -209.80M | -282.60M | -229.90M |
| Net Income | -165.50M | -202.20M | -236.90M | -297.80M | -241.30M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.93B | 1.85B | 1.63B | 1.69B | 1.51B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.11B | 1.01B | 937.70M | 1.03B | 1.07B |
| Total Debt | 182.10M | 107.20M | 43.10M | 35.20M | 22.30M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.39B | 1.26B | 924.40M | 823.90M | 522.30M |
| Stockholders Equity | 533.60M | 593.40M | 708.90M | 866.80M | 988.20M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -25.90M | -20.80M | -128.30M | -173.10M | -154.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -16.50M | -11.40M | -119.10M | -163.00M | -144.60M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -89.10M | 40.60M | 88.70M | 181.10M | -804.80M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 106.60M | 87.70M | 15.40M | 3.60M | 649.60M |
Lemonade Technical Analysis
Negative
55.63
Price Trends
62.54
Negative
70.51
Negative
61.12
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.30
Positive
38.98
Neutral
11.99
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LMND, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 55.63 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 61.60, below the 50-day MA of 62.54, and below the 200-day MA of 61.12, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.30 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.98 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.99 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for LMND.
Lemonade Risk Analysis
Lemonade disclosed 68 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Lemonade reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Lemonade Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $3.41B | 18.22 | 22.79% | ― | 54.41% | 52.71% | |
72 Outperform | $113.56B | 11.81 | 44.53% | 2.20% | 18.35% | 32.36% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
58 Neutral | $684.13M | 27.78 | 10.96% | ― | 38.50% | ― | |
57 Neutral | $4.25B | -58.89 | -31.19% | ― | 30.53% | 21.82% | |
56 Neutral | $1.83B | -74.49 | 9.03% | 3.15% | 4.51% | -8.29% |
* Financial Sector Average
LMND
Lemonade
54.45
28.10
106.64%
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ROOT
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Lemonade Corporate Events
Delistings and Listing Changes
Lemonade Metromile merger warrants near February 2026 expiry
Neutral
Jan 27, 2026
Lemonade, Inc., which operates a technology-focused consumer insurance platform, issued 7,846,646 warrants with an exercise price of $218.51 as part of its November 8, 2021 merger agreement with Metromile, Inc. These Lemonade warrants, listed on t...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.