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Lemonade
(NYSE:LMND)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$50.00
▼(-19.34% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/31/26
LMND scores in the mid-range because improving financial execution (better gross margins and recently positive cash flow) is still offset by continued GAAP losses and weak price trend versus key moving averages. The latest earnings call and raised guidance provide a meaningful positive tilt toward the path to EBITDA breakeven, but valuation remains difficult to anchor with negative earnings and no dividend support.
Positive Factors
Revenue growth and market traction
Sustained double‑digit revenue growth reflects accelerating policy sales and higher premium retention, showing product-market fit across lines. This durable top-line momentum supports scale economics and funds continued investment in distribution and product expansion.
Negative Factors
Persisting GAAP losses and negative ROE
Ongoing GAAP net losses and negative returns on equity constrain capital resilience and limit optionality. Until GAAP profitability and ROE turn positive, the firm faces pressure to raise capital or accept dilution, which can impede long‑term strategic flexibility.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue growth and market traction
Sustained double‑digit revenue growth reflects accelerating policy sales and higher premium retention, showing product-market fit across lines. This durable top-line momentum supports scale economics and funds continued investment in distribution and product expansion.
Read all positive factors
Lemonade Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down where revenue comes from across Lemonade’s lines (renters, homeowners, pet, life, reinsurance, and other services), showing which products drive growth, which are most profitable, and how well new offerings are gaining traction.
Breaks down where revenue comes from across Lemonade’s lines (renters, homeowners, pet, life, reinsurance, and other services), showing which products drive growth, which are most profitable, and how well new offerings are gaining traction.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyLemonade (LMND) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.71B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.33M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.61
Revenue Growth76.73%
EPS Growth35.36%
CountryUS
Employees1,282
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Property & Casualty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.87
Shares Outstanding76,820,786
10 Day Avg. Volume1,093,853
30 Day Avg. Volume1,330,361
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.60
Price to Book (P/B)9.58
Price to Sales (P/S)6.93
P/FCF Ratio-197.38
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda>-0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$64.20Price Target Upside3.57% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)-1.82
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.22B
Lemonade Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Lemonade, Inc. functions as an insurance provider operating across the United States and Europe, offering a diverse array of policies. Their core coverage options encompass protection against stolen or damaged personal property, as well as persona...
How the Company Makes Money
Lemonade makes money primarily by collecting insurance premiums from policyholders and retaining a portion of those premiums after paying claims, reinsurance costs, and operating expenses. Its core revenue model is built around:
1) Insurance prem...
Lemonade Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 29, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong and accelerating top-line growth (IFP +32% YoY, revenue +71% YoY), substantial expansion in gross profit (+159%) and improving profitability measures (adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed 64% and adjusted free cash flow positive). Management highlighted sustainable unit economics (LTV:CAC >3), operational leverage from AI-driven automation (IFP per employee >$1M, LAE ~6%), and material progress in key product lines (Pet IFP $500M). Key challenges remain: a relatively high gross loss/combined ratio (~138% combined per analyst), rising operating expenses and stock-based comp, ADR pressure from prior book clean-up, and remaining GAAP net losses. Given the pronounced improvements in growth, margins, cash flow, and explicit targets toward breakeven (positive EBITDA quarter expected in Q4), the positive developments materially outweigh the lingering lowlights.Positive Updates
Strong In-Force Premium Growth
In-force premium (IFP) reached $1.33 billion, up 32% year-over-year, extending an accelerating growth streak to 10 consecutive quarters.
Negative Updates
High Reported Gross Loss Ratio
Company reported a gross loss ratio of 62% in Q1; total catastrophe impact was 5% for the quarter (primarily winter storm activity). Prior period development was favorable by ~3% (driven by homeowners, multi-peril and car).
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong In-Force Premium Growth
In-force premium (IFP) reached $1.33 billion, up 32% year-over-year, extending an accelerating growth streak to 10 consecutive quarters.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Lemonade raised its full‑year top‑ and bottom‑line guidance and reiterated that it expects to deliver a positive full quarter of adjusted EBITDA in Q4 2026 and be EBITDA‑positive for the full year 2027. The updated outlook implies 32% top‑line growth in Q2 and 33% for the full year (which the company says corresponds to roughly 77% revenue growth implied by Q2 guidance and ~63% revenue growth for the full year), with Q2 gross marketing spend stepping up ~12% versus Q1 (Q1 gross spend was $54M) and total gross spend expected at about $235M for 2026. Management also said the reinsurance transition will continue to phase in (Q1 retention/seed ~30% versus a 55% peak last year, ceding ~25% in Q2 and normalizing near ~20% in Q3), reaffirmed marketing efficiency (LTV:CAC >3x), guided stock‑based comp of ~$95M for the year, and noted continued positive adjusted free cash flow (Q1 adj. FCF $17M; positive 7 of the last 8 quarters).Lemonade Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
44
Neutral
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
52
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 931.00M | 737.90M | 526.50M | 429.80M | 256.70M | 128.40M |
| Gross Profit | 445.50M | 297.20M | 172.70M | 90.20M | 28.40M | 22.90M |
| EBITDA | -122.20M | -145.70M | -183.90M | -209.80M | -282.60M | -229.90M |
| Net Income | -138.40M | -165.50M | -202.20M | -236.90M | -297.80M | -241.30M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.75B | 1.93B | 1.85B | 1.63B | 1.69B | 1.51B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 380.30M | 1.11B | 1.01B | 937.70M | 1.03B | 1.07B |
| Total Debt | 206.40M | 182.10M | 107.20M | 43.10M | 35.20M | 22.30M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.25B | 1.39B | 1.26B | 924.40M | 823.90M | 522.30M |
| Stockholders Equity | 499.50M | 533.60M | 593.40M | 708.90M | 866.80M | 988.20M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 8.10M | -25.90M | -20.80M | -128.30M | -173.10M | -154.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 21.20M | -16.50M | -11.40M | -119.10M | -163.00M | -144.60M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -145.10M | -89.10M | 40.60M | 88.70M | 181.10M | -804.80M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 116.90M | 106.60M | 87.70M | 15.40M | 3.60M | 649.60M |
Lemonade Technical Analysis
Negative
61.99
Price Trends
60.69
Negative
60.43
Negative
65.52
Negative
Market Momentum
-3.22
Positive
39.41
Neutral
17.09
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LMND, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 61.99 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 63.49, above the 50-day MA of 60.69, and below the 200-day MA of 65.52, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -3.22 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.41 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.09 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for LMND.
Lemonade Risk Analysis
Lemonade disclosed 68 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Lemonade reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Lemonade Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | $123.54B | 10.58 | 35.54% | 2.20% | 10.49% | 12.21% | |
79 Outperform | $3.55B | 18.06 | 21.74% | ― | 60.95% | 43.94% | |
76 Outperform | $856.99M | 15.34 | 14.75% | ― | 22.83% | 2.00% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
57 Neutral | $1.67B | 45.69 | 1.52% | 4.44% | 0.51% | -88.36% | |
55 Neutral | $3.71B | -25.83 | -26.78% | ― | 76.73% | 35.36% |
* Financial Sector Average
LMND
Lemonade
53.05
16.05
43.38%
PGR
Progressive
210.46
-16.38
-7.22%
KMPR
Kemper
29.28
-29.52
-50.20%
PLMR
Palomar Holdings
136.51
4.98
3.79%
ROOT
Root
57.07
-62.91
-52.43%
Lemonade Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Lemonade Announces CFO Transition and Board Leadership Update
Positive
Jul 29, 2026
On July 27, 2026, Lemonade’s board approved the transition of longtime Chief Financial Officer Tim Bixby from his executive role into a Class III board directorship, effective January 1, 2027, formalizing his move from day-to-day financial m...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Lemonade Secures Hannover Re Growth Financing Agreement
Positive
Jun 24, 2026
On June 22, 2026, Lemonade, Inc. entered into a New Business Financing Agreement with Hannover Re (Ireland) DAC that will allow Hannover to provide up to $250 million in capital to fund Lemonade’s sales and marketing growth efforts from Janu...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Lemonade Stockholders Endorse Directors, Auditor and Executive Pay
Positive
Jun 5, 2026
On June 3, 2026, Lemonade held its annual stockholders meeting, with 70.12% of voting power represented, and shareholders elected Michael Eisenberg and Debra Schwartz as Class III directors to serve until the 2029 annual meeting. Investors also ra...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.