Lemonade (LMND)
NYSE:LMND
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Lemonade
(NYSE:LMND)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$57.00
▼(-19.65% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/30/26
The score is primarily held back by still-weak financial profitability (ongoing net losses and pressured equity) and bearish technical positioning (trading below key moving averages with soft momentum). These are partly offset by a constructive earnings call with raised guidance, improving margins, and continued positive adjusted free cash flow, though valuation support is limited given negative earnings and no dividend yield provided.
Positive Factors
Rapid revenue & IFP growth
Sustained high single- to double-digit growth in in-force premium and revenue indicates successful commercial scale and product-market fit. Over 10 consecutive quarters of accelerating IFP growth, this durable top-line expansion improves underwriting leverage and supports investment in distribution and product development.
Negative Factors
GAAP net losses continue
Ongoing GAAP losses and negative margins erode equity and limit internal capital generation. Persistent losses mean the company must rely on cash reserves, reinsurance, or external capital over multiple quarters, increasing dilution risk and constraining long-term return on equity until sustained profitability is achieved.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Rapid revenue & IFP growth
Sustained high single- to double-digit growth in in-force premium and revenue indicates successful commercial scale and product-market fit. Over 10 consecutive quarters of accelerating IFP growth, this durable top-line expansion improves underwriting leverage and supports investment in distribution and product development.
Read all positive factors
Lemonade (LMND) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.35B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.82M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.41
Revenue Growth57.13%
EPS Growth38.73%
CountryUS
Employees1,235
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Property & Casualty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.47
Shares Outstanding76,818,040
10 Day Avg. Volume1,655,170
30 Day Avg. Volume1,818,748
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.60
Price to Book (P/B)9.58
Price to Sales (P/S)6.93
P/FCF Ratio-197.38
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.94
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.96
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit10.43
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-33.76
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$59.86Price Target Upside-15.62% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)-1.7
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.20B
Lemonade Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Lemonade, Inc. provides various insurance products in the United States and Europe. Its insurance products include stolen or damaged property, and personal liability that protects its customers if they are responsible for an accident or damage to ...
How the Company Makes Money
Lemonade makes money primarily by earning insurance premium revenue on policies it underwrites and by generating investment income on the assets (float) held to pay future claims. Its core revenue stream is premiums collected from policyholders, w...
Lemonade Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down income from different insurance products, revealing which segments are driving growth and where there might be opportunities or challenges.
Breaks down income from different insurance products, revealing which segments are driving growth and where there might be opportunities or challenges.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyLemonade Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 29, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong and accelerating top-line growth (IFP +32% YoY, revenue +71% YoY), substantial expansion in gross profit (+159%) and improving profitability measures (adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed 64% and adjusted free cash flow positive). Management highlighted sustainable unit economics (LTV:CAC >3), operational leverage from AI-driven automation (IFP per employee >$1M, LAE ~6%), and material progress in key product lines (Pet IFP $500M). Key challenges remain: a relatively high gross loss/combined ratio (~138% combined per analyst), rising operating expenses and stock-based comp, ADR pressure from prior book clean-up, and remaining GAAP net losses. Given the pronounced improvements in growth, margins, cash flow, and explicit targets toward breakeven (positive EBITDA quarter expected in Q4), the positive developments materially outweigh the lingering lowlights.Positive Updates
Strong In-Force Premium Growth
In-force premium (IFP) reached $1.33 billion, up 32% year-over-year, extending an accelerating growth streak to 10 consecutive quarters.
Negative Updates
High Reported Gross Loss Ratio
Company reported a gross loss ratio of 62% in Q1; total catastrophe impact was 5% for the quarter (primarily winter storm activity). Prior period development was favorable by ~3% (driven by homeowners, multi-peril and car).
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong In-Force Premium Growth
In-force premium (IFP) reached $1.33 billion, up 32% year-over-year, extending an accelerating growth streak to 10 consecutive quarters.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Lemonade raised its full‑year top‑ and bottom‑line guidance and reiterated that it expects to deliver a positive full quarter of adjusted EBITDA in Q4 2026 and be EBITDA‑positive for the full year 2027. The updated outlook implies 32% top‑line growth in Q2 and 33% for the full year (which the company says corresponds to roughly 77% revenue growth implied by Q2 guidance and ~63% revenue growth for the full year), with Q2 gross marketing spend stepping up ~12% versus Q1 (Q1 gross spend was $54M) and total gross spend expected at about $235M for 2026. Management also said the reinsurance transition will continue to phase in (Q1 retention/seed ~30% versus a 55% peak last year, ceding ~25% in Q2 and normalizing near ~20% in Q3), reaffirmed marketing efficiency (LTV:CAC >3x), guided stock‑based comp of ~$95M for the year, and noted continued positive adjusted free cash flow (Q1 adj. FCF $17M; positive 7 of the last 8 quarters).Lemonade Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 821.10M | 737.90M | 526.50M | 429.80M | 256.70M | 128.40M |
| Gross Profit | 390.70M | 297.20M | 172.70M | 90.20M | 28.40M | 22.90M |
| EBITDA | -120.70M | -145.70M | -183.90M | -209.80M | -282.60M | -229.90M |
| Net Income | -138.90M | -165.50M | -202.20M | -236.90M | -297.80M | -241.30M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.69B | 1.93B | 1.85B | 1.63B | 1.69B | 1.51B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 386.50M | 1.11B | 1.01B | 937.70M | 1.03B | 1.07B |
| Total Debt | 179.60M | 182.10M | 107.20M | 43.10M | 35.20M | 22.30M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.17B | 1.39B | 1.26B | 924.40M | 823.90M | 522.30M |
| Stockholders Equity | 518.00M | 533.60M | 593.40M | 708.90M | 866.80M | 988.20M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 19.50M | -25.90M | -20.80M | -128.30M | -173.10M | -154.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 30.10M | -16.50M | -11.40M | -119.10M | -163.00M | -144.60M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -83.40M | -89.10M | 40.60M | 88.70M | 181.10M | -804.80M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 112.80M | 106.60M | 87.70M | 15.40M | 3.60M | 649.60M |
Lemonade Technical Analysis
Positive
70.94
Price Trends
60.76
Positive
70.32
Positive
61.69
Positive
Market Momentum
1.01
Negative
63.36
Neutral
94.58
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LMND, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 70.94 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 62.49, above the 50-day MA of 60.76, and above the 200-day MA of 61.69, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.36 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 94.58 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for LMND.
Lemonade Risk Analysis
Lemonade disclosed 68 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Lemonade reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Lemonade Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $3.19B | 18.22 | 22.79% | ― | 58.30% | 61.00% | |
72 Outperform | $117.74B | 10.30 | 35.45% | 2.20% | 13.89% | 32.56% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
58 Neutral | $861.99M | 27.78 | 10.96% | ― | 28.95% | 32.09% | |
56 Neutral | $1.98B | -74.49 | 5.08% | 3.15% | 3.36% | -55.22% | |
52 Neutral | $4.35B | -58.89 | -31.19% | ― | 57.13% | 38.73% |
* Financial Sector Average
LMND
Lemonade
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88.87%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.